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CLIMATE ALERTS AND PROBABLE IMPACTS FOR THE PERIOD 21st to 30th OCTOBER, 2019

This ten-day alert bulletin n°24 reveals the climatic conditions and climate forecasts developed for the five Agro-ecological zones

for the period October 21 to 30, 2019. It also highlights the potential risks and impacts, observable in certain socio-economic sectors

in the five agro-ecological zones of Cameroon. This period is characterized by the migration of the Inter Tropical Front (ITF) to the

northern part of Lake Chad and the El-Niño episodes in the Pacific, leading to climate disruptions in the zone, from West Africa to

Central Africa including Cameroon.

II. CLIMATIC HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE PERIOD 21st to 30th OCTOBER, 2019

OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES / NATIONAL OBSERVATORY ON CLIMATE CHANGE

www.onacc.cm; Tel (237) 693 370 504

ONACC-NOCC

ONACC

Dekadal Bulletin from 21st to 30th October 2019

Bulletin no 24

I. INTRODUCTION

II.1. For Temperatures

We expect:

- an overall increase from 0°C to 0.2°C in the average maximum temperatures compared to the historical average recorded for the same period from 1950

to 2015 and from 0.6 to 0.9°C compared to that registered during the previous dekad from October 11 to 20, 2019 in the following localities;

- Maroua, Mindif, Kaele, Bogo, Yagoua and Mokolo in the Extreme North region;

- Garoua, Lagdo, Rey Bouba, Tchollire and Pitoa in the North region;

- Akonolinga, Mbalmayo, Nanga Eboko, Bafia, Mbandjock, Nkoten, Yaounde and Obala in the Centre region;

- Abong Mbang, Bertoua, Mindourou, Batouri, Belabo, Betare Oya and Yokadouma in the East region;

- Bafang, Bafoussam, Tonga, Foumban, Bangangte, Dschang and Foumbot in the West region;

- Kribi, Akom II, Djoum and Zoetele in the South region;

- Mundemba, Bamusso, Mutengene, Buea, Kumba, Idenao, Fontem Muyuka in the South West region;

- Mbanga, Yabassi, Douala, Penja, Loum, Manjo, Dizangue Edea, Mouanko in the Littoral region.

- an overall increase from 0.2°C to 0.5°C in average minimum temperatures compared to the historical average recorded for the same period from 1950

to 2015, and a decrease from 1 to 1.2°C compared to the average recorded during the dekad from October 11 to 20, 2019 in the following localities;

- Bogo, Kaele Maroua, Mindif and Yagoua, Mora and Mokolo in the Extreme North region;

- Garoua, Tchollire and Pitoa, Guider, Lagdo and Rey Bouba in the North region;

- Meiganga and Ngaoundere, Banyo and Tibati in the Adamawa region;

- Garoua Boulai in the East region;

- Lolodorf in the South region;

- Kumbo and Fundong in the North West region;

- Kumba and Fontem in the South West region;

- Bazou, Bafang, Bafoussam, Dschang and Mbounda in the West region.

- an increase in daily thermal differences in the localities of;

- Bogo, Kaele Maroua, Mindif, Yagoua, Mora and Mokolo in the Extreme North region;

- Garoua, Tchollire and Pitoa, Guider, Lagdo and Rey Bouba in the North region;

- Meiganga and Ngaoundere, Banyo and Tibati in the Adamawa region;

- Garoua Boulai in the East region;

- Lolodorf in the South region;

- Kumbo and Fundong in the North West region;

- Kumba and Fontem in the South West region;

- Bazou, Bafang, Bafoussam, Dschang and Mbounda in the West region..

II.2. For Precipitations

We expect:

- rainfall amounts more than what was registered in the dekad from the 11th to 20th October, 2019 in the localities of Nkoteng, Ngoro, Bafia, Mbandjock

and Nanga Eboko in the Centre region,;

- rainfall amounts more than what was registered in the dekad from the 11th to 20th October, 2019 in the localities of Belabo, Bertoua, Libongo, Betare

Oya, and Mambele in the East region;

DIRECTION GENERALE-DIRECTORATE GENERAL

Supervision

Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change

(ONACC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon.

Ing. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change

(ONACC).

ProductionTeam (ONACC) Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director of the National Observatory on Climate

Change (ONACC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I,

Cameroon.

Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change

(ONACC).

BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, PhD student, Climatology/Biogeography, University of Yaounde

I, Cameroon.

ZOUH TEM Isabella, MSc in GIS-Environment.

NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental,Management.

MEYONG René Ramsès, M.Sc. in Climatology/Biogeography.

NB: It should be noted that this forecast is

developed using spatial data from:

- the International Institute for Climate and

Society (IRI) of Columbia University;

- the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration (NOAA);

- AccuWeather (American Institution

specialized in meteorological forecasts);

- the African Centre for Applied

Meteorology for Development (ACMAD).

- Spatial data for Atlantic Ocean Surface

Temperature (OST) as well as the intensity of

the El-Niño episodes in the Pacific.

- ONACC’s research works.

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III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 21st to 30th

October, 2019

1) For precipitations

We expect:

a) In the Sudano-sahelian zone

- Precipitation amounts less than the volume recorded

from 11th to 20th October 2019, in Maga. However rainfall

amounts would be around the mean in the localities of

Makary, Kousseri, Waza, Mora, Bogo, Mokolo, Maroua

Waza and Yagoua in the Far North region.

- Rainfall amounts around the mean that was recorded

from 11th to 20th October 2019 in the localities of Dembo,

Guider, Touboro, Pitoa, Lagdo and Rey Bouba in the

North region;

b) In the Guinean high savannah zone

Rainfall amounts lower than what was recorded from 11th

to 20th October 2019 in the localities of Mbe, Ngaoundere

and Mbakaou, around the mean in Tignere, Banyo,

Meiganga, Tibati, Kongolo, NGaou Mbol and Kognoli in

the Adamawa region.

c) In the bimodal rainfall forest zone

- Rainfall amounts higher than the volume recorded from

11th to 20th October 2019 in Yoko, Ngoro and Nanga and

lower than the mean in the locality of Akonolinga and

around the mean in the locality of Yaounde, Nkoteng,

Obala, Mbalmayo and Eseka in the Centre region;

- Rainfall amounts higher than the volume recorded from

11th to 20th October 2019 in Bertoua, Belabo, Batouri,

Libongo, Mambele and Betare Oya and lower than the

mean in Yokadouma and aroun the mean in Lomie,

Mouloundou and Kika in the East region.

- Rainfall amounts higher than the volume recorded from

11th to 20th October 2019 in Ebolowa, Nyabessan and

Akom II, Sangmelima, Djoum and around the mean in

Lolodorf and Zoetele in the South region.

N.B: Overall, rainfall amounts will be above average in

the localities of;

- Yoko, Ngoro, Bafia, Mandjock, Nkoteng, Nanga Eboko

in the Centre region;

- Bertoua, Belabo, Batouri, Mbitom, Betaré Oya, Garoua

Boulai and Ngoila in the East region;

- Ebolowa, Nyabessan and Akom II, Sangmélima, Djoum

in the South Region

Figure 1: Distribution of rainfall amounts from October 21 to 30, 2019

compared to that of the previous dekad from October 1 to 10, 2019

Source : ONACC, October 2019

d) In the high plateau zone

- Precipitation amounts lower than what was recorded

from 11th to 20th October 2019 in Makoupa, Foumban,

Mbouda, Foumbot, Dschang, Bazou and Tonga in the

West region.

- Precipitation amounts lower than what was recorded

from 11th to 20th October 2019 in Munkep, Esu,

Bamenda, Benakuma, Wum, Bali, Bambalang and

Fundong in the North West region.

e) In the monomodal rainfall forest zone

- Precipitation amounts lower than the volume recorded

from 11th to 20th October 2019 in Melong and aroiund the

mean in Douala, Yabassi, Ndokoti, Ndokama, Dizangue,

Edea, Mouanko, Ndogtima, Manjo, Loum, Penja,

Mbanga and Nkongsamba in the Littoral region;

- Precipitation amounts around the mean volume

recorded from 11th to 20th October 2019 in Mundemba,

Bamuso, Idenau and Muyuka and lower than the mean in

Mamfe, Ekok, Eyumodjock, Ekang and Kumbo in the

South West region.

NB: Overall, particular attention should be paid to the localities of Yoko, Ngoro and Nanga Eboko for the Centre region; the localities of Bertoua,

Belabo, Batouri, Libongo, Mambélé and Betaré Oya in the East region. These localities are at high risk of experiencing flooding for the current

decade. It is also worth noting that this period corresponds to;

- the beginning of the dry season in the Far North region;

- the progress towards the end of the rainy season in the North region;

- an extension of the rainy season in the Adamawa, West, North West, South West and Littoral regions;

- an extension of the long rainy season in the Centre, South and East regions;

- the displacement of the Monsoon winds carrying ran from the Southwest to the northern part of the country, which began in March 2019, as well

as the migration of the Inertropical Front (ITF) to the Ssouth of Lake Chand.

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a) For Maximum Temperatures

2) 2) For Temperatures

Based on the difference between the historical average maximum temperatures registered

for the same period from 1950 to 2015 and the average maximum temperatures forecast

for the dekad from October 21 to 30. 2019 there is a high probability of recording an

increase in the average maximum temperatures in: - Maroua and Mindif (from 0.3 to 0.6°C), Mara (from 3.8 to 4.8°C). Kaele, Bogo. Yagoua

and Mokolo (from 1.2 to 1.8°C) in the Extreme North region;

- Dembo, Poli, Garoua, Lagdo, Rey Bouba, Tchollire and Pitoa (from 0.1 to 0.6°C) in the

North region;

- Akonolinga, Mbalmayo, Nanga, Eboko. Bafia, Mbandjock, Nkoteng (from 1.6 to 2°C) and

Yaounde and Obala (from 0.5 to 0.8°C). in the region Centre ;

- Abong Mbang, Bertoua and Mindourou (from 0.3 to 0.8°C). Batouri, Belabo and Betare

Oya (from 1.7 to 2°C) and Yokadouma (from 2.9 to 3.2°C) in the East region;

- Bafang, Bafoussam, Tonga and Foumban (from 1.3 to 2°C) and Bangangte, Dschang and

Foumbot (from 0.4 to 1°C) in the West region;

- Kribi, Akom II, Djoum and Zoetele (from 0.5 to 0.9°C). in the South region;

- Mundemba, Bamusso, Mutengene, Buea, Kumba, Babong. (from 0 to 0.8°C). Idenao,

Fontem and Muyuka (from 1 to 2.2°C). in the South West region;

- Mbanga, Yabassi, Douala and Penja (from 2.2 to 3°C), Loum and Manjo (from 4.5 to

5.9°C) Dizangue, Edea and Mouanko (from 0.2 to 0.6°C) in the Littoral region.

Based on the difference between the average maximum temperatures recorded to the

dekad from 11th to 20th October. 2019 and the average maximum temperatures forecast for

the dekad from 11th to 20th October 2019. there is a high probability of recording an

increase in the average maximum temperatures in:

- Maroua, Kousseri, Waza, Maga, Bogo, Mindif, Kaele and Gamboura (from 2 to 2.5°C),

Mora and Mokolo (from 1.9 to 2.1°C) in the Extreme North region;

- Pitoa, Garoua, Guider, Pitoa, Rey Bouba, Tchollire and Lagdo (from 2 to 2.8°C) in the

North region;

- Tigner, Ngaounder, Ngaou Mbol, Kongoli, Meiganga and Mbe (from 1.1 to 2.8°C). Banyo,

Tibati and Mbakaou (from 0.8 to 1°C) in the Adamawa region;

- Batouri, Belabo, Betare Oya, Garoua Boulai and Yokadouma (from 1.2 to 1.5°C). Abong

Mbang, Mindourou and Bertoua (from 0.3 to 0.8°C) in the East region;

- Akonolinga, Bafia, Eseka, Mbalmayo, Nkoteng, Obala, Mbandjok and Yaounde (from 0.4

to 0.8°C) in the Centre region;

- Ebolowa, Kribi, Lolodorf, Sangmelima, Akom II, Djoum and Zoetele (from 0.1 to 0.7°C)

in the South region;

- Bali, Bamenda, Fundong, Wum, Benakuna, Esu, Munkep and Nkambe (from 0.1 to 0.6°C)

in the North West region;

- Bafang, Bafoussam, Bangangte, Bazou, Dschang, Foumban, Foumbot and Tonga (from 0.5

to 1.1°C) in the West region;

- Buea, Fontem, Idenao, Kumba, Limbe, Mamfe, Muyuka, Mundemba and Mutengene (from

0 to 0.8°C) in the South West region;

- Dizangue, Douala, Edea, Loum, Manjo, Melong and Nkongsamba (from 0.4 to 0.8°C) in

the Littoral region.

Figure 2: Variations in average maximum temperatures from the historical

average for the same period from 1950-2015 and compared to the dekad from

21st to 30th October 2019. Source : ONACC, October 2019

Figure 3: Variations in average maximum temperatures during the dekad from

11th to 20th October, 2019 compared to the current dekad Source : ONACC, October 2019

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b

Figure 4 : Alert zones for maximum temperatures for the period from 21st to 30th October, 2019

Source : ONACC, Octobre 2019

Alertes pour les températures maximales

Figure 4 shows that during this decade from 21st to 30th

October 2019, particular attention should be paid to

localities that have a very high probability of experiencing

an increase in average maximum temperatures. These

include:

- Mindif and Kaélé in the Far North region;

- Guider, Pitoa, Lagdo, Garoua, Rey Bouba and Tchollire in

the North region;

- Betare Oya, Belabo, Bertoua, Batouri, Abong Mbang,

Mindourou and Yokadouma in the East region;

- Bafia, Nanga Eboko, Nkoteng, Obala, Yaounde,

Mbalmayo and Akonolinga in the Centre region;

- Kribi in the South region;

- Loum, Mbanga, Melong, Manjo, Nkongsamba, Douala,

Edea and Dizangue in the Littoral region;

- Foumban, Foumbot, Bangangte, Bafang and Dschang in

the West region.

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b) For Minimum Temperatures

Figure 4: Variations in average minimum temperatures from historical averages from 1950

to 2015 for the same period. Source : ONACC, October 2019

Based on the difference between the historical average minimum

temperatures and the average minimum temperatures forecast for the

dekad from October 21st to 30th, 2019, there is a high probability of a

decrease in the average minimum temperatures in:

- Bogo and Kaele (from 0.2 to 0.7°C) Maroua, Mindif and Yagoua (from

0.3 to 0.7°C), Mora and Mokolo (from 3.5 to 4.2°C)in the Extreme North

region;

- Garoua, Tchollire and Pitoa (from 1 to 1.2°C), Guider, Lagdo and Rey

bouba (from 0.5 to 0.8°C),in the North region;

- Meiganga and Ngaoundere (from 5.5 to 6.3°C), Banyo and Tibati (from

0.5 to 1.7°C), in the Adamawa region;

- Garoua Boulai (from 4.4 to 5°C) in the East region;

- Lolodorf (from 2.9 to 3.3°C) in the South region;

- Kumbo and Fundong (from 1,2 to 1,6°C) in the North West region ;

- Kumba (from 0.9 to 1.1°C) and Fontem (from 0.3 to 0.6°C)in the South

West region;

- Bazou, Bafang, Bafoussam, Dschang and Mbounda (from 0.4 to 1.7°C)

in the West region.

Based on the difference between the average minimum temperatures

record in the dekad from 1st to 10th October, 2019 and the average

minimum temperatures expected for the dekad from 21st to 30th October,

2019, there is a high probability of a decrease in the average minimum

temperatures in:

- Bogo, Kaele, (from 0.2 to 0.7°C) Maroua, Mindif, Yagoua (from 1 to

1.7°C) and Mora (from 3.4 to 4.1°C),in the Extreme North region;

- Guider, Lagdo and Rey Bouba (from 0.2 to 0.7°C), Garoua, Pitoa and

Tchollire (from 1 to 1.2°C),in the North region;

- Banyo, Meiganga, Ngaoundere and Tibati (from 1.3 to 1.8°C)in the

Adamawa region;

- Abong-Mbang (from 0.2 to 0.6°C), Batouri, Belabo, Bertoua, Betare

Oya, Garoua Boulai, Mindourou and Yokadouma (from 1 to 1.7°C)in the

East region;

- Akonolinga Bafia, Eseka, Mbalmayo, Nkoteng, Obala and Yaounde

(from 1 to 1.5°C)in the Centre region;

- Ebolowa (from 0.1 to 0.3°C), Kribi, Lolodorf and Sangmelima (from 1.1

to 1.5°C),in the South region;

- Bafang, (from 0.5 to 8°C), Bafoussam, Bangangte, Bazou, Dschang,

Foumban, Foumbot, Mbouda and Tonga (from 1.2 to 1.8°C) in the West

region;

- Bali, Benakuna, Bamenda, Fundong, kumbo, wum and Nkambe (from

1.2 to 1.7°C)in the North West region;

NB : a high risk of registering cold nights in these localitites.

Figure 5: Variations in average minimum temperatures for the current dekad compared to

the dekad from 21st to 30th October, 2019. Source : ONACC, October 2019

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Figure 6: Alert zones for minimum temperatures for the period from 21st to

30th October, 2019.

Source : ONACC, October 2019

Alerts for minimum temperatures

Figure 7 shows that during this decade from 21st to 30th

October 2019, particular attention should be paid to

localities that are very likely to experience a decrease

in average minimum temperatures. These include;

- Mora, Mokolo, and Maroua in the Far North region;

- Pitoa and Lagdo in the North region;

- Meiganga in the Adamawa region;

- Garoua Boulai and Betare Oya in the East region;

- Nanga Eboko in the Centre Region;

- Lolodorf and Sangmelima in the South region;

- Fundong and Kumbo in the North West region;

- Dschang, Bafang and Bazou in the West region;

- Fontem and Kumba in the South West region.

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IV. Risks and alerts on socio-economic sectors

a) In the health sector:

A risk of recording cases of:

• Conjunctivitis in various localities in the Far North, North and large

agglomerations in the Adamawa, Centre, South, East, Littoral, North

West and South West regions;

• Respiratory diseases (flu, cough, bronchitis, colds, asthma, etc.) in the

North, Adamawa, North West, Centre, South, East and South West

regions, due to the cold nights during this period;

• Diarrhea, following the contamination of drinking water by polluted

runoff in the Littoral, Centre, South, South West, North West and West

regions;

• Amoebic dysentery and typhoid in the North, Adamawa, Centre,

South, East, Littoral, South West, North-West and West regions,

following the contamination of drinking water by polluted runoff;

• Malaria in many localities in the North, Adamawa, Centre, East, South,

Littoral, South West, North West and West regions due to the presence of

puddles of stagnant water which attracts mosquitoes.

b) In the public works sector:

- risk of infrastructure degradation (buildings, bridges, pavements,

etc.) in the Centre, South, East, Littoral, South West, North West and

West regions due to continuous rains;

- high risk of pavement degradation due to heavy rains and floods in

major cities in the Adamawa, Centre, South, East, Littoral, South West,

North West and West regions.

- risk of destruction of bridges and culverts in the Centre, East,

South, Littoral, South West, North West and West regions. c) In the livestock sector:

- risk of death of animals by drowning due to heavy rains in the Far

North, North, Adamawa, Littoral, South West, North West and West

regions.

- risk of development of pests cattle, small ruminants and poultry in

the Centre, South, East, Littoral, South-West, North-West and West

regions due to the persistent cold in this period;

- risk of recording cases of poultry loss due to the cold weather during

this period in Adamawa, Centre, South, East, South West, North

West, West and Littoral regions.

d) In the agricultural sector:

- high risk of disruption in the drying process of harvested cocoa during this

period in the Centre, South, East and South West with a resulting degradation

in the quality of cocoa grains;

-risk of germination of bad weeds in newly cultivated farmlands in the Centre,

South, East, Adamawa, Littoral, North West and South west regions;

- cases of crop field degradation due to soil erosion in the Centre, South and

East regions.

e) In the water and energy sector:

- high risk of pollution and degradation of water quality in water

catchment sites in the Centre, South, East, Littoral, South West, North West

and West regions due to the presence of biological, chemical and physical

contaminants in runoff introduced therein;

- high risk of destruction of some electricity transmission and substation

infrastructure in the South West, North West due to heavy rains with

lightning and strong winds ;

f) In the urban development sector:

- high risk of landslides and/or mudslides due to waterlogging in the West,

Centre, North West, South West and Littoral regions, as well as on the hillsides

of the major urban areas of these regions;

- high risk of floods in large urban areas and centres due to impermeability,

soil saturation and immediate water scouring in the Centre, South, East,

Littoral, South West and North West regions.

g) In the tourism sector:

- high risk of disruption of tourist activities in natural sites in the Far North,

North, Adamawa, Centre, South, East, Littoral, South West, North West

and West regions as a result of heavy rains. h) In the environment sector:

- risk of floods occurring in the main coastal areas following heavy rains;

- risk of flooding in swampy areas in the West, South West, North West,

Centre, South, East, Littoral and South West regions due to soil congestion

and resurgence of the water table;

- risk of landslides and/or mudslides in high-risk areas due to heavy

rainfall and erosion in the Centre, South, North West, West, Littoral and

South West regions leading to the degradation and/or destruction of

landscape and biodiversity.

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a) In the health sector

It is recommended that we:

- wash food items, and cook them well before consumption;

- strictly apply the basic rules of hygiene and sanitation (wash food items, filter drinking water before consumption in households,

use latrines, etc.);

- avoid the accumulation of household waste in the vicinity of dwellings;

- dress warmly and put on sleeping gear for protection from the cold nights during this period;

- channel standing water;

- ensure regular maintenance of drainage channels;

- fight against insalubrious conditions;

- sleep under a mosquito net.

b) In the livestock sector

- Keep animals in pens.

c) In the agricultural sector

- Plan drying process following the orientations set out in the agricultural calendar done by ONACC for the period from 21st to

30th October, 2019.

d) In the water and energy sector

- Protect drinking water catchment sites;

V. Some recommendations

For more information, contact:

P.O. Box 35414

House no 1220, Street no 1793, Bastos, Yaounde,

Cameroon

Tel. + (237) 222-209-504/222-209-500

E-mail: onacc2009@yahoo.com or onacc@gmail.com