Proposal Neg Campaigns

Influence of Negative Campaigns on Public Opinion 1

Running Head: INFLUENCE OF NEGATIVE CAMPAINGS ON PUBLIC OPINION

The Influence of Attitude on Public Decisions:

How Negative Campaigns affect the Public Opinions

Andrew Ciccone

Quantitative Methods

PROPOSAL

Baruch College


Purpose

Credibility, reputation, identity, and image may be irreparably damaged from negative

campaigning. This study provides useful insights for political advisors and the communications

industry to consider.

The Attitude-Toward-The-Ad Model assumes that favorable reactions to an advertisement are

projected onto the brands featured in the advertisement (Muehling, 1987). The premises of this

proposal will apply the criterion of related theory to determine whether the severity of negative

statements influence public attitudes towards the person(s) making such statements and those

who are being criticized. The topic of study is the impact and affect, if any, of negative

campaigning in politics.

Advertisers and communicators often have concerns about unintended perceptions and

interpretations of comparative advertising and or other communicative campaigns. This

consideration is relevant as there are varied opinions on mentioning competitors in your

messages, and if it is prudent to do so.

Other responses to comparative campaign formats regarding beliefs about claims, credibility of

sources, could have a direct and negative effect on the public’s perceptions of those criticized.

The severity of statements towards others may have lasting reputational damage significantly

influencing attitudes the public has towards those criticized.


Literature Review

The interest in the political process at times is apathetic, however there is a real desire for many

citizens to participate and support various issues and candidates. Various internal and external

influences affect Americans attitudes and beliefs on a local level in their communities and on a

national scale, on opinions formulated. The presidential candidate’s beliefs influence the

public’s attitudes as voters indentify with an individual candidate symbolically or may favor a

candidate based on their position(s) on various issues. Most people choose candidates

combining the candidates personal attributes with their positions on various issues.

Subjective norms may predict behavioral intentions however societal pressures may have less of

an influence on behavioral intentions than the attitude construct. In other words, how

individual’s processes information from media, interpersonal sources, and the intellectual

community (attitudes) typically prevail over societal norms.

Intentions are decisions to act in a particular way. Eagly and Chaiken (1993, p. 168) note that

intentions are a “psychological construct distinct from attitude, [which] represents the person’s

motivation in the sense of his or her conscious plan to exert effort to carry out behavior”. In

applications of The Theory of Reasoned Action TRA, researchers have operationalized

intentions as either the likelihood that one will perform a behavior (Koballa, 1988) or as an

approximation of performing a behavior in the future. The model of goal directed behavior

posits that attitudes, positive and negative emotions, and subjective norms influence intentions

through desires. There is a connection between personal attitudes and being influenced by

subjective norms that may illicit an individual to take action on an issue. The hypothesized

model recognizes that the connection is affective and does encompass emotions, suggesting that

eagerness encompasses one’s level of interest and intensity of desire to act.


Literature Review (Cont’d)

Eagerness to perform behavior reflects their desire to take action and incorporates each person’s

goal(s) and internal motivations. Consumer’ motivations to act are measured in the context of

thinking about engaging in an activity. Much research in marketing, consumer behavior, and

psychology has suggested that consumers vary in the degree of eagerness to engage in a new

behavior (Bargh, 2002).

Attitudes toward performing a behavior are generally viewed as assessments of an individual’s

propensity towards a behavior (Finlay, Trafimow, & Villarreal, 2002).

A person’s beliefs that certain individuals or organizations (referents), believe how an individual

or group should perform, or refrain from culturally defined behavior. Norms are a function of

various types of societal beliefs, determined by the culmination of the experiences and influences

of a person’s beliefs and motivations to adhere to a subjective norm. Normative beliefs are

individual’s beliefs that underlie the norms that pervade in one’s reality. Attitude toward a

specific behavior and subjective norms have been shown to account for much variance in

intention to perform a specific behavior (Finlay et al., 2002).

Involvement is the motivational quality “to move forward to engage in a new behavior”

(Warrington & Shim, 2000).

Researchers have found that the closer match between one’s self-concept and a proposed

behavior, the more motivated a consumer is to act (Charng, Piliavin, & Callero, 1988;

Warrington & Shim, 2000). Rapaport and Orbell (2000, p. 320) examine behavioral intentions,

“If a person indentifies with a specific role or action, they are more likely to express a positive

attitude towards the action, which in turn may act as a predictor of intention.” Both Higie and

Feick (1989) and Kapferer and Laurent (1993) conceptualize involvement as having a self-


Literature Review (Cont’d)

expressive component. The extent to which one’s choice or position on an issue tells others

about you. In contrast, self-concept motivates individuals to perform certain behaviors because

doing so will communicate meaning to others and further enhance one’ self concept. In other

words, one’s self image is very important motivator of behavior (Grubb and Grathwohl, 1967).

Hypothesis

A number of processes may account for the impact of communicative influences from the media,

public opinion polls, and word of mouth on an individual’s attitudes and beliefs. The classical

conditioning effect is most often cited in which the affect generated by the message “transfers”

to the intended audience. Learning theory offers a theoretical rationale for this transference

process, simply stated our attitudes towards good things is favorable and generally speaking our

attitudes towards objects associated with bad things is unfavorable. Therefore positive or

negative feelings associated with an issue or message may also be projected onto an individual or

group. The Fishbein (1975) multi-attribute model assumes that attitudes towards objects are

comprised of beliefs associated with the object with specific attributes and evaluations of the

attributes.

From previous studies, it has been proven that subtle negative campaign messages do not

adversely affect those being criticized. Hypotheses were formulated in this study to unearth any

correlation between the severity of negative campaigns and how the public’s attitudes are

influenced by those making such statements and those being criticized.


Hypothesis (Cont’d)

On the basis of the literature reviewed research questions were chosen as opposed to formulating

hypotheses as there is not enough compelling research on the effects of negative statements on

those criticized and how such statements affect public attitudes.

RQ1: An overtly negative campaign message towards those criticized

unfavorably affects the public’s opinion of those criticized. It does

not adversely affect the public’s opinion of those making such

statements.

RQ2: An overtly negative campaign message towards those criticized

has no affect on the public’s opinion of those criticized. However,

it does adversely affect the public’s opinion of those making such

statements.

Methodology

Methods & Measures

Scholars Carrel and Wilmington (1998) studying persuasion know that compliance, performing a

behavior or act, differs from internalization, valuing a behavior or act such as a statement.

Baseline quantitative pre-test measures of the credibility of the political candidates from the

2008 election were surveyed utilizing self-report closed end questionnaires to ensure internal

validity. Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Mike Huckabee were

all measured as to the credibility of each candidate utilizing (Pfau and Eveland, 1996) semantic

differential scales of measurement to assess voter’s attitudes. Researchers (Berlo, Lemert, &

Mertz, 1971;


Methodology

Methods & Measures (Cont’d)

E. W. Miles & Leathers, 1984; Teven & Comadena, 1996) found that credibility (believability),

a multi-dimensional concept comprised of three independent factors: authoritativeness,

trustworthiness, and dynamism. Each of these factors was measured by six 7-point semantic

differential scales.

Authoritativeness: qualified/unqualified, informed/uninformed, authoritative/un-

authoritative, trained/untrained, experienced/un-experienced, skilled/unskilled

Trustworthiness: agreeable/un-agreeable, kind/cruel, pleasant/unpleasant,

safe/dangerous, congenial/quarrelsome, friendly/unfriendly

Dynamism: empathetic/hesitant, active/passive, aggressive/meek, bold/timid,

frank/reserved, forceful/forceless

The six items of the semantic differential scales used to measure each factor were summated to

produce a separate score for authoritativeness, trustworthiness and dynamism. These three

scores were then summed up into a single score with more weighting on authoritativeness and

trustworthiness.

The dependent variable in this case of credibility was used to measure a respondents’ attitude

towards each candidate using three 7-point semantic differential scales: credible/not credible,

competent/incompetent, and qualified/unqualified. The respondents in the pre-test were asked

their political affiliation in order to evaluate any bias toward a political party, in addition those

surveyed were asked to rank order the trustworthiness of each candidate. For the purposes of

this study more weight was given to the findings ascribed to the candidates of their political party

of choice when a clear bias was indicated from the data. All the candidates evaluated in the pre-


Methodology

Methods & Measures (Cont’d)

test were found to be of comparable integrity.

The video clips of candidates selected statements that were pre-tested as to the severity of the

harsh/harmless statements candidates made towards rivals using the 7-point semantic differential

scale for measurement validity.

Procedures

Due concern for the dignity and welfare of the participants in compliance with laws and

standards was seriously considered, reasonable steps implemented protections for the rights and

welfare of human participants and other persons affected by the research conducted. All

participants in this study were informed and provided consent voluntarily, free of will to

participate in this research as was the ethical standards for the reporting and publishing of the

research results.

DVD discs were provided to students interested in participating in this study in select states,

counties, and cities at college campuses about the United States that reflect the voting public.

Students selected watched the videos at various settings, such as their homes, or other

comfortable locations over the allotted two week period, simply emailing the questionnaire back

indicating their responses.

Errors were reduced by administering accurate measurement techniques in a consistent manner.

A threat to this study, albeit considered non-threatening was the lack of control over the setting

as to where the video-clips were viewed and the questionnaires taken by the students. Each

participant was allotted two weeks to watch the video clips and submit the questionnaire via the


Methodology

Procedures (Cont’d)

internet to minimize any sleeper effect threats as to the timing of when students participated in

this study, and the external events influencing their attitudes, certainly may influence responses.

The procedures, methods, and questionnaires ensured that the standards put forth from the

Institutional Review Board (IRB) were strictly adhered to. The questionnaire design and the

DVD video-clips of the candidates were administered in compliance with the recognized

standards of scientific competence and ethical research.

A pilot study of the questionnaire was conducted utilizing the test-retest method at two points in

time evaluating any possibility that questions or results could be misleading. Cronbach’s (1951)

alpha coefficient method evaluated the overall relationship among the questionnaires answers

achieving internal reliability well above 0.75, considered acceptable for scholarly review.

The treatment, or other “filler” video-clip’s content regarding candidate’s statements were pre-

tested and measured to be less harsh than those being studied. These “filler” clips (the

independent variable) were manipulated regarding the severity of the statements made by the

candidates to provide control over the experiment. The “filler” video-clips were randomly

distributed into the experimental sample to better evaluate how the participants’, the public (the

dependent variable) attitudes were influenced by the varying severity of the candidate’s

statements.


Methodology

Sampling

A representative sample of (3,000 college students) were selected non-randomly reflected

eligible voters on the basis of gender, race, religion, ethnicity, home state, urban/suburban cities,

and political party. Factors such as age, income, and education were not fairly represented as

college students were used out of convenience. Cluster sampling was used in select states,

counties within those states, cities within those counties, to select colleges of higher learning that

are indicative of all regions of the United States, as there are varying views based on the region

of the country that may skew the findings of this study.

To minimize external and internal influences on the respondents’ attitudes that history and

selection may pose, the timing of the study was over a three month period. Two, three month

surveys representing cross-sectional samples of typical voters were conducted in the winter of

2007 and spring of 2008 as people’s beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors are time bound sensitive.

Historical factors that may have an impact on the respondents’ participating in this study include

local, national, and world events going on at this time of this survey. Personal friendships,

relations, peers, and family members may also impact the respondents answers affecting their

attitudes towards candidates and or issues brought up in the video-clips presented in this

research.

Other considerations such as the student’s major in college or parent’s political affiliation were

not deemed to be substantive factors in influencing opinions of this study. Of course history-

selection may have influenced regions of the U.S. due to local or regional events and or

statements made by candidates in those areas or if the candidates are from those regions of the

United States.


Methodology

Questionnaire

In order to easily compare the information gathered from the respondents a directive strategy was

embraced. The structure of the closed-end questions as much as possible took into account,

question order effects of consistency, fatigue, and redundancy. The self-report questions were

also structured to eliminate as much as possible to avoid response style, so that the respondents

did not simply indicate the same answer to each question, results that did indicate this behavior

were reviewed to evaluate the level of participation of the respondent. A balanced-scale

approach to the structure of the questions (Oskamp, 1991) switched the wording of questions to

elicit positive or negative responses. Finally questions were structured to elicit a quarrelsome

response style leading participants to say ‘yes’ or ‘no’ to a similar questions, validating the

consistency of the data.

Threats due to how the research was conducted. Measurement validity and reliability was

minimized by clearly indicting each question asked in simple language employing a tunnel

format to yield consistent responses easily coded. Only questions relevant to the study were

asked, not slang, abbreviations or vague expressions were used in the questions. Important terms

were highlighted for emphasis, but not overtly used.

Questions were specific, precise, and focused on one aspect per question to simplify the answers

with attention given to matching the choices to questions appropriately. Response answers were

mutually exclusive to indicate only one answer to each question, as were the choices to each

question exhaustive to ensure all possible anticipated answers. Inclusive terms such as

always/never imply negative connotations and were not used in the phrasing of questions.


Methodology

Questionnaire (Cont’d)

The questionnaire was written in a natural conversational tone with simple wording avoiding

complex questions. Care was taken to construct logically complete, grammatically correct, short,

to the point questions, not breaking questions between pages, and that did not duplicate earlier

items or that may appear redundant to those surveyed. The tone of the survey was user friendly

and flowed easily from one question to another to put the participants in a mood conducive to

answering the questions and to alleviate fatigue. Earlier questions engaged the respondents’

interest in the subject being researched but did not overwhelm them.

Sensitive questions were placed in the middle of the survey as participants would most likely be

agreeable to answering questions truthfully. Questions regarding demographic information was

asked of voluntarily and placed at the end of the survey with regard to race, ethnicity, and other

potentially personal information. Answers to such questions as age and income were provided as

ranges as many people are sensitive to providing such personal information.

Variables

The candidates’ statements represented on the DVD video-clips (independent variable) were

studied to evaluate if there was any influence attitudes on the (dependent variable) of the public

or in this case the respondents participating in this research. The candidates criticized (also

dependent variables) by campaign statements (independent variable) from rivals influence the

public’s/respondent’s (dependent variable) attitudes towards those criticized.

Aspects of the variables could not be controlled such as the tone of candidates’ words and the

crowds’ reactions to the candidates captured on the video-clips. The audience’s at these political


Methodology

Variables (Cont’d)

events usually is biased for the candidate, and their reactions to statements made certainly may

influence those viewing the film footage. The setting of debates among candidates within the

same party may have a subtle advantage given the topics discussed that may favor one candidate

over another as regions of the country have varying priorities such as rural or urban areas. The

press may ask or respond to a candidate’s statement that may be biased to the candidate. On any

occasion the clothes of each candidate may lend subtle bias to the participants of this research

and many other intangibles such as if their spouse, family, friends, and other high profile

individuals present in the video-clip provided.

Data Analysis

Results

Given the large sample size, the scores of the variables upon evaluation were found to exhibit a

normative distribution typical of the population sample indicate a high level of accuracy

supporting the central limits theory (Norusis, 1991). The random sample in this study reflects

the actual mean in the sampling distribution accurately representing the true population mean

with a 95% confidence level indicating a high level of reliability for the internal measures and

assurance of minimal internal error.

There was no bias in the selection of participants based on political party, however strong

negative notions of any of the candidates, were screened during the pre-testing to provide an

objective sample. The public’s strong opinions on the issues and candidates may explain the

kurtosis and skewness of the distribution curve here tall and strongly pointed, with scores


Data Analysis

Results

clustered around the middle exhibiting leptokurtic distribution. Historically past elections have

precipitated strong attitudes on various issues however firsts in this election may raise issues

regarding gender and race, as there has never been a serious female contender for the presidency

nor an African American.

No significant difference or relationship was supported that negatively affect both the candidates

making strong statements attacking their rival’s character, nor was there any negative impact on

the candidates making such negative statements.

Samples of Election Results from the 2008 Democratic Presidential State Primaries

South Carolina 1/26/2008 – Obama 55%, Clinton 27%

Florida 1/29/2008 – Clinton 50%, Obama 33%

California 2/5/2008 – Clinton 52%, Obama 42%

Illinois 2/5/2008 – Obama 65%, Clinton 33%

New York 2/5/2008 – Clinton 57%, Obama 40%

Maine 2/10/2008 – Obama 59%, Clinton 40%

Virginia 2/12/2008 – Obama 68%, Clinton 35%

Ohio 3/4/2008 – Clinton 54%, Obama 44%

Wyoming 3/8/2008 – Obama 61%, Clinton 38%

Pennsylvania 4/22/2008 – Clinton 55%, Obama 45%


Data Analysis

Results

Samples of Election Results from the 2008 Republican Presidential State Primaries

South Carolina 1/19/2008 – McCain 33%, Huckabee 30%, Romney 15%

Florida 1/29/2008 – McCain 36%, Romney 31%

Maine 2/2/2008 – Romney 52%, McCain 21%

Arizona 2/5/2008 – McCain 47%, Romney 34%, Huckabee 9%

Arkansas 2/5/2008 – Huckabee 60%, McCain 20%, Romney 13%

California 2/5/2008 – McCain 42%, Romney 34%, Huckabee 12%

Massachusetts 2/5/2008 – Romney 51%, McCain 41%, Huckabee 4%

Montana 2/5/2008 – Romney 38%, McCain 22%

New York 2/5/2008 – McCain 51%, Romney 28%, Huckabee 11%

Theoretical Interpretation

Factor analysis utilizing a Likert type scale measures and helps define the strength and validity

of claims. The Theory of Reasoned Action TRA examines the variables that lead to behavioral

intention, predicting behavior, in this study is used as a strategy for audience segmentation.

Careful analysis may lead to determining the public’s attitudes and voting behavior based upon

negative campaigning. Audience segmentation strategies traditionally based on demographics,

psychographics, and or geography aides in classifying groups that strongly identify with specific


Data Analysis

Theoretical Interpretation (Cont’d)

issues, ideas, and candidate to interpret and evaluate results from data obtained. Cluster analysis

is considered an atheoretical statistical tool applied in marketing communications and other

disciplines further categorizing subjective norm factors of beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors in

specific characteristic sets identifying behavioral actions used to evaluate assumptions of

negative campaigning on the source and those criticized. No one analytical theory is ever

definitive in interpretive analysis, invariably other theories may have subtly influenced the

analysis of the hypothetical assumptions put forth in this paper.

Means (Interpretations of Data)

A longitudinal survey may have provided differing opinions of the statements made by the

candidates and those criticized providing a more enduring assessment of the impact of

environmental events on the population sample. Potential unintentional threats such as

expectancy on the researcher’s part, lack of procedure validity, or participant’s exhibiting the

Hawthorne effect could affect the confidence of the data.

In this study inferences were made regarding variables within the population on the basis of the

relationships found in the sample selected from the population of eligible voters. The practical

significance of the data was reliable however the results were inconclusive in proving the

research questions posited they are none the less potentially important, necessitating further

research.

A chi-square test of the null hypothesis yielded 96% indicating the theory was not valid,

therefore the hypothesis was rejected. Type I Error can be further reduced by testing more


Data Analysis

Means (Interpretations of Data) (Cont’d)

stringent or conservative testing, lowering the alpha level to 0.01%, however doing so would

lead to a higher likelihood of committing a Type II Error, accepting that the null hypothesis is

probably false, a false negative, meaning the relationship is not significant, when in fact, it is.

The 3,000 respondents sample size is more than reasonable to have confidence in rejecting the

null hypothesis (Jaeger, 1990). Levy and Steelman (1996) point out ways of increasing

statistical power, when the most appropriate alpha test is used for the research study.

It is important to differentiate effect size from statistical significance (J. Cohen, 1988; Rosenthal,

1993). A statistically significant finding only indicates the extent which the results are due to

chance. It does not reference how “small” or “large” a finding may be. Therefore, the statistical

finding is considered as well as how large is the effect size; the estimate of the degree to which

the phenomena is present in a population and/or the extent to which the null hypothesis is false

(Vogt, 1993, p. 79).

Difference analysis examined the differences between the categories of the statements made by

the candidates (independent variable) among eligible voters using a nominal scale for data, chi-

square test. Ordinal data was analyzed for the Mann-Whitney U-Test scores for all respondents,

here statistically significant, providing a high level of confidence to reject the null hypothesis.

The means for the attitude and subjective norm factors were assessed as a strategy to indentify

distinct differences between possible cluster solutions. Means provided a measure in which to

indentify the level of importance on topics, issues, ideals, and candidates. Distinct opinions and

assumptions were developed, however conflicting beliefs and attitudes were not consistent with

individual candidates as expected. Unique groups that share opinions cannot whole embrace an


Data Analysis

Means (Interpretations of Data) (Cont’d)

individual’s ideals and positions on the many important issues that face Americans, however

some groups were found to be closely aligned with some of the candidates.

Discussion

Perhaps the negative impact of accusations is dependent on pre-existing notions of ideas, issues,

and individuals. Further it is found that people with strong beliefs regarding issues, ideas, and

individuals were not easily swayed and negative statements merely reinforcing per-existing

notions. Belief systems and what constitutes them and what if anything determines the strength

of one’s convictions. Further those with limited knowledge, issues, ideas, and individuals base

their assessments of the integrity of those making negative statements and also those accursed.

Individual’s strength of pre-existing beliefs on various issues may not be influenced or beliefs

Those with limited knowledge on individuals, ideas, issues, or otherwise

During this year’s 2008 Democratic Primary Presidential Election, Hillary Clinton lost in some

states such as Virginia after harsh criticisms of her rival Barack Obama’s, while in other states

such as Pennsylvania she won decisively challenging Barack’s leadership abilities, perhaps from

the mounting negative press Barack had experienced in the national media regarding comments

made regarding American’s faith. In Florida none of the Democratic Presidential hopefuls

advertised, there was however national attention from several nationally televised debates and

press coverage in the local Florida news sites. Hillary won decisively in Florida, worth noting

as the results of the various state primary contests neither support nor disprove the research


Discussion (Cont’d)

conducted regarding the effects and influence on the public regarding strong statements

negatively directed at political rivals.

Republican Presidential front runner John McCain seems to have benefited from his rivals

mention of him in various Democratic debates. Mitt Romney’s statements attacking McCain

seem to have benefited him in Massachusetts and Montana but did not adversely limit McCain’s

chances in New York and California where he won by a considerable margin.

Republican Presidential hopeful Mike Huckabee did not engage in negative mud slinging. His

statements in this study are considered non combative, as such where used as a control for

manipulating the (independent variable) of candidate’s negative statements.

Republicans and Democrats alike all won in their home states indicating that local bias was

certainly a factor in this 2008 Presidential Primary.

Validity is not a commodity that can be purchased with [statistical] techniques (Brinberg &

McGrath, 1985, p. 13). On a conceptual level the findings important but inconclusive, thus the

ecological validity and replication of this study is impractical.

The selection of the participants may have influenced the validity of the conclusions given

students typically ranged from age of 18 to 25, being highly educated, and single which may

have impacted the results of this research. Inter-participant bias most certainly played a role in

the attitudes of those in the study, as students are more susceptible to social pressures than older

voters. Some of the candidates’ platforms and statements may have less influence on this young

demographic than older voters regarding religion, race, sex, or other factors.


Limitations and Future Research

Factors of attitudes and subjective norms make it difficult to consider and capture all the possible

dimensions of extraneous variables. Future and past campaigns might provide evidence that

strengthens and/or raises doubts about the research questions postulated here. Focusing on

credibility and trust, as key elements is critical to evaluating negative campaign messages. At

the very least this study offers insights into the transference of attitudes and actions regarding

negative comparative statements supporting existing research on Learning Theory.


References

Botan, C., Frey, L., & Kreps, G. (2000) Investigating Communication, An Introduction to Research methods. 2nd edition. Allyn & Bacon.

Fitzmaurice, J. (November 2005). Incorporating Consumers’ Motivations into the Theory of Reasoned Action. Psychology & Marketing, 22(11): 911-929.

Muehling, D. D. (November 4th, 1987). Comparative Advertising: The Influence of Attitude-Toward-The-Ad on Brand Evaluation. Journal of Advertising, 16, 43-49.

Nataraajan, R. (September/October 1993). Prediction of Choice in a Technically Complex, Essentially Intangible, Highly Experimental, and Rapidly Evolving Consumer Product. Psychology & Marketing, 10(5): 367-379.

Newell, S. E. & Stutman, R. K. (Fall 1984) Beliefs Versus Values: Salient Beliefs in Designing a Persuasive Message. The Western Journal of Speech Communication, 48: 362-372.

Parrott, R., Silk, K., & Weiner, J. (2005). Gene Cuisine or Frankenfood? The Theory of Reasoned Action as an Audience Segmentation Strategy for Messages About Genetically Modified Foods. Journal of Health Communication, 10: 751-767.

Documents

Proposal Neg Campaigns