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Mexican Automotive Industry Outlook towards
2020
Eduardo J. Solís SánchezExecutive PresidentMexican AutomotiveIndustry Association
October 6th, 2016Mexico City
Automotive SectorEconomic Relevance:
2
Top generator of foreign reserves. With a foreign trade surplus of 52.5 billion dollars
in 2015
Contributes with 3.1% of total GDP and 18.3% of
manufacturing industry GDP
Mexico has become the 7th
largest manufacturer of vehicles and the 1st in Latin
America
4th largest exporter in the world
5h largest automotive parts exporter and first supplier for
the United States
25% of manufacturing exports
Producción y Exportación– Contributed with 3.7% of total world production.– More than 80% of total production is directed to foreign markets.
3
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Jan-
Ago
201
5Ja
n-A
go 2
016
Mill
onun
its
Light vehicle production
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Jan-
Ago
201
5Ja
n-A
go 2
016
Millon
units
Light vehicle exports
Source: AMIA.
∆0.7%
∆-2.7%
Automotive Industry GDPFrom 2008 to 2015, Mexican automotive industry has consolidated as one of the most important in the Mexican economy increasing its share of total GDP by 58% and its share of manufacturing sector GDP by 53%
4Fuente: INEGI - PIB y Cuentas Nacionales. Precios constantes base 2008.Notas: P se refiere a datos preliminares. Automotriz considera Fabricación de automóviles y camiones, Fabricación de carrocerías y remolques, Fabricación de partes para vehículos automotores, Fabricación de otro equipo de transporte.
2.0%
1.5%
2.1%2.3%
2.5% 2.6%2.9%
3.1%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015P
Automotive industry shareTotal GDP
12.0%
9.6%
12.8%14.1%
15.3% 15.9%17.1%
18.3%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 P
Automotive industry shareManufacturing industry GDP
… the automotive industry impacts 84 economic activities of manufacturing industry and 73 of trade and services.
Manufacturing sector in Mexico• Into manufacturing sector, the automotive industry is the
second GDP generator.
Source: INEGI – Sistema de Cuentas Nacionales. 5
Share manufacturing industry GDP 1993 2000 2005 2014 2015
Percentages 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0Agroindustry 24.1 20.2 22.7 23.6 22.6Automotive industry 11.2 13.5 12.1 16.9 18.3Chemistry industry 9.4 11.1 12.6 11.6 9.0Basic metal industry 3.3 4.5 6.4 5.8 5.4Beverages and tobacco industries 4.5 4.7 5.5 5.1 5.2
Other industries 47.5 46.0 40.7 37.0 39.6
The automotive industry employs 730,923 people
directly, representing
14.4% of total manufacturing
sector employment.
Source: INEGI – Censos Económicos 2014. 6
Agroindustry17.3%
Automotive industry
14.4%
Metal products
7.7%Clothing
5.9%
Other industries
54.6%
Manufacturing sector employment 2014
Automotive industryexports importance
7
Automotive industry exports represent more than oil products exports, remittances income and tourism income together.
27,877
9,704
15,390
11,879
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2013 2014 2015 2016
Mill
ones
de
dóla
res
January - JulyAutomotive industry Oil products Remittances Tourism income
Fuente: elaborado por AMIA, con datos de INEGI - Grupo de Trabajo de Estadísticas de Comercio Exterior, integrado por el Banco de México, INEGI, Servicio de Administración Tributaria y la Secretaría de Economía.* Se considera Industria Automotriz: 87.01.20 Tractores de carretera para semirremolques; 87.02 Vehículos automóviles para el transporte => 10 personas; 87.03 Automóviles tipo turismo; 87.04 Vehículos para transporte de mercancías; 87.05 Automóviles para usos especiales; 87.06 Chasises con motor; 87.07 Carrocerías ; 87.08 Partes y accesorios de vehículos; 87.11 Motocicletas
Automotive industryexports in the world
8
During 2014 Mexico was the 4th largest exporter in the world, above counties like Canada and Korea.
Production value
9
55.4%national production
Source: INEGI.
28.8%26.6%
44.6%
Added value Domestic inputs Imported inputs
Vehicles and trucks production
Mexico’s production of vehicles by state
10
Railway Sistem
Source: Secretaría de Comunicaciones y Transportes. 11
Source: MIT Observatory of Economic Complexity. 12
Mexican exports by railway system2014 value
Automotiveindustry:
22%
13Source: Secretaría de Comunicaciones y Transportes.
Vehicles trade throughmaritime ports (January-July 2016) Export Import
246,458vehicles
53,720vehicles
40,115vehicles
27,722vehicles
186,010vehicles
101,176vehicles
National Ports System
5,914
26,9021,257
NAFTA vehicle production
• From 1994 to 2015 production vehicle of NAFTA región increased 14.5%.
14Fuente: elaborado por AMIA con datos de Ward’s Automotive y OICA. Data in vehicle units.
Canada15%(2.32
million)
United State78%(12.24 million)
Mexico7%
(1.12 million)
1994
NAFTA: 15.68 million vehicles.
Canada13%(2.28
million)
United State67%(12.10 million)
Mexico20%(3.57
million)
2015
NAFTA: 17.95 million vehicles.
15
Vehicle production in theworld
Fuente: elaborado por AMIA con datos de OICA.
Light vehicles productionand forecast 2020
16Fuente: 2000 a 2015 registro de AMIA. 2016^ a 2020^ corresponde a estimación de la asociación suponiendo una tasa de crecimientodel 3% y con base en los anuncios publicados.
1.9 1.8 1.81.5 1.5 1.6
2.0 2.0 2.1
1.5
2.32.6
2.9 2.93.2
3.4 3.5
4.0
4.44.6
5.1
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
^
2017
^
2018
^
2019
^
2020
^
Mill
ion
units
Considering new investments, our forecast is thatMexico will be producing more than 5 million vehicles in2020 (hard forecast)
17
Canada13%(2.3
million)
United States60%(12.1
million)
Mexico27%(5.1
million)
2020(estimated*)
* Assuming that United States and Canada maintain the same production level of 2015.
Canada13%(2.28
million)
United State67%(12.10 million)
Mexico20%(3.57
million)
2015
NAFTA: 17.95 million vehicles.
18.0%
21.0%
24.0%
27.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
México ~ MexLinear (México) Linear (~ Mex)
México(1994-2015)
México(forecast
2016-2020)
Mexico has increased 12.7% its share in NAFTA production during the last 21 years.
18* Assuming that United States and Canada maintain the same production level of 2014.
2016
2020
With an increase to 5.1 million vehicles in
next 5 years, Mexico could increase its
share by 6.2%.
… and the opportunity in the supply chain
19
Market value and investmentopportunity in the supply chain in Mexico
• 74% of total demand for processes is imported, therefore, there are huge investment opportunities for foreign companies.
• The most demanded processes are stamping, foundry, forging , machining, plastic injection and casting.
Source: PROMEXICO. The Auto Parts Industry, Business Intelligence Unit.
PROMEXICO’s calculations.Data in billions of dollars.
20
Domestic Market
21
Mexican domestic market
• New vehicle sales keep its growing up trend. September 2016 sales stand as thebest this month as well as January-September.
1,13
9,71
8
1,13
5,40
9
1,35
1,64
8
944,
907
1,11
9,10
6
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,00019
90
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Jan-
Sep
201
5
Jan-
Sep
201
6
Uni
dade
s de
veh
ícul
os li
gero
s
+ 18.4%
22
Source: AMIA, con datos de sus asociados.
Similar countries
23
Source: ACARA, AMIA, ANAC, ANFAVEA.
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Argentina Brazil Chile Mexico
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
*
Argentina Brazil Chile Mexico
Light vehicles salesfor each 1,000 people
GDP per capita(constant US$, 2005)
Source: World Bank.* 2014 se estima con publicación del FMI.
source: ADEFA, ANAC, ANFAVEA y AMIA.* Light vehicle units.
Brazil Mexico Argentina Chile ColombiaJanuary - August
2015 1,691,804 833,577 388,804 177,114 185,531
January - August2016 1,305,562 987,663 462,834 187,219 157,231
change -22.8% 18.5% 19.0% 5.7% -15.3%
Imported used vehicles
24
Source: AMIA with data from SAT - Administración General de Aduanas..* Claves de documento consideradas: Zona Fronteriza: C1,C2 y VF, Resto del país: A1, A3 y VU.
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Jan-Aug2015
Jan-Aug2016
Borderland rest of the country
Used vehicles imports decreased 60.6% during 2015 and the first eight mothsof 2016 it decreased 5.8%.
Credit sales
25* Nota: considera la mayoría de las instituciones crediticias.Fuente: AMIA y AMDA con datos de JATO Dynamics.
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Thou
sand
sun
its
January - June
New vehicle sales Sales of new vehicles through credit *
At least 65.8% of January –June new vehicles sales were sold through credit.
Research and development in the automotive industry
26
Automotive Industry Group ofUniversities and Research Centers
27Source: AMIA.
1. Human resources
3. Infrastructure
4. Collaborative projects
5. Government incentives
6. Legislative agenda
¡ T H A N K Y O U !Eduardo J. Solís Sánchez
Executive President
Mexican Automotive Industry Association
+52 (55) 5272-1144
28
@AmiaMexico
Asociación Mexicana de laIndustria Automotriz ac