Orient Green

8/8/2019 Orient Green

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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

Orient Green Power (OGPL) is Indias leading renewable energy-based power

generation company focused on developing, owning and operating a diversified

portfolio of renewable energy power plants. OGPL, which currently has an

installed capacity of 213.0MW, has another 836.5MW of prospective capacity

expected to get operational by FY2013.

Huge potential for the development of renewable power: Indias renewableenergy-based power capacities have increased their share of total power capacity

from 2.0% in FY2003 to around 10.0% in 2010. Despite this, the renewable

power sector still has huge potential, which remains untapped. The countrys wind

power capacity stands at 10,890MW although the potential has been estimated at

approximately 48,500MW. The government has announced a number of fiscal

incentives and measures such as renewable power obligation and the renewable

energy certificate mechanisms, which are expected to spur growth of this sector.

Leading player in the renewable energy segment and poised for rapid growth:OGPL plans to increase capacity by more than four-folds to 1,049MW by FY2013

and is well poised to capitalise on the untapped potential in the renewable energy

space. OGPL currently has 405MW of wind power committed projects, and the

infrastructure is in place for majority of the projects. Financial closure has also

been achieved for most of the projects. It may be noted here that the execution

risks and project commissioning time are lower for renewable energy projects due

to the lower land requirement and lesser regulatory hassles. Hence, we believe

that OGPL has good revenue visibility going ahead.

Lower PLFs to suppress IRRs: OGPLs wind energy plants currently have a PLF of20-21% (varies according to wind density), which is lower than the normative PLF

of 25% set by the CERC. This would result in the company reporting lower IRRs

than the achievable IRRs if CERCs prescribed norms are achieved. Moreover, the

company also does not have fuel supply contracts in place along with lower

availability of fuel for the biomass plants, which would result in lower PLF than the

normative standard set by CERC.

Outlook and ValuationThe renewable energy sector is set for healthy growth due to its vast unexplored

potential and supportive government policies. Leader OGPL has also charted out

aggressive expansion plans to capitalise on the emerging opportunities in this

nascent but growing industry.

At the lower and upper price bands OGPL is available at implied P/BV of

1.7x 1.9x on FY2012E financials, which we believe is fair considering higher

RoEs of its business and the risks associated with lower PLFs. The IPO is available

at a premium to its private sector peer Indowind Energy (1.3x FY2012E P/BV),

which has lesser operational assets at 44MW. For OGPL, the EV/MW works out to

Rs6.3cr and Rs6cr on FY2012E capacity at both ends of the price band, which isat 10% and 7% premium to its replacement cost, which limits further upside

considering the return ratios. Hence, we recommend a Neutral view on the IPO.

NEUTRALIssue Open: September 21, 2010

Issue Close: September 23*, 2010*Note: Closes on Sept 24, 2010 for non-QIB bidders

Issue DetailsFace Value: Rs10

Present Eq. Paid up Capital: Rs276.6r

Offer Size: 16.36cr-19.15cr Shares*

Post Eq. Paid up Capital*: Rs440.2cr -Rs468.1cr

Issue size (amount): Rs900cr

Price Band: Rs47-55

Promoters holding Pre-Issue: 94.8%

Promoters holding Post-Issue*: 56.1% - 59.6%

Note:*at Lower and Upper price band respectively

Book BuildingQIBs At least 50%

Non-Institutional At least 15%

Retail At least 35%

Post Issue Shareholding PatternPromoters Group 56.1%

MF/Banks/IndianFIs/FIIs/Public & Others

43.9%

Rupesh Sankhe+91 22 4040 3800 Ext: 319

Email: [email protected]

V Srinivasan+91 22 4040 3800 Ext: 342

Email: [email protected]

Orient Green PowerUnexciting Orientation

IPO Note | Power

September 21, 2010


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Orient Green | IPO Note

September 21, 2010 2

Company Background

OGPL promoted by Shriram EPC is Indias leading renewable energy-based power

generation company focused on developing, owning and operating a diversified

portfolio of renewable energy power plants. With a total aggregate installed

capacity of 213.0MW, the company is the largest independent operator and

developer of renewable energy power plants in India. OGPLs operations can be

classified under three business verticals namely, wind energy business, bio-mass

power and other businesses such as small hydro electric plant, mini hydro electric

plant, solar and other renewable sources of power.

The companys operational projects comprise 172.5MW of wind energy projects

and 40.5MW of biomass projects. OGPLs portfolio of committed and

development projects includes approximately 836.5MW of prospective capacity,

comprising an estimated 643.0MW of wind energy projects, 178.5MW of biomass

projects and a small hydroelectric project of 15.0MW. OGPL is the second largest

IPP in both wind power generation and biomass-based power generation in India,

with a market share of 8.7%. and 7.1%, respectively.

OGPL has grown its business by acquiring, operating and developing renewable

energy assets of third parties and by developing green-field projects. The

companys diverse customer base include SEBs, distribution companies, private

commercial and industrial consumers and a power trading company

Exhibit 1:Project PortfolioParticulars/MW Operating Committed Development Total Gross Capacity Total attributable Capacity Wind 172.5 405.0 238.0 815.5

Biomass 40.5 73.5 105.0 219.0 207.6

Mini Hydro 0 0 15.0 15.0 7.7

Total Gross capacity 213.3 478.5 358.0 1049.5 0Total Attributable capacity* 209.7 464.4 334.7 0 1013.3

Source: RHP; Note: *Attributable capacity is arrived by adjusting for OGPLs stake in the projects

Industry Overview

Renewable energy principally comprises wind power, hydro power, solar power,

biomass energy and geo-thermal energy. Renewable energy sources have

increasingly become important contributors to the worlds energy supply portfolio

as they provide supply security, reduce dependency on fossil fuel resources, and

provide opportunities for mitigating green-house gases. According to the Energy

Information Administrations International Energy Outlook 2009 reference case,

renewable energy will be the fastest growing source of electricity generation,

increasing by around 2.9% annually to grow from 19.0% of the worlds electricity

generation in 2006 to 21.0% in 2030.

Renewable energy-based power capacities registered the highest pace in growth in

the overall capacity additions in India compared to non-renewable sources,

increasing their share of total power capacity from 2.0% in FY2003 to around

10.0% in 2010. Nonetheless, contribution from renewable energy sources towardsoverall generation has been low at around 3.0% due to the low plant load factor

(PLF) of renewable capacities.


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Wind energyWind energy capacity of 10,890MW accounts for 52.0% of the total renewable

capacity of the IPPs. The countrys onshore wind power potential has been

estimated at approximately 48,500MW. There is a growing number IPPs involved

in wind power generation in India, with nearly 15.0% of the total wind power

capacity installed as of March 2009 coming from the IPPs.

Biomass energyThe aggregate installed capacity of biomass-based power in India has increased at

a CAGR of 24.4% during FY2002-09. As of FY2009, the total installed capacity

including co-generation projects and waste-to-energy-based capacity was

1,811MW, of which 1,049MW comprised bagasse-based cogeneration, 703MW

agri-residue with the remaining comprising waste-to-energy. IPPs account for

nearly 75.0% of the total biomass power generation capacity in India.

Small/mini-hydroelectric powerThe aggregate installed capacity of small hydropower plants in India increased at

a CAGR of 8.1% over FY2003-09 from 1,519MW to 2,413MW. IPPs account for

nearly 33.0% of the total installed capacity for small hydropower in India. While

India has nearly total potential of 14,000MW for small hydropower, it has

achieved around 18.0% of this potential. A majority of the good small hydropower

sites are in the north and north-eastern regions of India.

IPO DetailsOGPL has set a price band of Rs47-55/share for its Rs900cr IPO, which will be

open for subscription during September 21-23, 2010. At the lower and higher end

of the price band, the issue would involve dilution of 40.9% and 37.2% of the

fully-diluted post-issue paid-up capital of the company.

Exhibit 2:Shareholding PatternPre-Issue Post-Issue

No. of shares % No. of shares %PromoterOrient Green Power (Pte) Ltd 262,063,624 94.7 262,063,624 56.0

(37.7% held by Shriram EPC)

Shriram EPC Ltd 386,526 0.1 386,526 0.1

Sub-total 262,450,150 94.9 262,450,150 56.1OthersShriram Mgt. Cons (Pvt) Ltd 13,500,000 4.9 13,500,000 2.9

Bessemer India Capital Holdings II Ltd 386,526 0.1 386,526 0.1

AEP Investments (Mauritius) Ltd 252,212 0.1 252,212 0.1

Sub-total 14,138,738 5.1 14,138,738 3.0Issue to Public (At lower price band) - 0.0 191,489,361.7 40.9Total 276,588,888 100.0 468,078,250 100.0

Source: RHP, Angel Research


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Exhibit 3:Objects of the Issue (Rs cr)Particulars Est.Cost Spent tilldate To be spent from netproceeds

Proposed schedule fordeployment of netproceedsFY2011 FY2012

Construction and development of four biomass projects 213 31 61 33 28

Construction and development of a biomass and wind project bysubsidiaries

1,849 50 530 169 361

Repayment and prepayment of debt by subsidiaries 148 0 148 148 0

2,210Source: RHP


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Recommendation Rationale

Huge potential for the development of renewable power in IndiaRenewable energy-based power capacities have registered the highest pace ofgrowth in the overall capacity additions in India compared to non-renewable

sources, increasing their share of total power capacity from 2.0% in FY2003 to

around 10.0% in 2010. The renewable power sector has huge potential, which still

remains untapped. The key drivers for the renewable energy sector in India

include: (i) The demand-supply gap in the power sector (ii) Regulatory incentives

and the availability of CDM benefits and/or Indian renewable energy certificates

(REC), when fully-implemented by the Indian government, (iii) a large untapped

potential, (iv) environmental concerns regarding the use of fossil fuels, (v) the

desire to strengthen Indias energy security, and (vi) a viable solution for rural

electrification.

Exhibit 4:Renewable energy potential


Wind energy has become an attractive form of renewable energy in India due to its

sizeable untapped potential. Installed capacity of wind power in India has

increased at a CAGR of 30.0% since FY2005 and accounts for 70.0% of the total

renewable energy installed capacity in India. As of October 2009, Indias total

wind power capacity stood at approximately 10,890MW. Karnataka and Gujarat

have the highest wind energy potential at 11,531MW and 10,645MW,respectively. In terms of the utilising potential, Tamil Nadu leads with 78% gross

potential utilisation and capacity of 4,305MW. According to MNREs Annual Report

for 2008-2009, Indias onshore wind power potential is estimated at

approximately 48,500MW. Thus, only 22% of the total potential has been utilised

implying huge scope for development.

0

20

40

60

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

Wind Energy Mini-Hydro Biomass

Potential (LHS) Actual (LHS) % of achievement (RHS)

(%)(M

W)


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Exhibit 5:Wind Energy - Untapped potential (as of FY2009)State/MW Potential cap. Installed cap. % of gross potential utilisedKarnataka 11,537 1,327 11.5

Gujarat 10,645 1,567 14.7 Andhra Pradesh 8,968 123

Tamil Nadu 5,530 4,305 77.8

Rajasthan 4,858 738 15.2

Maharashtra 4,584 1,939 42.3

Kerala 1,171 27 2.3

Madhya Pradesh 1,019 213 20.9

Orissa 255 3 1.2

West Bengal - 1

Total 48,567 10,243 21.1Source: RHP, MNRE, Angel Research

As of October 2009, 2,125MW of aggregate installed capacity of biomass power

(including waste-to-energy) existed in India. Bagasse-based generation accounts

for 1,241MW, or approximately 58.0% and non-bagasse biomass-based power

accounts for 817MW, or approximately 38% of total biomass power. The

aggregate installed capacity of biomass-based power in India has increased at a

CAGR of 24.4% during FY2002 to FY2009. Currently, India is estimated to

produce approximately 500 million metric tonnes (mmt) of biomass per year, of

which approximately 120-150mmt is surplus, which can be utilised for power

generation of up to 17,000MW. In addition, there is also approximately 5,000MW

of power generation potential from bagasse-based cogeneration and around2,700MW from waste-to-energy projects

Exhibit 6:Potential for bagasse-based power in India


Government support: The government has undertaken various measures topromote renewable energy in India, which would act in favour of the companies in

the space. Renewable energy projects enjoy fiscal incentives such as 80%

accelerated depreciation, duty-free imports, tax holiday and preferential tariffs.

1,250 1,250

450 450350 300 300 300 350

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Maharashtra

UttarPradesh

Karnataka

TamilNadu

Gujarat

AndhraPradesh

Bihar

Punjab

Haryana

(MW)


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Lead player in renewable energy segment and poised for rapid growthThe company being the largest independent operator and developer of renewable

energy power plants in India is well-poised to capitalise on the untapped potential

in the renewable energy space. In addition to the 213.0MW of current operational

capacity, OGPL has a committed and development portfolio of approximately

836.5MW. The company plans to increase capacity by more than four-folds to

1,049MW by FY2013.

Exhibit 7:Cumulative capacity


A major advantage of the renewable energy projects is the shorter execution time

duration as compared to thermal projects. While the biomass projects can be

commissioned within 15-18 months, the wind energy projects can be executed

over six-seven months. The land requirement is low for these projects, while the

regulatory hassles are also comparatively lower. OGPL currently has 400MW of

wind power committed projects, and the infrastructure is in place for majority of

the projects. Financial closure has also been achieved for most of the projects. As

per management, construction works of the 74MW of biomass projects are at

advanced stages and hence would be commissioned over the next 7-8 months.

Mix of merchant and PPA-based off-take: A majority of the power generated fromthe companys biomass projects is sold to the state electricity boards (SEBs)

pursuant to long-term PPAs, which are generally 20 years in duration, providing

increased revenue visibility and an assured off-take. The company also sells power

from some of its biomass projects to private power consumers at rates higher than

the tariffs under long-term PPA contracts. We expect the company to sell the wind

power under both the PPA and merchant route.

The company is expected to benefit from the enforcement of renewable power

obligations (RPO) set by NAPCC. As per the current norms, 6% of the total power

requirement of the distribution utilities has to be procured from renewable energy

sources, which is programmed to increase to 15% in FY2020.

OGPL is expected to benefit from the proposed renewable energy certificates (REC)

mechanism. Under this mechanism, a REC will be issued by the designated agencyfor every 1MWH of power generated from the renewable energy sources and

generated into the grid. The RECs will be of two categories namely solar and

non-solar. The RECs can be sold to entities which have RPOs and will be traded at

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1HFY11E 2HFY11E 1HFY12E 1HFY13E 2HFY13E

Wind Biomass


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the power exchanges. The CERC has set a price of Rs1.5-3.9/kwh for trading non-

solar REC and Rs12.0-17.0 for trading solar REC.

Scouting for opportunities abroad: The company has also identified strategic areasof focus in Europe where the share of renewable energy is low and where the local

governments have enacted incentives for renewable energy. The European Union

(EU) member states in particular have 101 mandates to achieve 20.0% of energy

from renewable sources by 2020 as part of a larger EU initiative. In addition,

some of its target European markets such as the Czech Republic have established

subsidy schemes for improving renewable energy infrastructure. The company with

its experience in developing and operating wind farms in India is expected to have

competitive advantage in gaining leadership position in these markets.

Concerns

Lower PLFs to suppress IRRs: OGPLs wind energy plants currently have a PLF of20-21% (varies according to wind density), which is lower than the normative PLF

of 25% set by the CERC. This would result in the company reporting lower IRRs

than the achievable IRRs if CERCs prescribed norms are achieved. Moreover, the

company also does not have fuel supply contracts in place along with lower

availability of fuel for the biomass plants, which would result in lower PLF than the

normative standard set by CERC.

Poor financial health of SEBs: Renewable energy-based projects depend, to agreat extent, on the SEBs for off-take under RPOs, which is a concern. Most of the

SEBs suffer due to weak financial health on account of the huge losses incurred by

them due to the distribution of power at subsidised rates.

Uncertainty in fuel availability: Wind power plants generally suffer due to lowPLFs as the power generation primarily relies on the wind conditions, which vary

across the seasons. OGPLs wind energy plants currently have a PLF of 20-21%,

which is lower than the normative PLF of 25% set by the CERC. Going ahead, the

company has planned huge capacity addition in wind power, operations of which

could be hit by the changing weather patterns and resultant wind conditions.

Similarly, in case of the biomass plants, the company does not have any long-term

fuel tie-ups and relies on the farmers for sourcing raw materials such as wood, rice

husk, etc. Thus, any shortage in the availability of these raw materials and hike in

their prices would affect the companys profitability.


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Outlook and Valuation

The renewable energy sector is set for healthy growth due to its vast unexplored

potential and supportive government policies. Leader OGPL has charted out

aggressive expansion plans to capitalise on the emerging opportunities in this

nascent but growing industry.

At the lower and upper price bands OGPL is available at an implied P/BV of

1.7x 1.9x on FY2012E financials, which we believe is fair considering higher

RoEs of its business and the risks associated with lower PLFs. The IPO is available

at a premium to its private sector peer Indowind Energy (1.3x FY2012E P/BV),

which has lesser operational assets at 44MW. For OGPL, the EV/MW works out to

Rs6.3cr and Rs6cr on FY2012E capacity at both ends of the price band, which is at

10% and 7% premium to its replacement cost, which limits further upside

considering the return ratios. Hence, we recommend a Neutral view on the IPO.

Exhibit 8:Premium/Discount on Asset replacement (FY2012E)Parameter Higher end Lower endInstalled capacity (MW) 691.3 691.3 Wind Projects (MW) 577.3

Bio-Mass projects (MW) 114 114

No of shares ( cr) 44.02 46.81

Market Cap (Rs cr) 2,421 2,200Debt requirements (Rs cr) 2,029.8 2,029.8

Investments, Cash (Rs cr) 69.0 69.0

EV(Rs cr) 4,382.0 4,160.8

EV/MW (x) 6.3 6.0Blended Replacement cost (Rs cr) 5.6 5.6

Premium to replacement cost (%) 13 7Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 9:Peer comparison (Rs cr)Mcap EV/MW RoE (%) P/B (x)

FY10 FY10 FY11E FY12EOGPL 2,200 7.4 (7.6) 1.7* 1.7*

Indowind Energy 239 6.9 10.5 1.5 1.3

Source: RHP, Angel Research, Note: At lower end of the price band


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Profit and Loss statement (Consolidated)

Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010Net Sales 10.4 44.2

Other operating income 1.7 12.1Total operating income 12.1 56.2% chg - 364.0

Total Expenditure 16.7 55.5

Net Raw Materials 10.2 27.1

Personnel 1.9 6.0

Admin and Other exp 4.6 2

EBITDA (4.5) 0.7% chg - (114.9)

(% of Net Sales) (43.5) 1.5

Depreciation& Amortisation 1.5 8.6

EBIT (6.1) (7.9)% chg - 29.9

(% of Net Sales) (58.3) (17.9)

Interest & other Charges 3.2 11.0

Other Income 0.2 7.0

(% of PBT) (1.6) (58.6)

Share in profit of Associates

Recurring PBT (9.1) (12.0)% chg - 30.8

Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - -

PBT (reported) (9.1) (12.0)Tax (1.2) 0.5

(% of PBT) 13.0 (4.6)

PAT (reported) (8.0) (12.5)Minority Interest (0.0) (0.3)PAT after Minority Interest (8.0) (12.2)ADJ. PAT (8.0) (12.5)% chg - 57.2

(% of Net Sales) (76.1) (28.3)

Basic EPS (Rs) (1.6) (0.5)Fully Diluted EPS (Rs) (1.6) (0.5)% chg - (70.9)


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Balance Sheet (Consolidated)

Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010SOURCES OF FUNDSEquity Share Capital 51.2 276.6Preference Capital

Reserves& Surplus 150.9 93.3

Shareholders Funds 202.1 369.9Minority Interest 1.4 16.3

Total Loans 54.7 419.8

Deferred Tax Liability (1.4) (1.1)

Total Liabilities 256.7 804.8APPLICATION OF FUNDSGross Block 37.0 791.8

Less: Acc. Depreciation 4.0 38.6

Net Block 33.0 753.2

Capital Work-in-Progress 66.8 256.6

Goodwill 3.9 23.7

Investments 0.0 0.0

Current Assets 161.0 134.6Cash 16.3 31.0

Loans & Advances 132.9 49.1

Other 11.8 54.6

Current liabilities 8.0 363.3

Net Current Assets 153.0 (228.7)

Mis. Exp. not written off - -

Total Assets 256.7 804.8


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Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angeltrade.com

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S t b 21 2010 13

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Tel: (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800

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