LRTP forecast report

7/30/2019 LRTP forecast report

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Lo s Angeles County One ateway P l a z a zi3.9z2z000M e t r o p o l i t a n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n A u t h o r i t y Lo s Angeles, CA 9ooiz-2952 metro.net

Met roFINANCE,BUDGETAND AUDITCOMMITTEE

MAY 5, 2013

SUBJECT: UPDATEDLONG RANGE TRANSPORTATION PLAN FINANCIALFORECAST

ACTION: ACCEPTTHE LRTP FINANCIAL FORECASTUPDATE

RECOMMENDATIONSA . Accept the updated Long Range T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Plan(LRTP) i n a n c i a l Forecast

described in Attachment A , n c l u d i n g :1 . A d d i t i o n a l "up t o " cost assumptions o r the o l l o w i n g LRTP programs:

a) tate o f Good Repair $ 750 M i l l i o n ;b ) ccelerated Regional T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Improvement

P r o j e c t(ARTI) A s s u m e s o l l based borrowing] $ 410 M i l l i o n ;c)A u m m a r y of the use o f fund assignment u t h o r i t y

delegated t o the Chief E xecutive O f f i c e r(CEO) nAppendix A o Attachment A; and

2. Measure R r o j e c t Cost C o n t r o l Process and P o l i c y compliancerecommendations ound in Attachment B:

a) estside S u b w a y S e c t i o n 1 FTA r o j e c t Mana ge m e ntOversight Consultant(PMOC) stimate $ 178 M i l l i o n ;b )Regional Connector PMOC stimate $ 33 i l l i o n ;c) n t e r s t a t e 5 outh(LACMTA) $ 153 i l l i o n ;d ) n t e r s t a t e 5 outh (Excess ROW, t a t e , & Ot h e r) $ 50 i l l i o n ;e ) n t e r s t a t e 405 Northbound HOV an e $ 75 i l l i o n ;f l E x p o s i t i o n P h a s e 1 (E x p o A u t h o r i t y ) $ 32 i l l i o n ;g) x p o s i t i o n P h a s e 1 (LACMTA) $ 7 i l l i o n .

ISSUE

Th e LACMTA oard of D i r e c t o r s l a s t r e c e i v e d an update t o the LRTP i n a n c i a lForecast i n A p r i l 2012. As h o w n i n Attachment A , i g n i f i c a n t chan g e s o the f o r e c a s tsince A p r i l 2012 n c l u d e a c o n t i n u i n g econo mic r e c o v e r y , an annual update t o the UCLAAnderson Forecast of a x a b l e r e t a i l s a l e s , n e w i n t e r e s t r a t e assumptions o r a l l plannedb o r r o w i n g , p r e l i m i n a r y State of G o o d Repair study r e s u l t s , narrowing o f the d i f f e r e n c ebetween engineering estimates an d low b i d s , s i g n i f i c a n t n e w p r o j e c t cost e s t i m a t e s , an df u r t h e r developments in our P u b l i c P r i v a t e P a r t n e r s h i p(PPP) n d C a l l f o r P r o j e c t sprograms.


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I n a d d i t i o n t o the above updates, r i o r t o the new update o f the LRTP i n a n c i a lF o r e c a s t , we n t i c i p a t e t h a t the LACMTA Board of D i r e c t o r s w i l l need t o considera d d i t i o n a l funding f o r the f o l l o w i n g programs and p r o j e c t s :State o f Good Repair study $50 MARTI[As s u me s o l l Base d Borrowing] $10 MWestside S u b w a y P r o j e c t Manag emen t Oversight

Consultant(PMOC) stimate $78 MRegional Connector PMOC stimate $3MI n t e r s t a t e 5 outh(LACMTA) $53 MI n t e r s t a t e 5 outh (Ex cess ROW, t a t e , &O t h e r)$0 MI n t e r s t a t e 405 orthbound HOV Lane $5ME x p o s i t i o n Phas e 1 ( Ex po A u t h o r i t y ) $2 ME x p o s i t i o n Phas e 1 (LACMTA) $M

T o t a l $1,688 MC o l l e c t i v e l y , these funding needs appear o r e q u i r e d e f e r r i n g or compromising o t h e rLRTP nd 30/10 p o l i c y o b j e c t i v e s . However, we e l i e v e t h a t these a d d i t i o n a l c a p i t a lfunding n e e d s and the LACMTA oard's 30/10 p o l i c y o b j e c t i v e s should be me t i t hc hang es n planned b o r r o w i n g , change s n c o r r i d o r and s u b- r e g i o n a l fundingassumptions, and a business case based approach t o the ARTI p r o j e c t . Th e plannedborrowing s t r a t e g i e s are made o s s i b l e by lower i n t e r e s t r a t e assumptions asaddressed i n Attachment A. Th e change s i n c o r r i d o r and s u b-r e g i o n a l fundingassumptions are found i n the Measur e R os t C o n t r o l Process and P o l i c y a n a l y s i s i nAttachment B. Th e ne w approach t o the ARTI PPP r o j e c t i s described i n t h i s r e p o r tand on p a g e 8 f Attachment A found on p a g e 11 of h i s r e p o r t ) .F i n a l l y , the Appendix t o Attachment A ummar izes funding assignment change s madethrough the u s e o f a u t h o r i t y delegated t o the CEO. Th e s u m m a r y s h o w s e t a i l f o rLACMTA's 10 a r g e s t p r o j e c t s o n l y , bu t we re p r o v i d i n g a d d i t i o n a l d e t a i l underseparate cover t o be known as the "Beige Book" ) . Fund assignment comparisons o rany o f the p r o j e c t s i n t h i s d e t a i l c an be prepared upon r e q u e s t .DISCUSSION

E conomic Recovery: We ontinue t o enjoy a sustained economic r e c o v e r y , making te a s i e r f o r State and Federal funding p a r t n e r s t o keep t h e i r commitments and y i e l d i n gs t r o n g sales t a x r e c e i p t s r e l a t i v e t o the depths of the worldwide economic downturn. Ass h o w n i n Attachment A, he a c t u a l sales tax r e c e i p t s have t r a c k e d w e l l since our l a s tf o r e c a s t update was e c e i v e d from UCLA n l a t e 2011. Th e 2012 update t o the UCLAAnderson Forecast of a x a b l e r e t a i l sales s h o w s an o v e r a l l decrease r e l a t i v e t o the2011 f o r e c a s t , bu t i s close enoug h t h a t counter- b a l a n c i n g c hang es i n i n t e r e s t costassumptions o r our planned borrowing c an adequately address any problems

LRTP i n a n c i a l Forecast Update & ea s ur e R r o j e c t Finance A c c e l e r a t i o n Plan Page 2


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presented by the lower o r e c a s t .State o f Goo d R e p a i r : S t a t e o f G o o d Repair a n a l y s i s a n d the narrowing d i f f e r e n c eb e t w e e n e n g i n e e r i n g estimates a n d low b i d s are a major concern. We re respondingt o a LACMTA o a r d of D i r e c t o r s request a n d a n a t i o n a l p o l i c y e f f o r t o n the p a r t of theFederal T r a n s i t A d m i n i s t r a t i o n (FTA) o improve State of G o o d Repair p r a c t i c e s byc a r e f u l l y s t u d y i n g these n e e d s a n d i d e n t i f y i n g t h e i r a n t i c i p a t e d cost a n d f u n d i n g . Ass h o w n in Attachment A, we re u s i n g p r e l i m i n a r y d at a f r o m the S t a t e of G o o d Repairst udy t o i n s u r e t h a t we a ve p r o v i d e d f o r S t a t e of Go o d Repair n e e d s going f o r w a r d .B i d Environ me n t: Also s h o w n in Attachment A s C a l t r a n s s t a t e w i d e data t h a t i n d i c a t e st h a t the d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n e n g i n e e r i n g estimates a n d low b i d s is s i g n i f i c a n t l ynarrowing a s the e c o n o m i c recovery c o n t i n u e s . While we a ve b e n e f i t e d f r o m l a r g e b i ds avin gs over the l a s t s e v e r a l y e a r s , we o w k n o w t h i s w i l l b e c o m e a n area of i g n i f i c a n tc on c e r n f o r our c a p i t a l p r o j e c t s d u e t o the narrowing we re seeing i n the C a l t r a n s d a t a .P u b l i c/ P r i v a t e P a r t n e r s h i p Development: As u r i r s t PPP r o j e c t , ARTI, n t e r s the l a t e rs t a g e s of t s f i n a n c i a l a n a l y s i s . t w i l l s o o n b e p o s s i b l e t o c on d u c t the business c a s ea n a l y s i s necessary t o evaluate f u n d a m e n t a l PPP pproaches. I n p r e p a r a t i o n f o r t h i sbusiness c a s e a n a l y s i s , we r e r e c o m m e n d i n g assumptions about the a p p r o p r i a t e t a xe x e m p t i n a n c i n g f o r the LACMTA-funded c a p i t a l c o m p o n e n t s o f the ARTI p r o j e c t .Th e s e r e c o m m e n d e d finance m e t h o d s i l l be u r t h e r evaluated in the pe n din g businessc a s e o r the PPP r o j e c t . Th e c o n t r a c t u a l l y ba sed t a x a b l e p r i v a t e finance o f t e n used inPPP r r a n g e me n t s i s almost e r t a i n l y m o r e expensive than w h a t we a n p r o v i d ethrough the r e c o m m e n d e d a s s u m p t i on s in t h i s LRTP pdate. Th e a d d i t i o n a l i n t e r e s te x p e n s e r e s u l t i n g f r o m p r i v a t e f i n a n c i n g w i l l n e e d t o b e w e i g h e d a g a i n s t o t h e r f a c t o r s t obe discussed in the PPP r o j e c t business c a s e a n a l y s i s . Please s e e Attachment A o rm o r e i n f o r m a t i o n ab o u t the p o s s i b l e u s e of a x e x e m p t i n a n c i n g f o r the LACMTAs p o n s o r e d p o r t i o n of ARTI.Th e a l l o c a t i o n of p u b l i c s e c t o r debt i n a n c i n g s e c u r e d by LACMTA evenues i s c a r e f u l l yconsidered through our LRTP rocess. I n c o n s i d e r i n g p u b l i c s e c t o r debt i n a n c i n gs e c u r e d by LACMTA evenues o r PPP r o j e c t s , we re cognizant h a t the PPPp r o g r a m c o u l d b e c o m e a n e w p a t h w a y t o u t i l i z i n g LRTP i n a n c i a l resources noto r i g i n a l l y conte mplat e d in the LRTP rocess. I n o t h e r wor d s, the LRTP i n a n c i a lc o n s t r a i n t s c o u l d themselves b e c o m e a PPP a t i o n a l e f o r h i g h c o s t p r o j e c t f i n a n c es t r a t e g i e s t h a t may ot be a s cost f f e c t i v e a s p o s s i b l e f o r the p u b l i c . Balancing thesec o n s i d e r a t i o n s presents a d i l e m m a f o r e v a l u a t i n g PPP usiness c a s e s b e c a u s ee l i m i n a t i n g a c c e s s t o t a x e x e m p t or LACMTA i n a n c i n g i n f l u e n c e s the comp ar ative d at au s e d f o r the business c a s e a n d u t i l i z i n g t hos e s t r a t e g i e s c o u l d c o m p r o m i s e the LRTPprocess. When a x a b l e p r i v a t e f i n a n c i n g i s c o n t r a c t e d through PPP rrangements,t hos e a r r a n g e me n t s m u s t not come t the u n a n t i c i p a t e d e x p e n s e o f o t h e r LRTPc o m m i t m e n t s . I n c l u s i o n of the ARTI p r o j e c t in the LRTP pdate d o e s not imply a n yconclusions h a v e b e e n r e ached: h a t c a n o n l y b e d o n e through the business c a s ea n a l y s i s .

LRTP i n a n c i a l Forecast U p d a t e & e a s u r e R r o j e c t Fin a n ce A c c e l e r a t i o n Plan P a g e 3


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DETERMINATION OFSAFETYIMPACT

Proper p l a n n i n g f o r b o t h State of Good Repair investments a n d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c a p i t a lp r o j e c t a c c e l e r a t i o n ha s u b s t a n t i a l l o n g term h e a l t h a n d s a f e t y b e n e f i t s . S t a t e of GoodRepair investments, when implemented, prevent a f e t y i n c i d e n t s r e l a t e d t o equipmentbreak-downs a n d o t h e r u n a n t i c i p a t e d problems. T r a n s p o r t a t i o n c a p i t a l p r o j e c ti mp r o ve me n t s i n c l u d e updated s a f e t y f e a t u r e s a n d m o b i l i t y b e n e f i t s t h a t l e a d t o loweraccident e v e r i t y a n d r a t e s a n d b e t t e r a i r q u a l i t y .FINANCIAL IMPACTThis update of the LRTP i n a n c i a l Forecast ha s i g n i f i c a n t f i n a n c i a l imp acts wherep r o j e c t cost cha nges are proposed. T he cost cha nges e nume r a ted i n t h i s r e p o r t arevalued a t over $1.688 i l l i o n a n d w i l l e a c h r e q u i r e f u r t h e r a c t i o n s of the LACMTA oardof D i r e c t o r s c o n c u r r e n t l y or a t a l a t e r t i m e . T he cost cha nges are i n p a r t a c c o m m od a t edby r e l a t i v e l y lower borrowing cost assumptions a n d o l l bonds i n c l u d e d i n t h i s update o rt he i r s t t i m e . T h e lower borrowing cost s are r e f l e c t i v e of the best a v a i l a b l e i n f o r m a t i o nc u r r e n t l y a n d r e s u l t i n h i g h e r loan a n d b o nd proceeds, n a b l i n g us o r e c o m m e n dch ange s o the LRTP i n a n c i a l F o r e c a s t . T he o l l b a sed bonds a re p a r t of the ARTIp r o j e c t . Except o r S t a t e o f Good r e p a i r a n d the ARTI p r o j e c t , e a c h o f ther e c o m m e n d ed cost cha nges i n v o l v e s c o r r i d o r or sub - r e g i o n a l e q u i t y t r a d e- o f f s a sr e q u i r e d by the LACMTA oard of D i r e c t o r s ' Mea s u re R Cost C o n t r o l Process a n dP o l i c y . T h e s e t r a d e - o f f are described i n Atta chment B.Impact o BudgetT he LRTP i n a n c i a l Forecast Update ha s n o impact, p o s i t i v e or n e g a t i v e , o n b us a n dr a i l o p e r a t i n g a n d c a p i t a l needs a s c o m p a r ed w i t h the p r e v i o u s update, except h a tState of Good Repair resources are im proved.ALTERNATIVESCONSIDERED

E a c h of the r e c o m m e nded assumptions c o u l d b e m o d i f i e d t o m a k e the LRTP i n a n c i a lForecast m o r e or l e s s r i s k adverse. Amore i s k adverse assumption would c o n s t r a i nwhat we ight accomplish a n d a l e s s r i s k adverse assumption might over-c o m m i t u s .We re recom m endi ng t he s p e c i f i c assumptions in t h i s r e p o r t b e cau se we e l i e v e theys t r i k e a proper balance between t he t wo r i s k extremes t o a v o i d the issues e i t h e rextreme might r a i s e going forward.NEXT STEPS

Progra m a nd p r o j e c t cost increases i l l b e brought o the LACMTA oard of D i r e c t o r si n d i v i d u a l l y f o r s p e c i f i c a c t i o n a t a l a t e r t i m e . A c t u a l a n d f o r e c a s t e d data o r sales t a xrevenues, borrowing i n t e r e s t r a t e s , a n d o p e r a t i n g a nd c a p i t a l costs i l l b e t r a c k e d .

LRTP i n a n c i a l Forecast Update& e asure R r o j e c t Finance A c c e l e r a t i o n Plan P ag e 4


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A n n u a l l y , we i l l update the f o r e c a s t and r e p o r t t o the LACMTA oard of D i r e c t o r s ourf i n d i n g s and r e v i s i o n s .ATTACHMENTSAttachment A: LRTP i n a n c i a l Forecast UpdateAttachment A Appendix} : Summary f Fund Assignment u t h o r i t y d e l e g a t i o n sAttachment B: Measure R ost Containment P o l i c y Compliance RecommendationsBV Separate Cover:LRTP i n a n c i a l F o r e c a s t i n g Model known as the "Beige Book")Prepared b y : David Yale

Executive O f f i c e r , Countywide Planning and Programming213-922-2469

LRTP i n a n c i a l Forecast Update& easure R r o j e c t Finance A c c e l e r a t i o n Plan Pa g e 5


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` ~ j ~ I V t Q Q ~ P 0 1 ~Martha Welborne, FAIAExecutive D i r e c t o r , Countywide Planning

~~ 'A r t h u r T. LeahyChief Executive O f f i c e r

LRTP i n a n c i a l Forecast Updafe & e a s u r e R r o j e c t Finance c c e l e r a t i o n Plan P a g e6


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. ~ C 1 7 ~Martha Welborne, FAIAExecutive D i r e c t o r , Countywide Planning

A r t h u r T. LeahyChief Executive O f f i c e r

LRTP i n a n c i a l Forecast Update& easure R r o j e c t Finance A c c e l e r a t i o n Plan P a g e 6


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ATTACHMENTA

LRTP inancial Forecast Update

LRTP i n a n c i a l Forecast Update & easure R r o j e c t Finance A c c e l e r a t i o n Plan P age 7


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UCLA nderson Forecast UpdateS ~ . o

$6.0

$5.0

$4.0c0m $3.0

$2.0

Recent MTA ales Ta x Revenue

$3.8 i l l i o n revenue drop using mostrecent UCLA on g-term forecast

Average 4.0%

Measure RE x p i r a t i o n

~Y 2012 c tu a$1.0 ~rNov 011 orecast

~ -March 013 orecast

$OA~~~c~Q,1p ~~ c ~ 1 ~ t~1Q,~ c~~~Q~1~~k~b~~c_~Q~1 '$Q,Y c ' ~1~~n ~~~y~~ r~ c a m - c ~ P ~

Lower n t e r e s t Cost AssumptionsSenior Ta x Exempt Bond I n t e r e s t Rate Assumptions

6.00

5.00

4.00

3.00

2.00 -~-November 011LRTPInterestRate --January2013LRTPInterestRatetMoodysAnalyticsAaaBondYieldForecast UCLAAndersonAAAMunicipalBondlndex

1.00~- HS lobal n s i g h t AAA on d i e l d Forecast

0.00% -- -- -- . -m v ~ n ~ o ~ n o o r n o - i c ~ m v ~ n ~ n n o m o - i ~ v mTa n ~ o n o m oe- 1 NN -I . - - 1 e- V ri NN NN NN NN NN M MMM f M MM M MVNO O OO O OO O OONO OO O OO OOOOOOOOOO

LRTP i n a n c i a l Forecast Update& easure R r o j e c t Finance A c c e l e r a t i o n Plan P a g e 8


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Caltrans Statewide Highway Da t aEngineer's E stimate s v s . Low i ds a re N a r r o w i n g

DIVISION OFENGINEERING SERVICES EXECUTIVESUMMARYPERCENTAGE IFFERENCE BETWEENLQW ID(Shown n r e d )

ANDENGINEER'S ESTIMATEJANUARY 005THRUDECEMBER 012~:

- t a . a o

ao.00

ao s

ao00 -

-50.00 -MONTH

2005 2009 2013

LRTP i n a n c i a l Forecast Update & ea sure R r o j e c t Fin a n c e A c c e l e r a t i o n P l a n P ag e 9


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S t a t e of Good Repair study Ta x Exempt Financing o r ARTI Westside Subway PMOC stimate Regional Connector PMOC stimate I n t e r s t a t e 5 South(LACMTA} I n t e r s t a t e 5 South Others) I n t e r s t a t e 405 Northbound HOV a n e Exposition Light R a i l Extension A u t h o r i t y } E x p o s i t i o n Light R a i l Extension(LACMTA) Total

$ 750 M$ 410 M$ 178 M$ 33 M$ 153 M$ 50 M$ 75 M$ 32 M$ 7M$1,688M

1 . The LRTP i n a n c i a l F o r e c a s t i n c l u d e s o t h e r c o s t u p d a t e s a l r e a d y approve d by h e Board.6

S t a t e of Good Repair study o recommend c c e l e r a t e d s pend ing LRTP Update n c l u d e s " p o t e n t i a l funding c e n a r i o " d a t a i n o r a n g e(LRTP shows e a r of x p e n d i h t r e d o l l a r s , t h i s c h a r t shows Current o l l a r s ) A d d i t i o n a l b o r r o w i n g i s n e c e s s a r y t o meet h e s e needs


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Public/ P r i v a t e Partnership: Accelerated Regional Transportation Imp r ove me n t s( A R TI)Z.RTP UI1C~.111g ( B u s i n . e s s Case A n a l y s i s Pending)

A R T I LRTP P r o g r a m m e d Fu n d i n g(YOE)Cumulative o l l a r s i n M i l l i o n s

$1,400

$1,200

$1,000

$800

$600

$ ' } 0 0

$ 2 0 0

$00 7 ' ~ 07y 0 7 ' 1 O ' y ~ O ' l , ' O ' l ' ~ O ' 1 h O ' l 1 O ~ o f ~ . ~ ' y ~ , ~ ' ~ i ~ . ~ h 0 . ~ 1 O , ~ o it i t i t i t i t i t i t i t i t i t i t i t i t i t i

M e a s u r e R o s t Control Process a n d Policy A s s u m p t i o n s

Project PLOP'CP r o p C 08e a s e M e a s u r e R M e a s u r e R New Local Ne t Change25~ R e v e n u e 35% 20% Starts Funds

Expol(Expo $31.7 $31.7A u t h o r i t

$7.3xp o $7.3(tACMTA)F ~ c p o I ($39.00) $95.25 $0.00$5625-405 NB $`x.25 $75.00HOV $18.75

e s t s i d e ($95.25) ($95.25)q u i t y-5 0( S R 1 3 4- ($18.75) $18.75 $0.00S

- -~ SFV q u i t y ($18.75) ($18.75)

-5 Sou th $133.00 $153.00$20.00Ga t eway ($133.00) ($153.00)E q u i t y ($20.00)Wes i eS u b w a y $73.11 $99.60 $5.00

~ .$177.71a_ S e c . 1 -

Regionai $32.00 $1.00 $33.00ConnectorW i l s h i r e ($~~5.30) ($115.30)8RT

$ ~~ ~y: y C e n t r a l $10.19, : y ? Reserve$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $99.60 $6.00e t Change $105.6

LRTP i n a n c i a l Forecast Update & e a s u r e R r o j e c t Finance A c c e l e r a t i o n Plan P a g e 11


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I- 5 South Segmentation Funding a n d Costs~ 5 . . . - -

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~ j

_ ~,.~ilverbowAp~ a '~~605 t a oav o.PM .7 o 6.~ _ ;~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~ 9~ 3 ~~. 3 9~ IMPERVLLH~ ~_~~(

3 t f ~ ~Q~ ~w~s~POC ~nila Pd . VC~NOT VARTOF HE .. . -!f~~S 3 } 9 PM . 02 ~T[0276 $EGMEMNiION f~ ~ 105 ~{ ~~ \ l ~~ ~ ~ ~' .. S FOSECRANSAV

- 5 outh Program SummaryN.F. oyote Ck~M a w ~A ~ 2 ~

$ n M i l l i o n s N.f.Coyob kro LA .53U_,. ^ m~3f BUENAs o . 5 PARKZ. 3 ~

y BLRTESIA d.~~..~~~,..,:~~CP

~1

~ ~~~.~~: ~ . . ' ' ._ _ f ~ 3:` a 'o '~' ;~ ' . - ` V ~j 0 `~~ ~>

~3 ~ U lO~ CARSON ST lINCO~ AVE

P r o j e c t S e g m e n t ProgramA m o u n tE s t . at

CompletionC os t

Update-5 South Se . 99.2 99.2 0.0-5 South Se .2 443. 646.2 202.8

1-5 South Se .3 200.0 200. 0.0-5 South Se .4 353.7 353. 0.0-5 South Se .5 215. 215. TBD-5 South Carmenita 379.7 379. 0.0

TOTAL 1 6 9 1 . 1894.2 202.8

LRTP i n a n c i a l Forecast Update & easure R r o j e c t Finance A c c e l e r a t i o n Plan Page 1 2


14/39

2013 Countywide a l l o r P r o j e c t sPreliminary Modal a t e g o r i e s Funding Marks~ $~ o u s ~ a ~ ~

R e g i o n a l S u r f a c e T r a n s p o r t a t i o n ImprovementsGoods MovementT r a n s i t C a p i t a lT r a n s p o r t a t i o n A l t e r n a t i v e s ( f o r m e r l y "Enhancements") *S i g n a l S y n c h r o n i z a t i o n &Bus mprovementsR e g i o n a l Bikeways*P e d e s t r i a n Improvements*T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Demand Management(TDM)R e s e r v e(nc/uding Approved De-ob/ i g a t i o n s J

TOTALFUNDING MARK

19.4% $ 29,40017.5% $ 26,2501 0 . 1%$ 15,1501.8% $ 2,700

2 2 . 1%$ 33,15015.0% $ 22,5007.4% $ 11,1003.7% $ 5,5502.8% $ 53,500100% $ 199,300

LRTP i n a n c i a l Forecast Update& easure R r o j e c t Finance c c e l e r a t i o n Plan P a g e 13


15/39

L a r g e s t P r o j e c t s b y D o l l a r ValueTe n Largest ransit nd Highway rojectsMay 013(Y e ar f xpenditure(YOE) n m i l l i o n s )

Pro'ect

CostEstimatem i l l i o n s )

OpeningY e a r

Ex o s i t i o n Boulevard L i ht ail TransitPhase I e x c l ud es i ht a i l vehicles $ 1,309 FY 017G o ld Line o o t h i l l L i ht a i l Transit xtension ex c l ud es i ht a i l vehicles $ 786 FY 017Li ht a i l Vehicles $ 342 FY 017Crenshaw/LAXTransitCorridor $ 1,763 FY 019Re ionalConnector $ 1,399 FY 020Westside Subway xtension Segment $ 2,509 FY 023

La r estTransitPro'ectsSubtotal $ 8,108I n t e r s t a t e 405 orthbound Ca r oo l L a n e s ro m n t e r s t a t e 10 o US-101 $ 1,149 FY 074I n t e r s t a t e 5 orth Ca r o ol L anes ro m State R o u t e 170 o State R o u t e 134 $ 608 FY 016I n t e r s t a t e 5 o u t h from Oran e Coun Line to n t e r s t a t e 605 includes Carmenita Interchan e $ 1,894 FY 017I n t e r s t a t e 10 Ca r oo l L a n e s ro m n t e r s t a t e 605 o State R o u t e 57 $ 578 FY 018Alam eda Corridor Ea st $ 1,446 FY 012+

Lar est Hi hwa Pr o cts ubtotal $ 5,674GRANDTOTAL $ 3,~sZ

LRTP i n a n c i a l Forecast Update & e a s u r e R r o j e c t Finance c c e l e r a t i o n Plan P a g e 14


16/39

LongangeransportationlaninancialForecast

ExpositionoulevardihtailTransitP

Pro'ectundinComparisonexcludeshtailvehicles)

Prior

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

($nmillions)

2073

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Total

Afovember011

PropositionA

28.5

28.5

PropositionC

40.9

40.9

LocalAgencyunds

42.1

42.1

Proposition1TMISEA~3~

133.3

133.3

TrafficCongestioneliefrogram

249,g

249.8

Regionalmprovementrogram

314.5

314.5

Section309us&

RelatedFacilities

0.5

0.5

C

STP~4~

73.8

73.8

Total

883.4

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

883.4

AfM

013

PropositionA

28.5

28.5

PropositionC

99.1

31.7

130.8

MLocalAgencyunds

42.1

42.1

NProposition1TMISEA~3~

133.3

133.3

~TrafficCongestioneliefrogram

249.8

249.8

~Regionalmpro~,ementrogram

314.5

314.5

Section5309us&

elatedFacilities

0.5

0.5

C

STP~4>

15.6

15.6

Total

883.4

0.0

31.7

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

915.1

Change~s~

PropositionA

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

PropositionC

58.2

-

31.7

-

-

-

-

-

89.9

a~

LocalAgencyunds

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-


-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

~TrafficCongestioneliefrogram

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

URegionalmprovementrogram

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Section5309us&

RelatedFacilities

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

C

STP~4~

(58.2)

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

(58.2)

Total

-

-

31.7

-

-

-

-

-

31.7

v m


17/39

L

ransportationlaninancialorecast

ExpositionoulevardightailTransitPhaseProjectundingCm

Prior

2012

2013

2014

($nmillions)

2013

2014

2015

AfNovember011

PropositionA

2.2

205.5

25.0

5.3

PropositionC

12.2

2.4

100.8

MeasureR

422.6

69.2

97.0

220.7

LocalAgencyunds

4.2

18.4

Proposition1BTMISEA~3~

48.9

Proposition16LPP~B~


47.8

Total

533.7

277.1

227.0

244.4

onexcludesL

2015

2016

2017

2016

2017

2018

4.2

12.7

10.1

6.9

10.1

0.0

2018

2019Total

238.0

115.3

813.7

45.3

48.9

47.8

0.0

1,309.1

AfM

013

PropositionA

88.7

-

114.9

15.5

10.1

229.3

MPropositionC

0.6

0.6

oMeasureR

203.0

131.3

327.1

247.5

908.9

NLocalAgencyunds

2.5

13.6

27.9

1.4

45.3


14.1

0.3

34.6

48.9

Proposition1BLPP~B~

28.3

28.3

RegionalImpro~mentrogram

9.3

26.0

12.5

47.8

Total

217.7

232.0

395.0

437.4

16.9

10.1

0.0

0.0

1,09.1

Change~s~

PropositionA

(2.2)

(116.8)

(25.0)

109.6

15.5

10.1

-

-

(8.8)

PropositionC

(11.6)

(2.4)

(100.8)

-

-

-

-

-

(114.7)

rn

MeasureR

(219.6)

62.1

230.1

26.8

(4.2)

-

-

-

95.2

~LocalAgencyunds

-

2.5

9.4

9.5

(11.3)

(10.1)

-

-

(0.0)

VProposition16TMISEA~3~

(34.8)

0.3

-

34.6

-

-

-

-

0.0

Proposition16LPP~B~

-

-

28.3

-

-

-

-

-

28.3

Regionalmpro~mentrogram

(47.8)

9.3

26.0

12.5

-

-

-

-

-

Total

(316.0)

(45.0)

168.1

193.0

0.0

-

-

-

0.0

m


18/39

Longangeransportationlaninancialorecast

GoldineoothillLightailTransitxtensionrojecthase

undingomparisonexcludesL

Prior

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

($nmillions)

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Total

Afovember011

PropositionA5%

42.1

33.5

75.6

MeasureR5%

137.6

180.5

196.7

98.8

28.0

26.0

2.0

1.0

670.5

LocalAgencyunds

2.5

23.0

25.5

Section5309us&BuselatedFacilitiesEarmark

15.0

15.0

Total

152.6

183.0

219.7

98.8

28.0

26.0

44.1

34.5

786.6

AfM

013

M

PropositionA5%

16.7

22.3

8.1

28.5

75.6

MeasureR5%

232.2

128.7

165.2

123.9

20.6

670.5

~LocalAgencyunds

25.5

25.5

~Section5309us&BuselatedFacilitiesEarmark

15.0

15.0

Total

247.2

128.7

190.7

123.9

37.3

22.3

8.1

28.5

786.6

Change~s~

~PropositionA5%

-

-

-

-

16.7

22.3

(34.0)

(5.0)

(0.0)

MeasureR5%

94.6

(51.8)

(31.5)

25.1

(7.4)

(26.0)

(2.0)

(1.0)

0.0

~LocalAgencyunds

-

(2.5)

2.5

-

-

-

-

-

-

VSection5309us&BusRelatedFacilitiesEarmark

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Total

94.6

(54.3)

(29.0)

25.1

9.3

(3.7)

(36.0)

(6.0)

(0.0)

m m


19/39

0o' v m

L

ransportationlaninancialorecast

P3010ightailVehiclesundingomparison

($nmillions)

Prior

2012

2013

2013

2014

2014

2015

2015

2016

2016

2017

2018

2017

2018

2019

Total

AfN

011

''s~r~

PropositionA

0.0

0.0

PropositionC

0.1

0.1

MeasureR

fromGoldineFoothillExten.)

7.1

6.0

10.6

28.4

12.4

64.5

MeasureR2

-

r

Otherocal~2~

-

LocalAgencyunds

0.0

0.0


1.8

2.8

0.6

5.2

RegionalImprovementrogram

3.0

21.9

27.8

122.1

27.0

201.9

=C

Q&STP~4>

25.9

1.8

7.7

0.0

28.3

63.7

Total

38.0

32.5

46.1

150.5

68.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

335.4

AfM

013

PropositionA3

0.0

-

-

-

-

7.1

7.1

PropositionC

0.1

0.1

MeasureR


11.5

13.1

14.1

20.1

5.3

64.1

~

MeasureR2

0.4

0.4

oNOtherocal~2~

c

LocalAgencyunds

0.0

0.0

~Proposition1TMISEA~3~

2.1

3.1

5.2


7.0

45.4

47.0

75.4

-

27.0

201.9

C

Q&STP~4~

14.2

-

41.7

7.7

-

63.6

Total

23.4

60.1

101.8

89.5

27.8

39.8

0.0

0.0

342.4

Change~s~

PropositionA3

0.0

-

-

-

-

7.1

-

-

7.1

PropositionC

(0.0)

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

(0.0)

MeasureR3


(7.1)

5.5

2.5

(14.3)

7.7

5.3

-

-

(0.4)

~MeasureR2

-

-

-

-

-

0.4

-

-

0.4

cOtherocal~2~

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

~StateepaymentfapitalrojectsFund562

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

VLocalAgencyunds

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Proposition1BITVIISEA~3~

0.3

0.3

-

-

(0.6)

-

-

-

(0.0)


3.9

23.5

19.2

(46.7)

(27.0)

27.0

-

-

(0.0)

C

Q&STP~4~

(11.7)

(1.8)

34.0

-

(20.6)

-

-

-

(0.1)

Total

(14.6)

27.6

55.7

(61.0)

(40.5)

39.8

-

-

7.0


20/39

Long Range ransportation Plan Financial F orec astCrenshaw/LAX Transk Corridor Project Fun d i n g C omuarison includes i g h t a i l vehicles)($ n m i l l i o n s )

Prior 20122013

20132014

20142015

20152016

20162017

20172018

20182019

20192020 Total

As f November 011P r o p o s i t i o n A 35% 4. 8 4. 8P r o p o s i t i o n C 25% 4.2 14.7 102.6 26.6 0. 9 148.9P r o p o s i t i o n C40%Measure R o n ds BABs -Measure R 35% 1 7 . 1 246.3 234.8 142.8 16.5 3.6 661.1Measure R 35% 1 F I A L o a n ~ ' ~ 139.9 309.1 96.6 0.3 545.9Local Agency Funds 51.4 1.0 52.4Other Local C a l l f o r P r o j e c t s )P r o p o s i t i o n 16 TMISEA~3~ 3 9 . 1 131.8 30.3 201.2P r o p o s i t i o n 16 LPP~e~ -Regional Improvement Program 2. 3 34.4 36.7TIGER I -CMAQ& STP~4~ 14.2 74.0 88.2Section 5309 Bu s &Bus- R e l a t e d F a c i l i t i e s Earmark 8. 6 8. 6Other t f f i e & e d e r a l ~ s ~ 1.2 1.2T o t a l 77.3 131.8 291.3 385.9 408.1 309.1 124.2 17.7 3.6 1,749.0

As f May 01 3P r o p o s i t i o n A35% 4. 8 43.3 2. 3 50.4P r o p o s i t i o n C25% 3.8 1 1 . 1 18.4 3. 6 2. 3 39.2P r o p o s i t i o n C40% -Measure RBonds BABs 17.4 17.4Measure R35% 26.2 1.9 49.5 1 5 7 . 1 46.7 161.7 1 9 4 . 1 6. 5 643.6

c ' ~ Measure R35% 1 F I A L o a n ~ ~ ~ - - - 337.4 208.5 - - 545.9N Local Agency Funds 52.9 5Z.9T Other L o c a l ( C a l l f o r P r o j e c t s ) -

P r o p o s i t i o n 1B PTMISEA~3~ 6. 2 10.4 46.8 137.8 201.2P r o p o s i t i o n 1B SLPP~B~ 49.5 49.5Regional Improvement Program 2.4 - - 34.4 36.8TIGER I 13.9 13.9CMAQ& STP~4~ 58.2 24.0 20.0 102.2Section 5309 Bu s &Bus-R e l a t e d F a c i l i t i e s Earmark 7 . 1 1.5 8. 6Other State& e d e r a i ~ s ~ 1.2 1.2T o t a l 64.3 90.7 169.8 306.0 402.5 408.2 310.3 1 1 . 1 0. 0 1 , 7 6 2 . 8

Change~s~P r o p o s i t i o n A 35% (4.8) 4.8 - - - - 43.3 2. 3 - 45.6P r o p o s i t i o n C25% (0.4) - (14.~ (91.5) 18.4 3.6 (26.6) 1.5 - (109.7)P r o p o s i t i o n C40% - - - - - - - - - -Measure RBonds BABs 77.4 - - - - - - - - 17.4Measure R35% 9 . 1 1 . 9 (196. 8) (77. 7) (96.1) 161.7 1 9 4 . 1 (10.0) ( 3 . 6 ) (17.4)Measure R35% I F I A L o a n ~ ~ ~ - - - - 197.5 (100.6) (96.6) (0.3) - (0.0)~ Local Agency F unds - - - - (51.4) - 51.9 - - 0. 5

~ Other Local G a i l f o r P r o j e c t s ) - - - - - - - - - -V P r o p o s i t i o n 16 TMISEA~3~ (32.9) (121.4) 16.5 137.8 - - - - - (0.0)

P r o p o s i t i o n 16 LPP~B~ - - 49.5 - - - - - - 49.5Regional Improvement Program 0 . 1 - - (34.4) - 34.4 - - - 0 . 111GER I - 13.9 - - - - - - - 13.9CMAQ& STP~4~ - 582 24.0 (14. 2) (74. 0) - 20.0 - - 14.0Section 5309 Bus &Bus-Related F a c i l i t i e s Earmark (1.5) 1.5 - - - - - - - (0.0)Other State8 e d e r a l ~ s ~ - - - - - - - - -T o t a l ( 13. 0) ( 41. 1) (121.5) (79.9) (5.6) 99.1 186.2 (6.6) ( 3 . 6 ) 13.9

LRTP i n a n c i a l Forecast Update& easure R r o j e c t Finance A c c e l e r a t i o n Plan Page 19


21/39

d mNO


Regionalonnectorrojectundingomparison

($inillions)

Prior

2012

2013

2013

2014

2014

2015

2015

2016

2016

2017

2017

2018

2018

2019

2019

2020

2020

2021

Total

Asfovember011

PropositionA

-

PropositionC

-

MeasureR

1.2

48.0

38.7

42.6

39.3

(9.8)

159.9

MeasureR

IFIALoan~'~

Otherocal~2~

0.2

15.3

42.6

12.1

70.2

StateRepaymentfapitalrojectsund562

69.2

9.3

19.3

22.5

39.9

(64.6)

95.5

LocalAgencyunds

23.8

1.1

16.1

41.0

Proposition1BTMISEA~3~

7.5

7.6

31.1

50.8

52.5

149.5

Proposition1AighpeedailBonds

10.5

34.4

70.0

114.9


2.0

44.3

46.3

C

&SlP~4~

17.5

17.5

Section309ewtarts

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

62.0

9.3

671.3

Othertate&ederal~5~

-

Totai

71.4

124.6

181.1

248.3

280.7

193.4

207.9

49.4

9.3

0.0

1,366.0

Asfay013

PropositionA

0.8

4.8

PropositionC

MeasureR

-

MeasureR

IFIALoan~'~

1.2

60.7

55.9

42.2

160.0

MOtherocal~2~

0.3

-

15.9

26.6

34.6

0.6

0.2

78.1

oStateRepaymentfapitalrojectsund562

50.3

-

12.1

30.5

9.8

21.9

10.2

8.7

(50.3)

24.2

117.2

NLocalAgencyunds

0.0

42.0

42.0


0.0

64.8

22.5

36.9

25.3

149.5

Proposition1AighpeedaiiBonds

0.0

68.6

22.3

24.0

114.9


2.6

2.6

C

&STP~4~

64.0

-

-

-

-

64.0

Section309ewtarts

31.0

65.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

73.9

669.9

Othertate&ederal~s~

Total

53.9

32.2

202.5

237.5

210.6

252.0

134.3

227.5

24.2

24.3

1,399.0

Change~e~

PropositionA

0.8

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

0.8

PropositionC

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

MeasureR

-

-

(1.2)

(48.0)

(38.7)

(42.6)

(39.3)

9.8

-

-

(159.9)

MeasureR

IFIALoan~'~

-

1.2

60.7

-

-

55.9

-

42.2

-

-

160.0

Otheroca1~2~

0.1

(15.3)

(42.6)

3.8

-

26.6

-

34.6

0.6

0.2

7.9

StateRepaymentfapitalProjectsund562

(18.9)

(9.3)

(7.2)

8.1

(30.1)

21.9

10.2

73.3

(50.3)

24.2

21.7

cp

LocalAgencyunds

-

-

-

(23.8)

(1.1)

-

(16.1)

42.0

-

-

1.1


-

-

57.3

14.9

5.8

(25.5)

(52.5)

-

-

-

(0.0)

Proposition1AighpeedaiiBonds

-

-

(10.5)

34.2

(70.0)

22.3

24.0

-

-

-

(0.0)

Regionalmpro~,ementrogram

0.6

-

-

-

-

-

-

(44.3)

-

-

(43.7)

C

SlP~4~

-

-

-

-

64.0

-

-

(17.5)

-

-

46.5

Section309ewtarts

-

(69.0)

(35.0)

-

-

-

-

38.0

64.6

-

(1.4)

Othertate&ederal~5~

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Total

(17.5)

(92.4)

21.4

(10.7)

(70.1)

58.6

(73.6)

178.1

14.9

24.3

33.0


22/39

0o' n T'm nm Dn ~'o NN0 w m


WestsideS

xtensionrojectundingomparisonSection1

Prior

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

20242025

($inillions)

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

20252026

Total

Asfovember011

PropositionA

PropositionC5/a

_ _

MeasureR

10.5

0.0

169.5

85.6

0.0

0.0

0.0

104.4

370.0

MeasureR

1FIALoan~~~

282.D

182.0

113.3

63.5

640.8

Otherocal~2~

6.0

2.5

8.5

StateRepaymentfapitalrojectsFund562

115.8

0.0

(104.4)

11.3

LocalAgencyunds

34.2

29.4

62

69.9


-


2.9

Z,g

C

STP~4~

4.4

45.7

12.1

15.4

77.7

Section309ewtarts

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

50.4

1,150.4

Sect339ltemati~esnalysis

Othertate&ederal~s~

Total

124.7

113.0

100.0

269.5

219.8

415.9

333.9

225.4

178.8

100.0

100.0

100.0

50.4

0.0

0.0

2,331.4

AsfM

013

PropositionA

PropositionC2

MeasureR

26.8

82.8

0.0

0.0

0.0

5.5

2.8

0.0

6.7

63.7

0.0

0.0

0.0

188.4

MeasureR

1FIALoan~'~

340.7

305.7

201.6

S.0

856.0

MOtherocal~2~

6.6

1.3

36.0

46.0

89.9

pStateRepaymentfapitalrojectsund562

82.4

(53.9)

28.5

NLocalAgencyunds

70.4

4.5

74.9


-


2.6

2.6

C

STP~~

13.2

4.4

0.9

18.5

Section309ewtarts

50.0

65.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

35.0

1,250.0

Sect339ltematieesnalysis

0.5

0.5

Othertate&ederal~s~

-

Total

92.0

76.8

149.0

136.0

159.2

104.4

447.1

408.5

301.6

185.1

114.3

100.0

100.0

100.0

35.0

2,509.1

Change~e~

PropositionA

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

PropositionC2

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

MeasureR

-

16.3

82.8

(169.5)

(85.6)

-

5.5

2.8

(104.4)

6.7

63.7

0.0

-

-

-

(181.6)

Measure

1FIALoan~'~

-

-

-

-

-

(282.0)

158.7

192.4

138.1

S.0

-

-

-

-

-

215.2

Otherocal~2~

0.6

(2.5)

1.3

36.0

46.0

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

81.4

StateRepaymentfapitalrojectsFund562

(33.4)

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

104.4

-

(53.9)

-

-

-

-

17.1

LLocalAgencyunds

-

-

-

-

(34.2)

(29.4)

(6.2)

-

-

70.4

4.5

-

-

-

-

5.0


-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

_

_


(0.3)

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

(0.3)

C

STP~4~

-

-

-

-

13.2

(0.1)

(44.8)

(12.1)

(15.4)

-

-

-

-

-

-

(59.2)

Section309ewtarts

-

(50.0)

(35.0)

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

49.6

100.0

35.0

99.6

Sect339ltematieesnalysis

0.5

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

0.5

Othertate&ederel~s~

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Total

(32.7)

(36.1)

49.0

(133.5)

(60.6)

(311.5)

113.2

183.1

122.8

85.1

14.3

0.0

49.6

100.0

35.0

177.7


23/39

Long Range ransportation Plan Financial ForecastI..+e.~*~+o G JnhF.(`~~nnnl ~.,o~ ~ . , ~ ct a t p RnutP 17n to State Route134 roject Funding Comparison

($ n m i l l i o n s )Prior 2012

201320132014

20142015

20152016

20162017

20772018

20182019 Total

As f November 017P r o p o s i t i o n C 25% 67.2 104.3 65.6 32.0 269.1P r o p o s i t i o n C 10%Measure R 20%Local Agency FundsP r o p o s i t i o n 16 M I A ~ ~ ~ 23.7 21.9 21.9 5.5 73.0P r o p o s i t i o n 16 LPP~a~ 20.0 11.2 3~.zP r o p o s i t i o n 16 Highway- R a i l r o a d Crossing S a f e t yT r a f f i c Congestion R e l i e f Program -CMAQ& STP~4~ 122.3 122.3Regional Improvement Program 175.0 175.0Other State & e d e r a i ~ s ~ 63.3 63.3To Be etermined Highway S t r a t e g y FundingT o t a l 447.8 115.5 65.6 55.7 21.9 21.9 5.5 0.0 733.9

As f May 013P r o p o s i t i o n C 25% 60.8 89.4 47.4 32.0 229.4P r o p o s i t i o n C 10% ~8~$ 188Measure R 20%Local Agency FundsP r o p o s i t i o n 1B C M I A ~ ~ ~ - 3.0 23.7 10.6 21.9 5.5 64.7P r o p o s i t i o n 1B SLPP~s) 1 3 . 1 1 3 . 1P r o p o s i t i o n 1B Highway-R a i l r o a d Crossing S a f e t y -g T r a f f i c Congestion R e l i e f Program -CMAQ& STP~" ~ 102.0 102.0Regional Improvement Program 139.3 139.3Other State & e d e r a l ~ s ~ 41.0 41.0To Be etermined Highway S t r a t e g y FundingT o t a l 343.1 102.5 69.1 55.7 10.6 21.9 5.5 0.0 608.2

Change~6~P r o p o s i t i o n C 25% ( 6 . 5 ) (14.9) (18.3) (0.0) - - - - (39.7)P r o p o s i t i o n C 10% - - ~8~$ - - - 188Measure R 20% - - - - - - ~ -Locai Agenc y Funds - - - - - - - -

N P r o p o s i t i o n 16 M I A ~ ~ ~ - - 3.0 0.0 (11.4) - (0.0) - ( 8 . 4 )~ P r o p o s i t i o n 1B LPP~e~ (20.0) 1.9 - - - - - - ~ 1 8 ~ ~ ).c P r o p o s i t i o n 16 Highway-R a i l r o a d Crossing S a f e t y - - - - - - - - -V T r a f f i c Congestion R e l i e f Program - - - - - - - - -

CMAQ& STP~4~ (20.3) - - - - - - - (20.3)Regional I m p r o ~ , e m e n t Program (35.7) - - - - - - - (35.7)Other State& e d e r a l ~ s ~ (22.3) - - - - ~ 2 2 . 3 ~To Be etermined Highway S t r a t e g y Funding - - - - - - - - -T o t a l (104.8) (13.0) 3.5 (0.0) (11.4) - ( 0 . 0 ) - (125.7)

LRTP i n a n c i a l Forecast Update & easure R r o j e c t Finance A c c e l e r a t i o n Plan Page 22


24/39

m mNW

Longangeransportationlaninancialorecast

Interstate405orthboundarpoolanesromnterstate10oU101Projectundingomparison

($nmillions)

Prior

2012

2013

2013

2014

2014

2015

2015

2016

2016

2017

2017

2018

2078

2019

Total

Af

011

PropositionC

7.0

6.0

13.0

PropositionC

-

MeasureR

-

LocalAgencyunds

6.0

6.0

Proposition1BMIA~'~

281.2

281.8

51.0

614.0

Proposition1LPP~B~

-

Proposition1Bighway-ailroadCrossingafety

-

TrafficCongestioneliefProgram

50.0

8.0

8.0

8.0

8.0

8.0

90.0

CQ&STP~4~

10.1

10.1


-

Othertate&ederal~5~

285.7

21.2

306.9

ToeeterminedighwaytrategyFunding

Total

634.0

317.0

65.0

8.0

8.0

8.0

0.0

0.0

1,040.0

AfM

013

PropositionC

6.0

7.0

75.0

88.0

PropositionC

-

MeasureR

-

LocalAgencyunds

2.6

3.7

6.3

rProposition1BMW~~~

281.2

281.8

77.1

640.1

NProposition1LPP~e~

-

Proposition1Bighway-ailroadCrossingafety

-

gTrafficCongestioneliefProgram

50.0

8.0

8.0

8.0

8.0

S.0

90.0

CQ&STP~4~

10.1

10.1


-

Othertate&ederai~5~

293.7

21.2

314.9


-

Total

637.6

317.0

92.1

86.7

8.0

8.0

0.0

0.0

1,149.4

Change~fi~

PropositionC

(7.0)

-

7.0

75.0

-

-

-

-

75.0

PropositionC

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

MeasureR

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

LocalAgencyunds

2.6

-

(6.0)

3.7

-

-

-

-

0.3

~Proposition1MIA~~~

-

-

26.1

-

-

-

-

-

26.1

c~

Proposition1BLPP~B~

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

~Proposition1Bighway-RailroadCrossingafety

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

VTrafficCongestioneliefProgram

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

CQ&STP~4~

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Regionaimprovementrogram

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Othertate&ederal~5~

8.0

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

8.0


-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Total

3.6

-

27.1

78.7

-

-

-

-

109.4


25/39

Long Range Transportation Plan Financial ForecastI n t e r s t a t e 10 arpool Lanes rom n t e r s t a t e 605 o State Route57 roject unding Comparison($ n m i l l i o n s )

Prior 20122013

20132074

20142015

20152016

20162017

2017 20182018 2019 Total

As f November 071P r o p o s i t i o n C 5% 2 . 1 20.0 26.0 4. 7 52.8P r o p o s i t i o n C 0% -Measure R 20% -Local Agency Funds -P r o p o s i t i o n 16 MIA~~~ 26.1 26.1P r o p o s i t i o n 1B LPP~B~P r o p o s i t i o n 1B Highway-R a i l r o a d Crossing Safety -T r a f f i c Congestion R e l i e f Program (TCRP)' 27.6 20.6 20.6 20.6 89.4TCRP e t t e r of No rejudice(LONP) -CMAQ & STP~4~ 86.4 33.9 84.8 205.1Regional Impro~,ement Program 171.5 23.1 194.6Other tate& e d e r a l ~ s ~ 4. 9 4. 9To Be etermined Highway Strategy Funding -T o t a l 318.6 33.9 84.8 63.7 46.6 25.3 0.0 0.0 573.0

As f May 013P r o p o s i t i o n C25% 2 . 1 26.1 20.0 26.0 4. 7 78.9P r o p o s i t i o n C 0% -Measure R20% -~ Local Agency Funds -o P r o p o s i t i o n 1B CMIA~~~ -~r o p o s i t i o n 16 LPP~ B~ -~ P r o p o s i t i o n 16 ighway-R a i l r o a d Crossing Safety -T r a f f i c Congestion R e l i e f Program (TCRP)` 27.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.6TCRP LONP` -~ CMAQ & STP~4~ 60.3 90.3 67.6 13.2 1.3 232.7Regional Improvement Program 171.5 23.1 194.6Other tate& e d e r a l ~ s ~ 9.5 34.2 43.7To Be etermined Highway Strategy Funding -T o t a l 271.0 116.4 101.8 43.1 39.2 6.0 0.0 0.0 577.5

Change~fi~P r o p o s i t i o n C 5% - 26.1 - - - - - - 26.1P r o p o s i t i o n C 0% - - - - - - - - -Measure R 20% - - - - - - - - -Local Agency Funds - - - - - - - - -P r o p o s i t i o n 16 MIA~~~ (26.1) - - - - - - - (26.1)

rn P r o p o s i t i o n 16 LPP~e~ - - - - - - - - -m P r o p o s i t i o n iB Highway-R a i l r o a d Crossing Safety - - - - - - - - -V T r a f f i c Congestion R e l i e f Program(TCRP)' - - - (20.6) (20.6) (20.6) - - (61.8)

TCRP LONP~ - - - - - - - - -CMAQ & SlP~4~ (26.1) 56.4 (17.2) - 13.2 1.3 - - 27.6Regional Imp rovement Program - - - - - - - - -Other tate& e d e r a l ~ s ~ 4. 6 - 34.2 - - - - - 38.8T o Be etermined Highway Strategy Funding - - - - - - - - -T o t a l (47.6) 82.5 17.0 (20.6) (7.4) (19.3) - - 4.5

LRTP i n a n c i a l Forecast Update & easure R r o j e c t Finance c c e l e r a t i o n Plan Page 24


26/39

LongRangeransportation Plan Financial F orec astI n t e r s t a t e 5 o ut h fromOr a nge County Line toI n t e r s t a t e 605includes Car men ita Intercha nge) Pr oject Fund ingComp a r i s o n( $ n m i l l i o n s )

Pri or 201 220 13

20 1320 14

201 42015

20 1520 16

20 162017

201 7 201 8201 8 20 79 Tot al

Asf November 011p r o p o s i t i o n C25% 107. 8 141.5 57.8 39. 7 346.8P r o p o s i t i o n C 0%MeasureR20% -Lo cal Ag en c y F un ds 0.5 0.5P r o p o s i t i o n 16 M I A ~ ~ ~ 387.0 387.0P r o p o s i t i o n 1B SLPP~e~ 14.9 62.7 77. 6P r o p o s i t i o n 1B Hi ghw ay-R a i l r o a d Cro ssing S a f e t yT r a f f i c Co ngestion R e l i e f Pr ogra m 116.7 19.8 19.8 19. 8 19.8 196. 0CMAQ& STP ~4 ~ 84.4 44. 2 33. 3 161 .9Re gionalIm provemen t Pr ogr am 251.1 66.1 54. 9 22.7 394.8Ot her Sta te & e d e r a l ~ s ~ 31.7 15.6 5.4 3.2 55.9To Be etermine d Hi ghw ay S t r a t e g y Funding" -T o t a l 994.1 305.7 137.9 85.4 64.0 33.3 0.0 0.0 1 , 6 2 0 . 4

As f May 01 3P r o p o s i t i o n C25% 206. 9 136 .6 82.1 1 4 . 1 02 439. 8P r o p o s i t i o n C10% -Me asureR20% 153.0 153. 0L o c a l Ag enc y F unds 0.5 0.5P r o p o s i t i o n 16 MIA~~ ~ 315.0 315.0

N P r o p o s i t i o n 16 LPP~B~ 14. 9 0.0 14.9P r o p o s i t i o n 16 ig hw ay-R a i l r o a d Cro ss ingS a f e t y -g T r a f i c Co ngestionR e l i e f Pr og ram 116.7 19.8 19.8 19. 8 19. 8 196.0CMAQ & STP~4 ~ 84. 4 111.6 196.0Re gional Im pro.ement Progr am 235.3 57.0 8 9 . 1 42.3 10.2 433.9Ot her State & e d e r a l ~ s ~ 36. 0 22.6 33.4 3.2 0. 0 95. 2To Beetermi ne d Hi ghw ay S t r a t e g y Funding" 50.0 50. 0T o t a l 1, 009.6 236 .0 336.1 79. 4 183.2 50.0 0.0 0.0 1, 894.3

C h a n g e ~ f i ~P r o p o s i t i o n C5% 99.1 ( 4 . 9 ) 24.3 (25.6) 0.2 - - - 9 3 . 1P r o p o s i t i o n C10% - - - - - - - - -Mea sur e R20% - - - - 153.0 - - - 153.0L o c a l Ag en cy Funds 0.0 - - - - - - - 0. 0~ P r o p o s i t i o n 1B MIA~~ ~ (72.0) - - - - - - - (72.0)

~ P r o p o s i t i o n 1BSLPP~B~ 0. 0 (62.7) - - - - - - (62.7)~ P r o p o s i t i o n 1B Hig hway-R a i l r o a d Cr ossingS a f e t y - - - - - - - - -U T r a f f i c Con gestion R e l i e f Pr ogr am - - - - - - - - -CMAQ ~ RSTP ~4 ~ - - 111. 6 - (44.2) (33.3 ) - - 3 4 . 1Re gional I m p r o ~ , e m e n t Pr ogr am (15 .8) ( 9 . 1 ) 34.2 19.6 10.2 - - - 3 9 . 1Ot her State & e d e r a l ~ s ~ 4. 3 7.0 28.0 - - - - - 39.3ToBe etermine d Highwa y S t r a t e g y Funding*' - - - - - 50. 0 - - 50.0T o t a l 15.6 (69.7) 1 9 8 . 1 (6.0) 119.2 16.7 - - 273. 9

LRTP i n a n c i a l Forecas t Up date& easureRr o j e c t Finance A c c e l e r a t i o n Plan Pa ge25


27/39

v mN


AlamedaorridorastrojectFundingomparison

($inillions)

Prior

2012

2013

2013

2014

2074

2015

2015

2016

2016

2017

2017

2018

2078

2019

Total

AfNv

011

PropositionC

155.3

82.5

25.1

7.9

270.8

PropositionC

1.9

1.9

MeasureR

96.2

60.0

54.9

79.1

59.8

50.0

400.0

LocalAgencyunds

p

Proposition1BMIA~~~

Proposition1radeorridorsmpro~,ementund

Proposition1BighwayRailroadCrossingafety

25.6

25.6

TrafficCongestioneliefProgram

72.2

72.2

CQ&STP~4~

-

RegionalImpro~,ementrogram

-

Othertate&ederal~5~

254.2

254.2

To

eterminedighwaytrategyFunding

50.0

100.0

50.0

39.0

30.0

22.0

80.0

371.0

Total

655.4

242.5

130.0

126.0

89.8

72.0

80.0

0.0

1,395.7

AfM

013

PropositionC

107.4

34.7

24.0

24.5

23.2

21.0

11.0

245.8

PropositionC

-

MeasureR

29.5

35.3

69.5

79.7

80.0

80.0

25.9

400.0

LocaiAgencyunds

4.0

8.0

-

5.1

-

5.1

22.2

MProposition1BMIA~~~

NProposition1Bradeorridorsmpro~,ementund

94.0

73.2

40.2

74.1

92.7

374.2

Proposition1BighwayRailroadCrossingafety

13.4

5.1

-

18.5

~TrafficCongestioneliefProgram

146.5

146.5

CQ&STP~4~

-


Othertate&ederal~s~

193.4

33.0

6.6

-

5.5

238.5

To


-

Total

476.8

201.0

174.7

144.4

202.4

198.8

47.5

0.0

1,445.6

Change~s~

PropositionC

(48.0)

(47.8)

(1,1)

16.6

23.2

21.0

11.0

-

(25.1)

PropositionC

(1.9)

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

(1.9)

MeasureR

(66.7)

(24.7)

14.6

0.6

20.2

30.0

25.9

-

(0.0)

LocalAgencyunds

-

4.0

8.0

-

5.1

-

5.1

-

22.2

a~

Proposition1BMIA~~>

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

cProposition1Bradeorridorsmpro~,ementund

-

94.0

73.2

40.2

74.1

92.7

-

-

374.2

LProposition1ighway-RailroadCrossingafety

(25.6)

-

-

-

13.4

5.1

-

-

(7.1)

VTrafficCongestioneliefProgram

74.3

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

74.3

CQ&STP~4~

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-


-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Othertate&ederal~5~

(60.8)

33.0

-

-

6.6

-

5.5

-

(15.7)

To


(50.0)

(100.0)

(50.0)

(39.0)

(30.0)

(22.0)

(80.0)

-

(371.0)

Total

(178.6)

(41.5)

44.7

18.4

112.6

126.8

(32.5)

-

49.9


28/39

P r o j e c t Funding ComparisonsLong Range ransportation Pian Financial ForecastProject Funding Comparison

Notes(1 ) IFIA= r a n s p o r t a t i o n Infraswaure Finance An d I n n o v a t i o n Ac t(2 ) ther o c a l inGudes Lease Revenues, o c a l TranspoAation Funds an d TranspoAation Development c t .(3 )PTMISEA= u b l i c T r a n s p o r t a t i o n M o d e r n i z a t i o n , Improvement, nd e r v i c e Enhancement Account(4 )CMAQ= ongestion M d i g a t i o n an d A i r Q u a l i t y ; RSTP= egional Surface r a n s p o r t a t i o n Program.(5 ) ther t a t e &Federal n c l u d e s High Speed R a i l Bonds, e c t i o n 5309 Bus& us -R e l a t e d , S e c t i o n 5339, Metro an d C a l t r a n s American

Recovery an d Reinvestment Act of2009 unds, t a t e Highway Operationan d P r o t e c t i o n Program S H O P P ), r a n s p o r t a t i o n A l t e r n a t i v e s(TAP),an d I n t e r r e g i o n a l Improvement Program I I P ) .

(6 ) hanges n c l u d e LACMTA oard of i r e c t o r s d i r e c t e d changes by p e c i f i c a c t i o n o r p o l i c y ) an d CEO elegated a u t h o r i t y changes.(7 )CMIA= o r r i d o r M o b i l i t y Improvement Account(8 )SLPP= t a t e - L o c a l P a r t n e r s h i p Program Account

L e f t Blank o r P a g i n a t i o n Purposes

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ATTACHMENTB

Long Range ransportation Plan Financial Forecast UpdateCost Management rocess a nd Policy Evaluation

IntroductionT he Mea s ure R os t Management Process and P o l i c y ( P o l i c y ) wa s adopted by theLACMTA oard of i r e c t o r s i n March 2011. T he n t e n t of he o l i c y i s t o i n f o r m theLACMTA oard of i r e c t o r s r e g a r d i n g p o t e n t i a l cost increases o Measure R-fundedp r o j e c t s a nd the t r a t e g i e s a v a i l a b l e t o close a ny unding gaps. LACMTA t a f f ha si d e n t i f i e d the -5 South P r o j e c t , -405 Sepulveda P a s s Improvements r o j e c t I-405P r o j e c t ) , the E x p o s i t i o n L i g h t R a i l L i n e Phase (Expo Phase ) , Regional Connector,a nd Westside S u b w a y Extension a s r o j e c t s which warrant s u ch an a n a l y s i s du e o costi n c r e a s e s . While the Expo Phase and the 1 - 4 0 5 P r o j e c t are not Mea s ure R-fundedp r o j e c t s , we ecommend addressing them i n the same manner a s he Mea s ure Rp r o j e c t s f o r c o n s i s t e n c y .T he v a l u a t i o n of he above mentioned p r o j e c t s f o r compliance i t h the Mea s ure Rp o l i c y used the most u r r e n t l y a v a i l a b l e cost o complete s t i m a t e s . T he -5 SouthP r o j e c t ha s a remaining funding ga p f $202.8 i l l i o n ; the -405 r o j e c t ha s a undingga p of 75.0 i l l i o n (net unding gap as d e n t i f i e d i n I t e m #39 n May 013 o n s t r u c t i o nCommittee agenda); Expo Phase ha s a ga p f u p o $39.0 i l l i o n , i n c l u d i n g LACMTAcosts of 7.3 i l l i o n a nd Expo u t h o r i t y costs f up o $31.3 i l l i o n ; RegionalConnector ha s a unding ga p f $33 i l l i o n ; a nd Westside S u b w a y Extension Section 1ha s a unding ga p f $177.7 i l l i o n .To ddress the above i s t e d p r o j e c t funding gaps, we re recommending the o l l o w i n gf i n a n c i a l s t r a t e g i e s found i n Table 1 . T he recommended funding s t r a t e g y was one n amanner o n s i s t e n t w i t h the Mea s ure R os t Management Process a nd P o l i c y describedbelow.

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Table 1 Summary f Cost Management nd Process Policy Evaluation( $ ' s i n m i l l i o n s )

Prop CProject Prop.C 40%& Measu re Measu re New Local Net

25 o Lease R35 o R20 o Starts Fu nds ChangeRevenueExpo(Expo $31.7 $31.7A u t h o r i tExpo $7.30 $7.30(LACMTA)

~~39.00)Expo I $95.25 $0.00($56.25)-405 NB $56.25 $75.00HOV $~$ 5Westside ($95.25) ($95.25)E q u i t y-5 N o r t h(SR134 ($18.75) $18.75 $0.00SR170SFV q u i t y ($18.75) ($18.75)

$133.00-5 South $153.00$20.00Gateway ($133.00) ($153.00)E q u i t y ($20.00)WestsideS u bw a y Sec. $73.11 $9 9 .60 $5.00 $177.711Regional $32.00 $1.00 $33.00Connector

W i l s h i r e BRT ($115.30) ($115.30)

C e n t r a l $10.19 $10.19Reserve

NetChange $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $9 9.60 $6.00 $105.60



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Measure R ost Management olicv SummaryThe adopted i n a l Measure R n i f i e d Cost Management Process and P o l i c y s t i p u l a t e sthe o l l o w i n g :" I f increases n cost estimates o c c u r , the LACMTA oard o f D i r e c t o r s must approve ap l a n of c t i o n t o address the s s u e p r i o r t o t a k i n g any c t i o n necessary o p e r m i t thep r o j e c t t o move o the next m i l e s t o n e . Increases n cost estimates i l l be measuredagainstthe 2009 Long Range r a n s p o r t a t i o n Plan as d j u s t e d by subsequent c t i o n son cost estimates taken by the LACMTA oard of i r e c t o r s . S h o r t f a l l s w i l l f i r s t beaddressed a t the p r o j e c t l e v e l p r i o r t o e v a l u a t i o n f o r any d d i t i o n a l resources u s i n gthese methods n t h i s o r d e r :

1) Value engineering and/ o r scope r e d u c t i o n s ;2) New o c a l agency unding resources;3) Shorter segmentation;4) Other cost r e d u c t i o n s w i t h i n the same r a n s i t c o r r i d o r or highway o r r i d o r ;5) Other cost e d u c t i o n s w i t h i n the same ub- r e g i o n ; and i n a l l y ,6) Countywide r a n s i t cost e d u c t i o n s and/ o r o t h e r funds i l l be sought s i n g p r e -

e s t a b l i s h e d p r i o r i t i e s ."We o l l o w e d the i x steps p r e s c r i b e d by the p o l i c y t o address the funding gap anddeveloped the o l l o w i n g p l a n of c t i o n f o r each of the i v e p r o j e c t s :Value Engineering and/or Scope eductionsl-5 SouthGiven the i z e and scope o f the -5 o r r i d o r P r o j e c t , LACMTA nd C a l t r a n s agreed t osegment the p r o j e c t t o achieve more o m p e t i t i v e b i d s as e l l as ensure i m e l y p r o j e c tcompletion. During the design phase, LACMTA t a f f worked c l o s e l y w i t h C a l t r a n s t onarrow the scope as much as o s s i b l e w i t h o u t s a c r i f i c i n g the cost f f e c t i v e n e s s o f thep r o j e c t .LACMTA t a f f w i l l continue o work i t h C a l t r a n s t o i d e n t i f y any d d i t i o n a l valueengineering or scope r e d u c t i o n s f o r the remaining segments. At h i s t i m e , t h e r e are nocost estimates v a i l a b l e f o r p o t e n t i a l value engineering or scope r e d u c t i o n s . However,we re assuming h a t some ombination o f value e n g i n e e r i n g , excess i g h t- o f-wayvalue capture arrangements, and S t a t e / l o c a l funding c an be combined t o b r i n gapproximately$50 i l l i o n i n savings or revenues rom o t h e r s i n t o the p r o j e c t budget.LACMTA t a f f w i l l r e t u r n t o the LACMTA oard of i r e c t o r s by the end of the calendaryear i t h a more p e c i f i c recommendation. I f these assumptions m a t e r i a l i z e , we xpectthe h o r t f a l l t o be $152.8 m i l l i o n .



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-405 r o j e c tAs oted i n Item #39 n the May 013 o n s t r u c t i o n C o m mi t t e e age n da, LACMTA t a f fh as d e n t i f i e d approximately $14.9 i l l i o n i n value engineering r e c o m m e n da ti o ns h a t i fim p l e m e n t e d, would narrow the funding gap f r o m $135.3 i l l i o n t o $120.4 i l l i o n . Thisr e f l e c t s o n- g o i n g e f f o r t s t o i d e n t i f y cost-e f f e c t i v e m e t h o d s o r p e r F o r m i n g c hange wo rkan d e f f i c i e n c i e s i n a d m i n i s t e r i n g the p r o j e c t .E x p o PhaseGiven t h a t Exp o Phase began u l l r e v e n u e o p e r a t i o n o n J u n e 20, 2012, h e r e are n ovalue engineering or sc op e r e d u c t i o n s a v a i l a b l e . T h e E x p o s i t i o n C o n s t r u c t i o n A u t h o r i t yi s r e s p o n s i b l e f o r keeping post-o p e r a t i o n c o n s t r u c t i o n costs t o a m i n i m u m . T h eE x p o s i t i o n C o n s t r u c t i o n A u t h o r i t y has r e c e n t l y completed a r i s k a n a l y s i s an d b e l i e v e sa l l costs through p r o j e c t close- o u t can n o w be accomplished w i t h i n a 3% ontingencyl e v e l . We r e r e c o m m e n d i n g t h a t the LACMTA oard i d e n t i f y the f u n ds o r t h i s n e e d a tt h i s t i m e , bu t r e q u i r e the A u t h o r i t y t o r e t u r n w i t h L i f e- o f -P r o j e c t budget c hange i t h f u l ls u p p o r t i n g d e t a i l a t a a t e r time t h i s s u m m e r . I n a d d i t i o n t o the E x p o s i t i o n C o n s t r u c t i o nA u t h o r i t y c o s t s , the LACMTA as t a r t- u p , o v e r s i g h t , an d bu s b r i d g e costs o f $7.3m i l l i o n t h a t are addressed i n the subregional t r a d e- o f f a n a l y s i s below.Regional ConnectorLACMTA t a f f w i l l continue t o i d e n t i f y an y d d i t i o n a l value engineering or sc op er e d u c t i o n s f o r the p r o j e c t . At h i s t i m e , t h e r e ar e n o cost estimates v a i l a b l e f o rp o t e n t i a l value e n g i n e e r i n g or sc o p e r e d u c t i o n s t h a t are not already p a r t o f the p r o j e c tscope.Westside Subway xtension Section 1LACMTA t a f f w i l l continue t o i d e n t i f y an y d d i t i o n a l value e n g i n e e r i n g or sc op er e d u c t i o n s f o r the p r o j e c t . At h i s t i m e , t h e r e are n o cost estimates v a i l a b l e f o rp o t e n t i a l value e n g i n e e r i n g or sc o p e r e d u c t i o n s t h a t are not already p a r t o f the p r o j e c tscope proposed.New ocal A g e n c v Fundinct R e s o u r c e s1-5 S o u t hI n D e c e m b e r 2012, he LACMTA oard of D i r e c t o r s ap p r o v e d the reprogramming o f$72 i l l i o n i n f e d e r a l an d s t a t e f u n d s o t h i s p r o j e c t t o c o m p e n s a t e o r the removal o f$72 i l l i o n i n P r o p o s i t i o n 1 B o r r i d o r M o b i l i t y I m p r o v e m e n t A cc o u n t CMIA) u n ds d u et o a CTC o l i c y o n r e t a i n i n g such b i d savings o r o t h e r purposes. T h e h o r t f a l l of$152.8 m i l l i o n a l r e a d y accounts o r t h i s p r i o r a c t i o n . Other than these funds, h e r e aren o n e w o c a l agenc y unding resources v a i l a b l e t o t h i s p r o j e ct . T h e r e may be some



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r i g h t- o f-way cost e d u c t i o n s t h a t c an be made o s s i b l e by the C i t y of La Mirada. Theser e d u c t i o n s ar e p a r t of a $50 i l l i o n package o f s u c h measures assumed i n the "OtherCost Reductions i t h i n the Same ubregion" e c t i o n below.1-405 r o j e c tA c t i n g f o r the S t a t e o f C a l i f o r n i a o n December 6, 2012, he CTC l l o c a t e d $26.1 m i l l i o no f t h e i r CMIA bond funds f r o m the -5 N o r t h Empire Avenue/Burbank Boulevard P r o j e c tt o the I n t e r s t a t e 405 epulveda Pass Improvements P r o j e c t . These unds were madea v a i l a b l e d ue o very a v o r a b l e b i d s r e c e i v e d f o r the -5 N o r t h p r o j e c t . Th e t a t e ' s CMIAfunds i l l be used f o r the c o n s t r u c t i o n o f enhancements and s t a n d a r d i z a t i o n s r e l a t e d t othe -405 p r o j e c t .There s $13.0 i l l i o n a v a i l a b l e i n p r o j e c t contingency and the C i t y of Lo s Angeles hasagreed t o c o n t r i b u t e approximately $2.6 i l l i o n t o the -405 p r o j e c t and t s r e l a t e dm i t i g a t i o n s . O n c e the p r o j e c t contingency and the a d d i t i o n a l C i t y of LA revenues ar ei n c l u d e d , t h e r e remains a $78.7 i l l i o n funding gap. We re a l s o e x p e c t i n g f u r t h e r costand revenue r e c o v e r i e s t h a t are not y e t f i n a l f o r approximately $3.7 i l l i o n .As e s u l t of the State and Local agency c t i o n s above, he remaining fundi ng i sb e l i e v e d t o be $75.0 i l l i o n , as s h o w n i n the a b l e below:Funding Gap f t e r Value Engineering $120.4 M

CMIA Reprogramming ($26.1 M)A v a i l a b l e Contingency ($13.0 M)C i t y of LA ost Recovery o r R e v e r s i b l e Lane P r o j e c t f$2.6 M)

Net Funding Gap $7 8 .7 MF u r t h e r Cost/Revenue Recovery f r om Other s ($3.7 M)Remaining Net Funding Gap $75.0 M

E xp o P ha seAt h i s t i m e , h e r e ar e no new l o c a l agency funding resources a v a i l a b l e t o t h i s p r o je c t .Regional ConnectorPe r No te G n the Measu re R xpenditure Plan, o c a l agencies ar e expected t oc o n t r i b u t e an amount equal o t h r e e percent f t o t a l p r o j e c t costs o r t r a n s i t p r o j e c t s .Given the increase n the cost assumptions o r the Regional Connector, we reassuming h a t the l o c a l agency o n t r i b u t i o n w i l l increase by $ 1 m i l l i o n . This leaves aremaining funding gap of $32 i l l i o n .



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Westside Subway xtension Section 1Per Note G n the Measure R xpenditure Pian, o c a l agencies are expected t oc o n t r i b u t e an amount equal t o t h r e e percent of o t a l costs o r t r a n s i t p r o j e c t s . Given theincrease i n the cost assumptions o r the Westside Subway Extension S e c t i o n 1 , we reassuming t h a t the l o c a l agen cy c o n t r i b u t i o n w i l l increase by $4.55 m i l l i o n .Our New t a r t s funding assumption f o r the Westside Subway h as not increased sincewe e p o r t e d our a t e s t request o the FTA n December 2012, u t t h as increased by$96.6 m i l l i o n r e l a t i v e t o our l a s t r e p o r t the LACMTA Board of D i r e c t o r s i n A p r i l 2012. I fthe C i t y of Lo s Angeles an d New t a r t s funds are u l t i m a t e l y secured, h i s leaves aremaining funding gap o f $73.11 m i l l i o n f o r t h i s p r o j e c t .Shorter Se gmen tati o n1-5 SouthTh e -5 c o r r i d o r p r o j e c t s are d i v i d e d i n t o 10 segments f o u r o n the -5 N o r t h p o r t i o n an ds i x i n the -5 South, n c l u d i n g the -5/Carmenita I n t e r c h a n g e ) . Th e -5 South p o r t i o n ofthe c o r r i d o r , where the cos t increase i s n o w a n t i c i p a t e d , was esigned as a mixed- f l o wan d High Occupancy Vehicle Lane gap c l o s u r e t h a t addresses congestion c r e a t e d by ab o t t l e n e c k a t the Orange County L i n e . D e f e r r i n g an y segments i l l r e s u l t i n continuedb o t t l e n e c k c o n d i t i o n s along the -5 South, e l a y i n g congestion r e l i e f i n t h i s c r i t i c a lc o r r i d o r . We o not re c o mme n d s h o r t e r segmentation f o r t h i s c o r r i d o r .-405 r o j e c tSince t h i s p r o j e c t closes a g ap i n the carpool lane network, h o r t e r segmentation wouldnegate the value of the p r o j e c t an d p o t e n t i a l l y i n t r o d u c e s a f e t y impacts. A h o r t e rs e gme n t s not e a s i b l e an d the funding g ap i s s t i l l $ 7 5 i l l i o n .E x p o P haseGiven t h a t E x p o P h as e began u l l revenue o p e r a t i o n o n June 20, 2012, h o r t e rsegmentation would r e q u i r e t h a t E x p o P h as e I be shortened, not E x p o Phase . Web e l i e v e adequate sub- r e g i o n a l t r a d e - o f f s e x i s t t h a t ma ke t unnecessary t o shorten E x p oP h as e I i n f a v o r of cost increases o r E x p o P h as e . Those r a d e - o f f s are described i nthe sub- r e g i o n a l s e c t i o n below.Regional Co nnectorSince the p r i m a r y goal of h i s p r o j e c t i s t o close a gap i n the l i g h t r a i l network, an ys h o r t e r segmentation would s u b s t a n t i a l l y reduce the b e n e f i t s o f t h i s p r o j e c t . We o notr e c ommen d t h i s o p t i o n .

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Westside Subway xtension Section 1While s h o r t e r segmentation i s p o s s i b l e f o r the Westside Subway E x t e n s i o n , wer e c o m m e n d a g a i n s t t h i s step o r s e v e r a l reasons. S e c t i o n 1 was xtended t oW i l s h i r e/La Cienega due t o engineering c o n s t r a i n t s a t the n i t i a l S e c t i o n 1 terminus a tW i l s h i r e/ F a i r f a x . Shortening Section 1 would l i k e l y r e s u l t i n f u r t h e r cost increases t o thep r o j e c t a n d r e q u i r e d e f e r r a l of o t h e r p r o j e c t s . Th e o n l y Section which c o u l d beshortened i s S e c t i o n 3 . This would r e q u i r e e l i m i n a t i n g the Veteran A f f a i r s S t a t i o n a n dmoving the t erminus t o W e s tw o o d . I n a d d i t i o n t o h i g h e r r e a l e s t a t e p r i c e s i n W e s tw o o d,e l i m i n a t i n g the Veteran A f f a i r s s t a t i o n would r e q u i r e LACMTA o prepare asupplement al Environmental Impact Statement/Environmental Impact Report E IS/EIR)d ue o s i g n i f i c a n t p r o j e c t ch a ng es. As r e s u l t , t h e r e may be s i g n i f i c a n t p r o j e c t delaysa n d increased costs t o the p r o j e c t .Other C o s t Reducti o n s within the Same ighwav/Transit Corridor1-5 SouthI n De c e mber 2012, he LACMTA Board of D i r e c t o r s approved the t r a n s f e r o f a p o r t i o no f approximately $100 i l l i o n i n b i d savings from the -5 N o r t h a t Empire Avenue p r o j e c tt o the -5 South i n the a m oun t of $71 m i l l i o n . Th e remainder o f the b i d savings wast r a n s f e r r e d t o the -405 p r o j e c t . This a c t i o n r e s u l t e d i n the net funding g a p of $202.8m i l l i o n o n the -5 South mentioned e a r l i e r i n t h i s r e p o r t .1-405 r o j e c tWe onsidered c l o s i n g the funding g a p w i t h funds from the Measure R epulveda PassT r a n s i t C o r r i d o r P r o j e c t . However, unding f o r t h i s p r o j e c t i s not scheduled t o bea v a i l a b l e u n t i l 2031 a n d ca n n ot be t r a n s f e r r e d from a r a n s i t us e t o a highway us e u n t i la f t e r the year 2019 per the Measure R rdinance. We l s o analyzed d e f e r r a l o f S e c t i o n3 f the Westside Subway Extension. S t a f f d o e s not r e c o m m e n d d e f e r r a l o f t h i s p r o j e c tbecause such funding c a n n o t be t r a n s f e r r e d from a t r a n s i t t o highway us e n t i l a f t e r theyear 2019. We o v e o n t o the next step o f the p o l i c y w i t h the same u n d i n g g a p o f $75m i l l i o n .E x p o P h a seLACMTA t a f f analyzed the two p r o j e c t s w i t h i n the same r a n s i t c o r r i d o r : the E x p oP h a s e I Bike L a n e a n d the E x p o s i t i o n L i g h t R a i l L i n e Phas e I ( E x p o Phase I ) . At thetime of h i s a n a l y s i s , there are n o cost r e d u c t i o n s from the E x p o P h a s e I Bike L a n ea v a i l a b l e . However, LACMTA t a f f r e c o m m e n d s r a n s f e r r i n g $39 i l l i o n i n P r o p o s i t i o nC25% ro m E x p o Ph a s e I t o E x p o Ph a s e . This t r a n s f e r closes the funding g a p o r theE x p o P h a se . We l s o r e c o m m e n d r e s t o r i n g the $39 i l l i o n t o E x p o Phase I from sub-r e g i o n a l funds, a s discussed i n the next t e p .

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Westside Subway ection 1The Westside Subway o r r i d o r i n c l u d e s the W i l s h i r e BRT r o j e c t . This p r o j e c t wasb i f u r c a t e d i n t o two p a r t s , o n e i s a l i m i t e d peak hour o n l y v e r s i o n of BRT h a t i s a l r e a d yfunded w i t h f e d e r a l g r a n t s an d i s underway an d the o t h e r wasa more r o b u s t BRT i t hdedicated lanes an d r i d e improvements. This s e c o n d W i l s h i r e BRT r o j e c t has ap l a c e h o l d e r f i g u r e i n the LRTP f $115.3 m i l l i o n t h a t we are n o w proposing t o e l i m i n a t ei n favor of $73.11 m i l l i o n f o r the Westside Subway p r o j e c t , i n t h i s c o r r i d o r s t e p , an d $32m i l l i o n f o r the Regional Con nector p r o j e c t i n the subsequent u b r e g i o n a l s t e p . Theset r a n s f e r s i n v o l v e t r a n s f e r r i n g P r o p o s i t i o n C40% rom the s e c o n d W i l s h i r e BRT r o j e c tt o the Westside Subway an d Regional C o n n e c t o r p r o j e c t s . The P r o p o s i t i o n C40%would then be exchanged f o r lease revenues as P r o p o s i t i o n C s p r o h i b i t e d from b e i n gused f o r subway c o n s t r u c t i o n . This completes the n eed f o r funding the WestsideSubway cost in crease an d leaves a remnant $10.19 m i l l i o n from the W i l s h i r e BRT s aC e n t r a l Area r e s e r v e .

Other C o s t R educ ti o n s within the Same ubregionS t a f f r e c o m m e n d s the o l l o w i n g a c t i o n s by the LACMTA Board o f D i r e c t o r s :-5 SouthS o u r c e AmountCarmenita I n t e r c h a n e Phase Subre T o n a l E q u i t R e p a me nt $133.00 m i l l i o nGatewa C i t i e s E u i t Funds est Santa Ana Branch $0.00 m i l l i o nExcess Right- o f-Way ales/ J o i n t Developmentf i n a l amount TBD$4.90 m i l l i o n

State c o n t r i b u t i o n s f i n a l amount TBD $4.90 m i l l i o nTotal C o s t R educ ti o n s f r o m Subre io n $202.80 m i l l i o nFo r h i s s t e p , LACMTA t a f f assumes the sale o f excess R i g h t- o f-Way/ J o i n tDevelopment p p o r t u n i t i e s an d c o n t r i b u t i o n s from C a l t r a n s w i l l e q u a l l y share i n theremaining g ap a f t e r the l o c a l resources are used . At h i s t i m e , LACMTA t a f f i s a w a i t i n gm o r e d e t a i l s b e f o r e a complete a n a l y s i s c an be do n e. I n a d d i t i o n , the Measure ROrdinance r e q u i r e s t h a t an y remaining Measure R unds from the -5 South bet r a n s f e r r e d t o the W e s t Santa A n a Branch. As a e s u l t of h i s s t e p , t h e r e w i l l be $ 2 0m i l l i o n l e s s than was n t i c i p a t e d i n the 20 0 9 L o n g R a n g e T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Plan F i n a n c i a lModel o r the W e s t Santa An a Branch.1-405 r o j e c tThe mileage between the -405 p r o j e c t l i m i t s at -10 an d U.S. 101 i s s p l i t 75 ercent($56.25 m i l l i o n ) w i t h i n the Westside Subregion an d 25 ercent $18.75 m i l l i o n ) w i t h i nthe S an Fernando V a l l e y Subregion. To lose the $ 7 5 m i l l i o n funding gap, wer e c o m m e n d the o l l o w i n g funding t r a n s f e r s summarized below:

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Source AmountTransfer Pro o s i t i o n C 5% rom Ex o h a s e I $56.25 m i l l i o nTransfer Pro o s i t i o n C25% rom I-5 N o r t h SR-134 o SR-170 $18.75 m i l l i o nTotal Cost Reductions from Subre ions $75.00 m i l l i o n-5 North(SR134 o SR170)As e s u l t of r a n s f e r r i n g P r o p o s i t i o n C25% o the -405 P r o j e c t , t h e r e i s a n $18.75m i l l i o n funding g ap. S t a f f recommends the f o l l o w i n g a c t i o n :Source AmountTransfer Measure R 20% rom Sa n Fernando V a l l e y SubregionalE i t Funds $18.75

m i l l i o nTotal Cost Reductions from Subre ion $18.75 m i l l i o nExpo Phas e 1As r e s u l t of r a n s f e r r i n g P r o p o s i t i o n C 5% o the Expo Phas e a n d t o the -405p r o j e c t , t h e r e i s a $95.25 m i l l i o n funding g ap. S t a f F recommends the f o l l o w i n g a c t i o n :Source AmountTransfer Measure R 5%from estside Subre T o n a l E i t Funds $95.25 m i l l i o nTotal Cost Reductions from Subre ion $95.25 m i l l i o nRegional ConnectorLACMTA t a f f i d e n t i f i e d approximately $2,509.30 m i l l i o n i n C e n t r a l Subregion T r a n s i tP r o j e c t s a s w e l l a s n e a r l y $55.89 m i l l i o n i n C e n t r a l Subregion C a l l f o r P r o j e c t s(CFP)funds. T he C e n t r a l Subregion T r a n s i t P r o j e c t s i n c l u d e the Eastside AccessEnhancements $30.00 m i l l i o n ) , Westside Subway Extension S e c t i o n I ($2,334.00m i l l i o n ) , a n d the W i l s h i r e LACMTA apid Transitway ($115.30 m i l l i o n ) .T he Eastside Access Enha ncement s s i n the F i n a l Design Pha se or c o n s t r u c t i o n f o r thep o r t i o n o f the p r o j e c t w i t h i n the C i t y of Los Angeles a n d i s i n Conceptual Design Pha sef o r the p o r t i o n i n u n i n c o r p o r a t e d East Los Angeles. While these funds are a v a i l a b l e ,LACMTA t a f f f e e l s d e f e r r a l of h i s p r o j e c t would delay r i t i c a l p e d e s t r i a n a n d customers a f e t y improvements i n the areas surrounding the LACMTA ol d L i n e . We o notrecommend d e f e r r a l of h i s p r o j e c t .T he next p r o j e c t LACMTA t a f f considered i s the Westside Subway Extension S e c t i o n1 . I n A p r i l 2012, the LACMTA oard of D i r e c t o r s approved the F i n a l EnvironmentalImpact S t a t e m e n t / F i n a l Environmental Impa ct Report FEIS/FEIR) o r t h i s p r o j e c t . Asp a r t of h i s a c t i o n , the LACMTA oard of D i r e c t o r s a l s o adopted the Cost M a n a g e m e n tAnalysis which i n c l u d e d extending S e c t i o n I t o W i l s h i r e/La Cienega. As r e s u l t o f t h i sa c t i o n , t h e r e are n o p r o j e c t savings a v a i l a b l e a t t h i s t i m e .

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The LACMTA oard o f D i r e c t o r s c o u l d e l i m i n a t e an e q u i v a l e n t amount n C e n t r a l Sub-r e g i o n C a l l f o r P r o j e c t s commitments l r e a d y i n the program. There s approximately$55.9 i l l i o n a v a i l a b l e i n v a r i o u s funding sources o r the Regional Connector r o j e c tfrom the x i s t i n g C a l l f o r P r o j e c t commitments. The LACMTA oard o f D i r e c t o r s c o u l dask us o recommend which p r o j e c t s t o cancel or r e a t e a f i r s t-come, i r s t servedapproach n t i l the remaining funds are exhausted.I n s t e a d , s t a f f recommends r a n s f e r r i n g $32 i l l i o n of r o p o s i t i o n C25% rom theW i l s h i r e BRT r o j e c t t o the Regional Connector. These would then be exchanged o rlease revenues as r o p o s i t i o n C s p r o h i b i t e d from being used o r subway o n s t r u c t i o n .This step cl oses the unding gap.Source AmountI n d i r e c t ) T r a n s f e r of Pro o s i t i o n C 0%from i l s h i r e BRT Leases $32.00 i l l i o nTotal Cost Reductions r om Subre io n $32.00 m i l l i o nWestside Subway xtension Section 1The Measure R rdinance ha s l l o c a t e d $4.074 i l l i o n i n Measure R unds o the u l lWestside Subwa y E x t e n s i o n . Our u r r e n t f i n a n c i a l p l a n shows h a t approximately$3.199 i l l i o n i n Measure R unds are o be used f o r a l l t h r e e s e c t i o n s of the x t e n s i o n .This means h e r e i s a p o t e n t i a l $875 i l l i o n a v a i l a b l e i n Subregional E q u i t y f o r b o t h theWestside and C e n t r a l Area subregions. However, he Measure R rdinance l s or e q u i r e s any unused Measure R unds o be deposited i n the Subregional E q u i t y fundo n l y a t the end of the p r o j e c t a f t e r t i s completed, and then o n l y i f t h e r e i s anyremaining Measure R unds. U t i l i z i n g t h i s o p t i o n would o n l y a l l o w the funds o be usedf o r the Westside Subway. Once h a t p r o j e c t , s completed, any excess would bedeposited i n t o the subregional o r e c a s t .Countywide Transit C ost Reductions a nd/ o r Other FundsEach of the a l t e r n a t i v e s i s c o n s t r u c t e d such as not o r e q u i r e any countywide costr e d u c t i o n s or o t h e r funds.

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2009LRTPTransitorridors

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LRTP forecast report