Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
BULLETIN N° 39
Dekadal climate alerts and probable impacts for the period
21st to 30th March, 2020
REPUBLIQUE DU CAMEROUN
Paix-Travail-Patrie
-----------
OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR
LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES
-----------------
DIRECTION GENERALE -----------------
REPUBLIC OF CAMEROON
Peace-Work-Fatherland
-----------
NATIONAL OBSERVATORY
ON CLIMATE CHANGE
-----------------
DIRECTORATE GENERAL -----------------
ONACC
www.onacc.cm; [email protected]; Tel : (+237) 693 370 504 / 654 392 529
March 2020
© ONACC March 2020, all rights reserved
II. FORECAST SUMMARY
Supervision
Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC).
Production Team (ONACC)
Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC). BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, PhD student and Technical staff, ONACC. ZOUH TEM Isabella, MSc in GIS-Environment. NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. MEYONG René Ramsès, M.Sc. in Physical Geography (Climatology/Biogeography).
ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, ONACC
ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. Business and Environmental law.
I. Introduction
These forecasts are done through the exploitation of spatial data collected from major international centres involved in day-to-day
climate science, notably: the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of the University of Columbia (USA); the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA); AccuWeather (American Weather Forecasting Agency, USA); the
African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD); Spatial data from 1979 to 2018, relating to Ocean
Surface Temperature (OST) in the Atlantic and Pacific, El-Niño/La Nina episode intensities in the Pacific, rainfall and temperature
from local stations. To this end, ONACC would like to express its gratitude to all these international Institutions for the good will
demonstrated in the sharing of the data.
This dekadal climate early warning bulletin n°39 highlights the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018, as well as the
climatic forecasts for all the five Agro ecological zones of Cameroon, for the period from 21st to 30th March, 2020. This early warning
brief further underscores the risks, threats and potential impacts expected in the socio-economic development sectors of Cameroon. It also makes an assessment of the forecasts developed for the dekad from 11th to 20th March, 2020. This dekad from 21st to 30th March,
2020 will be characterized by the progressive set in of the monsoon from the South Atlantic Ocean in a South-West-North-East
direction. In Cameroon, this monsoon will settle in the coastal zone (Littoral and South West regions), in the South, Centre and East
regions. This progression will be marked by the displacement of the Inter Tropical Front (ITF) which is currently in the southern part,
to the northern part of the country. Despite the gradual start of the rainy season in the high plateaux zone, the forest zone with
monomodal rainfall and the short rainy season in the bimodal rainfall forest zone, we note a high probability during this dekad and
throughout the national territory, of observing an increase in maximum temperatures, with a risk of heat waves.
II.1. For Temperatures
The following locations have a high probability of experiencing a large increase in mean maximum temperatures compared to
historical averages. They include:
- Tibati, Ngaoundere and Banyo in the Adamawa region;
- Monatele, Ngoro, Nkoteng, Yoko and Obala in the Centre region;
- Belabo, Betare Oya, Bertoua, Batouri and Abong-Mbang in the East region;
- Nyabizan in the South region;
- Makam and Bazou in the West region;
- Nwa in the North West region; NB: 1) During this period, we note a high risk of observing heat waves characterised by temperatures above 30°C for several successive
days in the Sudano-sahelian zone (Far North and North regions; in the Guinean high savannah (Adamawa region); the east-north-east
part of the Centre region and the northern part of the East region.
2) There is a high probability of recording an increase in the number of days with maximum temperatures of 35-40°C in the Far North
and North Regions; above 30°C in the Adamawa region and the northern part of the East region, Centre and South regions.
3) We also note a high probability of registering large differences in thermal variations over the national territory.
The following locations have a high probability of experiencing a large decrease in mean minimum temperatures compared to
historical averages. They include:
- Touboro in the North region;
- Ngoyla in the East region;
- Tignere and Meiganga in the Adamawa region;
- Obala in the Centre region;
- Ambam and Nyabizan in the South region;
- Dschang, Mbouda, Batcham, Bazou and Bafang in the West region;
- Nkambe, Fundong, Santa, Kumbo, Ndop, Widikum and Benakuma in the North West region.
- Nguti, Kumba, Mundemba and Limbe in the South West region. NB: The current dekad from 21st to 30th March, 2020 shows high probability of recording low minimum temperatures compared to the
historic mean registered for the same period from 1979 to 2018 in the Far North and Littoral. These could also lead to cold nights. A high probability of recording an increase in daily thermal differences higher than 5.5°C in the localities of Obala in the Centre region,
Nyabizan in the South region and Bazou in the West region.
III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 21st to 30th March, 2020
II.1. For Precipitation
A high probability of registering sporadic and localized rains may be observed in the following localities;
- Yoko in the Centre region; - Batouri, Betare Oya, Belabo, Mbitom, Lomie, Yokadouma and Abong Mbang in the East region;
A high probability of registering precipitation quantities in excess compared to the volume recorded in the dekad from March 11th to
20th 2020 in the localities of;
- Bertoua, Ngoyla and Mindourou in the East region;
- Eseka, Mbalmayo, Yaounde, Obala, Nkoteng, Monatele, Bafia and Ngoro in the Centre region; - Nyabizan, Kribi, Akom II, Ambam Ebolowa and Campo in the South region;
- Kumbo, Nkambe, Fundong, Widikum, Santa, Ndop and Benakuna in the North West region; - Buea, Limbe, Mamfe, Mundemba, Kumba, Eyoumedjock, Fontem, Bamuso and Tiko in the South West region;
- Nkongsamba, Manjo, Loum, Penja, Ndokiti, Edea, Mouanko, Dizangue, Melong, Mbanga, Douala and Yabassi in the Littoral region.
1) For precipitations
We expect:
a) In the Sudano-sahelian zone
- A high probability of recording no rainfall in the North and Far North regions;
b) In the Guinean high savannah zone
- A high probability of recording sporadic and localized
rainfall in Banyo, Tibati and Meiganga in the
Adamawa region.
c) In the bimodal rainfall forest zone
A high probability of recording;
- sporadic and localised rainfall in the locality of Ngoro;
precipitation quantities higher than those recorded in the
dekad from 11th to 20th March, 2020 at Eseka, Bafia,
Yaounde, Obala, Monatele and Mbalmayo in the
Centre region; - sporadic and localised rainfall in the localities of
Mintom II, Yokadouma, Abong-Mbang, Batouri,
Beroua and Belabo; precipitation quantities higher than
those recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th March,
2020 in Ngoyla, and Mouloundou in the East region;
- precipitation quantities higher than those recorded in
the dekad from 11th to 20th March, 2020 in Ambam,
Campo, Kribi, Lolodorf, Ebolowa, Sangmelima, Djoum,
Akom II and Nyabizan in the South region.
NB: 1) The dekad of 21st to 30th March, 2020 presents
a high probability of heavy rainfall in Ezeka and
Mbalmayo in the Centre region; Nyabizan, Ambam,
Lolodorf, Ebolowa, Sangmelima, Akom II, Zoetele,
Djoum and Campo in the South region; Bafoussam,
Bazou, Dschang and Mbouda in the West region;
Benakuma, Bali, Ndop, Santa, Wum, Kumbo and
Fundong in the North West region; Eyumodjock,
Mamfe, Fontem, Nguti, Mundemba and Kumba in the
South West region; Melong, Penja, Loum and
Mbanga in the Littoral region.
(2) There is also high probability of observing
thunderstorms in various localities in the bimodal
rainfall forest zone. d) In the high plateaux zone
A high probability of recording
- precipitation quantities in excess of the volume
recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th March 2020 in
the localities of Bali, Bamenda and Santa, Benankuma,
Fundong and Wum in the North West region;
- precipitation quantities in excess of the volume
recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th March 2020 in
the localities of Bafoussam, Bamendjing, Bafang,
Dschang Bazou Bangangte, Foumbot, Foumban,
Mbouda and Tonga in in the West region.
Figure 1: Variation in precipitation quantities for the current dekad compared
to those registered in the dekad friom the 21st to 30th March, 2020
Source: ONACC, March 2020
NB : This dekad of 21st to 30th March 2020 corresponds to
1) the extension of the dry season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Far North and
North regions), Guinean High Savannah zone (Adamawa region),
2) the beginning of the rainy season in the High Plateaux zone (West and North
West regions), 3) the progressive setting in of the rainy season in the Forest zone with
Monomodal rainfall (Littoral and South-West regions);
2) the progressive setting in of the short rainy season in the Forest zone with
Bimodal rainfall (Centre, South and East regions).
e) In the mono-modal rainfall forest zone
A high probability of recording
- precipitation in excess compared to the volume registered in the dekad from
the 11th to 20th March 2020 in the localities of Tiko, Eyumojock, Mundemba,
Buea, Idenau, Mamfe, Limbe, Mutengene and Kumba in the South West
region.
- precipitation quantities in excess compared to the volume registered in the last
dekad from 11th to 20th March 2020 in the localities of Nkongsamba, Manjo,
Loum, Penja, Ndokoti, Edea, Mouanko, Dizangue, Melong, Mbanga, Douala
and Yabassi in the Littoral region.
NB: 1) This period will also be marked by the setting in of the monsoon
wings in the south-west-north-east direction, which brings humidity from
the southern part, towards the Centre, West and East, and by the presence
of the Inter Tropical Front (ITF) in the southern part of the country.
2) This dekad corresponds to the planting season in the rainfed band
covering the South, Centre, West, North-West, South-West, Littoral and the
southern part of the East region.
a) For Maximum Temperatures
Based on the historical maximum temperatures averages recorded from 1979 to 2018, that is 39.75°C in the Far North region, 40°C in the North region, 32.8°C in the Adamawa region, 29.81°C
in the Centre, 30.12°C in the South region, 31.52 in the East regions, 27.77°C in West, 27.5 in the North West, 29.1°C in the South West region, 28.5°C in the In the Littoral region, there is a
high probability of recording;
- average maximum temperatures around the historical average recorded from 1979 to
2018 in Kousseri; Bogo, Yagoua, Mora, Maroua, Maga, Kaele, and Waza; below the
historical average in Mindif and Mokolo in the Far North region;
- average maximum temperatures below the historical average recorded from 1979 to
2018 at Touboro and Poli and around the historical average in Dembo, Lagdo, Pitoa,
Guider, Rey Bouba and Tchollire in the North region;
- average maximum temperatures above the historical average recorded from 1979 to
2018 in Banyo, Tibati and Ngaoundere; below the historical average at Mbakaou,
Tignere and Meiganga in the Adamawa region;
- average maximum temperatures above the historical average recorded from 1979 to
2018 in Monatele, Ngoro, Nkoteng, Yoko and Obala, and below the historical average in
Akonolinga, Bafia, Eseka, Yaounde, Nanga Eboko, Mbandjock and Mbalmayo in the
Centre region;
- average maximum temperatures below the historical average recorded from 1979 to
2018 in Ngoyla and Mouloundou; around the historical average at Yokadouma,
Mindourou and Lomie; above the historical average at Belabo, Bertoua, Batouri, Betare
Oya and Abong-Mbang in the East region;
2) For Temperatures
- average maximum temperatures around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Wum,
Kumbo and Bali; Below the historical average at Benakuma and above the historical average at Nwa in
the North West region;
- average maximum temperatures above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Makam
and Bazou and around the historical average in Foumbot, Foumban, Tonga, Bafoussam, Mbouda,
Bafang, and Bangangte in the West region;
- average maximum temperatures above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 at Nyabizan
and around the historical average at Campo, Lolodorf, Zoetele, Akom II Sangmelima, Ambam, Djoum
and Kribi in the South region;
- average maximum temperatures around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mamfe, Nguti, Tiko, Buea, Idenau, Eyumojock, Muyuka, Bamusso, Limbe, Fontem, Mundemba and Kumba in
the South West region;
- average maximum temperatures around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in, Melong,
Dizangue, Penja, Yabassi, Mbanga, Nkongsanba, Douala, Loum, Manjo, Mouanko and Edea in the
Littoral region.
NB: During this period, we note a very high risk of observing heat waves characterised by temperatures above
30°C for several successive days over the national territory, and particularly in the Far North, North, Centre,
South and East regions.
Figure 2: Variations in average maximum temperatures for the
current dekad (a) compared to those registered for the same
period from 1979 to 2018; (b) and expected anomalies for the
current dekad (c). (Source: ONACC, March2020)
a b
c
Based on the difference between the average maximum temperatures recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th March, 2020 and the average maximum temperatures forecast for
the dekad from 21st to 30th March 2020, there is a high probability of registering:
- mean maximum temperatures around those recorded from 11th to 20th March, 2020 in Kousseri;
Mindif, Kaele, Maroua, Mora, Waza, Bogo, Maga and Yagoua; below the mean at Mindif and
Mokolo in the Far North region;
- mean maximum temperatures around those recorded from 11th to 20th March, 2020 in Touboro,
Tchollire, Rey Bouba, Poli, Dembo, Garoua, Guider and Lagdo in the North region;
- mean maximum temperatures above those recorded from 11th to 20th March, 2020 in Tibati,
Banyo, Mbakaou, Meiganga, and Ngaoundere and around those recorded from 11th to 20th
March, 2020 in Tignere in the Adamawa region;
- mean maximum temperatures around those recorded from 11th to 20th March, 2020 in
Moloundou, Abong-Mbang, Ngoyla, Lomie, Mindourou, Yokadouma, Bertoua, Belabo, Batouri
and Betare Oya in the East region;
- average maximum temperatures around those recorded from 11th to 20th March 2020 in
Yaounde, Nkoteng and Obala, Mbalmayo, Akonolinga, Eseka, Monatele, Bafia, Ngoro, Yoko
and Nanga Eboko, in the Centre region;
- average maximum temperatures above those recorded from 11th to 20th March 2020 in Nyabissan;
around those recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th March 2020 in Kribi, Ambam Campo, Akom II,
Ebolowa, Zoetele; Lolodorf, Sangmelima and Djoum in the South region;
- mean maximum temperatures around those recorded from 11th to 20th March 2020 in Mamfe, Buea,
Tiko, Nguti, Mundemba, Fontem, Limbe, Idenau, Kumba, Muyuka, and Eyumojock in the South West
region;
- average maximum temperatures below the average recorded from 11th to 20th March 2020 in Yabassi;
around the mean in Edea, Mouanko Melong, Dizangue, Penja, Mbanga, Nkongsanba, Douala, Loum
and Manjo in the Littoral region.
- mean maximum temperatures around the average recorded from 11th to 20th March 2020 in Bali
Kumbo, Santa and Bamenda and below those recorded in Benakuma and Wum,in the North West
region;
- mean maximum temperatures around the average recorded from 11th to 20th March 2020 in Bazou
and below the average recorded from 11th to 20th March 2020 in Foumbot, Bafang, Bangangte,
Dschang, Foumban, Bafoussam and Tonga and below the mean recorded in Bazou and Mbouda in the
West region.
Figure 3: Variations in average maximum
temperatures forecast for current dekad (b)
compared to the dekad from 11th to 20th
March 2020, (a) expected anomalies for the
period from 21st to 30th March 2020(c). Source: ONACC, March 2020
(a) (b) (c)
Alerts for maximum temperatures
During this dekad from 21st to 30th March 2020, particular attention should be paid to
localities that have a very high probability of experiencing an increase in average maximum
temperatures compared to their historic means for the same period from 1979 to 2018. These
include:
- Tibati, Ngaoundere and Banyo in the Adamawa region;
- Monatele, Ngoro, Nkoteng, Yoko and Obala in the Centre region;
- Belabo, Bertoua, Batouri, Abong-Mbang and Betare Oya in the East region;
- Nyabizan in the South region;
- Makam and Bazou in the West region;
- Nwa in the North West region;
a) For Minimum Temperatures Based on the historical average minimum temperatures registered for the same period from 1979 to 2018, that is 24.5°C in the Far North region, 26.7°C in the North region, 22.8°C in the
Adamawa region, 18.8°C in the Centre region, 21.2°C in the South region, 19.3°C in the East region, 17.5°C in the West, 17.7 in the North West regions; 21.9°C in the South West region, 21°C
in the Littoral region, there is a high probability of registering:
- average minimum temperatures below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mora, Waza, Bogo and Mokolo; around the historical average for the same period in Kaele,
Mindif, Maroua, Kousseri, Yagoua and Maga in the Far North region; - average minimum temperatures below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Poli,
Tchollire, Rey Bouba, Mandingrin and Touboro; around the historical average in Dembo, Garoua and Pitoa in the North region;
- average minimum temperatures below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Ngaoundere, Tibati, Tignere, Mbakaou and Meiganga; and around the historical average in Banyo
in the Adamawa region; - average minimum temperatures below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in
Betare Oya; and above the historical average in Lomie, Abong-Mbang, Belabo, Bertoua, Yokadouma, Batouri, Moloundou, Ngoyla and Mindourou; and around the historic mean in
Ngoyla in the East Region; - average minimum temperatures above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in
Kribi; and around the historical average in Nyabizan, Campo, Sangmelima, Zoetele,, Lolodorf, Ebolowa, Akom II and Djoum in the South region;
- average minimum temperatures around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Obala,
Yaounde, Monatele, Mbalmayo and Nkoteng; above the historical mean in Ngoro, Eseka, Yoko and
Bafia in the Centre Region;
- average minimum temperatures around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Tonga,
Bazou, Bangangte, Bafang, Foumban, Bamendjing, Bafoussam and Dschang, in the West Region;
- average minimum temperatures around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Bali,
Fundong, Bamenda, Kumbo, Santa and Wum; below the historic mean in Benakuma in the North-
West Region;
- minimum temperatures above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Idenau Tiko,
Kumba, Buea, Limbe and Muyuka; around the historical mean in Eyumodock, Mamfe, Mundemba
and Bamusso, in the South West region.
- -minimum temperatures above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mbanga,
Yabassi, Loum, Douala, Dizangue, Edea, Mouanko, Manjo, Melong, Nkongsamba, and Penja in the
Littoral region.
Figure 4: Variations in average minimum
temperatures for the current dekad (a) compared to
historical averages from 1979 to 2018 for the same
period (b) and expected anomalies for the period from
21st to 30th March, 2020. (c)
Source: ONACC, March 2020
(a) (b) (c)
Based on the difference between the average minimum temperatures recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th March 2020 and the average minimum temperatures
expected for the dekad from 21st to 30th March 2020, there is a high probability of registering:
- average minimum temperatures around those recorded from 11th to 20th March 2020 in Mora, Mokolo and Bogo; above the average in Maroua, Waza, Kaele, Mindif, Maga, Yagoua and
Kousseri in the Far North region;
- average minimum temperatures higher than those recorded from 11th to 20th March 2020 in
Mandingrin, Rey Bouba, Lagdo Garoua, Dembo and Pitoa; around the average in Touboro in the
North region;
- average minimum temperatures around the average recorded from February 11th to 20th March,
2020 in Tignere, Banyo, Ngaoundere, Mbakaou, Tibati and Meiganga, in the Adamawa region;
- average minimum temperatures around the average recorded from 11th to 20th March 2020 in
Eseka, Monatele, Yaounde, Mbalmayo, Obala and Akonoloinga; below the average recorded
from 11th to 20th March 2020 in Yoko and Ngoro in in the Centre region;
- average minimum temperatures above the average recorded from 11th to 20th March 2020 in
Yokadouma, Lomie, Belabo, Abong-Mbang, Bertoua, Mindourou, Betare Oya and Garoua
Boulai and belowthe average in Batouri Ngoyla and Moloundou in the East region. region;
- mean minimum temperatures above the mean recorded from 11th to 20th March 2020 in Mouanko, Mbanga, Yabassi, Dizangue, Melong, Nkongsamba, Penja, Loum, Douala, Manjo and
Edea in the Littoral region;
- average minimum temperatures around the average recorded from 11th to 20th March 2020 in
Kribi, Akom II, Campo, Nyabisan, Ebolowa, Sangmelima, Djoum, Lolodorf and Zoetele in the
South region;
- mean minimum temperatures around the mean recorded from 11th to 20th March 2020 in Tonga,
Bazou, Bangangte, Foumban, Bafang, Bafoussam, Dschang and Bamending in the West region;
- mean minimum temperatures around the mean recorded from 11th to 20th March 2020 in Mamfe,
Tiko, Bamusso, Muyuka, Eyumojock, Mundemba and Idenau in the South-West Region;
- mean minimum temperatures around the average recorded from 11th to 20th March 2020 in Wum,
Benakuma, Fundong, Kumbo, Bali and Bamenda in the North West Region.
NB: During this period we note a high risk of an increase in
cold nights in various localities over the national territory,
except for localities in the Far North and Littoral regions;
Figure 5: Variation in minimum temperatures forecast
for the dekad from 21st to 30th March 2020 b)
Compared to those registered for the dekad from 10th
to 20th March 2020 (a) and expected anomalies for the
period from 21st to 30th March 2020 (c).
Source : ONACC, March2020
Alerts for minimum temperatures
During this dekad from 21st to 30th March, 2020, particular attention should be paid to localities that are very
likely to experience a decrease in average minimum temperatures compared to their historical values for the
same period from 1979 to 2018, which could lead to cold nights. These localities include;
- Touboro in the North region;
- Tignere and Meiganga in the Adamawa region;
- Ngoyla in the East region;
- Obala in the Centre region;
- Ambam and Nyabizan in the South region;
- Dschang, Mbouda, Bafang, Batcham and Bazou in the West region;
- Santa, Bamenda, Kumbo, Fundong; Widikum, Nkambe, Ndop and Benakuma in the North West region.
- Limbe, Mundemba, Nguti and Kumba in the South West region.
IV. Risks and alerts on socio-economic sectors
a) In the agricultural sector:
- An increase in bush fires due to the dryness of the season combined with the effect
of dry winds and high temperatures, resulting in the destruction of plantations, in
the Far North, North and northern part of the Adamawa regions;
- hydric stress, for market gardening and food crops in the Far North, North and the
northern part of the Adamawa regions.
- Increased insect pest attacks on cereals in the Extreme North, North and the
northern part of the Adamawa regions;
NB: This dekad corresponds to the planting season in the rain-fed band covering the
South, Centre, West, North West, South West, Littoral and the southern part of the
East Region.
b) In the health sector:
A risk of recording cases of:
- Diarrhoea, following the scarcity and poor quality of drinking water in the five
Agro-ecological zones; - meningococcal meningitis following the severe drought that is affecting some
localities in the Far North and North regions, coupled with an increased presence of
dust in the air;
- Conjunctivitis due to the effects of a combination of heat and dusty winds in various localities in the Far North and North regions;
- Respiratory diseases (flu, cough, bronchitis, colds, asthma, etc.) in most localities of
the country during this period; - General pathology with systematic disorders in children, people living with
AIDS/HIV or suffering from diabetes, obesity or any pathology requiring medication
acting on thermoregulation in most parts of the country;
c) In the water and energy sector:
- risk of drying up of water supply points as a result of the decrease in the water
level of the groundwater table in the Far North, North and the northern part of
the Adamawa regions.
- high risk of a decrease in the volume of water in dams, and water catchment
and treatment sites in the Far North, North and the northern part of the
Adamawa region.
d) In the tourism sector:
- high risk of recording many cases of wildlife migration, due to water shortages in
tourist sites in the Far North, North and the northern part of the Adamawa
regions.
e) In the environment and biodiversity sector:
- risk of the occurrence of thick fog, especially in the early morning for some
localities located on the outskirts of large cities and on the hillsides of cities such as
Yaounde, Ebolowa and Bertoua in the Bimodal rainfall forest zone; Bamenda, Santa,
Menka, Batibo, Guzang, Munkep, Esu, Kumbo, Bali, Fundong and Wum in the
Highlands zone; Fontem, Mamfe, Buea, Limbe, Kumba, Tiko, Idenau and
Mutenguene, Loum, Manjo, Mbanga, Penja, Souza, Edea and Nkongsamba in the
Mono-modal rainfall forest zone, with a high risk of traffic accidents;
- risk of recording many cases of:
- bush fires in various localities in the Far North, North and the northern parts
of Adamawa regions;
- poaching in areas close to protected areas due to their migration out of reserves
in search of water and food in the Far North, North and the northern part of the
Adamawa regions;
- conflicts between farmers and certain wildlife species in the Far North, North
and the northern part of the Adamawa regions;
f) In the livestock sector:
- numerous cases of epizootic diseases due to the cold weather in some localities in
the Far North, North and Adamawa regions;
- scarcity of pasture and water resources in the Far North, North and Adamawa
regions
- migration of transhumant herders in search of water points and grazing land in the
Far North, North and the northern part of the Adamawa regions;
- increase in conflicts between herders and farmers over water points, plains and
lowlands in the Far North, North, northern part of the Adamawa and and the
Northwest regions.
VI. Assessment of climate predictions for the decade from 11th to 20th March, 2020
Agro Ecological zones Soudano-Sahelian Guinea High
Savannah Bimodal Rainfall forest High plateau Monomodal Rainfall
Forest
Regions Far North North Adamawa East Centre South West Nord West South West Littoral
Minimum temperatures
Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(°C) 24,5 26,7 22,8 19,3 18,8 21,2 17,5 17,7 21,9 21
Trend forecasts
Success rates of Forecasts (%) 100 88,88 80 75 85 70 100 91,66 91,66 100
Maximum temperatures
Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(°C) 38,95 39,5 33 30,95 29,3 29,88 27,7 27,83 29,1 28,66
Trend forecasts
Success rates of Forecasts (%) 80,8 77 70 74,32 77,3 80 72,11 70 77,2 79,56
Precipitations
Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(mm) 0-2 0-2 0-2 21-75 21-82 50-99 20-68 22-75 20-78 55-84
Trend forecasts ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈
Success rates of Forecasts (%) 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
≈ = Around the mean; = Reduction; = Increase
It is recommended within this period to:
a) In the agricultural sector
Farmers in the southern regions of Cameroon (Centre, East, Littoral, North West, West, South and South West) are encouraged to plant during this dekad.
b) In the health sector
- raise public awareness to strictly respect basic hygiene and sanitation rules (wash hands regularly, wash food items, filter drinking water before consumption in
households, use latrines, avoid the accumulation of household waste in the vicinity of dwellings, the population is strongly encouraged to drink warm water, etc.);
- sensitize populations to drink a lot of water and moderate their consumption of alcohol during this period;
- dress warmly and put on sleeping gears in localities experiencing cold nights during this period;
- encourage the population to sleep under mosquito nets;
- Strengthen community surveillance at the level of rural health centres to ensure rapid investigation and speedy management of suspicious cases.
c) In the livestock sector
- organise vaccination campaigns for small and big livestock as well as poultry to prevent epizootic diseases Far North, North and Adamaoua;
- keeping livestock away from the fields and surround the fields with barbed wire;
- practice sedentary animal husbandry;
- raise awareness on the dangers of bush fires and their impacts on the environment and biodiversity in the Far North, North and Adamawa regions.
VII. Some recommendations
For more information, contact:
P.O. Box 35414
House no 1220, Street no 1793, Bastos, Yaounde, Cameroon
Tel. (237)693 370 504 /(237)222 209 500
E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected]
Website: www.onacc.cm
