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12th Concertation meeting Nov. 98
AC 226/ OPTIMUMProject
OUTLINEProject presentationObjectives for OPTIMUMPlanned work and AchievementsAnalyse 6 business casesWorkshop and Delphi surveyRisk assessment of market and technologiesGuidelinesOPTIMUM guidelinesACTS guidelinesEURESCOM guidelines
OPTIMUM PartnerTELENOR RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT,, NorwayINTELLSERVE LTD, Greece JVH INTERNATIONAL, BelgiumFIRMA H. DANIELSEN, NorwayFRANCE TELECOM, FranceDASSAULT ELECTRONIQUE, FranceARISTEL, FranceELIOS, FranceM3G, FranceSYSTEMES G, FranceENST B, FranceCENTRO STUDI E LABORATORI TELECOMUNICAZIONI SPA, ItalyUNIVERSIDADE DE AVEIRO, Portugal PLURICOM, PortugalNOKIA CORPORATION, FinlandTELECOM FINLAND, FinlandHELSINKI TELEPHONE CORPORATION, FinlandKONINKLIJKE PTT NETHERLAND NV, The Netherlands TELE DENMARK, DenmarkDEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG, GermanyDATTEL AS, Czech Republic
OPTIMUM OBJECTIVEContribution to guidelines and recommendations for the introduction of advanced multimedia communications networks and services based on tech-evaluation of business cases.The business cases are based on inputs from ACTS field trials and projects, expertise of specialised SMEs and market and technology evolution.Business cases are evaluated with the Tool and methodology from R2087/ TITAN and OPTIMUM project
Role of OPTIMUM
The OPTIMUM Information FlowNPVIRRPayback PeriodEconomic InputsCash flows, Profit & loss accountsGeometric ModelServicesArchitecturesYear 0Year 1Year nYear m. . .Demand for the Telecommunications ServicesDBRevenuesOA&MCostsLife Cycle CostFirst Installed CostInvestmentsRisk Assessment
Techno-Economic Evaluation ProcessCase definitionService parametersArchitecture, dimensioningCost informationModelling and calculation of resultsAnalysis of results
OPTIMUM BUSINESS CASESSMEs located in an industrial parkSMEs with a common sectorial profile spread in a wide geographical areaTele-medicineTele-learningCompetitive Access ProviderEconomics of Multimedia Service Upgrades
Business Case 6Economics of Multimedia Service UpgradesEvaluates the viability of fast access to the Internet and to other information sourcesAccess speed from 64kbit/s up to 10Mbit/s Two services evaluated:Basic service (non-real time applications)Enhanced service (real time applications included)Three environments modelled:Telephone operator network using advanced digital line coding, e.g. ADSLCable television network using cable modemsLMDS radio accessSeveral service penetration scenarios evaluated10%, 20%*, 30% or 40% final penetrationRisk analysis performed on most sensitive and uncertain components:Price of the access technology, service take rate, revenue per customer*Default for basic results
Key Results of Business Case 601/23/9812Techno-Economics of Multimedia Networks* ISDN not fully comparable, since the service is not the same.NPV expressed in kECUs (discounted at 5%)Inv/sub = Total discounted investment divided by the number of connected subscribers at year 2007
Sheet: Assumptions&Basics
Sheet: BasicTable
Sheet: BasicTable (old)
Sheet: CashBalanceData
Sheet: CashBalanceChart
Sheet: InvPerUser
Sheet: InvPerUserChart
Sheet: SensitivityDataEnhServ
Sheet: RevenueSensChart
Sheet: PenetSensChart
Sheet: InvPerUserChart (2)
ISDN
ADSL
HFC
LMDS
ServiceEB
6.4
20.0
20.0
20.0
Tariff multiplier
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
Service scenario
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
NPV
1032028.1424781159
481112.2393097314
-649659.9464700017
2305503.8772580987
IRR
0.1992982262263832
0.09393427092103594
0.02549704420263426
0.2646552731135307
RestValue
866299.3799160854
501209.1417890596
918583.2823940441
1100323.766649825
TotalDiscountedRunningCost
5218116.644645393
6336257.156117507
5897202.9493409665
5298354.645851167
TotalDiscountedInvestment
2403678.8574635736
4036298.040774186
5862355.949933044
3617613.3216842813
RunningCostToInvestmentRatio
2.170887607736289
1.5698189509568958
1.005944197129197
1.4645994954995272
InvestmentPerConnectedCustomer
359.9281101654132
591.5861368268656
793.3599065728771
539.7251382286307
DiscInvPerConnectedCustomer
309.9521415169018
520.4768589006043
755.9453191403022
466.48785579423355
TotalDiscountedRevenue
8121990.973722456
1.054596850126133E7
1.054596850126133E7
1.054596850126133E7
Basic service
Enhanced service
NPV
IRR
Inv/sub
NPV
IRR
Inv/sub
-
-
-
ADSL
480.0
0.09393427092103594
0.15172712225368742
610.0
HFC
-650.0
0.02549704420263426
0.03046530373769203
920.0
LMDS
2310.0
0.2646552731135307
0.12949445085141637
720.0
Basic service
Enhanced service
IRR
NPV
Inv/sub
IRR
NPV
Inv/sub
-
-
-
ADSL
HFC
0.05870013299982475
LMDS
0.1808707970234355
ISDN
-453.93086687685513
-647.355306054632
-760.3015587299186
-803.2743122388102
-745.3713046934475
-602.3258768275083
-396.2115093926027
-149.08259053069375
123.73410466829012
395.74560543097766
ADSL
-1055.1222842539196
-1247.8440041293436
-1511.5242872677184
-1443.312740224052
-1362.3344102747362
-1062.2421795206192
-773.4276649710687
-365.15113104904026
38.46196865469957
411.0148755103261
HFC
-4336.231381410539
-4287.428200350067
-4104.7669022745185
-3766.0878300361296
-3323.1990126552732
-2788.2701368750722
-2190.1207243546023
-1567.1375891476173
-944.7157674491766
-336.0918712221093
LMDS
-783.4102378245052
-940.4851473117304
-1034.7478915835113
-1024.5753167877722
-909.2542096169384
-626.1987992747934
-195.6121078065856
333.27291688239865
908.613546387692
1494.363652301879
-453930.86687685514
-647355.3060546321
-760301.5587299186
-803274.3122388102
-745371.3046934475
-602325.8768275083
-396211.5093926027
-149082.59053069376
123734.10466829012
395745.60543097765
-1055122.2842539195
-1247844.0041293437
-1511524.2872677185
-1443312.740224052
-1362334.4102747361
-1062242.179520619
-773427.6649710687
-365151.13104904024
38461.968654699565
411014.87551032606
-4336231.381410539
-4287428.200350067
-4104766.9022745187
-3766087.83003613
-3323199.012655273
-2788270.136875072
-2190120.7243546024
-1567137.5891476173
-944715.7674491766
-336091.8712221093
-783410.2378245052
-940485.1473117304
-1034747.8915835114
-1024575.3167877721
-909254.2096169384
-626198.7992747934
-195612.1078065856
333272.91688239865
908613.5463876921
1494363.6523018791
1998.0
1998.0
1998.0
1998.0
1999.0
1999.0
1999.0
1999.0
2000.0
2000.0
2000.0
2000.0
2001.0
2001.0
2001.0
2001.0
2002.0
2002.0
2002.0
2002.0
2003.0
2003.0
2003.0
2003.0
2004.0
2004.0
2004.0
2004.0
2005.0
2005.0
2005.0
2005.0
2006.0
2006.0
2006.0
2006.0
2007.0
2007.0
2007.0
2007.0
-453.93086687685513
-894.7369975738062
-4175.846094730425
-1558.1316410166849
-647.355306054632
-1108.2312021070593
-4113.816238454917
-1843.1737800924584
-760.3015587299186
-1334.8237150390755
-4220.906298121962
-1993.5111889547368
-803.2743122388102
-1232.4916439724275
-3784.016363253217
-2002.4788514190043
-745.3713046934475
-954.8694050224511
-3390.5281943473433
-1761.0532021111892
-602.3258768275083
-483.12840814529966
-2621.809855883112
-1410.1846109862036
-396.2115093926027
-9.510174561902415
-2024.1291649755233
-887.4645284235341
-149.08259053069375
561.170268496464
-1217.1404941674261
-192.19423747806601
123.73410466829012
1121.4409370678436
-437.43945138764286
515.9922153943288
395.74560543097766
1680.0114593150247
344.27852479710583
1260.739460989852
ISDN
617.6497528991557
579.4725904669217
516.4267296318988
468.1946875313627
424.7853470246029
395.6145629562973
378.7205175436913
369.3859764706442
363.304630263631
359.9281101654133
ADSL
1498.5387363573122
1180.4971927221452
1034.3616860913855
847.9251638695583
757.0955789884473
676.1333875745012
643.683755782266
615.585043833157
600.05329409644
591.5861368268656
HFC
5660.822807176434
3433.073615890674
2222.9534835126924
1561.7277500295784
1203.7470090013585
1005.4115241745492
897.564