Baseline emission projections for the revision of the Gothenburg protocol

Markus AmannCentre for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM)International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

EMEP Steering BodyGeneva, Sept. 8-10, 2008

Future air pollution emissions in the EU-27depend on climate policies

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SO2NOxPM

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-15% NOx

-12% PM

PRIMES energy scenariowith climate measures

(-20% CO2 in 2020)

Business-as-usual national energy projections(+3% CO2 in 2020)

Estimated loss in statistical life expectancy (EU-27)due to the exposure to anthropogenic PM2.5 in 2020 (Source: IIASA’s GAINS model)

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PRIMES energy scenariowith climate measures

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Business-as-usual national energy projections(+3% CO2 in 2020)

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National energy projections (+3% CO2 in 2020) Illustrative projections meeting the EU climatetarget (-20% CO2 in 2020)

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Indicative costs for changes in the energy system to meet climate and energy targets Costs for further measures to achieve the targets of the EU Thematic Strategy on Air PollutionCosts for implementing current air pollution legislation

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National energy projections (+3% CO2 in 2020) Illustrative projections meeting the EU climatetarget (-20% CO2 in 2020)

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Indicative costs for changes in the energy system to meet climate and energy targets Costs for further measures to achieve the targets of the EU Thematic Strategy on Air PollutionCosts for implementing current air pollution legislation

Emission control costs to meet the EU air quality and climate targetsEU-27, 2020 (Source: IIASA’s GAINS model)

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National energy projections (+3% CO2 in 2020) Illustrative projections meeting the EU climatetarget (-20% CO2 in 2020)

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Indicative costs for changes in the energy system to meet climate and energy targets Costs for further measures to achieve the targets of the EU Thematic Strategy on Air PollutionCosts for implementing current air pollution legislation

Business as usualNational energy projections

(+3% CO2 in 2020)

PRIMES energy scenario with climate measures

(-20% CO2 in 2020)

€20 bn/yr

Findings have been reported in CIAM Reports to the Working Group on Strategies and Review

Activity projections presented to WGSR42

Decision of WGSR41: Energy projections should include climate policies.

National projections with climate policies are currently unavailable.

Activity projections presented in CIAM Report 2/2008 to WGSR42:EU-27:• PRIMES energy projection that meets the targets of the

EU Climate and Energy Package (as in NEC Report#6)• National agricultural projections submitted to CIAM

Other Parties:• Latest available projections available at CIAM• Most date back to 1996• No responses received to requests from WGSR

Baseline CO2 emissions

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Baseline emissionsrelative to 2000

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SO2 NOx PM2.5 NH3 VOC

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Baseline EU Baseline Other Parties Baseline ECE

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Environmental impacts

Impact indicators:• Loss in statistical life expectancy attributable to PM2.5• Ecosystems with nitrogen deposition in excess of critical

loads (using ecosystem-specific deposition calculation)• Forest and catchment areas with acid deposition in excess

of critical loads • Cases of premature deaths attributable to ozone

Assumed boundary conditions:• Emission from ships: without recent MARPOL proposal• Hemispheric ozone: +2.4 ppb in 2020• Five-years meteorological conditions

Baseline impact indicatorsrelative to 2000

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Life expectancy loss Eutrophication Acidification Forests Acidification Water Ozone health

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Baseline impacts calculated for 2020

Acidification: Forest area > CL Acidification: Freshwater catchment > CL

PM2.5: Loss in stat. life expectancy Eutrophication: Ecosystems area > CL

Uncertainties and sensitivities

• Baseline projections are sensitive towards– Underlying activity pathways:

Assumptions about employed activity pathways have received only limited review by Parties

– Assumed implementation of national legislation: Conservative assumptions have been used for EECCA countries.

• Assumptions on boundary conditions– Implementation of additional measures for ships could result in

significant lower environmental impacts

• If baseline projections should serve as starting point for negotiations, above assumptions must be shared by Parties.

Uncertainties and sensitivities

• Baseline projections are sensitive towards– Underlying activity pathways:

Assumptions about employed activity pathways have received only limited review by Parties

– Assumed implementation of national legislation: Conservative assumptions have been used for EECCA countries.

• Assumptions on boundary conditions– Implementation of additional measures for ships could result in

significant lower environmental impacts

• If baseline projections should serve as starting point for negotiations, above assumptions must be shared by Parties.

Two emission scenarios for non-EU countries that have not ratified the Gothenburg Protocol

• Baseline projection: – No add-on emission controls except for TSP from stationary

sources

• “With measures” scenario:– FGD for new and retrofit of 50% of old plants in 2020– Low sulphur fuels (1% heavy fuel oil, 0.1% light fuel oil, 0.05%

diesel

– Industrial processes: -50% SO2 , -40% NOx, and current EU PM emission standards for new Member States

– Primary NOx measures for boilers

– Euro 4/IV for diesel and gasoline vehicles– Improved electrostatic precipitators for large boilers

Emission control potentials for SO2

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Russia Ukraine Other Parties

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Remaining emissions FGD solid fuels, retrofit FGD solid fuels, new FGD oil, new Industrial processes

Low S heavy fuel oil Low S light heating oil Low S diesel 2000

Emission control potentials for NOx

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Remaining emissions Primary measures Industrial processes Euro-4/IV Diesel Euro4/IV Gasoline

Emission control potentials for PM

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Remaining emissions Solid fuels in households Upgrade of ESP

Industrial processes Euro IV for heavy duty vehicles Euro4 for passenger cars

Two-wheelers

Emission projections for non-EU PartiesBaseline projection and “with measures” scenario

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Baseline With measures

Loss in statistical life expectancydue to anthropogenic PM2.5

Baseline projection 2020 With measures scenario 2020

Potentials of major control measures compared to 2020 baseline projection

• FGD for new plants: -40% SO2

• 0.05% S diesel: -10% SO2

• Euro-4 for passenger cars: -13% NOx, -2% PM2.5• Euro-IV for heavy duty vehicles: -8% NOx, -4% PM2.5

• EU PM emission limit values for new Member States for stationary sources: -16% PM2.5

• In 2020, implementation of these measures would reduce health impacts from PM by 40 percent.

• In addition, major health improvements would result from a phase-out of solid fuels in households

Revised TFIAM workplan 2009after WGSR42 meeting

• Tutorial workshop on baseline scenarios: Feb 2009

• TFIAM meeting on 2050 aspirational scenarios: Feb 2009

• Deadline for submissions of national baseline scenarios: May 31, 2009

• TFIAM meeting on national baseline scenarios: June 2009

• Presentation of GAINS baseline scenarios to WGSR: Sep 2009

• Policy analysis at CIAM: Oct-Nov 2009

• TFIAM meeting on target setting & sensitivity: Dec 2009

• Presentation of policy scenarios to EB: Dec 2009

Assumptions on boundary conditions for which advice from EMEP SB would be appreciated

• Background ozone 2000-2020: +2.4 ppb?

• 5 yr meteorological conditions (1996-1997-1998-2000-2003) for source-receptor relationships?

• Other suggestions?