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IPSOS MORI How the voters voted inthe 2019 electionDECEMBER 2019


VOTINGINTENTION

© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2019 | Version 1 | Public

15%

46%

31%

12%9%

43%

34%

12%

Con Lead over Lab Conservative Labour Lib Dem

F

M

FM

3

Voting by Gender

F

F

M

M

Women were slightly more likely than men to vote Labour and slightly less likely to vote Conservative,

but there was no gender difference in voting Lib Dem

Base: 27,591 GB adults aged 18+, of whom 19,747 defined as likely voters according to our standard turnout filter (all 9/10 certain to vote, always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections,

registered to vote and answers reallocated to ensure parties standing in constituency) interviewed telephone and online 15 Nov – 11 Dec 2019. Data has been weighted to the actual election results

by region and to the population profile of Great Britain.


20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1974 1979 1983 1987 1992 1997 2001 2005 2010 2015 2017 2019

W M

4

Gender difference in voting over time

% Women voting Labour and % of Men voting

Labour

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1974 1979 1983 1987 1992 1997 2001 2005 2010 2015 2017 2019

W M

% of Women voting Conservative and % of Men

voting Conservative





2%

0%

-9%-8%

5%4%

2%

4%

Men Women

5

Change in Vote Share by GenderLabour’s vote share fell roughly the same amount among men and women

LabourCon Lib Dem OtherBase: 27,591 GB adults aged 18+, of whom 19,747 defined as likely voters according to our standard turnout filter (all 9/10 certain to vote, always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections,




45% 45%47%

41%

30%32% 32%

39%

16%12%

9% 9%

AB C1 C2 DE

6

Voting by Social ClassThe Conservative vote varied less by social class than in the past, while Labour did best among social

class DE and the Lib Dems best among ABs

LabourCon Lib Dem





-2%

1%2%

3%

-7%-8%

-9%-8%

6%5%

3%4%

3%2%

4%

1%

AB C1 C2 DE

7

Change in Vote Share by Social ClassLabour lost support among all classes




© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2019 | Version 1 | Public8

Vote by social class over time

AB C1 C2 DE AB C1 C2 DEAB C1 C2 DE

2010 2017 2019

AB C1 C2 DEAB C1 C2 DEAB C1 C2 DE

1992 2001 2005

LabourConservative

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

AB C1 C2 DE

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

AB C1 C2 DE

2015

1997





19%

27%

36%

46%49%

64%62%

51%

39%

28% 27%

17%

9%11%

13% 14%11% 11%

18-24 25-34 34-44 45-54 55-64 65+

9

Voting by AgeThe age divide in voting was key, and the gap even increased since 2017 to become the biggest we’ve

seen since our estimates began in 1979

LabourCon Lib DemBase: 27,591 GB adults aged 18+, of whom 19,747 defined as likely voters according to our standard turnout filter (all 9/10 certain to vote, always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections,




-8%

0%

3% 3%

-2%

3%

0%

-5%

-10%

-12%

-7%-8%

4%

2%3%

7%

4% 4%4%3%

4%

2%

5%

1%

18-24 25-34 34-44 45-54 55-64 65+

10

Change in Vote Share by AgeThe biggest swing away from Labour was among 35-54 year-olds, while the Conservatives lost

support among 18-24 year olds





Vote by Age over time

18-24 25-34 34-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 18-24 25-34 34-44 45-54 55-64 65+18-24 25-34 34-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2010 2017 2019

18-24 25-34 34-44 45-54 55-64 65+18-24 25-34 34-44 45-54 55-64 65+18-24 25-34 34-44 45-54 55-64 65+

1992 2001 2005

LabourCon

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

18-24 25-34 34-44 45-54 55-64 65+

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

18-24 25-34 34-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2015

1997





22%

31%

45%

58%59%

48%

30%

21%

10% 10%14%

11%9%

11% 11% 10%

18-24 25-34 35-54 55+

12

How men voted by age

LabourCon Lib Dem

Base: 13,268 GB adults aged 18+ identifying as male interviewed telephone and online Nov – Dec 2019. Data has been weighted to the actual election results by region and to the population profile of Great Britain. Voting

Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote, always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections, registered to vote and answers reallocated to ensure parties standing in constituency = 8.532


-14%

1%

5%

2%

7%

-6%

-12%

-9%

5%

2%

6%5%

2%3%

1%2%

18-24 25-34 35-54 55+

13

Change in Vote Share among Men by Age

LabourCon Lib Dem Other


Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote, always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections, registered to vote and answers reallocated to ensure parties standing in constituency = 8.532


17%

23%

37%

59%

64%

54%

36%

21%

9%12%

14%12%

10% 11%13%

8%

18-24 25-34 35-54 55+

14

How women voted by age



Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote, always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections, registered to vote and answers reallocated to ensure parties standing in constituency 8,337


-1% -1%

0%1%

-9%

-4%

-10%

-6%

4%

2%

6%

4%

6%

3%4%

1%

18-24 25-34 35-54 55+

15

Change in Vote Share among Women by Age



26%24%

27%

18%

52%55%

51%

63%

13%10% 9% 8%

AB C1 C2 DE

16

Voting by class among age

LabourCon Lib Dem

42%44% 44%

35%

29%

32%31%

42%

20%

13%

10%9%

AB C1 C2 DE

60% 59%61%

53%

17%20% 21%

26%

14% 13%

8% 9%

AB C1 C2 DE

18-34 35-54 55+





30%28%

21%

51%

54%56%

5%

9%

12%

No Qual Other Qual Degree+

17

Voting by qualification among age group

LabourCon Lib Dem

50% 49%

32%33%

30%

37%

7%

10%

20%

No qual Other qual Degree +

62% 61%

49%

20% 19%

24%

7%

11%

18%

No qual Other qual Degree +

18-34 35-54 55+

Base: 27,591 GB adults aged 18+, of whom 19,747 defined as likely voters according to our standard turnout filter (all 9/10 certain to vote, always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections, registered to vote and

answers reallocated to ensure parties standing in constituency) interviewed telephone and online 15 Nov – 11 Dec 2019. Data has been weighted to the actual election results by region and to the population profile of

Great Britain.


47% 47% 48%

43%

29%31% 30%

37%

15%

12%

8% 8%

AB C1 C2 DE

18

Voting by class within gender

LabourCon Lib DemMen Women

42%44%

46%

39%

31%33% 33%

40%

17%

13%

9% 9%

AB C1 C2 DE





-3%

4%3%

7%

-5%

-9%

-11% -11%

5%4%

3%4%

3%

1%

5%

0%

AB C1 C2 DE

19

Change in vote share by class within gender

LabourCon Lib DemMen Women

-1%

0%1% 1%

-9%

-7%

-9%

-7%

6% 6%

2%3%

4%

1%

6%

3%

AB C1 C2 DE





59%

47%

34%

23%

33%

39%

7%10%

17%

No qualifications Other qualifications Degree or higher

20

Voting by QualificationsThe Conservatives were ahead among non-graduates, while graduates were more split

LabourCon Lib DemBase: 27,591 GB adults aged 18+, of whom 19,747 defined as likely voters according to our standard turnout filter (all 9/10 certain to vote, always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections,




7%

1% 1%

-12%

-6%

-9%

3%4%

5%

2%1%

3%


21

Change in Vote Share by Qualifications






Vote by Education from 2017 to 2019

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

No qualifications Other qualifications Degree or higher No qualifications Other qualifications Degree or higher

2017 2019

LabourCon





57%

43%

33%31%

22%

33%

45% 46%

12%14%

7%

11%

Owned Mortgage Social renter Private renter

23

Voting by Tenure

LabourCon Lib Dem





2%

0%

7%

0%

-8%-7%

-12%

-8%

5% 5%

3%4%

1%2% 2%

4%


24

Change in Vote Share by Tenure






48%

20%

29%

64%

12% 12%

White All BME

25

Voting by Ethnic GroupLabour led among BME voters, the Conservatives among white voters

LabourCon Lib Dem





3%

1%

-10%-9%

4%

6%

3%2%

White All BME

26

Change in Vote Share by Ethnic GroupLabour’s vote share fell by roughly the same amount among BME and white voters






80%

3%

19%

8%

88%

11%8% 6%

63%

Labour 2017 Conservative 2017 Lib Dem 2017

27

Voting by 2017 Vote

LabourConservative Lib Dem




The Conservatives held on to more of their 2017 vote than Labour


20%

73%

48%

15%21%

3%0%

4%6%2%4%

1%

Remain Leave

28

Voting by Referendum VoteThe Conservatives won most of the Leave vote while the Remain vote was much more split

LabourCon Brexit PartyLib Dem GreenSNP





92%

73%

23%

2%2%6%

65%

85%

2%

19%

4%9%

2% 0%5%

0%

Con Leave Con Remain Lab Leave Lab Remain

29

Vote by 2017 General Election and 2016 EU Referendum Vote

LabourCon Lib Dem Brexit Party





TURNOUT


Estimating turnout is one of the hardest

challenges when relying solely on survey

data, as despite improvements to our

methodology people may still overestimate

their likelihood of voting, may think they are

registered when they are not, and polls may

still be more likely to interview politically

engaged people than disengaged. This is

particularly important to bear in mind when

comparing turnout estimates to 2017, as

there is contradictory evidence from a

number of different sources on the level of

turnout among different groups in that

election.

Furthermore, it should be noted that our

turnout estimates are expressed as a % of all

resident adults, not as a % of all those

registered (see here for more on our reasons

behind this). This means that these figures

are not comparable to the official turnout

figures normally used, and within our series

are only comparable to figures going back to

2015 (before then a different methodology

was used).

Turnout estimates should be treated with caution, but show a broadly similar

pattern to previous elections of higher turnout among older people and

graduates and lower among younger people, renters and BME voters.

31

Interpreting turnout estimates

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2016-eu-referendum


47%

55% 54%

63%66%

74%

18-24 25-34 34-44 45-54 55-64 65+

32

Turnout by Age

Estimated turnout among all adults %Base: 27,591 GB adults aged 18+, of whom 19,747 defined as likely voters according to our standard turnout filter (all 9/10 certain to vote, always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections,




Turnout by age over time

Estimated turnout among all adults %

38%

53% 54%

47%47%

54% 55% 55%58%

64%

56%54%

67%69%

66%63%

72%76%

71%

66%

74% 73%71%

74%

GE 2015 EU 2016 GE 2017 GE 2019

18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+





68%64%

59%53%

AB C1 C2 DE

34

Turnout by Social Class

Estimated turnout among all adults %Base: 27,591 GB adults aged 18+, of whom 19,747 defined as likely voters according to our standard turnout filter (all 9/10 certain to vote, always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections,




Turnout by Social Class over time


71%74%

69% 68%64%

68% 68%64%

56%

62% 60% 59%

51%

57%53% 53%

GE 2015 EU 2016 GE 2017 GE 2019

AB C1 C2 DE





59% 59%

69%


36

Turnout by Education






70%

64%

52% 51%


37

Turnout by Tenure






Turnout by Tenure over time


72%75%

70% 70%

64%

70% 68%64%

51%54% 52% 52%

45%

53% 53% 51%

GE 2015 EU 2016 GE 2017 GE 2019

Owner Mortgage Social renter Private renter





Turnout by ethnic group over time


63%68%

64% 63%

47% 47%

53% 52%

GE 2015 EU 2016 GE 2017 GE 2019

White All BME




Gideon Skinner

Research Director

[email protected]

Dylan Spielman

Research Executive

[email protected]

Keiran Pedley

Research Director

[email protected]

Ipsos MORIHow Britain Voted 2019

For more information

Documents

IPSOS MORI How the voters voted in the 2019 election › sites › default › files › ct › news › ...Data has been weighted to the actual election results by region and to the