OPINIONLEAD
Published:April10,201501:05IST|Updated:April10,201508:14ISTApril10,2015
IrandealspellsgoodtidingsforIndiaJAYANTPRASAD
APIranianscelebrateaframeworkagreementonIran'snuclearprogrammebetweentheircountryandsixworldpowers,inastreetinTehranonApril3,2015.
JayantPrasad
Atatimewhensuccessful,negotiatedoutcomestoanyintractableinternationaldisputehavebecomeararity,theunderstandingreachedbetweenIranandtheE3+3(France,GermanyandtheUnitedKingdom+China,theRussianFederationandtheUnitedStates)isaremarkableachievement.Aresultofpoliticalresolveanddeftnegotiations,thenucleardealissettoendoverthreeandahalfdecadesofunremittinghostilitybetweenIranandtheU.S.
TheannouncedframeworkrestrainsIransnuclearprogrammeitdoesnoteliminateit.ItallowsIranaccesstonuclearenergyforexclusivelypeacefulpurposesandacomprehensivereleasefromallsanctions.ThespontaneousstreetcelebrationsacrossIraniancitiestestifieditspeoplessupportforanagreementthatwillreconnectIranwiththeworld.
Keyparameters
http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/http://www.thehindu.com/http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/
ThedetailsoftheagreementcurrentlybeingdraftedwillbespeltoutbytheendofJuneintheJointComprehensivePlanofAction(JCPOA).TheframeworkoutlinesthatlimitswillbeplacedonIransenrichmentcapacity,levelandstockpilesoverthenext10to15years.IranwillmaintainnootherenrichmentfacilityexcepttheoneatNatanz,whereitwilluseonlyits6,104firstgenerationcentrifuges(lessthanathirdoftheirexistingnumber).IransundergroundandfortifiedfacilityatFordow,whichtheU.S.initiallywantedtoscrapandseal,willbeconvertedintoanuclearphysicsandtechnologycentre.
Iranwasbuildinga40MWheavywaterreactorinArak,fuelledbynaturaluraniumandestimatedtoproduceninekilogrammesofweaponsgradeplutoniumannuallyshouldIranacquirereprocessingtechnologytoseparateplutoniumfromthespentfuel.TheredesignedArakplantwillensureitdoesnotproduceplutonium.Therewillbenoreprocessing,andthespentfuelwillbeexported.
ByprovidingtheInternationalAtomicEnergyAgency(IAEA)enhancedaccesstoitsnuclearfacilities,includingfulllifecyclecradletocoffinmonitoringofnuclearmaterialsandcomponents,Iranhasestablisheditsbonafidesaboutabjuringfromtheacquisitionofnuclearweaponsintheforeseeablefuture.Inreturn,Iranshallhaveaccesstointernationalcooperationforciviliannuclearenergy,includingthesupplyofpowerandresearchreactors.
IransgreatestimmediategainwillbethesimultaneousterminationofthesanctionsleviedbythesixIranspecificSecurityCouncilresolutionsassoonasitimplementsitscommitments.AlsoslatedtogoaretheadditionalsanctionsimposedbytheU.S.,theEuropeanUnionandsomeothers,whichhadcrippledIransinternationalmarketaccessandeconomyanddisrupteditsenergy,shipping,transportationandfinancialsectors.IftheCongressdoesnotrevokethesesanctions,U.S.PresidentBarackObamamightusehiswaiverauthoritytofreeIranoftheireffect.
Changingregionallandscape
Iranhasgainedstrategicspace,evendominance,initswesternperiphery,overthelastdozenyearsastheunintendedbeneficiaryoftheU.S.interventioninIraq.Withitsabundantnaturalandhumanresourcesfreedfromtheburdensofsanctions,Iranseconomywillbeunfetteredanditspotentialunlocked.Asaconsequence,Iranwillbecomemoreselfassuredinitsinteractionswiththeworld.
WithmutualenemyimagesslowlyfadingmanyintheU.S.hadregardedIranasthecoreoftheaxisofevilandtheclergyinIranhadbrandedtheU.S.asTheGreatSatanthereconfiguredU.S.IrantieswillinevitablyrestructurethesecurityarchitectureoftheGulfandtheWestAsianregion.TheU.S.willleanonIrantoseekitscooperationincontendingwithahostofchallengesinIranscontiguity,primarilythecombatagainstDaeshinIraqandSyria,thewarinYemen,andthestruggletoestablishpeaceandstabilisationofAfghanistan.
IransgeostrategiclocationmakesitanintrinsicpartofIndiassecurityandeconomicspace.AstrongerandmoregloballyintegratedIranwillbeanassetforIndia.IndiahadrightlydisregardedtheStatementofPolicyattachedtothe2006HydeActenjoiningIndiatosanctionandcontainIranforitseffortstoacquirenuclearweapons.DespitecriticsofIndiawithintheU.S.establishmentusingthisasalitmustestforIndiaU.S.relations,IndiarejectedsanctionsnotmandatedbytheSecurityCouncil.
ImplicationsforIndia
IransharesitsborderswithAfghanistanandPakistan,whichcontainIslamistterroristgroupsthatactagainstbothIndiaandIran.TheseincludetheJundullah,theLashkareTaiba,andtheHaqqaninetwork,inturnassociatedwiththealQaeda,theTaliban,andeventhePakistanArmy.IndiaandIran,therefore,haveaconsonanceofinterestsinsupportingthestabilisationofAfghanistan.ThehistoryoftheirassociationgoesbacktothesupporttheytogetherextendedtoCommanderAhmadShahMassoudwhenhewascombatingtheTaliban.LikeIndia,IranisconstructivelyinvestedinAfghanistanandcanplayamuchmoresignificantrolethereasitgainsstrengthinthepostsanctionsperiod.
IndiaandIranarepoisedtoinkanintergovernmentalagreementontheChabaharport,whereIndiaisinvesting,inthefirstphase,amodestamountof$85milliontoequiptwoofitsexistingberthsforcontainerandmultipurposecargoshipmentsmeantforAfghanistan.IndiasfootprintinChabaharwillinitiallybelightanditsinvestmentcanbesteppedupasitscargopotentialincreases.
Fordecades,IndiahasbeenexploringconnectivityoptionsforAfghanistan,CentralAsia,andRussiabytheoverlandroutethroughIran.Duetolackofabetteravailableoption,IndianexportershavebegunusingthededicatedChinesefacilityforexportstoCentralAsiaattheLianyungangportthisisconnectedbywhatChinacallsitsuninterruptedraillinktoAlmaty,alongthealignmentoftheNewEurasianLandBridge,partofitsOneBeltOneRoadinitiative.IransBandarAbbasport,conceivedasthehubfortheInternationalNorthSouthTransportCorridor(INSTC),remains,nevertheless,theshortestandmosteconomicalroutefromIndiatoCentralAsia,RussiaandEurope.
India,IranandRussiaoriginallysignedtheINSTCConventioninDecember2000,andninemorecountrieshavesincejoinedit.DryrunsconductedlastJulyfromtheNhavaShevaportinMaharashtraontwotraderoutes,onetoAstrakhaninRussia,viaBandarAbbasandAmirabad,andanothertoBakuinAzerbaijan,viaBandarAbbasandAstara,showthatthesecanreduceshipmentcostsby$2,500per15tonsofcargo.IndiamustseizetheopportunitytooperationalisetheINSTCbyworkingwithIranandotherinterestedstakeholders.
Energysecurity
Asthecountryholdingtheworldsfourthlargestoilandthesecondlargestnaturalgasreserves,IrancomplementsIndia,currentlytheworldsfourthlargestconsumerandnetimporterofpetroleumproducts.IranslippedfromthesecondtotheseventhlargestsourceofcrudeoilimportstoIndiabetween200809(21.81millionmetrictons)and201213(13.14millionmetrictons).Withindigenousproductionflatatlessthanamillionbarrelsperday(bbl/d),Indiasoildemandisexpectedtomorethandoublefromitspresentlevelsto8.2bbl/dby2040.McKinseypredictsthatby2030,Indiawillhaveaprimaryenergyimportdependenceof51percent,comparedtooneand20percentfortheU.S.andChina.
AsIndiasmostproximateoilexportingcountry,IransroleinIndiasenergysecurityremainsimportant.Theoversupplyandlowerpricesof
oilandgasmakeIndiaequallyvaluabletoIranasanassured,longtermbuyer.Indiacouldtakeafreshlookattheprospectsofagaspipelineorliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)importsfromIran,asalsoinvestingindownstreamprojectsforpetrochemicalsandgasbasedureaplantsinIran.IndianfirmsneedtobemorenimblefootedtodealwithWesterncompetitorsrushingtoIran,asalsowithIranianpartnersadeptatdrivingahardbargain.
IndiaIrandefencecooperationcouldbegivengreatercontentthroughaJointWorkingGroupondefence.Thiswasneversetup,thoughenvisionedunderaforwardlookingIndiaIrandefencememorandumofunderstanding(MoU)concludedin2001.Besidesongoingtrainingandportcalls,Indiacouldextenditssupportforhydrographyandmoreintensenavalinteractions.TheestablishedtraditionofexchangesbetweentheNationalSecurityCouncilsandAdvisorsofthetwosidescouldproveusefulinthiscontext.
AcongruenceofregionalinterestsdoesnotbyitselftranslateintoupgradedstrategicrelationsbetweenIndiaandIran.ItwillrequirepatienceandpersistencetraitspossessedbyIraniannegotiatorsinamplemeasure.
Curiously,thekeychallengetoIndiawillbesimilartothatwhichconfrontstheU.S.andotherglobalandregionalpowershowtonurturearelationshipwitharesurgentIran,withoutadverselyaffectingtieswiththeArabGulfcountriesledbySaudiArabia,andIsrael.Thetrick,saysaseniorIndianofficial,istobalanceonathreeleggedstoolwithdifferentsizedlegs.
IndiahasimportantequitiesinArabGulfcountries.Collectively,theyarehometoalmostsevenmillionIndians,thelargestsourceofIndiasimports,includingenergysupplies,itssecondlargestexportdestination,andagrowingsourceofremittancesandinvestments.IndiawillhavetodemonstrateitsdiplomaticdexterityinmanagingthisdifficultbalancingactasitrebuildsitsrelationswithIran.
(JayantPrasad,aformerdiplomat,iscurrentlyaVisitingFellowattheResearchandInformationSystemforDevelopingCountries,NewDelhi,NonResidentFellowattheCenterfortheAdvancedStudyofIndia,UniversityofPennsylvania,andAdvisorattheDelhiPolicyGroup.)
Printableversion|Apr10,201512:01:02PM|http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/leadarticleirandealspellsgoodtidingsforindia/article7085906.ece
TheHindu
