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Diving into Phoenix’s economy and
demographics
Employment, output, housing, demographics and commuting patterns April 2014
Economy
Phoenix’s year-on-year growth is stable, but slower than in
previous cycles
-200.0
-150.0
-100.0
-50.0
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
Tot
al n
on-f
arm
12-
mon
th n
et c
hang
e (t
hous
ands
)
2
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Compared to the national average, Phoenix sees stronger peaks
and deeper troughs
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Tot
al n
on-f
arm
12-
mon
th %
cha
nge
Phoenix United States
3
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Even so, Phoenix’s average growth rate is 2.5x faster than that of
the United States overall
4
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
+3.7% 1975-present
average y-o-y
growth in Phoenix
+1.5% 1975-present
average y-o-y
growth across U.S.
Despite faster percentage gains than the rest of the country
recently, year-on-year growth slower than before the recession
5
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
-200.0
-150.0
-100.0
-50.0
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Une
mpl
oym
ent r
ate
(%)
12-m
onth
net
cha
nge
(tot
al n
on-f
arm
, tho
usan
ds)
12-month net change Unemployment rate
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
+105,200 +97,500 +30,900 -47,600 -147,500 -32,000 +26,300 +43,300 +50,200
Average 12-month net change
Additionally, Phoenix’s unemployment rate has rarely exceeded
that of the United States overall
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
Une
mpl
oym
ent r
ate
(%)
Phoenix United States
6
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics (U.S. current as of March 2014)
Phoenix
average:
5.3%
Phoenix
current:
6.5%
U.S.
average:
6.5%
U.S.
current:
6.7%
62.4% percentage of lost
jobs recovered in
Phoenix
Phoenix’s deep recession means that fewer than two-thirds of lost
jobs have been recovered, while the U.S. is approaching peak
7
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics (U.S. current as of March 2014)
95.0% percentage of los
jobs recovered
across the U.S.
Nearly 3 in 4 Phoenix residents work in government, PBS, retail
trade, health care, leisure or financial activities
8
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
375.2
305.4
211.9
202.7
184.9
164.2
93.2
88.8
83.5
80.3 64.2
86.2 Government
Professional and business services
Retail trade
Health care and social assistance
Leisure and hospitality
Financial activities
Construction
Durable goods
Wholesale trade
Other services
Transportation and utilities
All other subsectors
$52,620 $52,580 $51,890
$49,830
$48,270 $47,900 $47,100 $46,820 $46,800
$45,680
$43,120 $42,380 $42,320
$39,400
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
$55,000
Ann
ual m
ean
wag
e Phoenix has the lowest annual mean wage of any Sunbelt metro
area outside of Florida, advantageous for employers
9
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Economic Analysis
The average American
makes $46,440 per year. i
$128,259
$134,084
$142,985
$152,071
$168,570
$186,572
$195,749 $196,335
$183,523 $185,691
$192,321
$201,653
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
$200,000
$220,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
GD
P (
$ m
illio
ns)
For the first time, Phoenix’s GDP surpassed $200 billion, having
grown by 56.4 percent since 2001
10
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Economic Analysis
+56.4% 2001-2012 GDP
growth in
Phoenix
This is in line with the national growth rate of 53.4 percent
during the same period
11
+53.4% 2001-2012 GDP
growth across the
United States
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Economic Analysis
More than $1 of every $4 generated in Phoenix is related to
financial activities
Financial activities Professional and business services Government
Education and health services Manufacturing Retail trade
Wholesale trade Construction Leisure and hospitality
Transportation and warehousing Information Utilities
Other services Mining Agriculture
12
Subsector GDP
($ millions)
Financial activities $52,285
PBS $24,619
Government $18,951
Education and health services $18,271
Manufacturing $16,766
Retail trade $14,906
Wholesale trade $12,869
Construction $10,356
Leisure and hospitality $9,056
Transportation and warehousing $6,165
Information $5,790
Utilities $4,642
Other services $4,201
Mining $1,917
Agriculture $860
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Economic Analysis
65,259
62,617
44,280
37,272
18,533
9,272 8,300 9,081
15,967
18,737
3,737 5,810
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD 2013YTD 2014
Aut
horiz
ed h
ousi
ng s
tart
s While slowly growing, the number of new housing starts remains
well below average due rapid spec growth before the recession
13
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Census Bureau
Phoenix had the 7th-most investment in new housing starts in
2013 at $3.8 billion
14
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Census Bureau
Market Valuation of 2013
authorized starts
Houston $7,390,478,000
Dallas $6,883,246,000
New York $5,407,616,000
Los Angeles $5,327,800,000
Bay Area $4,872,872,000
Seattle $3,951,359,000
Phoenix $3,814,266,000
Atlanta $3,713,937,000
Washington, DC $3,572,036,000
Miami $3,210,511,000
Above markets $48,144,121,000
Rest of U.S. $128,660,688,000
2
3
4
6
7 8
9 5
10
1
After spiking and falling in the late 2000s, home prices are on the
rise, but well below their previous peak
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
Cas
e-S
hille
r In
dex
15
Source: JLL Research, Moody’s
Home prices are
36.6 below their
previous peak
Demographics
The Phoenix metro area’s population has grown by nearly 500.0
percent since 1960 and currently rests at 4.3 million
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2013
Pop
ulat
ion
17
4,329,534 Phoenix metro area
population in 2013
726,183 Phoenix metro area
population in 1960
392,742 384,699
313,627
263,615 263,556
236,214 230,704
205,875 198,463
170,296
131,897
110,287
76,184 69,335
-1,267
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
2010
-201
3 po
pula
tion
grow
th
In absolute terms, 2010-2013 growth totaled 205,875 people,
roughly average among major markets…
18
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Census Bureau
…and this represented growth 2.2x faster than the United States
as a whole
19
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
+4.9% 2010-2013
population growth
in Phoenix
+2.2% 2010-2013
population growth
across the U.S.
6.6% 6.3% 6.3%
6.1% 6.0%
5.6% 5.3%
5.0% 4.9% 4.7%
4.5% 4.2%
4.0% 3.8%
3.3% 3.1% 3.1%
2.9% 2.8%
2.3% 2.2% 2.0%
1.2% 1.1% 0.8% 0.8%
0.2% 0.0%
-0.6% -1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
2010
-201
3 po
pula
tion
grow
th
Because Phoenix’s metropolitan area is 4.4 million people, its
rate of growth is faster and was ninth from 2010 to 2013
20
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Census Bureau
Who is the average Phoenician?
21
My house
cost me
$174,100.
We make the
median
household
income of
$47,866.
I’m one of the
56.8 percent of
people who
own a home.
I’m one of the
2.8 people in my
household.
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Census Bureau
Despite the
traffic, it takes
me 24.4 minutes
to get to work.
25.9 percent
of us have a
bachelor’s
degree.
41,198
people have
moved here
since 2010.
How does Phoenix compare to the U.S. overall in certain
demographic categories?
22
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Median household income % with bachelor’s degree Household size Commute time
$47,886 Phoenix
$53,046 United States
25.9% Phoenix
28.5% United States
2.8 people Phoenix
2.6 people United States
24.4 min Phoenix
25.4 min United States
8.2% 7.6% 7.3%
6.6% 6.5%
8.1% 7.7% 7.1% 7.0% 6.8%
6.0% 5.0% 4.7%
3.3% 2.6% 2.3%
1.7% 1.4%
-6.3% -6.5% -6.6% -6.9% -7.2% -6.8% -6.6% -6.2% -6.7% -6.9% -7.2%
-6.6% -5.7%
-4.4%
-3.2% -2.4%
-1.9% -1.9%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
0-5years
5-9years
10-14years
15-19years
20-24years
25-29years
30-34years
35-39years
40-44years
45-49years
50-54years
55-59years
60-64years
65-69years
70-74years
75-79years
80-84years
85+years
Sha
re o
f pop
ulat
ion
Phoenix United States
Phoenix’s age distribution is younger than the national average,
with 3 in 5 residents under the age of 40
23
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Census Bureau
PHX 0-19:
29.7% U.S. 0-19:
26.3%
PHX 20-39:
29.4%
PHX 40-64:
29.5%
PHX 65+:
11.3%
U.S. 20-39:
26.8%
U.S. 40-64:
33.1%
U.S. 40-64:
13.8%
Commuting patterns
ZIP code Area Share of
employees
85308 Arrowhead Ranch 2.2%
85041 South Mountain 1.9%
85338 Goodyear 1.7%
85345 Peoria 1.5%
85032 Glendale 1.5%
85339 Laveen Village 1.4%
85392 Avondale 1.4%
85326 Buckeye 1.4%
85022 Lookout Mountain 1.4%
85254 Paradise Valley 1.3%
85379 Surprise 1.3%
85044 Ahwatukee 1.3%
85018 Camelback East 1.3%
85042 South Mountain 1.3%
85008 Camelback East 1.2%
All other areas - 77.9%
Downtown Phoenix commuters come in part from outer western
and northern suburbs
25
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Census Bureau
1
2
3
4 5
7
9 10
8
6
11
12
13
14
15
ZIP code Area Share of
employees
85308 Arrowhead Ranch 1.8%
85032 Glendale 1.7%
85016 Camelback East 1.7%
85041 South Mountain 1.6%
85018 Camelback East 1.5%
85022 Lookout Mountain 1.5%
85013 Midtown 1.5%
85339 Laveen Village 1.5%
85014 Camelback East 1.4%
85345 Peoria 1.4%
85225 Chandler 1.4%
85020 North Mountain 1.4%
85044 Ahwatukee 1.4%
85015 Alhambra 1.3%
85021 North Mountain 1.3%
All other areas - 77.6%
Midtown features a similar pattern, but with a slightly greater
emphasis on inner-suburban employee origins
26
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Census Bureau
1
2
6
8 4
10
11
12
13
9 3 14 7
15
5
ZIP code Area Share of
employees
85032 Glendale 2.4%
85254 Paradise Valley 2.3%
85308 Arrowhead Ranch 2.2%
85016 Camelback East 2.1%
85018 Camelback East 1.9%
85022 Lookout Mountain 1.8%
85260 Scottsdale Airpark 1.5%
85255 North Scottsdale 1.4%
85027 Deer Valley 1.4%
85020 North Mountain 1.4%
85251 D’town Scottsdale 1.3%
85086 Desert Hills (off-map) 1.2%
85050 Desert View 1.2%
85383 Peoria 1.2%
85014 Camelback East 1.2%
All other areas - 75.5%
Similarly, a significant number of Camelback Corridor
employees live in the northern suburban areas of Phoenix as well
27
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Census Bureau
1
2
3 8
7 6
9
10
5 11
13 14
15 4
ZIP code Area Share of
employees
85282 Tempe 5.5%
85281 Tempe 5.4%
85283 Tempe 3.6%
85226 Chandler 2.5%
85044 Ahwatukee 2.5%
85225 Chandler 2.1%
85224 Chandler 2.0%
85284 Tempe 2.0%
85202 Mesa 1.8%
85048 Ahwatukee 1.7%
85286 Chandler 1.7%
85201 Mesa 1.6%
85234 Gilbert 1.6%
85233 Gilbert 1.6%
85296 Gilbert 1.4%
All other areas - 65.5%
Tempe employees are far more localized, with around two-thirds
coming from the immediate south and east of the area
28
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Census Bureau
4
5
6
8
10 7
3
1
11
12
13 9
2
14
15
ZIP code Area Share of
employees
85254 Paradise Valley 4.6%
85260 Scottsdale Airpark 4.4%
85032 Paradise Valley 4.0%
85255 North Scottsdale 2.7%
85022 Lookout Mountain 2.3%
85308 Arrowhead Ranch 1.7%
85050 Desert View 1.7%
85251 D’town Scottsdale 1.6%
85259 East Scottsdale 1.6%
85024 Deer Valley 1.5%
85331 Cave Creek 1.5%
85027 Deer Valley 1.5%
85086 Desert Hills (off-map) 1.4%
85258 McCormick Ranch 1.4%
85281 Tempe 1.1%
All other areas - 67.0%
Scottsdale Airpark’s largest commuter origins are concentrated in
the northern and northeastern suburbs of the region
29
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Census Bureau
2
4
1 5
6 7
9
10 11
3
12
14
15
8
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