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Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)
© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information
and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
1
Ipsos MORIOctober 2016 POLITICAL MONITOR
Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 2
VOTING
INTENTIONS
3Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
47%
29%
6%
4%
7%7%
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016 ; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends
vote in General Elections = 749. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015
GE.
Voting Intention
45%
32%
7%
4%7%
5%
ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTIONHEADLINE VOTING INTENTION
CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +13
CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +18
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
UKIP
GREEN
LIB DEM
OTHER
4Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Ap
r 03
Oct
03
Ap
r 04
Oct
04
Ap
r 05
Oct
05
Ap
r 06
Oct
06
Ap
r 07
Oct
07
Ap
r 08
Oct
08
Ap
r 09
Oct
09
Ap
r 10
Oct
10
Ap
r 11
Oct
11
Ap
r 12
Oct
12
Ap
r 13
Oct
13
Ap
r 14
Oct
14
Ap
r 15
Oct
15
Ap
r 16
Oct
16
2015 General Election
Miliband
elected
(Sept 10)
Corbyn
elected
(Sept 15)
May
as PM
(July 16)
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: c. 700 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote
and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections
Headline voting intention: April ‘03 – Oct ‘16
2005 General Election 2010 General Election
Cameron
elected
(Dec 05)
Brown
as PM
(June 07)
CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM
Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 5
SATISFACTION WITH THE
GOVERNMENT AND
PARTY LEADERS
6Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
22%
34%
44%
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB
AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS ?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016 . Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government
37%
53%
9%
-5.5%swing from September
2016
+3.5%swing from September
2016
-0.5%swing from September2016
- 1.5%swing from September
2016
+16 Net -24 Net -12 Net -16 Net
SATISFIED 48% SATISFIED 31% SATISFIED 22% SATISFIED 37%
DISSATISFIED 32% DISSATISFIED 55% DISSATISFIED 34% 3DISSATISFIED 53%
48%
32%
19%31%
55%
15%
Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn Tim Farron The Government
7Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS … ?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Satisfaction with Party leaders Sept 2015 – October’16
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Sep
15
Oct
15
No
v 1
5
Dec
15
Jan
16
Feb
16
Mar
16
Ap
r 16
May 1
6
Ju
n 1
6
Ju
l 16
Au
g 1
6
Sep
16
Oct
16
MAY CORBYN FARRON
48%
31%
22%
8Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME
MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers
MAY CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER
Net
sati
sfact
ion
NUMBER OF MONTHS FROM BECOMING PRIME MINISTER
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
May
9Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE …
PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2016)
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
Net
sati
sfact
ion
HOWARD BLAIR (94-97) DUNCAN SMITH (01-03) MILIBAND (10-15) CAMERON (05-10) HAGUE (97-01) CORBYN (15-present)
10Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME
MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016
Theresa May (satisfaction)
48%
32%
19%
October 2016 September 2016
SATISFIED 48%
DISSATISFIED 32%
DON’T KNOW 19%
Net = +16
54%
27%
19%
SATISFIED 54%
DISSATISFIED 27%
DON’T KNOW 19%
Net = +27
11Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME
MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 376 Conservative supporters 18+ 14th – 17th October 2016 and 345 Conservative supporters 18+ 10th – 14th September
Theresa May (satisfaction amongst Conservative supporters
80%
8%
12%
October 2016 September 2016
SATISFIED 80%
DISSATISFIED 8%
DON’T KNOW 12%
Net = +72
81%
8%
11%
SATISFIED 81%
DISSATISFIED 6%
DON’T KNOW 11%
Net = +75
12Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
31%
55%
15%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec-
15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar-
16
Ap
rl-1
6
May-1
6
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
SATISFIED 31%
DISSATISFIED 55%
DON’T KNOW 15%
Net = -24
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF
THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016
Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)
October 2016 September 2015 – October 2016
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
13Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
54%32%
14%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec-
15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar-
16
Ap
rl-1
6
May-1
6
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
SATISFIED 54%
DISSATISFIED 32%
DON’T KNOW 14%
Net = +22
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF
THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 274 Labour supporters 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016
Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction amongst Labour supporters)
October 2016 September 2015 – October 2016
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
14Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
22%
34%
44%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec-
15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar-
16
Ap
rl-1
6
May-1
6
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
SATISFIED 22%
DISSATISFIED 34%
DON’T KNOW 44%
Net = -12
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016
Tim Farron (satisfaction)
October 2016 September 2015 – October 2016
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 15
ECONOMIC
OPTIMISM
16Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
24%
17%53%
5%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Sep
-04
Mar-
05
Sep
-05
Ap
r-06
No
v-0
6
Jul-
07
Feb
-08
Au
g-0
8
Feb
-09
Au
g-0
9
Feb
-10
Sep
-10
Mar-
11
Sep
-11
Mar-
12
Sep
-12
Mar-
13
Sep
-13
Mar-
14
Sep
-14
Mar-
15
Oct
-15
Ap
rl-1
6
Oct
-16
IMPROVE 24%
STAY THE SAME 17%
GET WORSE 53%
DON’T KNOW 5%
EOI = -29
DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE
SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016
Economic Optimism Index
October 2016
17Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE
SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Feb
1997
Jun
1997
Oct
1997
Feb
1998
Jun
1998
Oct
1998
Feb
1999
Jun
1999
Oct
1999
Feb
2000
Jun
2000
Oct
2000
Feb
2001
Jun
2001
Oct
2001
Feb
2002
Jun
2002
Oct
2002
Feb
2003
Jun
2003
Oct
2003
Feb
2004
Jun
2004
Oct
2004
Feb
2005
Jun
2005
Oct
2005
Feb
2006
Jun
2006
Oct
2006
Feb
2007
Jun
2007
Oct
2007
Feb
2008
Jun
2008
Oct
2008
Feb
2009
Jun
2009
Oct
2009
Feb
2010
Jun
2010
Oct
2010
Feb
2011
Jun
2011
Oct
2011
Feb
2012
Jun
2012
Oct
2012
Feb
2013
Jun
2013
Oct
2013
Feb
2014
Jun
2014
Oct
2014
Feb
2015
Jun
2015
Oct
2015
Feb
2016
Jun
2016
Oct
2016
-29
Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 18
Impact of Brexit
19Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
NOW THAT BRITAIN HAS VOTED TO LEAVE THE EU, TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK IT WILL BE
BETTER OR WORSE FOR YOUR OWN STANDARD OF LIVING, OR WILL IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE?
ASKED IN MAY AS:
IF BRITAIN VOTES TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION, TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK IT WOULD
BE BETTER OR WORSE FOR EACH OF THE FOLLOWING, OR WOULD IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Brexit and standard of living
1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016
7
9
13
11
12
11
46
39
24
19
24
24
10
12
25
7
4
4
May-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
A lot better A little better Make no difference
A little worse A lot worse Don't know
20Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
18
47
30
514
55
26
5
QA: RECENTLY THE VALUE OF THE BRITISH POUND HAS DECREASED COMPARED WITH OTHER
CURRENCIES. (QB INCLUDES: THIS IS LIKELY TO MEAN IMPORTS TO BRITAIN FROM OTHER
COUNTRIES WILL BECOME MORE EXPENSIVE, WHILE BRITISH EXPORTS TO OTHER COUNTRIES WILL
BE MORE COMPETITIVE). ON BALANCE, DO YOU THINK THE FALL IN THE POUND IS A GOOD THING
OR A BAD THING FOR BRITAIN, OR DOES IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016
The depreciation of the Pound (Split samples)
QA QB
GOOD THING BAD THING MAKES NO DIFFERENCE DON’T KNOW
21Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
45%
39%
4%
7%5%
AND AS YOU MAY KNOW THERE HAS BEEN MUCH DISCUSSION ON WHAT BRITAIN’S RELATIONSHIP WITH THE
EUROPEAN UNION SHOULD BE AFTER IT LEAVES. SOME SAY BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING ACCESS TO
THE EUROPEAN SINGLE MARKET WHILE OTHERS THINK BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING CONTROL OVER
IMMIGRATION. WHAT DO YOU THINK BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016
Should Britain prioritise single market access or control of
immigration in its future relationship with the EU?
BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE
HAVING ACCESS TO THE
EUROPEAN SINGLE MARKET
BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE
HAVING CONTROL OVER
IMMIGRATION NEITHER PRIORITISE HAVING BOTH DON’T KNOW
22Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
AND AS YOU MAY KNOW THERE HAS BEEN MUCH DISCUSSION ON WHAT BRITAIN’S RELATIONSHIP WITH THE
EUROPEAN UNION SHOULD BE AFTER IT LEAVES. SOME SAY BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING ACCESS TO
THE EUROPEAN SINGLE MARKET WHILE OTHERS THINK BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING CONTROL OVER
IMMIGRATION. WHAT DO YOU THINK BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING ACCESS TO THE
EUROPEAN SINGLE MARKET
BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING CONTROL OVER
IMMIGRATION
18-34
35-54
55+
Male
Female
ABC1
C2DE
1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016 *all subgroups have minimum base size of 100
24%
54%
34%
38%
50%
35%
43%
29%
51%
57%
50%
32%
50%
39%
Should Britain prioritise single market access or control of
immigration in its future relationship with the EU?
23Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
AND AS YOU MAY KNOW THERE HAS BEEN MUCH DISCUSSION ON WHAT BRITAIN’S RELATIONSHIP WITH THE
EUROPEAN UNION SHOULD BE AFTER IT LEAVES. SOME SAY BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING ACCESS TO
THE EUROPEAN SINGLE MARKET WHILE OTHERS THINK BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING CONTROL OVER
IMMIGRATION. WHAT DO YOU THINK BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING ACCESS TO THE
EUROPEAN SINGLE MARKET
BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING CONTROL OVER
IMMIGRATION
Scotland
England
North England
Midlands & Wales
London
Rest of South
Degree or higher
Other qualifications
No qualifications
Conservative
Labour
1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016 *all subgroups have minimum base size of 100
61%
42%
42%
42%
55%
39%
67%
40%
26%
38%
58%
22%
41%
38%
46%
31%
41%
18%
45%
53%
28%
45%
Should Britain prioritise single market access or control of
immigration in its future relationship with the EU?
Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 24
Party Image
25Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
18%
34%
15%
29%
18%
42%
45%
25%
30%
11%
18%
11%
29%
69%
23%
41%
21%
33%
26%
56%
59%
26%
48%
47%
38%
53%
37%
53%
Keeps its promises
Understands the problems facing Britain
Has a good team of leaders
Looks after the interests of people like me
Fit to govern
Concerned about people in real need
Different to the other parties
I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN SAID
ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICAL PARTIES. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO…
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIBERAL DEMOCRATS
1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016
Positive attributes of party image
26Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
55%
35%
9%
46%
61%
64%
57%
55%
57%
82%
38%
61%
65%
52%
27%
45%
Will promise anything to win votes
Divided
Extreme
Out of date
I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN SAID
ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICAL PARTIES. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO…
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIBERAL DEMOCRATS
1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016
Negative attributes of party image
27Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
30%
48%
49%
68%
38%
29%
37%
56%
32%
48%
62%
26%
48%
47%
65%
52%
27%
38%
53%
37%
45%
53%
Keeps its promises
Understands the problems facing Britain
Has a good team of leaders
Will promise anything to win votes
Divided
Extreme
Looks after the interests of people like me
Fit to govern
Concerned about people in real need
Out of date
Different to the other parties
I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN SAID
ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICAL PARTIES. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO…
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
OCTOBER 2016 SEPTEMBER 2015
1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016
Conservative party image
28Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
26%
51%
27%
60%
75%
36%
43%
35%
61%
55%
62%
23%
41%
21%
57%
82%
38%
33%
26%
56%
61%
59%
Keeps its promises
Understands the problems facing Britain
Has a good team of leaders
Will promise anything to win votes
Divided
Extreme
Looks after the interests of people like me
Fit to govern
Concerned about people in real need
Out of date
Different to the other parties
I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN SAID
ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICAL PARTIES. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO…
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016
Labour party image
OCTOBER 2016 SEPTEMBER 2015
29Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
21%
43%
18%
60%
52%
69%
27%
16%
39%
48%
76%
25%
30%
11%
61%
64%
57%
18%
11%
29%
55%
69%
Keeps its promises
Understands the problems facing Britain
Has a good team of leaders
Will promise anything to win votes
Divided
Extreme
Looks after the interests of people like me
Fit to govern
Concerned about people in real need
Out of date
Different to the other parties
I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN SAID
ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICAL PARTIES. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO…
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor483 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016
UKIP party image
OCTOBER 2016 SEPTEMBER 2015
30Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public
19%
46%
16%
59%
50%
12%
33%
17%
55%
53%
55%
18%
34%
15%
55%
35%
9%
29%
18%
42%
46%
45%
Keeps its promises
Understands the problems facing Britain
Has a good team of leaders
Will promise anything to win votes
Divided
Extreme
Looks after the interests of people like me
Fit to govern
Concerned about people in real need
Out of date
Different to the other parties
I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN SAID
ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICAL PARTIES. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO…
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor533 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016
Liberal Democrats party image
OCTOBER 2016 SEPTEMBER 2015
Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)
© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information
and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
31
October 2016POLITICAL MONITOR