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Rob Moser • Pat McDon

Terrorism and Counteterrorism I

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SCHEDULE

1. TMFPQ

2. What was 9/11 (revisited)? How did it

us?

. What is terroris!?

". #i$e!!as o% &ghting a war on terroris'. How do we get %ro! 9/11 to wars in ra

*%ghanistan?

+. *re terrorist grou,s strategic?

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TMFPQ Continuin! debate oEbola and a tra"el ban

• Fo- ews c$i, on trave$ an and 0o$a•

*rgu!ents against a trave$ an –  The threat is sti$$ $ow and a trave$ an wi$$ not !ae us !uch sa%er – Wi$$ create incentives to go underground and thus !ae it harder t

,ersons – Wi$$ har! vo$unteer organi3ations4 access to West *%rican countries – Wi$$ scare aware vo$unteers who !a5 not e a$e to return to 67 – Wi$$ har! a$read5 %ragi$e West *%rican econo!ies – 8ou$d $ead to !an5 !ore countries %o$$owing *!erica4s $ead and a – 8ou$d %eed the %ear o% *!ericans and !ae us %ee$ $ess sa%e –

*$read5 !an5 air$ines have te!,orari$5 ha$ted ights to the area – :otto! $ine Wou$d !ae 0o$a outrea in *%rica even worse and tdangerous

• *rgu!ents %or a trave$ an – Wou$d add a $a5er o% ,rotection against s,read to 67 –  The *!erican ,u$ic wants it and wou$d %ee$ sa%er (+;< su,,ort tra – 7o!e *%rican countries have instituted trave$ ans and have contro

outrea – :otto! $ine 0-tra dose o% caution that cou$d ,rotect 67

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TMFPQ #n Iranian nuclear d• #avid 0. 7anger= >a!a 7ees an ran #ea$ That 8ou$d *void

Times= 1A/19• *s discussed $ast Thursda5= 67 strong interests in ,reventing

,ro$i%eration• 67 institutes tough sanctions on ran in res,onse to nuc$ear w

,rogra! – #i!inished oi$ revenues= $ose access to assets he$d aroad

ca,ita$ !arets• Bong ter! negotiations and di,$o!atic so$ution to ,reventive

(,ushed 5 srae$ and hard$iners in 67)• Ce5 issues in negotiations access o% wea,ons ins,ectors= how

uraniu! ran can enrich %or energ5 ,ur,oses= s,eed/degree 5re$a-es sanctions regi!e• Pro$e! a!a wi$$ $ose a vote in 8ongress to sus,end sanc

concession to ran= now considering going around 8ongress• Wi$$ ran sign oD on a dea$ without 8ongress (how trust Presid

i!,$e!ent i% can e ,unished 5 8ongress?)?• !,$ications %or discussions %ro! c$ass antiE,ro$i%eration inte

e-ecutive and $egis$ative conict over %oreign ,o$ic5= srae$ Bo

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%&at 'as ()** and &o' didc&an!e us$

• ew ene!5 in terroris! and new !ission o% coterroris!

•  The do!estic &ght against terroris! rise o% thesecurit5 state and the deate over the a$anceetween $iert5 and securit5

•  Taing the &ght aroad Foreign wars and coun

terroris!

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%&at is terrorism$

I+ ,.ord %&at is terrorism$

#+ /on-state actors usin! "iolence

,+ Instillin! terror 0 usin! .orce tointimidate

C+ Met&ods 0 suicide missionsD+ Tar!ets 0 intentionall 1illin! ci"il

E+ Tin! Means and 2oals

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Dilemmas o. 3!&tin! a 'arterrorism$

I+ ,.ord De3nin! t&e t&reat

#+ Is t&e t&reat a tactic4 ideolo!4 orentit$

,+ T&e 5roblem 'it& a 'ar on terror

C+ %&at t&e U+S+ 'as reall an!r ab

()**D+ 6Interests 3rst4 !oals second4 me

t&ird7

“American anger does not stem from the fact that it wterrorism. Americans would be just as furious if the cabeen inicted by the Afghan air force instead of a shanational group…No, what matters is quite simple Ameattac!ed and Americans were !illed. "#yford, p. $%& 

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Ho' are terrorist !rou5s di8e.rom ot&er t&reats$

1. Terroris! and the diDerences in &gstates and nonEstate actors

Power diDerentia$

Goa$s

#eterrence

7trategies/tactics

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Ho' do 'e !et .rom ()** to'ar in #.!&anistan$

• Prett5 straight%orward= Pres. :ush and advisors %e$t at war

doing nothing not serious$5 discussed• Huge decision 5 :ush on night o% 9/11 no discri!inatio

terrorists and states that haror the! – 8o!!it!ent to roaden war against states and non st

• #ecision o% :ush= ice= C. Hughes and s,eechwriters (Genationa$ securit5 ,$a5ers $e%t out

 –

Quic$5 deter!ined to strie *$ Qaeda= given sanctuarsouthern *%ghanistan 5 Ta$ian in return %or sustantisu,,ort

•  Tre!endous ,ressure on !i$itar5 and 8* to e read5 *7*aout readown in order i% another attac e%ore striing – :ush addresses 8ongress 9/2A= addresses nation anno

co!!ence!ent o% air stries on 1A/;

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Im5ortant attributes o. initcam5ai!n in #.!&anistan

• 8ha$$enge diJcu$t terrain= ,$ace where e!,ires

die (e.g. 7oviet 6nion)• 67 a$$ies with orthern *$$iance= co$$ection o% gro

orthern *%ghanistan &ghting Ta$ian – nsert 8* and s,ecia$ %orces to coordinating coa$it

ho$d it together with %unding and wea,ons

•

*T invoes *rtic$e '= attac on one is attac o• 8onvergence o% great ,ower interests oth 8hiussia share antiEterror interests – $$ustrates convergence o% nationa$ interests o% a$$

terroris! as a threat to their viai$it5 as organi3at

H d . ()**

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Ho' do 'e !et .rom ()** to '#.!&anistan to 'ar in Ira9

•

:ush %aces ,ressure %ro! withinad!inistration to go to war againsright awa5 a%ter 9/11 – u!s&e$d raises ,ossii$it5 on 7e,te!

 –

Wo$%owit3= 9/1= >ending states who sterroris!@

 – rders u!s&e$d on 11/21 to egin uwar ,$an %or ra

H d t . ()** t

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Ho' do 'e !et .rom ()** to '#.!&anistan to 'ar in Ira9$

:"erdetermined;• Wea,ons o% !ass destruction

 – 7adda! Hussein seeing to aug!ent ca,ai$ities and wou$a$$ies in region

 – Might give to terrorists – Had used in the ,ast (deterrence wou$d not wor) – Wo$%owit3 sett$e on this ecause easier to se$$ do!estica$$

• ra ,art o% *-is o% 0vi$ and e5 ene!5 o% the 6n – Might haror terrorists

• Beverage ,oint to trans%or! and de!ocrati3e Mi – #e!ocratic ra wou$d ,ut ,ressure on autocratic countries

$iera$i3e – eeded o$d so$ution to $ong ter! (two generations) ,ro$e

• :etter to &ght the terrorists in a %oreign theater

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C&allen!es o. 3!&tin! 'ar in• nternationa$ resistance= cannot get second 6 r

 – *ctivates %unda!enta$ ,ro$e! o% ,o$itics s 67 restra

•

nsuJcient ,re,aration %or ,ostE7adda! ra= asecurit5 co$$a,ses• 8ivi$ war

 – #e!ocrac5 ,ro!otion un$eashes co!!it!ent ,ro$e!reassure !inorit5 7unni coa$ition= restrain !aKorit5 7hiaand ee, Curds in ra (so Ture5 doesn4t hinder)?

• ew sanctuar5/training ground %or terroris!• #iverts resources and attention %ro! *%ghanista• 7ecuring the ,eace reuires !uch $onger co!!

than antici,ated – #o!estic su,,ort erodes= which o,ens roader uestio

sustaining $arger g$oa$ war against terroris!?

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#re terrorist !rou5s strate!o L *ra!s Terrorist grou,s do not dis,$a5 charact

rationa$ costEene&t ana$5sis in their actions

 es L C5dd and Wa$ter Terrorist grou,s are rationa$ athat use vio$ence ecause it o%ten wors to achconcrete goa$s

 Terrorist strategies as cost$5 signa$s to inuence eh

*ttrition ut$asting an adversar5 through w

Provocation Goading the adversar5 into con

nti!idation verthrowing a govern!ent threign o% terror

7,oi$ing 7aotaging the ,eace

utidding 8o!,etition etween terrorist g