www.weatherwithouttechnology.co.uk

JULY 2020

PREAMBLE

Tree of the month to the 7th is the oak, thereafter the holly

Welcome to the July 2020 website entry, maybe, just maybe some slight easing in the trying

conditions caused by this damnable Coronavirus problem; in the meantime, stay safe, take

care, keep to the rules and be sensible, this disease is no respecter of people and there is

nothing more important than you life; you have just once chance of life, do not throw it away

by a moment of stupidity.

“To laugh often and much, to win the respect of intelligent people and the affection of

children; to earn the appreciation of honest critics and endure the betrayal of false

friends.; To appreciate beauty, to find the best in others; to leave the world a bit

better, whether by a healthy child, a garden patch or a redeemed social condition; to

know even one life has breathed easier because you have lived. This is to have

succeeded.” Ralph Waldo Emerson.

I start with the monthly July synopsis from an assortment of trusted weather sources:

between 30th June and 2nd July there is generally a small drop in temperature. The first

week of July is in any case a period of rather variable temperatures, with weather tending to

be unsettled, certainly showery if not markedly wet, and usually some thunderstorms occur

from time to time in most districts. (which is why, combined with a Buchan cold period, the

Wimbledon tennis tournament invariably suffers rain disruptions - Ed comment). From 9

to 25 temperature levels are generally higher. The thunderstorm risk continues, though

the frequency of the outbreaks decreases. However, when these storms do occur, they

are normally heavy, and southern England in particular can be badly affected – northern

regions less so. Conditions generally during this middle period of July tend to be sultry

and humid, with winds blowing lightly or at moderate strength from the south. From 26 July

to the end of the month it is normally cooler, with rather wet and unsettled weather affecting

all districts. Moderate to fresh south-westerly winds are common and maybe strong at

times in the north. This unsettled weather normally continues into the first days of August,

so that the first four or five days of August tend to be appreciably colder than mid-July.

Christmas Day 2019 was for the greater part sunny for most of the UK, which indicated a

good grain and fruit harvest. January 1st the grass was growing, indicating just one hay

harvest in the year. Very old sayings, but tried tested and trusted sayings too; and as a

result, all the fruits had set on the trees by the first few days in May, soft fruits too, red-

currants etc were also well advanced, therefore no danger of damage from any severe May

frosts. The June weather encouraged excellent growth of the hay meadows ready for a

July hay harvest; for the same conditions too the early grain harvest in some parts prepared

for a July harvest. It is therefore no surprise to see that the weather for mid July is likely to

be excellent harvest weather for hay and early grain; such weather too encourages growth

to all fruits and nuts. Such identical growing conditions also appeared in 2019, when we

had a superb fruit and nut harvest – it was also an early harvest too. So, whilst such

excellent weather helps the farmers/growers and gardeners, it also serves as an early

warning system for some inclement weather to arrive October into November, already

nature is giving all the warning signs; I will expand on this in the August website entry for

bad events come in threes. Thos unfortunate enough to have been flooded out earlier in

the year, now have the virus to contend with, and, unless I am completely mistaken, the

third event will occur in the above autumnal period with a lot of rain to come too.

I have several mails here, this year several asking why I suggested those bedding plants

and other tender plants might well be better placed of planted out after 20th May. Nature

gives a lot of warnings in so many ways, the skill is being able to see and note and then

interpret such warnings, and if serious enough to highlight them here. I sit here now – mid

May – writing this and the Met office is giving dire warnings of winterish weather in some

parts of the UK with night frosts too, that to me is no surprise, the warnings were writ loud

and clear months ago, it is all about reading what nature tells me. A small, vital and

important clue as to whether frosts in your area are finished for winter/spring 2020, is to

look and see if the campion (the silene group in red or white flowers) flower is blooming.

This wild flower does not tolerate frosts, therefore since it is absent at the moment, then

there is a distinct possibility of frosts till to come. There are several such wild plants that

give warnings about future weather, it all about learning to read such warnings.

The rain and flooding earlier this year has affected farmers/growers/gardeners in many

ways, none very well either. The soils are now deficient of vital ingredients, cobalt,

copper, selenium and Vitamin E to name but a few, this causes a multitude of problems to

livestock too, it has not been a good year for such people. All I ask please is that if you

venture into the countryside, shut the gates after you, respect the land, it belongs to

someone whose income depends on that land, respect the animals too; we have wonderful

countryside to see and enjoy, please keep it that way. Alas though some say that farmers

are always complaining, this year again it transpires that they have just and good cause,

the winter crops were lost and had to be re-drilled, which inevitably means slower and less

growth; this year for the second time in three years they have been hit by exceptionally dry

conditions, which means soil turns to dust and nothing grows, and, having communicated

via mails with many farmers across the UK and Northern Ireland it does appear to be the

case that a shortage of home produced vegetables is now a distinct reality.

Which prompts the question why not harvest the water when it is available? Many parts of

the UK do not normally need water reserves to survive, having said that, reservoirs take a

lot of land, even more time and most of all require planning consent. Here in Kent we are

acutely short of water yet trying to get a new/another reservoir built is easier said than done.

There are objections for the NIMBY faction, CPRE, CLOA and many others, everyone

requires water – but please not here!! Everyone chases their tail and all the time the

problem increases. Other countries build water distribution into motorways at the

construction time, alas that too is very expensive, but it does move water to those who have

an excess to those who have shortage. Parts of the east of the UK have less annual

rainfall than Rome too, so we not exactly over supplied with water. Maybe the time has

come for water to be made a vital commodity; whilst the swimming pools are full, the lawn is

greener than one next door, gallons are sloshed over the cars keeping them clean and

shiny and the water keeps coming out of the tap no one cares. Petrol (with gallons of

over-supple out there too) is expensive and promotes careful usage, it hits the pocket hard,

but we learn to be prudent (most of the time). So why not raise the price of water, I

appreciate fully the social and welfare problems involved for some, but surly if you can

afford a swimming pool or expensive lawn or expensive car, then why not more expensive

water? Plans can be formulated for the vital users and social and welfare causes, but we

pay quite easily our car and house insurance, many have subscriptions for TV etc, so what

is wrong with trying to conserve water by raising the price? Controversial maybe, but time

has come to get real, do you or do you not want that cup of tea – the water comes out of

the tap – one day it might stop flowing…..think about it.

12/5/2020: Some national newspapers reported the harmful effects of sap from the

hogweed family of plants when the stem is broken and sap emits coming into contact with

skin and sunlight; horticultural experts commented on the height of such plants this year

and their effect on humans and other plants, some ventured to say that the spread was due

to flooding and the hot weather of late. Sadly all missed the point, as pointed out on

previous website entries, that these plants also are ‘feeding safe havens’ for ground feeding

birds in October/November. Once again the methodology is well ahead of the curve.

I have remarked before that it is quite apparent that there is change in rainfall patterns here

in many parts of the UK, and once again in May this change became apparent with yet

another drought (14 days or more consecutive with none or no measurable rainfall falling).

Whereas we previously had rain showers meaning that some provision for wet weather was

the norm, we now have long periods (14 days or more) of no rain or precious little to be of

no consequence; this being replaced by periods of very heavy rain over a period of a few

hours, sometimes half the monthly average falling in such a period, in the worse event a

whole month’s rain falling in a very short period, sadly with the inevitable result of flash

flooding and sometimes even worse; but, whilst this pattern has changed, the overall

annual rainfall does not seemed to have changed that much. I wait for some truly expert

explanation of this change of rainfall pattern. On the subject of change, again, some

exceptionally hot unseasonal temperatures in May too, the second such unexpected hot

period for the time of the year.

Several mails arrive here asking for information on bright stars, moon, and most things

celestial, Venus raises many such mails with its brightness. A suggestion to those that

have such interests is a free website to which you can subscribe to for up to date current

daily reports is : www.earthsky.org I am sure many will find this an extremely interesting

site.

Since the virus, many have spare time and as such surf the internet, several find/discover

the website and as such find it interesting enough to sit down and mail me. Many do not

read the basic rules I set out for the website, therefore without wishing to appear or be

impertinent, but I will re-iterate the basics here. I do not do daily weather forecasts, the

Met Office and other such weather bureaux are more capable of doing this and as such do

a good job. The website is to provide the reader, but in particular those that need reliable,

tested, tried and proven methodology to give them a very good idea of the weather 90 –

180 days ahead; the being farmers/growers/horticulturalists/gardeners/thatcher’s/livestock

owners plus those that need to plan ahead – even rail maintenance workings. To be told in

January that there will be only hay harvest in the year is vital; to know that late frosts will

persist into mid-May is also vital. So, I come to weather with a unique but different

perspective, the moon phases and nature control our UK weather, our very astute and

clever forefathers knew this, and wrote such matters down; all I do is to follow in their

footsteps using their basics, everything else to those basic is ancillary, but equally vital.

Our forefathers had no knowledge of jet streams, polar vortex, anticyclones or anything of

that nature, yet they managed perfectly well; for the same reasons I too ignore such current

meteorological terms, nature provides everything one needs to know at least 90, and in

many cases 180 days ahead; if you follow the saws/sayings on the website datasheet

through the year you will find that everything dovetails perfectly. It is all a matter of using

your eyes to look and see, then noting such small changes and when each monthly website

is assembled, everything falls into place in a perfect dovetail. The more I do, the more I

learn, one cannot beat experience and deep knowledge; computer programs cannot see

that the ground is rock hard and that insects that, if the ground was softer then insect larvae

that over-winters below ground would hatch. So the martins and swallows arrive, but

without insect food they cannot raise a family; as such they delay collecting mud to build

their nests until the insect population increases; at that stage nest building commences safe

in the knowledge there is sufficient food to feed the chicks. Hence whilst computer

programs have their uses, they cannot see all. Eyes see all and therefore with skills and

experience the result is more accurate.

I get mails from newer readers asking why when the website says fine and dry, it is raining

where they are. The weather in Carlisle, Clovelly, Canterbury and Carstairs is all different;

however every reader can find their own weather, and by following the instructions below

everyone can do it with a minimum of 90% accuracy. On the website, top line go to

‘Forecasts’ click and from the drop down menu to previous/archive months and trawl down

the list to December 2017, click and on the second page of the preamble there you will find

concise instructions how to work out your own location weather. Good luck, and it does

work very accurately too, there are now over 300 readers who use this system over the

years now with excellent results.

I work at least 15 months ahead as a matter of course this gives a wonderful foresight of

weather to come and also why at time weather is as it is. For those that scoff at such a

claim, I suggest you use the system as explained in the previous article and combine this

with the monthly spreadsheet entries to combine the tides Buchan periods etc. However

although I have the basic framework months ahead, nature provides vast amounts of vital

data too, and, as such, here in the SE we are running some 4 weeks ahead of the norm,

therefore another early autumn but fruitful and plentiful ahead, an excellent fruit and nuts

year again, but also all the signs and warnings of a similar late autumn weather period as

2019, in other words put very simply, nature is filling up the larder well ahead again this

year (as in 2019) for the birds and animals, because at the same time nature is telling me in

no uncertain terms that we have a very wet autumn and another long hard winter ahead. I

will explain the nuts and bolts of this in following website entries, but already nature is

preparing and nature is never wrong. As every farmer/grower knows winter 2019/20 was

really long and hard, to those that sadly sustained flooding, and they too have bad

memories. It therefore gives me no joy to give, even at this early stage warning of more of

more of the same later this year. If you look at the height of giant hogweed, teasel,

burdock to name a few and see their massive flower and seed content; look at the sloes on

the blackthorn, hawthorn, spindle and other such vital berry trees you will see these too are

full of such vital supplies, even elder flower is in massive flower this year. Just look and see

what nature is telling us.

I keep a record of hours in the year when the mean temperature exceeds 6C (why 6C –

because that is the temperature at which things begin to grow). This year here in the SE

we are some four weeks ahead of the norm, a short glance at the figures at the end of May

shows just how warm it has been so far this year compared with the recent years:

2017 = 468: 2018 = 341: 2019 = 359: 2020 = 563.

From such comparisons it is easy to see just why things are so far advanced this year.

Facebook, Twitter et al: Again for new readers in the main, to re-iterate my steadfast

position on such social websites. I do not do Facebook, Twitter or any of the other social

sites on the internet. I will and do however reply to each and every contact email that

arrives via the website and also the personal mails from previous enquiries. The reason for

not joining into such groups/contacts is very simple; a search of You Tube reveals that the

whole world has countless weather experts out there; many in fact technically breach

copyright by using data and content from my website – without any acknowledgement. I

have more important things to occupy my time than to admonish such misfits; however

none of these numerous sites run by ‘experts’ does what I do, for quite simply they do not

have the experience, knowledge, understanding and factual ability to disturb the

methodology here. So, to keep my limited time available I decline to enter such social

discussions, those that know me also appreciate that I do tolerate fools and idiots either. I

can and do take reasoned comment and argument, and, when necessary I put my hands

up; I try to abide by the aims of the website which is to educate, interest, inform and

entertain the readership on just how fortunate we are to live in such a beautiful land and

how we may enjoy it more, and, in so doing just see how the weather here shapes what

and how we do it. You have to learn to take the rough with the smooth appreciate the

good and suffer the not so good, not a lot to ask then.

For those that wish to increase their weather knowledge or to see, without recourse to Met

Office and other weather bureaux websites, there is an excellent website compiled monthly

with data supplied by weather watchers, such as myself, to a very high standard. The site

is www.col.org.uk you can join and receive an electronic monthly magazine too for the sum

of £11. Give a look and see what detail is provided about your own region by those that

live there.

For those whose walks I had to cancel due to the virus, it appears that restrictions will

eased from July onwards, that being the case, if any of those who had their walk postponed

wish to rebook, then I am sure an amicable arrangement can be made, just use the contact

page, or the personal e-mail address from the cancellation.

As for cancelled talks – I do not think as yet the time is right for such meets, for those a

longer wait will be necessary – sadly for all concerned.

Finally, a heartfelt thank you to all those who found the time to sit down and write to tell me

of their joy that the website would not now be closing as earlier suggested. I am pleased

that so many find the site interesting, instructional, educating and gets the weather right

most of the time; the sometimes acerbic, at times forthright and uncompromising, but at

times necessary comments that fly off these pages will continue. What you see is what

you get, it is always honest, and if I am wrong then I put hands up and apologise; but, thank

you all for your interest and encouragement, slowly the word spreads, the knowledge grows

too.

Keep safe, take care, this damnable virus will be with us for months yet, just be sensible

and we can all come out the other side intact. Enjoy the summer.

@David King Edenbridge June 1st 2020.

JULY 2020

NEW MOON = 20th @ 1833hrs = Fair 1st QUARTER MOON = 27th @ 1332hrs = Very wet

FULL MOON 5th @ 0544hrs = Rain LAST QUARTER MOON 13th @ 0029hrs = Fair

5th = Penumbral Lunar eclipse @0530hrs visible in London.

27th = Delta-Aquarid meteor shower

DoP = 15th St Swithun

Highest Spring Tides 22nd to 26th

APOGEE 12th @ 2027hrs: PERIGEE 25th @ 0554hrs

MET OFFICE NOTES: None . BUCHAN NOTES: 29th June to 4th July cool period. 12th -15th Warm period

1st If the first week of July be rainy weather -'twill rain more or less for a full four

weeks. It always rains on the first Friday in July. 2nd St Mary If it rains today it will rain for 4 weeks. 3rd St Thomas Rain today, rain for seven weeks. Commencement of Dog Days (to 28/8) - hottest part of the year.

4th to 16th If fine and summery, the rest of the summer is likely to be fine. 10th Celtic Knut the Reaper with hay cutting scythe worshipped. (hay making

period). 12th Apogee @ 2027hrs 14th St Processus & St Martinian If it rains today it suffocates the corn,

Statistically the day with the highest average temperature.

15th St Swithun DoP. Said to mark the weather for 40 days. Lily flowering day. 16th Lavender Day Gather bunches of lavender to hang in wardrobes

for perfume and to repel insects. 19th Flying Ant Day The day the flying ants copulate in their thousands. 20th St Margaret If rain, then talk of Margaret's flood - see below. Poppy

flowering day.

22nd St Mary Magdalene Alluding to the wet, usually prevalent about the middle of

July, the saying is 'St Mary is washing her handkerchief to go to her cousin's st James's, fair (25th). Rose flowering day.

23rd Honiton (Devon) fair – festival lasts 3 days. 24th Perigee 0554hrs 25th St James 'Til St James be come and gone, you may have hops and you

may have none. English Oyster season officially begins today, celebrations at Whitstable, Kent.

29th -31st Can be very hot days.

Full moon this month is called Buck Moon but also known as thunder moon, deer moon, hay moon.

Tree of the month up to 7th is the Oak, thereafter Holly is the tree.

General Notes and Comments

The ‘meadow month’ or ‘hay month’ - traditional labour of month being hay-making.

July should be, and quite often is, a month of blazing sunshine and soaring temperatures.

Hay making and harvesting in full swing.

Dog-Days - the moist sultry days in a period of 20 days before and 20 days after the rising of the Dog-Star Sirius. If we are to have a summer at all, this is the

most likely time. Roughly from mid-July to the end of August, or, corn harvest time. Sirius is the

brightest star in the heavens, and is one of those in the southern constellation Canis Major. As the Dog-days commence so they end. Bright and clear indicate a happy year, but accompanied by rain, for better times our hopes are vain.

St Swithuns Day (15th) if thou dost rain, full forty days it will remain.

[this saying never comes true]

If on St Swithuns feast the welkin lours, and ever pent house streams with nasty showers,

twice twenty days shall clouds their fleeces drain, and wash the pavements with incessant rain.

[not acceptable as continuous rain, but acceptable as showers/showery with bright intervals might be acceptable]

St Swithun’s day is normally a ‘bit of both’ day, half sunny & half wet. ‘Sunny intervals and showers.’ Despite the 40 days rain tag, it is more accurate to

say ’sunny intervals and showers.’ If it rains on St Swithuns Day. the saint is christening the apples, and they will be

sweet and plentiful.

Watch the weather from the 4th to 16th July. If it is fine and summery, the rest of summer is likely to be fine. [this is quite possibly true]

If about St Swithun’s (15th) a change of weather takes place, we likely to have a

spell of fine or wet weather.

When the sun enters Leo, the greatest heat then arise.

In July, shear your rye.

When the Goats-Beard (wild flower) closes its flowers before mid-day, then there is rain in the air. If it stays late with its petals open, the atmosphere is dry and

the weather set fair.

When the clover leaves are shut (even with clear sky and rising glass) and reaching for the sky, reach for your brolly. [very reliable]

St Margaret (20th) - so much rain often falls this day that people speak of Margarets

Flood. A shower in July when the corn begins to fill, is worth a plough of oxen, and that that

belongs theretill.

Much thunder in July injures wheat and barley.

In July cut your rye.

What is to thrive in September must be baked in July. [grapes are a perfect example]

When the months of July, August and September are exceptionally hot, January will be the coldest month. [can be confirmed- but not always]

The first Friday in July is invariably wet. [4/5]

Fog in March -Thunder in July. [check previous readings]

A poor forecast for wheat indicates wet weather in July and August.

A swarm of bees is not worth a fly.

A swarm of bees in May is worth a load of hay; a swarm of bees in June is worth a silver spoon. A swarm of bees in July is not worth a fly.

FULL MOON THIS MONTH IS CALLED BUCK MOON, but is also known as thunder

moon, deer moon or hay moon.

Tree of the month up-to 7th is Oak. Thereafter Holly is the tree.

MONTHLY AVERAGES FOR EDENBRIDGE (USING 1981-2010 FIGURES) Mean Max: 24C Mean Min: 12.1C Mean Avg: 18.5C Rainfall: 66.6mm Sunshine: 220.3hrs (day = 7.11hrs) Whilst I appreciate the above are local figures, it will be an indication of what the

averages are, and, of course there will be local variations. Such variations can be found by trawling the various weather websites, or by using the superb data found in the Climatologists Observers Link website.

©David King Edenbridge June 2019

DATE Chandler & Gregory Brooks Lamb Buchan Met Office Season

Barry & Perry

July 01 22 June - 5th 29th - 4th 18/6 - 9/9

July 02 return of cold high summer

July 03 westerlies period

July 04 to UK

July 05

July 06

July 07

July 08

July 09

July 10 10th - 24th

July 11 warm period

July 12 12th - 15th

July 13 13th - 7th August High risk period warm

July 14 for period

July 15 higher mean temperatures.

July 16

July 17

July 18

July 19

July 20

July 21

July 22

July 23 23rd- 30th - 6th August

July 24 Thundery cyclonic weather

July 25

July 26

July 27

July 28

July 29

July 30 18/6 - 9/9

July 31 high summer

Jul-20

Date Day Moon Weather DoP Saint/Holy Other Apogee Equinox Met Buchan Super- Highest

Day Day Perigee Eclipse Office moon tides

01/07/2020 W NONE cold

02/07/2020 T St Mary period

03/07/2020 F St Thomas to

04/07/2020 S St Bullion 4th

05/07/2020 S FULL Rain Penular lunar

06/07/2020 M eclipse 0530hrs

07/07/2020 T

08/07/2020 W

09/07/2020 T

10/07/2020 F Celtic Knut

11/07/2020 S the reaper

12/07/2020 S Apogee warm

13/07/2020 M Last Q Fair 2027hrs period

14/07/2020 T St processus & 12th to

15/07/2020 W YES St Swithun St Martinian 15th

16/07/2020 T Lavender day

17/07/2020 F

18/07/2020 S

19/07/2020 S flying ant day

20/07/2020 M NEW Fair St Margaret

21/07/2020 T

22/07/2020 W highest

23/07/2020 T 22nd

24/07/2020 F to

25/07/2020 S St James Perigee 26th

26/07/2020 S 0554hrs

27/07/2020 M 1st Q Very wet meteor shower

28/07/2020 T

29/07/2020 W

30/07/2020 T

31/07/2020 F