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Date: 20-03-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
HOME
• Cotton • Sugar • Soyben • RM Seed • Castor seed • Turmeric • Jeera
NCoMM
NCML COMMODITY MARKET MONITOR
Cotton | Sugar | Soybean | RM Seed | Castor seed | Turmeric | Jeera
OUTLOOK
OTHER DATA Sowing progress | Advance estimates | Kharif and rabi MSP
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Cotton • Soybean • RM Seed • Jeera • Chilli • Castor Seed • Turmeric
0
Date: 20-03-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has further brought down India’s
2017-18 cotton production estimate to 362 lakh bales from 367 lakh bales
forecasted few weeks ago. Estimates are lowered due to the crop
damage by pink boll worm attack and water scarcity in some states. Last
year’s production was 345 lakh bales.
Industry veterans at the 9th Asian Textiles Conference, organised by the
Confederation of Indian Textile Industry, estimated India’s 2017-18 cotton
output to remain flat at around 345 lakh bales from 2016-17, despite a
significant increase in sowing during the kharif season, due to extensive
pink bollworm attack in major growing states of Maharashtra, Telangana,
Andhra & Karnataka.
The Maharashtra government has estimated at least a 17% decline in the
state's output, due to the pink bollworm impact.
India's cotton exports have been gathering pace after global prices
jumped to four-year highs, with traders signing contracts in the last three
weeks to ship over 10 lakh bales. Bangladesh, Vietnam & Pakistan are
aggressively buying from India due to lower prices.
Indian merchants have contracted to export 47 lakh bales so far this
marketing year, of which nearly 35 lakh have already been shipped
The CAI has now revised up India's cotton exports to 60 lakh bales in 2017-
18 against 63 lakh bales a year ago. However it seems that exports may
touch 65 lakh tonnes.
The nation's cotton stocks could fall to their lowest in 14 years to 22 lakh
bales from the earlier estimated 42 lakh bales at the end of the 2017/18
season, sapped by higher exports & higher domestic consumption.
The Indian government has reduced the maximum sale price of transgenic
Bt cotton seeds from Rs 800 per packet earlier to Rs 740 to help cotton
growers hit by pest attacks. The royalty fee payable by seed firms to
technology developer Monsanto Mahyco Biotech (India) Ltd (MMBL) has
also been slashed to Rs 39 per packet from Rs 49.
Indian cotton is poised to see more uptick in the coming days and overall
price trendis likely to remain firm on high demand from local ginners and
exporters alike.
Increased supply from India could drag on the rally in international prices.
USDA in its latest report pegs 2017-18 world cotton production at 121.37
mn bales (of 480-lb) against 106.57 mn bales produced in 2016-17. The
consumption is pegged at 120.50 mn bales against 114.75 mn bales in 2016-
17 and the ending stocks are estimated higher at 88.55 mn bales against
87.66 mn bales last year.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
19-03-2018 12-03-2018 %Change
Kadi 29 mm 11507 11389 1.04
Rajkot (29 mm) 19713.7 20048.3 -1.67
Abohar (Med Staple) 10488.8 10493.8 -0.05
14000
16000
18000
20000
22000
24000
No
v-15
Jan
-16
Mar
-16
May
-16
Jul-1
6
Se
p-1
6
No
v-16
Jan
-17
Mar
-17
May
-17
Jul-1
7
Se
p-1
7
No
v-17
Jan
-18
Mar
-18
Cotton - 29 mm - Rajkot
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Further cut down in India’s cotton production estimate by CAI due to pink bollworm infestation in Maharashtra & Telangana
Bullish
Adequate supplies in market Bearish
Higher overall production over last year and higher closing stock expected from last year
Bearish
Higher domestic demand by ginners Bullish
Higher exports due to higher global prices
Bullish
Higher global production Bearish
Based on primary and secondary factors
Fundamental Report COTTON
0
Date: 20-03-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
India’s soybean imports have hit a record high this year and more buying
is expected as domestic supplies tighten in the domestic market due to
lower production.
Traders have signed deals to sell up to 100,000 tonnes of soybeans to
India since December, shipping mainly from the African countries of
Ethiopia and Benin with which the South Asian nation has concessional
import duty agreements. India’s soybean imports have never previously
approached 100,000 tonnes.
The Soybeans Processors’ Association of India (SOPA) has estimated
India's soybean output at 8.35 mn tonnes for the 2017-18 season, 24%
lower than 10.9 mn tonnes produced in the previous year.
India’s soybean output is lower this season due to 5% lower acreage over
last year, flood-induced crop damage in major growing states, followed
by blight disease in the plants.
The arrival of soybean is declining in the mandis. Positive trend overseas
and restricted supplies in the domestic spot market are fuelling Soybean
prices in India while Profit–booking at higher levels is limiting the upside
to an extent.
Soymeal exports are likely to be lower this season following higher
prices in the market. SOPA has estimated India's soybean meal exports
at 1.25 million tonnes for FY 2017-18 compared to 2 mn tonnes reported
for the previous year.
The government has recently increased import duty on crude palm oil to
44% from 30%, while custom duties on refined palmolein and refined
palm oil has been raised to 54% from 40%. However SEA is seeking hike in
import duties of soya oil too in same proportion as palm oils for farmers.
Import duty on crude soy oil was hiked from 17.5 percent to 30 percent
while refined soy oil import duty is hiked from 20% to 35%.
Soybean at CBOT continued the positive tone. Argentina’s output
estimate has been further has been to 40 MMT compared to previous
estimates of 46.5 mn MT due to drought in the country.
Soybean harvest in Brazil has reached 58% till date compared to 62%
during the same time previous year. Brazil is expected to export a record
70 MMT of soybean in 2018-19 which is 12% higher than previous year.
Brazil’s crop is anticipated to be bigger than last year’s record 114 mn
tonnes & global supply estimate is higher amid record crop in U.S.
2700
2980
3260
3540
3820
4100
4380
No
v-15
Mar
-16
Jun
-16
Se
p-1
6
De
c-16
Ap
r-17
Jul-1
7
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Soybean Indore
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Soybean output estimated 24% lower than last year
Bullish
Record high soybean imports in India touching 100,000 tonnes
Bearish
Declining arrivals Bullish
Profit–booking at higher levels Bearish
Lower soymeal export Bearish
Dry weather in Argentina and lagged Brazilian harvest leading to positive tone at CBOT
Bullish
Higher global output on back of high Brazil and US harvest
Bearish
Based on primary and secondary factors
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
19-03-2018 12-03-2018 %Change
Indore 3776 3777 -0.03
Kota 3700 3700 0.00
Nagpur 3863.25 3817.8 1.19
Fundamental Report SOYBEAN
0
Date: 20-03-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
According to estimates given by AP agriculture dept as on 14th February,
Chilli area declined by 35% to 0.25 lakh Ha from 0.39 Lakh Ha in 2017,
while in Telangana decline is to the tune of 55% to 0.11 lakh Ha from 0.24
lakh Ha in 2017.
As on 28th February cold storage stock in Guntur area is reported to be
higher at around 89000-98000 MT this year as compared to 38000-
45000 last year on the back of higher production last year.
According to Agmarknet chilli arrivals have been around 6800 MT from
1-15 March as compared to 13300MT last year a decrease of about 50%
due to lower production this year.
Lower chilli arrivals in the market compared to the previous year
indicates that stockists are still holding back their stocks in expectation
of higher prices during coming months as we move into lean arrival
season.
Transactions in Asia’s largest chilly market were seen effected during
first week of March 2018 due to concerns over implementation of
Electronic National Agricultural marketing (eNAM) in Guntur market.
Chilli exports were picked up last year to about 2.35 lakh tonnes, which
is almost 42% increase from 1.65 lakh tonnes during 2016-17 on the back
of higher production and lower prices during 2017.
The Spot market in Guntur Warangal and Khammam are witnessing an
increased demand for Teja variety backed by increased export
requirements from china as it procures 40-50% of the production. Teja is
preferred for its pungency or heat value in China.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
19-03-2018 12-03-2018 %Change
Guntur Teja 10000 9500 5.26
Warangal Teja 10400 9200 13.04
Khammam Teja 10200 9650 5.70
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Jun
-16
Sep
-16
Dec
-16
Mar
-17
Jun
-17
Sep
-17
Dec
-17
Mar
-18
Chilli Guntur
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Lower acreage this year Bullish
Higher Export Demand
Bullish
Ongoing arrivals Bearish
Based on Primary & Secondary Sources
Fundamental Report CHILLI
0
Date: 20-03-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Rajasthan State Cooperative Marketing Federation Ltd (RAJFED) and
HAFED will procure mustard seed at MSP i.e. Rs. 4000 in Rajasthan and
Haryana respectively. RAJFED will procure 6 lakh tonnes whereas HAFED
will procure 2.5 lakh tonnes of mustard seed.
As per market sources, millers are anticipating that most of the farmers
will liquidate the stock of mustard seed to RAJFED & HAFED and they
might not get required quantity at lower price level.
Harvesting activities of mustard crop is going on all major producing
states. According the agmark, all India mustard arrivals in the 3rd week of
March is 1.62 MT which is 6.57 percent higher than 2nd week arrival of 1.52
lakh MT.
According to the trade sources, quality of the new crop is good. Moisture
level is slightly higher than normal.
Demand of mustard is higher than normal as stockiest are active in the
market. They are stocking in expectation of getting higher prices in the
futures as production estimate is lower this year.
India’s mustard meal exports in the month of February 2018 were 42.231
(provisional) thousand MT, higher by 69.05 per cent against 24.98
thousand MT in January 2018. Average FoB price of meal in February is
recorded at $235 per tonne which is slightly higher than average price of
$226 per tonne in the month of January. Total mustard oil meal exports
from April ‘17 to February ‘18 are 5.29 Lakh MT as against 2.07 lakh MT in
the same time period last year.
As per second advance production estimate of 2017-18, India’s mustard
production is estimated at 7.54 million metric tonne which is 6.91 per cent
lower than first advance production estimate of 8.10 million metric tonne.
In 2016-17, government production estimate was 7.917 million metric
tonnes.
According to latest update from SEA of India, the total production of
mustard seed in the current year is estimated at 6.33 million metric tonnes
which is 3.72 per cent lower than the last year production estimate of
6.575 million MT.
Lower production estimate is due to lower sowing acreage in major
producing states. Farmers have reduced the area due to higher
temperature and lack of rainfall at the time of sowing.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
19-03-2018 12-03-2018 %Change
Jaipur 4009.35 4100 -2.21
Alwar 3870.5 3973.5 -2.59
Sriganga Nagar 3701 3688 0.35
3,500
3,750
4,000
4,250
4,500
4,750
5,000
5,250
Jun
-15
Au
g-1
5
No
v-15
Feb
-16
May
-16
Jul-1
6
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-17
Jul-1
7
Se
p-1
7
De
c-17
Mar
-18
Rapeseed & Mustard-Black - 42% oil content : Jaipur
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Procurement activities by state government
Consolidation
Higher crop arrivals in the market Bearish
Higher demand by stockiest Bullish
Higher meal demand Bullish
Lower production estimate Bullish
Based on Primary & Secondary Sources
Fundamental Report RM SEED
0
Date: 20-03-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
According to the agmark, all India jeera arrivals in the third week of
March is 13.15 thousand MT which is 23.26 per cent higher than last
year arrivals of 10.09 thousand MT in the same time period. Good
amount of the new crop from Gujarat is reported whereas newly
harvested crop from Rajasthan is also coming in the market. Higher
arrivals in the market may not let prices to take sharp northward
movement.
According to the local trader of Unjha market, quality of new crop
arriving in the market is good. Moisture content is around 8-10 per
cent.
Production of Jeera is estimated to be higher than last year with
both Gujarat and Rajasthan reporting increase in acreage. The
climate was also conducive and the output is likely to be high. As
per Unjha based traders, Jeera output is estimated at around 65-70
lakh bags (55 kg each) in 2018.
Demand of jeera is higher than normal due to present lower levels
at the spot market. Stockiest are active in the market as they are
not expecting much downward movement in the coming days.
According to the DGCIS, India exports of jeera in the time period of
April to November 2017 is reported at 98.681 thousand MT which is
15 per cent higher than the last year exports for the same time
period. Jeera exports are set to rise in 2017-18 (Apr-Mar) due to the
ongoing political unrest in Syria and decline in stocks in Turkey.
Until the new crop arrives in Syria in June, India will be the sole
supplier of the spice in the global market.
According to market sources, Syrian Cumin seed crop is likely to be
around 30,000 to 40,000 metric tonnes this year, while Turkey is
likely to harvest between 12,000 to 15,000 metric tonnes.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
19-03-2018 12-03-2018 %Change
Unjha 15811.1 16405.55 -3.62
Junagadh 13480 14012 -3.80
Dhanera 13750 14250 -3.51
13000
15000
17000
19000
21000
Feb
-16
May
-16
Jul-1
6
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-17
Jul-1
7
Oct
-17
De
c-17
Mar
-18
Cumin Seed (Kala Jeera) - Unjha
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Higher crop arrivals in the market Bearish
Higher production estimate Bearish
Higher demand at lower levels Bullish
Higher export demand Bullish
Based on Primary & Secondary Sources
Fundamental Report JEERA
0
Date: 20-03-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Castor seed spot and futures market have remained range bound with
slight positive tone. Limited demand is observed in spot markets.
Traders reported that demand of castor seed from millers is limited due
to steady sales of castor oil. The new crop supply of castor seed is
gradually increasing which may result in further weakness in castor seed
price in coming days.
However, according to market sources, Millers are expecting good
export orders from overseas market as cost of castor oil has reduced
due to depreciation of rupee.
According to the second advance estimates for 2017-18 crops released
by Ministry of Agriculture, Castor seed production estimated at 14.97
lakh tonnes as against 13.76 lakh tonnes in 2016-17.
According to Government data the total area under castor in Rajasthan
for the year 2017-18 was 1.31 lakh hectares as against 1.42 lakh hectares
last year. The castor seed production as per 2nd advance estimates was
2.65 lakh tonnes as compared to 1.90 lakh tonnes in 2016-17.
Total area under castor in Gujarat for the year 2017-18 was 5.95 lakh
hectares as against 5.65 lakh hectares compared to previous year. Total
castor seed production in 2017-18 estimated at 11.11 lakh tonnes as
against 12.55 lakh tonnes in 2016-17.
SEA conducted Castor crop survey for crop estimation in major growing
states like Gujarat, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. It has
estimated domestic crop at 14.30 lakh tonnes for 2017-18 as compared to
10.60 lakh tonnes in 2016-17.
As per the Solvent Extractor Association of India Castor oil exports
during the financial year 2017-18 till December stood at 4.11 lakh tonnes
as against 4.15 lakh tonnes in corresponding period last year. In 2016-17
total castor oil exports reported were 5.37 lakh tonnes.
Stock position of Castor seed New at NCDEX warehouses as on 18th
March declined to 14,903 metric tonnes as compared to 74,312 metric
tonnes same period last year.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
19-03-2018 12-03-2018 %Change
Mehsana 4015 3995 0.50
Dhanera 4012 3970 1.06
Deesa 4167.3 4157.6 0.23
2800
3160
3520
3880
4240
4600
4960
Feb
-15
May
-15
Au
g-1
5
No
v-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-16
Jul-1
6
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Mar
-17
Jun
-17
Se
p-1
7
De
c-17
Mar
-18
Castor - Deesa
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Millers expecting good export demand
Bullish
Increased supplies of new crop in spot markets
Bearish
Significantly higher production estimates compared to last year
Bearish
Weak demand for Castor oil Bearish
Lower castor oil exports Bearish
Improved demand at lower levels
Bullish
Based on Primary & Secondary Sources
Fundamental Report CASTOR SEED
0
Date: 20-03-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Fundamental Report TURMERIC
Turmeric futures continue to trade weak as higher arrivals of new
crop in various spot markets across the country continue to keep
the market sentiments low.
According to local trader, arrivals of new Turmeric has just begun in
Nizamabad and Erode market leading to some recovery in prices,
but prices may feel some pressure when new arrival increases in
other centres.
As per market sources from Erode, traders are showing interest in
buying the new turmeric crop. Lower supply is reported from last
year as farmers and stockists were holding back their stocks on
expectation of higher prices in coming days as current year
production is likely to decline by 40-45 per cent in Tamil Nadu (Key
producing state) due to lower acreage.
Nizamabad market has received six lakh bags of new crop from this
year’s crop and the new crop supply is expected to gain
momentum in coming days.
According to traders, new turmeric supply is expected to start in
Warangal and Ksamudram from the coming weeks, which may
weigh on prices, however demand from herbal product
manufacturers may emerge sooner or later due to increasing trend
in herbal products.
As per the Ministry of Commerce data Turmeric exports during
April - December 2017 recorded a decline of 14 per cent lower at
81,756 metric tonnes as against 94,455 metric tonnes during same
period in 2016. India imported 11056.33 metric tonnes of Turmeric
during April- October 2017-18 as against 9537.83 metric tonnes
imported same period last year.
As per trade sources, production of Turmeric is estimated around
55-60 lakh bags versus 65 lakh bags (70kg each) in last year.
As per the Spices Board of India, Turmeric production in 2016-17
estimated at 10,51,160 tonnes as against 9,67,060 tonnes in 2015-16.
Turmeric stocks at NCDEX approved warehouses as on 18th March
2018 reported at 607 tonnes as against to 1676 tonnes same period
last year.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
19-03-2018 12-03-2018 %Change
Nizamabad 6930 6776.9 2.26
Sangli 6850 6800 0.74
Warangal 6039 5805 4.03
4800
5500
6200
6900
7600
8300
9000
9700
Jun
-14
No
v-14
Ap
r-15
Se
p-1
5
Feb
-16
Jul-1
6
De
c-16
May
-17
Oct
-17
Mar
-18
Turmeric : Unpolished fingers : Nizamabad
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Traders showing interest in new Turmeric
Bullish
Expectation of higher supplies in spot markets
Bearish
Subdued demand from domestic and overseas buyers
Bearish
Decline in productions estimates in tamil nadu resulting in overall production decline
Bullish
Lower exports compared to last year Bearish
Improved demand at lower levels Bullish
Based on Primary & Secondary Sources
0
Date: 20-03-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Sugar mills urge govt to re-
introduce minimum indicative
export quotas
Cane arrears rise to Rs 14,000 crore
till January, may touch record by
month-end: ISMAs
Procurement of wheat may cross 32
MT
India's April-January non-basmati
rice exports jump 34 per cent year
on year: Govt body
India has 30-35 MT storage space &
12,700 reefer vehicles, says Kohli
Mustard purchase at MSP of Rs
4,000 per quintal by HAFED
Loan waivers bring temporary
relief to farmers, but challenges
run much deeper- SANJAY KAUL
To purchase the India Commodity Year Book 2018, contact us at
Official Production Estimates
First advance estimates 2017-18 &
previous years’ estimates: First
Advance Estimates 2017-18
MINIMUM SUPPORT PRICE (Rs/Qtl.)
Commodity 2016-17 2017-18
KHARIF
Paddy Common 1470 1550
paddy grade A 1510 1590
Jowar Hybrid 1625 1700
Jowar Maldandi 1650 1725
Bajra 1330 1425
Ragi 1725 1900
Maize 1365 1425
Tur 5050 5450*
Moong 5225 5575*
Urad 5000 5400*
Groundnut 4220 4450*
Sunflower seed 3950 4100 #
Soyabean black 2775 3050
Sesamum 5000 5300 #
Nigerseed 3825 4050 #
Cotton(Medium Staple) 3680 4020
Cotton(Long Staple) 4160 4320
RABI
Commodity 2016-17 2017-18
Wheat 1625 1735
Barley 1325 1410
Gram 4000* 4400
Masur (Lentil) 3950* 4250
Rapeseed/Mustard 3700* 4000
Safflower 3700* 4100
Wheat 1625 1735
*includes bonus of Rs 200 per quintal
# includes bonus of Rs 100 per quintal
THE WEEK THAT WAS
Commodity Latest Fortnight ago
Month ago Year ago
19-Mar-18 05-Mar-18 19-Feb-18 20-Mar-17
Soyabean 3776 3931 3838 3034
RM seed 4009.35 4150 4112.5 4000
Turmeric 6930 6650 7129.15 6254.15
Cotton 19713.7 19919.4 19366.45 21084.5
Chilli teja 10000 9200 9800 7950
Jeera 15811.1 16812.5 18863.35 17514.4
Castor 4167.3 4112.3 4250 4529.05
PRICE TRACKER
Link for commodity-wise and market-
wise prices and arrivals:
http://agmarknet.gov.in/PriceAndArriv
als/CommodityWiseDailyReport2.aspx
0
Date: 20-03-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
RABI SOWING - Link
0
Date: 20-03-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Answers for 27 Feb 2018 Quiz:
Ans 1: Madhya Pradesh Ans 2: FALSE
People who gave correct answer:
Dr.Ravi Pratap Singh Sangwan
Sanjay Singh
Anant Nimbalkar
Vineet Poonia
Ranjit Singh
ASHWANI KUMAR
navdeep kaur
Sandipkumar Nayak
ANJALI
Ravi tanwar
s.narendra
Sudhakar Reddy
kapil singh bhakuni
Akansha Kumari
Mital Anadkat
Devaraj L
Mayank Mishra
Neetu Gautam
Nikhil Kumar
Brijesh Tripathi
Kumood Sharma
Dr. Raina Jain
Praveen Kumar Mundra
Maheshkumar Ramaswamy
MANOJ KUMAR PANDEY
Arun kumar
Babloo Kumar
Mital Anadkat
Devaraj L
Lucky Winner:
Raina Jain
0
Date: 20-03-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Advisory Team
Basant Vaid Head: TCIG [email protected]
Sreedhar Nandam Vice President: SCM [email protected]
Research Team
Suresh Solanki Assistant Manager: TCIG [email protected]
Kamna Malhotra Economist: TCIG [email protected]
Akash Jaiswal Research Analyst: TCIG [email protected]
Ansh Aggarwal Senior Officer: Trade Support [email protected]
For any research queries, contact us at [email protected]
Disclaimer:
This consultancy report has been prepared by National Collateral Management Services Limited (NCML) for the sole benefit of the
addressee. Neither the report nor any part of the report shall be provided to third parties without the written consent of NCML. Any
third party in possession of the report may not rely on its conclusions without the written consent of NCML. NCML has exercised
reasonable care and skill in preparation of this consultancy report but has not independently verified information provided by others.
No other warranty, express or implied, is made in relation to this report. Therefore, NCML assumes no liability for any loss resulting
from errors, omissions or misrepresentations made by others. Any recommendations, opinions and findings stated in this report are
based on circumstances and facts as they existed at the time of preparation of this report. Any change in circumstances and facts on
which this report is based may adversely affect any recommendations, opinions or findings contained in this report.
© National Collateral Management Services Limited (NCML) 2017