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AC226 OPTIMUM 1/26.1.1998/BTO 12th Concertation meeting November 98 12th Concertation meeting Nov. 98 AC 226/ OPTIMUM Project

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Text of AC226 OPTIMUM 1/26.1.1998/BTO 12th Concertation meeting November 98 12th Concertation meeting Nov....

  • 12th Concertation meeting Nov. 98

    AC 226/ OPTIMUMProject

  • OUTLINEProject presentationObjectives for OPTIMUMPlanned work and AchievementsAnalyse 6 business casesWorkshop and Delphi surveyRisk assessment of market and technologiesGuidelinesOPTIMUM guidelinesACTS guidelinesEURESCOM guidelines

  • OPTIMUM PartnerTELENOR RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT,, NorwayINTELLSERVE LTD, Greece JVH INTERNATIONAL, BelgiumFIRMA H. DANIELSEN, NorwayFRANCE TELECOM, FranceDASSAULT ELECTRONIQUE, FranceARISTEL, FranceELIOS, FranceM3G, FranceSYSTEMES G, FranceENST B, FranceCENTRO STUDI E LABORATORI TELECOMUNICAZIONI SPA, ItalyUNIVERSIDADE DE AVEIRO, Portugal PLURICOM, PortugalNOKIA CORPORATION, FinlandTELECOM FINLAND, FinlandHELSINKI TELEPHONE CORPORATION, FinlandKONINKLIJKE PTT NETHERLAND NV, The Netherlands TELE DENMARK, DenmarkDEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG, GermanyDATTEL AS, Czech Republic

  • OPTIMUM OBJECTIVEContribution to guidelines and recommendations for the introduction of advanced multimedia communications networks and services based on tech-evaluation of business cases.The business cases are based on inputs from ACTS field trials and projects, expertise of specialised SMEs and market and technology evolution.Business cases are evaluated with the Tool and methodology from R2087/ TITAN and OPTIMUM project

  • Role of OPTIMUM

  • The OPTIMUM Information FlowNPVIRRPayback PeriodEconomic InputsCash flows, Profit & loss accountsGeometric ModelServicesArchitecturesYear 0Year 1Year nYear m. . .Demand for the Telecommunications ServicesDBRevenuesOA&MCostsLife Cycle CostFirst Installed CostInvestmentsRisk Assessment

  • Techno-Economic Evaluation ProcessCase definitionService parametersArchitecture, dimensioningCost informationModelling and calculation of resultsAnalysis of results

  • OPTIMUM BUSINESS CASESSMEs located in an industrial parkSMEs with a common sectorial profile spread in a wide geographical areaTele-medicineTele-learningCompetitive Access ProviderEconomics of Multimedia Service Upgrades

  • Business Case 6Economics of Multimedia Service UpgradesEvaluates the viability of fast access to the Internet and to other information sourcesAccess speed from 64kbit/s up to 10Mbit/s Two services evaluated:Basic service (non-real time applications)Enhanced service (real time applications included)Three environments modelled:Telephone operator network using advanced digital line coding, e.g. ADSLCable television network using cable modemsLMDS radio accessSeveral service penetration scenarios evaluated10%, 20%*, 30% or 40% final penetrationRisk analysis performed on most sensitive and uncertain components:Price of the access technology, service take rate, revenue per customer*Default for basic results

  • Key Results of Business Case 601/23/9812Techno-Economics of Multimedia Networks* ISDN not fully comparable, since the service is not the same.NPV expressed in kECUs (discounted at 5%)Inv/sub = Total discounted investment divided by the number of connected subscribers at year 2007

    Sheet: Assumptions&Basics

    Sheet: BasicTable

    Sheet: BasicTable (old)

    Sheet: CashBalanceData

    Sheet: CashBalanceChart

    Sheet: InvPerUser

    Sheet: InvPerUserChart

    Sheet: SensitivityDataEnhServ

    Sheet: RevenueSensChart

    Sheet: PenetSensChart

    Sheet: InvPerUserChart (2)

    ISDN

    ADSL

    HFC

    LMDS

    ServiceEB

    6.4

    20.0

    20.0

    20.0

    Tariff multiplier

    1.0

    1.0

    1.0

    1.0

    Service scenario

    2.0

    2.0

    2.0

    2.0

    NPV

    1032028.1424781159

    481112.2393097314

    -649659.9464700017

    2305503.8772580987

    IRR

    0.1992982262263832

    0.09393427092103594

    0.02549704420263426

    0.2646552731135307

    RestValue

    866299.3799160854

    501209.1417890596

    918583.2823940441

    1100323.766649825

    TotalDiscountedRunningCost

    5218116.644645393

    6336257.156117507

    5897202.9493409665

    5298354.645851167

    TotalDiscountedInvestment

    2403678.8574635736

    4036298.040774186

    5862355.949933044

    3617613.3216842813

    RunningCostToInvestmentRatio

    2.170887607736289

    1.5698189509568958

    1.005944197129197

    1.4645994954995272

    InvestmentPerConnectedCustomer

    359.9281101654132

    591.5861368268656

    793.3599065728771

    539.7251382286307

    DiscInvPerConnectedCustomer

    309.9521415169018

    520.4768589006043

    755.9453191403022

    466.48785579423355

    TotalDiscountedRevenue

    8121990.973722456

    1.054596850126133E7

    1.054596850126133E7

    1.054596850126133E7

    Basic service

    Enhanced service

    NPV

    IRR

    Inv/sub

    NPV

    IRR

    Inv/sub

    -

    -

    -

    ADSL

    480.0

    0.09393427092103594

    0.15172712225368742

    610.0

    HFC

    -650.0

    0.02549704420263426

    0.03046530373769203

    920.0

    LMDS

    2310.0

    0.2646552731135307

    0.12949445085141637

    720.0

    Basic service

    Enhanced service

    IRR

    NPV

    Inv/sub

    IRR

    NPV

    Inv/sub

    -

    -

    -

    ADSL

    HFC

    0.05870013299982475

    LMDS

    0.1808707970234355

    ISDN

    -453.93086687685513

    -647.355306054632

    -760.3015587299186

    -803.2743122388102

    -745.3713046934475

    -602.3258768275083

    -396.2115093926027

    -149.08259053069375

    123.73410466829012

    395.74560543097766

    ADSL

    -1055.1222842539196

    -1247.8440041293436

    -1511.5242872677184

    -1443.312740224052

    -1362.3344102747362

    -1062.2421795206192

    -773.4276649710687

    -365.15113104904026

    38.46196865469957

    411.0148755103261

    HFC

    -4336.231381410539

    -4287.428200350067

    -4104.7669022745185

    -3766.0878300361296

    -3323.1990126552732

    -2788.2701368750722

    -2190.1207243546023

    -1567.1375891476173

    -944.7157674491766

    -336.0918712221093

    LMDS

    -783.4102378245052

    -940.4851473117304

    -1034.7478915835113

    -1024.5753167877722

    -909.2542096169384

    -626.1987992747934

    -195.6121078065856

    333.27291688239865

    908.613546387692

    1494.363652301879

    -453930.86687685514

    -647355.3060546321

    -760301.5587299186

    -803274.3122388102

    -745371.3046934475

    -602325.8768275083

    -396211.5093926027

    -149082.59053069376

    123734.10466829012

    395745.60543097765

    -1055122.2842539195

    -1247844.0041293437

    -1511524.2872677185

    -1443312.740224052

    -1362334.4102747361

    -1062242.179520619

    -773427.6649710687

    -365151.13104904024

    38461.968654699565

    411014.87551032606

    -4336231.381410539

    -4287428.200350067

    -4104766.9022745187

    -3766087.83003613

    -3323199.012655273

    -2788270.136875072

    -2190120.7243546024

    -1567137.5891476173

    -944715.7674491766

    -336091.8712221093

    -783410.2378245052

    -940485.1473117304

    -1034747.8915835114

    -1024575.3167877721

    -909254.2096169384

    -626198.7992747934

    -195612.1078065856

    333272.91688239865

    908613.5463876921

    1494363.6523018791

    1998.0

    1998.0

    1998.0

    1998.0

    1999.0

    1999.0

    1999.0

    1999.0

    2000.0

    2000.0

    2000.0

    2000.0

    2001.0

    2001.0

    2001.0

    2001.0

    2002.0

    2002.0

    2002.0

    2002.0

    2003.0

    2003.0

    2003.0

    2003.0

    2004.0

    2004.0

    2004.0

    2004.0

    2005.0

    2005.0

    2005.0

    2005.0

    2006.0

    2006.0

    2006.0

    2006.0

    2007.0

    2007.0

    2007.0

    2007.0

    -453.93086687685513

    -894.7369975738062

    -4175.846094730425

    -1558.1316410166849

    -647.355306054632

    -1108.2312021070593

    -4113.816238454917

    -1843.1737800924584

    -760.3015587299186

    -1334.8237150390755

    -4220.906298121962

    -1993.5111889547368

    -803.2743122388102

    -1232.4916439724275

    -3784.016363253217

    -2002.4788514190043

    -745.3713046934475

    -954.8694050224511

    -3390.5281943473433

    -1761.0532021111892

    -602.3258768275083

    -483.12840814529966

    -2621.809855883112

    -1410.1846109862036

    -396.2115093926027

    -9.510174561902415

    -2024.1291649755233

    -887.4645284235341

    -149.08259053069375

    561.170268496464

    -1217.1404941674261

    -192.19423747806601

    123.73410466829012

    1121.4409370678436

    -437.43945138764286

    515.9922153943288

    395.74560543097766

    1680.0114593150247

    344.27852479710583

    1260.739460989852

    ISDN

    617.6497528991557

    579.4725904669217

    516.4267296318988

    468.1946875313627

    424.7853470246029

    395.6145629562973

    378.7205175436913

    369.3859764706442

    363.304630263631

    359.9281101654133

    ADSL

    1498.5387363573122

    1180.4971927221452

    1034.3616860913855

    847.9251638695583

    757.0955789884473

    676.1333875745012

    643.683755782266

    615.585043833157

    600.05329409644

    591.5861368268656

    HFC

    5660.822807176434

    3433.073615890674

    2222.9534835126924

    1561.7277500295784

    1203.7470090013585

    1005.4115241745492

    897.564

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