MARIS-FUTURREG Exploring Regional Innovation Futures

MARIS-FUTURREG Exploring Regional Innovation Futures

Scanning Science Popularisation Futures Bighi, 24 October 2007

FUTURREG Malta Introduction to Futures Studies and Tools

Jennifer Cassingena Harper

Future Studies

Future studies is a discipline that includes all forms of looking into the future, from trend extrapolation to utopia. (McHale). It is a study of the ways in which futures can happen.

Future studies are the systematic identification and study of alternative futures to enhance our ability to identify the opportunities and mitigate the risks which alternative futures present.

Future may be defined as a time to come: an array of possibilities emerging from conditions in the present.

Forecast is an estimate of what might happen in the future - a likely occurrence, a description of a possible future based on the collection, analysis and synthesis of available pertinent data.

Source: Prospectiva

Foresight: Science or Art

Source: FOREN Guide

Foresight - Science or art? Foresight is an approach at overlap of three converging trends

since mid-1990’s (Miles):

Futures Studies – shift from predictive to exploratory approaches, iteration and involvement of users for embedding /implementation.

Since 1950’s Futures studies or “futurology” has not been considered an objective science but an art, a composition of imagination and subjective certainties …. an individual and a community – not to speak about the whole mankind – do not have only one future but indeterminately many possible, alternative ones. (Jouvenel

Strategic Planning – shift from rational to evolutionary approaches, uncertainty is the norm, economic progress linked to disruptive innovations, qualitative vs quantitative changes within stable structures; long-term planning discredited but still needed.

Policy Analysis – shift to open, participatory approach, knowledge is distributed and policy-makers have to find ways to capture it.

Defining Foresight

What Foresight is NOT:● An approach for predicting the future

(prediction implies knowing aspect(s) of the future with certainty and precision. This is not possible in social contexts with qualitative rather than quantitative factors predominating).

● A Panacea or universal cure

Foresight is traditionally defined as:

1. A tool or set of tools used “to survey as systematically as possible what chances for development and what options for action are open at present, and then follow up analytically to determine to what alternative future outcomes the developments would lead” [1]

2. More recently, it has been recognized that foresight is more than just a set of tools, and involves a process whereby the tools are just one element, interacting with human inputs of intellect, expertise and sector-specific knowledge. a process - “a systematic, participatory, future intelligence-gathering and medium-to-long-term vision-building process”[2]

[1] Martin B.R and Irvine J. (1989) Research Foresight Priority-Setting in Science

[2] EU FOREN - Foresight for regional development—FOREN—A Practical Guide to Regional Futures http://foren.jrc.es/

The human dimension

But foresight is essentially embodied in the actors involved in its design and implementation and may thus also be defined in relation to two key human attributes:

3. foresight as a philosophy or particular mindset/approach to life evident at the individual or group level. It separates the proactive from the reactive, the path-dependent from the path-breakers.

4. foresight as a capacity for contemplating, anticipating and coping with the future also evident at the individual or group level. It entails a set of skills which can be taught but presumes a mindset open to creative thinking and proactive exploration of the future.

Actors in the spotlight

Generation First Second Third Fourth Focus Technology

forecasts Technology and Markets

Technology, markets and the social dimension

Innovation system

Programme Structure

Science and technology

Industry & Service Sectors

Thematic, socio-economic, problem-solving

Structural, framework conditions, regional

Actors

Experts Academics and Industry

Academics, industry, Gov & social stakeholders

+Regional and local players, in-house & external

Objectives Picking winners

Networking the economy

Wiring up NIS Self-organising NIS

Source: adapted from Georghiou, 2003

Strategic Futures Analysis

Characteristics

● Structured, evidence-based process● Wide range of analytical tools● Resilient and innovative strategies● Neutral space for challenge● Encourages broader dialogue

Source: Future Generation

Quantitative Tools (use of statistics and other data) to elaborate future trends and impacts

−

−Trend extrapolation

− Simulation modelling

− Cross impact analysis

− System dynamics

Qualitative Tools (drawing on expert knowledge) to develop long term strategies

−

− Delphi method

− Experts panels

− Brainstorming

− Mindmapping

− Scenario analysis workshops

− SWOT analysis

Tools to identify key points of action to determine planning strategies

−

− Critical/ key technologies

− Relevance trees

− Morphological analysis

Source: FOREN

Types of Tools ● Quantitative Tools provide numerical representation

of future developments, e.g. forecasts and modelling. They give a great deal of weight, an ability to examine rates and scales of changes but they limit the comprehension of social and political variables and are not always reliable.

● Qualitative Tools vary from creative thinking to more systematic techniques. Used when data are hard to collect or not available.

Foresight can never be completely dominated by quantitative methods: the mix depends on access to relevant expertise and the nature of the issues.

Types of Tools

● Exploratory Tools (“outward bound”) start from the present and move forward to examine kinds of alternative future developments it can lead to. Look at implications of possible developments that lie outside familiar trends: What if methods

● Normative Tools (“inward bound”) start with the creation of a preliminary view of possible (preferred) futures, then an analysis of how these futures may grow out of the present - asking what trends and events would take us there or can be avoided. How methods.

Tools by Phases 1. Define the problem:specific challenges and needs, e.g. a longer-

term innovation strategy), set the time horizon.

Methods: Panels, SWOTs or brain-storming,

2. Scope -possible focus on specific sectors, bottom-up vs top-down, extent and structure of consultation (experts/non-experts), resources, choosing appropriate methods.

3. Identify the key variables analysing the relations between variables, by placing them in matrix to identify drivers.

Methods: panels/ interviews/desk-based research/specialised studies/ cross-impact analysis: influence and dependency graph.

4. Gathering data on trends and drafting hypotheses.

Methods: trend analysis, simulation modelling, weak signals.

5. Exploring possible future through scenario-building

Methods: Exploratory or Normative approaches, panels

Popular Tools Expert panelsScenarios – baseline,

success scenarios and disruption scenarios

On-line fora and delphiHorizon scanning Creativity sessionsFuture Dialogues

Popular Methods Worldwide (EFMN)

Multi-use of Methods

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200,0

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Expert Panels

Questionnaire / Survey

Literature Review

Interviews

Brainstorming

Trend Extrapolation

SWOT Analysis

Modelling & simulation

Megatrend Analysis

Scenarios

Key Technologies

Futures Workshops

Essays

Delphi

TRM

Blends of social themes and policy concerns

A balance of qualitative and quantitative for robust, evidence-based results

Creative process for creative product

Adaptive foresight and context-based learning

Hybrid Approaches

Year Delphi Mixed Panel/Scenario/Roadmapping etc

1971- 1st 4 Japanese STA surveys

1989 Ministry of Economic Affairs Netherlands

1990 1st German

1991 5th Japanese Critical Technologies USA

1992 Public Good Science Fund New Zealand

1993 South Korea Technologies at Threshold of 21st Century Germany

1994 FranceJapan/Germany Mini Delphi

1995 1st UK Foresight Programme

100 Key Technologies France

1996 Japan-German Delphi

Matching S&T to Future Needs AustraliaForesight Steering Committee Netherlands

1997 ANEP Spain Foresight Ireland

1998 Austria TEP Hungary South Africa; New Zealand; 1st Swedish Foresight; Brazil 2020

1999 ITC Foresight Thailand

2nd UK TF Programme; Futur 0 Germany; 2nd 100 Key Techs France

Year Delphi Mixed Panel/Scenario/Roadmapping

2000 7th Japanese; Prospectar Brazil

Technology Foresight Programme Brazil

ET2000 (Portugal); IPTS Futures EU

2001 Technology Foresight Chile

Futur 1 Germany; Technology Foresight Greece; TF Exercise Czech

2002 3rd UK Programme; eForesee (Cyprus, Estonia, Malta); 2nd Swedish TF; National Technology Foresight Denmark; NIH Roadmap USA

2003 Foretech (Bulgaria, Romania); 2nd Swedish Foresight; Norwegian Research Council 2020 studies

2004 8th Japanese Futuris France; ANRT France; AGORA 2020 France; Nordic Hydrogen energy foresight;

2005 3 Moments Brazil

Finnsight Finland; 21st Century Challenges GAO USA

2006 SITRA Foresight Finland

References● http://forera.jrc.es/fta/intro.html

● http://www.efmn.info

● http://cordis.europa.eu/foresight/home.htm

● http://www.eranet-forsociety.net/ForSociety

● http://www.costa22.org/

● http://forlearn.jrc.es/index.htm

● http://www.unido.org/doc/12296

● http://www.futurreg.net/

● http://www.acunu.org/millennium/

● http://www.theworldcafe.com/● http://www.futuresearch.net/