Post-ProcessingPost-Processing at DWD at DWD Sebastian Trepte (FEZE)

• Grid-based forecasts COSMO, GME

- derived products (thunderstorm ind., weather-related elements, vorticity, advection of temperature, …)- cross-sections through model domain- meteograms at selected grid points- prognostic temps at selected grid points

COSMO General Meeting, WG 4 post-processing methods, 8.9.2009

COSMO-EU, COSMO-DE, GME, IFS (ECMWF)

• Grid-based or rural district based probability forecasts

- COSMO-DE interpretation (smoothing/calibration: Neighbourhood method)- SRNWP-PEPS (Ensemble of 23 European regional models incl. COSMO-EU)- BlitzMOS (GME, Germany)- WarnMOS (GME and IFS, Germany)

• Object-related forecasts

- CellMOS (GME, Germany)

COSMO General Meeting, WG 4 post-processing methods, 8.9.2009

Location forecasts

• DMO → stations (COSMO-EU, GME)

- transformation into time series “optimized” DMO (site-specific properties altitude, mountain, coast, sea, …)

• OOG (Objective Optimized Guidance)

- model combination and weighting (MOS, COSMO-EU, -DE, GME, IFS)- corrections for model deficiencies: nowcasting systems, current observations

COSMO General Meeting, WG 4 post-processing methods, 8.9.2009

• AutoSWIS (Road Weather Information System)

- forecasts of weather and road surface conditions (MOS, COSMO-EU, GME) energy balance model (observations at stations and automatic systems

at the roads)

• Aviation-related products

- MOS-AUTOTAF (GME, Germany+)- Toptherm

intensity of thermal lift (COSMO-EU vertical profiles, temperature, wind, humidity, radiation and precipitation)

- ADWICEAdvanced diagnostic and warning system for aircrafticing environments (COSMO-EU, observations, radar)

Location forecasts (cont.)

COSMO General Meeting, WG 4 post-processing methods, 8.9.2009

Standard Model Output Statistics (MOS) at DWDStandard Model Output Statistics (MOS) at DWD

Model forecasts(long-term time series)

Observations at stations(long-term time series)

Multiple Linear Regression(minimize RMSE)

MOS coefficients

Dev

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MOS forecast

Ope

ratio

nal

fore

cast

currentmodel forecasts

currentobservations

MOS approaches at DWDMOS approaches at DWD

• Station data (Standard MOS) GME-MOS IFS-MOS MOSMIX (mixing of IFS- and GME-MOS) AUTOTAF (forecasts for airports based on GME-MOS)

• Station data to rural districts WarnMOS (weather warning guidance based on GME and IFS)

• At grid points BlitzMOS (lightnings and thunderstorms)

• At moving systems CellMOS (thunderstorm detecting and tracking)

Kind of MOS forecasts:

• Deterministic• Probabilistic• Derived elements (e.g. weather conditions)