M. Salim Uddin C. Emdad Haque and Parnali Dhar Chowdhury

Natural Resources InstituteUniversity of Manitoba

October 25, 2012

9th Annual Canadian Risk and Hazards Network Symposium

2. Purpose2. Purpose

3. Method3. Method

4. Major Findings 4. Major Findings

5. Conclusion 5. Conclusion

1. Introduction 1. Introduction

6. Recommendations6. Recommendations

Despite the UN initiative in the 1990s to implement the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction, increased investment in disaster mitigation, as well as introduction of early warning system, socioeconomic loss due to natural disasters has continued to rise globally (IPCC, 2007)

Early warning to disasters – it is the set of capacities needed to generate and disseminate timely and meaningful warning information to enable individuals, communities and organizations threatened by a hazard to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss (UNISDR 2010)

All warning systems involve three interconnected phases: (1) evaluation, (2) dissemination/ warning, and

(3) response (Smith 1992; Haque, 1995)

The medium of transmission and nature of vulnerability are crucial elements for effectiveness of warning system

Bangladesh, which is one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world, called “nature’s laboratory for disasters.”

Of the 508 cyclones that have originated in the Bay of Bengal in the last 100 years, 17 % have hit Bangladesh, amounting to a severe cyclone almost once in every three years, 53% have claimed more than five thousand human lives.

Propensity to losing lives as well as socioeconomic losses –makes society incrementally more vulnerable to natural disasters and loss of entitlements to resources

Hazard warnings, and compliance with evacuation orders linked with geographical, sociological, psychological, economic, and demographic variables of the community (Mileti 1999; Dow and Cutter 2000; Blanchard-Boehm and Cook 2004; Paul et al. 2006)

Bandura’s (1986) social cognitive theory- explains how crisis communication strategies, residents’ characteristics, quantity and quality of shelter available, and other relevant factors influenced decisions about evacuation in the context of Cyclone.

Personal factors provide an understanding of:-storm’s severity and duration, -their perceived susceptibility to harm, -the skills required to avert harm, -their confidence in performing necessary actions, --their expectations of surviving the emergency, and -their goals at the time of the emergency.

Mileti and Sorensen (1990) claimed that people directly affected by disasters are significantly more responsive to future hazard predictions and warnings than those who have never been affected by a disaster.

Haque and Blair (1992), and Biddle (2007) identified that warning failures include the inability to evacuate because of:

-lack of transportation or travel-beliefs that “it won’t happen to me/us”-fatalistic view- “God will protect us”-homes will be looted during the evacuation

People of coastal plains in Bangladesh are extremely vulnerable due to their social, economic, and physical conditions/structureand their habitat in an extremely dynamic estuarine environment facing many natural disasters

The human vulnerability along the coast is reflected in the dwellings of 60 million people with GDP per capita less than US $700 (with skewed distribution of wealth)

The most catastrophic cyclone and storm surge made its landfall on 12th November 1970, causing loss of approximately half a million lives and loss of property amounting to more than US $1 billion (Sommer & Mosley, 1972).

The ‘super-cyclone’ Sidr, which devastated the southwestern coast on 15th November 2007, caused 3,406 deaths, injured 55,000 people, and resulted in about US $1.7 billion damage to properties (Paul, 2009)

To map the prevailing cyclone early warning systems, assess their effectiveness in terms of peoples’ response to them, inhabitants’ perception of the hazards, local preparedness based on the experience of Cyclone Sidr.

To examine conceptual/policy considerations for reducing gap between early warning and people’s response to it.

The prevailing early warning systems and preparedness are saving lives and property, but not adequate to attain the full potential of disaster risk reduction along the Coastal Plains ofBangladesh.

Early warning system should be adapted to socio-cultural characteristics of a given society, and should not be treated merely from a “technical” perspective.

A qualitative Case Study research approach was followed

PRA tools used- Household interviews

-162 HHs- Focus group discussion- Key informant interviews

Study area

Map of the study area

Communities, in need of early warning, are vulnerable due to: - susceptible location and pattern of settlement- inappropriate land-use & management systems- reliance on fishing for livelihood and lack of

safe infrastructure- delay in responses to warnings and a complex decision-making process

Cyclone Preparedness- Better cyclone preparedness and high level of awareness during cyclone Sidr saved lives and reduced death toll

- 59% people of study villages (who received warning) went to cyclone shelters or took shelter in the structurally more stronger homes of neighbors, friends, and relatives

- 41% did not go to shelter: due to their faith on God (Allah) and fate, to try to save own house and property, “shelters were too far” and unavailability of cyclone shelters in close vicinity

Cyclone shelters and killas

- 34 cyclone shelters for 631,138 people (2001 census) in Burguna Sadar Upazila, Burguna average 18,563 people/shelter

- 113 cyclone shelters for 202,078 people in Kalapara Upazila, Patuakhali district, 1,788 people/ shelter

Reasons Respondents (%)(multiple response

possible)Low sanitation and drinking water facility 87Low capacity 79Hard to maintain privacy 47Old structure 43Unhygienic condition 24Lower level access road 14Situated in a distant place 12Do not know 5

Reasons for not using cyclone shelters (as revealed by the respondents N=162)

Coastal embankments and plantation- Support agriculture and protect the lives and property of coastal residents during cyclones; but unaware of waterlogging problems (5,333 km of coastal embankments)

- 90% respondents believed that coastal embankments had saved their lives and property from cyclone Sidr

-Coastal plantations were another major living structure which reduced the velocity of wind and tidal surges (can support locallivelihood needs)

Cyclone Preparedness

Despite a massive mobilization of local authorities and volunteers and the issuance of an emergency evacuation order by the Government, considerable number of individuals refrained from taking refuge in public cyclone shelters during Cyclone Sidr – lack a sense of ownership and responsibility

Coastal embankments save life and property from tidal surges – embankment projects should be negotiated by informing the inhabitants about potential adverse effects

Government needs to initiate educational and awareness enhancement campaigns, in a participatory manner, in coastal districts about ‘ownership’ of public shelters

Although the early warning systems and local preparedness were much better during cyclone Sidr, still there are many loopholes in the overall disaster management systems that would need serious attention if fatalities caused by disasters are to be significantly reduced.

In addition to constructing more cyclone shelters, strong cross scale institutional partnerships, whereby the voices of the local institutions and people would be heard, must be developed to achieve such goals.

The cyclone warning system should therefore be regarded as a subset of a comprehensive disaster preparedness and management program rather than as an isolated system.

Construction of new cyclone shelters and ensuring their multipurpose use through direct community participation

Construction of new coastal embankments by incorporating local needs and preferences

Local leaders and institutions should be mobilized to enhance awareness of the villagers about cyclone mechanisms and potential impact

Risk and vulnerability reduction – local/traditional knowledge and preference of local communities must be incorporated

Villagers of the study area;

Building Environmental Governance Capacity in Bangladesh project (funded by Canadian International Development Agency – CIDA); and

University of Manitoba, Canada