Population Ageing in the ACTIssues and Analysis

ii

© Australian Capital Territory, Canberra, July 2010 This work is copyright. Apart from any use permitted under the Copyright

Act 1968, no part may be reproduced by any process without written permission from the Territory Records Office, Community and Infrastructure

Services, Territory and Municipal Services, ACT Government. GPO Box 158, Canberra City, ACT, 2601

Produced by: Policy Division, ACT Chief Minister‟s Department Contact: ACT Government Demographer

Policy Division Chief Minister‟s Department

ACT Government GPO Box 158 Canberra City ACT 2601

ACTDemography@act.gov.au

This publication has been prepared by officers of the Chief Minister‟s Department, ACT Government. It is believed that the information is correct

and reliable, but neither the authors nor the Department give warranty in relation hereto and no liability is accepted by the authors or the Department, or any other person who assisted in the preparation of the publication, for

errors and omissions, loss or damage suffered as a result of any person acting in reliance thereon.

iii

Contents

Contents iii

Figures v

Tables vii

1 Introduction 1

2 ACT Demographics 2

2.1 ACT Population – Historical 2

2.2 ACT Population – Projections 3

2.3 Limitations of Data 8

3 Economic Implications of Ageing 9

3.1 ACT Economy 9

3.2 Contributors to Economic Growth – Population,

Participation and Productivity 11

3.3 Dependency Ratio 14

4 Fiscal Implications of Ageing 15

4.1 Age as a Driver of Public Budgets 15

4.2 Projected Impact of Ageing on ACT Government

Expenditure 15

4.2.1 Health 16

4.2.2 Education 17

4.2.3 Other expenditure 18

5 Policy Implications of Ageing 19

5.1 Housing 19

5.1.1 Household Membership 19

5.1.2 Household Tenure 20

5.2 Housing Cost 20

5.2.1 ACT Ageing Policy on Housing 21

5.3 Transport 21

5.3.1 Drivers 21

5.3.2 Driving Risk 22

5.3.3 Licence Termination 22

5.3.4 Alternative Transport 23

5.3.5 ACT Ageing Policy on Transport 23

5.4 Education and Training 23

5.4.1 Education and Weight 23

5.4.2 Smoking and Education 24

5.4.3 Alcohol Use and Education 25

5.5 Health 26

5.5.1 Medical Conditions 26

5.5.2 Anxiety and Depression 26

5.5.3 Physical Activity 27

5.5.4 Alcohol Use 28

5.5.5 Body Weight 29

5.5.6 Smoking 29

5.5.7 ACT Ageing Policy on Health and Wellbeing 30

5.6 Paid and Unpaid Work 30

iv

5.6.1 Paid and Unpaid Work 30

5.6.2 Caring 31

5.6.3 Carer Wellbeing 32

5.6.4 Volunteering 33

5.6.5 Benefits for Older Adults 33

5.6.6 Duration and Type of Volunteer Work 34

5.6.7 ACT Ageing Policy on Unpaid Work 34

6 References/Further Information 35

v

Figures

Figure 2.1 Annual Population Growth Rates, ACT and Australia, September Quarter

2000-2009.................................................................................................... 2

Figure 2.2 Age Structure of the Projected Population of the ACT, 2007-2056 ......... 4

Figure 2.3 Age Structure of the Projected Population of South Eastern NSW, 2007-

2036 ............................................................................................................ 5

Figure 2.4 Percentage Increase in the Projected Population of the ACT by Age,

2007-2056.................................................................................................... 6

Figure 3.1 Actual and Expected Population Growth and Real GSP, ACT ................ 10

Figure 3.2 Projected Growth in Population and Real GSP/GDP Growth, ACT and

Australia ...................................................................................................... 10

Figure 3.3 Contributors to Growth in Real GSP per person, ACT – Population,

Participation and Productivity ......................................................................... 12

Figure 3.4 Actual and Projected Unemployment Rate, ACT ................................. 13

Figure 3.5 Actual and Projected Labour Force Participation Rate, ACT .................. 13

Figure 3.6 ACT Dependency Ratio Projections, 2007-2056 ................................. 14

Figure 3.7 OECD Dependency Ratio, 2000 and 2050 ......................................... 14

Figure 4.1 Index of Government Spending on Education and Hospitals (population

average = 1) ............................................................................................... 15

Figure 4.2 Projected Average Annual Growth in Real ACT Government Spending,

2009-10 to 2049-50 ..................................................................................... 16

Figure 4.3 ACT Government Spending as a Proportion of GSP ............................ 17

Figure 4.4 Projected Real ACT Government Spending ........................................ 18

Figure 5.1 Body Mass Index Category by Education Among the 60-64 Age Cohort

Across Years ................................................................................................ 24

Figure 5.2 Smoker Status by Education Among the 60-64 Age Cohort Across Years

.................................................................................................................. 25

Figure 5.3 Alcohol Use by Education Among the 60-64 Age Cohort Across Years ... 25

Figure 5.4 Self–Reported Medical Conditions Among the 60-64 Age Cohort Across

Years .......................................................................................................... 26

Figure 5.5 Physical Activity by Gender Among 60-64 Age Cohort Across Years ..... 28

Figure 5.6 Alcohol Use by Gender Among 60-64 Age Cohort Across Years ............ 28

Figure 5.7 BMI by Gender Among 60-64 Age Cohort Across Years ...................... 29

Figure 5.8 Smoker Status by Gender Among 60-64 Age Cohort Across Years ....... 30

vi

Figure 5.9 Employment Status by Gender Among the 60-64 Age Cohort Across

Years .......................................................................................................... 31

Figure 5.10 Duration of Providing Care Among the 60-64 Age Cohort in 2005-06 . 32

Figure 5.11 Hours Spent Care–Giving Per Week Among the 60-64 Age Cohort in

2005-06 ...................................................................................................... 32

Figure 5.12 History of Volunteering Among the 60-64 Age Cohort in 2005-06 ...... 34

vii

Tables

Table 2.1 Population Trends for Major Canberra Districts .................................... 7

Table 2.2 Projected Percentage Increase in Population by Age Group, South Eastern

Region NSW, 2006-2036 ................................................................................ 7

Table 5.1 Household Membership Status for the ACT by Age and Gender ............. 20

Table 5.2 Current Home Tenure by Gender Among the PATH 60-64 Age Cohort in

2005-06 ...................................................................................................... 20

Table 5.3 Demographic Characteristics of ACT Older Drivers .............................. 22

Table 5.4 Percentage of Respondents by Anxiety and Depression Scores Among the

40-44 and 60-64 Age Cohorts Across Years ..................................................... 27

Table 5.5 Percentage of Respondents by Anxiety and Depression Scores Among the

60-64 Age Cohort By Gender ......................................................................... 27

Table 5.6 Characteristics and Mental Health of Substantial Caregivers

(≥5 hours care per week) and Non-caregivers (% and means) Among 60-64 Cohort

in 2005 ....................................................................................................... 33

1

1 Introduction

Although the ACT population is relatively young by national standards, like other jurisdictions across Australia (and many countries around the world) the ACT population is ageing.

An ageing population will have a range of economic, social and fiscal

implications for the ACT. However, it is important to recognise that, although an ageing ACT population will provide a number of challenges in the years ahead, it will also present new opportunities for the Territory.

This paper collates current information about the effects of ageing in the

ACT and explores some of the policy issues arising from these effects. The analysis that follows is based on the ACT Government’s own population

projections, which were released in June 2009 (ACT Government 2009a). These 50–year age by sex projections will be updated biennially by the ACT

Demographer in the Chief Minister’s Department to ensure that agencies and the community are using the most up-to-date information available in their planning and analysis. Ten-year suburb level projections are also

available, and will be updated on a similar timetable (ACT Government 2009b).

The economic and fiscal projections have been generated using the State Intergenerational Model (SIGR) developed by Access Economics. The

population projections underpinning the modelling are those prepared by the ACT Government Demographer.

The SIGR model produces 40–year projections based on actual data to 2006-07 and includes assumptions about population growth and ageing,

and a set of parameters such as technical output growth, growth in grants to States and Territories, and health price effects. The model was originally

used by the ACT Government to support its submission to the Productivity Commission Study into the Economic Implications of an Ageing Australia.

The results that follow are an update to this earlier work (ACT Government 2004).

Finally, the paper includes an overview of various sections from Demographic, Health, Lifestyle, Employment and Unpaid Work

Characteristics of Canberrans in Mid-Life and Early-Old Age (ANU 2010). This report was commissioned by the ACT Chief Minister’s Department to support the analysis presented in this paper. Information on this report can

be downloaded at www.cmd.act.gov.au.

2

2 ACT Demographics

The following chapter provides a summary of the key demographic

developments in the ACT over the last 10 years, and projections for population change over the next 50 years.

2.1 ACT Population – Historical

Although the current ACT population profile is somewhat younger than the

national average, population growth in the ACT in recent times has been slower than at the national level, while the rate of ageing has been faster.

Over the last ten years, the ACT population has grown at an average annual rate of 1.2 per cent, just below the national growth rate of 1.5 per cent

(ABS 2010a). During this period, growth from natural increase has been the major driver of population growth in the ACT with over 85 per cent of growth attributed to it.

Figure 2.1 Annual Population Growth Rates, ACT and Australia, September Quarter 2000-2009

Source: ABS (2010a).

Net interstate migration has varied widely over the last decade, but has

generally been negative. The greatest net migration out of the ACT over the decade occurred in the 12 months to June 2004, equalling 1,586 persons.

In average annual terms, all of the growth in the ACT over the last 10 years has occurred in the 15-64 and 65+ age groups, which grew by 1.2 and 3.7

per cent respectively. The 0-14 age group experienced a decline in average annual growth of -0.1 per cent. Over the same period, the number of individuals in the population aged 85+ more than doubled, growing by an

average of 7.9 per cent per year (ABS 2010b).

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

ACT Australia

3

The current population profile in the ACT, measured as the median age, is significantly younger than the national average. However, the median age

of the ACT population has been steadily growing. Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) show that at 30 June 2000, the median age in the ACT was 34.4 versus a national median age of 36.6. By

30 June 2009, the ACT median age had grown to 34.7 while the national median age reached 36.9.

The steady increase in the ACT median age over the last ten years is highlighted in the changing shares of the various age groups. At 30 June

2000, the proportion of the ACT population aged 0-14 was 20.8 per cent. However, by 30 June 2009 this had fallen to 18.5 per cent. Over the same

period, the share of ACT individuals in the 15-64 age group remained almost unchanged, increasing marginally from 71.0 to 71.1 per cent, while

the proportion of people aged 65+ increased from 8.3 per cent to 10.2 per cent.

2.2 ACT Population – Projections

The following ACT population projections are for the period 2007 to 2056.

The projections are the official ACT Government series and have been prepared by the ACT Demographer, who is responsible for demographic analysis and population forecasting.

The assumptions underpinning the projections have been determined

through consultation and discussion with ACT Government officers and the ABS, and include:

an annual increase in net migration of 1,000 persons per year;

a total fertility rate of 1.75 births per women reached in 2021 from a base rate of 1.63; and

ongoing improvement in mortality rates (ACT Government 2009a).

The ACT projections fall between the Series A and Series B projections

produced by the ABS and incorporate the latest demographic trends from the population census released by the ABS in 2006. The national data

detailed elsewhere in this report are the official ABS projections.

While these projections do not represent ―targets‖, they do provide a basis

for assessing future residential and commercial land release requirements, and they help the Government plan for housing, schools, public utilities,

health centres, aged care facilities and playgrounds.

2.2.1 Demographic Components of Population Change

Over the projection period, natural increase (births minus deaths) is anticipated to contribute approximately 73 per cent of the ACT’s population growth, with net migration (overseas and interstate migration) to contribute

the remaining 27 per cent.

4

2.2.2 Age Structure Change

Population growth is projected for all ACT age groups over the projection

period. The most notable increase in population numbers is anticipated to occur for persons between approximately 60 and 85 years of age. This

population ageing is primarily the result of larger baby boomer cohorts (those born between 1946 and 1965) gradually shifting into these older age groups, compounded by falling mortality rates.

Figure 2.2 illustrates the projected age structure of the ACT population in

the years 2007 and 2056.

Figure 2.2 Age Structure of the Projected Population of the ACT, 2007-2056

Source: ACT Government (2009a).

Figure 2.3 illustrates the projected age structure for the South Eastern Region of NSW. Many of the people living in this region of NSW use ACT

services such as hospitals, shops and schools. They also form a part of our workforce. This means demographic change in this area is of great

importance to the ACT.1

1 A future project for the Chief Minister’s Department is to further develop the concept of regional demography.

4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100+

# of Males # of Females

Age

20072056

5

Figure 2.3 Age Structure of the Projected Population of South Eastern NSW, 2007-2036

Source: NSW Government (2010).

2.2.1 Demographic profile of the ACT

The estimated resident population of the ACT was 352,189 in the September quarter 2009 (ABS 2010a). This population is projected to reach 400,000 persons by 2022; and 500,000 persons by 2050 (ACT Government

2009a).

The ACT is expected to experience significant population ageing, with those aged 85 years and over to increase by 509 per cent, reaching a total of 22,500 persons in 2056. This ageing is typical of projections elsewhere in

Australia and throughout the western world.

ACT population growth will vary by age group. Figure 2.4 illustrates the growth in the ACT’s population by age represented by the percentage increase in the projected population of each age group over the period

2007-2056. Figure 2.4 clearly demonstrates the extent of population ageing expected over the coming decades.

Between 2007 and 2056, the number of ACT children (persons aged 14 years of age and under) is projected to increase by approximately 42 per

cent. The younger working age population of persons aged 18-34 years is projected to increase by approximately 33 per cent, while the older working

age population (persons aged 35-64 years) is projected to increase by approximately 43 per cent.

4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100+

# of Males # of Females

Age

2007

2036

6

Figure 2.4 Percentage Increase in the Projected Population of the ACT by Age, 2007-2056

Source: ACT Government (2009a).

The population of persons aged 65-84 years is projected to increase by 170

per cent while the population of persons 85 years and over is projected to increase by 509 per cent. As such, the percentage of the ACT population aged 65 years and over is expected to rise from approximately 10 per cent

in 2007 to 20 per cent in 2056.

Finer-level projections have been published in ACT Population Projections for Suburbs and Districts: 2007 to 2019 (ACT Government 2009b). It was

found that, while the populations of Belconnen, Weston Creek, Gungahlin and Tuggeranong are projected to age more rapidly than other already established areas (with the median age in these districts increasing by three

years), Weston Creek is to become the district with the oldest population (with a median age of 41 years projected in 2019), driven by the high

proportion of persons aged over 85 years in this district. The established district with the youngest population in 2019 is projected to

be North Canberra with a median age of 32. This is due to the presence of tertiary education institutions in this area. Molonglo is projected to have a

median age of 29 in 2019 driven by in-migration of young families. Much of the ACT’s population growth is projected to occur in the new

development areas of Gungahlin and Molonglo, with these areas increasing by approximately 20,500 and 10,300 persons respectively (table 2.1). The

growth in these two districts alone represents over 60 per cent of the ACT’s total population growth.

Much of the population in nearby NSW work or use services in the ACT. The population changes in this area directly impact on roads, hospitals,

education and other major services provided in the ACT. The demand for different ACT services in nearby NSW varies by proximity to

the Territory. For instance, while some people live close to the ACT and commute to work daily, others may visit the ACT for health or study on an

irregular or infrequent basis. Being aware of the number of NSW persons

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

05

101520253035404550556065707580

85+

%

Age

7

using ACT services is of great importance and a number of cross border studies have been undertaken by the ACT Government (ACT Government

2004). Table 2.1 Population Trends for Major Canberra Districts

District Projected Population

Growth (2007-2019)

Median Age (Years)

Sex Ratio (% of District

Population, 2019)

2007 2019 # % 2007 2019 Males Females

North

Canberra 45,050 53,000 7,950 17.6 31 32 50.9 49.1

Belconnen 88,400 94,850 6,450 7.3 33 36 49.7 50.3

Woden Valley 33,200 35,300 2,100 6.4 39 40 48.6 51.4

Weston Creek 22,900 23,750 850 3.6 38 41 49 51

Tuggeranong 89,750 88,250 -1,500 -1.7 33 36 49.3 50.7

South

Canberra 25,200 28,950 3,750 14.9 38 38 49.9 50.1

Gungahlin – Hall 34,950 55,450 20,500 58.6 30 33 49.6 50.5

Molonglo - 10,300 10,300 - - 29 50.2 49.8

Remainder of ACT 300 300 - - 32 32 53.7 46.3

Total – ACT 339,750 390,100 50,350 14.8 35 36 49.6 50.4

Source: ACT Government (2009b).

The South Eastern Region is projected to be one of the faster growing areas of NSW (NSW Government 2010). Between 2006 and 2036, the percentage

of the population aged 65 and over is expected to rise from 15.3 per cent to 27.4 per cent.

Table 2.2 shows the percentage increase in population by age group for the South Eastern region of NSW between 2006 and 2036. It clearly highlights

the large percentage growth in the older age groups. Table 2.2 Projected Percentage Increase in Population by Age Group, South Eastern Region NSW, 2006-2036

Age group % increase Age group % increase

0-4 13 45-49 40

5-9 17 50-54 77

10-14 29 55-59 100

15-19 40 60-64 132

20-24 11 65-69 132

25-29 9 70-74 166

30-34 7 75-79 245

35-39 9 80-84 335

40-44 26 85+ 601

Source: NSW Government (2010).

8

2.3 Limitations of Data

ACT Government Population Projections are not intended to present predictions of the demographic future to any degree of reliability or precision. Instead, the population projections contained in this report are

the projected populations resulting from certain assumptions about future trends in fertility, mortality, and migration.

Future trends in fertility, mortality and migration are influenced by a variety of social, economic and political factors, and for this reason can fluctuate

significantly in the short to medium term. Due to the difficulty in predicting such fluctuations, assumptions based on long-run average fertility, mortality

and migration trends (in the form of straight lines or smooth curves) have been employed in these projections. It is anticipated that actual trends in fertility, mortality and migration will fluctuate on either side of the smooth

path of the long-run assumptions.

It should be emphasised again that ACT Government population projections do not represent ACT Government population targets. These projections

have been developed on a policy neutral basis. Consequently, the ACT Government population projections contained in this

document should not be interpreted as fixed, precise predictions of the demographic future, but instead provide an indication of population change

and its subsequent possible implications for the Territory.

2.3.1 Rounding

Population projection figures in this report are rounded to the nearest

hundred. Percentages in this report are rounded to the nearest whole number or one decimal place as appropriate. Percentages from the

Demographic, Health, Lifestyle, Employment and Unpaid Work Characteristics of Canberrans in Mid-Life and Early-Old Age (ANU 2010) are

rounded to one decimal place.

2.3.2 Years

Throughout this report, the phrase ―The population in 200x‖ (or similar)

refers to the subject as at 30 June 200x. When a year is shown as 200x-0y, this is showing the financial year or 1 July 200x to 30 June 200y.

9

3 Economic Implications of Ageing

An ageing population is an indicator of an already prosperous society; one

with the wealth and technology to ensure we live healthier and longer lives. An ageing population is not expected to diminish our material prosperity. In

fact, it will continue to improve.

In summary, the projected economic implications of an ageing ACT population are:

continuing growth of the ACT economy over the next 40 years,

measured by both real Gross State Product (GSP)2 (2.3 per cent per annum) and real GSP per person (1.4 per cent per person); and

a lower rate of growth in real GSP per person compared to the last 20 years, due mainly to slower growth in the relative size of the working age population and a significant reduction in the total labour force

participation rate.

Ageing is anticipated to slow the rate of growth by 0.2 percentage points per annum due to lower participation in the labour force.

3.1 ACT Economy

Over the next 40 years, real ACT GSP is projected to grow on average by

2.3 per cent per annum. This is composed of average annual growth in total population of 0.9 per cent and average annual growth in real GSP per person of 1.4 per cent.

Compared to the last 20 years, these projections represent a slowing in the

rate at which the ACT economy is growing. Over the last 20 years, real GSP grew by an average of 3.2 per cent per annum, due to higher average annual population growth of 1.2 per cent and faster average annual growth

in real GSP per person of 2.0 per cent.

2 Gross State Product is the total market value of goods and services produced in the ACT within a given period after deducting the cost of goods and services used up in the process of production, but before deducting allowances for the consumption of fixed capital. Thus, Gross State Product, as defined here, is 'at market prices'. It is equivalent to gross territory expenditure plus exports of goods and services less imports of goods and services.

10

Figure 3.1 Actual and Expected Population Growth and Real GSP, ACT

Source: ABS (2010a and 2010c); ACT Government projections.

Growth in the ACT economy for the next 40 years is projected to be lower than the growth for Australia as a whole. The 2010 Australian Government Intergenerational Report (IGR) projects average annual growth in

Australia’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 2.7 per cent. The primary driver of this higher economic growth is higher average population growth

of 1.2 per cent per annum. Real Australian GDP per person is only projected to grow on average 0.1 per cent per faster than real growth in ACT GSP — this is because of a higher assumed rate of productivity growth.

Figure 3.2 Projected Growth in Population and Real GSP/GDP Growth, ACT and Australia

Source: Australian Government (2010); ACT Government projections.

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

Population Real GSP per person Real GSP

Past 20 years Next 40 years

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

Population Real GSP/GDP per

person

Real GSP

ACT Australia

11

3.2 Contributors to Economic Growth – Population,

Participation and Productivity

The basic object of an economy is to increase material living standards for all of its participants. The most common measure of this is real GSP per

person.

As noted above, growth in the ACT’s GSP per person is projected to grow steadily, at an average 1.4 per cent per annum over the next 40 years. At this rate of growth, in 2049-50 real GSP per person is projected to be

74 per cent higher than it is today.

However, this average annual growth rate is 0.7 percentage points below that recorded over the previous 20 years. What then is driving this rate of growth?

The rate of growth in GSP per person is a function of three things:

population — more specifically, the population 15+ (that is, the potential

labour force) relative to the size of the total population;

participation — those who participate in the work force by choice and

opportunity;

○ this is determined by who chooses to participate in the labour force (that is, the participation rate), who can get a job (that is, the

unemployment rate), and how much they work (that is, hours worked per week); and

labour productivity — how much workers can produce per unit of time.

In the ACT, the major contributor to growth in real GSP per person over the last 20 years was labour productivity, which grew at an average of

1.5 per cent per annum over this period. Given increasing levels of physical capital and education, the same rate of

productivity growth is assumed for the next 40 years. Thus, productivity improvements are projected to remain the most important contributor to

increasing real GSP per person. The ACT’s working age population (15+) as a proportion of the total

population grew from 76.2 per cent in 1989-90 to 81.6 per cent in 2009-10. This increase in the relative size of the working age population contributed

to average growth in real GSP per person of 0.4 per cent per annum over the last 20 years.

The contribution of a growing working age population to growth in real GSP per person is projected to fall to an average of 0.1 per cent per annum over

the next 40 years. This is due to a much smaller increase in the relative size of the ACT’s working age population, from 81.6 per cent in 2009-10 to 82.8 per cent in 2049-50.

12

Figure 3.3 Contributors to Growth in Real GSP per person, ACT – Population, Participation and Productivity

Source: ABS (2010a, 2010c and 2010d); ACT Government projections.

Increasing utilisation of labour contributed an average 0.2 per cent per

annum to growth in real GSP per person over the last 20 years. This was due mainly to a significant reduction in the rate of unemployment, which fell from above 7 per cent in the mid–1990s to under 3 per cent in the mid–

2000s. The rate of labour force participation was fairly steady over the last 20 years and so did not have a significant impact on growth in real GSP per

person. The unemployment rate is assumed to move towards a longer term average

of 3.9 per cent, and therefore, will not impact rates of growth in real GSP per person over the next 40 years. In comparison, the Commonwealth

assumes an unemployment rate of 5 per cent from 2014-15. The story is reversed over the next 40 years. An ageing population is

projected to significantly reduce total labour force participation for people 15+, from 73.3 per cent today to 68.2 per cent in 2049-50. This is caused

by much lower rates of labour force participation for people aged 65 and above, who will make up an increasing proportion of the total working

population (15+). Over the past 20 years there has been a gradual upward trend in the

participation rate for persons aged 65-69 years of age to a current rate of approximately 30 per cent for ACT males and 15 per cent for ACT females.

Further increases are anticipated in the short to medium term, with the rate expected to level off in the longer run.

This reduction in total labour force participation is projected to reduce average growth in real GSP per person by 0.2 per cent per annum over the

next 40 years.

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

Working-age

population (15+)

Labour utilisation Labour

productivity

Real GSP per

person

Past 20 Years Next 40 Years

13

Figure 3.4 Actual and Projected Unemployment Rate, ACT

Source: ABS (2010d); ACT Government projections.

Figure 3.5 Actual and Projected Labour Force Participation Rate, ACT

Source: ABS (2010d); ACT Government projections.

Similar trends are projected for Australia as a whole. The Australian

Government IGR projects average growth in real GDP per person of 1.5 per cent per annum over the next 40 years. This is composed of:

0.1 per cent per annum due to an increase in the relative size of the

working age population;

-0.2 per cent per annum due to a reduction in the total labour force

participation rate from 65.1 per cent in 2009-10 to 60.6 per cent in

2049-50; and

1.6 per cent per annum due to projected increases in labour

productivity.

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

1989-90 1999-00 2009-10 2019-20 2029-30 2039-40 2049-50

Unemployment rate (projected) Unemployment rate (actual)

65.0%

66.0%

67.0%

68.0%

69.0%

70.0%

71.0%

72.0%

73.0%

74.0%

75.0%

1989-90 1999-00 2009-10 2019-20 2029-30 2039-40 2049-50

Participation rate (projected) Participation rate (actual)

14

3.3 Dependency Ratio

When comparisons are made internationally, a common ratio used is the dependency ratio. This allows the ratio between those in the workforce and

those who need to be supported outside of the workforce to be calculated. Figure 3.6 shows that, in the ACT, the dependency that the aged population will put on the working aged population will increase while the child

dependency will fall. Figure 3.6 ACT Dependency Ratio Projections, 2007-2056

Source: OECD (2009); ACT Government projections.

Notwithstanding this trend, the ACT still has a relatively low dependency

rate when compared with developed or Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) nations. Figure 3.7 OECD Dependency Ratio, 2000 and 2050

Source: OECD (2009); ACT Government projections.

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035

2037

2039

2041

2043

2045

2047

2049

2051

2053

2055

total dependency aged dependency Child dependency

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

2050 2000

15

4 Fiscal Implications of Ageing

4.1 Age as a Driver of Public Budgets

Demography — the size, structure and distribution of a population — is the

most basic driver of government expenditure and revenue. Public budgets are particularly sensitive to population age structure since different age groups demand a very different level and mix of government services, and

have different abilities to contribute to public revenue. This is clearly exemplified by the profile of government spending on health and education

(figure 4.1). Older age groups demand a much higher level of public health services.

The Australian Government estimates that per person spending on hospitals increases from more than twice the population average for the 65-74 age

group to almost five and a half times the population average for the 85+ age group. Figure 4.1 Index of Government Spending on Education and Hospitals (population average = 1)

Source: ACT Government (2009c); Department of Education, Training and Youth Affairs (1997).

Younger age groups, on the other hand, demand higher levels of education.

In 2009-10, it is estimated that more than 85 per cent of the ACT Government’s education budget was spent on those aged 5-19. Further, per person education spending on those aged 5-14 was almost five times

the average for the ACT population.

4.2 Projected Impact of Ageing on ACT

Government Expenditure

An ageing ACT and regional population is projected to have a significant

impact on both the level and composition of ACT Government expenditure.

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

0-4 5-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+

Education Hospitals

16

4.2.1 Health

The primary impact is projected to be significant growth in health

expenditure. This is driven mainly by the proportional increase in older age groups that will require higher levels of health services. It is also driven by

demand for higher standards of health services due to both higher incomes and technological change, which makes new and more costly health services more readily available.

Given these factors, real ACT health expenditure is projected to grow by an

average of 4 per cent per annum over the next 40 years. This is well above the projected average growth in real GSP of 2.3 per cent. Figure 4.2 Projected Average Annual Growth in Real ACT Government Spending, 2009-10 to 2049-50

Source: ACT Government projections.

This rate of growth would result in total ACT health expenditure as a proportion of GSP increasing from approximately 3.1 per cent today to

6 per cent in 2049-50. Or, in dollar terms, real health expenditure per person increasing from $2,460 today to $7,990 in 2049-50.

This increase in health expenditure is comparable to that projected by the Australian Government. The IGR projects that Australian Government

health expenditure will increase from 4 per cent of GDP in 2009-10 to 7.1 per cent in 2049-50.

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

17

4.2.2 Education

Of secondary importance is the impact of ageing on education expenditure,

which is projected to grow slowest of all the types of government expenditure over the next 40 years.

This is due mainly to a lower rate of growth in the school age group (5-19) who have the highest demand for education services. This group is

projected to grow by an average of 0.67 per cent over the next 40 years, compared to total population growth of 0.9 per cent. This growth

differential results in the total school age population falling from 18.8 per cent of the total population in 2009-10 to 17.2 per cent in 2049-50.

Offsetting this impact will be a general increase in demand for vocational

education services by other age groups, reflecting the long-term trend towards a more skilled workforce.

Given these drivers, real ACT Government expenditure is projected to grow by an average of 1.8 per cent per annum. This growth rate would result in

total education expenditure as a proportion of GSP decreasing from 2.8 per cent in 2009-10 to 2.3 per cent in 2049-50. Figure 4.3 ACT Government Spending as a Proportion of GSP

Source: ACT Government (2009c); ACT Government projections. Real education expenditure per person is still projected to increase, rising

from $2,207 in 2009-10 to $3,100 in 2049-50.

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

2009-10 2049-50

18

4.2.3 Other expenditure

After health, real expenditure on social security and welfare, and housing

and community services is projected to grow the fastest, at an average of 2.6 per cent and 2.5 per cent per annum respectively over the next 40

years. This is due to the relatively higher demand for these services by older age groups. In the case of expenditure on social security and welfare, this rate of growth would result in real expenditure per person increasing

from $550 in 2009-10 to $1,030 in 2049-50.

Other ACT Government spending — on public order and safety, transport, and recreation and culture for example — is not particularly sensitive to the population age structure and, therefore, is projected to remain relatively

stable as a proportion of GSP. Figure 4.4 Projected Real ACT Government Spending

Source: ACT Government projections.

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

$9,000

2009-10 2019-20 2029-30 2039-40 2049-50

Health Education Social security and welfare

19

5 Policy Implications of Ageing

The following section highlights a range of policy issues arising from

demographic ageing in the ACT. It draws on material from Demographic, Health, Lifestyle, Employment and Unpaid Work Characteristics of Canberrans in Mid-Life and Early-Old Age (ANU 2010). The ANU report is

based around The Personality and Total Health (PATH) Through Life Project3.

5.1 Housing

5.1.1 Household Membership

The most common household type for ACT residents aged 65 to 84 years is

a couple household with their married or de-facto partner. Consistent with findings from the ABS that women live longer, women are more likely to live alone in the older age groups, particularly those aged 85 and over.

At the 2006 Census, more than double the number of females aged 65 and

over lived alone (36.5 per cent) compared to males (16.0 per cent) (ABS 2007). Older people living alone are more susceptible to experiencing loneliness and/or social isolation, and have an increasing need for

assistance in the case of illness. Older women report to have stronger social networks, while older men are more at risk of social isolation and loneliness.

Maintaining high levels of social interaction has a number of benefits, including reducing functional decline and having a positive impact on the

physical and mental health of older people. Ongoing social inclusion of older Australians may help to alleviate future health and policy implications that

can stem from social isolation.

3 More information on the PATH project is available at http://cmhr.anu.edu.au/path/

20

Table 5.1 Household Membership Status for the ACT by Age and Gender

65-74 years % 75-84 years % 85+ years %

Male

%

Female

%

Male

%

Female

%

Male

%

Female

%

Husband/wife in a registered marriage

76 56 74 38 55 17

Partner in de facto marriage 2 1 1 0 1 0

Lone parent 2 5 2 7 4 10

Non-dependent child 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other related individual 1 4 3 7 6 13

Unrelated individual living in family household

0 0 0 0 0 0

Group household member 2 2 1 1 1 1

Lone person 14 28 17 44 30 56

Visitor (from within Australia) 2 3 2 3 2 3

Total 7,362 8,196 4,131 5,386 867 1,533

Source: ABS (2007).

5.1.2 Household Tenure

The PATH survey shows that the most common housing tenure type for the cohort aged 60-64 years was owning their own home (83.9 per cent). A further 4 per cent rented public housing while 2.3 per cent rented privately.

Those who maintained a mortgage represented 7.2 per cent of the cohort, a higher figure than the national average.

Table 5.2 Current Home Tenure by Gender Among the PATH 60-64 Age Cohort in

2005-06

Current Home Males % Females % Total %

In a home with a mortgage 7.1 7.3 7.2

In a home that is owned outright 84.8 82.9 83.9

Privately rented home 2.6 1.9 2.3

In rented public (government) housing 3.3 3.4 4.1

In the home of a parent or relative 0.9 1.1 1.0

In rented group accommodation 0.0 0.1 0.0

Other 1.3 1.9 1.6

Total (number) 1,146 1,072 2,218

Source: ANU (2010).

5.2 Housing Cost

While a high number of people aged 65 and over own their own home, those who are renting are at a particular disadvantage. Older adults are

spending almost one quarter to one third of their gross household income on rental accommodation. For those renting public housing the figure is

23 per cent, while for those in the private rental market it is 33 per cent.

21

According to the Real Estate Institute of Australia (REIA), median rental prices in Canberra are among the highest in the Australia, increasing the

risk of financial hardship for older Canberrans.

5.2.1 ACT Ageing Policy on Housing

As outlined in the ACT Strategic Plan for Positive Ageing, 2010-2014 (DHCS 2010), there are a number of key policy areas that need to be addressed to create a positive ageing experience for older Canberrans. These areas

include ensuring there is adequate access to appropriate and affordable housing, ensuring that land releases, planning requirements and concession

programs acknowledge the needs of older Canberrans and that private, public and community housing options all take into account the needs of this cohort.

5.3 Transport

Transport contributes significantly to the wellbeing and quality of life of older Canberrans — in particular, when accessing essential services and

maintaining social and community participation — and adds to a sense of independence. Easy access to transport is particularly important for older adults, who can experience decreased mobility and reduced cognitive and

sensorimotor skills.

In the ACT, where reliance on private motor vehicles is high, age-related impairments can be exacerbated. Given the population’s reliance on private

vehicles well into older age, it is vital that older drivers first maintain their ability to drive safely for as long as possible; second, have evidence-based guidelines for licence termination; and third, have appropriate access to

alternative transportation.

5.3.1 Drivers

According to the survey Self-Regulatory Driving Practices of Older Drivers in the Australian Capital Territory and New South Wales (SRDPOD) (Charlton

et al 2006), older drivers in the ACT are more likely to be male than female. The majority of respondents from SRDPOD were aged under 75 years

(80 per cent) and almost three-quarters (74 per cent) were not working. Over 70 per cent of older drivers in the ACT drive on a daily basis

(72 per cent), with the reasons for driving including performing essential errands, visiting friends and family, medical appointments and participation in sport/social club events.

22

Table 5.3 Demographic Characteristics of ACT Older Drivers

Percentage Percentage

Gender Employment

Male 60 Not working 74

Female 40 Employed part-time 12

Missing <1 Employed full-time 4

Age Volunteering 7

60-64 years 33 Missing 4

65-74 years 47 Education

75+ years 20 Primary school 4

Missing 1 <4 yrs high school 18

Marital status 4-6 yrs high school 18

Married/de facto 68 College/university 56

Divorced/separated 11 Missing 4

Never married 4

Widowed 16

Missing 1

Source: ANU (2010).

5.3.2 Driving Risk

Older drivers are more at risk of serious injury and fatality in an accident given their increased frailty. The decrease in cognitive and sensorimotor

skills in older adults may diminish their capacity to drive safely. Decreases in reflexes (such as reaction time) and executive functions (such as problem solving) may impede their ability to navigate complex intersections.

Use of medications, both prescription and otherwise, could also have a

negative impact on the driving ability of the older population. To manage changes in their cognitive functions, older drivers tend to adjust their behaviour and avoid driving situations they see as difficult.

According to the SRDPOD survey, the situations that older ACT drivers

avoided most often were driving at night (particularly when wet), driving in peak traffic and driving in the rain. Due to the self–regulating and personal nature of these adjustments in behaviour, these adjustments may not

always be based on appropriate reasons. As a result of this, the adjustments in the driving behaviour of older adults may not address the

decreases in cognitive and sensor motor skills.

5.3.3 Licence Termination

According to the Older Persons Road Safety Needs Analysis for the ACT (OPRSN) (COTA 2007), over 80 per cent of older drivers rely on their General Practitioner (GP) to advise them when to stop driving. For this to be

effective, GPs must be adequately equipped to asses driving capacity, including onward referral for further assessment and/or training. Older

females in couples are at risk of becoming deskilled and ceasing driving at an earlier age than their partners, relying on them for transport. Given that

23

females are more likely to outlive their partners, maintaining their driving skills is especially important.

5.3.4 Alternative Transport

A whole-of–government approach to viable alternative transport options is

essential for those who can no longer drive. According to the OPRSN, there are limited alternatives available in the ACT to those who can no longer drive or no longer wish to be dependent on their cars for transport. In

particular, the OPRSN findings highlighted that ACTION could target bus services specifically at older Canberrans and that pedestrian areas could be

better managed.

5.3.5 ACT Ageing Policy on Transport

As outlined in the ACT Strategic Plan for Positive Ageing, 2010-2014 (DHCS 2010), the ability for seniors to be able to move easily throughout their community via a number of transport modes is a key goal. The plan sets

out several initiatives to ensure that this is possible. These include maintaining pathways, ensuring sufficient pedestrian crossings with well

displayed audio and visual cues, providing separate cycle paths and ensuring that public transport costs are consistent and affordable.

5.4 Education and Training

Education can have a significant impact on the health and wellbeing of

individuals, in particular older adults who are more susceptible to health complaints.

The PATH Through life study found that 78.5 per cent of the 60-64 age cohort had completed 12 years or more of education. Men consistently

reported more years of education than women for this cohort with 45.7 per cent of men completing more than 15 years of education,

compared to 28.7 per cent of women.

5.4.1 Education and Weight

At the most recent PATH survey, of those respondents in the 60-64 age cohort who had less than 12 years or 12 to 15 years of education, 62.8 per cent were considered Overweight or Obese. Of those respondents

who had more than 15 years of education, 53.0 per cent were considered Overweight or Obese.

24

These results suggest that messages regarding healthy eating choices and weight are having a greater effect on those with higher levels of education.

Weight reduction in those who are socially disadvantaged can have social and economic impacts across the community. Figure 5.1 Body Mass Index Category by Education Among the 60-64 Age Cohort

Across Years4

Source: ANU (2010).

5.4.2 Smoking and Education

The PATH Through Life study has shown that those with more years of education were less likely to be smokers. The most recent results showed

that older adults with less than 12 years of education accounted for 10.4 per cent of smokers. This figure decreased for those who had 12-15 years of education (9.4 per cent) and again for those who had more than 15

years of education (4.7 per cent).

Those older adults who had more than 15 years of education also had the highest rate of respondents who had never smoked. It appears that higher educational attainment has a positive effect on a person’s smoking habits.

4 Body Mass Index (BMI) Classifications: Underweight (BMI <18.5), Normal weight (BMI 18.5-24.9), Overweight (BMI 25-29.9) and Obese(BMI ≥30)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2001-02 2005-06 2001-02 2005-06 2001-02 2005-06 2001-02 2005-06

Underweight Healthy Overweight Obese

< 12 years 12-15 years > 15 years

25

Figure 5.2 Smoker Status by Education Among the 60-64 Age Cohort Across Years

Source: ANU (2010).

5.4.3 Alcohol Use and Education

Unlike body weight and smoking, high alcohol use was not as high amongst those with fewer years of education. Of those older adults who had 15 years or more of education, 5.5 per cent reported to drink a hazardous/harmful

amount. The percentage of medium and light drinkers was also higher in this category (24.4 per cent and 49.6 per cent respectively).

These results may be attributable to the likelihood of a higher disposable income for those with more years of education.

Figure 5.3 Alcohol Use by Education Among the 60-64 Age Cohort Across Years

Source: ANU (2010).

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2001-02 2005-06 2001-02 2005-06 2001-02 2005-06

Never smoked Past smoker Current smoker

< 12 years 12-15 years

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2001-02 2005-06 2001-02 2005-06 2001-02 2005-06 2001-02 2005-06 2001-02 2005-06

Abstain Occasional Light Medium Hazardous

< 12 years 12-15 years > 15 years

26

5.5 Health

Maintaining good heath is a key factor in enjoying good quality of life. For older adults, the ability to maintain good health is impacted upon by several

factors, including biological determinants, psychosocial, early life and environmental factors along with socioeconomic status, education, employment, housing, healthcare and transport.

5.5.1 Medical Conditions

According to the PATH Through Life study, the highest reported health

factors affecting older adults were arthritis (43.0 per cent), heart trouble (18.4 per cent) and eye disease (16.8 per cent). Heart trouble and diabetes

were more common among men, while asthma and thyroid disease were more frequently reported by women.

Over a quarter of older adults also reported some form of physical disability causing functional impairments to everyday life. A high number of adults in

the study undertook risky behaviours such as little physical activity, smoking and/or drinking hazardously. Figure 5.4 Self–Reported Medical Conditions Among the 60-64 Age Cohort Across Years

Source: ANU (2010).

5.5.2 Anxiety and Depression

At the most recent assessment in the PATH Through Life study, 39.6 per cent of older adults had a high chance of clinically significant depression symptoms. Almost one third (31.4 per cent) of older adults also

reported a high likelihood of clinically significant anxiety. Females also reported a higher likelihood of clinically significant depression (females

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2001-0

2

2005-0

6

2001-0

2

2005-0

6

2001-0

2

2005-0

6

2001-0

2

2005-0

6

2001-0

2

2005-0

6

2001-0

2

2005-0

6

2001-0

2

2005-0

6

2001-0

2

2005-0

6

Heart

Trouble

Cancer Arthritis Thyroid Epilepsy Asthma Eye

Disease

Diabetes

Males Females

27

44.0 per cent, males 35.5 per cent) and anxiety (females 20.6 per cent, males 14.4 per cent).

Table 5.4 Percentage of Respondents by Anxiety and Depression Scores Among the 40-44 and 60-64 Age Cohorts Across Years

40-44 Age Cohort 60-64 Age Cohort

2000-01 2004-05 2008-09 2001-02 2005-06

Anxiety Score (%)

Low 65.0 68.9 68.6 81.4 82.6

High 35.0 31.1 31.4 18.6 17.4

Number of respondents (persons) 2,514 2,344 2,170 2,540 2,197

Depression Score (%)

Low 48.2 51.1 51.2 61.3 60.4

High 51.8 48.9 48.8 38.7 39.6

Number of respondents

(persons) 2,515 2,342 2,169 2,540 2,196

Source: ANU (2010).

Table 5.5 Percentage of Respondents by Anxiety and Depression Scores Among the 60-64 Age Cohort By Gender

Males 60-64 Females 60-64

2001-02 2005-06 2001-02 2005-06

Anxiety Score (%)

Low 84.1 85.6 78.5 79.4

High 15.9 14.4 21.5 20.6

Number of respondents (persons) 1313 1135 1227 1062

Depression Score (%)

Low 64.1 64.5 58.4 56.0

High 35.9 35.5 41.6 44.0

Number of respondents (persons) 1,313 1,135 1,227 1,061 Source: ANU (2010).

5.5.3 Physical Activity

According to the PATH Through Life study, almost two-thirds of older adults undertook moderate to vigorous exercise on a weekly basis. Of those

undertaking moderate to vigorous exercise, 50.0 per cent were undertaking a moderate level of exercise. While males had a higher level of involvement in vigorous exercise on a weekly basis (18.6 per cent for males compared

with 9.6 per cent for females), both sexes had approximately half of all respondents participating in moderate exercise. Females were also more

likely than males to be in the none to mild category (40.2 per cent for females compared with 31.6 per cent for males).

28

Figure 5.5 Physical Activity by Gender Among 60-64 Age Cohort Across Years

Source: ANU (2010).

5.5.4 Alcohol Use

The majority of older adults (44 per cent) reported themselves as being light drinkers according to the most recent PATH results. A further

22.4 per cent reported being medium drinkers, while 15 per cent reported occasional drinking. Only 5.0 per cent of older adults self–reported as

drinking in the hazardous/harmful category. Older men were more likely to be light or hazardous/harmful drinkers than older females. More older women (18.7 per cent) than older men (8.7 per cent) reported as

abstaining from drinking. Figure 5.6 Alcohol Use by Gender Among 60-64 Age Cohort Across Years

Source: ANU (2010).

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2001-02 2005-06 2001-02 2005-06 2001-02 2005-06

None-mild Moderate Vigorous

Males Females

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2001-02 2005-06 2001-02 2005-06 2001-02 2005-06 2001-02 2005-06 2001-02 2005-06

Abstain Occasional Light Medium Hazardous/Harmful

Male Female

29

5.5.5 Body Weight

At the time of the most recent PATH Through Life survey, 59.3 per cent of

older adults aged 60-64 years were considered overweight or obese. A higher proportion of males (64.7 per cent) were classified as overweight or

obese compared to females (53.6 per cent). Between the initial survey in 2001-02 and the follow up in 2005-06, the

Body Mass Index (BMI) classification of older adults remained relatively stable. There was an increase of 2.1 per cent in the number of males in the

healthy category and a decrease of 2.1 per cent in the number of males in the overweight category. The difference for females over this time across all BMI classifications was less than 0.5 per cent.

Figure 5.7 BMI by Gender Among 60-64 Age Cohort Across Years

Source: ANU (2010).

5.5.6 Smoking

The most recent PATH Through Life survey showed that 8.0 per cent of older adults reported being a current smoker. A further 38.7 per cent of

respondents reported being a past smoker. A greater number of males reported being a current smoker or a past smoker than females.

The number of older adults that reported being a current smoker at the most recent PATH Through Life survey had decreased from the initial survey

in 2001-02. For males, the number had decreased by 3.6 per cent and for females the number had decreased by 2.0 per cent.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2001-02 2005-06 2001-02 2005-06 2001-02 2005-06 2001-02 2005-06

Underweight Healthy Overweight Obese

Male Female

30

Figure 5.8 Smoker Status by Gender Among 60-64 Age Cohort Across Years

Source: ANU (2010).

5.5.7 ACT Ageing Policy on Health and Wellbeing

The education and promotion of a healthy lifestyle among older adults is one of the policy areas outlined in the ACT Strategic Plan for Positive

Ageing, 2010-2014 (DHCS 2010). Reducing social isolation and improving opportunities for older adults to stay active are also outlined. The goal is for

older adults in the ACT to be able to age positively and for all ages to actively participate in the community.

5.6 Paid and Unpaid Work

5.6.1 Paid and Unpaid Work

According to the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, mature age workers are more likely to work in industries such as agriculture, forestry,

fishing, education, and health and community services. In comparison, unemployment rates among mature workers are not higher than other age

groups, although those who are unemployed often have longer periods without employment than younger age groups. Periods of unemployment can have negative impacts on a person’s psychological and financial

wellbeing as well as negatively affecting their health and increasing the use of health services.

At the beginning of the PATH Through Life study, 58.2 per cent of the 60-64

year old cohort reported as not being in the labour force. At the follow up study four years later, this figure had increased to 73.7 per cent. Of those in the cohort who were working at the beginning of the study, the majority

were in full-time work. By the four year follow up, part-time work had increased to be the most popular labour force participation type for this

group. During these four years, the number of women in part-time work decreased, while the number of men in part-time work increased, possibly reflecting the preference of males to ease into retirement.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2001-02 2005-06 2001-02 2005-06 2001-02 2005-06

Never smoked Past smoker Current smoker

Male Female

31

Figure 5.9 Employment Status by Gender Among the 60-64 Age Cohort Across

Years

Source: ANU (2010).

5.6.2 Caring

Further analysis of caregivers aged 65-69 from the PATH Through Life survey was conducted due to the high occurrence of care–giving in this age

group. This analysis was carried out by Butterworth, Pymont, Rodgers, Windsor and Anstey.

Of those who provided care, the most reported types of care–giving were to those who needed care due to a disability, medical condition or advanced

age. Of those that provided care, 5.8 per cent reported as a primary caregiver, with a further 3.8 per cent reporting as providing five hours or

more of care per week. Of those who reported caring five hours or more per week, 80.7 per cent of respondents had been caring for at least two years, while 53.1 per cent of respondents had been caring for at least five years.

Of those carers who reported providing five hours or more of care per week, 42.0 per cent reported that they provided in excess of 15 hours of care per

week. The majority (74.2 per cent) of primary caregivers were providing care in

their own homes for their spouse (52.3 per cent) or family member (39.0 per cent) including spouse, child, grandchild or other relative. The

most common type of care given was to those with a physical disability or chronic illness (57.8 per cent), followed by caring for those with a mental illness (13.3 per cent) and caring for those with memory or other cognitive

problems (10.2 per cent).

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2001-02 2005-06 2001-02 2005-06 2001-02 2005-06 2001-02 2005-06 2001-02 2005-06

Employed full-time

Employed part-time looking for

for full-time

Employed part-time

Unemployed, looking for work

Not in the labour force

Males Females

32

Figure 5.10 Duration of Providing Care Among the 60-64 Age Cohort in 2005-06

Source: ANU (2010).

Figure 5.11 Hours Spent Care–Giving Per Week Among the 60-64 Age Cohort in 2005-06

Source: ANU (2010).

5.6.3 Carer Wellbeing

Of note when discussing carers who are older is the wellbeing of the carers

themselves. Given the ageing nature of Australia’s population, the number of caregivers in older ages is expected to increase.

When respondents aged 65-69 who were primary or substantial caregivers

were compared to those in the same cohort who were not caregivers, a number of differences were found. Those who were carers were found more likely to be women, to report physical impairment, to be reliant on welfare

payments, to have experienced financial hardship and to have greater responsibility for household management. Carers were also more likely to

suffer from mental health issues such as anxiety and depression.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

<6 mo. 6 mo. to <1 yr 1 yr to <2 yr 2 yr to <5 yr 5+ yr

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

<2 2 to <5 5 to <10 10 to <15 15 to <20 20 to <30 30+

33

Table 5.6 Characteristics and Mental Health of Substantial Caregivers (≥5 hours care per week) and Non-caregivers (% and means) Among 60-64 Cohort in 2005

Substantial

caregivers Non-carers

(N = 212) (N = 2010)

Variable (level of interest) % %

Sex (female) 59.0 47.3

Marital status (married) 71.7 74.2

Physical impairment (severe or moderate) 23.3 17.5

Employment status (employed) 25.5 26.2

Government payment (welfare reliant) 32.5 25.5

Hardship (any hardship) 04.3 02.0

Household task responsibility (75% +) 67.5 47.7

Financial responsibility (75% +) 63.5 55.0

Income responsibility (75% +) 49.8 48.7

Goldberg depression (clinically significant) 50.5 39.3

Goldberg anxiety (clinically significant) 25.9 17.5

Mean (se) Mean (se)

Educational attainment (years) 13.9 (.059) 13.8 (.174)

Age (years) 66.6 (.034) 66.6 (.103)

Positive social support - friends 0.00 (.022) 0.03 (.071)

Negative interactions - friends -0.01 (.022) 0.11 (.076)

Positive social support - family/partner 0.01 (.075) 0.25 (.018)

Negative interactions - family/partner 0.53 (.077) 0.29 (.022)

Depression and anxiety symptoms 4.70 (.261) 3.73 (.085)

Source: ANU (2010).

5.6.4 Volunteering

Volunteers deliver a range of services that benefit the community ranging from sport and recreation to emergency services and community welfare. According to the ABS, in 2006, 45-54 year olds recorded the second highest

rate of volunteer work. Those aged 55 and over were also more likely to spend time volunteering than younger adults.

5.6.5 Benefits for Older Adults

Older adults who undertake volunteer work are reported to benefit in both

their physical and mental health, while also prolonging their life. While there are benefits to volunteering for older adults, there is also a risk that they will over–invest their time with negative consequences. Older volunteers

who spent between 100-800 hours per year volunteering benefited more than those who spent in excess of 800 hours per year volunteering. While

volunteering is of great benefit to the community and individuals involved, it must be managed to ensure that older adults are not taking on too great a burden.

34

5.6.6 Duration and Type of Volunteer Work

Among the PATH Through Life cohort of 60-64 year olds in 2005-06,

45.1 per cent reported being involved in volunteer work. The most common types of volunteering were management and/or committee work

(31.2 per cent) and befriending, listening or counselling (24.5 per cent). The volunteers provided their services mainly to community groups (24.5 per cent) and religious groups. Of the volunteers in this cohort,

40.2 per cent of them had been volunteering for over 10 years. Males (43.5 per cent) were more likely than females (36.6 per cent) to have been

involved in volunteering for over 10 year, while females were more likely to have volunteered for between two and 10 years. Figure 5.12 History of Volunteering Among the 60-64 Age Cohort in 2005-06

Source: ANU (2010).

5.6.7 ACT Ageing Policy on Unpaid Work

As outlined in the ACT Strategic Plan for Positive Ageing, 2010-2014 (DHCS 2010), retiring from the workforce requires planning advice and support.

Retirement can be an opportunity to undertake more community–based activities such as volunteering. This provides an opportunity for skills and

knowledge to be used in a beneficial way for the community and individual concerned.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

<6 mths 6 mths - <1 yr 1 - <2 yrs 2 - <5 yrs 5 - <10 yrs >10 yrs

Males Females

35

6 References/Further Information

Access Economics 2008, The ACT and its region: economic relationships and

key drivers of economic growth, http://www.accesseconomics.com.au/publicationsreports/showreport.php?id=176&searchfor=2008&searchby=year

ACT Council of Social Service/The National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling 2007, Characteristics of Low Income Households,

http://www.actcoss.org.au/publications/Publications_2007/2407REP.pdf

ACT Council of Social Service/The National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling 2008, Expenditure of Low Income households in the ACT,

http://www.actcoss.org.au/publications/Publications_2009/0209REP.pdf

ACT Government 2004, Australian Capital Territory Submission to

Productivity Commission Study into the Economic Implications of an Ageing Australia, http://www.pc.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0019/14149/sub021.pdf

ACT Government 2009a, ACT Population Projections 2007 to 2056, http://www.cmd.act.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0010/119719/act-

population-projections-2007-2056.pdf

ACT Government 2009b, ACT Population Projections for Suburbs and Districts 2007 to 2019,

http://www.cmd.act.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/119734/suburb-population-projection.pdf

ACT Government 2009c, Budget 2009-10 Australian Capital Territory Paper No.3, http://www.treasury.act.gov.au/budget/budget_2009/html/paper3.htm

DHCS (ACT Department of Housing and Community Services) 2010, ACT Strategic Plan for Positive Ageing 2010-2014: Towards an Age–Friendly

City, http://www.dhcs.act.gov.au/wac/ageing/strategic_plan

ABS (Australian Bureau of Statistics) 2007, 2068.0 Census Tables, http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/ProductsbyCatalogue/A6D612

9396973B5ACA257306000D4DB9?OpenDocument

ABS 2010a, 3101.0- Australian Demographic Statistics September quarter

2009, http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/allprimarymainfeatures/8DEB6

3C39D475D4BCA25774B0015F48E?opendocument

ABS 2010b, 3201.0 Population by Age and Sex, Australian States and Territories June 2009,

http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/productsbyCatalogue/B52C3903D894336DCA2568A9001393C1?OpenDocument

36

ABS 2010c, 5206.0 Australian National Accounts: National income, Expenditure and Product Dec 2010,

http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/allprimarymainfeatures/29DE6B37AF31DECACA25773500146EC6?opendocument

ABS 2010d, 6202.0 Labour Force Australia March 2010,

http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/allprimarymainfeatures/2B0A66006AE41D97CA2577210018E473?opendocument

Australian Government 2010, Intergenerational Report 2010, http://www.treasury.gov.au/igr/igr2010/

ANU (Australian National University) 2010, Demographic, Health, Lifestyle,

Employment and Unpaid Work Characteristics of Canberrans in Mid-Life and Early-Old Age, Canberra.

Charlton et al 2006, Self-Regulatory Driving Practices of Older Drivers in the ACT and NSW, http://www.monash.edu.au/muarc/reports/muarc254.pdf

COTA (Council on the Ageing (ACT)) 2007, Older Persons Road Safety Needs Analysis for the ACT, http://www.seniorsmovingsafely.org.au/download_documents/oprsna_comp

lete.pdf

Department of Education, Training and Youth Affairs 1997, Education

Participation Rates, Australia 1997, http://www.dest.gov.au/archive/iae/research/docs/education_participation_rates_australia_1997.pdf

NSW Government 2010, New South Wales Statistical Local Area Population Projections 2006-2036,

http://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/Programsservices/Populationandhousingprojections/tabid/124/language/en-US/Default.aspx

OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) 2009,

OECD Factbook 2009, http://www.oecd.org/document/27/0,3343,en_2649_201185_42419291_1_

1_1_1,00.html

The National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling 2008, Old, Single and Poor: Using Microsimulation and Microdata to Analyse Poverty and the

Impact of Policy Change Among Older Australians, http://www.canberra.edu.au/centres/natsem/publications?sq_content_src=

%2BdXJsPWh0dHAlM0ElMkYlMkZ6aWJvLndpbi5jYW5iZXJyYS5lZHUuYXUlMkZuYXRzZW0lMkZpbmRleC5waHAlM0Ztb2RlJTNEcHVibGljYXRpb24lMjZwdWJsaWNhdGlvbiUzRDExMTYmYWxsPTE%3D

The National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling 2009, Two Worlds of Ageing: Spatial Microsimulation Estimates of Small Area Advantage Among

Older Australians, http://www.canberra.edu.au/centres/natsem/publications?sq_content_src=%2BdXJsPWh0dHAlM0ElMkYlMkZ6aWJvLndpbi5jYW5iZXJyYS5lZHUuYXUlMkZ

uYXRzZW0lMkZpbmRleC5waHAlM0Ztb2RlJTNEcHVibGljYXRpb24lMjZwdWJsaWNhdGlvbiUzRDExOTUmYWxsPTE%3D