Other Types of Political Violence: Riots and

RepressionClass 4 - August 13

Review: Definition of a political riot

● “intense, sudden, but not entirely unplanned attack by a group of civilians against members of another distinguishable group”

● Goals vary based on riot, depend on organization

● Often have ethnic/religious overtones.

Process of riot inception

● Underlying intergroup tension.● Triggering event● News travels to affected group● Group members form gangs and attack

group perpetrator of trigger. ○ People are killed based on their ascription or beliefs.

Riot Characteristics● Aggressors enter state of frenzy

and target out-group for killing.● Killing is often grotesque and

symbolic.● Victims chosen based on group

affinity.● Arson used to displace people,

businesses.● Opportunists use riot as cover for

looting.

Recent Examples of Political RiotsChina - Xinjiang (Uyghurs target Han Chinese)Kyrgyzstan - Osh (Kyrgyz target UzbeksNigeria - widespread, many ethnic groupsIndia - Assam, Uttar Pradesh (Muslims vs. Hindus)

Causes of Political Riots

● Brass: Organized by politicians for nation-building

● Horowitz: Ad hoc, underlying tensions.● Wilkinson: Electoral manipulation● Others: Land disputes, refugee flows, prior

violence.

Brass: Riots are planned and deliberate

● Underlying conditions for political riots must be present.

● Individuals in society: ‘tenders’ fan the flame of violence to exploit outcomes for own gains.○ Mobilize gangs, etc.

● Ex: Riots organized by BJP to galvanize Hindu nationalists and win elections.

Horowitz: Ad hoc organization

● Ethnic tensions are necessary for violence.● Tensions prerequisite to situation where

small spark will set off fighting.● Rumors of violence or other triggers foment

anger among the targeted group.● Targeted group briefly congregates, leaders

emerge, begin attacks.

Horowitz: Lull between trigger and riot

● A short break between triggering event and riot allows for some organization.

● Ad hoc, loose organization is beneficial.

● Plans are improvised.

Wilkinson: Electoral Manipulation

Wilkinson: Electoral Manipulation

● In India, politicians initiate riots for electoral purposes.○ Create wedge issues between low-caste Hindus and

Muslims.● Highlights politically-organized processions

through each other’s neighborhoods.○ Leads to back and forth.

Wilkinson: Results

● How does Wilkinson test hypothesis?

● What are the measures of political inflammation?

● Are these measures convincing?

Other explanations

● Struggle for land

● Demographic shifts/parity

● Refugee resentment

● Violence begets violence

‘Miss’ World Riots in NigeriaRiot Case

Background● Nigeria is a multi-

ethnic society. ● North is mostly

Muslim, south is mostly Christian

● Kaduna state is majority Muslim

● Riots in Kaduna state in 2000.

What happened?

● Trigger: Newspaper article

● Protests -> attacks by Muslims -> retaliation by Christians.

● Political leaders made threatening statements before riots.

Discussion

● What leads to riots? What role do politicians play? Are underlying causes economic or ethnic or both?

● What is the best explanation for ‘Miss World Riots’?

Review: Definition of repression

● Physical sanctions against opponents of regime to deter further anti-government activities (paraphrasing Goldstein).

● Involves jailing, extrajudicial killing, preventing organization, etc.

● Goal: Prevent opposition to the government.

Selectorate Theory: Governments don’t need to make you happy

Citizens

SelectorateWinning Coalition

Residents

Types of Government

● Absolute Monarchy○ Small Selectorate, small winning coalition.

● Rigged Autocracy:○ Large Selectorate, small winning coalition.

● Democracy:○ Large Selectorate, Large Winning Coalition

Government are accountable based on coalition size, composition● Small Winning Coalition: Private goods to

supporters, cleptocracy, low accountability to citizens.

● Large Winning Coalition: Public goods to supporters, low corruption, high accountability to citizens.

Governments prefer not to repress and to stay in power.● Which do they prefer more?

Reasons for Repression

● Dissent from anti-government opposition

● Past successes in repression.

● Non-Democracy.○ Why?

Davenport: Domestic Democratic Peace● Democracies repress less due to two

features:

○ Voice○ Veto

● Voice > Veto● Democracy reduces repression during

conflict.

What’s missing?

What’s missing?

Autocracies vary in repressive behavior too:

Indifferent leaders can get overthrown.

Repression also varies in autocracies

● Autocracies don’t always want to repress.○ Would increase risk of overthrow.

● Some create democracy-lite institutions (Gandhi 2007).

● Pay off some opposition, oppress the rest (Lust-Okar 2006).

● Resource rich autocrats would rather pay off opponents (Dunning 2008).

Repression in AzerbaijanRepression Case

Background● Former Soviet state● Oil rich● Ruled by Aliyev

family.● Some civil society

and democratic competition.

● No free elections.

Methods of suppressing opposition

Methods of suppressing opposition

● Imprisonment and harassment

Methods of suppressing opposition

● Imprisonment and harassment

● Media suppression

Methods of suppressing opposition

● Imprisonment and harassment

● Media suppression

● NGO suppression

Methods of suppressing opposition

● Imprisonment and harassment

● Media suppression

● NGO suppression

● Restrictions on protest and assembly.

What explains variation in repression across

countries?What explains repression in Azerbaijan in

particular?