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M for Mobile is proud to bring you the updatedand latest stats and facts you need to know for 2012and beyond, for the mobile, location and navigationindustry, in association with the launch of theLocation Business Summit USA.
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Mobile Fact PackThe Hottest Predictions for 2012
M for Mobile is proud to bring you the updated and latest stats and facts you need to know for 2012 and beyond, for the mobile, location and navigation industry, in association with the launch of the Location Business Summit USA.
4th ANNUALLocation Business Summit USAConference & Exhibition
Designed specifi cally to help you pinpoint key LBS business models and highlight services that can generate signifi cant revenue. The 4th annual Location business Summit USA is the biggest meeting place for hands on knowledge and networking for the mobile and location industry.
October 16-17, San Jose, 2012
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Source: Mobile fi nds its USP in contextual relevance – Paul Berney, CMO & Managing Director EMAE, MMA
Mobile has both caused and enabled an irrevocable change in consumer behaviour
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Source: Mobile fi nds its USP in contextual relevance – Paul Berney, CMO & Managing Director EMAE, MMA
Every interaction via mobile raises our expectations
Digital Natives/Generation Y/Millennials/Connected Consumers have higher expectations
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Source: June 6 2011, ‘Competitive Strategy In The Age Of The Customer” Forrester report
The age of the customer!
1900-1960
1960-1990
1990-2010
2010-?Sources of dominance
Age of manufacturingMass manufacturing makes industrial powerhouses successful
Ford, RCA, GE, Boeing, P&G, Sony
Walmart, Toyota, UPS, CSX
Amazon.com, Google, Intuit, MBNA
Contenders include Facebook, IBM, Best Buy and Apple
Age of distributionGlobal connections and transportation systems make distribution key
Age of informationConnected PCs and supply chains mean those who control information fl ow dominate
Age of the consumerEmpowered buyers demand a new level of customer obsession
Successful companies
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Source: Mobile fi nds its USP in contextual relevance – Paul Berney, CMO & Managing Director EMAE, MMA
Contextual Relevance is the USP of mobile when dealing with the digital generation
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Source: Mobile fi nds its USP in contextual relevance – Paul Berney, CMO & Managing Director EMAE, MMA
Mobile is changing our behaviour at every stage of the customer lifecycle
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Source: Strange PR
Consumers don’t need (want) marketing
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Source: NielsenSource: June 6 2011, ‘Competitive Strategy In The Age Of The Customer” Forrester report
Preferred source of product & service information
Consumer ratings
Consumer reviews
Company’s website
Call centre
Video clip
Live chat
Company’s Facebook
Mobile App
Online advertisement
Company’s Twitter
30% 50% 70% 90%20%10% 40% 60%
Social media sources
80% 100%0%
63%
50%
45%
30%
7%
9%
62%
47%
34%
15%
8%
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Source: Jiwire
31% researched a purchase on their device before buying in-store
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Source: European Technographics® Retail, customer experience and Travel online survey, Q3 2010
Shopping... Which one of the following have you ever used your mobile phone for?
To check store opening hours
To locate a nearby store to purchase a specifi c product
To compare physical store prices with online prices, when shopping in a store
To check in-store availability of a product
To read customer reviews of a product
To check on the status of an order
To look up online product information while shopping in a store
Base 13,869 European online adults who own mobile phones and 986 European frequent online buyers who own mobile phones (multiple responses accepted).
30%20%10%
Social media sources
Online Europeans
0%
22%8%
19%7%
15%4%
14%4%
13%3%
12%6%
12%4%
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Source: Mobile fi nds its USP in contextual relevance – Paul Berney, CMO & Managing Director EMAE, MMA
Mobile amplifi es the power of customer review sites
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Source: Mobile fi nds its USP in contextual relevance – Paul Berney, CMO & Managing Director EMAE, MMA
34% of US smartphone owners said they had abandoned a purchase in-store after seeing a negative review on their mobile
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Source: Mobile fi nds its USP in contextual relevance – Paul Berney, CMO & Managing Director EMAE, MMA
Mobile connects fans in multiple locations
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Source: Mobile fi nds its USP in contextual relevance – Paul Berney, CMO & Managing Director EMAE, MMA
Mobile changes the way we interact with our environment...
...and infl uences our decisions based on that location
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Customer journeys are not linear...
Loyalty loop
Active evaluationInformation gathering, shopping
Postpurchase experience
Ongoing exposure
Moment of purchase
Initial consideration
set
Trigger
Source: Mobile fi nds its USP in contextual relevance – Paul Berney, CMO & Managing Director EMAE, MMA
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Source: Mobile fi nds its USP in contextual relevance – Paul Berney, CMO & Managing Director EMAE, MMA
The mobile consumer expects: Convenience Multi-channel Real time Dialogue Engagement Control
Source: Mobile fi nds its USP in contextual relevance – Paul Berney, CMO & Managing Director EMAE, MMA
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Consumers are
mobile Your brand must follow them
Source: Mobile fi nds its USP in contextual relevance – Paul Berney, CMO & Managing Director EMAE, MMA
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Location, Location, Location – Vikas Arora, Solutions Specialist EMEA, Microsoft
70-80% of business data has a geographic content
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Location, Location, Location – Vikas Arora, Solutions Specialist EMEA, Microsoft
The understanding of location enables: More relevant search results
An opportunity for location-based advertisement and new business ideas
An additional dimension to search for and discover information
Deep insights in business data
A common operational picture...
...and maps are the canvas to visualise this knowledge
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Global Evolution of Location – Frederic Bruneteau, CEO, Ptolemus
The smartphone is changing the time scale of location
Gionass
Gyroscope
Compass
A-GPS
Celluar tower triangulation
(Google)
WiFi positioning
3-axis accelerometer
Compass
A-GPS
Celluar tower triangulation
(Google)
WiFi positioning
3-axis accelerometer
Gyroscope
Compass
A-GPS
Celluar tower triangulation
(Google)
WiFi positioning
3-axis accelerometer
A-GPS
Celluar tower triangulation
(Google)
WiFi positioning
3-axis accelerometer
Celluar tower triangulation
(Google)
WiFi positioning
3-axis accelerometer
iPhone 2G
iPhone 3G
iPhone 3GS
iPhone 4
iPhone 4S
June 2007 October 2011
A new positioning generation every 10 months
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Global Evolution of Location – Frederic Bruneteau, CEO, Ptolemus
2013 201520122011 2014 20162010
Mill
ions
1,200m
1,000m
800m
600m
400m
200m
0m
Global smartphone sales (millions)
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Global Evolution of Location – Frederic Bruneteau, CEO, Ptolemus
The smartphone is becoming our personal server to the geo-located world
The smartphone is becoming our personal server
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Global Evolution of Location – Frederic Bruneteau, CEO, Ptolemus
Location-enabled phones: Smartphones now exceed half of total phone sales in
Europe and North America
Location-enabled phone and smartphone are becoming synonyms
Number of location-enabled phones sold will again double within fi ve years thanks to a take-off in China and India
Single purpose devices such as pocket cameras and PNDs need to fi nd a new positioning
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Source: PTOLEMUS Insurance Telematics StudySource: Global Evolution of Location – Frederic Bruneteau, CEO, Ptolemus
The smartphone can threaten single-purpose devices such as Octo Telematics’ Clear Box for Pay As You Drive insurance
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Global Evolution of Location – Frederic Bruneteau, CEO, Ptolemus
LBA is the next wave
Although discussed for many years only now making an appearance
Hype turns to reality and €
The next big step after SMS
Today, location location use is still fairly primitive and limited revenues
Location has to be integrated intelligently with other targeting criteria (age, interests, gender, etc...)
Proximity marketing when user near POS works well, e.g. O2 UK Priority Moments off er service
...and will overcome the main challenges:
User privacy must be respected
Opt-in and permissions must be clear
Contact strategy (frequency of messages) needs to be well-judged, and varies per segments
Third-party interfaces to advertising agencies need building
Ultimately real-time auctioning platforms for mobile inventory will exist
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
The four chimneys are pushing all players to integrate vertically
Global Evolution of Location – Frederic Bruneteau, CEO, Ptolemus
Nokia SiemensNetwork infrastructure
Nokia/NavteqWPS
Windows PhoneAndroidIOS
BingGoogle Search
supl.nokia.comA-GPS supl.google.com
Symbian + Maemo + MoblinOS
Internet ExplorerChrome / WebkitSafari
Nokia/NavteqMap Bing MapsGoogle MapsPlaceBase
Nokia/NavteqAdvertising platform
Microsoft AdvertisingAdMobiAd (Quattro
Wireless)
Google Maps
NokiaDevice
Search engine
Apple
NovarraBrowser
MotorolaiPhone
Nokia/NavteqLocal content Microsoft Advertising
Panoramio/ Zagat
DVI StoreApp store Microsoft MarketPlace
Android MarketplaceApp Store
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Major players are all attempting to integrate the complete end-to-end location solution
Global Evolution of Location – Frederic Bruneteau, CEO, Ptolemus
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
But ecosystems are also a highly effi cient way of building a complete solution
Global Evolution of Location – Frederic Bruneteau, CEO, Ptolemus
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Global Evolution of Location – Frederic Bruneteau, CEO, Ptolemus
The OS sponsor focuses more on creating the right enablers and SDK
No need to develop all new services, third party developers do it
Number of services/applications increases dramatically
Competition becomes more diffi cult because it is more complex to fi ght an ecosystem
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Global Evolution of Location – Frederic Bruneteau, CEO, Ptolemus
Glonass
Reached full operational capacity (24 satellites) in December 2011
Faster TTFF
Dual-use most benefi cial in urban canyons
Somewhat superior service in Northern latitudes
Diff erent standards (FDMA vs. CDMA) has slowed adoption but now most chipset vendors support it
Other GNSS
Galileo will have launched fi rst four satellites by year end
Beidou achieves operational positioning capacity (only regional coverage)
GPS satellite positioning monopoly is ending, as new constellations emerge
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Market for indoor positioning
We spend 80% of our time indoors, IPS is the future:
• Shopping malls, airports and offi ces – to fi nd specifi c goods or people
• Airports and hospitals – security applications including theft, rescue and exit
• Trains and subways, for location-based content towards travellers
Indoor is where the business takes place: shopping, contracts signed, etc.
Indoor technologies & maps are emerging
Criteria for success: cheap, scalable and accurate
Dominant solution will be a combination of technologies, notably WiFi, Cell-ID, MEMS (gyroscopes, accelerometers)
Solution will be software-based (Pole Star, Insiteo) or chipset-based (CSR)
Maps are also coming from Micello, Navteq, Microsoft and Google
The mass market for indoor positioning is maturing, setting off a transformation of our lives in the near future
Global Evolution of Location – Frederic Bruneteau, CEO, Ptolemus
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Cell-ID has the potential to strike backThe performance of positioning technologies compared
Global Evolution of Location – Frederic Bruneteau, CEO, Ptolemus
Comparison factors
Perf
orm
ance
High
Low
100
75
50
25
0
Cell-ID GNSS WiFi IP address
Reliability EnergyPresenceLow cost
Ecosystem LatencyCoverage
Opt-inAutomaticAccuracy
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
All these companies will want to know your car’s locationConnected car services and players
Global Evolution of Location – Frederic Bruneteau, CEO, Ptolemus
Resource management
Car maintenance
Energy management
Multimodel navigation
LBA/LBM
PAYD/PHYD
Social networking
Car sharing
Finance
Traffi c & other services
Stolen vehicle
recovery
bCall
eCall
Voice & messaging
Road user charging
Resource management
Power suppliers
Mobile operators
Maintenance fi rms
Oil companiesBanks &
leasing fi rms
Navigation & search vendors
Insurers
Car OEMs
Assistance providers
Toiling operators
Handset vendors
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Number of connected vehicles in use in Europe (in millions)
Numerous factors are helping
The take-off of low cost embedded navigation systems such as Renault’s Varinat TomTom
The eCall project in the EU, which is scheduled to be mandated in all new type-approved cars and LCVs by end 2015
The ERA Glonass project in Russia, which will apply the same constraint to all motor vehicles in the Russian market by end 2013
The development of national road charging schemes
The take-off of PAYD insurance aftermarket systems
At last, geo-connectivity is reaching vehicles in large volumes
50
40
30
20
10
02010 20122011 2013 2014
Global Evolution of Location – Frederic Bruneteau, CEO, Ptolemus
Other (SVR, speed camera warning systems) Aftermarket systems/Fleet management Aftermarket systems/RJC Aftermarket systems/PAYD insurance Aftermarket systems/Connected PNDs eCalls Embedded navigation systems
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Google and Nokia have destroyed the business case for navigation-only services
• Google present in two biggest mobile OS platforms, IOS and Android• Google represents vast majority of local/map searches• PND sales are falling• Car last platform where paid navigation is dominant model
Navigation fl ies with local search (pull)
• Hence TomTom’s acquisition of iLocal• Challenging to design a large scale freemium model where both free premium
levels work
Next step will be LBA (push)
• Knowing where your are where you are going to suggest where to purchase• Google best placed... Unless Apple develops own navigation
Navigation and local search are becoming one and the same business
Global Evolution of Location – Frederic Bruneteau, CEO, Ptolemus
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
The 2010 Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) Directive creates the framework for a European-wide implementation of eCall
The European Commission aims at mandating eCall for all new type-approved vehicles by end 2015
Certan OEMs have already deployed eCall on most models, notably PSA, Volvo and BMW
Daimler just announced that it will deploy it on almost all models from June
We expect the eCall box to be used as the gateway to connected car services (connected navigation, insurance, stolen vehicle recovery, remote diagnostics, etc.)
We expect the eCall OBU to be used as a multi-service box for the connected car
Global Evolution of Location – Frederic Bruneteau, CEO, Ptolemus
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
PAYD trials & launches globally PAYD has reached its tipping point
Since 1997 (Progressive’ fi rst trial), 94 trials worldwide and 54 commercial launches
Success stories in multiple countries, notably Italy (Unipol), Spain (Mapfre), France (Groupama), the UK (Insure the box), Austria (Uniqa) and the US (Progressive)
Overall, we estimate PAYD-equiped vehicles at over two million worldwide
We expect the number of insurance telematics vehicles to be multiplied by 50 by 2020
USA
UK
Italy
France
South Africa
Germany
Ireland
Belgium
Spain
Other
0 105 15 20
Global Evolution of Location – Frederic Bruneteau, CEO, Ptolemus
25 30
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Power consumption for a large number of objects from consumables to home keys
Size and weight for low value consumables such as food and drinks
Cost e.g. for low-end consumer electronics such as watches
Industries that are not used to integrate electronic components into their products e.g. handbags or car keys; or that do not have the location culture (digital cameras, surveillance cameras)
Ecosystem road blocks e.g. for credit cards or containers
What are the fi ve current major challenges to geolocate the 16 billion objects in Europe?
Global Evolution of Location – Frederic Bruneteau, CEO, Ptolemus
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
The location game is not over, it is starting
The speed cycles will be given by the smartphone
There is value in location: by combining it with other elements into an end-to-end experience
In our view, the location industry needs to revisit the obvious and defi ne smart ecosystem strategies rather than just throwing up products to its customers!
Our upcoming Global Location Study will provide the technology and market insights
Global Evolution of Location – Frederic Bruneteau, CEO, Ptolemus
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Location-as-a-Service (LaaS): a Platform for Location Services – Steve Gray, CTO, CSR
GPS Attenuation
Level
40-45 dB
30-31 dB
25 dB
12-14 dB
Small commercial
building
Indoor Arena/
Mall
2 level parking
structure
Brick-faced
masonry
Typical North
America residence
Dense urban environment
Wooden building
Typical Indoor environments attenuate GPS beyond detection for commercially available receivers
Advertised aided commercial C(A) acquisition threshold (A-GPS cell phones)
Advertised unaided commercial C(A) acquisition threshold (A-GPS cell phones)
Cannot detect indoors
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Location-as-a-Service (LaaS): a Platform for Location Services – Steve Gray, CTO, CSR
24 satellites orbiting at altitude of 12,000 miles
Low cost GPS engine enables location in Smartphones
2D position requires three satellites
Positioning using GPS – How it works
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Location-as-a-Service (LaaS): a Platform for Location Services – Steve Gray, CTO, CSR
Existing WiFi and cellular signals are surveyed and logged in a database
‘Finger prints’ of RF signals are recorded in a database
Position is determined by interpolating fi nger print data
Corporate WiFi is deployed for broadband and indoor location
Angle-of-arrival, time-of-arrival or received signal strength is used to calculate position
Position server records location dynamically
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Enterprise/gov segmentTargeted at government and large enterprises where there is a need for content access control, campus maps/WiFi tiles restriction (for employees only), military-grade geofencing, etc.
Market trends and attributes: BYOD, handheld location policies, MDM, Geofenced security (military grade). Location context Apps
Deferentiator:• Indoor positioning and locations• Agile middleware applications• Boeing Irridium radio
Asset tracking segmentThis segment is targeted at fi xed (Vending sys, offi ce/lab/medical equipment, etc) and mobile (goods in transit, fl eet, people, etc.) asset tracking in large enterprises and healthcare institutions.
Market trends and attributes: low cost (<$25) mobile, MRM/M2M apps with outdoor-indoor tracking
Deferentiator:• Location accuracy• Indoor positioning capability• Server Location Aiding (A-GNSS,
E-ECID OTDOA
Consumer LBS segmentThis segment is targeted at consumers at Big-Box stores and Malls. The technology will be used to guide shoppers to the right departments and Product areas. Provide retail-specifi c coupons and specials, etc. @20B advertising business.
Market trends / attributes. Focucus on indoor commercial retail with three-metour
Deferentiator:• Indoor navigation• SLA
Three LBS markets – Enterprise, Asset Tracking and Consumer
Location-as-a-Service (LaaS): a Platform for Location Services – Steve Gray, CTO, CSR
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Location-as-a-Service (LaaS): a Platform for Location Services – Steve Gray, CTO, CSR Location-as-a-Service (LaaS): a Platform for Location Services – Steve Gray, CTO, CSR
Total LaaS market (volume of units)
1,000,000,000
18% CAGR
900,000,000
800,000,000
700,000,000
600,000,000
500,000,000
400,000,000
300,000,000
200,000,000
100,000,000
0201620152014 20172013
Consumer LBS Total Market 209,024,554 246,313,077 283,601,600 352,684,041 438,594,256
Mobile Enterprise Total Market 129,535,398 130,800,752 132,078,759 133,369,547 134,673,243
Asset Tracking M2M Total Market 135,000,000 168,750,000 210,937,500 282,000,000 352,500,000
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Location innovations are making the world a smaller place
Indoor location will dramatically change the marketplace
Cloud and web services enable new business models
New multibillion € businesses will evolve leveraging new location technologies
Location-as-a-Service (LaaS): a Platform for Location Services – Steve Gray, CTO, CSR
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Location Based Advertising: What does it mean to brands and do the agencies care? – Asif Khan, Founder, LBMA
A location-based service (LBS) is an information and entertainment service, accessible with mobile devices through the mobile network and utilizing the ability to make use of the geographical position of the mobile device.
Wikipedia
01 LBS
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Location Based Advertising: What does it mean to brands and do the agencies care? – Asif Khan, Founder, LBMA
Location-based marketing (LBM) bridges the gap between all forms of marketing media. Inclusive of social media, internet, out-of-home and real life interaction. It is about the integration of media to infl uence people in specifi c places.
The LBMA
02 LBM
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Source: TNS/Kanter Group
Smartphone ownership
50
40
30
20
10
0Global Emerging
AsiaEurope MENANorth
AmericaLatin
AmericaDeveloped
AsiaSub-
Saharan Africa
30%
46%
31%
42%
21%
32%
46%
21%
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Why are people using location-based services?
50
40
30
20
10
0Navigation
46%
Finding friends nearby
22%
Checking public transport
19%
Finding restaurants
25%
For a deal or specifi c off er
13%
Source: TNS/Kanter Group
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
How much interest is there in using location-based services?
People not currently
using LBS, but interested
People not currently using LBS and not interested
Source: TNS/Kanter Group
62%
38%
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Location Based Advertising: What does it mean to brands and do the agencies care? – Asif Khan, Founder, LBMA
Preference for mobile off ers delivery% of respondents, January 2012
60
50
40
30
20
10
0Voicemail
8% 4% 9%
16%
Mobile App
11%10%
26%
12%
Text
32%
38%
16%
60%
Other
50%49%
26%
18%
Mobile web (email, etc.)
21%
13%
60%
26%
Opt not to receive them on
mobile
4%2%
12%
1%
US UK Germany France
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Location Based Advertising: What does it mean to brands and do the agencies care? – Asif Khan, Founder, LBMA
Interact and engage an audience
Tap into user-generated content
Excite and delight their audiences
Drive permission-based relationships
Acquire key data including demographics, interests and location-based data
Drive to web for online engagement
Drive to store for coupons and off ers
Drive to experience at a location
What are brands trying to achieve?CO
NN
ECT
COLL
ECT
CON
VERT $
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
ABI Research Mobile Augmented Reality, Thomas Alt, CEO, Metaio
Augmented reality in LBS% of respondents, January 2012
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
02010
US$
Mill
ions
20132011 20162012 20152014
Mobile, in-App advertising Mobile, in-App purchase Mobile, paid applications Handheld AR games
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
Source: Augmented reality in LBS – Thomas Alt, CEO, Metaio
Smartphone adoption will lead to massive growth of the Mobile AR market
Consumer adoption of Augmented Reality will be based on individual but solid use cases
Revenues for Mobile AR will be generated from
• In-App advertisement • AR games • In-App purchases • Paid applications
Revenues will grow from $21 million in 2010 to $3 billion in 2016
Source: XXX
Mobile Fact Pack The Hottest Predictions for 2012
By 2014, AR will be on every Smartphone