Offshore Storm Briefing - National Weather ServiceOffshore Storm Briefing What Has Changed? Decision Support Briefing #3 As of: 5 PM Oct 09, 2019 New York, NY Current Hazards. Weather

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

10/9/2019 5:32 PMFollow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook

Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories in

Effect for Thursday high tides

Wind Advisory in effect for Eastern LI and

SE CT Thu AM into Fri AM

Storm and Gale Warnings in Effect thru

Fri

Offshore Storm Briefing

What Has Changed?

Decision Support Briefing #3

As of: 5 PM Oct 09, 2019

New York, NY

Current Hazards

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Main Points

Hazard Impacts Location Timing

Coastal

Impacts

Strong

Winds

Flooding

Marine

• Minor to Moderate coastal

flooding.

• Inundation of 1 to 2 ft, locally

2 to 3 ft, in vulnerable areas,

• Areas of Dune Erosion and

localized Overwashes

• 20 to 35 MPH with gusts to 50

mph.

• Several Downed Trees and

tree limbs.

• Scattered Power Outages

• Additional 1 to 2 inches.

• Minor Flooding of Poor

Drainage Areas.

• Gale to Storm Conditions.

Seas of 10 to 18 ft on the

Ocean and 4 to 7 ft on LI

Sound.

• Vulnerable coastal

locales along NY/NJ

Harbor, all of LI, and

SW CT.

• Greatest threat for

moderate impacts will

be S and E bays of LI

and the north shore of

LI.

E LI, and SE CT

E LI, and SE CT

Nearshore Waters

Times of High tide Thu Pm

through Friday PM

Thursday

Tonight through Thursday

Through Friday

New York, NY

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None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme

Summary of Greatest Impacts




Coastal Impacts: Vulnerable locales along NY/NJ,

all of LI , and SW CT.

Strong Winds: E LI, and SE CT

Flooding: E LI, and SE CT

Marine: Nearshore Waters

New York, NY






10/9/2019 5:32 PMFollow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook New York, NY

Marine / Coastal Hazards Coastal Flood Hazards and Impacts: Moderate coastal flooding along the southern

and eastern bays of LI, low-lying north shore of

LI locations, and barrier beaches of LI.

Inundation of 2 to locally 3 ft above ground in

the most vulnerable locales.

Minor coastal flooding (inundation 1/2 to 1 ½ ft

above ground) in the most vulnerable coastal

locales of the advisory areas.

Several waterfront road closures expected with

minor damage to coastal properties possible.

Shoreline Hazards and Impacts: 5-9’ breaking waves along the oceanfront, 3 to

6’ along the twin forks, 3 to 5’ along northern LI

shoreline, 2 to 3’ along the north facing

shoreline of the bays.

Areas of Dune Erosion and localized

overwashes along the Atlantic ocean, Orient

Point, and north shore of LI shorefronts during

times of high tide.

Minor to locally Moderate damage to

shoreline/dune structures possible

Timing: During times of high tide Thursday Evening

through Friday Evening.

Coastal Flooding- Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories in Effect

Please go to the NWS New York, NY Coastal Flooding Page for the latest coastal flood forecast and the tools to visualize the coastal impacts.https://www.weather.gov/okx/coastalflood





https://www.weather.gov/okx/coastalflood



Greatest threat areas for Widespread Minor to Moderate inundation during Thursday Night

through Friday Night High Tides. (This inundation mapping product is experimental)

Coastal Flooding – Likely Inundation Areas









Areas with potential for minor to locally moderate inundation during Thursday Night

through Friday Night High Tide cycles. (This inundation mapping product is experimental)

Coastal Flooding – Potential Inundation Areas









Areas with potential for minor to locally moderate inundation during Thursday Night

through Friday Night High Tide cycles. (This inundation mapping product is experimental)

Coastal Flooding – Potential Inundation Areas









Coastal Flooding Defintions







Strong Winds – Wind Advisory in Effect

Peak Wind Gust Image

New York, NY

Hazards: Northeast winds of 20 to 35

mph with gusts to 50 mph,

across E LI and extreme SE

CT.

Impacts: Several downed trees and tree

limbs

Scattered power outages

Dangerous travel conditions for

high profile vehicles

Timing: Strongest winds from 6am Thu

through 6am Fri







Wind Advisory … from 6am Thu till 6am Fri

Wind Related Hazards







Heavy Rain

New York, NY

Hazards: Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches across

Eastern Long Island.

Rainfall rates of less than 1”/hr

Additional rainfall of ¼ to 1 inch across

western portions of the Tri-State

including NYC/NJ metro.

Impacts: Minor Flooding of poor drainage and

Low-lying Roads.

Timing: Heaviest rain from late Tonight through

Thursday afternoon.

Uncertainty: Swaths of locally heavier rainfall

possible.







Event Summary

Widespread Minor to Moderate coastal flood and shoreline impacts

Thursday Evening through Friday Evening

Highest threat for Moderate coastal impacts is along vulnerable

coastal locales along the southern and eastern bays of LI and north

shore of LI.

Strong Winds across E LI and extreme SE CT Thursday morning into

Friday morning

Storm conditions on the ocean waters and Gale conditions on

remainder of nearshore waters thru Friday

Seas of 12-18 ft on the ocean and 4 to 7 ft on LI Sound.

New York, NY





Documents

Offshore Storm Briefing - National Weather ServiceOffshore Storm Briefing What Has Changed? Decision Support Briefing #3 As of: 5 PM Oct 09, 2019 New York, NY Current Hazards. Weather