15
31 March 2021 Investors and Analysts Call Annual Report 2020 Sascha Klaus, Chairman of the Board of Management

Investors and Analysts Call Report 2020 - Berlin Hyp

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    1

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Investors and Analysts Call Report 2020 - Berlin Hyp

31 March 2021

Investors and Analysts Call – Annual

Report 2020Sascha Klaus, Chairman of the Board of Management

Page 2: Investors and Analysts Call Report 2020 - Berlin Hyp

Key Figures & Business Development

2

50.3

44.0

51.2

45.2

52.9

52.3

9.1

11.8

16.918.3

11.6

6.8

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

ProfitabilityCost-Income-Ratio (%)

Return on Equity (%)

18.3 18.520,6

23.125.5

27.6

7.6 7.9 9.1 9.2 9.9 10.3

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Loan Portfolio Development, RWAin € bn

Loan Portfolio(incl. irrevocable loan commitments)

RWA

20 50 70 105 90 70

17.4

15.516.0 15.8

13.312.5

13.3 13.4

3.54.0

4.64.1

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Equity Allocation to the fund for general banking risks (€ mn)Total Capital Ratio (%)CET 1 -Ratio (%)Leverage Ratio (%)

5,4 6,0

8,1

6,1

7,3 6,7

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

New lending in € bn, incl. extension

Page 3: Investors and Analysts Call Report 2020 - Berlin Hyp

Statement of Profit and Loss

3

EUR mn 2020 2019 ∆ Difference

Interest / Commission income 333.1 327.5 5.6

Interest income 313.1 309.7 3.4

Commission income 20.0 17.8 2.2

General operating expenditure 173.2 172.3 0.9

Staff expenditure 82.0 92.4 -10.4

Other operating expenditure 70.1 67.5 2.6

of which expenditure for bank levy 13.4 12.0 1.4

Depreciation of tangible assets 21.1 12.4 8.7

Other operating earnings / expenditure -1.7 -1.6 -0.1

Operating income before risk provisioning 158.2 153.6 4.6

Risk provisioning -61.6 2.2 63.8

Operating income after risk provisioning 96.6 155.8 -59.2

Income of financial assets -2.8 -4.0 1.2

Allocation to the fund for general banking risks 70.0 90.0 -20.0

Other taxes 0.2 0.2 0.0

Profit before income tax and profit transfer 23.6 61.6 -38.0

Income tax 0.2 0.6 -0.4

Expenditure from profit transfer 23.4 61.0 -37.6

Net income of the year 0.0 0.0 0.0

Page 4: Investors and Analysts Call Report 2020 - Berlin Hyp

New Business 2020

4

49%

17%

15%

12%

6% 2%

GeographicalDirstribution

Germany - A Cities

Germany - B Cities

BeNeLux

Germany - Rest

Poland / CzechRepublic

France

40

34

9

8

9

Office

Residential

Retail

Logstics

Other

Type of Use

99

1

0

Rating classes 1-7

Rating classes 8-12

Rating classes 13-18

Rating classes

68%

19%

13%

Investor Types

Investors

Building contractors /Developers

Housing companies

%

%

Page 5: Investors and Analysts Call Report 2020 - Berlin Hyp

71%

12%

8%

6% 3%

Geographical distribution of

mortgage portfolio

Germany

BeNeLux

France

Poland / CzechRepublic

Others

95

4

1

Rating classes 1-7

Rating classes 8-12

Rating classes 13-18

Rating classes

Total Loan Portfolio

• High quality loan portfolio

• Real estate market has proven to be stable in the

crisis

• Close monitoring and stress testing of loan portfolio

• No defaults or impairments due to the corona crisis

in 2020

5

42

27

15

11

5

Office

Residential

Retail

Other

Logstics

Type of Use

%

%

Ø LTV54.3%

NPLs€ 141mn

0.51%

Page 6: Investors and Analysts Call Report 2020 - Berlin Hyp

Commercial Real Estate Market Overview: Germany (I)

Source: RIWIS / bulwiengesa, Berlin Hyp Research, CBRE; from 2017, BNPPRE, RCA

Full Year 2020

• In 2020, despite COVID-19, a very high transaction

volume of € 79bn was turned over on the commercial and

residential real estate market.

• The pandemic left visible traces on office properties,

which were traded significantly less. The investors’ focus

was on core properties in prime locations.

• The share of foreign investors and portfolio transactions

increased – a result of Germany's reputation as a safe

investment haven and of the growing risk aversion of

investors.

Forecast 2021

• The share of foreign investors and portfolio transactions

should further increase out of the above mentioned

reason.

• The € 70bn threshold of seems to be feasible in the

commercial and residential property investment market

again.

6

1517

2624

2832

40

28

910

18

13

1411

10

12

3

5

4

4

8 7

7

8

4

9

7

12

7 11

11

12

16

13

23

11

15

17

16

20

46.8

53.9

79.2

64.2

72.6

77.4

83.8

79.2

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Transaction Volume in Germany (in EUR bn)

Residential (<50units)

Other (Hotel)

Logistics

Retail

Office

Page 7: Investors and Analysts Call Report 2020 - Berlin Hyp

• Initial yields in all segments almost stable at previous

year's level

• Current widening of yield spreads due to declining 10-

year Bunds

• Overall price index continuous to rise. Main driver in

2020 were residential buildings, as the commercial real

estate index declined for the first time since 2009

• Corona pandemic amplifies structural change in the

retail sector and thus prices decreases

Source: Berlin Hyp Research, vdp

Source: Berlin Hyp Research, RIWIS/bulwiengesa, Macrobond

Commercial Real Estate Market Overview: Germany (II)

7

95

110

125

140

155

170

185

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

vdp Property Price Index2010 = 100

Office

Residential

Overall Index

Retail

-1

1

3

5

7

9

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Ø Top Yields in German A-Cities (Initial Net Yields, weighted average acc. to inhabitants, in %)

Logistics

Retail

Office

10y Bunds

Page 8: Investors and Analysts Call Report 2020 - Berlin Hyp

Mid-Term Expectations According to Asset Classes

Residential ± 0% Asset class has shown stability through the

crisis

Office - 10% Less liquidity in the market & larger supply due

to subsequent insolvencies and structural

changes in the work environment (home office)

Shopping –

Non Food- 15%

Clear drop due to longer lockdown, especially

shopping centers suffer from structural change

Shopping –

Food± 0% Stable. Local supermarkets remain attractive

Logistics ± 0%Online shopping and digitalization lead to a high

demand in logistics, lockdown measures

speeded the process up

Hotel -10% Further negative effects due to subsequent

insolvencies and further lockdown measures

Quo Vadis Commercial Real Estate?

8

Page 9: Investors and Analysts Call Report 2020 - Berlin Hyp

Deviation of the Market Value from the Mortgage

Lending Value by Asset Class

• The charts on the left side show by what

percentage the market value of Berlin Hyp’s

domestic and international portfolio exceeds the

mortgage lending value (MLV)

• The MLV is a conservative value of a property that

can be expected to be realised at any point during

the term of the loan, irrespective of temporary

fluctuations in the property value

• According to the Pfandbrief Act, only 60% of the

MLV are eligible for the cover pool

920%

40%

60%

80%

Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec 19 Dec 20

Abroad

Management

Office

Logistics

Retail

Residential

20%

40%

60%

80%

Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec 19 Dec 20

Germany

Management

Office

Residential

Logistics

Retail

Page 10: Investors and Analysts Call Report 2020 - Berlin Hyp

Berlin Hyp’s Ratings

RatingOutlook/

WatchRating

Outlook/

Watch

Mortgage Pfandbrief Aaa Stable - -

Senior Preferred Aa2 Stable AA- Negative

Senior Non-Preferred A2 - A+ Negative

Short Term P-1 - F1+ Stable

Adj. BCA / Viability a3 - bbb Stable

Last rating actions

April 2020: Fitch upgrades Berlin Hyp‘s senior preferred rating by one notch and confirms the rating for senior-

non-preferred. The status under criteria observation (UCO) is removed.

March 2020: As a result of the world wide coronavirus disruption Fitch changes the outlook on Berlin Hyp‘s IDR

from stable to negative which impacts both, senior preffered and senior non-preferred ratings. The revision of

the outlook follows a similar rating action on Berlin Hyp‘s ultimate parent Sparkassen-Finanzgruppe to negative.

March 2020: On 4 March Fitch places the rating for Berlin Hyp‘s senior preferred bonds under criteria

observation (UCO) reflecting a possible upgrade under Fitch‘s revised rating methodology for banks.

January 2020: Fitch confirms Berlin Hyp‘s ratings and maintains the stable outlook.

10

Page 11: Investors and Analysts Call Report 2020 - Berlin Hyp

1,389

2,1151,938

1,248 1,121

520

1,237

607 515 606 7391,034

50

775

565

138

831

105

500

545134

1,040

585405

638

255

30

500

142

515 58

30

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 >2031

Maturity Profile

Senior Preferred

Senior Non-Preferred

Public Pfandbrief

Mortgage Pfandbrief

Funding & Spread Development

0.01% / MS +6

Green PfandbriefDue 09/2030

EUR 500mn

August 2020

0.01% / MS +0

Mortgage PfandbriefDue 01/2031

EUR 500mn

January 2021

0.01% / MS +5

Green PfandbriefDue 07/2028

EUR 500mn

July 2020IFR Covered

Bond of the

Year 2019

0.01% / MS -1

Mortgage PfandbriefDue 02/2027

EUR 500mn

February 2020

0.01% / MS -3

Green PfandbriefDue 01/2028

EUR 500mn

March 2021

Funding 2020 2021

Mortgage

Pfandbriefe€ 1,612mn € 1,335mn

Senior

Unsecured€ 600mn € 390mn

Core Deal of

the Year

2019

• First FX-Funding in CHF

• First Green private placements

• € 303mn buy back of Pfandbriefe

• TLTRO participation

2020 Highlights

Spreads Berlin Hyp vs. Covered Bonds (bp/mid swaps); Source: LBBW Credit Research, iBoxx, 24 March 2021

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21

bp Covered Bonds

iBoxx € France Covered iBoxx € UK Covered

iBoxx € Sweden Covered iBoxx € Hypothekenpfandbriefe

iBoxx € Spain Covered iBoxx € Italy Covered

BHH Benchmarks

I-Spreads Berlin Hyp vs. Comparables (bp); Source: Commerzbank, 24 March 2021

0

50

100

150

200

250

Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20 Sep-20 Mar-21

bp Senior Unsecured

iBoxxprBNKsnE7y10y

Berlin Hyp Senior SNP Index (created out of iBoxx)

Berlin Hyp PS Index (created out of iBoxx)

Page 12: Investors and Analysts Call Report 2020 - Berlin Hyp

• Incentivising and financing of energy-efficiency related

refurbishments

Berlin Hyp’s Sustainability Agenda

Commitment to the Paris Climate

Agreement and the German Climate Path

1/3 of Portfolio

Green until 2025

Portfolio Transparency

until 2023New Sustainability Product:

Transformation Loan

• Goal: Climate neutral by 2050; including a 40% reduction in carbon

emissions between 2020 and 2030

• Systematic determination of energy values, carbon emissions

and climate risks

1.

3.

2.

4.

12

32%

02/2021

Talks with potential pilot customers

currently underway

25%

02/2021

• Green new business continues to grow in importance

New: Methododogy to calculate

carbon emissions for the entire loan

portfolio

m2

Page 13: Investors and Analysts Call Report 2020 - Berlin Hyp

Outlook 2021

13

Key Figures vs. previous year

New business

Interest income

Risk provisioning

Allocation to the fund for general banking

risks

Return on equity

CRE Market

• Real estate has proven to be an anchor of stability in times of

crisis

• Low yields will keep demand for residential real estate, core

office properties in A und B locations, supermarkets and

logistic properties at a high level

• Resilience and structural change in the office and shopping

segment as central topics of the future

Sustainability

• Sustainability agenda sets the scene for an even closer link

between ESG and core business

• EU Taxonomy will have major impact on Green Bonds and

the definition of green buildings. Final version to be expected

end of April

• Inaugural publication of results of new carbon footprint

assessment methodology on portfolio level in near future

2021 To DoThereof

Benchmark

Mortgage

Pfandbriefe€ 1,300mn € 1,000mn

Senior

Unsecured€ 800mn € 500mn

Funding

Page 14: Investors and Analysts Call Report 2020 - Berlin Hyp

Your Contacts at Berlin Hyp

14

You will find further information on Berlin Hypif you visit our website www.berlinhyp.de:

• Ratings• Green Bonds

• Framework• Reportings

• Financial Reportings• Base Prospectus / Final Terms• §28 Pfandbrief Act / HTT• Euro Commercial Paper Programme • Awards

Bodo Winkler-VitiHead ofFunding & Investor Relations

Tel.: +49 30 2599 [email protected]

Felix ZillmannFunding & Investor Relations

Tel.: +49 30 2599 [email protected]

Page 15: Investors and Analysts Call Report 2020 - Berlin Hyp

Disclaimer

This presentation was produced by Berlin Hyp AG (hereinafter “Berlin Hyp”) for information purposes only. It is not investment advice.

The prior consent of Berlin Hyp is required for the copying of information or data, in particular for the use of texts, parts of text or picture

material. To the best of our knowledge, the facts and information contained in this presentation are correct at the time of production and

are subject to change in future. Neither Berlin Hyp nor members of its Board of Management, management staff, employees, advisors or

other persons furnish any warranty or guarantee, explicit or implied, in relation to the correctness or completeness of the information

contained in this presentation. All liability by Berlin Hyp, members of its Board of Management, management staff, employees, advisors

or other persons for losses incurred, directly or indirectly, in whatever way by the use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise in

connection therewith is excluded.

Every reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the facts contained in this presentation are correct at the time they were collected,

and that the views expressed are fair and reasonable. However, this document contains selected information and is merely an

introduction to and overview of the business activities of Berlin Hyp. Opinions expressed in this document can change at any time.

Neither Berlin Hyp nor any other person is obliged to correct, update or keep updated the information contained herein, or inform you

about this. A significant proportion of the information contained in this document, including market data and information about trends, is

based on estimates or expectations of Berlin Hyp and there is no guarantee that these estimates or expectations will be proved correct

in future.

This presentation may contain future-oriented statements which reflect our present view with regard to future developments. These

statements can be identified as such by words like “expectation” or “target” or “forecast” and similar expressions, or by their context.

These statements are made on the basis of current knowledge and current assumptions in each case at the time they are made. They

harbour risks and uncertainties including but not limited to changes in interest rates or exchange rates. If these risks or uncertainties

materialise, or if the knowledge or assumptions forming the basis of our future-oriented statements prove incorrect, actual future results,

performance or events in the future could differ from those described in these statements. There is no obligation to update future-

oriented statements or to inform you about this.

This document does not constitute an offer for the sale of securities. Securities of Berlin Hyp may not be offered or sold in the United

States if they are not registered there or are not exempt from the obligation of registration according to the U.S. Securities Act 1993 in its

current applicable version.

15