Module 7 VAA

7/29/2019 Module 7 VAA

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Climate Change: Vulnerability

and Adaptation Assessment

Dr. Rosa T. Perez

Enabling the Cities of Cagayan de Oro and Iligan to Cope with Climate Change

(Project Climate Twin Phoenix)

Tagaytay City

7-11 January 2013


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Outline

Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment

Introduction and Overview

Basic concepts and definitions

Assessment tools (e.g., characteristics, limitations,

procedures/methodologies)

Case presentation/studies


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Global Warming (1884 to 2011)

Source: NASA


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WMO Press ReleaseNo. 966 - 2012: Record Arctic Sea Ice Melt, Multiple Extremes and High

TemperaturesGENEVA/DOHA, 28 November 2012 (WMO)The

years 20012011 were all among the warmest on record, and,according to the World Meteorological Organization, the first ten months indicate

that 2012 will most likely be no exception despite the cooling influence of La Nia

early in the year.WMOs provisional annual statement on the state of the global climate also

highlighted the unprecedented melt of the Arctic sea ice and multiple weather andclimate extremes which affected many parts of the world. It was released today to

inform negotiators at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Doha,

Qatar.

January-October 2012 has been the ninth warmestsuch period since records began in 1850. The global land and ocean surfacetemperature for the period was about 0.45C (0.81F) above the corresponding

19611990 average of 14.2C, according to the statement.

Source: http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/index_en.html
http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/documents/966_WMOstatement.pdfhttp://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/documents/966_WMOstatement.pdf


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WARMER WORLD

precipitationconcentrated into

more intense events

longer periods of little

precipitation in between

Intense, heavy downpoursinterspersed with longer

relatively dry periods

Modelling studies: future tropical

cyclonescould become moresevere, with greater wind speeds,

more intense precipitation

Climate Change 2007: Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis


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Potential Impacts in Key sectors in SE Asia

Source: ADB,2009


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5

2

3

1

4

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Linkages: Anthropogenic drivers, impacts of and

responses to climate change

Source: IPCC (AR4 SYR), 2007


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Actions to address Climate Change

IPCC-TAR, 2001


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Vulnerability, Adaptation, and

Mitigation

Vulnerability:

the combined measure of threats to a

particular system.

the degree to which a system is susceptible toor unable to cope with the adverse effects of

climate change, including climate variability and

extremes (Mc Carthy et al., 2001).


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Mitigation

Adaptation:

the ability of a system to adjust to climate change inorder to reduce its vulnerability, and enhance the

resilience to observed and anticipated impacts ofclimate change.

'adjustment in natural or human systems to a new or

changing environment. Adaptation to climate change

refers to adjustment in natural or human systems in

response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their

effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial

opportunities'.


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Mitigation

Adaptation occurs in physical, ecological, and humansystems. It involves the following.

Changes in social and environmental processes

Perceptions of climate risk

Practices and functions to reduce risk Exploration of new opportunities to cope with the

changed environment

Mitigation: Mitigation refers to any strategy or action

taken to remove the GHGs released into the atmosphere,

or to reduce their amount.


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Concepts and Frameworks


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A VULNERABILITYFramework


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A Burning Example

Sensitivity Fair skinned

Deeper skin tones

Exposure

Strength of the suns rays:f(latitude, season and weatherconditions)

Number of hours under the sun

Adaptive capacity Protective clothing

Sunscreen

Tanning

pennmedicine.org


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Vulnerability as defined by IPCC

(IPCC, 2007; IPCC, 2001; McCarthy and Others, 2001)

A function of

sensitivity of aparticular system

to climate

changes, its

exposure to

those changes

and its capacity

to adapt to

those changes


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Components of Vulnerability

Exposure: nature and degree to which a system is exposed tosignificant climatic variations

Sensitivity: degree to which a system is affected, either adverselyor beneficially, by climate variability or change. The effect may be

direct (e.g., a change in crop yield in response to a change in themean, range or variability of temperature) or indirect (e.g.,damages caused by an increase in the frequency of coastal floodingdue to sea level rise).

Adaptive Capacity: The ability of a system to adjust to climate

change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderatepotential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to copewith the consequences.

IPCC AR4, TAR WG2


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Exposure

Essentially answer the question of who or what is at risk toclimate change (i.e., what is exposedto climate change) andthe change in climate. So, it includes:

The population (e.g., people, species) that can be affected by

climate change Settlements and infrastructure that can be affected by climate

change

Natural resources that can be affected by climate change

The nature of climate change itself ( e.g., change in sea level,temperature, extreme events).


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Impact (1)

Typically means the effect of climate change.

For biophysical systems it can be change in

productivity, quality, or population numbers or range.

For societal systems, impact can be measured aschange in value (e.g., gain or loss of income) or in

morbidity, mortality, or other measure of well-being

(Parry and Carter, 1998).


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Impact (2)

The effects may be direct or indirect:

Direct (e.g., a change in crop yield in response to a

change in the mean, range, or variability of

temperature) Indirect (e.g., damages caused by an increase in the

frequency of coastal flooding due to sea-level rise)

(McCarthy et al., 2001, p. 6).


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Sensitivity

Sensitivityis defined by the IPCC as the degree towhich a system is affected, either adversely orbeneficially, by climate-related stimuli.

Climate-related stimuli encompass all of the elementsof climate change, including mean climatecharacteristics, climate variability, and the frequencyand magnitude of extremes.


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Examples of sensitivities: human health

Severely degraded or collapsed health care system Poor and declining immunity, nutritional and health status of large portion

of population

High poverty rates that limit access to health care - Lack of disease

surveillance, vector control and prevention programs

Large portion of population lose reliable access to potable water andsanitation

Land use changes, including new reservoirs that increase habitat for

disease vectors

Limited access to health care Lacking disease surveillance, vector control and disease prevention

Malnutrition

Drug resistance


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V = f (E, S, AC)

Used in MDG-F and Sectoral VA Mainstreaming

Guidelines (Cabrido et al.)


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Changes in mean climate,

variability, extreme events

and sea level rise

Effects on livelihoods Impact on vulnerability

Increased temperature and

changes in precipitation

reduces agricultural and

natural resources

Changes in precipitation run-

off and variability leads to

greater water stressIncreased incidence or

intensity of climate related

extremes such as water

stress

Temperature, water and

vegetation changes resultingin increasing prevalence of

disease

Direct impacts of climatic

shocks and stresses such as

livelihood assets, health,

food and water security

Increased pressure onCoping strategies and social

protection measures

Reduced ability to recover

due to increased frequency

of climatic shocks orincreased intensity of

climatic stresses

Increased vulnerability due

to:

Lower capacity to prepare;

Lower capacity to cope;

and

Lower capacity to recover

from climatic and non-climatic shocks and stresses

Source: DFID,2004


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Risk = Hazard x Exposure x Vulnerability

lack of capacity of community to

prepare, absorb, recover from hazardVulnerability

elements affected by hazardExposure

physical impact of disturbanceHazard

likelihood of harm, loss, disasterRisk

UN Disaster Risk =f(HEV)

Adaptive Capacity


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Exposure

Sensitivity

Adaptive Capacity

Hazard

Exposure

Vulnerability(Inherent Vulnerability)

Adaptive Capacity

IPCC Vulnerability UN Risk

NOTE: Not a strict correspondence but a rough mapping to facilitate linking of

understanding of frameworks.

Reconciling Frameworks

climate change adaptation

climate change mitigationdisaster mitigation


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Major

decision

contexts forVulnerability

Assessments

1. Specification of

mitigation

strategies

2. Identification of

who or what arevulnerable

3. Recommendationof adaptation

measures


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Why do we conduct a Vulnerability and

Adaptation Assessment

Meant to serve the needs of the relevantstakeholders, rather than the researcher

or analyst

Designed to provide information useful tostakeholders to understand vulnerability toclimate change and adaptation options


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Why do we conduct a Vulnerability and

Adaptation Assessment

Use models or other tools (e.g. GIS maps)only as means of providing useful

information to stakeholders

Begin by identifying the questionsstakeholders would like to have avulnerability and adaptation assessmentanswer


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Issues to Consider When Beginning a

Vulnerability Assessment

General

Process and

ScopeBudget and

Political Support

Technical-Time Frame

- Approaches Stakeholders


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General Process and Scope (1)

How much time is available for the assessment? On which planning areas do you want to focus the

assessment? (What is of concern?)

Is it food production, water supply, health? Concerns may be expressed not in climate terms, e.g.,

extreme temperature, but in consequences of climate for

people, e.g., drought, flood, malnutrition.

Who will perform the assessment?


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General Process and Scope (2)

Do you have the technical capacity to perform it in-house?

If outsourcing the assessment, what is the procedure

that must be followed for hiring a contractor?

What questions do you want the assessment to

answer?

Which specific decisions do you want the assessment

to support?


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Budget and Political Support

What resources are available?What is your budget for the assessment?

How big a staff is available? Can consultants be used?

What expertise is available either on staff or through

consulting?Who will manage the assessment process

and budget?

How much time is available?Do you have political support for the

assessment?


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Technical

Will any model(s) be developed for the assessment?

Will the local government be able to operate the modelfor future scenario analysis?

What type of scenarios does the community want tomodel? (Best case? Worst case? Middle-of-the-road?)

Who may be affected?

How far into the future is of concern?

For what purpose is the assessment to be used? Raising awareness (education)?

Policy making?

What kind of output is needed?


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Approaches to Assessment

The approach chosen, i.e., the framework and the applicationof specific models or other tools, should best answer thequestions posed by the stakeholders within the resource and

time constraints

The choice of approach or models should be based in part onwhich ones best answer the questions being asked and can beused within available constraints.


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Time Frame (1)

The time frame being examined is a very important

matter.

If there is more interest in understanding impacts ofclimate change, then the analysis ought to look over

many decades, perhaps out to 2100


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Time Frame (2)

If there is more interest in current vulnerability or

adaptation strategies, then the analysis should focus

on the next few decades up to about 2050.

The near future could be defined as 2020 and the far futureas 2050.

This is generally because most policy makers would have

difficulty planning for more than a few decades and some

might even have difficulty planning for a few decades intothe future.


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Stakeholder Consultation

Stakeholders should be involved throughout the

process.

In particular, they should be involved in determining

what will be examined, what adaptations should beconsidered, and in evaluating results.

For some sets of stakeholders, it may not be important

who does the analysis, as long as the stakeholders

trust that it is being done well.


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Stakeholder Consultation

Other stakeholders may wish to take an active role

in conducting the analysis or have people they trust

(e.g., have worked with previously) conduct the

research.

Either ways, it is important to keep stakeholders

involved, at least by keeping them informed about

progress and interim results.


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Stakeholders Analysis


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Vulnerability assessment (1)

A vulnerability assessment is the process of

identifying, quantifying, and prioritizing (or ranking)

the vulnerabilities in a system.

Examples of systems for which vulnerabilityassessments are performed include, but are not

limited to, information technology systems, energy

supply systems, water supply systems,

transportation systems, and communication

systems.


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Vulnerability assessment (2)

Such assessments may be conducted on behalf of a

range of different organizations, from small

businesses up to large regional infrastructures.

Vulnerability from the perspective of disastermanagement means assessing the threats from

potential hazards to the population and to

infrastructure. It may be conducted in the political,

social, economic or environmental fields.

Evolution of CC Vulnerability Assessments


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Evolution of CC Vulnerability Assessments

FROM TO

Linear More complex chains of analysis

Non-adaptive to

perfectly adaptive

Realistically adaptive agents

Simplistic to

sophisticated

Pluralistic consideration of

development pathways

Strictly quantitative Quantitative and qualitative

analyses

Purely science-driven Policy-driven assessmentsThose that dictate users Those that involve those users in

the actual assessments


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1. Need to address cross cutting issues (e.g. sustainabledevelopment, equity and scientific uncertainties)

2. Changes in climate variability and extremes asdeterminants of future impacts and vulnerabilities

3. Interactions of climate change with other stresses on

environment and society

4. Need for adaptation measures to lessen the risk of

damage from future climate change and current climate

variability

Why the shift?

Li k A th i d i i t f d


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5

2

3

1

4

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Linkages: Anthropogenic drivers, impacts of and

responses to climate change


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Fussel and Klein, 2006


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Figure 2-2 Conceptual framework for climate change impacts, vulnerability, disaster risks and adaptation options (source: EEA, 2010a; ETC-ACC, 2010b).

D t i t f V l bilit


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Human health and life

Existence and cultural identity

Biodiversity and ecosystem servicesIncome and livelihood

SYSTEM

ATTRIBUTE OF

CONCERN

A human environment system

Geographic region

Economic sectorNatural system

HAZARDExternalclimate change, floods

Internalunsustainable farming practices

TIME SCALECurrent

Future

Determinants of Vulnerability

Information on vulnerability, exposure, and changing climate


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Asset relocation

Weather/climate -proofing assets

Early warning systems

poverty reduction

better education and

awareness

sustainable development

improved forecasting for

warning systems

reduction of greenhouse

gas emissions

y p g gextremes and climate hazards can together inform

adaptation and disaster risk management

IPCC-SREX, 2012


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Approaches

Sectoral

Multi sectoral approach

Cross sectoral (integrated)

Sectoral Vulnerability and Adaptation


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Sectoral Vulnerability and Adaptation

Assessment

Analysis on how a specific sector can be affected byclimate change. Sectoral adaptation measures aim atactions for individual sectors that could be affected byclimate change. For example, in agriculture, reduced

rainfall and higher evaporation rates would call fornew means of irrigation practices. Such a change wouldrequire a national policy framework which integratestraditional coping mechanisms along with new practices,

and emphasizes on the importance of including climatechange as a long term consideration while formulatingpolicies.



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This approach aims at actions that draw from

various sectors. It is like looking at a particular

problem through different lenses. It cuts across

various sectors, for example, integrated waterresources management (IWRM), river basins or

coastal zones. Linking adaptation to climate change,

with management options identified in various

conventions, could serve as a multi-sectoralapproach.

Cross sectoral


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Cross sectoral

This is an integrated measure which looks at the

objective in a very holistic manner. For example,

science, research and development, and

technological innovations such as the developmentof drought-resistant crop varieties, or new

technologies to combat saltwater intrusion.

Key Steps for Assessing Vulnerability to


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Climate Change

Determineobjectives

and scope

Identify audience, user requirements, and needed products

Engage key internal and external stakeholders

Establish and agree on goals and objectives

Identify suitable assessment targets

Determine appropriate spatial and temporal scales

Select assessment approach based on targets, user needs, and

available resources

Gather

relevant data

and expertise

Review existing literature on assessment targets and climate

impacts

Reach out to subject experts on target species or systemsObtain or develop climatic projections, focusing on ecologically

relevant variables

and suitable spatial and temporal scales

Obtain or develop ecological response projections



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Climate Change

Assesscomponents

of

vulnerability

Evaluate climate sensitivity of assessment targets Determine likely exposure of targets to climatic/ecological

change

Consider adaptive capacity of targets that can moderate

potential impact

Estimate overall vulnerability of targets

Document level of confidence or uncertainty in assessments

Apply

assessment in

adaptationplanning

Explore why specific targets are vulnerable to inform possible

adaptation responses

Consider how targets might fare under various management andclimatic scenarios Share assessment results with stakeholders and decision-makers

Use results to advance development of adaptation strategies and

plans


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Sectoral Vulnerabilities

Agriculture and Food Security

Watershed and Forestry

Coastal Sector

Human Health

Source: SNC,2010


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Agriculture and Food Security

Historical value added (GVA*) in

agriculture (palay, corn, coconut and

sugarcane (1967-2008)

Gross Value Added (GVA) in Agriculture

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

6 7 6 9 7 1 7 3 7 5 7 7 7 9 8 1 8 3 8 5 8 7 8 9 9 1 9 3 9 5 9 7 9 9 01 0 3 0 5 0 7

Y E A R

G

VA

(inMillionPesos)

Palay

Corn

Coconut

Sugarcane

GVA is defined as the difference between gross output and the immediate inputs,

with gross outputs of a production unit during a given period

PHILIPPINES

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

YEAR

YIELD

(MT/Ha)

IRRIGATED RAINFED

Annual yields (mt/ha) from rainfed

and irrigated rice systems in the

Philippines (1970-2008)Source: BAS,

P j t d Ri Yi ld


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Projected Rice Yield

Source: IRRI, 2009


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Forestry and Watershed

Vulnerability = f(sensitivity

due to topography, slopes,

elevation)

Vulnerability to climaterisks = f(degree of physical

exposure , adaptive

capacity) Adaptive capacity =

f( development

factor/population density)


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Coastalflooding

/storm surgeCoral

bleaching

Ocean

Acidification

Mangrovedestruction

Coastal Resources Sector


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Impacts of Climate Change

Extreme weather/events disasters

Increased flooding

Freshwater shortage

Saltwater intrusion Sea level rise

Ocean acidification

Coastal andMarine resources

Peoplessecurity,

livelihood and

way of life

Challenges to

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

affect

Source: PEMSEA,2010


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Coastal Capacities (Lack of)

Extreme and Chronic Poverty

Geographically isolated and disadvantaged- disconnectedness,

high cost of transport, lack of access to markets

Resource-poor 80% of rice is imported (except for West Coast)

No access to energy grid (thus, expensive ,diesel-fired generators) for

small islands

Depleted fishing grounds, competition from commercial intrusions

Low economic density; small and diffused markets; limited

internal trade

Source: Salceda, 2010)


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Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise

Land Loss due to 1 m SLR (beyond 2050)

CGSD, NAMRIA (1992) 129,114 ha

Greenpeace (2005) 138,000 ha

Manila Observatory (2009) 89,800 ha

H l h S


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Health Sector

Leptospirosis is positively

associated with the

volume of rainfall (r =

.515, p


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Leptospirosis and climate change projections

Malaria and Climate change projections 2020 and 2050

Dengue and climate change projections


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indicates that a one-meter risein sea level is projected toaffect 64 out of 81 provinces,covering at least 703 out of

1,610 municipalities, andinundating almost 700 millionsquare meters of land. The redmark indicates provinces thatare at threat.


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Adaptation & Food Security

Private- Alter crop species and varieties- Alter livestock species and breeds- Alter timing of planting and harvest- Multiple cropping season- Rehabilitation of on-farm structures- Change land use

Public- Plant and animal breeding

- Public awareness and extension- Insurance schemes and conditional cash tranfers- Modernization of irrigation systems

Adaptation


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Adaptation

It is an adjustment in natural or human systems in response toactual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, whichmoderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities (IPCC,TAR: Smit et al., 2001, p. 881).

Includes observed as well as anticipated future changes inclimate.

Adaptation can be happening in response to perceived changein climate or in anticipation of future change in climate. Autonomous adaptation is considered to be adaptations made by

affected entities, such as individuals, societies or nature, in response toobserved or perceived changes in climate.

Anticipatory or proactive adaptation is made to reduce risk from futurechanges in climate.


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Adaptation & Food Security

Structural Measures: Drought and saline resistant crops, Efficient irrigation techniques, Water conservation technologies,

Improved farming systems/practices

Non-structural measures: Strengthen risk and vulnerability

assessment, Weather data collection and forecasts, Early warning systems, Effective policy coordination and

institutional arrangements.

There are strategies that can help managedi t i k d l h l i


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The most effective strategies offerdevelopment benefits in the relatively near

term and reduce vulnerability over the longer term

disaster risk now and also help improve

peoples livelihoods and well-being

Application to CLUP


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Application to CLUP

(Multi-sectoral)

C t l


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Cross sectoral

This is an integrated measure which looks at theobjective in a very holistic manner.

For example, science, research and development,

and technological innovations such as thedevelopment of drought-resistant crop varieties, or

new technologies to combat saltwater intrusion.

A good example is the ecosystem based or EcoTown

or ridge to reef approaches

Integrated or cross-sectoral


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Integrated or cross sectoral

A Continuum of Climate Change Adaptation Measures


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Adaptationfocus

Benefit in the

absence of CC

Example

Vulnerability reduction Response to impacts

100% 0%

Providing farmersdrought tolerant

varieties & trainingfor water savingmethods

Teaching officialsto collect climate

data and integratein their planningdecisions

Coastal zoneprotection with

vegetativebuffers likemangroves

Constructingshelters in

response tofrequentTyphoons

Non-structural StructuralType
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Thank you!

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Module 7 VAA