PREDICTING THE FUTURE OF BROADCASTING Philip Laven Director, Technical Department European Broadcasting Union ACTS Concertation Meeting, Brussels 24 November

PREDICTING THE FUTURE OF

BROADCASTINGPhilip Laven

Director, Technical Department

European Broadcasting Union

ACTS Concertation Meeting, Brussels

24 November 1998

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

TECHNOLOGY IS ACCELERATING

Music

TV

Radio

78 rpm record

LP record

stereo LP CD Mini-Disc

DAT

TV colour TV

teletext

NICAM

Satellite TV

PALplus

AM radio FM radio

FM stereo

DAB

audio cassette

DVB

Dates of introduction (approximate)

VCR

DCC

CONVERGENCE

Broadcasters “Internet” services

InternetBroadcastdelivery

or DIVERGENCE?

COMPETING DELIVERY SYSTEMS

• There will be numerous competing delivery mechanisms

• Success in the consumer market will depend on:– the range of features– ease of use– cost of equipment– cost of use– content (quantity and quality)

• Attractive content is the most important factor in the success of any multimedia product

BROADCASTING

ADVANTAGES• delivers high quality video & audio services

simultaneously to millions of users• huge installed base of receivers• portable and mobile use, especially for radio• easy to use, cheap hardware

DISADVANTAGES• spectrum scarcity has limited the number of

broadcasters (but this problem will be eased by the introduction of digital broadcasting)

• little opportunity for interactivity

EVEN MORE BROADCASTING

• Digital technology will result in an explosive growth in the number of broadcast services– free-to-air– subscription – near-video-on-demand– pay-per-view

• Europe is moving to digital broadcasting:– DAB (Digital Audio Broadcasting)– DVB (Digital Video Broadcasting)

ENGULFED BY THE DIGITAL WAVE?

OVER-AIR BROADCASTS TO PCs

Broadcasters

Broadcastdelivery

OVER-AIR BROADCASTS TO PCs

• Some PCs are fitted with TV cards to permit reception of analogue TV broadcasts

• This feature will become more common:– “50% of PCs sold in the USA in the year 2000 will be

capable of receiving digital TV broadcasts”

(Microsoft/Compaq/Intel prediction - June 1997)

• This represents an expanding market for normal broadcast TV services (analogue & digital)

• It could also permit important new forms of broadcast multimedia services, using the processing power and storage capability of PCs

TV ACCESS TO THE INTERNET



TV ACCESS TO THE INTERNET

• A special set-top box (e.g. WebTV) can give access to the Web on a standard TV set

• Web pages must be magnified and re-formatted to ensure legibility on the TV screen:– many graphics cannot be accurately displayed– only part of page is visible without scrolling

• Advantages:– ease of use and low cost– e-mail (if you buy an optional keyboard)

• Disadvantages– “poor person’s Internet” with limited capability

SEPARATE WORLDS?



INTERNET

ADVANTAGES

• offers interactive multimedia services, including reasonable quality audio

• two-way communication enables a multiplicity of content providers

• world-wide network, apparently “free” to users

DISADVANTAGES

• expensive equipment is needed, currently limited to <10% of European homes

• it suffers from severe congestion

• it cannot yet offer video services of useful quality

• it can be difficult to use

• Computer enthusiasts praise “intuitive” GUIs (Graphical User Interfaces)

• Undoubtedly, GUIs are a great advance on the MS-DOS prompt …. C:\>

• But there is still a long way to go . . . . . . .• In Windows 95, when you want to STOP using the

computer, you must click on

INTUITIVE INTERFACES?

• Above all, the next generation of home terminals must be easy to use

PREDICTIONS …...

Internal memo, Western Union, 1876

• This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value for us.

HM Warner, Warner Bros, 1927

• "Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?”

INCUMBENTS BEWARE!

Some broadcasters think that the Internet has nothing to do with broadcasting!

REPLACEMENT TECHNOLOGIES

• Nevertheless, we would be equally foolish to believe that all new technologies will automatically replace all old technologies– Radio broadcasting has not been replaced by

television– The cinema has not been replaced by

television or by video-cassettes– In fact, both radio and the cinema have gone

from strength to strength – despite intense competition from the newer technologies

IN THE BEGINNING . . . .

• Only 3 years ago, streaming audio arrived on the Internet in the form of RealAudio® 1.0

• It claimed to offer “AM quality” sound, but the quality was very poor and variable

• At that time, most broadcasters felt that “audio over the Internet” was neither a threat nor an opportunity - one said:– “listeners used to FM and CDs will not tolerate

the poor quality offered by the Internet”

EVOLUTION OF STREAMING AUDIO

• Audio quality is now much improved because of:– new algorithms for audio compression and for

handling of transmission errors– 14.4 kbit/s modems being superseded by

28.8, 33.6 or, even, 56 kbit/s modems• More than 40 million copies of RealAudio

software have been downloaded over the Internet

DOES IT MAKE SENSE?

• Does audio broadcasting via the Internet make sense for broadcasters or for listeners?

• Although there are millions of potential listeners on the Internet, typical audio servers can support only 100 - 500 simultaneous listeners

• Would you spend $80,000 on a new radio transmitter to serve 200 people?

• The Internet can offer audio-on-demand services, in addition to re-broadcasting of radio services

• However, there is a copyright problem because of the global nature of the Internet

• Low bit rates are possible through reduction of:– picture size – quality (resolution, colour fidelity, S/N, etc.) – number of frames per second

• Video over the Internet uses all these techniques– typically 1/16 of full screen– poor image quality– poor portrayal of motion

• High quality, full-screen, full-motion video requires high bit rates

VIDEO OVER THE INTERNET

© NASA

DIGITAL COMPRESSION

• MPEG-1 compression at 100 kbit/s gives poor picture quality:– even when used at 240 x 160 pixels

(~10% of full screen)– even at 6 frames per second (25% of original)

• Much better algorithms will become available in the next 5 years:– 0.5 Mbit/s will give reasonable quality – but 2 Mbit/s will remain a difficult target for

full-screen high quality video on ALL types of source material

BROADCASTING VIA THE INTERNET

• Many broadcasters already use the Web to offer:

– programme-related information

– audio services (quality now OK)

– video services (quality unacceptable)

• Some of Europe’s most popular web sites are operated by broadcasters

• Broadcasters are attracted by the global reach of the Internet:

– real benefits for international broadcasters

– even little stations can be “global” players

– listeners can hear their favourite radio station wherever they are

ECONOMICS OF THE WEB

• There is no clear “business model”• Almost all web sites lose lots of money

– they generate little or no income – large web sites are expensive to develop and

to keep up-to-date• You may become a “victim of your own success”

– if your web site becomes very successful, you will have to pay for more hardware (e.g. servers) and for greater bandwidth

MICRO-TRANSACTIONS

• The Web will be transformed by “e-commerce” which will allow secure on-line transactions

• At present, handling charges (e.g. on credit cards) outweigh the cost of many services

• Future developments will permit low cost “micro-transactions”

• Content providers will be able to charge users, for example: – $0.01 per each page viewed– $0.10 per hour of audio-on-demand– $3.00 per hour of video-on-demand

FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS

• The Internet will undoubtedly develop to offer a wide range of enhanced services, including good quality video and audio

• However, unlike broadcasting, the Internet:– is not well suited to simultaneous delivery of

programme material to large audiences– cannot offer interactive services to mobiles

and portables (without consuming huge amounts of the radio spectrum)

GROWTH OF THE INTERNET

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Date

Nu

mb

er o

f h

ost

s (m

illi

on

)

Take-off around 1995?

Source: Network Wizards (http://www.nw.com)

Every washing machine will have an Internet address!

GROWTH OF THE INTERNET

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

1,000,000

10,000,000

100,000,000

1970 1980 1990 2000

Date

Nu

mb

er o

f h

ost

s

Source: Network Wizards (http://www.nw.com)

Factor of 2 every 12 months

0

10

20

30

40

50

Russia

Greece

Turkey

Estonia

Poland

Czech R

ep

Portugal

Hungary

Italy

Spain

Slovakia

Ireland

Austria

Belgium

France

Germ

any

Netherlands

Sw

itzerland

UK

Denm

ark

Sw

eden

Norw

ay

Finland

Iceland%

of h

ouse

hold

sINTERNET PENETRATION

Iceland

Source: Nua Ltd. (http://www.nua.ie)

Finland

Norway

Sweden

Denmark

BROADCASTING & THE INTERNET

• The Internet will become very important for broadcasters as a new delivery mechanism:– for broadcast services – for on-demand services– for international audiences

MY PREDICTION . . . .

• Within 10 years, 50% of homes in Western Europe will be connected to the Internet – most will also be able to receive on-demand

video services – even if the quality does not quite meet the goal of “broadcast quality”

• Is this prediction wildly optimistic?• If true, it implies that the remaining 50% would

still be dependent on traditional broadcasting• Broadcasting will remain ubiquitous (~ 100%)

BROADCAST DELIVERY OF INTERNET



BROADCAST DELIVERY OF INTERNET

• In the USA, some broadcasters transmit Web pages on spare capacity on analogue TV services

– In Europe, this spare capacity has already been used for teletext

• Due to the limited capacity, the service includes a limited number of pages (e.g. 100) selected from popular Web sites

• Pre-selection of Web pages limits the usefulness of this service compared with full Internet access

• Better services could be included on digital TV or DAB services, where more capacity will be available, or on dedicated DVB channels

INTERACTIVE BROADCAST SERVICES

• Some operators dedicate a DVB satellite channel to deliver Internet content at 30-40 Mbit/s, using telephones as a return channel

• Such services offer full interactivity with download speeds of “up to 0.5 Mbit/s” per user

• However, this implies a maximum of 80 simultaneous users across the entire footprint of the satellite (typically the whole of Europe)

PUSH TECHNOLOGY

• “Push” services (e.g. Pointcast) delivered over the Internet allow users to specify their interests: – news items about specific subjects– share prices for a particular company– a football team– weather in certain cities

• The user’s computer periodically checks if any relevant new information is available, and downloads it for display

PUSH = BROADCASTING?

“Push” technology is:– similar to broadcasting in that many users

receive the same information (almost) simultaneously

– different from broadcasting in that users only receive their “narrowcast” information

• Works poorly with “dial-up” connections to the Internet, but works well with “persistent” connections (or broadcast delivery)

• Storage at the receiving terminal is essential

PRICE TRENDS

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Year

Pri

ce p

er M

B (

UK

£) Factor of 2 in

18 months

Factor of 2 in12 months

Random-accessmemory

Hard disks

MOORE’S LAW

• Moore’s Law predicts that price will reduce OR performance will improve by a factor of 2 every 18 months

• A factor of 2 every 18 months is equivalent to:– a factor of 10 every 5 years– a factor of 100 every 10 years

• These sustained long-term trends are responsible for transforming the computer industry

• Moore’s Law can be applied to a wide range of electronic components - not just silicon devices

STORAGE WILL BE VERY CHEAP

• Storage is unusual in radios and TVs, mainly because of cost constraints

• RAM:– US $2 per MB today– US $0.20 per MB in 5 years– US $0.02 per MB in 10 years

• Hard discs:– US $35 per GB today– US $3.50 per GB in 5 years– US $0.35 per GB in 10 years

DIGITAL AUDIO BROADCASTING (DAB)

• The data capacity of a DAB channel is 1.2 Mbit/s, but < 20% will be available for non-audio services

• A 64 kbit/s channel can deliver:

– 28.8 MB in 1 hour

– 1 MB in 2 minutes

• A 28.8 kbit/s modem used to access Internet services usually delivers far less than 28.8 kbit/s

• Data services delivered via DAB will achieve continuous throughput at the nominal data rate (i.e. 64 kbit/s = 64 kbit/s) to mobile receivers

LOCAL STORAGE

• “Intelligent” storage in the receiver would allow:– sophisticated interactive multimedia information

services, continuously up-dated and instantly available

– TV viewers to “order” a programme to be recorded by a single click during a trailer

– automatic indexing of recorded programmes• The “data carousel” concept wastes bandwidth,

whereas local storage is much more efficient• Local storage (and push technology) enables

broadcasters to “break free of the constraints of linear broadcasting”

BROADCASTING & THE INTERNET

• The Internet is a “powerhouse of technology” (such as streaming audio/video, downloadable software, push technology)

• These technologies require user terminals with considerable processing power and local storage

• However, broadcasting standards minimise the complexity of receivers (so as to reduce costs) – this constraint will become unnecessary because of the

falling costs of computer processing and storage

• Broadcasters will embrace the Internet, ADOPTING and ADAPTING its technologies to benefit from the advantages of broadcast delivery

AN IDEALISTIC “S-CURVE”

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Years after introduction

% o

f h

ou

seh

old

s

Earlyadopters

Transition tomass market

Reluctantpurchasers

REAL S-CURVES

0

20

40

60

80

100

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year

% o

f U

SA

ho

use

ho

lds Electricity

Telephone Air conditioningCar

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas & Forbes magazine

SPEED OF PROGRESS

0

20

40

60

80

100

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year

% o

f U

SA

ho

use

ho

lds Electricity

Telephone

Air conditioning

CarVCR


FASTER PROGRESS?

0

20

40

60

80

100

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year

% o

f U

SA

ho

use

ho

lds

Radio

Colour TV

VCR


FROM 10% TO 90%

0

20

40

60

80

100

-20 0 20 40

Years after 10% penetration

% o

f U

SA

ho

use

ho

lds

VCR

Microwave

Colour TV Radio

Telephone


IF YOU ARE VERY, VERY LUCKY ….

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Years after introduction

% o

f h

ou

seh

old

s

10% after5 years

60% after10 years

90% after20 years

A CONUNDRUM

In 1989, 6 months after the start of the Sky TV service on Astra, the following question was posed in the UK:

Q. What is the difference betweenSky TV and the Loch Ness Monster?

A. More people have seen the Loch Ness Monster

BSkyB is now one of the mostprofitable companies in the UK

TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS

• Technology is evolving rapidly and unpredictably• But the trends are PREDICTABLE• Over a period of 10 years, performance OR price of

technologies will change by a factor of– 100 x performance (at same price)– 0.01 x cost (at same performance)

• We must take these trends into account:– when planning new types of service– when setting standards

• Have this been done well in the past?

EMPHASIS ON SOFTWARE

• In the past, R&D effort has concentrated on:– modulation & coding schemes for the

broadcast signals (and for “return” channels)– compression of audio and video signals

• In the future, software will replace hardware– MPEG-2 is the last of the hardware “dinosaurs”– all future systems (including modulation

schemes) should be based on software – downloadable software can help to cope with

advancing technologies

IMPORTANT TOPICS

• APIs (applications programming interfaces)

• Encouraging free trade (avoidance of “gateways”)

• Future-proofing systems (and investments)

– migration paths from “new” technologies to “newer” technologies

• Services/applications that are independent of transport media (e.g. scaleable technology)

• Mobility

• Applications of e-commerce

• Copyright protection

• Metadata (both for use in production phase and for use by consumers)



THE WINNERS?

?

?

EVOLUTION OF BROADCASTING

Stage 1 – A few services (analogue)

Stage 2– Many services (cable, satellite, digital)

Stage 3– Multimedia services (broadcasting, Internet)

Stage 4– On-demand services (server-based or local storage)

CONCLUSIONS

• Broadcasters (content providers) will become agnostic about delivery systems

• Traditional broadcasting will remain ubiquitous, but broadcasters will use the Internet (and its successors) to deliver new types of service

• Broadcasting plus local storage will be a powerful combination

• Too many debates on the future of broadcasting concentrate on delivery systems:– a few customers are motivated by technology,

but most are attracted by “content” • Not enough debate about content creation

AND FINALLY …

Georges Pompidou:

There are 3 roads to ruin:– women– gambling – technicians

The most pleasant is with women

The quickest is with gambling

But the surest is with technicians

Documents

PREDICTING THE FUTURE OF BROADCASTING Philip Laven Director, Technical Department European Broadcasting Union ACTS Concertation Meeting, Brussels 24 November