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Prospects for World Agriculture Baseline Projections to 2014. Ronald Trostle Economic Research Service U.S. Department of Agriculture Foro de Perspectiva Agroindustrial, 2005 27 y 28 de Julio, 2005. Buenos Aires, Argentina. Presentation Outline. Summary of projections Main assumptions - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Prospects for World AgricultureBaseline Projections to 2014
Ronald TrostleEconomic Research Service
U.S. Department of Agriculture
Foro de Perspectiva Agroindustrial, 2005 27 y 28 de Julio, 2005. Buenos Aires, Argentina
28 July, 2005 Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
Presentation Outline
• Summary of projections
• Main assumptions
• Developments influencing world agriculture
• Projections for farm commodities
• Uncertainties
• Conclusion
28 July, 2005 Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
USDA Baseline Projections
• 10-year projections for major farm commodities - Supply, demand, trade, and prices.
• Projections based on:- Economic models
> Crop-area allocation model - for the USA> Models for individual commodity markets in the USA> Linked Country Model (“Linker”) ( Links 23 commodity markets in 39 countries & regions )
- Analysis and judgments by commodity analysts, country analysts and policy analysts.
• Assumptions: - Basline projections based on many assumption- The baseline is not a forecast; but a projection of what might occur under a specific set of assumptions
• Projections made November, 2004.
28 July, 2005 Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Production
Yield
Area Harv
Percap Use
Population
Index: 1975 = 100
Peak
Peak
Total World Grain & Oilseeds1 Area, Yield, Production, & Percap Consumption; and Population
Exponential trendgrowth rates: 1975-95 95-04 06-14Prod 1.6 0.7 .09Yields 1.8 1.3 0.8Area -0.26 -0.59 0.11Percap Use 0.08 -0.04 -0.18Populatio 1.68 1.23 1.05
1 Total oilseeds = soybeans + rapeseed + sunflowers
28 July, 2005 Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
100
150
200
250
300
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Global Meat1
Production & Percap Consumption; and Population
Index: 1975 = 100
Per capita Consumption
Population
Production
1Meat = Beef + Pork + Poultry
28 July, 2005 Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
Main Assumptions
28 July, 2005 Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
World Developed UnitedStates
EU-25 FSU Developing
1971-80 1981-90 1991-2000 2001-14
Strong Economic GrowthGDP growth rates, by decade averages
Percent
Source: USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2014, February 2005.Economic Research Service, USDA.
28 July, 2005 Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
0
1
2
3
4
1970's 1980's 1990's (2002-2014)
Population Growth Rates Decline (Percent by Decade)
Percent
Developed
World
MiddleEast
AsiaDeveloping
Latin America
Africa
28 July, 2005 Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
0
5
10
15
World Developed United States Developing
1971-80
1981-90
1991-2000
2001-14
Inflation Rates Generally Decline
Percent
28 July, 2005 Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
60
80
100
120
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
U.S. Dollar Projected to Strengthen1
Index values: 2000=100
1/ Real U.S. agricultural trade-weighted dollar exchange rate, using U.S. agricultural export weights.
28 July, 2005 Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Crude Oil Prices
$ per barrel
Refiners' acquisition cost of crude, imports
Refiners' acquisition cost, adjusted for inflation
28 July, 2005 Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
Policy Assumptions
• Domestic agricultural and trade policies in most countries either do not change, or they continue to evolve along their current path.
• All countries fully comply with all existing bilateral and multilateral agreements.
28 July, 2005 Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
Other Global Influences
• Technical developments enhance productivity:- Biotechnology increased farm productivity- Developments in transportation, processing, energy use- Increased availability of data and information
• Globalization: Markets more integrated from farm to table.• Environmental Policy: Will influence farm production.• Renewable energy: Will reallocate production resources.• Food Safety: Will affect production, processing &
marketing.• New producers exporting to niche markets: Will mean
increased competition. • Aging World Population: Will change eating habits.
28 July, 2005 Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
Changes in Food Consumption
• Greater consumption of:- Fruits & Vegetables- Vegetable Oils- Processed Cereal Products- Meats & Dairy Products
• Less consumption of:- Staple grains - rice in Asia, corn in Mexico & Africa- Low-quality grain varieties (switching to higher quality)
(high-quality varieties may have lower yields)
- Roots & tubers • Feed demand increases:
import demand for feed grains & protein meals
28 July, 2005 Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
Oilseeds, Grains and Cotton
28 July, 2005 Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
50
75
100
125
150
175
1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014
Global trade: Wheat, Coarse Grains, and Soybeans & Soybean products
Million metric tons
Soybeans and soybean products 1/
Coarsegrains
1/ Soybeans and soybean meal in soybean-equivalent units.
Wheat
28 July, 2005 Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
0
20
40
60
80
100
84/85 89/90 94/95 99/00 04/05 09/10 14/15
S. American Exports: Grain & Soybeans
Million metric tons
Oilseeds
Rice
Coarse grains
Wheat
28 July, 2005 Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
0
20
40
60
80
100
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Global exports: Soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil
Soybeans and soybean meal, million metric tons
Soybeans
Soybean meal
Soybean oil
Soybean oil, million metric tons
28 July, 2005 Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Other
China & Hong Kong
N. Africa & M. East
L.Amer & Mexico
East Asia
European Union 1/
Global Soybean Imports
Million metric tons
1/ European Union-15 prior to 1999, EU-25 thereafter. Excludes intra-EU trade.
28 July, 2005 Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Other
FSU & OE 1/
N. Africa & Middle East
L. America & Mexico
East Asia
European Union 2/
Global soybean meal imports
Million metric tons
1/ Former Soviet Union and Other Europe; prior to 1999, includes Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia.2/ European Union-15 prior to 1999, EU-25 thereafter. Excludes intra-EU trade.
28 July, 2005 Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Rest of w orld
Other Asia 1/
India
China
N Africa & Middle East
Latin America 2/
Global soybean oil imports
Million metric tons
1/ Asia less India and China. 2/ Includes Mexico.
28 July, 2005 Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
89/90 94/95 99/00 04/05 09/10 14/15
Global Exports of Soybeans & Products1
Million metric tons
Brazil
United States
Argentina
Other
1Soybeans + bean equivalent of soymeal.
28 July, 2005 Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1994 1999 2004 2009 2014
China
Other
S & SE Asia 1/
Latin Am 2/
NAFTA
Afr & M East
East Asia
Global Corn Imports
Million metric tons
1/ Includes Oceania. 2/ Excludes Mexico which is part of NAFTA.
28 July, 2005 Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
0
3
6
9
12
15
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
0
3
6
9
12
15
China: Corn Imports and Exports
Million metric tons
Exports
Imports
28 July, 2005 Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
0
20
40
60
80
100
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Other 1/
China
Argentina
United States
Global Corn ExportsMillion metric tons
1/ Republic of South Africa, Brazil, EU, former Soviet Union, and others.
28 July, 2005 Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Other 1/ FSU & OE 2/ China Africa & Middle East NAFTA Latin America East Asia European Union 3/
Global Wheat Imports
Million metric tons
1/ Predominantly South and Southeast Asia. 2/ Former Soviet Union and Other Europe; prior to 1999, includes Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia.3/ European Union-15 prior to 1999, EU-25 thereafter. Excludes intra-EU trade.
28 July, 2005 Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
0
25
50
75
100
125
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
United States
FSU & OE 1/
Argentina
Australia
Canada
Other
European Union 2/
Global Wheat Exports
Million metric tons
1/ Former Soviet Union and Other Europe; prior to 1999, includes Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia.2/ European Union-15 prior to 1999, EU-25 thereafter. Excludes intra-EU trade.
28 July, 2005 Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
0
10
20
30
40
1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014
China
South Asia 3/
Southeast Asia 2/
Other
Latin America 1/
East Asia
EU, FSU, & OE 4/
Global Cotton Imports
Million bales
1/ Includes Mexico. 2/ Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.3/ Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan. 4/ European Union, former Soviet Union, and Other Europe.
28 July, 2005 Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
0
10
20
30
40
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Other
Former Soviet Union
South America
Australia
Sub-Saharan Africa
United States
Global Cotton Exports
Million bales
28 July, 2005 Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
Livestock and Meats
28 July, 2005 Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014
North Africa & Middle East European Union 2/ Russia East Asia NAFTA
Beef and Veal Imports: Major Countries1
Million metric tons
1/ Selected importers.2/ European Union-15 prior to 1999, EU-25 thereafter. Excludes intra-EU trade.
28 July, 2005 Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
0
1
2
3
4
5
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
United States Mexico Russia China East Asia
Pork Imports: Major Countries1
Million metric tons
1/ Selected importers.
28 July, 2005 Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
0
1
2
3
4
5
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
East Asia
China
Russia
Saudi Arabia
EU 2/
Mexico
Poultry Imports: Major Countries1
Million metric tons
1/ Selected importers.2/ European Union-15 prior to 1999, EU-25 thereafter. Excludes intra-EU trade.
28 July, 2005 Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
0
4
9
13
17
21
26
1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014
Meat Exports from Major Exporters
Million metric tons
Beef & veal
Pork
Poultry
28 July, 2005 Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
S. Amercia: Meat Exports
Million metric tons
Poultry
Pork
Beef
28 July, 2005 Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
Uncertainties - General
• Economic growth: Will it be less rapid than projected?
• Energy prices: Will petroleum & natural gas prices drop from current highs -- or rise even further? What will be impact on fertilizer and fuel costs?
• Diseases: Will Avian influenza, BSE, FMD and Asian rust spread to other countries?
• Supply response: How fast can world ag production respond to future shocks in production?
• Additional crop land: How much can be brought into production -- on a sustainable basis?
• Water shortages: Agriculture competition with residential, commercial and industrial demand?
28 July, 2005 Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
Uncertainties - Country Specific
• Argentina: Expansion in crop area? Productivity growth? Expansion in cattle feed-lot sector?
• Brasil: Expansion in crop area? Infrastructure improvements (transportation & on-farm storage)?
• China: Becomes a net corn importer? Soybean imports continue to rise? Possible revaluation of Yuan? Water shortages constrain farm production?
• Eastern Europe: Becomes the bread basket for Europe and a major exporter?
• Asian Rice Consumption: Trend in per capita consumption continues to decline?
28 July, 2005 Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
Conclusions
28 July, 2005 Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014
Farm Prices1
Corn, Wheat, and Soybean
$ per bushel
Corn
Wheat
Soybeans
1Nominal U.S. farm prices
28 July, 2005 Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1994 1999 2004 2009 2014
Livestock Prices1
$ per hundredweight
Beef cattle
Broilers
Hogs
1Nominal U.S. prices
28 July, 2005 Prospects for World Agriculture: USDA/ERS
Conclusions
• Demand: Strong income growth in developing countries and increasing population increases import demand for bulk commodities and high-value products.
• Production: Slower producivity growth, but still nearly sufficient to maintain global level of per capita production.
• Trade: Continued growth in global trade in most agriculture commodities. But trade continues to be very competitive.
• Prices: Prices for farm products, after adjusting for inflation, will decline more slowly than in past decades.
Prospects for World AgricultureBaseline Projections to 2014
USDA-ERS baseline briefing room
http://www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/baseline
Gracias, Obrigado, y Thank you
Ronald TrostleEconomic Research Service
U.S. Department of Agriculture