Review of Benchmark Infrastructure Costings

Presenter:

Viraj Abeykoon

24 July 2018

1 Title of Presentation goes here

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Review of Infrastructure Benchmark Costings

2 Title of Presentation goes here

01 Introduction

02 Overview of Methodology

03 Background Data Processing

04 Monte-Carlo Analysis

05 Standardising Rates

06 Example Results

Topics

Review of Infrastructure Benchmark Costings

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Introduction01

Review of Infrastructure Benchmark Costings

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The project aims to achieve:

> Streamlined delivery of PSPs and ICPs

> Provide accurate Benchmark Cost Estimates with a high

degree of confidence

6 Infrastructure categories were investigated:

> Roads and Intersections

> Bridges

> Culverts

> Sporting Pavilions

> Sports and Recreational Fields

> Community Centers

Introduction01

Review of Infrastructure Benchmark Costings

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Overview of

Methodology

02

Review of Infrastructure Benchmark Costings

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Collate VPA DataExtract Statistical

PropertiesRun Monte-Carlo

Process

Prepare representative drawings and

extract quantities

Obtain Total Project Costs for

Infrastructure Items

Obtain two types of Rates

Overview of Methodology02

Review of Infrastructure Benchmark Costings

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Background Data

Processing

03

Review of Infrastructure Benchmark Costings

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Create a database of previously adopted rates

Split to various infrastructure items

Checked for Regional/ Topographical variations

Estimates with insufficient granularity were discarded

Background Data Processing 03

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Background Data Processing

> Extracting Statistical Properties

Average Rate for each element

Standard Deviation for each element

> Regional Variances and Topographical

Variances were not observed in the

data.

> Extracted costs modeled to follow a

normal distribution

Example

03

50 52.5 55 57.5 60

Item Estimate 1 Estimate 2 Estimate 3 Mean Standard

Deviation

Kerb (per

meter)

55 52 60 55.67 4.041

Drainage Pipe

(per meter)

260 250 300 270 26.458

Review of Infrastructure Benchmark Costings

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Monte-Carlo Analysis04

Review of Infrastructure Benchmark Costings

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> Monte-Carlo analysis is a world-renowned tool used to

simulate a range of possibilities

> In this instance, a range of infrastructure costs

> Results can be used to provide Probabilistic Estimates

> Cardno conducted 200,000 simulations

> Quantities for above simulations were extracted from

representative drawings

Monte-Carlo Analysis04

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Monte-Carlo Analysis04

Item Rate ($/m) Quantity (m) Total ($)

Kerb 56.00 10 560.00

Drainage 265.00 10 2650.00

TOTAL 3210.00

Review of Infrastructure Benchmark Costings

50 52.5 55 57.5 60

%

230 250 270 290 310

%

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Monte-Carlo Analysis

Repeating this process over 200,000

iterations provides a distribution of

possible project costs.

P50 and P90 Totals were selected.

04

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

24

300

00

25

410

00

26

520

00

27

630

00

28

740

00

29

850

00

30

960

00

32

070

00

33

180

00

34

290

00

35

400

00

36

510

00

37

620

00

38

730

00

39

840

00

40

950

00

42

060

00

43

170

00

44

280

00

45

390

00

46

500

00

Fre

qu

en

cy

Project Cost

Cost Frequency Distribution

Review of Infrastructure Benchmark Costings

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Standardising Rates 05

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Standardising Rates

> Obtained 2 sets of rates for each item

producing P90 and P50 Monte-Carlo

totals

> Based on ‘Inversing’ Normal Distribution

of rates

> Example Monte Carlo result is P90 = $3,420

05

Item P90 Rate

($/m)

Quantity (m) Total ($)

Kerb 57.00 10 570.00

Drainage 285.00 10 2850.00

TOTAL 3420.00

Review of Infrastructure Benchmark Costings

50 52.5 55 57.5 60

%

230 250 270 290 310

%

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Example Results06

Review of Infrastructure Benchmark Costings

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Example Results06

Review of Infrastructure Benchmark Costings

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Example Results06

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Example Results06

Review of Infrastructure Benchmark Costings

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Example Results06

Review of Infrastructure Benchmark Costings

Thank you

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