Resultados&discusión hondurasen

National and Regional GLOBIO Modeling results

Denisse McLean

Belize, August 2010.

46%

11%4%

2%

37%

Modeling Work in Central America

Colaboration between Central American Commission (CCAD) – IRBIO - PBL

In line with the commitments adopted with CBD

First regional evaluation built upon national individual evaluations

Objectives:

To implement a scientifically supported methodology in the Central American region

To adapt a global methodology to a regional – national context

To integrate the topic of biodiversity in the policy making process

To develop local biodiversity modeling capacity

Modeling Work in Central America

Regional team coordination

Establishment of the regional advance team in charge of the first modeling exercise:◦ MSA value revision team◦ Scenario development team◦ Modelation team

Team training in the methodology

Coordination of linked work

Local capacity development Training for national

environmental authorities’ technicians◦ First basic GLOBIO modeling

methodology workshop◦ Second advanced CLUE land

use modeling workshop Input information

exchange for regional modeling

Inputs

• Spatial inputs▫National land use maps▫Road maps▫Population density maps▫Ecosystem maps

• Team information▫Model parameters▫Scenarios▫MSA values evaluation

• GLOBIO impact categories per pressure

Scenarios considered

Baseline

• Population, migration, GDP, exports and tertiary sector increase

• Primary sector reduction

• Constant effects

ALIDES

• Economic sector transformation

• Reforestation and sustainable production promotion

• Increasing effects

Free Trade

• Increased access to markets

• Agricultural product exports

• Fuels and processed goods imports

• Decreasing effects

Assumptions Policy options based on Baseline scenario

projections Independency between options Political and climatic stability

Variables related to land use change were included

The values of some variables were approximated

Scenario figures Support information

◦ Data series◦ Projections◦ Files◦ Articles

Sistematic lack of information for every country and every land use

Obtained products National and regional

maps Aggregated figures Reports Data bases Developed local

capacity

Gracia

s a D

iosColón

Olancho

Atlántida

Yoro

Comayagua

Fco M

orazá

n

Islas d

e la Bahía

Intibucá

Lempira

La Paz

El Para

ísoCopán

Cortés

Ocotepeque

Choluteca

Santa Bárb

araValle

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

46%

11%

4%

2%

37%MSA RemanenteInfraestructuraFragmentaciónDeposición NCambio ClimáticoUso de Suelo

Regional Results

Regional Results

48.09%

9.47%5.80%2.54%

34.10%

Current State

MSA RemanenteInfraestructuraFragmentaciónDeposición NCambio ClimáticoUso de Suelo

Regional Results

41.64%

7.90%4.78%4.16%

41.52%

Baseline Scenario


Regional Results

42.77%

8.29%

4.78%4.15%

40.01%

ALIDES Scenario


Regional Results

40.56%

7.73%4.76%3.91%

43.05%

Free Trade Scenario


Regional Results - PA

73.00%

6.39%

5.43%

2.42%

12.76%

Protected Areas - Current State



66.19%6.17%

5.02%

3.85%

18.77%

Protected Areas – Baseline Scenario



65.07%

6.13%

5.00%

3.84%

19.96%

Protected Areas – ALIDES Scenario



65.77%5.85%

5.00%

3.60%

19.78%

Protected Areas – Free Trade Scenario


National Results

LAND USECurrent State

Baseline Scenario2030 ALIDES 2030 Free Trade 2030

% Var. % Var. % Var.

Primary Forest 24.39% 13.69% -10.69 13.65% -10.74 13.42% -10.96Secondary Forest 24.96% 14.02% -10.94 18.32% -6.64 15.28% -9.68Extensive Agriculture 38.08% 48.77% 10.69 48.70% 10.61 28.05% -10.03Intensive Agriculture 1.75% 13.25% 11.50 13.28% 11.53 18.68% 16.93Livestock Grazing 9.50% 8.95% -0.55 4.74% -4.76 23.24% 13.74Others 1.33% 1.33% 0.00 1.33% 0.00 1.33% 0.00

National Results

National ResultsCurrent State Baseline Scenario

ALIDES Scenario Free Trade Scenario

Current StateBaseline Scenario 2030 ALIDES 2030 Free Trade 2030


Remaining Biodiversity

MSA 46.37% 36.73% -9.64 37.03% -9.34 39.17% -7.20

Loss per pressure

Infrastructure 11.13% 6.15% -4.98 6.09% -5.04 8.73% -2.40

Fragmentation 4.11% 2.93% -1.18 2.65% -1.46 3.11% -1.00

N Deposition 0.00% 0.00% 0.00 0.00% 0.00 0.00% 0.00

Climate Change 1.88% 4.31% 2.43 4.32% 2.44 4.25% 2.37

Land Use 36.50% 49.87% 13.37 49.91% 13.41 44.75% 8.25

National Results

PROTECTED AREASCurrent State

Baseline Scenario 2030 ALIDES 2030 Free Trade 2030


Remaining Biodiversity

MSA 46.37% 36.73% -9.64 37.03% -9.34 39.17% -7.20

Loss per pressure

Infrastructure 11.13% 6.15% -4.98 6.09% -5.04 8.73% -2.40

Fragmentation 4.11% 2.93% -1.18 2.65% -1.46 3.11% -1.00

N Deposition 0.00% 0.00% 0.00 0.00% 0.00 0.00% 0.00

Climate Change 1.88% 4.31% 2.43 4.32% 2.44 4.25% 2.37

Land Use 36.50% 49.87% 13.37 49.91% 13.41 44.75% 8.25

National Results

Following Steps In the countries:

◦ Report revision◦ Improvement of information quality◦ Comparison of results between countries◦ Embedding of results in political processes◦ Evaluation of new scenarios

PARCA III FTA European Union Aquatic ecosystem module

Following Steps In the Project:

◦ Model transfer and follow up◦ Result presentation to interested stakeholders◦ Analysis of policy implications◦ Tool improvements

Primer ejercicio metodológico. No se trata de un análisis exhaustivo,

definitivo, de nivel científico de precisión. Existe información más actualizada y/o

validada que no pudo ser integrada. Por lo tanto, los resultados no se consideran

validados ni oficializados por los países.

Report clarifications

The objective of the exercise was to build the first preliminar approximation to the state and trends in biodiversity in terms of the Mean Species Abundance from the data available at the moment of model application according to the sources consulted and to deliver these models to the countries.


The results with provide the countries with a valuable tool to support their environmental management and decision making. The models can be used as an instrument to stimulate discussion and to integrate the topic of biodiversity into other sectors through the consideration, planning and design of policy alternatives.


Countries are expected to maintain the models by improving results with updated information and by evaluating new scenarios and policy options according to emerging needs, possibilities and interests in each country or within the whole region.


Is the quality of the input information enough to derive conclusions from results?

What conclusions can be derived for national and regional policies?

Which applications can be made with the results and the models?

Points to discuss

How to keep the modeling capacity in the countries?

Which political processes would be the most adequate to embed the models?

Which aspects to improve? F.E. Quality of input information, MSA values, validation

Is it necessary to have a follow up?

In which areas should the follow up be implemented?

Points to discuss

List the current policies in the country that impact positively or negatively biodiversity conservation, protection and use

List the upcoming policies in the country that could impact positively or negatively biodiversity conservation, protection and use

Points to discuss

Questions and Comments

Thank you

Documents

Resultados&discusión hondurasen