O ffi c e o f C o a s t S u r v e y / C o a s t S u r v e y D e v e l o p m e n t L a b

Transition, Progress, Challenges and Future Directions

Richard Patchen

NOAA’S National Ocean Service

IOOS SURA Shelf Hypoxia Meeting, 3-4 March 2011

O ffi c e o f C o a s t S u r v e y / C o a s t S u r v e y D e v e l o p m e n t L a b

The Pathway from Research to Operations and Applications

NOS CSDL actively manage these interfaces, through

community modeling partnerships

Research and Development

Academia, IOOS Regional Associations, Research

components of NOAA & other Fed

Agencies Private Sector

Evaluation and Testing,

Development, Transition to Operations

OperationsValue Added

Product Development

IOOS SURA TESTBED

O ffi c e o f C o a s t S u r v e y / C o a s t S u r v e y D e v e l o p m e n t L a b

CSDL Prototype Testbed: The Delaware Bay Model Evaluation Environment

ROMS, POM, ADCIRC, FVCOM, ELCIRC, SELFE, ....

COMMUNITY MODELS

Cape

Henlopen

Cape May

Maurice Rive

r

Bridgeto

n

Model Hindcast

Grids, Bathymetry, Environmental conditions

GridsBathymetry

Metrics

Historical Data Environmental conditions

O ffi c e o f C o a s t S u r v e y / C o a s t S u r v e y D e v e l o p m e n t L a b

1. CBOFS2 - original synoptic hindcast run (06/01/2003 - 08/31/2005) 2. As [1] but with river S = 03. As [1] but with river Q scaled with Wen Long's weights4. As [1] but with river S = 0 and river Q scaled with Wen Long's weights 5. As [1] but with twice the number of vertical levels (same sigma formulation,

Nz=40) 6. As [1] but with a nearly uniform vertical grid with the same number of levels

(Nz=20) 7. As [1] but with ROMS 4th order Akima vertical T/S discretization & with vertical

splines 8. As [1] but with ROMS 4th order Akima vertical T/S discretization & without

vertical splines

For 1. – 6., we used spline vertical advection in the vertical for T/S advection with vertical splines.

Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia TeamModel Parameter Evaluation --- Model Metrics

O ffi c e o f C o a s t S u r v e y / C o a s t S u r v e y D e v e l o p m e n t L a b

Individual Port Model Systems

Transition to a Regional Modeling Approach

Regional Model SystemsModeling Issues

1. Regional/Basin Model Nesting

2. Data Assimilation3. Expanded Need for

Comprehensive Data Sets

4. Regional vs. Local Metrics

IOOS SURA TESTBED

O ffi c e o f C o a s t S u r v e y / C o a s t S u r v e y D e v e l o p m e n t L a b

Coupling of Basin Model to Shelf/Estuary Model

IOOS SURA Shelf Hypoxia Team Activities

1. Investigate nesting algorithms/methodology, sensitivity and Robustness with Hetland’s MCH shelf model (ROMS) with Navy and NGOM

2. NOS’s Northern Gulf Operational Forecast System (NGOFS) (FVCOM) with Navy and NGOM

O ffi c e o f C o a s t S u r v e y / C o a s t S u r v e y D e v e l o p m e n t L a b

Ecosystem Applications of Circulation ModelsNoxious biota - Sea nettle probabilities

Salinity

SST Likelihood of Chrysaora

Hazardous Materials Transport

Harmful Algal Blooms – Red Tide West Florida Shelf

O ffi c e o f C o a s t S u r v e y / C o a s t S u r v e y D e v e l o p m e n t L a b

3D Nested/Coupled ModelModel Results

Tracer patch method : Passive/Inert tracer evolution within ROMSParticle tracking method : CSDL’s Chesapeake Bay Oyster Larvae Tracker (CBOLT)

Observed Initial Patch Digitized Initial Patch

Initialization HAB patch

7-day Hindcast

Need 3D velocities as 2D depth-averaged velocities miss near-

shore upwelling behavior

O ffi c e o f C o a s t S u r v e y / C o a s t S u r v e y D e v e l o p m e n t L a b

IOOS SURA Testbed Estuarine Hypoxia Team

• Model : examine hypoxia via DO using a 1-equation model with constant respiration (Malcolm Scully/ODU)

• Model Set-up : embed DO model within NOAA/NOS Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast System (CBOFS)

DO in ROMS is a passive/inert tracer• Simulation : synoptic hindcast from June 01,

2003 - August 31, 2005• ICs and BCs : DO saturation from T and S [Weiss

(1970)]; no river DO sources• Computational Efficiency : 6-day sim./hour [MPI,

IBM Power 6 cluster , 96 proc.]

Const. resp. rate of 0.55 gO2/m3/day

Fixed at saturation (surface also)

Strategy – begin with simplest WQ model and then build up to complex models

O ffi c e o f C o a s t S u r v e y / C o a s t S u r v e y D e v e l o p m e n t L a b

• Total DO content (kg) diminishes during the summer months as expected• Hypoxic volumes show agreement with those derived from CBP

observations*• Hypoxic zones present in deep, narrow channels during summer months*Courtesy of Malcolm Scully/ODU and Rebecca Murphy/JHU

DO ≤ 2 mg/L at 1m above botm.

DO ≤ 2 mg/L

DO ≤ 1 mg/L

DO ≤ 0.2 mg/L

IOOS SURA Testbed Estuarine Hypoxia TeamPreliminary Results

O ffi c e o f C o a s t S u r v e y / C o a s t S u r v e y D e v e l o p m e n t L a b

NOS Work Plans

Import ChesROMS biological module (based on Fennel’s) into CBOSF2 Compare DO predictions (and others if

available) from various models (e.g. Scully’s 1-term, Fennel’s and ICM) Transition to operational ecological forecasting?

IOOS SURA Testbed Estuarine Hypoxia Team

O ffi c e o f C o a s t S u r v e y / C o a s t S u r v e y D e v e l o p m e n t L a b

NOS Work Plan Evaluate the embedded biological models in FVCOM Import Fennel’s model and its set-up for GOM into FVCOM Model comparisons of various biological configuration and ROMS vs FVCOM Transition to operational ecological forecasting?

IOOS SURA Testbed Shelf Hypoxia Team

O ffi c e o f C o a s t S u r v e y / C o a s t S u r v e y D e v e l o p m e n t L a b

Summary and Conclusions

• The IOOS SURA Testbed supports previous/ongoing efforts to evaluate new modeling approaches and metrics.

• The IOOS SURA Shelf Testbed is consistent with a transition from Port based Operational Forecast System to a Regional Approach by expanding effort of testing and validation of competing basin/shelf nesting approaches.

• The IOOS SURA Testbed accelerated efforts to evaluate various approaches to address ecological issues, i.e., Hypoxia