Kyrgyzstan_8.2 Updated Strategy 2009_DRAFT_02.06. 09

7/30/2019 Kyrgyzstan_8.2 Updated Strategy 2009_DRAFT_02.06. 09

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KYRGYZSTAN STRATEGY 2009

Coping with Complex ChallengesDraft version: 2 June 2009

NB: This is a draft. The terms and outline in this paper have not been agreed upon. The title ofKyrgyzstan Strategy is a working title. Not for citation.

A human crisis is looming in the Europe and Central Asia Region, said Shigeo Katsu, World Bank

Vice President for the Europe and Central Asia Region. Within 10 months of the crisis, countrieshave started to lose the poverty gains made over the last 10 years. By end-2010, we may unfortunatelysee 35 million more people fall back into the poverty and vulnerability trap. This is a human crisis that is

going largely unnoticed in the talk of the global financial and economic crisis.1

SECTION I: OVERVIEW

BackgroundKyrgyzstan has entered a difficult phase due to the convergence of several external crises. Theonset of the global economic crisis has come at a time when the country is struggling withenergy deficits, three years of drought and the effects of high food prices. This has aggravatedunderlying development challenges that have long faced the country and a compound crisis isemerging where basic needs are increasingly not being met.

Despite the countrys first ever humanitarian appeal in 2008, the country is losing ground in its

efforts to meet the key social objectives set out in the Countrys Development Strategy and alsothose defined for the country under the Millenium Developmental Goals. 2The challenge facingKyrgyzstan is different from a large-scale natural disaster or the situation following an armedconflict, where needs are clearly visible and can be defined in traditional terminology.


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of the humanitarian appeal or development business as usual, but requires an innovative,integrated approach that includes both an on-going humanitarian response and targeted

development programmes that are rapdily implemented. Together, these two elements willsustainably address the needs of the most vulnerable over the next 18 months.

The analytical tools and funding mechanisms (to support solutions that are both humanitarianand developmental), however, are separate and there are obstacles to integration of the twoapproaches. Yet, there is growing recognition within the UNCT in Kyrgyzstan that a hybridmethod is essential to address the complexity of the challenges that have emerged and arecontinuing to emerge. For example, one household in five is at high nutritional and health risk:caloric intake for these families has been decreasing since 2006, particularly due to reducedconsumption of crucial fats and oils. The provision of basic services (e.g., education, healthcareand potable water and sanitation) has long been poor due to a number of structural factors thatshould be addressed in a sustainable manner and in order to have effect on negative trends, forexample, in nutrition. The imposition of widespread rolling electricity blackouts last year haspushed the provision of these services into a critical situation. The provision of basic services hasgradually passed from a level of marginal quality to non-existent or unacceptable, even while the

statistical documentation of impact on human wellbeing is lagging behind.

Another area that demands a hybrid approach is the agriculture sector: it accounts for 40 percentof GDP and 60 percent of employment but is experiencing serious challenges. Agriculturalworkers are among the poorest people within the population. Recent price drops have furtheraffected this sector. For example, prices for sheep in Talas and Chui provinces fell from 4,500som ($110) in November to 2,500 ($61) in January. Assessments show that productivity can beincreased significantly in fairly short order with the injection of improved seed, equipment and

credit. But, longer-term gains and sustainability require on-going technical assistance and moreeffective water management schemes. A programme to achieve the short-term gains must linkeffectively to longer term objectives in capacity building of farmers and improved watermanagement, from the outset, to be sustainable.


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exogenous shocks is multiplied disproportionally by the long-standing development problemsfacing the country. It is clear that in this context, serious challenges emerge for the country and

for donor partners. Defining the right balance of response is often hampered by inadequateinformation and a lack of forward planning. We now see some factual basis to back up initialimpressions that the combination of shocks is draining household coping capacities.Nevertheless, it is important to recognize that there will be a real lag in statistics that documentthe true impact of a slow onset crisis such as this.

Construct of a crisisThe UNCT in the Kyrgyz Republic classifies the current situation as an emerging compoundcrisis. By this, we mean: A combination of destabilizing events (e.g. exogenous shocks),infrastructure inadequacies and limited and/or constrained capacities, which are interlinked

in their impact, and where visible signs are subtle, slow to emerge and difficult to quantify

with traditional tools. The overall impact of the combination of circumstances exceeds the

ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources.

In particular, the compound crisis is characterized by the following:1.

Multiple hazard events, for instance: unusually cold weather, severe food insecurity,dramatic increases in prices, political instability4, disease outbreaks;2. A failure of basic services, for instance: a collapse of electrical and natural gas supplies, a

significant reduction in health, water and education services;3. Economic contraction, for instance: a reduction of economic activity, and loss of income;4. A lack of investment in the social and physical capital needed to address the causes of the

disaster to a point where conditions which can be anticipated lead to a disaster, forinstance: electrical and water systems in poor condition;

5. A high level of social acceptance of conditions which would be considered sub-standardin other locations, for instance: only receiving four hours of electricity per day whenoutside temperatures are below freezing and electricity is a major source of heating.


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more desperate the situation becomes. The initial emphasis on sustainable solutions begins to slipand the humanitarian fire-fighting mentality takes over.

Such situations make it difficult to mobilize appropriate funding for the situation. A compoundcrisis may not trigger immediate humanitarian aid, as humanitarian indicators do not show asharp decrease, but neither does development assistance keep pace with the on-going shocks andincreasing setbacks. Development projects may continue under the belief that temporarysetbacks will eventually be regained. When the situation does reach a critical point where greaterintervention is recognized as necessary, neither strict humanitarian nor development fundingmechanisms are suitable.

A further dichotomy between emergency and developmental exists. The UN system and localorganizations may not have the capacity to implement a humanitarian-style intervention.Likewise, arriving humanitarian actors may be unwilling to consider long-term sustainability inthe interests of addressing the crisis. Currently in Kyrgyzstan, the expertise of most internationalorganizations is focused on development. This is an obstacle to implementing a nuanced, hybridapproach.

Response mechanismsThe UNCT believes that this slow onset compound crisis characterizes Kyrgyzstans currentsituation and that this will characterize an increasing number of countries, demanding thedevelopment of tools and methodologies for an integrated approach. There are situations, such asclimate change, which alone can evoke a number of potential scenarios requiring a balancedhumanitarian and developmental response. Other scenarios, however, emerging from of the

potential impact of the global financial crisis on poverty trends in countries struggling to meetthe MDGs, or even in conflict situations such as Afghanistan where sustainability ofinterventions and capacity development of beneficiaries is crucial, but often mistakenly a distantpriority compared to others.


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regular development programming, hence the early recovery and transition appeals. However,after much intellectual consideration and analysis, the Kyrgyzstan UNCT has concluded that

neither of these tools fits the particular circumstances of the country.

A path forwardTherefore, the Kyrgyzstan UNCT, with full endorsement of the Prime Minister and the Ministerfor Economic Development and trade, is preparing an interim strategy, framed over the next 18months, after which the Government would launch its next Development Strategy and the UNsystem would launch its next UNDAF. This interim mid-term approach proposes a two-pronged,but coherent, set of projects targeted on the most vulnerable groups in the country. This proposal,

further defined herein, can be implemented rapidly against proven approaches, while clearlybased on principles of sustainability, and will significantly reduce the severity of the impact ofthe emerging challenges, while establishing the basis for sustainable development in the periodof the countrys next Development Strategy and the corresponding UNDAF.

Funding will be a challenge as donors are generally guided strictly by law on funding:allocations to humanitarian needs must respond to a humanitarian crisis but can be approvedquickly while development budgets are generally predetermined over a longer term time period,with fixed amounts for predetermined development objectives, and are difficult to adjustaccording to rapidly evolving circumstances. The solution is to show that the UN system itselfcan break through these obstacles, by obtaining some initial and balanced funding from both theUN Central Emergency Revolving Fund (CERF) for the humanitarian elements and from the UNDelivering As One Extended Funding Window (DAO) for the development solutions, withoutlosing the overall integrity and coherence of the 18 month strategy to assist the country towardsthe design and implementation of its next Development Assistance Framework. With a minimum

funding platform to enable action, the UNCT is confident that it can attract additional fundingfrom donors for specific elements of the proposal contained herein. We believe this canconstitute a best practice for other countries that either currently, or in the near future, will facesimilar circumstances.


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poorest families, pregnant and lactating women, and children) and to protect the assets of thepoor (e.g. reducing their consumption of seed stock and livestock). The other component would

address structural aspects, but are defined to have an immediate effect on peoples well-beingand would be the basis for a medium-term intervention.

This hybrid approach does not require an entire shift in the approach of internationalorganizations, but does necessitate an integrated and multi-faced approach. On-goingprogramming is the basis for expanded activities and an invitation for greater partnership. Insome cases addition human resources will be required, but should complement an organizationsactivities and mandate, rather than establishing a new role.

Thus, the recommendation for the following course of action:1. Develop the Strategy over the next four months in close collaboration with the UN

system and the government;2. Launch the Strategy with activities to be implemented (tentatively) in six areas:

decentralized energy, agriculture productivity, household food security, environment andwater resource management, essential service provision and risk management andmitigation;

3. Projects should last up to 18 months in each thematic area to have a short- to medium-term impact, bridging the gap until existing developmental programmes are realigned;

4. Where necessary, increase programming and human resources to cope with theadditional workload for the duration of the appeal.

Emergence of the Compound Crisis and it s effectsSeveral crises occurred during 2007-2008, which created the specific conditions for the

compound crisis. The country struggled to cope with extreme weather draining energy resources.This has caused emergency energy curtailments to be imposed throughout the country. Therehave been problems in the food security and economic sectors. As the most critical periods havepassed, there was little attention to the continuing effects within these sectors and how they


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without electricity. Despite this measure, water levels did not improve for the following winterseason. On 27 April 2009, the level of Toktogul Reservoir, the countrys largest energy-

producing reservoir, had fallen to its lowest point ever (6.3 billion cubic metres) and Governmentsources have indicated that they plan to renew curtailments later in October 2009. In addition,Kyrgyzstan will export electricity to Kazakhstan to repay the $25 million their northern neighbourprovided in energy assistance. This is in addition to planned releases for downstream countries in thevegetation period.

The emergency measure of energy curtailments created a series of new problems. Primaryhealthcare services stalled leaving some communities without proper refrigeration for vaccines

and other medicines, access to basic diagnostic equipment. In addition, the curtailmentsnegatively affected communications/media equipment, caused water pump failures and forced aprolongation of the winter secondary-school holiday in electrically heated schools as all aredependent upon reliable electricity. Small and medium businesses, in particular, were badlyaffected. Many were forced to reduce operations or close down.

In real terms, this has not only had a severe impact on peoples standard of living, but has alsoreduced government coffers. Despite the Prime Ministers claim that the rolling blackouts had no

real affect on the economy7, a report by the Kyrgyz Ministry of Economic Development andTrade together with USAID Economic Reforms to Enhance Competitiveness (EREC) Projectstated otherwise. The report claimed that for each month (since September 2008) the electricityrationing throughout the country, would result in a 0.6 percent loss of the state budgets annualincome.8 Official statistics show a 17 percent decline in electric power generation in 2008 and a30 percent decline during January-April 2009 (relative to the same period of 2008). This hasresulted in non-Kumtor industrial production falling 2 percent in 2008 and 22 percent duringJanuary-April 2009. The effects of this are only just being felt, but indicate that there areincreasing budget constraints.

In addition, inefficiency in the energy sector, linked to energy low prices and under-investment,h h i bili d i bili f idi l i i h h h


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disrepair. Lack of electricity is forcing people to cut down trees for fuel. This is having furtherenvironmental and livelihood repercussions. In urban areas, there is no real alternative to

electricity. This is severely impacting coping methods, as well as increasing potential healthrisks. For example, in Bishkek, health authorities reported a significant rise in the number ofpersons treated for carbon monoxide poisoning during the New Year period, compared to thesame period the previous year (71 incidents compared to 29, respectively). This indicates thaturban populations are using alternative fuels for heating purposes, often with little knowledge ofproper use and ventilation.11

If these energy shortages persist, serious consequences could ensue, not just for social welfare

and economic growth, but also for the countrys fragile political stability.

Agriculture

Agricultural production remained fairly stable, but it is still not enough to meet the countrysneeds. While harvest rates met government expectations, high food prices meant that peoplecould not afford basic food items. Growing problems in this sector are critical as agriculture isthe single most important contributor to the economy in Kyrgyzstan (accounting for 40 percentof the GDP and 11 percent of all exports).

The country has about 1.4 million hectares of arable land roughly 7 percent of the countrystotal area and over 70 percent of that depends on irrigation. Many rural residents, however, donot know how to use land in a sustainable and effective way. Small land-holding farmers alsolack knowledge of production for and access to national and international markets. There are fewextension services which address some of these basic needs. People in rural areas remain poorand young people continue to migrate to urban areas searching for better opportunities.

The September-October 2008 wheat harvest exceeded targets, but was still lower than theaverage of the previous five years.12A total of 385,000 hectares was harvested. The yields forrain-fed wheat were poor (0.3-0.9 ton/hectare) compared to the irrigated land (2.5-6.0


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agriculture sector from locust invasion. This has further weakened agriculture sector andincreased problems for household coping strategies.

Animal health is also reported to be poor in many areas, with outbreaks of brucellosis, widelyreported in throughout the country. Lack of animal health services is a chronic problem. Belowthe provincial level, there is a lack of adequate vaccination and drugs to treat animals. A shortageof animal fodder and high market prices for feed are increasing stress on herding families. Whileprices for fodder are reported to have been slightly lower in December, overall prices have beenhigh. There are persistent reports from around the country of distress selling of livestock, amidfears that poorer farmers have been unable to buy enough fodder for the winter, due to inflated

prices. Animal prices have dropped sharply from their September/October seasonal highs, furtherthan in previous years. For example, prices for sheep in Talas and Chui provinces fell from 4,500som ($110) in November to 2,500 ($61) in January. The lack of fodder has reduced animalhealth, while livestock holders are unable to pay the higher costs. A situation has emerged wherethey are unable to sell their livestock and do not have enough money to feed them.

Overgrazing near villages and under-grazing in high mountain pastures has led to a deteriorationcropland, irrigated land and pastures that are crucial to the food and livestock production. There

is also a lack of access to mountain pastures and a lack of knowledge as to how to use thesepastures effectively.

Improved access to credit and other financial services would allow farmers and livestock holdersto invest capital in improving their farms and livestock. While some microfinance institutionsthat do offer help, the interest rate is too high for it to be realistic to many poor farmers, who alsolack sufficient collateral.

Food Security

Kyrgyzstan has experienced a dramatic increase in basic food prices, draining household coping


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food. These districts are among the poorest in one of the poorest regions of Kyrgyzstan andindicate the seriousness of the situation in the remote rural areas of the country.

Provinces with the highest proportions of food insecure households (severe and moderate) wereIssyk-Kul (49 percent), Batken (42 percent), Jalalabat (41 percent), Talas (40 percent), Naryn (37percent) and Osh (36 percent). Provinces with the highest proportions of severe food insecuritywere Issyk-Kul (33 percent), Jalalabat (27 percent), Talas (27 percent), Naryn (25 percent),Batken (22 percent) and Osh (22 percent).

Household food security in Kyrgyzstan is slowly declining. According to WFPs updated

Emergency Food Security Assessment, which is based on analysis of household food securitydata collected by the National Statistical Committee, up to the third quarter of 2008, onehousehold in five is at high nutritional and health risk because of poor food consumption. Theircaloric intake is extremely low and the consumption of fats and oil shows a decreasing trendsince 2006. A majority of the vulnerable are located in rural areas and in districts where over 20percent of the population live below the Guaranteed Minimal Consumption Level, which is at alevel below the threshold used to define the extremely poor.

While the main causes of food insecurity are structural and chronic, the global economic crisishas exacerbated the problems. Rises in fuel costs (increasing by 23.3 percent) and a sharpslowdown in GDPgrowth (from 7.5 percent in 2008, to just 0.9 percent in 2009) have worsenedexisting household economic difficulties.

The Government recognizes that sustainable inclusive growth is not only key to raising peoplesliving standards and poverty reduction, but also that this will not be easy, especially in light ofconsiderable pressure on public financial resources in a weakening economy.

Economy


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growth. Average size of remittances has been estimated at $1,419 per migrant per year. Manymigrants from the Kyrgyz Republic work in sectors requiring low skills the two main sectors of

employment of Kyrgyz migrants are construction (45 percent) and trade (30.4 percent).

While there is no exact data exists on the number of labour migrants, it is estimated at 15-20percent of total labor force in the country. According to 2008 ADB survey results, two-thirds (67percent) of respondents go to the Russian Federation and 19 percent go to Kazakhstan.According to household survey data, more than 80 percent of all remittances come from theRussian Federation, slightly less than 10 percent from Kazakhstan and another 10 percent fromother countries. Thus, the current recession in the CIS is hitting Kyrgyz migrant labourers

particularly hard.

About 70 percent of all migrants are from rural areas, 10 percent from Bishkek and 21 percentfrom other urban areas. The majority of remittances are sent to rural areas and 55 percent ofremittances are spent on household expenditure, indicating a serious dependence of families onemployment abroad. A decline in remittances will have serious effects for all types ofhouseholds, considerably decrease GDP, private and government consumption.

Official estimates indicate the total number of labour migrants from Kyrgyzstan mainly toKazakhstan and Russia exceeds 500,000 and the amount of their remittances in 2008 reachingaround $1.3 billion (approximately 27 percent of the GDP). But in 2009, due to global economicdeclines and to major job cuts in Kazakhstan and Russian, about 200,000-300,000 labourmigrants are expected to come back to Kyrgyzstan and/or not migrate abroad. Job cuts arealready being felt in the Osh region as thousands of labour migrants return from Russia. In April2009, the chief of the Osh Regional State Committee on Migration, Nailya Zholdosheva, statedthat last year the number of officially registered unemployed citizens in the region was just10,000. That number has risen to 17,500 now. Local experts say that social tensions mightescalate in the region if the government is not able to set up new jobs in the near future.17


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are already at the stage of obvious desertification, 27 percent are at middle stages, and 17 percentare at early stages of desertification.

Kyrgyzstans 2009-2011 Country Development Strategy (as well as the JCSS and UNDAF)regards declining land productivity and reductions in land area under cultivation in recent yearsas major development challenges. The Strategy calls for enhancing trans-national cooperation,strengthening rural management of land-based resources, including cropland, grazing land,forests and wetlands, andmore efficient water use via the rehabilitation and modernization ofKyrgyzstans agriculture, irrigation systems and access to safe water for households.

Essential service provisionMany essential services such as health services and the provision of water, are essential forpublic health, safety and economic productivity have been negatively affected by the series ofcrises to hit the country. Their role is to satisfy collective and individual needs around at anadequate level of quality and at a price which is affordable for the consumer and guarantees thebest use of scarce resources: natural resources, expertise, technologies, capital, etc., while takingspecific local characteristics into consideration. This, however, has been compromised,particularly by energy curtailments and food insecurity.

Without clean energy, water and sanitation, adequate shelter, or transport people inevitablysuffer. No access to energy means businesses and homes cannot be powered. With limitedtransport systems, children struggle to get to school, and markets are harder to reach; making itdifficult for farmers to sell their produce. Long trips frequently endured by women and childrento collect water or firewood hamper productivity.

As many services play an important role in the achievement of the eight UN MillenniumDevelopment Goals (MDGs), improved access to basic services is a significant public policygoal and the challenge is to ensure that everyone has adequate access to such services, includingthe poor and marginalized members of society.


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There has been an worrisome increase in the number deaths of newborns including thoseweighing more than 1.5 kilogrammes indicating that children are dying due to lack of medical

assistance, or because the low quality of care.

A 2007survey conducted by Sanitary Epidemiology Service (SES) department of the Ministryof Health to detect the rate of parasitic diseases among children aged 2 to 12 years in Batkenprovince found 57 percent suffer from roundworm (ascaris), 86.3 percent from pinworm, 15.7percent from dwarf tapeworm and 13 percent for giardia. Qualitative research among childrenand parents shows there is inadequate knowledge about parasitic diseases and basic hygienepractices.

Under-five mortality and maternal mortality remain unacceptably high. In 2008 the maternaldeath rate was 54 cases per 100,000 births, while 44 children out of 1,000 live births die beforethey reach their fifth birthday. Only 55 percent of Kyrgyzstans hospitals and clinics are certifiedas baby friendly and poor nutrition is a leading cause of birth complications around 34percent of pregnant mothers suffer from anemia. Also increasingly there are significantdifferences between provinces, with poorer provinces having higher maternal death rates.

There are three regions, in which the poverty level as of 2007 exceeded 45 percent. These are:Jalalabat province (53 percent), Naryn province (45.2 percent) and Osh province (46.6 percent).In other regions of the country this indicator is below 45 percent. Practically in all of theregions, poverty level in rural areas is higher than in urban areas.

Since 2001, there has been a significant increase in new cases of HIV infection in the KyrgyzRepublic. The spread rate of the HIV infection in the country is the highest in the worldaccording to the WHO and UNAIDS experts. Over the past six years, the number of officially

registered people living with HIV in the country has increased 23.3 fold to 1,233 people, mainlyindividuals of reproductive age. Improved testing methods have indicated a near doubling ofcases from last year.19


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Traditional approaches to water quality have focused on central disinfection and management,

coupled with an envisioned robust distribution system. For many communities, households, andindividuals in developing nations, however, this approach not realistic, or effective at increasingpublic health, nor is it cost effective. In settings of poor regional infrastructure, dispersed ruraldwellings, or in areas of conflict, water quality may be more effectively managed in adecentralized fashion at the point-of-use (POU) by the household or community. While POUtreatment may require more effort on the part of individual households, it offers a means forhouseholds to affect their water quality independently and immediately. A common situation isone in which a large-scale piped water system is either not available, or is available but the water

is of poor or inconsistent quality. In both of these settings POU disinfection device offers manyadvantages.

For a POU system to be effective, it must be accessible to those who need it most. An accessiblesystem will be affordable, provide excellent pathogen removal, treat the required capacity ofwater, operate passively and be constructed from locally available parts.

To address the many different constraints that result in low water quality and availability, a new

approach is needed that departs from both the traditional model of central management of waterquality, and also the traditional scientific and engineering model of single, optimized, solutions.Instead, a diverse set of technologies and management practices are needed that can be:evaluated for use in diverse local settings; adapted to local needs; manufactured, distributed, andmaintained locally. It is important to remain cognizant of the fact that the call for distributed,effective, water treatment technologies is not to disagree with on central station water qualitysystems, but is a recognition that different regions, at different levels of socioeconomicdevelopment and with different types of public health infrastructure, require a diverse set ofeffective solutions until such systems can be adequately be brought to all areas of the country.

Risk reduction


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between the population and the authorities, as well as between the opposition and the authorities,coupled with unequal power-relations, feeds discontentment. Relations between local self-

governments and higher levels of authority are also often poor. This not only limits the scope ofauthorities to intervene in local conflicts, but demonstrates the structural disconnect that exists allthe way up to the central government and Parliament. Voices also continue to be marginalized,including those of youth and women. Despite recent improvements, women are underrepresentedin all levels and branches of government.

The full involvement and participation of women in the prevention and resolution of conflicts inKyrgyzstan is also hampered as a result of violence, intimidation and discrimination. Data from a

baseline assessment on violence against women in Kyrgyzstan in 200820 indicate that variousforms of violence against women exist in the country. These forms of violence include sexual,physical, economic, psychological and domestic violence. In terms of womens roles in conflictsituations, women are mostly considered to be purely passive and victims. There is a lack ofunderstanding of male and female roles in conflict situations and of the differentiated impact ofexisting conflicts and tensions on men and women.

Kyrgyzstan is a multiethnic country with strong minority identities. Unfortunately, nationalismand the surging emphasis on ethnic belonging tend to lead groups to analyze situations in theterms of us and them. Sources of conflict are often blamed on other ethnic groupsshortcomings, rather than being seen as common development challenges that could beaddressed through joint efforts.

The rise in religious activity, especially in the south, and the potential conflict over its place insociety is also a critical element of inter-group conflict in Kyrgyzstan. Many of the issues related

to religion are also linked to ethnicity with each group preferring to follow their own religiousleaders. Many communities in the Ferghana Valley, for example, have deeply rooted cultural andreligious traditions that resurfaced after the collapse of the Soviet Union and have resulted in thearea often being described as a hotbed for Islamic extremism.


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problems around border management) and political (limited political will to addresscorruption and weak and incoherent implementation of policy).

Second, corruption is seen as a widespread and deep-rooted challenge facing the country,which manifests itself in non-transparent land sales, privatization efforts, nepotism inofficial appointments, corrupt judiciary, and irregularities in elections, to mention some.

Third, weak community and national cohesion is expressed in terms of a lost or absent

state ideology, erosion of values, loss of civic identity, and limited civicpride/responsibility. It is a common theme to date and reflects a trend of eroding socialcohesion in the country. The systemic effects are seen through out-migration, high crimerates, environmental problems, mistrust towards the authorities, insecurity, and irregular

power/water supplies.

Capacities for peace were also analyzed in the context of Kyrgyzstan, and consist ofopportunities for small and medium enterprise development, the development of cross-bordermarkets, tourism possibilities in many of the oblasts, an active and developing civil society, andconditions for strengthening inter-ethnic harmony in the provinces. Participants, however,emphasized the weakness and vulnerability of these capacities, since they rely on values andinstitutions that are susceptible to political changes.

Household coping strategies

Due to the unprecedented occurrence and convergence of three international crises the countryincreasingly cannot provide adequate social protection for citizens. This has forced many toresort to limited, often harmful, coping mechanisms, such as reducing meals, eating lessnutritious foods, taking children out of school, selling livestock and other assets or borrowingmoney to feed their families. In the case of sudden spikes in the price of food and fuel, the poor

spend an even larger proportion of their income households buy less food or food that is lessnutritious as it cannot be adequately cooked especially in winter. While these copingmechanisms may alleviate hunger temporarily, they have longer term affects as they lead tomalnutrition harm livelihoods and are especially harmful effects for the elderly and children 21


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hardships often leaves them with no option but to keep their children out of school. In certaincases families have to cut back on the quantity and quality of food, which leads to poorer

nutrition and can have permanent effects on intellectual capacity and cause chronic poor health.This lowers educational completion rates and creates set backs in economic and socialdevelopment.

In difficult times, families often rely on women to care for the sick, older persons and those whocannot fend for themselves, making it difficult for women to earn an income outside the home.Culturally, women and girls are often expected to contribute financially to the family regardlessof how that money is earned. When there are few opportunities for wage work, girls and women

may end up being trafficked through the promise of a job or being lured or forced intoprostitution and other forms of extreme exploitation. And communities or groups that have beenexcluded from productive resources, such as decent work and social security are likely to behighly vulnerable to the negative impact of the global financial crisis and to volatility in food andfuel prices.

Assessments (TO BE ADDED )


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SECTION II: STRATEGY FRAMEWORK

Kyrgyzstan Strategy- Responding to challenge, Identifying Gaps and Further NeedsThe objectve of the Kyrgyzstan Strategy 2009 is to focus,

1) To ensure urgent, on-going humanitarian support to save lives and protect the vulnerable;

and

2) To augment and extend existing programmes within the UN system and key activities

outlined in the Country Development Strategy by designing and implementation of a

programmes that initiate rapid reaction development measures that sustainably address

mid-term needs and longer-term developemental goals within the next twelve to eighteenmonths.

The strategy analyzes the current situation and proposes a comprehensive response that addressesthe humanitarian crises and builds the foundation for recovery in the medium-term period. Thiswill be achieved by recognizing that overcoming acute and chronic vulnerability and enablingcommunities to lift themselves out of poverty is the paramount long-term objective. However,assisting communities to prepare for and deal with the short-term realities of various risks

remains a necessary pre-requisite to achieving that long-term objective.One of the quandries in this context is the fact that precarious, but chronic, social conditionstypically are not considered as a humanitarian need even though they can quickly become ahumanitarian crisis due to exogenous shocks such as declining remittances, energy or food priceinflation, or with the collapse of the energy supply system. The reality in Central Asia, ingeneral, and in Kyrgyzstan, in particular, does not match either a purely humanitarian nor apurely developmental definition with the corresponding complications in generating donorresponse, which categorizes funding and its not fungible between these categories thehumanitarian development divide, the bridging of which has long been a subject of debateamong practitioners and analysts concerned with disasters and emergencies. 23 As such, we have


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Facilitate a sustainable reduction in vulnerabilities and risks;

Design and implement stand alone capacity building components while ensuring a

holistic integrated response; Implement actions to enable rapid recovery of livelihoods and development;

Build capacity and rapidly implement approaches that can be applied on a large scale.

The goal is to create a strategic intervention, using a knowledge-based approach, to close the

gap between emergency relief and long-term development by halting slippages into a

downward spiral, where losses outweigh development gains and risks of future crisis

accumulate and avoid circularity of risk.

Kyrgyzstan is facing a situation that requires building self-reliance through a combination ofhumanitarian assistance and development programmes. The capacity of the population has beenseriously weakened and can easily slide into a position of insecurity due to the roll-back effectsof the recent compound disaster where there has been a striking decline in quality and access tobasic services, affecting the vast majority of people in their daily lives with the continuedsignificant social and natural risk and vulnerabilities such as food insecurity, low access to water

and energy and high morbidity.

To address the root source, aid resources should support durable integrated programming. Thisincludes supporting and expanding the types of integrated programs that are currently beingimplemented with aid resources. For this reason, relief processes needs to be situated in abroader developmental course so as to strengthen the capacity of communities to withstand anddeal with not only the immediate after-effects but also reduce vulnerabilities to future naturaldisasters.

The UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery broadly defines the main focus of EarlyRecovery (ER) as the process to kick-start nationally owned processes for post-crisis recovery


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most appropriate vehicle for delivering interventions as an integrated multi-sectoral approachfocusing on the key needs of affected areas and populations.

Disasters and continued crises are costly in both human life and resources; they interrupteconomic and social promotion and can lead to a gap in progress by creating separatebureaucratic structures and procedures that do not systematically take into account long-termdevelopment issues. Whereas separate/non-integrated development policy is not enough to copewith recurrent disasters, social or infrastructure deficiencies in isolation; but need to betterprotect vulnerable households by helping to develop and maintain systematic mitigation,reduction activities and sustainable coping strategies in partnership with post disaster relief and

recovery programs. The purpose of the program is to bridge this gap by institutionalizing acohesive disaster-to-development recovery link continuum from the onset of a disaster.

Though ER concepts begins within the humanitarian setting, they go a step further in helpingcommunities move, in parallel with emergency aid, to a self-sustaining position, however shouldnot be thought of as a separate step on the road from emergency relief to development but act tobridge the institutional and funding gaps that are traditionally encountered in crisis and recoveryprogramming. The key to a successful program is ownership by the affected nation providing anincentive for people to take ownership of the process and preventing an undue reliance onemergency aid at the expense of preserving economic cornerstones.

Strategy Framework

The Framework will have concrete interventions that:1. Bridge the gap between immediate relief and long term reconstruction2. Support the spontaneous recovery efforts of the communities

3. Prepare the ground for sustainable long term reconstruction4. Reduce future disaster risks and establish the foundations for the longer-term.

The framework proposes broad mechanisms and approaches for addressing the recovery


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Implementation while not necessarily to be done jointly, but as agencies agree to disinvest fromcertain sectors, allocating resources and human capacities in sectors where their value added is

clear; as long as monitoring mechanisms are developed so that the progress, challenges andopportunities of the individual UN Agency implementation is fed back through the Sector FocalPoints. Thus it is imperative to ensure that Sector Leads and Focal Points maintain and adopt anattitude of coping with challenge by articulating not only what it is we need, but howwe willbest meet this challenge and to remain focus to the overall outcome, as this is critical to ensurethe promotion of sound results based joint programming in order to make optimal use ofresources and capacities available according to a clear division of labor and comparativeadvantages.

Critical in ensuring programme coherence and focus will also allow for the access to resourcesavailable through the non-resident agencies, as they provide supplemental assets to the UNresident system to express their concerns in meeting longer term development planningframework. Thus by planning together, duplication and cost will be substantially decreased, andsynergies between UN activities are increased, moreover, the potential access to resources whichcan be deployed by interagency activities will also act as a positive incentive towards furthercollaborative work and mutual success.

Coordinating Leads and responsibilities

Humanitarian- RC/UNCT, ERT

Humanitarian actions and emergencies should be responded to through appropriate

mechanisms, including the Central Emergency Response Fund and the Common AppealProcess (CAP).

Mid-term development - RC/UNCT, ERT

Will provide strategic leadership throughout the programming process, bringing togetherrelevant analytical capacities, and developing synergies among the various UN assets andmandates, including mobilization of additional resources.


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Humanitarian CERF, CAP

Development Development as One Extended Funding Window, bilateral, HQ and

Government of Kyrgyzstan

Strategic Planning

Development UN Development Assistance Framework (UNDAF), Joint Common

Support Strategy (JCSS) and the Country Development Strategy.

Priorities

Primary infrastructure and lifeline facilities: Restoring and enhancing the capacity of

basic services that have either been destroyed or damaged during the current crisis.

Supporting the most vulnerable people/groups through reviving livelihoods: Support

local communities to gain a foothold in markets and develop agricultural and job creationinitiatives.

Emphasis on rural and inaccessible areas; particularly vulnerable groups in urban focal

areas to be also include:

Elderly poor There is an estimated 100,000 elderly poor. Many pensioners are

unable to pay for their electricity and gas. Persons with documentation problems There is an estimated 12,000 persons

with documentation problems. Many of these are internal migrant labourers who

are unable to procure residence registration in Bishkek.

Social institutions Most social institutions are represented by health facilities

and schools. There are roughly 39,500 people in these institutions and another

5,000 living on the street.

Approach

An integrated approach will be used, in which focused humanitarian action targets socially and


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Be aware of overlapping causes of vulnerability;

Recurrent shocks lead to a poverty trap and make a long-term perspective critical;

Priority must be given to preventative as opposed to curative interventions; Chronic vulnerability is not just a rural issue: though urban-based programming requires

special considerations.Considerations

Applying traction: This specifically refers to supporting and initiating on-going activities

by ensuring cross-cutting priorities are met, mainstreaming gender and environmentalsustainability and creating awareness about the relevance of human rights.

Accountability: Horizontal and downward to peers, not just upward to central levels. Sustainability: Ensuring that fiscal, asset, environmental, and social measures are

sustainable.

There are two additional areas that will be developed under the strategy: an inter-agency risk

monitoring system and a needs analysis.

1. Inter-agency Risk Monitoring System (IRMS)Risks are associated with a combination of hazards and vulnerabilities. Assessments of riskrequires a systematic collection and analysis of data and needs to take into account the dynamicnature of vulnerabilities that arise due to both human social-economic and natural impacts. Thetypes of data required include land use, environmental degradation, consequences of economicdeficiencies and natural events such as drought, floods earthquakes and climate change. This willhelp ensure effective response to acute and slow-on-set shocks, and not divert resources frommore sustainable programmes, but disentangling autonomous short-term emergency responses

from a holistic approach.

The problem of information is not so much the collection, as this is currently being done at manyle els and b ario s elements thro gho t the co ntr It is more in establishing a credible


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modifications to respond to changing circumstances, the shocks may be current/ongoing,frequent or potential, while adding emergency resources with the goal of enhancing longer-term

impact. This is particularly so in slow-onset and sub-national crisis and will be done throughselection indicators, definition of thresholds, enhanced monitoring, and analysis, reportingcapacities and consideration for action. In other words, develop baseline precursor events tomonitoring social vulnerability and needs, which will be instrumental to quantify changes insocial resilience which focuses on what is already in place: resources and adaptive capacities(OBrien et al. 2006: 71; Manyena 2006).

Following recommendations made in the Central Asia Regional Risk Assessment (2009, p. 10),

that development agencies should increase their human resources and other capacities to engagein disaster prevention programming, either on a permanent or surge capacity basis. Many of theproblems Kyrgyzstan is facing now do warrant additional human resources to implement crisisprogramming. In addition, risk management systems need to be put in place to understand thedynamics and evolution of the crisis, and further changes to the humanitarian situation. This willbuild in an element of preparedness to better ensure against falling into a repeated humanitarianneeds cycle.

Following the recommendations made in the Central Asia Regional Risk Assessment, a riskmanagement system needs to be developed. Risk needs to be understood as not only associatedwith a single event, but is also dependent upon the coping ability of resilience of households andcommunities. Crises are most often the result of a complex interaction of many overlappingfactors. This needs to be developed within a larger multi-agency system to collect data, analyzeand disseminate information within an Inter-agency Risk Monitoring System.

The Interagency Risk Monitoring System (IRMS) objectives will be: To improve the quality and quantity of socio-economic (and hydrological) data, so that

key development trends may be appropriately monitored and assessed, and theappropriate risk mitigation and early recovery responses designed and implemented; 24


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1. Why is this happening? (Pressure including dangers and threat factors)

The formulation of risk: the probability of occurrence for a given threat ; and the degree of

susceptibility of the element exposed to that source, analysis must move beyond the singular,backward-looking event-logging approach to context-based, forward-looking methodologies thatmonitor precursors.

2. What is happening? (State)

Understand the most likely threats, likelihood of disasters and their potential consequences.Although natural disasters and crisis are not precisely predictable, and are mostly anticipated,based on past experience, the analysis should include areas such as the current patterns of land

use, or population distribution, etc.

3. What are the consequences? (Impact)

The negative impact, or the disaster, will depend on the characteristics, probability and intensityof the hazard, as well as the susceptibility of the exposed elements (both people and assets basedon physical, social, economic and environmental conditions).

4. What is being done in this regard (Response)?

What resources are being allocated and what resources are possible and by whom. Properresponse depends on the quality and credibility of the overall system: understanding threats, clearpriority setting and institutional networks, etc.

5. What would happen if we do not take action? (Prospective vision)

Responses may require rapid outside assistance, but its success cannot be accomplished withoutthe benefits of widespread decision making and the participation of many others partners.

Developing and implementing an effective IRMS requires the resources and coordination ofseveral key actors as partitioning creates a patchwork of isolated approaches rather than acoherent, comprehensive, and connected view within the various elements as there are obvious


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staple crop is typically associated with increases in acute malnutrition or other signs ofpopulation stress (migration to different areas for work or pulling children out of school)

and other coping strategies. Alerting government and other elements to verify the problem and identify target groups

and mobilization the proper level of response to protect livelihoods and preventadditional stresses.

The diverse elements which are needed to ensure coordinated and effectual endeavors in

anticipating and managing risk and shocks of vulnerable groups will come from several different

levels and will ensure:

National Government

Are responsible for ensuring policies and frameworks, facilitate national technical assistance and

ensuring that the timely availability of data is received from all relevant ministries.

Regional institutions and organization

Provide timely specialized knowledge and advice.

International bodies

Provide coordination, standardization and foster exchange for data, knowledge and response.

Disaster Response Coordination Unit (DRCU)

Will be responsible for the final collection and analysis of data that have been collected by the

network and consolidated by REACT

IRMS Framework for Action


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fashion. Selection is tied to the ability to conduct ongoing surveillance on specific populationgroups or villages that include populations at risk and represent the various geographical areas.

Sentinel Site Surveillance is to be carried out in all provinces on a monthly basis. Sites have beenselected according to set criteria (see below) which have been standardized throughout. Withineach site, information is gathered both in households and at the community level. At thecommunity level, there are formal focus group discussions with key informants and an informalfocus group discussion with youth leaders, women leaders, teachers, and community healthworkers. Individual interviews are held with key informants such as medical officers and otherspecialists where possible. The market is also visited to obtain current price information on key

commodities. Finally, interviews are held at household level to determine dietary habits, foodsources, coping strategies, illnesses, and deaths.

With high risk of assessment fatigue, especially in the sentinel site situation, it is important tokeep visits to households as short as possible. Therefore, information that is relatively similarwithin a community is collected via focus group discussions and key informant interviews. Onlyinformation that greatly differs from household to household or that changes substantially frommonth to month is collected from individual households. Below is a list of the data collected at

household and community level from the sentinel sites. Data collection allows key indicators tobe followed on a monthly basis in order to be able to detect a change in the situation, potentiallyindicating the need for a response.

Sentinel Site Selection

Sentinel site surveillance does not provide a representative sample of a population because itserves a different purpose than survey data. It involves a purposeful selection from sentinelsites, thus, the criteria for site selection are:

Expected harvest;

People who have lost their livelihoods;

There is frequent movement, in and out;


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18 month) response to these problems. Data will be collected through semi-structured interviews(open questions) with Key Informants and Focus Groups. As much as possible, semi-structured

interviews with households individually will also be undertaken.

Objectives

The assessment will provide a quantitative indicative snapshot of the needs at rural sectorsthat will provide the basis for the strategic framework stating the prioritized 12-18 monthresponse activities to promote a rapid and sustainable recovery by:

Establishing the pre-crisis baseline in the targeted sector;

Determining probable impact of the financial crisis that will require humanitarian

response; Identifying vulnerable groups and the particular problems they face;

Identifying specific interventions specifically linked to particular issues and locations.


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SECTION III: AREAS OF INTERVENTION

Based on the principles of the strategy framework, there are a number of interventions that canbe implemented that would contribute to lessening the effects of the compound crisis. Thesebuild on existing competencies and, in many cases, initiatives that can be quickly deployed tohelp those in greatest need.

Areas of intervention Interventions

Livelihood and incomerecovery

Design and implementation of emergency employment

schemes (e.g. rehabilitation of community infrastructure) Micro- and small-enterprise recovery through short-cycle

business-management training, cash grants, access tomicrofinance schemes

Labor intensive rehabilitation works for restoration of

infrastructure

Train the trainers in seismically resilient shelter construction,

local engineers, and local contractors, self-builders and

community masons Technical assistance in designing seismically resilient

shelters is provided on an ongoing basis

Support for agriculture and livestock

Agro forestry including support for fuel efficient stoves

Introduce family greenhouses

Shelter Identify alternative/affordable building technologies for

rehabilitation/reconstruction (e.g., Insulation kits for schools,

hospitals and other critical infrastructures) Support to local traders to meet the market demands for

construction materials

Training of men and women in house building skills


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including geographic information systems

Support for ER resource mobilization efforts and the tracking

of donor assistance Support to civil society to enable and facilitate their

participation in decision-making processes

Disaster risk

reduction Strengthen early warning communication system

Community based training on in disaster reduction

Risk assessment of communities

Training of volunteers for disaster preparedness and

response

Construction of avalanche shelters Household flood mitigation

Water Improve watershed and sustainable land management in

remote and environmentally degraded areas

Introduce hydraulic water ram irrigation schemes to

vulnerable communities

Strengthen community water committees and sources of

water

Environment Arrest and reverse environmental degradation, and ensurethat environmental considerations are integrated into theplanning and development of sector projects

Environment impact assessment

Restoration of ecological destruction and support for further

protection and rehabilitation

Restoration of Greenbelt areas through the introduction of

appropriate seedlings and seeds (e.g.,. home-community

based nurseries program, grasses for fodder and soilstabilization)

Introduce hydraulic water ram irrigation schemes to

l bl iti


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Decentralized energy

Overall objective

To expand renewable energy technologies, such as solar power, biomass, and small hydro inorder to ensure that remote critical institutions receive a reliable source of energy to provideurgent, life-saving treatment. In addition, this will reduce poverty, ensure health and educationobjectives and improve Kyrgyzstans carbon profile.

Key strategic objectives

To ensure reliable energy access for primary healthcare and education facilities, properrefrigeration for vaccines and other medicines, including basic diagnostic equipment,

improvement of non-electric household energy supply, promotion of efficient energy use inincome and employment generating activities, training of local craftspeople and skilled workersin the construction of the distribution network, promotion of energy efficient buildings,appliances and techniques.

RationaleKyrgyzstan is experiencing energy challenges ranging from inadequate supply to theinfrastructure unable to handle increasing demand. This is particularly true in the rural areas

where 65 percent of the Kyrgyz population resides and in which many live below the povertyline in part due to not being reliably connected to the national electricity grid. 25 Official data for2008 show electric power generation dropping by 18.5% in the Kyrgyz Republic during the firsteleven months of 2008 forcing rural communities to rely on firewood and other local fuelsources for heat and cooking. In addition to reflecting material hardships, reliance on wood fuelsexacerbates problems of deforestation and land degradation, indoor air pollution concerns as wellas greenhouse gas emissions. The National Energy Programme of Kyrgyzstan (through 2010)and the Strategy for the Fuel and Energy Complex Development (through 2025) call for rapid

expansion of renewable technology. Greater use of renewable energy will also improve livingstandards in Kyrgyzstans poorest communities.


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Chronic food insecurity in Kyrgyzstan is quickly descending into repeated appeals for repeatedhumanitarian assisstance. A series of exogenous shocks have largely contributed to a

deterioration in social conditions that has been aggravated by the global economic, but is alsorelated to low levels of investment in the past in upgrading energy and water infrastructures.These have stunted development and created serious acute humanitarian changes to householdcoping capacities and societal setbacks.

Environmental and Water Resource Management

Overall objectiveTo strengthen and improve the management, conservation, and sustainable use of environmental

and water resources by promoting social and economic growth.

Key strategic objectivesTo enhance the efficiency of agricultural and household production, processing and marketing toincrease income and employment. To promote the sustainable stewardship of water resourcesand clean drinking water. This will enhance rural livelihoods while improving water resourcemanagement.

RationaleThe maintenance of environmental and water resources are essential for providing for basichuman welfare and improving the livelihoods of some of the most remote and vulnerable peoplein the country. Without proper management of resources, land degradation will limit productivityand in some areas increase the risk of natural disasters. Further, water-borne diseases couldincrease if people do not have access to clean water.

Risk monitoring

Besides promoting inter-sectoral and inter-agency coordination, the UNCT will continue todevelop coordination products, tools and services that will be made available to the UnitedNations, broader international community and Government. Priority areas for coordination


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To enhance the capacity of critical institutions (i.e. hospitals, other medical facilities andschools) to meet basic standards in care, especially for the most vulnerable sectors of the

population and people living in the remote areas of the country. To reduce the risk that thesepopulation groups are unable to access these essential services.

RationaleDelivery of basic services is constrained by insufficient resources, inadequate structure ofservices, weak capacities of service providers, and inadequate quality as reflected in poor clientsatisfaction. Recent trends reveal poor health, development and education outcomes for children,an inadequate health status for the general population and the absence of a comprehensive safety-

net system. Internal migration into the larger urban centers has resulted in deteriorating access toessential services such as birth registration, immunization and other child health services, schoolenrolment and regular school attendance.

In recent months, rural areas have experienced difficulties with the delivery of services essentialfor life, such as water, sanitation, electricity, education and health care. For example, energydeficits have led to disruptions in access to healthcare services in rural areas around the country.The cold chain has been seriously affected in these rural areas. Lack of heating in rural maternity

houses has led to an increase in home births. In addition, 852 schools were closed for anadditional 1-2 months over the winter, and there are indications that the water and heatingsystems in some of these schools have broken down. This has also affected the delivery ofservices essential for life, such as water, sanitation, electricity and education and health care.

Risk reduction and mitigation

Overall objectiveTo strengthen institutional capacities; reduce vulnerability to the natural and manmade hazards;and limit human, economic, and financial losses due to these disasters.


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include a Risk Monitoring System, in an effort to generate advance notice to determine newareas for emerging concerns.

Strategic Objectives

Develop and implement common strategies to address humanitarian, protection and

conflict support needs,

Maintain and disseminate a consolidated overview of needs and responses to challenges

to humanitarian, development and conflict support activities;

Establish and maintain systems for risk monitoring and warning;

Improve interagency preparedness and response to natural disasters, both slow-on-set and

acute.


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Annex 1 Proposed Projects

Sector Organisation Project Title

Essential Service Provision UNFPA Ensuring access to affordable health services inthe affected areas of the country for women ofreproductive age

Essential Service Provision UNICEF Strengthening the Immunization Cold Chain

Essential Service Provision UNICEF Improving Insulation of Schools

Essential Service Provision UNFPA / WHO

/ UNICEF

Reduction of maternal mortality (?) TBD

Access to Basic Services /Agriculture and Household FoodSecurity / Integrated environmentaland water resource management

UNDP The Naryn Area-Based Development project

Agriculture and Household FoodSecurity

FAO /UNIFEM

Immediate time critical assistance to enhancelivelihoods and food security of most vulnerablehouseholds by protecting their key economicassets, and increasing fodder, crop and vegetableproduction.

Agriculture and Household FoodSecurity FAO Support for the relief and rehabilitation processesof the agricultural sector

Agriculture and Household Food WFP Food Assistance to severely food insecure


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Risk Reduction and Mitigation UNV Strengthening Kyrgyzstan capacity to addressDisaster Risk Reduction strategies andMitigation at the Community Level through thevolunteer medium.

Risk Reduction and Mitigation WHO Capacity building at the community level onDisaster Preparedness and ResponseManagement

Integrated environmental and waterresource management

UNDP Seed farms development as contribution intofood safety.


UNDP Lowering land degeneration level


FAO Reversing the degradation of upland resourcesand deterioration of local people income


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Annex 2

Scenarios for Kyrgyzstan over next 18 months

Scenario Description Root Causes

WorstCase

Protracted and deep economic crisis in Russia and Kazakhstan forcesKyrgyzstani migrant workers to return

Global economic crisis;

Weak and poor economic policies

Returning migrants lead to increased unemployment and heightenedstruggle over natural resources, especially land

Lack of livelihoods;

Lack of job generation;

Collapse of government social support mechanisms

Returning migrants bring back diseases, including HIV/AIDS, but isunder-reported and the threat is unknown

Lack of data on returning migrants;

Poor testing and identification of people living with

HIV/AIDS;

Lack of information for labour migrants about health

dangersSteep fall in remittances, causing a sharp rise in poverty Economy dependent on remittances;

Household coping mechanisms too reliant on remittance

inflow;

Weakened or reduced access to livelihoods

Continued rise in food prices, creating acute malnutrition, particularlyamong vulnerable groups

Lack of imports;

Continued fragility of agricultural sector;

Lack of nutritional understanding

Rise in inter-group conflict over natural resources, especially in borderregions

Lack of resources;

Limited access to few remaining resources;

History of tensions, playing on stereotypes;

Unclear legislation over resource rights;

Poor knowledge of efficient resource use;

Lack of dialogue and mediation mechanisms;

Political tensions

In spring 2010, Toktogul Reservoir approaches or reaches dead level,depriving millions of electricity and heat. Knock-on effects fordownstream countries during following vegetation period, leading to

Poor energy sector infrastructure;

High transmission losses;

Poor tariff and payment mechanisms;

37


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heightened regional tensions Theft and non-payment;

Inefficient use of resources

Repairs at Bishkek Combined Power Plant are delayed or not thoroughenough, or fuel stocks are low or are not supplied, causing the plant towork at minimum capacity, providing energy only to a few residents and

critical institutions in central Bishkek.


Lack of alternative energy sources;

Lack of regional agreements on power sharing;

Extremely cold winter

Lack of energy causes serious problems in critical institutions. Inaddition, water pumping equipment and sewage treatment plants can nolonger operate, leading to a severe decline in water and sanitationstandards

Poor energy infrastructure;

Large scale theft of essential equipment;

Few alternative power supplies available for critical

institutions and infrastructure

Two thirds of schools are forced to close for more than two months Poor energy infrastructure;

Limited alternative power supplies available for

children;

Lack of winterization and insulation for schools;

Lack of appropriate resources to ensure adequatestandards

Lack of energy leads to an increase in deforestation (including fruit-bearing trees), reducing livelihoods and increasing risk of naturaldisasters (avalanches, mudslides and landslides)


Energy grid does not sufficiently reach rural areas;

Lack of alternative energy sources;

Poor understanding of disaster risk mitigation and

management

Large scale earthquake hits densely populated area, major infrastructureand/or dislodges uranium tailings, resulting in high death toll and

possible pollution of regional arteries

Disaster risk mitigation and management structures in

early stage of development;

Government lacks capacity to handle large-scale natural

disasters; Difficult to access remote areas;

Transportation to hospitals problematic;

Hospitals do not have capacity to handle major disasters;

Cold chain not effective and medicines cannot be easily

distributed;

No seismic proofing for buildings or major

infrastructures;

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Lack of disaster preparedness by population;

No investment into securing hazardous materials

Influenza pandemic hits Kyrgyzstan, overpowering government copingstrategies, resulting in a high death toll

Cold chain not effective and vaccinations cannot be

easily distributed;

Lack of government capacity to handle pandemic

No known stockpiling of influenza vaccinations;

Energy curtailments force many critical institutions to

shut down;

Poor nutrition makes the population susceptible to

disease;

Hospitals and staff do not have capacity to handle

pandemic;

Poor knowledge of medical practitioners

NormalCase Economic stagnation in Russia forces some Kyrgyzstani migrant

workers to return home. Economy continues to perform poorly until

mid-2010


Some measures introduced to restructure economy

Returning migrants lead to a small rise in unemployment and there areisolated cases of conflicts over natural resources due to localcircumstances

Poor livelihood development schemes;

Insufficient government social support mechanism

Returning migrants bring back diseases, including HIV/AIDS, but isunder-reported and the threat is unknown

Lack of data on returning migrants;

Poor testing and identification of people living with

HIV/AIDS;

Lack of information for labour migrants about health

dangers

Fall in remittances, but not significantly as many workers in trade andservices retain their jobs in Russia, poverty indicators rise somewhat

Country and household coping strategies not overly

reliant on remittance inflow;

Limited access to livelihoods

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Continued rise in food prices, malnutrition is a concern, but does notpresent a drastic change on current levels

Limited imports;

Continued reduction in agricultural outputs;

Lack of nutritional understanding

Isolated incidents of inter-group conflict over natural resources,

especially in border regions, largely a continuation of existing tensions

Limited access to resources;

History of tensions;

Unclear legislation over resource rights;

Poor knowledge of efficient resource use;

Lack of dialogue and mediation mechanisms;

Political tensions

Toktogul Reservoir remains at a low level, energy curtailments areenforced. There is a small chance of knock-on effects for downstreamcountries during following vegetation period


High transmission losses;

Weak tariff and payment mechanisms;

Ineffective use of resources

Repairs at Bishkek Combined Power Plant maintain its current capacity,however, curtailments are still required

Poor energy infrastructure;Lack of alternative energy sources;

Sufficient fuel reserves and supply to meet expected

demand;

Agreements established for fuel imports

Energy curtailments disrupt work at critical institutions, especially thosewithout generators. In addition, some water pumping equipment andsewage treatment plants break due to constant electricity flux. There isdamage and disruption to water supply and sanitation systems in someareas


Limited alternative power supplies available for critical

institutions and infrastructure

Nearly half of schools in the country are forced to close due to energycurtailments

Poor energy infrastructure; Limited alternative power supplies available for

children;


Lack of appropriate resources to ensure adequate

standards

40


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Energy curtailments lead to deforestation (including fruit-bearing trees)in some areas, reducing livelihoods and increasing risk of naturaldisasters


Energy grid does not sufficiently reach rural areas;

Limited alternative energy sources;

Poor understanding of disaster risk mitigation and

management

A series of avalanches, landslides and mudslides affect mountainous andremote areas, causing deaths and disruption to transportation

Disaster risk mitigation and management structures in

early stage of development;

Government lacks capacity to handle serious natural

disasters;

Difficult to access remote areas;

Transportation to hospitals problematic;

Hospitals do not have capacity to handle major disasters;

Cold chain works only in some parts, delaying the time

medicines can be distributed;

No seismic proofing for buildings or major

infrastructures;Lack of disaster preparedness by population

Seasonal diseases cause increased infection, but limited access to healthfacilities is available

Cold chain working in only some parts of the country;

Access to hospitals a problem;

Energy curtailments force many critical institutions to

shut down;

Poor nutrition makes the population susceptible to

disease;

Hospital and staff do not have capacity to handle high

number of cases;

Poor knowledge of medical practitionersShort-term economic stagnation in Russia and Kazakhstan. FewKyrgyzstani migrant workers return home.


Strong measures taken to reduce affects of crisis

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B

estcase After a short rise, unemployment figures decline as foreign businesses

reinvest in the country and create job places Maintenance of livelihoods;

Continued job generation;

Continued government social support mechanism

No major outbreak of HIV/AIDS is detected Improved testing quickly identifies new cases;

Improved data on returning migrants and domestic cases

of people living with HIV/AIDS;

Increased awareness of health dangers

Remittances fall slightly, but recover. Poverty remains at current levels Strict macroeconomic measures followed by Central

Bank;

Household coping mechanisms not overly reliant on

remittances;

Improved access to livelihoods

Food prices stabilize. Nutrition continues to improve throughout thecountry

Increased imports;

Strong measures taken to improve agricultural

production;

Increased availability of fertilizers;

Extension services provides for farmers;

Improved knowledge of nutrition

Inter-group tensions exist, but there are no open conflicts, border areasremain calm

Improved access to resources;

Attempts to improve legislation over resource rights;

Improved efficient use of resources;

Improved dialogue and mediation mechanism;

Reduced political tensions

Government energy strategies work and Toktogul Reservoir avoidsreaching the dead level. Curtailments affect many, but there are noserious consequences. Small-businesses suffer the most.

Energy sector weak; Transmission losses;

Improved tariff and payment mechanisms;

Reduced theft;

Improved use of resources

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Repairs at Bishkek Combined Power Plant strengthen its currentcapacity

Greater financial investment;

Guaranteed fuel imports;

Fuel stocks at maximum capacity before winter;

Mild winter

Energy curtailments are kept to minimum. Generators at critical

institutions are able to meet demand. Water pumping equipment andsewage treatment plants are unaffected.

Weak energy infrastructure;

Critical institutions provided with alternative sources of

energy

Only a few schools in remote areas forced to close Weak energy infrastructure;

Limited alternative power supplies available for

children;


Few resources to ensure adequate standards

Minimum energy curtailments prevent the need for people to cut downtrees for heating. The risk of landslides and avalanches is reduced.People keep fruit-bearing trees and continue their livelihoods.

Weak energy infrastructure;

Access to alternative energy sources; Improved understanding of disaster risk mitigation and

management

The country does not suffer from a significant natural disaster. There areexpected avalanches, landslides and mudslides, but there are no majorfatalities

Emergency measures in place are sufficient to meet

scale of disasters;

Access to hospitals remains good;

Hospital and staff capacity is not overstretched;

Demands are not beyond the professional understanding

of medical personnel

Minimal seasonal illnesses are reported Cold chain operating;

Improved nutrition; Access to hospitals;

Improved detection of illnesses;

Government coping strategies are not overstretched

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Documents

Kyrgyzstan_8.2 Updated Strategy 2009_DRAFT_02.06. 09