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Date: 13/11/2018 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

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⚫ • Cotton • Sugar • Soyben • RM Seed ⚫ • Castor seed • Turmeric • Jeera

NCoMM

NCML COMMODITY MARKET MONITOR

Cotton | Sugar | Soybean | RM Seed | Castor seed | Turmeric | Jeera

OUTLOOK

OTHER DATA Sowing progress | Advance estimates | Kharif and rabi MSP

ANSWERS & LUCKY WINNER OF PREVIOUS WEEK’S

RM Seed | Jeera | Castor Seed | Turmeric

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NCML COMMODITY MARKET MONITOR NCoMM

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Date: 13/11/2018 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Fundamental Report

• According to the latest rabi sowing progress report, as on 09th

November all India mustard acreage for 2018-19 is reported at 34.70

lakh hectares which is 6.34 per cent lower than 2017-18 acreage of 37.05

lakh hectares. Despite higher MSP of mustard, acreage has fallen due

to lower availability of water. However, acreage may increase in the

coming days depending upon the water availability.

• Mustard production target for 2018-19 is 84.86 lakh metric tonnes.

According to the fourth advance estimate of government, India

mustard production estimate for 2017-18 is 83.22 lakh metric tonnes

which is 5.11 percent higher than the 2016-17 production estimate of

79.17 lakh metric tonnes.

• Nafed is still holding around 5.89 lakh tonnes of mustard seed from

total procured quantity of 8.64lakh tonnes during the Rabi 2017.In the

coming days Nafed may offload mustard into the physical market as

prices has moved above the procurement price of Rs 4,000.

• The ongoing trade dispute between USA and China has created a lot of

uncertainty and making China to look out to other countries for their

requirements of oilmeals. China has allowed mustard meal imports

from India. However, strict quality parameters, export guidelines and

registration formalities have dampened exports in the near term.

• India’s mustard meal exports in the month of October 2018 were

25.234 thousand MT (provisional), lower by 77.92 per cent against

89.875 thousand MT in September 2018. Total exports of rapeseed

meal from April 2018 to October 2018 were 6.80 lakh MT which is 110.52

percent higher than 2017 exports of 3.23 lakh MT in the same time

period. Average FoB price of mustard meal in the month of October is

$229 which is higher than FoB price of August of $226.

• India’s rapeseed oil imports in the month of September 2018 is 11.996

thousand MT which is 51.05 percent lower than the import of August

2018 of 24.509 thousand MT. Total imports of rapeseed oil from

November 2017 to September 2018 were 2.40 lakh MT which is 5.88 per

cent lower than 2016-17 imports of 2.55 lakh MT in the same time

period. Imports of mustard oil decreased due to higher import duty

and higher crushing in India due to good demand of oilmeal.

• According to the latest USDA report, World rapeseed production

estimate for 2018-19 is 71.70 million metric tonnes which is 3.82 per cent

lower than 2017-18 estimate of 74.55 million MT.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

12-11-2018 12-11-2018 %Change

Jaipur 4260.4 4271.7 -0.26

Sriganganagar 4200 4200 0.00

Bulandshahr 3895 3895 0.00

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Lower sowing acreage Bullish

Higher production estimate Bearish

Higher stock with Nafed Bearish

China allowed mustard meal imports from India

Bullish

Lower exports of mustard meal Bearish

Lower imports of mustard oil Bearish

Based on Primary & Secondary Sources

3,500

3,750

4,000

4,250

4,500

4,750

5,000

5,250

Jul-1

5

Oct

-15

Jan

-16

Ap

r-16

Jul-1

6

Oct

-16

Jan

-17

Ap

r-17

Jul-1

7

Oct

-17

Jan

-18

Ap

r-18

Jul-1

8

Oct

-18

Rapeseed & Mustard-Black - 42% oil content : Jaipur

RM SEED

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Date: 13/11/2018 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Fundamental Report

• According to the trade sources, farmers in Gujarat are keen to

sow jeera crop in the coming days due to higher prices.

However, deficient rainfall in key producing region of Gujarat

like Saurashtra and Kutch may lower the acreage.

• According to the initial trade estimate, there may not be any

increase in the sowing area of jeera because of dry weather.

However, if the producing states receive good irrigation

facilities through dams then the sowing area could see an

increase.

• The overseas demand for Indian jeera is expected to increase as

the supply from other origins like Turkey and Syria are limited

and of poor quality due to crop damage. Although Indian jeera

is priced higher in the global market, it is drawing more buyers

because of superior quality.

• According to the market estimates, India has already exported

around 1.25 lakh tonnes of jeera so far this year and there is a

possibility of it touching a record 1.75 lakh tonnes by the end of

this fiscal year. The highest export volume was recorded at 1.55

lakh tonnes in 2014.

• Jeera arrivals in the domestic mandis this year during July-

October were higher as compare to last year. The high arrivals

can be attributed to higher prices this season compared with

last season, coupled with higher production during last year.

• As per the Ministry of Agriculture, Cumin production in India for 2017-18 is estimated at 5 lakh tonnes as against 4.95 lakh tonnes in 2016-17. According to the 4th advance estimate for Gujarat state,2017-18 production is estimated at 2.88 lakh tonnes, up by 45.5 per cent primarily on higher acreage and favourable climate. However, this year deficient rainfall in jeera producing areas may support the market in the long run.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

12-11-2018 12-11-2018 %Change

Unjha 20471.5 20430 0.20

Patan 18500 18750 -1.33

Jodhpur 21012.5 21525 -2.38

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Farmers intention to sow jeera Bearish

Lack of rainfall in jeera producing region Bullish

Lower supply from Syria and Turkey Bullish

Higher export demand Bullish

Higher arrivals in the mandis Bearish

Based on Primary & Secondary Sources

13,000.00

15,000.00

17,000.00

19,000.00

21,000.00

May

-16

Jul-1

6

Oct

-16

De

c-16

Mar

-17

May

-17

Au

g-1

7

Oct

-17

De

c-17

Mar

-18

May

-18

Au

g-1

8

Oct

-18

Cumin Seed (Jeera) - Unjha

JEERA

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Date: 13/11/2018 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Fundamental Report

• Castor spot and future prices have remained firm due to lower crop

prospectus due to dry weather conditions in Castor growing regions of

Gujarat and Rajasthan.

• As per traders, Castor seed prices are quoting at Rs 5,392 per quintal at

Deesa and are expected to trade higher towards Rs 5,800 in the coming

days. Dry weather amidst poor crop in major growing belts of Gujarat

and Rajasthan are supporting prices in the spot market.

• Castor demand is very strong and stockists, traders and farmers having

stocks with them are selling gradually at the higher rates.

• Not very much stock left as production was lower in 2017-18 and

outlook is bleak for 2018-19 as key producing centers in Gujarat have

received poor rainfall this monsoon season.

• All India Castor seed sowing as on 20th September 2018 was 8.59 lakh

hectares which is up by 5.15 per cent from last year corresponding

period area of 8.78 lakh hectares and 25% down by normal area of

corresponding period area of 8.66 lakh hectares. Lower area is

reported from the states of Telangana and Gujarat while higher acreage

is only reported from Andhra Pradesh.

• As per the Ministry of Agriculture 1st Advance Estimates for 2018-19,

Castor seed production in India is estimated at 15.17 lakh tonnes as

compared to 15.68 lakh tonnes in 2017-18. The all India Castor seed

production target for 2018-19 was 18.31 lakh tonnes.

• The final Kharif acreage under Castor in Gujarat declined to 5.33 lakh

hectares as compared to 5.95 lakh hectares last year. The normal Kharif

Castor acreage in Gujarat is 6.48 lakh hectares.

• Gujarat Agriculture Department in its first advance estimates for 2018-

19 estimated Castor crop to decline more than 20 per cent to 11.73 lakh

tonnes versus 14.84 lakh tonnes.

• As per the Solvent Extractors Association of India, Castor oil exports

declined to 38,744 tonnes in September 2018. Sluggish import demand

from China the world's largest buyer of castor oil weighed on the

overall exports from India. Japan, European countries and United

States are the other prominent buyers of Castor oil from India.

• During April-September India exported 278,426 tonnes of castor oil

compared with 333,598 tonnes a year ago. In 2017-18 (April-March),

India's total exports were pegged at 639,390 tonnes as against 556,778

tonnes the previous year.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

12-11-2018 05-11-2018 %Change

Deesa 5851 5600 4.66

Patan 5375 5225 2.87

Jodhpur 5300 5150 2.91

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Strong domestic demand in spot markets against tight supplies

Bullish

Lower crop estimates due to dry weather conditions

Bullish

Not much stock left in markets as production was lower in 2017-18

Bullish

Profit booking at higher levels Bearish

Gujarat Agriculture Department estimates 2018-19 Castor crop to decline more than 20 per cent to 11.73 lakh tonnes versus 14.84 lakh tonnes

Bullish

During April-September India exported 278,426 tonnes of castor oil as against 333,598 tonnes a year ago

Bearish

Based on Primary & Secondary Sources

3,600.00

3,900.00

4,200.00

4,500.00

4,800.00

5,100.00

5,400.00

Castor Deesa

CASTOR

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Date: 13/11/2018 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Fundamental Report

• Turmeric prices in spot and futures recovered on festive demand

mostly coming from domestic buyers. However, the export demand

has not increased as per market expectation.

• According to farmers and traders this year production in Maharashtra

can be less than last year. Deficit rainfall in Maharashtra and Karnataka

affected Turmeric standing crop. Lower rainfall reported in

Maharashtra Marathwada turmeric growing regions like Hingoli, Sangli,

Nanded, Basmat affect Turmeric standing crop.

• Local traders are likely to become active in coming days at lower price

levels as festive demand already started and cold storage stocks

reported lower.

• As per trade information, currently the all India Turmeric stocks are

reported around 23 - 24 lakh bags (1 bag = 70 kgs) as compared to last

year 31 – 33 lakh bags, down by around 27 per cent.

• Turmeric stocks in Nizamabad (both old and new crop) were estimated

around 3.80 lakh bags (1 bag = 70 kgs) as compared to around 2.70 lakh

bags same period last year. Currently, stocks reported higher as

demand (powder manufactures) shifted to Maharashtra, Duggirala and

Kadapa market due to lower prices.

• In Andhra Pradesh, Turmeric final sowing reported 18,737 hectares as

compared to 14,841 hectares in the corresponding period last year, 104%

sowing completed from season normal. Among major turmeric

growing districts, Visakhapatnam has reported 5,657 hectares in

acreage compared to last year’s 3,524 hectares, Guntur has reported

4,643 hectares in acreage compared to last year’s 4,511 hectares, YSR

Kadapa has reported 3,211 hectares in acreage compared to last year’s

2,910 hectares and Krishna has reported 2,126 hectares in acreage

compared to last year’s 1,778 hectares.

• In Telangana, final Turmeric sowing reported at 47,888 hectares as

compared to 44,956 hectares in the corresponding period last year.

Current sowing stands at 87 per cent of normal for the season. Normal

area reported 54,878 hectares.

• As per the Ministry of Agriculture, All India Turmeric production in 2017-

18 is estimated at 11.63 lakh tonnes as against 10.56 lakh tonnes

estimated in 2016-17.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

12-11-2018 05-11-2018 %Change

Nizamabad 7145 7061 1.18

Sangli 7700 7400 4.05

Erode 7600 7600 0.00

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Firm domestic demand in most of the spot markets across the country

Bullish

Expectation of lower production from Maharashtra and Karnataka due to deficient rainfall

Bullish

Lower stock availability in spot markets

Bullish

Higher Turmeric acreage in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana

Bearish

Profit booking at higher levels Bearish

Turmeric production in 2017-18 estimated at 11.63 lakh tonnes as against 10.56 lakh tonnes in 2016-17

Bearish

Based on Primary & Secondary Sources

5,500.00

6,000.00

6,500.00

7,000.00

7,500.00

8,000.00

8,500.00

Turmeric Nizamabad

TURMERIC

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Date: 13/11/2018 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

• Oilseeds market prices show

little change as MP caps payout

under Bhawantar

• India's sugar exports hit by

falling prices; govt offers

transport subsidy

• Government to procure 44 lakh

tonne of oilseeds and pulses

under the PM- AAASHA scheme

• India's y-o-y HPS groundnut

exports to decline in 2018-19,

says SEA

• Castorseed prices hit sweet spot

on low stock, bleak crop outlook

• Basmati paddy price surges 25%

on expectation of output decline

• US-China trade war: Beijing to

resume Oil meal imports from

New Delhi after 5 years

• Oil meals export decline in

October

To purchase the India Commodity

Year Book 2018, contact us at

research@ncml.com

Official Production Estimates

Fourth advance estimates 2017-18 &

previous years’ estimates: Fourth

Advance Estimates 2017-18

MINIMUM SUPPORT PRICE (Rs/Qtl.)

Commodity 2017-18 2018-19

KHARIF **NEW**

Paddy Common 1550 1750

paddy grade A 1590 1770

Jowar Hybrid 1700 2430

Jowar Maldandi 1725 2450

Bajra 1425 1950

Ragi 1900 2897

Maize 1425 1700

Tur/Arhar 5450 5675

Moong 5575 6975

Urad 5400 5600

Groundnut 4450 4890

Sunflower seed 4100 5388

Soyabean black 3050 3399

Sesamum 5300 6249

Nigerseed 4050 5877

Cotton (Medium Staple) 4020 5150

Cotton (Long Staple) 4320 5450

RABI

Commodity 2017-18 2018-19

Wheat 1735 1840

Barley 1410 1440

Gram 4400 4620

Masur (Lentil) 4250 4475

Rapeseed/Mustard 4000 4200

Safflower 4100 4945

*includes bonus of Rs 200 per quintal

# includes bonus of Rs 100 per quintal

Commodity Latest Fortnight ago Month ago Year ago

12-Nov-18 29-Oct-18 13-Oct-18 13-Nov-17

Soybean 3364 3194 3295 2760

RM seed 4260.4 4285.5 4261.1 3994.4

Turmeric 7000 7100 7100 7300

Cotton 12921.8 13122.7 13217.1 10545.6

Jeera 12200 10800 10500 9500

Castor 20471.5 19600 19850 18853.6

PRICE TRACKER

Link for commodity-wise and

market-wise prices and arrivals:

http://agmarknet.gov.in/PriceAndArriv

als/CommodityWiseDailyReport2.aspx

THE WEEK THAT WAS

*

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Date: 13/11/2018 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

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Date: 13/11/2018 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

yyy

link

NCoMM QUIZ PREVIOUS WEEK’S ANSWERS

THESE PEOPLE ANSWERED CORRECTLY!

1. Progressive procurement of rice as on 26-10-2018 is lower than the corresponding period last year.

FALSE

2. Guarseed prices have risen sharply this month due to high domestic demand and lower output expectation.

TRUE

TRUE

3. ISMA has pegged India's 2018-19 sugar production lower than last year.

Full Name Employee ID Full Name

Employee ID

1 Rakesh Kumar 1357 19 Aniketsandage 18240

2 Pawan Joshi 18275 20 Om singh

3 Kuldip Singh 1168 21 Rakesh prajapati 3608

4 Somarouthu Narendra 2037 22 Dattatray manwar 13330

5 PAWAN KUMAR 3699 23 Amol Dilip Nikam 15286

6 PRATIMA GOSWAMI 3836 24 Nikhil Thakur 2488

7 AJENDRA SINGH CHAUHAN

3785 25 Prashant Kumar Ojha

3598

8 Taufique khan 3068 26 Sumit Chahal ---

9 Rajaram Bhilare 2952 27 Nitin Laxman Tambe 18704

10 SHANMUKHA K R 3503 28 Babloo Kumar 15836

11 Rakesh Kumar Raut 3659 29 Manish Kumar Rohilla 2973

12 Srinivasu S 2310 30 Arun Kumar 17183

13 Anil kumar sharma 13108 31 Vinod Maurya 17516

14 Satyanarayan das bairagi 14582 32 Ranjit Pradhan 3205

15 Rajneesh samadhiya

3711 33 Nagina Chander Gowda

3423

16 Munesh kumar sharma

3777 34 Ansari Saddam Hussain

3753

17 V krishna --- 35 ANJALI 2359

18 shonak gupta 3770

LUCKY WINNER!

Anil Kumar Sharma

T&C, Bikaner

CONGRATULATIONS!

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Date: 13/11/2018 NCoMM

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Advisory Team

Nalin Rawal Head: CWIG Nalin.r@ncml.com

Sreedhar Nandam Vice President: SCM sreedhar.n@ncml.com

Research Team

Suresh Solanki Assistant Manager: TCIG suresh.s@ncml.com

Rajiv Kumar Associate: TCIG rajiv.ku@ncml.com

Akash Jaiswal Research Analyst: TCIG akash.j@ncml.com

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