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From vision to reality
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Postal Services 3.0TM From Vision to Reality Post-Expo 2011 - Stuttgart Dirk Palder, Vice President September 26, 2011
Today’s agenda
© 2011 Capgemini - All rights reserved
2 2011-09 POSTAL SERVICES 3.0-DIRK PALDER OHNE VIDEO-V3_EDIT.PPTX
Agenda
* The digital world driving change
* Impact on the postal industry
* Need for business model change
* What? Content
* How to change? Business Transformation – Capgemini’s 5E Model
Digitalization – revolution The world is changing faster and offering more surprises than ever
© 2011 Capgemini - All rights reserved
3 2011-09 POSTAL SERVICES 3.0-DIRK PALDER OHNE VIDEO-V3_EDIT.PPTX
Source: Gartner, YouTube, Twitter
In 2013, there will be more mobile internet users (1.82 bn) than fixed
users (1.78 bn)
Over 660 million Skype users -
if the VoIP leader Skype were a carrier, it would be
the largest in the world
70% increase YoY on mobile banking
As of 2010, Facebook passed the mark of 500 million users – if it was a country, it would be the world’s third largest after
China and India
35 hours of video uploaded to YouTube per minute – the equivalent of 150,000+ full length movies in theaters
each week
With 13%, social networking takes the largest percentage on the worldwide share of online
time – this category did not exist 5 years ago
Blackberry needed 300+ days to sell 1 million
devices – of the iPhone 4 1.5 million units were in a
single day
110 Mio tweets on Twitter per day
VIDEO
Internet speed/ penetration rate (2010)
Internet speed and penetration
The adoption rate of the internet is directly related to the increase in download rates especially in Europe and North America
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Internet Penetration Download Speed (KBPS)
North America
Europe APAC
Dow
nload Speed (in K
BPS)
Inte
rnet
Pen
etra
tion
(%)
Sources: CPRDT Lab Analysis, www.internetworldstats.com, www.speedtests.net.
Global Avg. Download rate - 4077
© 2011 Capgemini - All rights reserved
4 2011-09 POSTAL SERVICES 3.0-DIRK PALDER OHNE VIDEO-V3_EDIT.PPTX
Mobile phone: developments
§ fastest growth rates in India and China
§ Smartphones are catching up
§ 296.6 million smartphone units were sold
§ MORE than PC & Labtops together
§ Postal companies usage by developing
innovative smart apps and mobile postage
§ However, postal companies have not
integrated “mobile” at the core of their
strategies
Mobile penetration/ smartphone usage The world is going mobile, and smartphones are outperforming PCs
Key highlights
-‐10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0%20%40%60%80%
100%120%140%160%180%
Mobile Penetration, 2009(%) Mobile Subscriber Base Growth (2009 over 2008)
Mobile penetration and growth (2009)
Source: CPRDT Lab Analysis, www.gartner.com, www.itu.int, www.morganstanley.com.
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013EDesktop PCs Notebook PCs Smartphone
2012E: Inflection point Smartphone > Total PCs
Global units sold – PCs + notebooks vs. smartphones
Pie
ces
(in M
illio
ns)
© 2011 Capgemini - All rights reserved
5 2011-09 POSTAL SERVICES 3.0-DIRK PALDER OHNE VIDEO-V3_EDIT.PPTX
Digital Transformations are about substantial changes both on the IT as well as on the business side
© 2011 Capgemini - All rights reserved
6
Digital Transformation – definition
§ 50% business & 50% IT transformation § Most relevant for companies where IT has
a significant impact § Based on key IT innovations/
IT architecture insights § Targeting substantial changes in the way
business is done § Challenging business strategy from an IT
perspective
What Digital Transformations are ... What Digital Transformations are NOT ...
§ Another name for IT strategy or IT organization projects – this may be a module of a Digital Transformation
§ Another name for a business transformation
§ Another name for a concurrent transformation – this may be a result/ part of a Digital Transformation
§ Incremental enhancements on the IT demand or supply side
2011-09 POSTAL SERVICES 3.0-DIRK PALDER OHNE VIDEO-V3_EDIT.PPTX
Main characteristics of the digital world The digital world is marked by five main characteristics
© 2011 Capgemini - All rights reserved
7
Easy access to relevant information available anywhere and anytime
INFORMATION ADVANTAGE
1
SOCIAL VIRTUALISATION
2 Convergence of real and virtual social life, limitless and borderless around the globe
TRUE MOBILITY 3 Everywhere online - Internet of things meets
the internet of mobility with no speed limit
CONNECTIVITY 4 Standardized connectors to/ with everything
enabling wireless and contactless pay & play
PERVASIVE TECHNOLOGY
5 Ubiquitous usage of technology becoming an ever more integrated part of our lives
2011-09 POSTAL SERVICES 3.0-DIRK PALDER OHNE VIDEO-V3_EDIT.PPTX
Today’s agenda
© 2011 Capgemini - All rights reserved
8 2011-09 POSTAL SERVICES 3.0-DIRK PALDER OHNE VIDEO-V3_EDIT.PPTX
Agenda
* The digital world driving change
* Impact on the postal industry
* Need for business model change
* What? Content
* How to change? Business Transformation – Capgemini’s 5E Model
Usually, a dominating new technology quickly substitutes the legacy one after a slow start – however, in terms of letter and email things look different
© 2011 Capgemini - All rights reserved
9 2011-09 POSTAL SERVICES 3.0-DIRK PALDER OHNE VIDEO-V3_EDIT.PPTX
Source: Capgemini
Audio tape t
Volume
CD-Rom
Letter
1998
Distribution curve of a new technology
0
50
100
150
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450
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009(E) 2010(E)
115 117 108 106 104 102
313 317 316 305 305 303
Europe Rest
Despite expectations of digital communication replacing traditional letter, the decrease in mail volumes is relatively slow Email vs. letters/ mails
Emails per user/ day Mail volume development (in bn)
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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
15
50
90114
140
93
8
15
28
43
54
42
Business E-‐mails Consumer E-‐mails
194
135
412
157
118
65
23
434 428 425
-16.5%
405 -0.9%
Num
ber o
f Em
ails
Mai
l Ite
ms
(Bill
ions
)
Year Year
Source: Sources: CPRDT Lab Analysis, The Radicati Group, “Business/Consumer Email Traffic Historical and Forecast, 2000-2014“, January 2010, UPU.int, “Postal-Statistics“, 2010.
The substitution of the letter is driven by a mix of changes in communication and lack of innovation.
Impact of technology in the postal market? Impact of technology and change in usage
© 2011 Capgemini - All rights reserved
11
Do not extent the substitution discussion into a self fulfilling prophecy
Dilution of letter content instead of substitution
Increase innovation capabilities to combine the worlds: mail-social-mobile
Increase Adaptability of postal system on volumes changes
Enhance your service portfolio and stop discussion around substituion
CORREOS - INNOVATION - TRANSFORMATION - POSTAL SERVICES 3.0.PPTX
Today’s agenda
© 2011 Capgemini - All rights reserved
12 2011-09 POSTAL SERVICES 3.0-DIRK PALDER OHNE VIDEO-V3_EDIT.PPTX
Agenda
* The digital world driving change
* Impact on the postal industry
* Need for business model change
* What? Content
* How to change? Business Transformation – Capgemini’s 5E Model
The digital and sustainability challenge is the positioning several business
© 2011 Capgemini - All rights reserved
13 2011-09 POSTAL SERVICES 3.0-DIRK PALDER OHNE VIDEO-V3_EDIT.PPTX
Segments
Companies
startups
Three big waves in the past Innovation in the postal market, but what is next…..?
© 2011 Capgemini - All rights reserved
14
Standardization of letters § Formats § Weights § Address
Automation of sorting
§ Linehaul § Last mile
Standardization
Industrialization
Multi-channel § Access § Multiple solutions
franking, etc.
Customization
2011-09 POSTAL SERVICES 3.0-DIRK PALDER OHNE VIDEO-V3_EDIT.PPTX
Reinventing the business model for a postal operator is now a MUST: Postal Services3.0TM Framework
© 2011 Capgemini - All rights reserved
15 2011-09 POSTAL SERVICES 3.0-DIRK PALDER OHNE VIDEO-V3_EDIT.PPTX
Postal Services3.0TM
Framework
“Innovation distinguishes between a leader and a follower.”�
Weakness: Who could enter the postal market?
Strength: How to leverage the postal brand reputation?
© 2011 Capgemini - All rights reserved
17
What would you expect a postal operator will look like after all our experience with Facebook, Twitter, Flikr,…
Threat: What will happen if nothing changes?
Opportunity: What could be the new CORE of a post - greenfield?
2011-09 POSTAL SERVICES 3.0-DIRK PALDER OHNE VIDEO-V3_EDIT.PPTX
SWOT-Analysis
Today’s agenda
© 2011 Capgemini - All rights reserved
18 2011-09 POSTAL SERVICES 3.0-DIRK PALDER OHNE VIDEO-V3_EDIT.PPTX
Agenda
* The digital world driving change
* Impact on the postal industry
* Need for business model change
* What? Content
* How to change? Business Transformation – Capgemini’s 5E Model
PMSS – Postal Market Service Spider But: what are you famous for and who is your competitor?
© 2011 Capgemini - All rights reserved
19 2011-09 POSTAL SERVICES 3.0-DIRK PALDER OHNE VIDEO-V3_EDIT.PPTX
Distribution
Creation
Make Selection
Customer Targeting
Core Postal
Mail Parcel
Communication Fulfillment
Potential Postal Service3.0 – Scenarios: Defining the WHAT
You have the choice – but you should define systematically your market, e.g. BMFO method – Building Market Focused Organizations
© 2011 Capgemini - All rights reserved
20
THE integrated e-fulfillment provider of the country (e.g. InPost/ Saudi Post/ Malaysia Post)
THE communication/ CRM factory for...
THE service broker and even BUTLER for SMEs and consumers
THE logistics provider for…
2011-09 POSTAL SERVICES 3.0-DIRK PALDER OHNE VIDEO-V3_EDIT.PPTX
Today’s agenda
© 2011 Capgemini - All rights reserved
21 2011-09 POSTAL SERVICES 3.0-DIRK PALDER OHNE VIDEO-V3_EDIT.PPTX
Agenda
* The digital world driving change
* Impact on the postal industry
* Need for business model change
* What? Content
* How to change? Business Transformation – Capgemini’s 5E Model
Capgemini’s 5Es of Business Transformation
Our Business Transformation approach addresses all levels and aspects of a transformation: we call it the INFINITUM
Envision the Future.
Energise People.
Expedite Growth. Enhance Competitiveness.
Establish Key Capabilities.
Excellence, sustainability and speed are key characteristics of our quality-driven approach. © 2011 Capgemini - All rights reserved
22 2011-09 POSTAL SERVICES 3.0-DIRK PALDER OHNE VIDEO-V3_EDIT.PPTX
Defining the right mix to leverage the core brand competence
© 2011 Capgemini - All rights reserved
23 2011-09 POSTAL SERVICES 3.0-DIRK PALDER OHNE VIDEO-V3_EDIT.PPTX
Geographic
Business Model
Custom Segmentation
Organization Cluster
People
Capabilities
Systems Style
Sourcing Collaboration
Business Transformation Streams
Conception Design Realization Implementation B U S I N E S S
I T
From good to great –traditional transformation programs vs. Digital Transformation
Digital Transformation dissolves the traditional view on classic business/ IT transformation programs
© 2011 Capgemini - All rights reserved
24
Traditional Transformation Programs
Business strategy refinement driven by IT architecture
Business strategy-
driven release
plan
Heavy handholding post go-live
reviews
Digital Transformations
2011-09 POSTAL SERVICES 3.0-DIRK PALDER OHNE VIDEO-V3_EDIT.PPTX
Success factors for building new solutions Organization: findings from a solution business study
© 2011 Capgemini - All rights reserved
25
Separate P&L
Mixed team sourcing
High-potentials in management
Focus on core capabilities for differentiation
2011-09 POSTAL SERVICES 3.0-DIRK PALDER OHNE VIDEO-V3_EDIT.PPTX
Style: Its also about age and working characteristics …
Source: Adapted from IBM report: “Driving Workforce Productivity by Enabling Social Connection” (June 2009)
© 2011 Capgemini - All rights reserved
26 2011-09 POSTAL SERVICES 3.0-DIRK PALDER OHNE VIDEO-V3_EDIT.PPTX
Traditionalist (55-65)
Boomers (45-55)
Gen X (30-45)
Millennials (18-39)
Training The hard way Too much and I’ll have
Required to keep me
Continuous and expected
Learning style Classroom Facilitated Independent Collaborative and networked
Communication style Top-down Guarded Hub and spoke Collaborative
Problem-solving Hierarchical Horizontal Independent Collaborative
Decision-making Seeks approval Team informed Team included Team decided
Leadership style Command and control Get out of the way Coach Partner
Feedback No news is good news Once per year Weekly/ daily On demand
Technology use Uncomfortable Unsure Unable to work without it
Unfathomable if not provided
Job changing Unwise Sets me back Necessary Part of my daily routine
© 2011 Capgemini - All rights reserved
27 2011-09 POSTAL SERVICES 3.0-DIRK PALDER OHNE VIDEO-V3_EDIT.PPTX
“Sometimes when you innovate, you make mistakes. It is best to admit them quickly, and get on with improving your other innovations.”
Lessons learned to define the Postal Services 3.0TM
© 2011 Capgemini - All rights reserved
28 2011-09 POSTAL SERVICES 3.0-DIRK PALDER OHNE VIDEO-V3_EDIT.PPTX
* Letter mail will have a long future because it is different, but with decreasing volumes over time
* It is better to cannibalize yourself using different channels and technologies
* All postal operators have a strong brand asset: TRUST
* Getting into the evoked set of relevant digital brands is a MUST to stay in the race
§ Being the neutral mediator is the classical brand awareness of a postal operator. However, it could be leveraged even better. Defining the options: - communication broker/ platform/ media manager - general data broker (new business models) - butler = manager of services for SMEs and households - fulfillment provider = solution business ² or SIMPLY with one quote: CONNECTING PEOPLE
Innovation
Transformation
Postal Services 3.0
PEOPLE MATTER, RESULTS COUNT. CAPGEMINI
© 2011 Capgemini - All rights reserved
29 2011-09 POSTAL SERVICES 3.0-DIRK PALDER OHNE VIDEO-V3_EDIT.PPTX
What could be your contribution to the postal market? CG Global Postal Team – The Collaborative Business Experience
Postal Services 3.0TM at www.capgemini-postalservices.com
© 2011 Capgemini - All rights reserved
30 2011-09 POSTAL SERVICES 3.0-DIRK PALDER OHNE VIDEO-V3_EDIT.PPTX
Capgemini Rheinpalais
Konrad-Adenauer-Ufer 7 D- 50668 Cologne
Germany
Tel. +49 221 912644-100 [email protected]
Twitter:@DirkPalder LinkedIn: Dirk Palder
www.capgemini-postalservices.com
Dirk Palder
Vice President Global Postal Team