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ImplementationImplementationof theof the
Water Framework DirectiveWater Framework Directive
- Uncertainty issues - - Uncertainty issues -
Michiel Blind, RWS-RIZA
Three key messagesThree key messages
Including uncertainty is recommended, even required by the Water Framework Directive– What is stated in the legal text and supporting documents?
Uncertainty is a fact of (WFD) life– Several examples of uncertainties at various stages of the
implementation
HarmoniRiB’s products support integrated uncertainty assessment – Few examples of HarmoniRiB case studies
3
Message # 1Message # 1
Including uncertainty is recommended, even required by the Water Framework Directive
Based on:
Blind and de Blois within HarmoniRiB
Siegel within HarmoniRiB
WFD legal documentWFD legal document
section 1.3: (iv) [reference network] The network shall contain a sufficient number of sites of high status to provide a sufficient level of confidence about the values for the reference conditions, given the variability in the values of the quality elements corresponding to high ecological status for that surface water body type and the modelling techniques which are to be applied under paragraph (v).
(Research) Questions:– What is a sufficient level of confidence?– … and how to determine than the sufficient number of
sites?– Who determines this?
WFD legal documentWFD legal document
section 1.3: (v) Type-specific biological reference conditions based on modelling may be derived using either predictive models or hindcasting methods. The methods […] shall provide a sufficient level of confidence about the values for the reference conditions […]
(Research) Questions:– What is a sufficient level of confidence?– Who determines this?
CIS guidelinesCIS guidelines You will need to complete the first analyses, using appropriate
estimates for pressures and impacts but you should be aware, and take account, of the uncertainties in the environmental conditions […] (IMPRESS)
In brief, uncertainties in classification need to explicitly address the question of “what is the probability that a site is assigned to the wrong class?” (RefCond)
“Uncertainty on costs, effectiveness and time-lagged effects of measures needs to be dealt with throughout the economic analysis process, […]” (WATECO)
(Research) Questions:– Which uncertainties need to be included? – How do you determine uncertainties and probabilities?– Which costs need to be included?
CIS GuidelinesCIS Guidelines
“… the required positional accuracy for the reporting is set to a minimum of 1000 meters […] in the short-term, while at the same time it is strongly recommended to strive for a positional accuracy of 125 meters […] in the long-term.“ (GIS)
“compliance with good groundwater chemical status shall be demonstrated by the upper confidence limit of the arithmetic mean (AM) with a confidence level of 1-alpha of 95 %” (GWD)
CIS GuidelinesCIS Guidelines
Look out! Risk assessment is one of the main tool of the river basin planning process (Proclan)
ConclusionsConclusions Including uncertainty is recommended, even Including uncertainty is recommended, even
required by the Water Framework Directiverequired by the Water Framework Directive
WFD legal text requires dealing with uncertainties & risks
CIS guidance documents recommend dealing with uncertainty, risk and models
However: – “Given our current WFD ambition we do not need al these
details, given that we exactly know what is required” (oral communication with a water manager)
– Uncertainty about EC’s position regarding enforcing these requirements (political uncertainty)
10
Message # 2Message # 2
Uncertainty is a fact of (WFD) life
Based on:
Brouwer, R., Uncertainties in the economic analysis of the European Water Framework Directive, HarmoniRiB, 2005
Role of economics in the WFD cycleRole of economics in the WFD cycle(WATECO, 2002)(WATECO, 2002)
Uncertainty in the basin characterisationUncertainty in the basin characterisationReallocating Gross Regional ProductReallocating Gross Regional Product
Mismatch between administrative boundaries
Uncertainty due to allocation
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
Ems Scheldt Meuse Rhine-Central
Rhine-East
Rhine-North
Rhine-West
Basin (district)
Gro
ss
re
gio
na
l pro
du
ct
NAMWARiB
Basin area size
Corop area size
Uncertainty allocating emissions Uncertainty allocating emissions to economic sectorsto economic sectors
Example sources from the national emission registration
– Recreational shipping– Traffic– Atmospheric depositions
Economic sectors
– Agriculture– Industry– Service
Baseline and future scenario’sBaseline and future scenario’s(trends in supply and demand)(trends in supply and demand)
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
1000
in
hab
itan
tsRegional prediction Trend from the past
Population growth Scheldt
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
1000
ha
Regional prediction Trend from the past
Arable land Scheldt
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Pro
du
ctio
n (
bln
€)
CPB prediction Trends from the past
Chemical industry Scheldt
Scenario’s: Other uncertaintiesScenario’s: Other uncertainties
Technological uncertainties– What will tomorrow bring? – How fast will technology be taken up?
Political uncertainties– What is the prevailing policy?– What changes if times change to the better or the worse?
Uncertainty in cost effective programmes of measuresUncertainty in cost effective programmes of measures
uncertainty in cause - effectuncertainty in cause - effect
Manure discharge Overflow Influent Effluent
Untreated discharge
Su
rface water
Waste Water
Treatment Plant
Municipal Sewerage System
Industry
Bathers
Boats
Marinas
Agriculture
Households
Horses
Birds
Runoff from promenade
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Untre
ated
sewer
age
CSO w
ithout
mea
sure
s
CSO w
ith m
easu
res
WW
TP
Man
ure fr
om fa
rm
Man
ure fr
om la
nd
Man
ure fr
om c
attle
drin
king
Mar
inas
Recre
atio
nal b
oats
Comm
ercia
l ship
s
Pets o
n sit
e
Bathe
rs
Bird co
lonies
Inte
rnatio
nal riv
ers
Not id
entifi
ed
Estimated relative contribution of pollution source to overall bacteriological bathing water contamination
Ignorance?
Not identified = unknown…
Uncertainty in cost effectiveness of Uncertainty in cost effectiveness of individual measuresindividual measures
Uncertainty in dose-effect relationships Uncertainty in costs Social uncertainty (effects on different actors, acceptance,
behaviour) Political uncertainty
– Undesired political side-effects– Time needed for implementation
Uncertainty in cost effectiveness of Uncertainty in cost effectiveness of individual measuresindividual measures
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14R
edu
ctio
n c
olo
ny
form
ing
un
its
(cfu
) /
€
Without Uncertainty With Uncertainty
Message # 2Message # 2Uncertainty is a fact of (WFD) lifeUncertainty is a fact of (WFD) life
Demonstrated– Spatial reallocation problems– Sectoral allocation problems– Scenario’s– Cause-effect– Cost effectiveness
Other– Political uncertainty, e.g. policy choices on cost recovery– Planning process uncertainties, e.g. involvement of stakeholders– Social / behavioural uncertainty – Raw data uncertainty– Integrated uncertainty– …
20
Message # 3Message # 3
HarmoniRiB’s products support integrated uncertainty assessment
HarmoniRiB’s key productsHarmoniRiB’s key products
Comprehensive guidelines regarding assessment of data uncertainty
Comprehensive software to assess and work with data uncertainties
A database that can hold uncertainties Various methodological documents:
– Uncertainty & models– Uncertainty in scaling– Framing the decision making problem
8 case studies of integrated uncertainty assessment
Case study example - GeropotamouCase study example - Geropotamou
Some pictures
Geropotamou past and futureGeropotamou past and future
Business as usual scenarioBusiness as usual scenario
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Oct-77
Oct-78
Oct-79
Oct-80
Oct-81
Oct-82
Oct-83
Oct-84
Oct-85
Oct-86
Oct-87
Oct-88
Oct-89
Oct-90
Oct-91
Oct-92
Oct-93
Oct-94
Oct-95
Oct-96
Oct-97
Oct-98
Oct-99
Oct-00
Oct-01
Time (months)
Ele
vati
on A
bove
sea
leve
l (m
)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Pre
cipit
atio
n (
mm
)
Uncertainty in Groundwater level
Precipitation (mm)
Ground elevation (m)
Well Observations (m)
Simulated Groundwater level (m)
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Sep-02
Mar-03
Sep-03
Mar-04
Sep-04
Mar-05
Sep-05
Mar-06
Sep-06
Mar-07
Sep-07
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Mar-10
Sep-10
Mar-11
Sep-11
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Time (months)
Ele
vati
on a
sl (
m)
01002003004005006007008009001000
Prec
ipita
tion
(mm
)
CS 2 Uncertainty CS 1 Uncertainty Precipitation (mm) Groundwater level observations (m) Ground elevation (m)
Regge effects for different types of Regge effects for different types of hydrological yearshydrological years
N summer averaged concentration for decrease of fertilisation and WWTP discharges
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
N c
on
cen
trat
ion
(m
g/l
)
1999 2015 2031
Average year Dry year Wet year
1997 2013 1993 19962029 2009 2025 2012 2028
N summer averaged concentration for decrease of fertilisation and WWTP discharges
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
N c
on
cen
trat
ion
(m
g/l
)
1999 2015 2031
Average year Dry year Wet year
1997 2013 1993 19962029 2009 2025 2012 2028
N summer averaged concentration for reduction of fertilisation and WWTP discharges
Regge: 2015 resultsRegge: 2015 results
Status Costs Further criteria Criteria
Alternative
Nitrate conc. (mg/l)
Phosphate conc. (mg/l)
Costs (million€)
Side effects
Public support
Acceptance Brussels
1. Baseline scenario 3.08-4.51 0.44-0.59 0 0 0 -- 2. Reduction of fertilization
2.52-2.86 0.41-0.47 175-2,500 -/-- -- -
3. Increase of storage cap.
3.07-4.26 0.44-0.59 62-89 -/+ -/0 --/-
4. Reduction of WWTP discharges
2.24-3.64 0.30-0.45 70-231 0 -/+ -/0
5. Reduction of fertilization and WWTP discharges
1.69-2.02 0.26-0.32 245-2,500 --/- --/- 0/-
6. Combination of all measures
1.72-1.86 0.27-0.33 307-2,500 --/+ --/- 0/-
Important: Study purpose is proof of concept / testing
26
Message # 3Message # 3 HarmoniRiB’s products support HarmoniRiB’s products support
integrated uncertainty assessmentintegrated uncertainty assessment
Examples provided all used:
Uncertainty guidance
Data uncertainty engine
HarmoniRiB database
Relate to WFD issues
…
Concluding remarksConcluding remarks
Three key messages– Including uncertainty is recommended, even
required by the Water Framework Directive– Uncertainty is a fact of (WFD) life– HarmoniRiB’s products support integrated
uncertainty assessment
The reality…
28
Thank youThank you