Scenarios

• Scenarios can be defined as plausible descriptions of how the future may unfold based on 'if-then' propositions (EEA, 2005)

Scenarios: definition

• A representation of the initial situation, or baseline• A description of drivers for change and of

uncertainties• A description of changes, typically in time-steps• A description of the “end-state” – and image of the

future situation over a specified time-frame• A description of alternative pathways to the future

[Source: Alcamo (2008), Environmental Futures]

Scenarios:Key elements

• Academic research• In businesses to explore potential opportunities,

threats and issues for the future• To provide the platform for policy

discussions, to provide a framework to assess future policies and options, to support policy decisions

• To raise stakeholder awareness and understanding of future perspectives

Scenarios:Use

Strengths•Explore ways to achieve policy goals•Help think beyond policy cycles•Represent differing views•Consider broad range of issues and uncertainties•Easily understood by non-experts

Weaknesses•May not be taken seriously•May be misinterpreted•Sufficient resources, capacity required

Opportunities•Involving right officials can improve policy effectiveness•Government bodies can be organised to better use scenarios•Integrate into policy assessments•Deal with complexity and uncertainty

Threats•Lack of institutional capacity to use scenarios•Lack of information systems support•Poor fit with policy process•Lack of high-level support•Lack of methodologies

Scenarios:SWOT analysis

EEA website - scenarios http://www.eea.europa.eu/themes/scenarios/

Environmental Scenarios Information Portal - “EnviroWindows”/

- review of available scenarios studies relevant for environment assessment

http://scenarios.ew.eea.europa.eu/ list of scenarios studies relevant for Europe

Looking back on looking forward : a review of evaluative scenario literature

http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/looking-back-on-looking-forward-a-review-of-evaluative-scenario-literature

The Pan-European environment : glimpses into an uncertain future

http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2007_4

Western Balkans report To be added

Catalogue of scenarios (publication and in FIA online)

Under development

Scenarios: Further information:

Scenarios:Example from EEA Prelude

Five scenarios:• Great escape• Evolved society• Clustered networks• Lettuce surprise U• Big crisis

Scenarios:Example from the Millennium

Ecosystem Assessment

Four scenarios looking at global economic and political developments and their biodiversity implications

Scenarios: Example from GEO4

These graphs compare the outcomes of the four GEO4 scenarios in terms of energy use and carbon emissions

Drivers and trends

• Drivers: the social, demographic technological, economic, environmental and political developments in societies

• Trend: the general direction in which something tends to move

• Megatrends: trends and groups of trends that are expected to extend over decades, changing slowly and exerting considerable force across wide array of areas of human society

Drivers and trends

• Long term trends until 2050/2100• These drivers will influence Europe’s

environment over the coming decades• An analysis of global drivers can provide an

important tool for developing short and long-term policy responses

• Such an analysis is being used in the SOER 2010 process (Part A)

Drivers and trends:global drivers

Drivers and trends:11 global megatrends

Political megatrends

Environmental megatrends

Economic megatrends

Technological megatrends

Social megatrends

• Increasing global divergence in population trends: populations aging, growing and migrating

• Changing patterns of disease burden globally and the risk of new pandemics• Living in an urban world: spreading cities and consumption choices

• Technology developments: speed, opportunities and risks on the rise

• Continued economic growth• Global power shift – from a uni-polar to a multi-polar world • Intensified global competition for resources

• Decreasing stocks of natural resources • Increasing severity of the consequences of climate change • Increasing unsustainable environmental pollution load

• Governance and regulation: more global, more diverse

Strengths•Relevance for European environmental policy•Provide “big-picture” analyses and understand complexity and inter-connectedness •Identify European implications of global drivers and trends

Weaknesses•New area of study •A large number of uncertainties •Limited data in some areas•Megatrends by their nature are neither static nor permanent•Single set of studies

Opportunities•Expansion of analyses •Development of online resources (under FIA)

Threats•Lack of institutional capacity to make use of megatrends analysis.•Time and resource intensive to develop.

Drivers and trends:SWOT analysis

EEA Research Foresight for Environment and Sustainability>

European drivers for long term research agenda

http://ew.eea.europa.eu/research/info_resources/reports/Final_Literature_Review_Report_FINNov07_9473.pdf

EEA Research Foresight for Environment and Sustainability - Workshop on Mega-trends and Surprises

http://ew.eea.europa.eu/research/info_resources/reports/ResearchForesightSummary-presentations_and_recommendations-14-15ay07.pdf

Megatrends integration report and factsheets

To be available on FIA online

Drivers and trends: Further information