Upload
others
View
0
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
PIRAEUS EQUITY SCREENING MODEL
NOVEMBER 2017
ECONOMIC RESEARCH & INVESTMENT STRATEGY
Ilias Lekkos [email protected] Doulos [email protected]
CONTENTS
2
AIM OF THE STUDY
ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY
FINAL RESULTS OF THE EQUITY SCREENING MODEL
QUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT
INDICATIVE PORTFOLIO
TRACK RECORD
APPENDIX
AIM OF STUDY
3
Our investment allocation process combines both a top-down approach that allows us to leverage all our macroeconomicanalysis and modelling capability to arrive at a bird’s eyes view regarding corporate profitability and multiple expansion aswell as a bottom-up approach that depends first and foremost on fundamental company analysis.
The aim of this presentation is to provide a detailed insight into our bottom-up US and European stock screening process.The result of this process could provide useful ideas to advisory clients with substantial investment experience and aboveaverage risk profile.
The screening process will typically arrive at a 15-company short-list. The size of the list represents a trade-off between the
optimal number of companies required to achieve a satisfactory degree of diversification and the maximum number ofcompanies that our investment team can follow in detail.
4
ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY
5
A FIVE – STAGE ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY
o Sample Definition
o Ratio & Metrics: Identification & Definition
o Scores of Individual Ratios & Accounting Metrics
o Synthesis of a Six-Dimensional Score Card
o Final Scores & Ranking
METHODOLOGY (1): DEFINING THE UNIVERSE
6
Stock selection: We focus on the stocks included in the S&P500 (SPX) and the EuroStoxx (SXXE) indices.
Sector selection US: For the US screening model we focus on the 11 GICS sector namely Information Technology,Industrials, Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary, Healthcare, Energy, Utilities, Materials, TelecommunicationsServices and Real Estate.
Sector selection EU: In the EU, we adopt the GICS sector classification provided by Bloomberg such as InformationTechnology, Industrials, Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary, Healthcare, Energy, Utilities, Materials,Telecommunications Services and Real Estate.
Sector Exclusion: We exclude Financial stocks for which we have developed a specialized Financial Stocks Screening Modelbased on Moody’s database
Database: FactSet
7
METHODOLOGY (2): RATIOS & METRICS DEFINITIONS
Earnings & Sales, Profit Margins & Returns on Equity
EPS % Earnings per Share – Growth (%)
EBIT % Operating Income – Growth (%)
Sales % Sales – Growth (%)
Ebitda Margin Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization / Sales
Net Margin Net Income / Sales
ROE Net Income / Average Shareholder’s Equity
EPS % - Volatility The volatility of EPS annual growth (%) over the past 10 years
EBIT % - Volatility The volatility of EBIT annual growth (%) over the past 10 years
Sales % - Volatility The volatility of Sales annual growth (%) over the past 10 years
Sales Allocation Adding the exchange rate factor - Distribution of sales per company for individual geographical areas
Valuations
P / E Price / Earnings per share
P / FCF Price / Free Cash Flow per share
P / BV Price / Book Value per share
DY (Dividend Yield) Dividend per share / Price
Leverage & Liquidity
Net Debt / Ebitda (Total Debt – Cash & Short Term Investments) / Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization
EV / Ebitda (Net Debt + Market Cap) / Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization
Quick Ratio (Current assets – Inventories) / Current Liabilities
Dividend Policy
DPS % Dividend per Share – Growth (%)
Dividend Payout Dividend per share / Earnings per share
Technical Analysis
Relative Strength IndexCurrent & historical strength or weakness of a stock based on the closing prices of a recent trading period. In our methodology we calculate the divergence between 7 & 14 weeks RSI (the highest, the best)
Exponential Moving AverageA type of moving average that is similar to a simple moving average, except that more weights is given to the latest data. In our methodology we calculate the divergence between 13 & 50 weeks EMA (the highest, the best)
Market Consensus
Target Price The divergence between the current stock price and the 52weeks target price (market consensus)
EPS Revisions Index (Number of analysts revising upward the EPS estimates – Number of analysts downgrading the EPS estimates) / Number of total revisions
METHODOLOGY (3): ASSIGNING SCORES TO INDIVIDUAL RATIOS & METRICS
8
The score for each individual variable is estimated upon a 2-stage process, each with 2 separate layers:
For each variable, we combine both:
o A historical (backward-looking) approach (70% weight)
o And a forward-looking view(30% weight)
Both historical and forward-looking scores are estimated as a combination of:
o Cross-sectoral Standardization (60% weight)
o Across-time Standardization (40% weight)
METHODOLOGY (4): HISTORICAL APPROACH
9
The methodology is based on a rolling 10-year historical window of financial statement data and the most recent data ontechnical analysis indices.
Core Historical Process:
o Cross-sectional Standardization: For each ratio or accounting variable, we estimate its cross-sectional distributionacross all companies in our sample. We divide the distribution into 17 percentiles and assign a score of 1-16 (fromworst to best) according to which percentile bucket the variable is ranked (i.e. a variable is assigned..).
o Across-Time Standardization: the distance (either positive or negative) of each variable from each own rolling 10-yearmedian is calculated. This deviation is calculated for all companies and the empirical distribution of this new variable iscalculated. Once again the distribution is divided in 17 percentiles and a score from 0 to 16 is assigned according towhich bucket a variable falls into.
o Point-in-time: For “Target Price” and “EPS Revisions” variables, we rank the difference between spot values andanalysts’ consensus
Additional adjustments:
o If a company had more than once negative EPS, Net Margin or ROE in the past 10 financial year, the variable is assigneda score of 0
o If a company had a negative Ebit or Ebitda Margin in the past 10 financial year, the variable is assigned a score of 0
o Volatility Penalty Factor: For the metrics EPS%, Sales% & Ebit% a penalty (benefit) of +/-10% is applied base on a 10-year Volatility Factor. We divide the distribution into 11 percentiles and assign a score of -10% to 10% (from worst to
best) according to which percentile bucket the variable is ranked.
Final Historical score for each variable = 60% * Cross-sectional score + 40% * Across time score
METHODOLOGY (5): FORWARD–LOOKING PROCESS
10
In order to capture the forward-looking nature of equity pricing we also allow our scoring process to depend upon analysts’year ahead views
Core Forward-looking Process:
o Cross-sectional Standardization: For each ratio or accounting variable, we estimate its cross-sectional distribution acrossall companies in our sample. We divide the distribution into 17 percentiles and assign a score of 1-16 (from worst tobest) according to which percentile bucket the variable is ranked (i.e. a variable is assigned..).
o Across-Time Standardization: the absolute deviation between the current and “expected” values is estimated andassigned a 0-16 score according to the 17-percentile scale
Additional adjustments:
o If a company has or expected to have negative EPS, Net Margin, ROE, Ebit or Ebitda Margin, the variable is assigned ascore of 0
o No Volatility Penalty applied
Final Forward looking score for each variable = 60% * Cross-sectional score + 40% * Across time score
METHODOLOGY (6): FINAL SCORE OF INDIVIDUAL RATIO & METRICS
11
70% * Historical score 30% * Forward looking score+
Final score (total)
=
METHODOLOGY (7): SYNTHESIS OF A SIX – DIMENTIONAL SCORECARD
12
Each ratio is classified according to one of the following six relevant dimensions:.
1. Earnings & Sales, Profit Margins & Returns on Equity
2. Valuations
3. Leverage & Liquidity
4. Dividend Policy
5. Technical Analysis
6. Market Consensus
The weight assigned to each ratio depends on the best practices and expert judgement
METHODOLOGY (8): FINAL SYNTHESIS
13
Each companies’ final ranking depends on its total score estimated as a weighted average of the aforementioned sixdimensions as follows:
Final Score=
35% * Earnings & Sales, Profit Margins & Returns on Equity
+ 21% * Valuations
+ 17% * Leverage & Liquidity
+ 10% * Dividend Policy
+ 10% * Technical Analysis
+ 07% * Market Consensus
EQUITIES ASSESSMENT MODEL: OVERALL STRUCTURE
14
Total Score
Earnings & Sales,
Profit Margins, &
Return on Equity
(35%)
Dividend Policy
(10%)
Market
Consensus
(7%)Technical
Analysis (10%)
Leverage &
Liquidity (17%)
Valuations (21%)
EPS % 8%
EBIT % 5%
Sales % 6%
Ebitda Margin 6%
Net Margin 4%
ROE 6%
P / E 6%
P / FCF 9%
P / BV 2%
Div Yield 4%
Net Debt / Ebitda 6%
EV / Ebitda 4%
Quick Ratio 7%
DPS % 7%
Dividend Payout 3%
Target Price 4%
EPS Revisions 3%
RSI 6%
Exponential Moving Average 4%
For these metrics, there is additional volatility penalty adjustment
15
FINAL RESULTS OF EQUITY SCREENING MODEL
EXAMPLE OF INDICATIVE MODEL OUTPUT: S&P500 EX FINANCIALS
16
# Companies Score Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank
1 Broadcom Limited 11.13 22 88 8 6 141 892 Western Digi ta l Corporation 11.07 6 20 29 352 112 13 Lam Research Corporation 10.73 21 116 9 251 42 574 Texas Instruments Incorporated 10.67 9 245 39 5 37 1605 KLA-Tencor Corporation 10.48 3 70 79 232 258 1006 Micron Technology, Inc. 10.37 30 53 11 414 21 507 Visa Inc. Class A 10.37 1 323 167 47 48 418 Microsoft Corporation 10.13 39 274 40 79 4 379 Twenty-Fi rs t Century Fox, Inc. Class B 10.06 104 54 59 32 216 68
10 Skyworks Solutions , Inc. 9.98 38 129 4 259 151 13711 Apple Inc. 9.92 113 92 92 60 94 712 Mastercard Incorporated Class A 9.86 5 354 153 73 55 2113 Twenty-Fi rs t Century Fox, Inc. Class A 9.86 99 66 61 28 217 13514 Microchip Technology Incorporated 9.79 7 128 169 296 211 415 Appl ied Materia ls , Inc. 9.77 11 156 37 322 78 24216 Caterpi l lar Inc. 9.71 33 155 100 268 35 7917 Amgen Inc. 9.62 125 44 1 129 388 22818 Al l iance Data Systems Corporation 9.53 118 22 66 233 311 5619 Cisco Systems, Inc. 9.45 270 41 16 4 228 31920 Zoetis , Inc. Class A 9.39 23 272 88 177 53 26121 Seagate Technology PLC 9.32 191 19 86 261 134 20122 DXC Technology Co. 9.31 73 142 226 132 45 4723 PACCAR Inc 9.28 186 45 112 35 342 2524 NVIDIA Corporation 9.26 15 422 69 184 34 12225 Intel Corporation 9.25 76 99 186 272 19 21526 Tyson Foods , Inc. Class A 9.24 170 87 267 10 24 14327 Il l inois Tool Works Inc. 9.21 32 342 127 14 54 26328 Estee Lauder Companies Inc. Class A 9.18 47 350 219 15 17 7829 NetApp, Inc. 9.13 177 93 52 241 68 21930 FLIR Systems, Inc. 9.10 159 211 152 26 13 12731 Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. 9.08 49 65 373 140 214 5832 AbbVie, Inc. 9.07 56 94 254 46 132 38333 Oracle Corporation 9.07 188 108 10 108 337 16134 BorgWarner Inc. 9.05 226 61 90 252 120 6935 Valero Energy Corporation 9.02 297 97 56 117 22 21236 Union Paci fic Corporation 9.01 58 137 182 160 191 18737 Starbucks Corporation 8.98 51 225 174 25 168 27338 Freeport-McMoRan, Inc. 8.97 70 52 49 407 312 3839 Tapestry, Inc. 8.96 106 68 62 305 338 5540 Cummins Inc. 8.95 105 62 162 277 283 5141 TE Connectivi ty Ltd. 8.95 103 173 235 199 10 12042 Lyondel lBasel l Industries NV 8.93 212 51 72 253 139 29543 Nucor Corporation 8.93 122 28 95 289 352 10844 Analog Devices , Inc. 8.93 18 213 341 238 69 16745 Air Products and Chemica ls , Inc. 8.89 306 202 19 67 39 8646 Intui t Inc. 8.81 13 355 309 41 31 39047 Marathon Petroleum Corporation 8.80 209 151 233 110 16 6748 Total System Services , Inc. 8.80 24 280 353 64 38 23149 H&R Block, Inc. 8.80 248 46 33 162 318 23750 Fastenal Company 8.78 124 171 87 150 182 196
Technical analysis Market ConsensusEarnings & Sales, Profit
Margins & Returns on EquityValuations Leverage & Liquidity Dividend Policy
Shaded according to which decile bucket the score for each dimension is ranked. Green = most attractive, Red = least attractive
EXAMPLE OF INDICATIVE MODEL OUTPUT: SECTORS (TOP 25%)
17
Shaded according to which decile bucket the score for each dimension is ranked. Green = most attractive, Red = least attractive
# Companies Score Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank
1 Valero Energy Corporation 8.95 18 1 4 9 2 192 Cabot Oi l & Gas Corporation 8.94 4 21 2 2 5 113 Marathon Petroleum Corporation 8.57 14 6 17 7 1 134 Cimarex Energy Co. 8.47 1 28 8 27 8 165 Phi l l ips 66 8.26 5 3 20 8 11 216 ConocoPhi l l ips 8.02 22 7 1 3 10 267 Exxon Mobi l Corporation 7.94 11 2 23 4 14 248 Chevron Corporation 7.78 8 4 22 5 17 27
Technical analysis Market ConsensusEnergyEarnings & Sales, Profit
Margins & Returns on EquityValuations Leverage & Liquidity Dividend Policy
# Companies Score Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank
1 Broadcom Limited 10.62 13 13 10 1 40 212 Texas Instruments Incorporated 10.29 6 33 18 2 12 293 Lam Research Corporation 10.09 16 19 8 31 16 124 Micron Technology, Inc. 10.04 14 9 14 60 4 95 Western Digi ta l Corporation 9.99 10 1 23 47 41 16 Microsoft Corporation 9.67 19 38 12 15 5 67 KLA-Tencor Corporation 9.66 3 11 27 29 55 238 Visa Inc. Class A 9.38 1 43 49 9 27 119 Skyworks Solutions , Inc. 9.14 18 23 1 38 47 33
10 Microchip Technology Incorporated 9.12 7 22 41 40 44 311 Mastercard Incorporated Class A 9.07 4 55 45 12 17 712 Appl ied Materia ls , Inc. 8.97 12 25 22 44 26 4913 Apple Inc. 8.91 35 17 31 11 37 214 NVIDIA Corporation 8.72 9 65 15 27 8 2015 Al l iance Data Systems Corporation 8.62 27 3 24 26 61 1616 Cisco Systems, Inc. 8.61 55 6 6 3 52 5817 Intel Corporation 8.39 24 14 55 35 10 38
Technology Technical analysis Market ConsensusEarnings & Sales, Profit
Margins & Returns on EquityValuations Leverage & Liquidity Dividend Policy
# Companies Score Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank
1 Tyson Foods, Inc. Class A 10.08 13 10 10 3 2 132 Estee Lauder Companies Inc. Class A 9.30 5 31 6 6 4 63 Peps iCo, Inc. 9.02 14 25 2 8 10 114 Kel logg Company 8.71 18 8 28 24 16 85 Altria Group, Inc. 8.69 10 21 16 5 20 76 Walgreens Boots Al l iance Inc 8.45 21 2 13 31 28 17 Kimberly-Clark Corporation 8.38 15 9 8 15 31 238 Constel lation Brands , Inc. Class A 8.35 4 32 20 17 12 3
Consumer Staples Technical analysis Market ConsensusEarnings & Sales, Profit
Margins & Returns on EquityValuations Leverage & Liquidity Dividend Policy
INDICATIVE MODEL OUTPUT (CONT’D): S&P500 EX FINANCIALS
18
Top Companies Rank M.CapP/E
17e
P/E
18e
P/BV
17e
P/BV
18e
P/FCF
17e
P/FCF
18e
D/Y
17e
D/Y
18e
EV/Ebitd
a 17e
EV/Ebitd
a 18e
EPS%
17e
EPS%
18e
DPS%
17e
DPS%
18e
Sales%
17e
Sales%
18e
ROE%
17e
ROE%
18e
Ebitda
Margin 17e
Ebitda
Margin 18e
Net Margin
17e
Net Margin
18e
Div Payout
17e
Div Payout
18e
From target
price
EPS18
Revisions
S&P 500 21.7 20.1 4.6 4.7 24.8 20.9 1.9% 2.0% 13.2 11.7 10.3% 13.7% 8.4% 6.8% 8.0% 8.6% 22.7% 23.5% 29.8% 30.4% 16.5% 16.9% 38.2% 36.9% 9.9% 14.9%
1 Broadcom Limited 11.13 107,991 16.7 15.0 5.2 5.1 20.7 17.1 1.5% 2.3% 9.81 9.35 39% 11% 110% 47% 33% 8% 31.0% 34.0% 66.3% 61.3% 41.0% 42.6% 25.6% 33.9% 13.0% 17.9%
2 Western Digi ta l Corporation 11.07 26,727 9.8 6.9 2.4 2.0 9.3 7.1 2.2% 2.2% 5.53 4.34 81% 42% 0% 0% 47% 7% 24.2% 29.2% 31.7% 34.6% 14.2% 19.7% 21.8% 15.3% 29.5% 66.7%
3 Lam Research Corporation 10.73 33,662 20.8 14.2 5.4 4.2 20.6 13.2 0.8% 0.9% 12.69 8.75 57% 47% 38% 9% 36% 29% 25.9% 29.7% 29.8% 31.7% 21.2% 24.3% 16.5% 12.3% 8.2% 94.4%
4 Texas Instruments Incorporated 10.67 95,373 22.2 21.3 8.9 8.5 21.7 19.7 2.2% 2.6% 13.71 13.00 25% 4% 29% 17% 12% 4% 39.8% 39.9% 46.5% 46.8% 29.7% 29.2% 48.7% 54.6% 3.3% 93.5%
5 KLA-Tencor Corporation 10.48 16,133 17.3 14.3 12.2 8.1 15.6 14.2 2.1% 2.3% 11.69 9.87 27% 21% 3% 10% 17% 13% 70.5% 56.4% 38.8% 39.7% 26.9% 28.9% 36.2% 32.8% 6.8% 92.3%
6 Micron Technology, Inc. 10.37 52,312 9.1 5.7 2.8 2.0 16.7 9.0 0.0% 0.0% 5.80 3.44 8167% 59% - - 64% 20% 31.0% 34.2% 49.2% 60.8% 25.0% 37.5% 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 91.3%
7 Visa Inc. Class A 10.37 252,024 31.7 27.2 7.9 7.5 31.1 27.9 0.6% 0.7% 19.92 17.81 23% 17% 18% 18% 22% 9% 24.9% 27.6% 70.2% 71.4% 45.4% 47.0% 19.0% 19.2% 13.8% 58.3%
8 Microsoft Corporation 10.13 640,157 25.1 24.5 9.0 6.6 20.7 19.1 1.9% 2.0% 15.57 13.62 19% 2% 8% 8% 5% 10% 35.7% 27.1% 39.4% 40.1% 26.8% 24.7% 47.1% 49.6% 9.7% 96.9%
9 Twenty-Fi rs t Century Fox, Inc. Class B10.06 52,600 14.5 14.0 3.3 2.8 15.2 14.6 1.3% 1.4% 9.24 8.51 12% 4% 20% 11% 4% 5% 22.7% 20.1% 25.2% 24.9% 12.6% 12.2% 18.7% 20.0% 25.2% -12.5%
10 Skyworks Solutions , Inc. 9.98 20,007 16.9 15.0 5.0 4.2 17.4 18.6 1.1% 1.2% 11.50 9.92 16% 13% 9% 11% 11% 11% 29.5% 28.1% 43.8% 44.2% 27.7% 28.5% 18.0% 17.8% 10.2% 16.0%
11 Apple Inc. 9.92 868,109 18.4 14.9 6.5 5.5 17.4 14.0 1.4% 1.6% 10.00 7.91 11% 23% 10% 10% 6% 19% 35.6% 37.1% 31.2% 31.8% 21.1% 20.9% 26.1% 23.4% 14.1% 94.3%
12 Mastercard Incorporated Class A 9.86 157,023 32.5 27.7 23.8 19.0 32.9 26.6 0.6% 0.7% 21.41 18.42 21% 18% 16% 14% 15% 13% 73.1% 68.6% 58.1% 59.2% 39.2% 39.6% 19.3% 18.7% 11.2% 91.9%
13 Twenty-Fi rs t Century Fox, Inc. Class A9.86 52,600 14.9 14.3 3.4 2.9 15.6 15.5 1.3% 1.4% 9.25 8.55 12% 4% 20% 11% 4% 5% 22.7% 20.3% 25.2% 24.9% 12.6% 12.2% 18.7% 19.9% 18.3% -19.2%
14 Microchip Technology Incorporated 9.79 20,956 16.5 15.4 5.8 5.0 17.5 15.1 1.6% 1.6% 12.50 11.55 36% 7% 1% 0% 14% 5% 35.5% 32.6% 44.7% 44.1% 33.6% 34.4% 26.7% 25.1% 20.0% 66.7%
15 Appl ied Materia ls , Inc. 9.77 59,478 17.3 15.0 6.7 5.3 20.9 14.5 0.7% 0.7% 13.14 10.89 84% 15% 0% 2% 34% 12% 38.5% 35.1% 30.6% 31.3% 24.1% 24.0% 12.4% 11.0% 5.8% 23.8%
16 Caterpi l lar Inc. 9.71 79,781 21.0 17.1 5.1 4.7 21.4 16.5 2.3% 2.4% 10.63 9.33 87% 23% 1% 3% 15% 9% 24.6% 27.6% 17.0% 17.6% 8.6% 9.5% 48.4% 40.7% 8.1% 95.8%
17 Amgen Inc. 9.62 122,955 13.4 13.2 3.9 3.5 12.6 12.1 2.7% 3.0% 8.41 8.26 9% 1% 15% 10% 0% 0% 29.1% 26.8% 60.4% 59.0% 40.8% 40.8% 36.3% 39.4% 11.0% -19.0%
18 Al l iance Data Systems Corporation 9.53 12,408 12.4 10.4 7.0 5.6 7.3 5.5 0.9% 0.9% 10.13 8.74 7% 19% 308% 0% 9% 11% 56.2% 53.4% 25.3% 26.4% 9.3% 10.3% 11.5% 9.7% 20.2% 4.0%
19 Cisco Systems, Inc. 9.45 168,905 14.3 14.0 2.6 2.5 13.3 12.5 3.2% 3.5% 7.73 7.47 1% 2% 17% 10% -3% 1% 18.1% 17.5% 35.6% 35.7% 25.1% 25.1% 45.9% 49.6% 5.5% 0.0%
20 Zoetis , Inc. Class A 9.39 33,925 29.4 25.7 19.7 18.4 26.9 20.9 0.6% 0.7% 19.14 16.66 21% 14% 11% 10% 7% 7% 66.8% 71.6% 37.3% 39.6% 22.2% 23.6% 17.8% 17.0% 2.7% 60.0%
21 Seagate Technology PLC 9.32 10,939 9.2 9.4 8.2 7.8 7.6 9.8 6.7% 6.7% 6.00 6.40 82% -2% 4% 0% -3% -4% 89.8% 83.5% 20.8% 20.1% 11.4% 11.1% 61.2% 62.6% 3.1% 66.7%
22 DXC Technology Co. 9.31 27,383 12.7 11.1 2.2 2.0 16.5 12.4 0.8% 0.8% 6.97 6.16 143% 15% 29% 0% 219% -1% 16.9% 17.7% 19.4% 21.2% 9.0% 10.3% 9.6% 8.3% 9.4% 84.2%
23 PACCAR Inc 9.28 23,976 16.3 14.6 3.1 2.7 15.7 14.4 2.5% 2.9% 9.54 8.91 9% 11% 11% 16% 13% 8% 18.8% 18.1% 17.8% 17.7% 8.3% 8.5% 41.2% 42.9% 12.9% 63.6%
24 NVIDIA Corporation 9.26 125,988 50.3 45.8 18.7 14.2 49.8 42.9 0.3% 0.3% 37.16 31.74 62% 10% 16% 5% 37% 14% 37.2% 31.0% 34.4% 34.9% 27.9% 26.7% 13.7% 13.1% 7.2% 89.3%
25 Intel Corporation 9.25 212,753 14.0 13.8 3.0 2.7 21.0 16.8 2.4% 2.5% 8.51 8.12 19% 2% 4% 4% 4% 3% 21.2% 19.5% 43.2% 43.4% 25.3% 24.7% 33.2% 33.9% 2.8% 85.7%
26 Tyson Foods , Inc. Class A 9.24 27,482 14.4 13.1 2.7 2.4 19.3 17.8 1.2% 1.6% 9.29 8.23 21% 9% 49% 33% 4% 6% 18.6% 18.0% 10.5% 10.8% 5.1% 5.3% 16.8% 20.5% 6.3% 75.0%
27 Il l inois Tool Works Inc. 9.21 53,394 23.4 21.7 10.6 10.1 29.3 26.1 1.8% 2.0% 15.10 14.12 17% 8% 19% 15% 4% 4% 45.6% 46.3% 27.3% 28.0% 16.3% 16.6% 40.9% 43.7% 2.3% 57.1%
28 Estee Lauder Companies Inc. Class A9.18 45,768 35.9 30.0 10.4 9.3 35.9 30.8 1.1% 1.2% 20.59 17.82 8% 20% 16% 13% 5% 11% 29.0% 31.1% 19.8% 20.6% 11.0% 11.8% 38.0% 35.7% 7.5% 100.0%
29 NetApp, Inc. 9.13 12,360 14.7 13.6 4.5 4.4 13.6 12.4 1.7% 1.8% 7.52 6.80 14% 8% 5% 4% 3% 2% 30.7% 32.1% 21.5% 22.6% 15.0% 15.6% 25.7% 24.7% 9.1% 8.3%
30 FLIR Systems, Inc. 9.10 6,541 25.4 22.4 3.4 3.1 25.9 20.4 1.3% 1.4% 16.56 13.97 10% 13% 28% 7% 8% 7% 13.4% 14.0% 21.8% 24.0% 12.8% 14.5% 32.3% 30.3% 8.1% 55.6%
31 Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. 9.08 26,230 16.6 14.2 2.5 2.3 12.2 1.8% 2.0% 12.75 11.77 22% 16% 26% 14% 3% 7% 15.3% 16.2% 30.5% 31.8% 18.2% 19.7% 29.2% 28.7% 12.6% 37.5%
32 AbbVie, Inc. 9.07 149,462 16.9 14.4 20.5 14.0 16.1 13.4 2.7% 3.0% 14.36 11.85 15% 18% 12% 11% 10% 11% 121.5% 97.8% 44.3% 46.8% 31.8% 33.5% 46.2% 43.5% 1.3% -11.1%
33 Oracle Corporation 9.07 203,750 16.6 15.4 3.3 3.1 15.6 14.9 1.5% 1.6% 10.13 9.24 7% 8% 21% 1% 5% 4% 20.1% 19.9% 47.0% 47.6% 31.8% 32.5% 25.7% 23.9% 16.8% -24.2%
34 BorgWarner Inc. 9.05 10,896 13.5 12.4 2.8 2.4 22.6 18.4 1.1% 1.2% 7.78 7.12 17% 9% 6% 6% 7% 7% 20.6% 19.2% 16.8% 16.7% 8.3% 8.4% 14.6% 14.2% 8.4% 90.5%
35 Valero Energy Corporation 9.02 35,654 16.8 13.3 1.8 1.7 25.6 17.4 3.4% 3.7% 7.06 6.29 31% 26% 17% 7% 20% -6% 10.6% 13.1% 6.2% 7.4% 2.4% 3.1% 57.6% 48.9% 2.5% 82.6%
36 Union Paci fic Corporation 9.01 91,075 19.9 17.9 4.8 4.7 22.3 20.7 2.1% 2.2% 10.59 9.92 15% 11% 7% 7% 6% 4% 24.0% 26.2% 47.3% 48.9% 22.0% 22.8% 41.7% 40.2% 8.0% 26.9%
37 Starbucks Corporation 8.98 81,172 27.5 24.4 15.0 19.0 31.2 28.7 1.9% 2.1% 15.33 14.02 8% 13% 24% 14% 5% 10% 54.5% 77.6% 24.0% 24.5% 12.9% 13.4% 51.0% 51.7% 11.1% -45.5%
38 Freeport-McMoRan, Inc. 8.97 19,731 12.5 8.2 2.6 2.0 7.3 6.7 0.0% 0.0% 5.15 3.76 375% 52% - - 8% 9% 20.9% 24.6% 35.0% 40.4% 9.6% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 54.2%
39 Tapestry, Inc. 8.96 11,449 18.7 17.0 3.8 3.5 19.9 19.2 3.4% 3.4% 9.80 7.59 9% 10% 0% 0% 0% 30% 20.3% 20.9% 22.6% 21.6% 13.6% 11.8% 62.8% 56.9% 19.3% 7.9%
40 Cummins Inc. 8.95 27,690 16.3 14.5 3.6 3.2 17.7 16.7 2.5% 2.6% 9.40 8.46 24% 12% 5% 3% 15% 6% 22.0% 22.3% 15.0% 15.5% 8.5% 8.9% 41.2% 37.6% 9.4% 91.3%
SOURCES: FACTSET, ECONOMICS & INVESTMENT STRATEGY
INDICATIVE MODEL OUTPUT (CONT’D): SECTORS (TOP 25%)
19
Top Companies Rank M.CapP/E
17e
P/E
18e
P/BV
17e
P/BV
18e
P/FCF
17e
P/FCF
18e
D/Y
17e
D/Y
18e
EV/Ebitd
a 17e
EV/Ebitd
a 18e
EPS%
17e
EPS%
18e
DPS%
17e
DPS%
18e
Sales%
17e
Sales%
18e
ROE%
17e
ROE%
18e
Ebitda
Margin 17e
Ebitda
Margin 18e
Net Margin
17e
Net Margin
18e
Div Payout
17e
Div Payout
18e
From target
price
EPS18
Revisions
S&P 500 21.7 20.1 4.6 4.7 24.8 20.9 1.9% 2.0% 13.2 11.7 10.3% 13.7% 8.4% 6.8% 8.0% 8.6% 22.7% 23.5% 29.8% 30.4% 16.5% 16.9% 38.2% 36.9% 9.9% 14.9%
Ενέργεια 28.1 27.1 2.1 2.1 28.3 25.5 2.9% 3.0% 9.9 8.5 96.8% 17.5% 2.0% 3.0% 18.1% 5.3% 5.9% 7.9% 27.1% 28.7% 4.9% 6.3% 93.0% 79.2% 11.2% 25.8%
1 Valero Energy Corporation 8.95 35,654 16.8 13.3 1.8 1.7 25.6 17.4 3.4% 3.7% 7.06 6.29 31% 26% 17% 7% 20% -6% 10.6% 13.1% 6.2% 7.4% 2.4% 3.1% 57.6% 48.9% 2.5% 82.6%
2 Cabot Oi l & Gas Corporation 8.94 13,158 52.2 29.5 4.9 4.3 299.5 111.6 0.6% 0.7% 13.22 9.77 - 77% 114% 18% 56% 24% 9.4% 14.6% 59.5% 64.4% 12.0% 19.9% 31.2% 20.7% 12.5% 69.0%
3 Marathon Petroleum Corporation 8.57 30,037 16.4 14.3 2.4 2.4 111.8 21.7 2.5% 2.7% 7.02 6.80 72% 15% 12% 11% 15% -4% 14.9% 17.0% 8.2% 9.3% 2.6% 2.9% 40.4% 38.9% 10.6% 70.0%
4 Cimarex Energy Co. 8.47 11,006 26.3 21.8 4.4 3.7 56.6 0.3% 0.3% 10.36 8.87 527% 21% -21% 0% 48% 22% 16.6% 16.8% 62.4% 60.6% 23.2% 21.9% 7.3% 6.0% 14.3% 40.7%
5 Phi l l ips 66 8.26 47,351 20.3 15.0 2.1 2.1 24.8 26.3 2.9% 3.2% 9.73 8.34 61% 35% 11% 10% 17% 13% 10.3% 13.8% 5.7% 5.8% 2.4% 2.9% 60.0% 48.7% 5.3% 55.0%
6 ConocoPhi l l ips 8.02 60,362 100.0 36.3 2.0 2.1 8.1 17.1 2.1% 2.2% 7.43 6.96 - 175% 6% 5% 28% -6% 2.0% 5.8% 31.6% 35.8% 2.0% 6.1% 209.9% 79.9% 12.9% 15.0%
7 Exxon Mobi l Corporation 7.94 344,095 22.8 20.6 1.9 1.9 27.9 27.7 3.8% 3.9% 8.97 8.35 51% 11% 3% 3% 17% 6% 8.4% 9.2% 16.1% 16.3% 5.8% 6.1% 85.9% 79.5% 3.4% 50.0%
8 Chevron Corporation 7.78 221,182 28.5 23.5 1.5 1.5 18.0 19.1 3.7% 3.8% 8.15 6.90 282% 22% 1% 2% 20% 4% 5.3% 6.4% 22.9% 25.4% 5.8% 6.5% 105.9% 89.2% 7.3% 15.4%
Top Companies Rank M.CapP/E
17e
P/E
18e
P/BV
17e
P/BV
18e
P/FCF
17e
P/FCF
18e
D/Y
17e
D/Y
18e
EV/Ebitd
a 17e
EV/Ebitd
a 18e
EPS%
17e
EPS%
18e
DPS%
17e
DPS%
18e
Sales%
17e
Sales%
18e
ROE%
17e
ROE%
18e
Ebitda
Margin 17e
Ebitda
Margin 18e
Net Margin
17e
Net Margin
18e
Div Payout
17e
Div Payout
18e
From target
price
EPS18
Revisions
S&P 500 21.7 20.1 4.6 4.7 24.8 20.9 1.9% 2.0% 13.2 11.7 10.3% 13.7% 8.4% 6.8% 8.0% 8.6% 22.7% 23.5% 29.8% 30.4% 16.5% 16.9% 38.2% 36.9% 9.9% 14.9%
Τεχνολογία 24.4 22.0 6.5 5.8 23.3 20.4 1.2% 1.3% 14.1 12.1 11.4% 16.6% 10.3% 9.0% 9.7% 15.7% 29.2% 27.9% 39.8% 39.8% 25.1% 24.9% 22.2% 22.4% 10.8% 59.0%
1 Broadcom Limited 10.62 107,991 16.7 15.0 5.2 5.1 20.7 17.1 1.5% 2.3% 9.81 9.35 39% 11% 110% 47% 33% 8% 31.0% 34.0% 66.3% 61.3% 41.0% 42.6% 25.6% 33.9% 13.0% 17.9%
2 Texas Instruments Incorporated 10.29 95,373 22.2 21.3 8.9 8.5 21.7 19.7 2.2% 2.6% 13.71 13.00 25% 4% 29% 17% 12% 4% 39.8% 39.9% 46.5% 46.8% 29.7% 29.2% 48.7% 54.6% 3.3% 93.5%
3 Lam Research Corporation 10.09 33,662 20.8 14.2 5.4 4.2 20.6 13.2 0.8% 0.9% 12.69 8.75 57% 47% 38% 9% 36% 29% 25.9% 29.7% 29.8% 31.7% 21.2% 24.3% 16.5% 12.3% 8.2% 94.4%
4 Micron Technology, Inc. 10.04 52,312 9.1 5.7 2.8 2.0 16.7 9.0 0.0% 0.0% 5.80 3.44 8167% 59% - - 64% 20% 31.0% 34.2% 49.2% 60.8% 25.0% 37.5% 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 91.3%
5 Western Digi ta l Corporation 9.99 26,727 9.8 6.9 2.4 2.0 9.3 7.1 2.2% 2.2% 5.53 4.34 81% 42% 0% 0% 47% 7% 24.2% 29.2% 31.7% 34.6% 14.2% 19.7% 21.8% 15.3% 29.5% 66.7%
6 Microsoft Corporation 9.67 640,157 25.1 24.5 9.0 6.6 20.7 19.1 1.9% 2.0% 15.57 13.62 19% 2% 8% 8% 5% 10% 35.7% 27.1% 39.4% 40.1% 26.8% 24.7% 47.1% 49.6% 9.7% 96.9%
7 KLA-Tencor Corporation 9.66 16,133 17.3 14.3 12.2 8.1 15.6 14.2 2.1% 2.3% 11.69 9.87 27% 21% 3% 10% 17% 13% 70.5% 56.4% 38.8% 39.7% 26.9% 28.9% 36.2% 32.8% 6.8% 92.3%
8 Visa Inc. Class A 9.38 252,024 31.7 27.2 7.9 7.5 31.1 27.9 0.6% 0.7% 19.92 17.81 23% 17% 18% 18% 22% 9% 24.9% 27.6% 70.2% 71.4% 45.4% 47.0% 19.0% 19.2% 13.8% 58.3%
9 Skyworks Solutions , Inc. 9.14 20,007 16.9 15.0 5.0 4.2 17.4 18.6 1.1% 1.2% 11.50 9.92 16% 13% 9% 11% 11% 11% 29.5% 28.1% 43.8% 44.2% 27.7% 28.5% 18.0% 17.8% 10.2% 16.0%
10 Microchip Technology Incorporated 9.12 20,956 16.5 15.4 5.8 5.0 17.5 15.1 1.6% 1.6% 12.50 11.55 36% 7% 1% 0% 14% 5% 35.5% 32.6% 44.7% 44.1% 33.6% 34.4% 26.7% 25.1% 20.0% 66.7%
11 Mastercard Incorporated Class A 9.07 157,023 32.5 27.7 23.8 19.0 32.9 26.6 0.6% 0.7% 21.41 18.42 21% 18% 16% 14% 15% 13% 73.1% 68.6% 58.1% 59.2% 39.2% 39.6% 19.3% 18.7% 11.2% 91.9%
12 Appl ied Materia ls , Inc. 8.97 59,478 17.3 15.0 6.7 5.3 20.9 14.5 0.7% 0.7% 13.14 10.89 84% 15% 0% 2% 34% 12% 38.5% 35.1% 30.6% 31.3% 24.1% 24.0% 12.4% 11.0% 5.8% 23.8%
13 Apple Inc. 8.91 868,109 18.4 14.9 6.5 5.5 17.4 14.0 1.4% 1.6% 10.00 7.91 11% 23% 10% 10% 6% 19% 35.6% 37.1% 31.2% 31.8% 21.1% 20.9% 26.1% 23.4% 14.1% 94.3%
14 NVIDIA Corporation 8.72 125,988 50.3 45.8 18.7 14.2 49.8 42.9 0.3% 0.3% 37.16 31.74 62% 10% 16% 5% 37% 14% 37.2% 31.0% 34.4% 34.9% 27.9% 26.7% 13.7% 13.1% 7.2% 89.3%
15 Al l iance Data Systems Corporation 8.62 12,408 12.4 10.4 7.0 5.6 7.3 5.5 0.9% 0.9% 10.13 8.74 7% 19% 308% 0% 9% 11% 56.2% 53.4% 25.3% 26.4% 9.3% 10.3% 11.5% 9.7% 20.2% 4.0%
16 Cisco Systems, Inc. 8.61 168,905 14.3 14.0 2.6 2.5 13.3 12.5 3.2% 3.5% 7.73 7.47 1% 2% 17% 10% -3% 1% 18.1% 17.5% 35.6% 35.7% 25.1% 25.1% 45.9% 49.6% 5.5% 0.0%
17 Intel Corporation 8.39 212,753 14.0 13.8 3.0 2.7 21.0 16.8 2.4% 2.5% 8.51 8.12 19% 2% 4% 4% 4% 3% 21.2% 19.5% 43.2% 43.4% 25.3% 24.7% 33.2% 33.9% 2.8% 85.7%
Top Companies Rank M.CapP/E
17e
P/E
18e
P/BV
17e
P/BV
18e
P/FCF
17e
P/FCF
18e
D/Y
17e
D/Y
18e
EV/Ebitd
a 17e
EV/Ebitd
a 18e
EPS%
17e
EPS%
18e
DPS%
17e
DPS%
18e
Sales%
17e
Sales%
18e
ROE%
17e
ROE%
18e
Ebitda
Margin 17e
Ebitda
Margin 18e
Net Margin
17e
Net Margin
18e
Div Payout
17e
Div Payout
18e
From target
price
EPS18
Revisions
S&P 500 21.7 20.1 4.6 4.7 24.8 20.9 1.9% 2.0% 13.2 11.7 10.3% 13.7% 8.4% 6.8% 8.0% 8.6% 22.7% 23.5% 29.8% 30.4% 16.5% 16.9% 38.2% 36.9% 9.9% 14.9%
Μη Κυκλικά 21.8 20.2 5.9 6.0 27.2 22.2 2.8% 2.8% 14.0 13.4 4.5% 6.9% 7.3% 2.2% 1.6% 3.0% 29.0% 31.4% 23.4% 24.3% 14.1% 14.8% 60.9% 55.7% 7.5% -3.1%
1 Tyson Foods, Inc. Class A 10.08 27,482 14.4 13.1 2.7 2.4 19.3 17.8 1.2% 1.6% 9.29 8.23 21% 9% 49% 33% 4% 6% 18.6% 18.0% 10.5% 10.8% 5.1% 5.3% 16.8% 20.5% 6.3% 75.0%
2 Estee Lauder Companies Inc. Class A9.30 45,768 35.9 30.0 10.4 9.3 35.9 30.8 1.1% 1.2% 20.59 17.82 8% 20% 16% 13% 5% 11% 29.0% 31.1% 19.8% 20.6% 11.0% 11.8% 38.0% 35.7% 7.5% 100.0%
3 Peps iCo, Inc. 9.02 163,689 22.0 20.5 12.2 11.7 23.2 21.9 2.8% 2.9% 13.99 13.27 8% 7% 7% 7% 1% 4% 55.3% 57.2% 20.8% 21.1% 11.8% 12.1% 60.6% 60.5% 7.7% 17.4%
4 Kel logg Company 8.71 22,020 15.8 14.9 11.2 9.4 19.2 17.7 3.3% 3.5% 11.24 10.73 8% 6% 4% 5% -2% 0% 70.6% 62.8% 20.7% 21.6% 11.1% 11.6% 52.6% 52.0% 8.3% 10.0%
5 Altria Group, Inc. 8.69 124,528 19.9 18.2 11.6 3.9% 4.2% 13.50 12.95 8% 9% 8% 9% 2% 2% 64.0% 51.1% 52.1% 32.1% 33.8% 77.4% 77.2% 10.3% 0.0%
6 Walgreens Boots Al l iance Inc 8.45 70,870 13.8 12.6 2.7 2.4 11.0 2.2% 2.3% 9.08 11% 9% 6% 6% 1% 10% 19.5% 19.1% 7.5% 7.4% 4.7% 4.4% 29.9% 29.2% 25.4% 42.1%
7 Kimberly-Clark Corporation 8.38 39,900 18.3 17.4 176.9 56.0 18.3 16.3 3.4% 3.6% 11.44 11.09 3% 5% 6% 5% 0% 2% 966.8% 322.3% 22.3% 22.5% 12.1% 12.4% 62.6% 62.3% 6.7% -40.0%
8 Constel lation Brands , Inc. Class A 8.35 42,479 25.7 23.4 5.2 4.8 51.3 33.9 1.0% 1.1% 18.46 16.80 25% 10% 30% 14% 4% 7% 20.1% 20.5% 36.4% 37.5% 22.2% 22.4% 24.6% 25.5% 7.8% 78.9%
SOURCES: FACTSET, ECONOMICS & INVESTMENT STRATEGY
20
QUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT
QUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT
21
Sector allocation guides us to the number of companies we choose from each industry for our portfolio, using S&P500 asbenchmark
The top 25% companies of each sector that stand out from the scoring process, are selected for further analysis, in orderto have companies in our portfolio that offer competitive advantages and the best investment prospects. Specifically weare looking for:
o Leaders in sectors or markets with high entry barriers
o Solid brand names
o Companies with geographical sales diversification
o Companies with technological advantage
The qualitative assessment and monitoring is a continuous process run by Piraeus Bank’s Investment Strategy team
The Equity Screening Model of Piraeus Bank is certified as per ELOT EN ISO 9001:2008
Actions on equity portfolio:
o Follow daily news flow
o Focus on daily volatility
o Focus on quarterly results
The quantitative model is run at least on a quarterly basis and is subject to periodical reparametrization and recalibration
22
INDICATIVE PORTFOLIOS
EXAMPLE: PORTFOLIOS
23
US
Eurozone
COMPANY SHARES
COST
per
SHARE TOTAL COST
% at
COST
CURRENT
VALUE
% at
C.V
PROFIT
(LOSS)
PROFIT
(LOSS) %
Dividend
Received
TOTAL
PROFIT
(LOSS)
TOTAL
RETURN
(%) 1 DAY WEEKLY
% CNGE
SINCE
6/23/2014
or Trade
Date Y.T.D
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 24.63 25.13%
Mastercard Inc 720 87.00 62,640.00 6.38% 107,704.80 8.28% 45,064.80 71.94% 1641.60 46,706.40 74.56% 0.00% 0.55% 71.94% 44.88%
Alphabet Inc 95 665.07 63,181.65 6.43% 99,434.60 7.65% 36,252.95 57.38% 0.00 36,252.95 57.38% 0.00% 1.32% 57.38% 32.08%
Broadcom Ltd 440 139.63 61,437.20 6.25% 119,592.00 9.20% 58,154.80 94.66% 2,455.20 60,610.00 98.65% 0.00% 2.99% 94.66% 94.66%
INDUSTRIALS 10.01 14.27%
FedEx Corp 420 148.88 62,529.60 6.36% 93,072.00 7.16% 30,542.40 48.84% 1764.00 32,306.40 51.67% 0.00% (1.86%) 48.84% 19.01%
Honeywell International Inc 630 100.32 63,201.60 6.43% 92,502.90 7.11% 29,301.30 46.36% 3,175.20 32,476.50 51.39% 0.00% 1.85% 46.36% 26.74%
ENERGY 6.06 2.95%
Schlumberger Ltd 574 108.90 62,508.60 6.36% 38,380.51 2.95% (24,128.09) (38.60%) 3,616.20 (20,511.89) (32.81%) 0.00% 4.48% (38.60%) (20.35%)
HEALTHCARE 14.01 15.47%
Johnson & Johnson 670 94.40 63,248.00 6.44% 93,109.90 7.16% 29,861.90 47.21% 4,274.60 34,136.50 53.97% 0.00% (0.32%) 47.21% 20.62%
UnitedHealth Group Inc 510 121.66 62,046.60 6.31% 107,977.20 8.30% 45,930.60 74.03% 2,295.00 48,225.60 77.72% 0.00% 0.71% 74.03% 74.03%
FINANCIALS 14.61 13.32%
JPMorgan Chase & Co 1,074 58.19 62,496.06 6.36% 107,367.78 8.26% 44,871.72 71.80% 6,830.64 51,702.36 82.73% 0.00% (0.64%) 71.80% 15.85%
Wells Fargo & Co 1,180 52.98 62,516.40 6.36% 65,785.00 5.06% 3,268.60 5.23% 6,171.40 9,440.00 15.10% 0.00% (0.69%) 5.23% 1.16%
CONS. DISCRET 11.81 16.99%
Wyndham Worldwide Corp 830 74.36 61,718.80 6.28% 90,478.30 6.96% 28,759.50 46.60% 3104.20 31,863.70 51.63% 0.00% 2.02% 46.60% 46.60%
NIKE Inc 1,040 59.81 62,202.40 6.33% 57,553.60 4.43% (4,648.80) (7.47%) 1,081.60 (3,567.20) (5.73%) 0.00% 0.64% (7.47%) (7.47%)
Hasbro Inc 810 79.08 64,054.80 6.52% 72,900.00 5.61% 8,845.20 13.81% 3,782.70 12,627.90 19.71% 0.00% (2.80%) 13.81% 15.70%
CONS.STAPLES 7.84 3.65%
CVS Health Corp 690 91.21 62,934.90 6.41% 47,513.40 3.65% (15,421.50) (24.50%) 3,519.00 (11,902.50) (18.91%) 0.00% 0.48% (24.50%) (12.74%)
MATERIALS 2.99 0.08%
AdvanSix Inc 25 0.00 0.00 1,013.38 0.08% 1,013.38 144.33% 1,013.38 144.33% 0.00% (12.39%) 147.01% 147.01%
U.S PORTFOLIO 876,716.61 1,194,385.37 91.86% 317,668.76 36.23% 43,711.34 360,366.72 33.17%
Cash 105,817.01 8.14%
TOTAL U.S PORTFOLIO 982,533.62 1,300,202.37 100.00%
S&P 500 Index 32.08% 0.00% 0.66% 15.78%
PORTFOLIO vs. S&P 500 1.09%
COMPANY SHARES
COST
per
SHARE TOTAL COST
% at
COST
CURRENT
VALUE
% at
C.V
PROFIT
(LOSS)
PROFIT
(LOSS) %
Dividend
Received
TOTAL
PROFIT
(LOSS)
TOTAL
RETURN
(%) 1 DAY WEEKLY
% CNGE
SINCE
5/15/2014
or Trade
Date Y.T.D
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY 17.56%
Renault SA 900 82.93 74,637.00 6.85% 81,171.00 6.58% 6,534.00 8.75% 2,835.00 9,369.00 12.55% 0.06% 5.93% 8.75% 6.72%
ProSiebenSat.1 Media SE2,060 36.32 74,819.20 6.86% 57,525.50 4.66% (17,293.70) (23.11%) 3,914.00 (13,379.70) (17.88%) (2.86%) (6.75%) (23.11%) (23.72%)
Valeo SA 1,300 31.92 41,496.00 3.81% 78,013.00 6.32% 36,517.00 88.00% 3,878.33 40,395.33 97.35% 1.17% 3.29% 88.00% 9.89%
CONSUMER STAPLES 10.16%
Carrefour SA 2,575 23.09 59,446.25 5.45% 44,161.25 3.58% (15,285.00) (25.71%) 4,700.50 (10,584.50) (17.81%) (0.77%) (0.75%) (25.73%) (25.08%)
Henkel AG & Co KGaA 670 112.10 75,107.00 6.89% 81,237.50 6.58% 6,130.50 8.16% 1,085.40 7,215.90 9.61% (0.89%) 0.62% 8.16% 7.06%
HEALTH CARE 5.93%
Bayer AG 640 103.70 66,368.00 6.09% 73,248.00 5.93% 6,880.00 10.37% 3,328.00 10,208.00 15.38% 0.73% 2.46% 10.37% 15.45%
MATERIALS 7.60%
Smurfit Kappa Group PLC3,540 16.4650 58,286.10 5.35% 93,863.10 7.60% 35,577.00 61.04% 8,003.03 43,580.03 74.77% (0.33%) 3.55% 61.04% 21.63%
FINANCIALS 13.86%
BNP Paribas SA 1,280 52.17 66,777.60 6.13% 83,161.60 6.74% 16,384.00 24.54% 10,252.80 26,636.80 39.89% (1.22%) (3.09%) 24.54% 7.30%
ING Groep NV 5,580 13.39 74,688.30 6.85% 87,885.00 7.12% 13,196.70 17.67% 3,682.80 16,879.50 22.60% (0.22%) (0.69%) 17.67% 17.80%
INDUSTRIALS 12.98%
Koninklijke Philips NV 2,670 28.00 74,760.00 6.86% 94,144.20 7.63% 19,384.20 25.93% 2,136.00 21,520.20 28.79% (0.35%) 0.87% 25.93% 21.59%
Randstad Holding NV 1,270 53.04 67,360.80 6.18% 66,065.40 5.35% (1,295.40) (1.92%) 4,533.90 3,238.50 4.81% (0.76%) (1.51%) (1.92%) 0.95%
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 7.25%
Ingenico Group SA 1,080 62.05 67,014.00 6.15% 89,434.80 7.25% 22,420.80 33.46% 4,104.00 26,524.80 39.58% (0.60%) (0.64%) 33.46% 9.15%
UTILITIES 6.28%
EDP - Energias de Portugal SA26,180 2.86 74,743.90 6.86% 77,518.98 6.28% 2,775.08 3.71% 4,974.20 7,749.28 10.37% (0.20%) (3.33%) 3.71% 2.46%
ENERGY 5.67%
TOTAL SA 1,430 41.79 59,753.30 5.48% 69,977.05 5.67% 10,223.75 17.11% 8,641.80 18,865.55 31.57% 0.29% 2.22% 17.10% 0.44%
TELECOMS 6.24%
Orange SA 5,400 13.86 74,844.00 6.87% 76,977.00 6.24% 2,133.00 2.85% 2,133.00 2.85% (0.14%) 1.21% 2.85% (1.28%)
EUROPEAN PORTFOLIO 1,010,101.45 1,154,383.38 93.53% 144,281.93 14.28% 66,069.76 208,218.69 25.51%
Cash 79,891.71 6.47%
TOTAL EUROPEAN PORTFOLIO 1,089,993.16 1,234,275.09 100.00%
EURO STOXX Index 23.97%
PORTFOLIO vs. EUROSTOXX 1.53%
24
TRACK RECORD
TRACK RECORD
25
(15%)
(10%)
(5%)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
(15%)
(10%)
(5%)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
23
-Ju
n-2
014
17
-Au
g-2
01
4
11
-Oct
-20
14
5-D
ec-
20
14
29
-Jan
-20
15
25
-Mar
-20
15
19
-May
-20
15
13
-Ju
l-2
015
6-S
ep
-20
15
31
-Oct
-20
15
25
-Dec
-20
15
18
-Feb
-20
16
13
-Ap
r-2
016
7-J
un
-20
16
1-A
ug-
201
6
25
-Sep
-20
16
19
-No
v-2
01
6
13
-Jan
-20
17
9-M
ar-
20
17
3-M
ay-
201
7
27
-Ju
n-2
017
21
-Au
g-2
01
7
15
-Oct
-20
17
U.S PORTFOLIO (in $)
S&P 500
(15%)
(10%)
(5%)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
(15%)
(10%)
(5%)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
15
-May
-20
14
9-J
ul-
20
14
2-S
ep
-20
14
27
-Oct
-20
14
21
-Dec
-20
14
14
-Feb
-20
15
10
-Ap
r-2
015
4-J
un
-20
15
29
-Ju
l-2
015
22
-Sep
-20
15
16
-No
v-2
01
5
10
-Jan
-20
16
5-M
ar-
20
16
29
-Ap
r-2
016
23
-Ju
n-2
016
17
-Au
g-2
01
6
11
-Oct
-20
16
5-D
ec-
20
16
29
-Jan
-20
17
25
-Mar
-20
17
19
-May
-20
17
13
-Ju
l-2
017
6-S
ep
-20
17
31
-Oct
-20
17
EUROZONE PORTFOLIO PERFORM. SINCEEURO STOXX CUMUL. RETURN SINCE
Cumulative Returns
Portfolio S&P 500
2015 -2.5% -0.7% -1.8%
2016 11.3% 9.5% 1.7%
YTD 21.8% 15.8% 6.0%
Since Inception 33.2% 32.1% 1.1%
Jun-14
Relative
Performance
Portfolio EuroStoxx
2015 16.9% 8.0% 8.9%
2016 -2.1% 1.5% -3.6%
YTD 7.5% 13.6% -6.1%
Since Inception 25.5% 24.0% 1.5%
May-14
Relative
Performance
26
APPENDIX
EQUITIES ASSESSMENT MODEL: OVERALL STRUCTURE (XLS TEMPLATE)
27
TRUE
TRUE TRUE
TRUE TRUE
TRUE
EMARSI
EPS RevisionsTarget Price 52wk
D Y 4%
21%
P /E 6%P / FCF 9%P / BV 2%
Earnings & Sales,
Profit Margins &
Returns on Equity
Valuations
35%
EPS%Ebit %Sales %Ebitda Margin %Net Margin %ROE %
8%5%6%6%4%6%
Historical Data70%
Estimated Data30%
Cross Sectional60%
Across Time40%
Quick Ratio 7%
Leverage &
Liquidity
17%
Net Debt / Ebitda 6%EV / Ebitda 4%
Dividend Payout 3%
Dividend Policy
10%
Dividend % 7%
Technical Analysis
10%
6%4%
Market Consensus
7%
4%3%
EQUITIES ASSESSMENT MODEL: (XLS EXAMPLE – PART I)
28
Historical DataSample
Last12m data
10y median (2008 – 2016)
Premium/discount latest available data (exponential)
vs median(exponential)
Next12m data
Premium/discount expected data (exponential) vs latest available data (exponential)
Percentile Allocation on each sample
Annual
Median
EPS 2008
Annual
Median
EPS 2009
Annual
Median
EPS 2010
Annual
Median
EPS 2011
Annual
Median
EPS 2012
Annual
Median
EPS 2013
Annual
Median
EPS 2014
Annual
Median
EPS 2015
Annual
Median
EPS 2016
Last Twelve
Months - LTMA
Median EPS
Median EPS%Better /
Worse
Next Twelve
Months -
NTMA Median
EPS
Better /
Worse
Apple Inc. 36% 17% 141% 83% 60% -10% 14% 43% -10% 14% 36% -20.0% 20% 6.5%Alphabet Inc. Class A 47% 19% 28% 22% 9% 13% 16% 15% 17% -6% 17% -21.0% 22% 32.9%Alphabet Inc. Class C 47% 19% 28% 22% 9% 13% 16% 15% 17% -6% 17% -21.0% 22% 32.9%Microsoft Corporation 26% -12% 27% 28% 3% -7% 2% 0% 6% 20% 3% 17.8% 6% -13.0%Exxon Mobil Corporation 16% -53% 55% 35% -4% -9% -5% -45% -39% 44% -5% 64.3% 14% -25.9%
6% -23% -28% -8% -27%12% -8% -22% 1% -13%18% -4% -17% 3% -7%24% 0% -13% 5% -5%30% 1% -10% 7% -3%
36% 4% -8% 8% -1%
42% 5% -6% 8% 0%
48% 7% -4% 9% 1%
54% 8% -2% 10% 2%
60% 10% -1% 11% 3%
66% 11% 1% 12% 4%
72% 13% 3% 14% 6%
78% 16% 5% 16% 9%
84% 20% 10% 19% 14%90% 27% 18% 26% 22%96% 70% 82% 74% 51%
SOURCES: FACTSET, ECONOMICS & INVESTMENT STRATEGY
EQUITIES ASSESSMENT MODEL: (XLS EXAMPLE – PART II)
29
Scoring for each category
Historical data
Cross sectional
score
Across time score
Estimated data
Cross sectional
score
Across time score
Score for Historical data
=60% * cross
sectional score+
40% * across time score
Score for Estimated data
=60% * cross
sectional score+
40% * across time score
Final Score=
70% * historical data score
+30% * estimated
data score
Score for EPS% metric
=EPS% Weight
(8,0%)*
Final Score
Last12m
data
Premium/
Discount
Next 12m
data
Premium/
Discount
Apple Inc. 12 2 14 12Alphabet Inc. Class A 2 2 14 15Alphabet Inc. Class C 2 2 14 15Microsoft Corporation 13 14 4 1Exxon Mobil Corporation 15 15 12 1
Historical
Data
Estimated
Data
8 132 142 14
13 315 8
Final Score
1066
1013
EPS%
Score
0.760.460.460.821.02
SOURCES: FACTSET, ECONOMICS & INVESTMENT STRATEGY
EQUITIES ASSESSMENT MODEL: (XLS EXAMPLE – PART III)
30
Adding volatility factor
Percentile Allocation on each sample
EPS% Final Score=
EPS% Score*
Volatility Factor(1 + volatility factor score)
9% 6%18% 9%27% 11%36% 14%45% 18%
54% 22%
63% 28%
72% 36%
81% 55%
90% 84%
EPS%
Score
10y data -
EPS%
Volatily
Volatility
Factor
EPS% Final
Score
Apple Inc. 0.76 48% -6% 0.72Alphabet Inc. Class A 0.46 11% 6% 0.49Alphabet Inc. Class C 0.46 11% 6% 0.49Microsoft Corporation 0.82 15% 2% 0.83Exxon Mobil Corporation 1.02 37% -6% 0.96
SOURCES: FACTSET, ECONOMICS & INVESTMENT STRATEGY
31
Disclaimer: This document is produced by the Economic Research & Investment Strategy Department of Piraeus Bank (hereinafter "the Bank"), which is supervised by the European CentralBank (ECB), in collaboration with the Bank of Greece and is sent or provided to third parties, without any obligation of its author. This document or any part of it should not be duplicated in anyway without the prior written consent of its author.The information or opinions included in this document are addressed to existing or potential clients in a general manner, without taking into account the particular circumstances, theinvestment objectives, the financial ability, the experience and/or knowledge of the potential recipients of this document and, as a result, they do not constitute or should not be consideredneither as a solicitation or offer for the conduct of transactions in financial instruments or currencies nor as a recommendation or advice for decision making in relation to those. Taking intoaccount the aforementioned, the recipient of the information contained in this document should proceed with his/her own research, analysis, and confirmation of the information which isincluded in this document and seek for independent and professional legal, tax and investment advice, before proceeding with any investment decision making.The information depicted in this document is relied on sources that the Bank considers to be reliable and is provided on an "as is" basis, however, the Bank cannot warrant as to their accuracyand completeness. The opinions and estimates herein are related to the trend of the local and international financial markets at the indicated date (prices at closing time) and are subject tochanges without any prior notice. Notwithstanding the above, the Bank might include in this document investment researches, which have been conducted by third persons. In this case, theBank does not modify those researches, but it presents them on an "as is" basis, therefore, no responsibility is assumed in relation to the content of the aforementioned investment researches.The Bank is under no duty to update the information contained in this document. Considering the above, the Bank, the members of its Board of Directors and the relevant persons assume noresponsibility for the information included in the present document and/or for the outcome of any investment decisions made according to such information.Piraeus Bank Group is an organisation with a significant presence in the Greek market and an increasing one in the international markets providing a wide range of investment services. In thecontext of investment services offered by the Bank and/or any other Piraeus Group companies in general, there might be cases whereby conflict of interests may arise in relation to theinformation provided herein. Reference should be made to the fact that the Bank, the relevant persons and/or other Piraeus Group companies indicatively:a. Are not subject to any prohibition in relation to trading on own account or in the course of providing portfolio management services prior to the publication of thisdocument or the acquisition of any shares prior to any public offering or the acquisition of any other securities.b. May offer upon remuneration investment banking services to issuers for whom this document may contain information.c. May participate to the issuers' share capital or acquire other securities issued by the aforementioned issuers or attract other financial interests from them.d. Might provide market making or underwriting services to issuers that might be mentioned in this document.e. Might have published papers the content of which is different or incompatible to the information presented herein.The Bank as well as the other Piraeus Group's companies have enacted, implement and maintain an effective policy, which prevents circumstances that may give rise to conflicts of interestsand the dissemination of any information among the departments ("chinese walls") and they also constantly comply with the provisions and regulations relevant to inside information andmarket abuse. Also, the Bank confirms that it doesn't have any kind of interest or conflict of interest with a) any other legal entity or person that could have participated in the preparation ofthe present document and b) with any other legal entity or person that couldn't have participated in the preparation of the present document, but had access to it before its publication.It is duly stated that: the investments described in the present document include investment risks, among which the risk of losing the entire capital invested. In particular, it is stated that;a. The figures presented herein refer to the past and that the past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.b. In case the figures refer to simulated past performance, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.c. The return on investments might be positively or negatively affected as a result of currency fluctuations, in case the figures are denominated in a foreign currency (otherthan Euro).d. Any forecasts in relation to future performance, may not be a reliable indicator of future performance.e. The tax treatment of the information as well as transactions pertained in this document, depends on each investor's individual circumstances and may be subject tochange in the future. As a result, the recipient should seek for independent advice in relation to the applicable tax legislation.The distribution of the present document outside Greece and/or to persons governed by foreign law may be subject to restrictions or prohibitions according to the applicable legislation.Therefore, the recipient of the present should seek for independent advice in relation to the applicable legislation, in order to look into such restrictions and/or prohibitions.