NOAA ESRL GSD Assimilation and Modeling Branch

NOAA ESRL GSDAssimilation and Modeling Branch

WoF / Hi-Impact Wx Workshop1 April 2014 – Norman, OK

From RAPv3/HRRR-2014 to theNARRE/HRRRE era

Stan Benjamin Curtis Alexander David Dowell Ming HuSteve Weygandt John BrownTanya Smirnova Haidao Lin Georg Grell Eric JamesGeorg Grell Joe Olson

Steven Peckham Jaymes KenyonTracy Smith Brian Jamison NOAA NCEPGeoff Manikin Geoff DiMego EMC colleagues

HRRR 1 Apr 201410z +15h composite reflectivity (valid 02z)

Norman colleaguesNSSL, SPC, CAPS, U.Oklahoma

NCEP implementations ofRAP version 2 and HRRR

RAP

HRRR

RAP “Version 2” real-time at

GSD, final testing NCEP “Version 2” NCEP

implementationoccurred25 Feb 2014

HRRR

Real-time experimental at GSD, testing at NCEP Planned NCEP implementation

August 2014

3

2005-7Pre-radarassimilation

~20022009w/ radar refl assim (RUC/HRRR)

20133km radar DA - HRRR

Crossover in forecast skill between nowcasting/extrapolation vs. NWP

2014 HRRR

Rapid RefreshHourly Update Cycle

1-hrfcst

1-hrfcst

1-hrfcst

11 12 13Time (UTC)

AnalysisFields

3DVAR

Obs

3DVAR

Obs

Back-groundFields

Partial cycle atmospheric fields – introduce GFS information 2x/dayCycle hydrometeorsFully cycle all land-sfc fields(soil temp, moisture, snow)

Hourly Observations RAP 2014 N. Amer

Rawinsonde (T,V,RH) 120

Profiler – NOAA Network (V) Down to 9 (!)

Profiler – 915 MHz (V, Tv) 20-30

Radar – VAD (V) 125

Radar reflectivity - CONUS 1kmLightning (proxy reflectivity) NLDN (GLD360 later)

Aircraft (V,T) 2-15KAircraft - WVSS (RH) 0-800

Surface/METAR (T,Td,V,ps,cloud, vis, wx) 2200- 2500

Buoys/ships (V, ps) 200-400Mesonet Flagged for now

GOES AMVs (V) 2000- 4000

AMSU/HIRS/MHS radiances Used

GOES cloud-top press/temp low-level (<1200m AGL) bldg added

GPS – Precipitable water 260

WindSat scatterometer 2-10K

Observations Used

4

DataAssimilation

AssimilationType

PBL Pseudo Innovations

Soil Adjustment

Low-Cloud Building

Snow Cover Building

Lightning Obs(radar refl proxy)

RAPv1 GSI 3D-VAR No No No No No

RAPv2GSI EnKF-3DVAR

Hybrid + temp-dep radar-hydrometeor

Yes Yes Yes Yes + revised trimming Yes

Model Version Horiz/VertAdvection

ScalarAdvection

Upper-LevelDamping

SW RadiationUpdate Land Use Land-sfc

model PBL Micro-physics

RadiationLW/SW

RAPv1 WRF-ARW V3.2+ 5th/3rd Monotonic w-Rayleigh

0.02 30 min USGS RUC 6-lev MYJ Thompson

V3.2RRTM/

Goddard

RAPv2 WRF-ARWv3.4.1+ 5th/5th Positive-

Definitew-Rayleigh

0.2 10 min MODISFractional

RUC 9-lev

MYNN

Thompson v3.4.1

RRTM/ Goddard w/

snow fix

Major changes for RAPv2Assimilation – hybrid ensemble assimilation, soil/PBL/surface/cloud assimilationModel – - land-surface, PBL, cloud physics

RAPv2 enhancements over RAPv1

5

RAPv2 PBL moisture pseudo-obs

Improved PBL moisture structure, crucial for RAP / HRRR

MEM 21z 21 Dec 2013 Analyzed sounding

RAPv1

RAPv2RAPv1 RAPv2

Model-based sfcOA MLCAPE/CIN & EFF. SHEAR

Images courtesy Israel Jirak, Steven Weiss, Phillip Bothwell,

Andy Dean, Storm Prediction Center

Data Assimilation ModelGFS EnKF-3DVAR hybrid data assimilationPBL-based pseudo-innovationsSurface-obs-based soil moisture/temp adjustmentLow cloud building / othercloud enhancementsTemp-dependent radar hydrometeor buildingLightning data assimilationGSI trunk update

Physics changes MYJ MYNN v3.5.1-Joe Olson PBL scheme 9-layer RUC LSM (from 6-layer, Tanya Smirnova) MODIS land-use (fractional) Modified roughness length Revised Thompson cloud m-phys. Higher-order numerics introduced Positive definite scalar advection 5th-order vertical advection Update to WRFv3.4.1

RAP version 2 upgrades

7

RMSE Vertical Profiles -- 22 Nov – 22 Dec 2012

RAPv2 Hybrid RAPv1 No Hybrid (3D-VAR)

Wind

TempRHWind

03-hr Forecast

12-hr Forecast

RH Temp

RAPv2 Hybrid Data Assimilation

Improved upper-air environment 8

Soil Temperature Soil MoistureValid

20 UTC 03 June 2013

Cooling

Warming

RAPv2 Soil Adjustment

MoisteningDrying

Based upon surface temperature and dewpoint analysis increments – new option within GSI. Critical also for HRRR

9Improved soil, near-surface temperature, moisture

RAPv2 WITHlightning assim

RAPV1 No lightning assim

Rapid Refresh – 0h valid 02z 26 Jan 2012

RAP Lightning Assimilation

Improved convective coverage off the coast with lightning assimilation

ObservedReflectivity

NSSL Seminar Series 04 June 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 10NCEP Production Suite Review 4-5 December 2012Rapid Refresh / HRRR 10NOAA/ESRL/GSD 18 Feb 2014 10RAPv2 for NWS Regions

Radar observed HRRR 12-h forecast

Composite Reflectivity (dBZ)

NOAA Next-Generation RAP / HRRR System Forecast of Mid-Atlantic Derecho – 29 June 2012

Valid 11PM EDT Real-time HRRR forecast

HRRR Experiment with 2011 RAP DA

Key 2012 DA improvements• PBL-pseudo-obs for moisture• Soil moisture/temp adjustment

3-km Interp

2013 HRRR Initialization from RAP

GSI Hybrid

Obs

GSI cld Anx

DigitalFilter

1 hr

fcst

CldObs

ReflObs18 hr fcst

GSI Hybrid

Obs

GSI cld Anx

DigitalFilter

1 hr

fcst

CldObs

ReflObs18 hr fcst

GSI Hybrid

Obs

GSI cld Anx

DigitalFilter

CldObs

ReflObs18 hr fcst

3 km HRRR

13z 14z 15z13 km RAP

Refl Obs

1 hr pre-fcst Obs

GSI cld Anx

GSI 3D-VAR CldO

bs

15 hr fcst

GFS

Ens GF

SEn

s GFS

Ens

HRRR 2h fcst~ +1:10 hr

1 hr fcst

Radar Obs05:00z 18 May

2013

0-hr fcst3-km radar

DA

0-hr fcstNO 3-km radar

DA

Improved 0-2 hr Convective Fcsts

05z + 0 min

18th IOAS-AOLS / 4th R2O 4 February 2014HRRR Implementation 13


2013


05z + 15 min

15-min fcst3-km radar

DA

15-min fcstNO 3-km radar

DA



2013


05z + 30 min


DA


DA



2013


05z + 45 min


DA


DA



2013


05z + 1 hour

1-hr fcst3-km radar

DA

1-hr fcstNO 3-km radar

DA



2013 HRRR improvements over 2012 HRRR

2012 HRRR2013 HRRR

CSI vs. lead-time

25 dBZreflectivity40-km verif

Eastern USReal-time

1 June – 31 Augrespective years

NOT event matched, but long-term and

season match

Improvements from RAP DA (moisture pseudo-obs, soil-adjust, hybrid) and from HRRR 3-km radar DA

Model Data Assimilation

RAP-ESRL(13 km)

WRFv3.5.1+ incl. physics changesPhysics changes: Grell-Freitas convective scheme MYNN PBL scheme - Olson version RUC LSM update Thompson microphysics – v3.5.1 RRTMG radiation schemeShallow cumulus parm w/ rad feedMODIS veg fraction/leaf area index

Merge with GSI trunkIncrease ensemble weight in hybrid DA8m2m bkg for sfc Td assim

Radiance bias correctionNew sat assimilation (NOAA-19, METOP-B, GOES, direct readout – RARS)

HRRR (3 km)

WRFv3.5.1+ incl. physics changesPhysics changes: MYNN PBL scheme - Olson version RUC LSM update Thompson microphysics – v3.5.1 RRTMG radiation schemeNumerics changes: 6th order diffusion in flat terrain smooth terrain @lat BC

3-km hybrid ens/var assimilation (was var-only in 2013)8m2m bkg for sfc Td assimRadar LH – 4x less intense than 2013 (2x less intense than RAP but more local)

Changes with high/medium importance for overall forecast skill

Candidate RAPv3/HRRRv2 Changes

1200 UTC 19 May 2013

25 dBZ CSI3 km 25 dBZ CSI

20 km

25 dBZ CSI40 km

25 dBZ CSI80 km

HRRR using 2014 RAPv3 IC with ens=0.75 DA, new physics (not yet 2m qv DA)HRRR in 2013 real-time w/ RAPv2 IC

HRRR tests – 15-22 May 2013 -

Included new sensors/dataGOES sounding data from GOES-15amsua/mhs from noaa-19 and metop-b；

Included the RARS data (Just on Zeus now)Removed some high peaking channels to fit

the model top of RAP and removed the ozone channels

Implemented the enhanced bias correction scheme with cycling

Summary of radiance updates for RAP V3

Radiance channels used for RAP V3• AMSU-A (remove high-peaking channels)

• noaa_n15: channels 1-10, 15;• noaa_n18: channels 1-8, 10,15;• noaa_n19: channels 1-7, 9-10, 15;• metop-a: channels 1-6, 8-10,15;• metop-b: channels 1-10, 15;

• HIRS4 (remove high-peaking and ozone channels)• metop-a: channels: 4-8, 10-15;

• MHS • noaa_n18, noaa-19, metop-a, and metop-b: channels 1-5;

• GOES (remove high-peaking and ozone channels)• GOES-15 (sndD1,sndrD2,sndrD3,sndrD4): channels 3-8, 10-15.

Use of 2m qv background (instead of k=1 (~8m w/ σ=0.997))• New in RAPv3 – GSI mod• 2m dewpoint measurement is

at…. 2m• Moist bias introduced with use of

k=1 background for qv

• 8m qv usually drier than 2m qv

• Moisture bias much reduced in 1000-800 hPa in daytime – 00z verification

• Also evident at 12z• => improvement in convective

environment

RH (%) bias vs. raobs, 15-22 May 2013 6h forecasts - RAP experiments

RAPv2-fall ver

RAPv3RAPv3 w/ 2m qv DA

RAPv3 w/ 2m qv DA

Verif at 00z6h fcsts

Verif at 12z6h fcsts

ESRL – experimental version• RAPv1 – used in 2011

– Initialized 2011 HRRR– effective but too many storms

• RAPv2 – used in 2012-2013– Initialized 2012-2013 HRRR– Better surface DA, hybrid DA radar

• HRRR – 2012– Major improvement over 2011

(storm bias, coverage/accuracy)

• HRRR – 2013– 3km/15min radar assimilation– Initialized from RAPv2-2013– Available 45 min earlier, much

more accurate 0-15h storm forecasts, more reliable 2-computer

NWS-NCEP - operational

• Implemented 1 May 2012

• RAPv2 - implemented scheduled on 25 Feb 2014 running in NCEP/NCO testing now

• HRRR – Implementation scheduled for Aug 2014 HRRR testing on WCOSS with real-time end-to-end runs underway (Curtis, Ming heroics)

HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesRAP/HRRR Implementation Map

ESRL – experimental version• RAPv3 – to be used in 2014

– Will initialize 2014 ESRL-HRRR(v2)– Improved PBL, convection, sfc assim

• RAPv4 – to be used in 2015– Will initialize 2015 ESRL-HRRR(v3) – Target: hourly RAP ensemble for

ensemble data assimilation

• HRRRv2 – 2014– Improved radar assimilation, surface

assimilation, PBL/cloud physics• HRRRv3 – 2015

– To be initialized from RAP ensemble data assimilation + improved 3km physics (incl. aerosol-aware microphysics from NCAR/Thompson)

NWS-NCEP - operational

• Implement early 2015

• Implement 2016

• Implement 2015

• Implement 2016

HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesRAP/HRRR Implementation Map

NOTE: ~42h HRRR forecast run 1-2x daily to start by May 2014 for energy and severe wx forecasts – on DOE computer. (

26

NARRE/HRRRE Roadmap - Highlights – 2014-19 (for FAA Model Development & Enhancement Product Development Team)

2014 Implement HRRR (v1) at NCEP (convection, icing, terminal). • Develop RAPv3 and HRRRv2 toward 2015 implementations at NCEP.

• Extension of HCPF and NARRE/TL into improved aviation

probabilistic fields • Start on 3km-ensemble-DA on small domain retro test2015 Implement RAPv3 and HRRRv2 at NCEP. • Implement regional ensemble data assimilation into parallel

experimental RAP at ESRL into test version as part of continued NARRE development. Development of RAP and HRRR continues.

2016 Implement NAMRR at NCEP, using same single regional ensemble assimilation. • Implement regional ensemble assimilation to initialize

RAP/NAMRR.2018 Implementation for 6-member NARRE with ARW and NMMB members at NCEP for improved aviation probabilistic forecasts. 2019 Implementation of multi-member HRRRE with ARW and NMMB 3km-supercell-capable members at NCEP

RUC / RAP / HRRR growth in number ofmodel gridpoints* compared to Moore’s law*

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020100

1,000

10,000

100,000

1,000,000

Moore's law model GP's

*NOTE: other aspects of the model system (# variables, etc.) also increased, making this a conservative estimate of model memory growth*NOTE: Moore’s law baselined to 1994 RUC1

RUC1

RUC2RUC20

RUC13RAP13

HRRR

# m

odel

grid

poin

ts (

x 10

00)

Year

RUC / RAP / HRRR model growth rate similar to Moore’s Law

Moore’s Law(2x per 2 yrs)

(60)

(40)

(3)growth [dx (km)]

HRRR – 1800 x 1060

HRRR – 1800 x 1060 (=1.9M)

Initial HRRR-EnKF-DA test670x360 = 0.24M7.5x smaller than CONUS HRRR(aim for 10x smaller)

HRRR-ens-DA demo – some numbers – HPC requirements in 2013 cores

• 1,000 – current HRRR (CONUS fcst in 40-50 min)By 2017 (research), 2019-20 at NCEP?• 10,000 - HRRR-full-domain hourly EnKF – 80-mem• 10,000 – HRRRE with 10 members

HRRR EnKF DA demo + HRRRE – mini-10% NE domain• 1,000 – EnKF DA• 500 – 10-member HRRRE, run to 6h only

31

Directions for MDE for 2015-2025 to improve AHP forecasting & NAS efficiency

• Further improvement in data assimilation– Ensemble-based DA, later toward 4d-ens-var

• Improve cloud/hydrometeor assimilation use of radar, PBL, satellite observations

• Probabilistic AHP fcsts thru hourly updated ensembles– NARRE, HRRRE, improved global ensemble

• Update frequency– Needs to go to every 30 min by 2020, then to 15-min in early 2020s and

every 5-min by late 2020s– Use full NWP with high-frequency radar and satellite data– Coordination with NOAA Warn-On-Forecast plan (improved 1-2h

forecasts updated on 5-min basis with storm-scale ensemble data assimilation)

32

MDE directions – 2015-2015, continued (2)

• Resolution– 3km horizontal resolution may be sufficient (with higher-order numerics as used in the

current WRF-ARW dynamic core) until computer power allows resolution of 200-500m or less

– Vertical resolution must be increase to at least 75-100 levels to improve better forecasts of terminal conditions, convection (via improved boundary-layer development), icing (via improved vertical resolution of clouds).

– There will be a trade-off between horizontal/vertical resolution and ensemble size. If there is fairly little improvement in depiction of convective storms from 3km down to 0.5km, then additional computer power may first be applied to ensemble forecasting and ensemble data assimilation.

– 1km fixed nests around hubs may be appropriate.• Cloud microphysics

– Further improvements in cloud microphysics are essential, including aerosol-aware microphysics and higher-order moment or even bin microphysics.

• Fog – Again, increased vertical resolution in the lowest 200-400m and aerosol-aware

microphysics will lead to an improvement for these forecasts

33

MDE directions, continued (3)• Inline chemistry

– Should be used in all NCEP models– RAP-chem already running experimentally over N.America every 6h– Critical for improved visibility – near-terminal and slant visibility– Critical for cloud/hydrometeor effects

• Volcanic ash– Real-time forecasts of volcanic ash with an hourly updated model (like RAP) are now feasible. Inline

chemistry is available and is already running in an experimental real-time version of the RAP over North America. Real-time global eruption data is now available from the USAF and is being copied in real-time to NOAA/ESRL.

• Boundary-layer physics interaction with land-surface, radiation, cloud physics – An integrated unified approach to boundary-layer, sub-grid-scale mixing is needed and already an

area of initial research.• Output frequency

– Down to 15min for selected 2-d fields from HRRR, expect full-resolution 3-d output at 5-15min output frequency

• New emphasis on terminal weather– E.g., lake breeze at ORD– Wake mitigation

34

MDE directions, continued (4)• Contrail forecasting

– Will be improved significantly by aerosol-aware microphysics and inline chemistry

• Global Rapid Refresh– FIM model now produces improved wind forecasts over GFS at 12h and longer

durations– WRF/RAP physics can be included, 15-km in real-time

• Computing advances expected– GPU or MIC or other, 2-5x jump in CPU/$

• New observations expected– Radar – MPAR, integration of CASA, TDWR– Satellites – GOES-R and NPOESS– Regional aircraft observations?– Vast increase in obs from 20-300m – proprietary – tower, nacelle, sodar

Evolution of hourly updated NOAA modeling

Feb 2014 Rapid Refresh v2 – NCEP oper• PBL/soil/radar assimilation enhancements Improved surface forecasts,

convective environment fields• Hybrid ensemble-variational GSI assimilation• Model – improved cloud / PBL / LSM, numerics improvements, updated WRFJuly 2014 – HRRR (3km) - planned NCEP oper with 3km/15min radar refl. assimilation 2015 – RAPv3 / HRRRv2North American Rapid Refresh

Ensemble(NARRE) ~2017 • NMM, ARW cores

• Hourly updating with GSI-hybrid EnKF• Initially 6 members, 3 each core, physics

diversity (stochastic only or with RAP/NAM/NCAR suites)• Hourly forecasts to 24-h• NMMB (+ARW?) members to 84-h 4x/day

Rapid Refresh NARRE

2017 – Ensemble Rapid Refresh/NAM – NARRE (w/ hybrid 4d-ens/var DA)

2019? – Ensemble HRRR– HRRRE – (ultimately with hourly ~3km ensemble DA)

HRRR

NARRE / HRRRE at NCEP

Documents

NOAA ESRL GSD Assimilation and Modeling Branch