The Ageing PopulationDemographic Trends and Implications

David MetzPartner, Population Ageing Associates

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The Ageing PopulationDemographic Trends

Longer LifeBaby BoomFalling FertilityEarlier RetirementCost of PensionsEmployment & Markets

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Expectancy of life at age 60 - years

men women

1971 15.3 19.8

2001 19.6 23.0

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1998-BASED NATIONAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS, UNITED KINGDOM

- 600 - 400 - 200 0 200 400 600

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100+

A

ge

Population (thousands)

2001

Males Females

Baby Boom

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FRIDAY MAY 11 2001

Birthrate slumps to the lowest on record BY ALEXANDRA FREAN, SOCIAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT

The birth rate in England and Wales has reached 1.66 children per woman, equal to the lowest level since records began, according to the latest government figures.

Falling Fertility (© The Times 2001)

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Cost of Pensions (From GAD UK Population Projections Nov 1999)

No of Population of Working Age to support each person over Pension Age

1998 3.52036 2.42036 2.0*

* If state women’s retirement age stayed at 60

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Who are these older people?

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When does “old age” begin?

Age 50+: changes in prospect for work, leisure, income, health.

By 2020, half the adults in the UK will be over 50.

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Variability increases with age

More variation in later life than in youth. Avoid stereotyping.

Chronological age not a good indicator of capability.

Challenge: how to think about older people - as producers and as consumers.

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Values & attitudes of older people

More respect for authority, belief in having rules, focus on community.

Less risk-taking, excitement, immediate gratification.

Value natural products, aesthetics, pleasure.

Affinity for technology.

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Who are these older people?

Our future selvesVariedDemandingDiscriminatingOpen to possibilities

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Income and wealth

Pensioners’ incomes average 80% of whole population’s

over 55s control over 60% of nation’s wealth and 40% of consumer spending worth £240 billion a year

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Addressing the market

Everyday products - Inclusive DesignThe design of all products and services to be used by maximum number of people with minimum amount of modification

Specialised productsThe design of specific products and services to compensate for loss of function (physical, sensory, cognitive; singly or in combination)

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Automobiles

Ford market initiative in 1990’s

Designers exposed to effects of ageing

Ergonomic checklist for all Ford designs

No mention in Ford product publicity

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Retail

Pensioner trolleys introduced to suit pensioners’ needs

Liked by other usersAll customers needs

are considered eg store layout

Customer-centred business

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Software

Accessibility Technology Group started in 1992

Company accessibility policy established in 1995

Acts across all major Microsoft products; Windows, Office, internet

Products also enable connection of specialist devices eg keyboards, braille readers etc

•www.microsoft.com/enable

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Inclusive Design

“Design for the young, and you’ll exclude the old;

Design for the old, and you’ll include the young”

Gero von RandowSiemens

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Consumer market segments

healthyindulgers

ailingoutgoers

healthyhermits

frailrecluses

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Employment

Population aged 20-39 and 45-64, United Kingdom

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Year

Po

pu

lati

on

(m

illi

on

s)

45-64

20-39

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Employers faced by -

Fewer young people; more older people,

skills shortages and “full employment”,

unsustainable costs: pension funds and taxation for welfare.

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Finding older employees by -

Promote an “age friendly” image,target the relevant segment of the older

population,offer flexible working,offer prospects, if possible,use a wide range of organisations to

access potential employees.

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Rewards of older employees

Commitment and loyalty - low staff turnover,

interpersonal skills: team workcustomer skills: increased salescustomer focus: the age profile of

customers

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Retention of employees

Offer learning opportunities,offer options for retraining: multi-skilling,support career changes,planning ahead; financial planning for

employees.

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Future changes in employment law

Abolition of fixed retirement ages,employee rights after age 60/65,age not a justifiable criteria for recruitment,

promotion or training,changes in early retirement rules and

flexible working.

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Foresight Ageing Population Panel

"The Age Shift" - 2000

NEW APPROACHES NEEDEDReversing Early RetirementMore Older WorkersLifelong Learning / Reshaping EducationNew Financial ServicesDesign for InclusivityLooking after Fourth Agers