May 4, 2020 BSE Sensex: 33718 Powervid.investmentguruindia.com/report/2020/May/Power... · BSE Sensex: 33718 ICICI Securities Limited is the author and distributor of this report

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Equity Research May 4, 2020

BSE Sensex: 33718

ICICI Securities Limited is the author and distributor of this report

Sector update

Power

National Infrastructure Pipeline – Power capex to lead

Research Analysts:

Rahul Modi [email protected] +91 22 6637 7373

Anshuman Ashit [email protected]

+91 22 6637 7419

INDIA

The GoI recently released details of the National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP), which was announced on 31st Dec’19. The NIP aims to provide a well-planned target-based approach to infrastructure development in the country between FY20 and FY25, outlining sector-specific investment targets and timelines. Of the total planned investment amount of Rs111trn, share of the power sector at Rs25trn is the highest (22.5%). While short-term issues in the sector pertain to addressing demand revival and the liquidity concerns, especially of the discoms, it is imperative to stay on track in terms of achieving the medium to long term objectives for which reforms and capital expenditure have to be the key focus areas. Power sector projects being capital-intensive with long gestation periods require much advanced planning and execution, and the NIP aims to achieve the same. In this report, we examine the details pertaining to the power sector in the NIP and its impact on the sector.

Resurrecting demand: The immediate requirement in the sector is to take actions to resurrect the lost/latent demand. Daily demand is still low at 133GW as on 2nd May; however, it has increased from the lows of 102GW as on 26th March but still below 162GW as on 20th March. This has also had an impact on production and offtake from Coal India, which declined 10.9% and 25.5% YoY respectively during Apr’20. We believe the way to go about demand resurrection is through discoms – focusing on improving their financial health and addressing their liquidity concerns. With 24x7 power availability still not a reality in many states, while state discoms continue to incur losses at the EBITDA levels, distribution reforms cannot be more timely and impactful, which can help meet the latent demand. Additionally, media reports suggest that PFC and REC will extend Rs940bn worth of special long-term transition loans for 10 years to discoms, conditionally, in two phases, which will be a welcome step. It is essential to note here that with the government (both Centre and states) easing lockdown measures, there has been an improvement in the daily demand.

Reviving capex cycle: Power is one of the most capex-intensive sectors, where planning needs to be done at least 4-5 years in advance to cater to the projected demand. It is therefore imperative that the capex cycle be revived. The NIP chalks out a comprehensive plan, outlining in detail the capex in the sector between FY20 and FY25. Of the total estimated capex of Rs111trn by FY25, power sector comprises 22.5% at Rs25trn. This is a 41% jump from the Rs17.7trn capex done in the sector between FY13-FY19. Of the Rs25trn outlined, conventional generation, distribution and transmission comprise Rs3.3trn, Rs3.2trn and Rs3trn respectively while, separately, state expenditure (all segments) includes Rs4.6trn and renewables Rs9.3trn. Although India is moving towards faster adoption of renewables, we believe its capacity addition in the next three years should be reduced and made more back ended. This will address the lingering concerns of reduced thermal PLFs as well as reduce the stress on discoms, who are finding it difficult to comply with the increasing RPOs. During this period, i.e. up to FY24, focus should be more on investments strengthening the distribution and transmission segments.

Electricity Act amendments: Passage of this Bill is important to kick start the investment cycle as it strengthens the intermediary, which is integral for demand growth. Of the many proposals, we believe some of the most critical are: 1) formation of ECEA for contractual dispute resolution in a time-bound manner (ensuring sanctity of contracts, which were lately being challenged by many); 2) disallowing creation of regulatory assets, and focusing on recovering entire cost of supply in tariffs and reducing cross-subsidies (which is the biggest reason for the current liquidity crunch of discoms as they were selling 40-45% of their volumes to industry, which contributed 65-70% of their revenues); 3) exclusion of state subsidies in tariff determination, which will pave the way for DBT for the subsidised consumers (reducing power theft); 4) inclusion of hydro in RPOs; 5) proposing distribution sub-licensees / franchisees (aimed at partial/complete privatisation, especially for discoms that are unable to reform and meet the proposed stringent criteria); 6) streamlining and simplifying selection of members of Commissions, improving transparency and independence in decision-making.

Power, May 4, 2020 ICICI Securities

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Key highlights of the report

The NIP, which was announced on 31st Dec’19, aims to provide a well-planned target-

based approach to infrastructure development in the country, which will in turn help

create jobs, power businesses, improve ease of living and provide equitable access to

infrastructure for all, thereby making growth more inclusive.

Table 1: Current status vs Vision 2025

Category Current Status Vision 2025

Generation

Total capacity 356 GW (as of March 31, 2019) 583 GW

Mix Thermal: 64%, renewable: 22%, hydro: 13%, nuclear: 1%

Thermal: 50%, renewable: 39%, hydro: 9%, nuclear: 2%

Per-capita electricity consumption

1,181 kWh (provisional as on March 31, 2019)

1,616 kWh

RE share in consumption ~10% ~20%

Storage - Grid energy storage and offshore wind energy to be promoted

Discom reforms

- Discoms under huge debt burden - Open access in power distribution

- Resort to unscheduled load-shedding - More cost reflective tariffs

- High AT&C losses at 8% to 41% - Extensive metering

- Payment to PPP operators through letter of credit (LC) mechanism

- Subsidies to be switched to DBT from government, allowing full commercial operation of discoms

- Incentivise roof-top solar energy production

Smart metering - <5% of meters as on June 30, 2018 - Smart metering for all categories of customers, including prepaid

meters

- Low level of digitisation - 100% digitisation

EV Charging Infra

Low penetration - Public charging infrastructure within 3km and in all commercial and multi storeyed buildings

- Highway charging infrastructure on all national highways every 25km, including e-highway infrastructure in select corridors

Source: NIP report, I-Sec research

Overview of the past performance

Between FY13-FY19, India’s infrastructure investment has been an estimated

Rs57trn, which was 5.7% of India’s nominal GDP of Rs989trn during the period. The

split of share of Centre plus states and the private sector has been ~70:30 over these

years.

Chart 1: India’s infrastructure investment trend (Rs trn)

1.4 1.6 1.7 2 2.33.9 3.8

2.4 2.7 33.5

4.3

3.8 3.7

1.52

2.3

3

2.6

2.5 2.5

5.32

6.257

8.519.2

10.2 10

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E

(Rs tn)

Centre State Private



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Chart 2: Share of infrastructure investment by the Centre, states and private sector

26% 26% 23% 24% 25%41% 41%

45% 43%41% 41%

47%

33% 32%

28% 30% 33% 36% 28% 26% 27%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%


Centre State Private


Considering the 12th Five Year Plan period, between FY13 and FY17, the share of

power sector investment in overall infrastructure investment was ~37%, rising at ~8%

CAGR. For the Plan period, share of various segments was: generation (61%),

transmission (20%) and distribution (19%). Since FY15, while the thrust continued to

be on generation, especially renewables, investment in the transmission segment saw

a significant increase and the transmission lines in India grew at a healthy 7% CAGR.

But the most important link of the power sector value chain, i.e. distribution, continued

to be under-invested, with most of the distribution network still being managed by the

states discoms. It is this segment where main focus of the NIP will be, since much

more reforms are required to strengthen this segment and attract significant

investment, including private, which will have a bounce-on impact on the financial

viability of the entire sector.

Chart 3: Sector-wise share in infrastructure investment of Rs57trn during FY13-FY19E

Power31%

Roads and Bridges

18%

Railways10%

Ports1%

Urban15%

Telecommunication

12%

Irrigation9%

Airports1%

others3%



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Chart 4: Investment trend in the power sector

2.3 2.5 2.5 2.7 3.2 2.6 1.9

44%41%

34%32%

35%

27%

20%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5


Power sector investment (Rs tn) As share in total infrastructure investment (%)


Table 2: India’s utility infrastructure’s ranking as per the Global Competitiveness Index 2019 – still a long road to improvement

Parameter India’s rank

Electricity access 105 Electricity supply quality 108 Exposure to unsafe drinking water 106 Reliability of water supply 96 Electricity access 105 Overall utility infrastructure 103



5

Overview of the upcoming capex as per the NIP

Of the total estimated capex spend of Rs111trn by FY25, expense on energy, which

includes power, comprises a significant 24%. In fact, power comprises 22.5% of the

total capex at Rs25trn.

Chart 5: Sector-wise breakup of capital expenditure of Rs111trn during FY20-FY25

Energy24%

Roads18%

Railways12%Ports

1%

Airports1%

Urban17%

Digital Infra3%

Irrigation8%

Rural Infra7%

Agriculture & food processing infra

2%

Social infra4%

Industrial infra3%


The Centre (39%) and states (40%) are expected to have almost equal share in

implementing the NIP in India, followed by the private sector.

Chart 6: Share of Centre, state and private sector in the NIP

Centre, 39%

State, 40%

Private, 21%


Of the total Rs111trn, Rs44trn (40%) worth of projects are already under

implementation, while Rs34trn (30%) worth of projects are currently at the

conceptualisation stage, Rs22trn (20%) worth of projects are under development, and

projects worth Rs11trn (10%) are yet to be planned (expect more clarity on these

projects in the subsequent NIP publications).


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Chart 7: Stage of implementation of the identified projects

Under implementation,

40%

Under development,

20%

At conceptual stage, 30%

Uncategorised, 10%


Rs25trn of capex is estimated in the power sector over FY20-FY25. Of this Rs14.1trn

is identified for conventional power, in which investments in generation, transmission

and distribution will constitute 34%, 32% and 34% respectively. The higher focus on

T&D segment is evident from the above expenditure mix, especially distribution, which

only saw 19% of the total investments during the 12th Five Year Plan period. Hence,

we anticipate that going ahead the primary focus of government reforms will be in this

segment of the value chain.

Chart 8: Capex in the power sector over FY20-FY25

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Power Renewable Energy Atomic energy

FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 No phasing

14,104

9,295

1,555



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Chart 9: Capex in the power sector over FY20-FY25

301538 638 635 650 507

211420 442 600 700 857549

539 507515 515

415581

758 630 485 387 331305

1,510 1,440 1,700 2,1702,170

116

215 283331

327283

2,063

3,980 3,9414,266

4,7494,563

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25

(Rs b

n)

Generation Distribution Transmission States Renewable Energy Atomic energy


Table 3: Power sector capital expenditure over FY20-FY25 (Rs bn)

Category FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 Total

Generation 301 538 638 635 650 507 3,268 Distribution 211 420 442 600 700 857 3,230 Transmission 549 539 507 515 515 415 3,041 Total 1,061 1,497 1,587 1,750 1,865 1,779 9,539 States 581 758 630 485 387 331 4,565 Renewable Energy 305 1,510 1,440 1,700 2,170 2,170 9,295 Atomic energy 116 215 283 331 327 283 1,555 Overall total 2,063 3,980 3,941 4,266 4,749 4,563 24,954


Table 4: Category-wise capex over FY20-FY25

Category Capex over FY20–FY25 (Rs bn)

Generation 3,268 - NTPC 1,200 - NHPC 440 - THDC 104 - SJVN 103 - DVC 28 - State (Hydro) 754 - Private (Hydro) 638

Distribution 3,230 - DDUGJY, IPDS, Proposed New Scheme 3,230

Transmission 3,041 - PGCIL 655 - DVC 5 - State 1,900 - Private 480

Total 9,539 States 4,565 Overall total 14,104


Table 5: Renewable energy capex outlook

Category Target by Dec 25 (in GW)

Actual achievement till Oct 19 (in GW)

Capacity to be added by FY25 (in GW)

Capex over FY20–FY25 (Rs bn)

Solar 149.7 31.7 118 4,720 Wind 96.99 37.09 59.9 4,193 Small hydro 7 4.65 2.35 235 Bio 12.04 9.94 2.1 147 Total 265.73 83.38 182.35 9,295



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Table 6: KPI framework for the power sector

Theme Metric Units Source of data

FY19 progress

FY25 target

Discom performance

Electricity supply quantity % ATC losses

MoP 22.31% (Mar’18)

10%

Avg. cost & revenue gap Rs/unit MoP 0.3 (Mar’18) 0

Receivable days range for discom

Days MoP 90-300 60

Average monthly outage hours on online monitored rural feeders

Hours/month MoP TBD TBD

Smart metering % MoP TBD 100%

Coverage/ electricity access

Households connected % MoP TBD TBD

Assured power Total energy consumption per capita

kWh Ease of Living Report

TBD TBD

Average number of electrical interruptions per customer per year

Nos. Ease of Living Report

TBD TBD

Percentage of city population with authorised electrical services

% Ease of Living Report

TBD TBD

Sustainability (achieved through renewable energy)

Cumulative installed capacity (Total)

GW MNRE 78.31 240

Cumulative installed capacity (Wind)

GW MNRE 35.63 95.63

Cumulative installed capacity (Solar)

GW MNRE 28.18 146

Share of renewable energy / total electricity consumption

% MNRE 9% 25%



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Reforms anticipated in the power sector

Conventional power

Improving the financial health of discoms:

LC and other legal measures recently introduced need to be enforced, to

ensure honouring of power purchase and payment obligations.

Bring down AT&C losses along with achieving a commercial orientation in

discoms’ functioning will be the key.

Ensuring adequate fuel supply:

Coal-based: With 100% FDI in coal mining now allowed, a big thrust to

foreign mining companies to enter India is expected, improving mining

technology and increasing competition in the domestic market, which will

improve efficiency and reduce dependence on imported coal, thereby

lowering the import bill.

Gas-based: Resolution of issues of non-availability of domestic gas and

high cost of imported gas affecting the financial viability of many gas

assets needs to be addressed.

Resolving stressed and stranded thermal assets:

Unlock bank exposure to infrastructure and release the same for re-

investments.

Fully implement and monitor recommendations of the High Level

Empowered Committee to ensure speedy resolution.

Instead of setting up new thermal plants, prioritise resolution and put

stalled projects to use.

Planning for technology retrofits:

Required to enhance responsiveness to deal with steep ramp rates and

shorter peaks in order to account for greater share of fluctuating renewable

generation in the energy mix.

Renewable energy

Honouring PPAs:

Sanctity of contracts and timely dispute resolution are the key to retain and

attract private sector participation.

Improving scheduling and forecasting:

State regulations on scheduling and forecasting in line with the CERC

framework will help overcome the challenges of demand-supply mismatch

and grid instability by ensuring better scheduling and forecasting

mechanism.

Providing bill discounting facility:

This will provide the much needed liquidity respite to developers as they

will be able to raise upfront cash against receivables from discoms.

Boosting solar PV modules manufacturing:


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Targeted policy support to make the domestic manufacturing competitive,

along with huge investments, are required in solar manufacturing to reduce

imports. India currently imports 85% of its solar PV modules and cells from

countries like China, Taiwan, Vietnam and Malaysia.

Transmission and distribution

Asset monetisation:

Required to finance new transmission infrastructure, bringing in much-

needed capital.

Introducing medium-term PPAs:

The present environment would make medium-term PPAs (3-5 years)

more attractive than long-term ones. With falling renewable tariffs, discoms

are not willing to commit to long-term PPAs.

Upgrading technology and infrastructure:

Rapid and widespread adoption of smart metering.

Introducing ‘time of the day’ pricing:

Under this, different rates would be applicable at different time slots in a

day. This could substantially improve financial health of the utilities and

smoothen the load curve.

Improving subsidy policies of states:

In order to reduce leakage, state power subsidies can be targeted through

the DBT mechanism, enabling discoms to become full commercial entities,

which is critical in reviving the investment cycle in the power sector.

There is also a need to further rationalise the subsidies to make discoms

financially more viable.

Timely revision of tariff by discoms:

Tariffs should be cost-reflective and, in order to ensure that tariffs are

revised from time to time, independent and autonomous functioning of the

regulator is a must.

Improving quality of baseline data before privatising discoms:

This must include data such as existing level of losses, network status,

consumer mix and sales, metering and billing.

This is essential to provide confidence to prospective bidders, ensure they

make realistic bids, and increase accountability of the licensee as well as

of the successful bidder for post-franchisee / PPP performance.

Power storage infrastructure

Pumped storage power plants and hydro power plants with pondage to be

promoted

This will enable smoothening of the fluctuating output of intermittent

renewable energy sources while also balancing base-load power plants, as

the share of renewable energy grows.

Reducing construction delays of hydro plants.

Incentivising private investments in battery storage and making them eligible

for benefits associated with ‘infrastructure’ status.

Creating an enabling policy environment for storage infrastructure.


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Price charts

Coal India NTPC Torrent Power

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May 4, 2020 BSE Sensex: 33718 Powervid.investmentguruindia.com/report/2020/May/Power... · BSE Sensex: 33718 ICICI Securities Limited is the author and distributor of this report