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Kathy Abbott, PhD, FRAeS
Federal Aviation Administration
27 November 2015
Federal AviationAdministration
Finding a Balance
2
Overview
• Regulator exists in a larger context
• One size does not fit all
• Change
• Complexity
• Balance – of what
3
Overview
• Regulator exists in a larger context
• One size does not fit all
• Change
• Complexity
• Balance – of what
“Personal” vs. “Public” Risk Assumption
SkiingScuba Diving
Mountain Climbing
NationalDefense
Smoking Hang Gliding& Ultralights
CommercialFlight
SightSeeingFlights
PrivateAviation
Significant PersonalChoice/Freedom
PublicRisk
PrivateRisk
HighwayAccidents
SmallAircraft
Accidents
LargeAircraft
Accidents
High PublicConcern/Responsibility
5 5
Governmental Role
Personal &
Commercial
InherentlyGovernmental
NationalDefense
Mail Air TrafficServices
CommercialAviationSafety
PrivateAviationSafety
InternationalAviation
Agreements
GovernmentEnables
GovernmentOversight
GovernmentDoes
IdeasFree Speech
Religion
6
U.S. Aviation Fatal Accident RatesAnnual Average from 2005 through 2009
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Society’s Safety Expectations – Circa 1945
Commercial
General Aviation
•PHOTO: Public Domain
Less Demand
More Demand
Public Demand for Safety Assurance
8
Less Demand
More Demand
Public Demand for Safety Assurance
Society’s Safety Expectations – TodayContinuously Advancing…
(2014)
9
•Less
•Demand
•More
•Demand
•Public Demand for Safety Assurance
Society’s Safety Expectations – 2018Continuously Advancing…
10
Overview
• Regulator exists in a larger context
• One size does not fit all
• Change
• Complexity
• Balance – of what
11
Applying the Safety ContinuumSystem Safety
Extent of Safety Effort
Figure Adapted from Figure 3-1 of FAA System Safety Handbook
http://www.faa.gov/library/manuals/aviation/risk_management/ss_handbook/
Risk of accidents due to inadequate safety program
Risk of accidents due to lack of safety innovation
Total Risk
+
-
12
Extent of Safety Effort
SEEK Too much rigor…→ innovative safety enhancements don’t reach the fleet
→ Finite dollars that could be spent on safety enhancements go elsewhere
→ fatal accidents increase
•Establish appropriate balance in our regulatory approach
Applying the Safety ContinuumSystem Safety
Too little rigor…→ safety escapes
→ fatal accidents increase
•Achieve safety objectives while imposing the least burden on society.
+
-
Risk of accidents due to lack of safety innovation
Total Risk
Risk of accidents due to inadequate safety program
13
Overview
• Regulator exists in a larger context
• One size does not fit all
• Change
• Complexity
• Balance – of what
14
What has changed?
15
New Technologies and Operations
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Effects of Change
• Resistance• “Change fatigue”
17
Overview
• Regulator exists in a larger context
• One size does not fit all
• Change
• Complexity
• Balance – of what
Increase in number and complexity of airspace procedures
18
19
Find the runway…
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Overview
• Regulator exists in a larger context
• One size does not fit all
• Change
• Complexity
• Balance – of what
21
Finding Balance - Regulatory• Prescriptive
regulations• Early development of
standards for new technologies
• Standardization of regulatory material
• Optimizing for one segment of industry
• Optimize airspace procedure
• Performance-based regulations• Mature standards based on
operational experience
• Rapid evolution of regulatory material
• Accommodating the range of equipment and operations
• Accommodate range of capabilities and non-normals
22
Finding Balance – More General• Flexibility• Safety• Local optimum• Geographic specificity• Growing demands• Expert based
operations• Personal
accountability
• Complexity• Security• Global harmonization• Worldwide applicability
• Cost and schedule • Reliance on procedures and
checklists• Organization
accountability/culture
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Organizational Culture
• Not “safety culture”• Look at indicators• Look at incentives and disincentives• Look at subcultures
We need better ways to evaluate and monitor organizational culture and its influence on operations and safety
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Concluding remarks
• Aviation is all about change• Many forces at work• Need to be operationally driven• Fatal flaws can come from imbalance• There is no “optimum”• Finding a reasonable balance is hard but
necessary • Beware overly simple solutions to complex
problems
