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Attrition Prediction Model
I Presented by: Amandeep Kaur(10pghr05)
Aneesha Pramanik(10pghr08) Prakhar Ranjan(10pghr35)
Ria Ghosh(10pghr42) Sudhakar Mishra(10pghr48)
Attrition
"A reduction in the number of employees through retirement, resignation or death"
Reasons why an employee leaves the Organization
• Monetary Factors
• Lack of Good Working Conditions
• No Flexible Work Schedules
•The Mismatch Between Job and Person
•Too Little Coaching and Feedback
•Lack of support
Cont..
•Stress From Overwork and Work-Life Imbalance
•Loss of Trust and Confidence in Senior Leaders
•Less frequency in giving rewards.
Cont…
Cont…
•Lack of understanding contribution to overall company objectives
•Lack of appreciation
•Lack of challenges in job
•The job or workplace not up to employee’s expectations
•Lack of respect
• Very Few Supportive colleagues
•Higher Studies
•Favoritism
Cont…
EFFECT ON ORGANIZATION IF ITS EMPLOYEES LEAVE
Loss of productivity
Replacing qualified employees
Poor retention creates a “revolving door” culture within the organization lowering morale and confidence.
Cost of overtime or temporary help
Recruiting costs
Interviewing costs
Time spent in orientation
Cost of attrition
Lost Sales Cost
Recruitment Cost
Low Productivity
cost
Training Cost
New Hire Cost
Attrition cost
People Cost
Attrition Spread Across Industry In Different Verticals
Industry Distribution
BFSI(25%)
IT(20%)
Manufacturing(13%)
FMCG(10%)
Pharma(8%)
Telecom(5%)
Retail(5%)
Gender Distribution
Male(82%)
Female(18%)
Region Distribution
North(38%)
South(32%)
Central(30%)
Role Distribution
Frontline(69%)
Managerial(19%)
Leadership(1%)
Supervisor(11%)
Objective
• To develop a dynamic predictive model on attrition that will help in manpower planning and reducing employee turnover
DescriptionEmployee attrition is becoming an increasingly
serious issue in this firm based in the IT services sector. Understanding which factors cause
employees to leave and which actions retain them is an important Business/HR Intelligence
application.
This project through the use of ‘predictive modeling’ and
various analytic methods aims to help predict for the organization:
The probability that an employee will leave over a given time period (for example, in the
next year) and
Quantifies the relationship of the input data to the probability of attrition. For e.g. - an employee’s job-action history,
age, gender, the length of time in a position, salary history etc.
Significance for IBM - Daksh
Through this model, we hope to
provide the organization
valuable insights by looking at the
predicted attrition rates and trends
for employees with high-termination probability, which also helps pinpoint
the reasons for termination.
If the organization
knows why its employees are
likely to leave, it can develop
effective policies and
strategies for employee retention.
It can identify and respond to
a problem before it affects the bottom line.
It can also use turnover
predictions to refine forecasts
for resources that are
necessary to meet future
strategic goals.
Attrition Prediction Model
• Given the modelY= constant(x1+x2+x3+x4)+constant(z1+z2)+ B + C
WhereY = attrition rate z1 = Background Check
FailureX1= Higher Education z2 = V & A rejects
x2 = Personal Reason B = Market Scenarios
x3 = Health Problems C= Resource Pool
x4 = Better Career Opportunities
Deliverables
To create a Predictive Model on Attrition using HRIS framework
Application and implementation of the model followed by its evaluation of the performance of
the predictive model
Test of autocorrelation to know the seasonal pattern
Multiple regression based forecasting for prediction
Model fit to know the reliability and the reality
Through sensitivity analysis we can predict on various different scenarios
Methodology
Analysis of factors responsible for attrition at IBM
Literature Review of various predictive attrition models
Devising an attrition model customized for IBM
Pilot testing for 2 departments
Collection of historical data from the HRIS for testing the attrition model
HRIS at IBM
IBM – Daksh uses the PeopleSoft
program for HRIS
This handles updates, encoding, reports
generation on Headcount, Attrition & Retention rates
Extraction of relevant employee data from PeopleSoft using the
following criteria
INDUSTRY EXAMPLES
Infosys Attrition Prediction
• In 2009-10, attrition touched 13.4%, a level last seen in early 2008.
• Out of the 13.4% attrition rate, 3 percentage points is involuntary attrition.
• Infosys Analytics team has delivered many short term analytic projects like iRACE which is use to predict the Employee Attrition Rate
GENPACT