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25th June, 2019
COTTON|SUGAR|CASTOR |RM SEED
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All India Weather Status
Last week all India Rainfall status: 13th June 2019 to 19th June 2019
• Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Tripura, West Bengal, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu &
Kashmir, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Goa, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka and Kerala States received deficit
rainfall
• Jharkhand, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Tamilnadu
states received the large Deficit rainfall
• Gujarat and Haryana states received the excess rainfall
• Sikkim and Rajasthan state received the large excess rainfall
• Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram and Punjab states received the normal rainfall
During the week, rainfall was below Long Period Average (LPA) by 40% over the country as a whole.
Seasonal all India Rainfall status: 1st June 2019 to 24th June 2019.
• Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, West Bengal, Jharkhand,
Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh,
Gujarat, Goa, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Kerala states
received the deficit rainfall.
• Jammu & Kashmir state received the excess rainfall
• Sikkim, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh states received Normal rainfall.
For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during 1st June 2019 to 24th June 2019 was below LPA by 37% over the
country as a whole.
Weather Forecast:
• Above normal rainfall activity likely to occur over Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Kerala, Karnataka,
Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and southern parts of East Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Odisha; and below normal to
normal rainfall activity likely over remaining parts of the country
• There is likely increase in maximum temperature over most of the country except south Peninsular India and Jammu & Kashmir, where
these are likely to be below normal during week
All India Reservoir Status: as on 20th June 2019
Central Water Commission is monitoring live storage status of 91
reservoirs of the country on weekly basis and is issuing weekly bulletin
on every Thursday. The total live storage capacity of these 91 reservoirs
is 161.993 BCM which is about 63% of the live storage capacity of 257.812
BCM which is estimated to have been created in the country. As per
reservoir storage bulletin dated 20.06.2019, live storage available in
these reservoirs is 27.265 BCM, which is 17% of total live storage capacity
of these reservoirs. However, last year the live storage available in these
reservoirs for the corresponding period was 29.699 BCM and the
average of last 10 years live storage was 29.194 BCM. Thus, the live
storage available in 91 reservoirs as per 20.06.2019 Bulletin is 92% of the
live storage of corresponding period of last year and 93% of storage of
average of last ten years.
Source: IMD, DAC&FW and CWC
Current Crop Scenario Current Crop Scenario
Gram Change in Acreage: 96.59 lakh ha area coverage has been reported compared to normal 89.45 lakh ha. Current Scenario: The crop has been harvested. Production:According to AGCON Research, Gram production for the year 2018-19 is estimated to be 81 lakh MT, whereas 2nd advance estimate of the Govt. of India is 103 lakh MT
COTTON
Sowing of Cotton has completed in Punjab and Haryana and is ongoing in irrigated areas
of Karnataka, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Maharashtra. In both
locations where sowing has completed and is in process the crop is in emerge stage to
vegetative stage. Rainfall received in 3rd week of June-2019 was beneficial to the crop.
There are high chances of increase in cotton acreage as good market prices were
realized in last three years.
PADDY
The Paddy nursery is currently is being sown. The farmer has cultivated the field after
harvest of rabi crop. Scanty rainfall received in 3rd week of June 2019 was beneficial to
Paddy nursery and rainfall received in May-19 in North India was beneficial in preparation
of the field. Farmers areinterested in cultivating Paddy cropbecause good yield and
market price were realized last year.
SOYBEAN
Soybean is the major oilseed crop. Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan are
the major Soybean producing States of India. The farmer has prepared the field for
sowing the crop. Sowing will start in second fortnight of June.
Fundamental Analysis- COTTON
• Cotton prices remained weak in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and
Karnataka tracking decline in the global cotton markets. Despite
the downfall there were no buyers in the domestic spot market
and are likely to come forward in the market only by end July with
quality cotton till then the markets may remain weak.
• According to Southern India Mills Association, domestic spinning
mills are inclined to import and save costs; domestic traders are
likely to have contracted import of 22 lakh bale of cotton over the
past few months far higher than the usual. However, it is hard for
small and medium enterprises to import, as they may not have
the financial muscle to buy and store.
• The tardy progress of the monsoon has raised worries over the
prevailing drought situation in several states, with the overall
monsoon rainfall deficiency increasing to 44 per cent across the
country. The IMD recorded 46.1 millimetres of rainfall from June 1
to June 18 as against the normal rainfall of 82.4 millimetres.
Central India is the hardest hit by monsoon's delay. The region
has a rain deficit of over 57 percent.
• As per the Cotton Association of India cotton crop sowing is
delayed by two weeks in the cotton growing states like Andhra
Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka and central India like Madhya
Pradesh and Maharashtra. As per Ministry of Agriculture acreage
under cotton was 15.32 lakh hectares so far lower than 17 lakh
hectares from a year ago.
• As per the 3rd Advance Estimates released by Ministry of
Agriculture, Cotton production could decline to 27.59 million
bales (170 kg each) in 2018-19 from 32.80 million bales in the
previous year.
• Cotton Association of India estimated cotton crop at 315 lakh
bales down from the previous year's output of 365 lakh bales. The
total cotton supply estimated by the CAI during the period from
October 2018 to May 2019 is 325 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each which
consists of the arrivals of 287.72 lakh bales upto 31st May 2019,
imports of 9.28 lakh bales upto 31st May 2019 and the opening
stock at the beginning of the season on 01st October 2018 at 28
lakh bales.
• China's cotton plantation area is stable this year. A total of 3.21
million hectares of cotton has been planted this year. This year
the acreage is higher by 12.63 per cent from previous 2.85 million
hectares in 2018 and produced 26.5 million Bales of 480 lb.
(350.73 Lakh Bales of 170kg each).
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
LOCATION 24-06-2019 17-06-2019 %Change
Kadi (29 mm)
12823 12865 -0.32
Akola (long staple)
12645 12588 0.45
Abohar (Medium staple)
12100 12156 -0.46
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Subdued demand in domestic spot markets across the country
Bearish
Domestic traders are likely to have contracted import of 22 lakh bale of cotton over the past few months
Bullish
Delay in monsoon rainfall in major cotton growing belts of India
Bullish
Acreage under cotton at 15.32 lakh hectares so far lower than 17 lakh hectares from a year ago
Bullish
Domestic Cotton production could decline to 27.59 million bales (170 kg each) in 2018-19 from 32.80 million bales in the previous year
Bullish
Based on Primary & Secondary Sources
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
13,000
13,500
14,000
Cotton 29 mm: Kadi (Rs./Quintal)
Fundamental Analysis- SUGAR
• Higher Sugar stocks availability against subdued demand in
domestic spot markets across the county kept Sugar prices
weak.
• As per the Bombay Sugar Merchants
associationSugarpriceswereatRs3,190 to 3,252per quintal for
S-gradeandatRs3,238-3,342per quintal for M-grade in Mumbai.
• Asper trade sources, despite sugarproduction in the next
seasonmight be lower comparedwith the current
onetheproblemof sugar glutis notgoing
awayanytimesoonsimply because the supplyfarexceeds the
demand and exports invariablyfall short of thetargets.
• The Indian sugar Mills Association (ISMA) is proposing an
export target of 7 million tonnes for the 2019-20 (October-
September) season, up from estimated exports of 3.5 million
tonnes in 2018-19.The government has set an export target of 5
million tonnes for 2018-19.Sugar inventories are likely to rise to
14.7 million tonnes at the beginning of the new season on 01st
October, up 37.4 per cent from a year ago period.
• As per Industry sources, India’s sugar production could fall as
much as 15 per cent in 2019-20 to a 3 year low at 28 million
tonnes.Therewasa glut inthe international market
too.Theseason whichisclosing nowwhich isontill
30thofSeptember2019 alsoshowed a surplus ofabout 4-4.5
million tonnes intheinternational market.
• The Centrehas fixed the monthly sugar sale quota higher for
June at 25lakh tonne against 21lakh tonnein May.While
marketparticipants wereexpecting alowerquota than May.
• As per the 3rd Advance Estimates of major crops released by the
Ministry of Agriculture, with an increase by 20.46 million tonnes
over 2017-18, total production of Sugarcane in the country
during 2018-19 is estimated at record 400.37 million tonnes.
Moreover, the production of sugarcane during 2018-19 is higher
by 50.59 million tonnes than the average sugarcane production
of 349.78 million tonnes.
• According to International Sugar Organization (ISO)Global
sugar production in 2018-19 (October-September) was seen at
178.75 million tonnes, marginally above a previous projection of
178.68 million, with a decrease in output in Brazil helping to
limit the extent of the rise.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
Location 24-06-2019 17-06-2019 %
Change
Kolhapur 3155 3153 0.06
Kanpur 3352 3367 -0.44
Muzaffar Nagar 3253 3276 -0.70
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Subdued domestic demand from mills, stockists and traders
Bearish
Higher availability of Sugar stocks in domestic markets
Bearish
Indian Sugar Mills Association proposing an export target of 7 million tonnes
Bullish
Industry sources expecting sugar production to decline by 15 per cent in 2019-20
Bullish
Sugarcane in 2018-19 estimated at record 400.37 million tonnes
Bearish
ISO estimating higher Global sugar production in 2018-19 at 178.75 million tonnes
Bearish
Based on Primary & Secondary Sources
2,800
2,900
3,000
3,100
3,200
3,300
3,400
Sugar: Kolhapur
Fundamental Analysis- CASTOR
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
Location 24-06-2019 17-06-2019 %Change
Deesa 5445.6 5392.1 0.99
Patan 5235 5210 0.48
Rajkot 5050 5175 -2.42
• Open Interest to stock ratio in NCDEX of castor seed is in comfortable
position. Higher availability of castor might push prices downward.
• According to latest sowing report, all India Castor sowing is reported
0.02 lakh hectares which is 71.42 per cent lower than last year acreage
of 0.07 lakh hectares. In Gujarat, castor sowing is yet to be started but
according to the trade sources, castor sowing acreage might increase
this year as compare to last year due to good price of castor
throughout last year. Expectation of higher sowing acreage in the
coming season might put downward pressure on the castor prices.
• However, new crop arrival will come after six months and exports of
oil will depend upon the present stock of castor.
• Escalating trade battle between the US and China has impacted
India’s castor oil exports adversely as exports of the commodity have
gone down to 45.897 thousand MT in April 2019 from 50.312 thousand
MT in April 2018 which is 8.8 percent lower.Moreover, as per trade
sources, castor oil exports in May 2019 is 42.862 thousand MT against
65.545 thousand MT last year.
• As prices have fallen in the domestic market, farmers have started
holding their crop as they are expecting to get higher prices in the
coming months. According to the AGMARK data, all India castor crop
arrivals in the fourth week of June is reported at 5.299 Thousand MT
which is 30.49 percent lower than the third week of June 2019 arrivals
of 7.623 Thousand MT.
• As per the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA), all India
castor seed production estimate for 2018-19 is 11.27 Lakh MT which is
21.35 per cent lower than the 2017-18 production estimate of 14.33
Lakh MT. However, according to the AGCON, castor production
estimate is 9.13 Lakh MT for 2018-19. Lower production is due to
lower sowing coverage acreage and lower yield expectation in major
producing states of castor like Rajasthan and Gujarat.
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
High Open interest to stock ratio Bearish
Expectation of higher sowing acreage in the coming season
Bearish
Lower export demand of castor oil from China
Bearish
Lower arrivals of castor in the domestic mandis
Bullish
Lower production estimate for 2018-19
Bullish
Based on Primary & Secondary Sources
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
De
c-1
7
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-1
8
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-1
8
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-1
8
De
c-1
8
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Castor-Small : Deesa
Fundamental Analysis- RM SEED
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Lower crushing of mustard seed by millers
Bearish
Lower arrivals of mustard crop in the mandis
Bullish
Procurement of mustard crop by government
Bullish
Higher stocks with market participants
Bearish
Higher production estimate as compare to last year
Bearish
Lower mustard meal exports Bearish
Based on Primary & Secondary Sources
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
Location 24-06-2019 17-06-2019 %Change
Jaipur 4072.9 4100 -0.66
ALWAR 4070.05 4102.25 -0.78
SRI GANGA NAGAR
3900 3912.5 -0.32
• According to the trade sources,mills across the country crushed
7.5 lakh MT of mustard seeds in May 2019, 16.7% lower from last
year in the same time period. Lower crushing is due to the lower
arrivals in the domestic mandis.All India arrivals of the new crop
were at 1.15 million MT in May which is 67.60 per cent lower than
the arrivals of 3.55 million MT a year ago.
• Lower arrivals of mustard in the domestic mandis are due to
prevailing lower prices in the market. Prices of mustard are
hovering below the government's minimum support price of
4,200 Rs per quintal in most of the physical markets.
• However, procurement activity at MSP by government is giving
support to the mustard prices.As on 21stJune 2019, NAFED had
procured 5.85 Lakh MT in Rajasthan, 2.51 lakh MT from Haryana
,1.82 lakh MT from Madhya Pradesh ,0.34 Lakh MT from Gujarat
and 0.06 Lakh MT from UP. Total procurement reached around
10.54 lakh MT.
• According to the trade sources, mustard stocks in the starting of
May with farmers, processors, stockists and state-run agencies
were at 5.5 million MT which is 25.0 per cent higher than last year
stock of 4.4 million MT.
• MOPA has estimated all India mustard output at 8.1 million MT in
2018-19, compared with around 7.1 million MT in the previous
year. However, this estimate is lower than the government third
advance estimate of 8.8 million MT in 2018-19, as well
as 8.4 million MT pegged last year.
• According to the trade sources, NAFED is considering fixing a
selling reserve price for mustard like the way benchmark rates is
fixed in case of wheat and rice under open market sale scheme.
Mustard procurement at MSP of Rs 4200 per quintal started by
NAFED began from March 15 and is scheduled to continue till
June 30 and they may start selling the crop at a profit margin
after procurement is over.
• India’s mustard meal exports in the month of May 2019 were
19.519 thousand MT (provisional), lower against 120.630
thousand MT in April 2019. Total exports of rapeseed meal from
April 2019 to May 2019 were 1.40 lakh MT which is 39.65 percent
lower than 2018-19 exports of 2.32 lakh MT in the same time
period. Average FoB price of mustard meal in the month of May
is $218 per tonne which is lower than the FoB price of April of
$220 per tonne.
3,200
3,700
4,200
4,700
5,200
5,700
Sep
-16
No
v-1
6
Jan
-17
Mar
-17
May
-17
Jul-
17
Sep
-17
No
v-1
7
Jan
-18
Mar
-18
May
-18
Jul-
18
Sep
-18
No
v-1
8
Jan
-19
Mar
-19
May
-19
Jul-
19
Rapeseed & Mustard-Black - 42%
• Tur dal price jumps 20% in past 2 months,
hits Rs 100/kg in retail
• Cashew cultivation being extended to
Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan
• Varying cotton crop numbers put traders
in a tizzy
• 34.06 million tonnes of wheat procured
• Vayu-triggered rain lifts prospects of
groundnut sowing in Gujarat
• Hike in import duty expected to boost
domestic processing of cashews
• Delayed monsoon slows Kharif sowing
• Cashew import prices hiked by 280% to
support domestic producers
• Socks of pulses and grains
• SOMA reiterates demand for export
incentives on groundnut
• To purchase the India Commodity Year
Book 2019, contact us at
The Week That Was!
Official Production Estimates
Third advance estimates 2018-19& previous years’ estimates: Fourth Advance Estimates 2017-18
Link for commodity-wise and
market-wise prices and arrivals:
http://agmarknet.gov.in/PriceAndArrival
s/CommodityWiseDailyReport2.aspx
MINIMUM SUPPORT PRICE (Rs/Qtl.)
Commodity 2017-18 2018-19 KHARIF **NEW**
Paddy Common 1550 1750
paddy grade A 1590 1770
Jowar Hybrid 1700 2430
Jowar Maldandi 1725 2450
Bajra 1425 1950
Ragi 1900 2897
Maize 1425 1700
Tur/Arhar 5450 5675
Moong 5575 6975
Urad 5400 5600
Groundnut 4450 4890
Sunflower seed 4100 5388
Soyabean black 3050 3399
Sesamum 5300 6249
Nigerseed 4050 5877
Cotton (Medium Staple) 4020 5150
Cotton (Long Staple) 4320 5450
RABI
Commodity 2017-18 2018-19
Wheat 1735 1840
Barley 1410 1440
Gram 4400 4620
Masur (Lentil) 4250 4475
Rapeseed/Mustard 4000 4200
Safflower 4100 4945
*includes bonus of Rs 200 per quintal
# includes bonus of Rs 100 per quintal
Commodity Latest Fortnight ago
Month ago
Year ago
24-June-19 10-June-19 25-May-19 24-June-18
soybean 3723 3790 3869 3515
RM seed 3900 3900 3900 3980
Sugar 3407 3481 3504 3238
Cotton 12823 12872 12570 13041
Jeera 17437 17476 17623 17188
Castor 5445.6 5525.5 5794 4065
PRICE TRACKER
Crop Division Preliminary report on area coverage under Kharif crops as on 21-6-2019
Area : In lakh hectare
S.no Crop Normal
Area (DES)
Normal of corresponding
week
Area sown Increase (+)/Decrease (-) over
2019 2018 Normal of
Corresponding week
2018
1 Rice 396.5 7.39 6.3 9.24 -1.09 -2.95
2 Pulses 119.89 5.45 1.7 3.38 -3.74 -1.68
a Arhar 43 1.93 0.41 0.92 -1.52 -0.5
b Urdbean 30.77 0.79 0.32 0.51 -0.47 -0.19
c Moongbean 27.5 1.7 0.31 1.02 -1.39 -0.72
d Kulthi 2.19 0.05 0 0.06 -0.05 -0.06
e Other pulses 16.44 0.97 0.66 0.87 -0.31 -0.21
3 Coarse cereals 188.39 11.41 7.4 9.58 -4 -2.18
a Jowar 21.61 1.46 0.66 1.16 -0.8 -0.51
b Bajra 74.39 1.29 0.23 0.48 -1.06 -0.24
c Ragi 11.53 0.97 1.09 1.08 0.12 0.01
d Small millets 6.18 0.61 0.6 0.66 -0.01 -0.06
e Maize 74.68 7.07 4.82 6.2 -2.25 -1.37
4 Oil seed 181.96 7.69 1.6 3.47 -6.09 -1.87
a Groundnut 4244 2.74 0.59 1.44 -2.15 -0.85
b Soybean 111.49 3.93 0.53 1.24 -3.39 -0.71
c Sunflower 1.84 0.29 0.19 0.19 -0.11 -0.01
d Sesamum 14.13 0.64 0.27 0.51 -0.37 -0.24
e Niger 2.41 0.01 0 0.02 -0.01 -0.02
f Castor 9.66 0.08 0.02 0.07 -0.06 -0.05
5 Sugarcane 48.32 47.22 49.35 50.68 2.13 -1.33
6 Jute & Mesta 7.87 7.06 6.08 6.52 -0.98 -0.44
7 Cotton 120.93 19.34 18.18 20.68 -1.16 -2.5
TOTAL 1063.61 105.56 90.62 103.55 -14.94 -12.94
1 What will be the Open market sale scheme price of wheat in second quarter?
Rs 2135
2 According to the Third advance crop estimates, Kharif Rice production for 2018-19 is estimated at……….million tonnes?
101 .75 mill ion tonnes
3 As per WASDE report Global Soybean product ion for 2019 -20 is l ikely to remain at …………….mil l ion tonnes?
355.4 mil l ion tonnes
AGCON QUIZ ANSWERS OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK
THESE PEOPLE ANSWERED CORRECTLY!
S.No Name Dept. Location
1 Mr. Anilkumar Parvathaneni Risk Gurgaon
2 Mr. S.Nafees S&P Raichur
3 Mr.SHRIKANT PATIL S&P GULBARGA
4 Mr.JAI KUMAR CM AMRITSAR
5 Ms.Pratima
Goswami Mktyard Gurgaon
6 Mr. Basant Vaid SCM Gurgaon
AdvisoryTeam
Nalin Rawal Head [email protected]
Sreedhar Nandam Vice President [email protected]
S. Anisul Hassan Head - Business Development [email protected]
Research Team
Ankur Gupta Data Scientist [email protected]
MukeshUpamanyu Agri Analyst [email protected]
Suresh Solanki Assistant Manager [email protected]
Akash Jaiswal Research Analyst [email protected]
Ratanpriya Assistant Manager [email protected]
Nahalaxmi. J Client Service Executive [email protected]
Shefali Jain Operation Executive [email protected]
Rajiv Kumar Associate [email protected]
Ms. Pratima Gowsami
Mktyard - Gurgaon
CONGRATULATIONS !
NAME of the LUCKY WINNER
Disclaimer:
This consultancy report has been prepared by NCML AGRI BUSINESS CONSULTANTS PRIVATE LIMITED for the sole benefit of the
addressee. Neither the report nor any part of the report shall be provided to third parties without the written consent of AGCON. Any
third party in possession of the report may not rely on its conclusions without the written consent of AGCON. AGCON has exercised
reasonable care and skill in preparation of this consultancy report but has not independently verified information provided by others.
No other warranty, express or implied, is made in relation to this report. Therefore, AGCON assumes no liability for any loss resulting
from errors, omissions or misrepresentations made by others. Any recommendations, opinions and findings stated in this report are
based on circumstances and facts as they existed at the time of preparation of this report. Any change in circumstances and facts on
which this report is based may adversely affect any recommendations, opinions or findings contained in this report.
© NCML AGRI BUSINESS CONSULTANTS PRIVATE LIMITED (AGCON) 2019
