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8/3/2019 IDATE Digiworld Summit 2011
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NextGen Networks 2 - LTEWhat’s changing mobile IP?
16 November 2011 - Frédéric [email protected]
8/3/2019 IDATE Digiworld Summit 2011
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Content► Introduction
► Mobile connectivity & smartphones
► LTE devices
► LTE networks status & tariffing
► LTE spectrum: valuation and fragmentation risks
► Conclusions
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3
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Introduction
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Mobile status: Europe vs. USA
Mobile turnover +1% (2010/2009)-3% (2Q11/2Q10)
+5,2% (2010/2009)+6% (2Q11/2Q10)
Data revenues share (end-2010) 26.2%29-32% (BoA)
33.2%37% (BoA)
Mobile CAPEX Almost flat +18% (2Q11/2Q10)
LTE launch date/ pop. covered End 2009 (Sweden)
Limited launch except inGermany
End 2010
VZW: 110 M pop (05/2011)66% pop mid-2012
Mobile ARPU (end-2010) $22.5 $50 (-0.2% y-to-y)
Mobile penetration (end-2010) 128%
Fragmented markets
98.5%
4 carriers have 93% of thesubscribers
Smartphone penetration (end-2010) Vodafone: 19% Verizon: 32%
Source: IDATE & BoA
► The USA are clearly leading LTE deployments with massive coverage and heavy investments
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Mobile status: GDP and mobile revenues
► Economic slowdown effect on wireless revenues
Source: BoA
► The 2008-2009 slowdown had a significant impact on wireless revenues in Europe
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Mobile traffic increase
Mobile traffic usage is getting close to DSL Mobile data consumption trends
Teliasonera Sweden: 14 - 15 GB
Yota Russia: 13 GB*Clearwire : 7 GB
CSL HK : 6 GB
SK Telecom : 7 GB
Average traffic consumption per user observedin 2010
Source: IDATE from operators
Mobile broadband traffic mimics the kind of traffic seen on fixed broadband networks
► Mobile users are running similar applications as on fixed networks: IM, Skype voice call, socialNetworking, video streaming…
Facebook increased its mobile traffic consumption by 200% during the 1H2010 while Twittergrew by 310% in the meantime (Source: Allot)
Video represents 50% of the world's mobile traffic in 2010
► Moving from traditional voice in favor of data-centric, bandwidth-intensive applications
*One customer used 2 Terabytes of data in a single month (2010)
1 MB
1-2GB
1 mn of MP3Monthly capfor many 3Gsubscriptions
7 GB
Monthly usageon Clearwire’s
network
200MB
2010 traffic figures
(per broadband subscription - not at scale)
Monthly usageon DSL
networks
7-15GB
Firtst monthlycap for AT&T
6.6 MB per day 33 to 66 MB per day 233 to 500 MB per day 233 MB per day
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Mobile traffic forecasts 2010-2020
► Total worldwide mobile traffic will reach more than 127 EB in 2020, representing an 33 fold increasecompared with 2010 figure.
► We anticipate that the total voice and data traffic will reach 45 EBytes in 2015 compared to less than2 EBytes in 2009. The bulk of the traffic will be video traffic.
Network capacity units:
Source: IDATE for UMTS Forum
-
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
2010 2015 2020
Y e
a r l y
t r a f f i c
i n
E B
Europe
Americas
Asia
Rest of the world
World
Total mobile traffic (EB per year)
Note: mobile traffic on licensed spectrum only (Wi-Fi excluded)
Total mobile traffic
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Mobile connectivity & smartphones
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Mobile Internet usage: already here, and geared for growth
2010: 21.2% mobile Internet penetration,or 1.1 billion subscriptions worldwide
2015: 37.0% mobile Internet penetration,or 2.67 billion subscriptions worldwide
►Leading region: Asia Pacific
● 27.0% penetration rate, or 691M users
● largely thanks to Japan, who has close to
80% mobile Internet penetration
►North America: 26.0% penetration rate
►EU27: 17.9% penetration rate
Mobile Internet penetration, 2008-2010 Mobile Internet penetration, 2011-2015 forecasts
►North America to overtake Asia Pacific by2015
● North America will climb to 43.6% penetration
● Asia Pacific to grow to 39.1% penetration
►EU27 will remain behind these two regions,but will enjoy healthy growth to 35.1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2008 2009 2010
France Germany Italy Spain UK
USA Japan South Korea Europe World
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
World Europe France Germany Italy
Spain UK USA Japan South Korea
Source: IDATE Source: IDATE
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Mobile connectivity devices: not just about smartphonesConnectivity devices provide the better value
compared to smartphones…
… and overall shipments will maintain a
steady growth
►ARPU for connectivity devices can be morethan double that of smartphones
● Particularly strong with business use
● Also means they consume more traffic
►Tariffs for users are also more favourable
● Per GB price cheaper for connectivity devices
● Smartphone data tariffs are still unstable
Price per GB comparison between devices, UK
Shipment and breakdown of mobile connectivity devices, 2011-2015(thousands)
►By around 2013, embedded connectivitydevices will out-ship external ones
● Decreasing module prices, user friendliness
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Smartphone iPad Dongles Netbooks/laptops
Note: the tariff with the best per GB value is shown in this figure
Source: IDATE Source: IDATE
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Smartphone shipment penetration forecast
Advanced countries: US, EU5 and Japan Emerging countries: BRIC
► USA: Currently leads, and will continue to leadsmartphones shipment penetration
► EU5: Whilst behind the US, will show steadygrowth higher than worldwide penetration
► Japan: Starts as laggard, but expected tobecome one of the leaders in next few years
● Smartphone shipment penetration was lower than
that of the world up to 2010, but by end 2011,
expected to be one of the leaders
% of smartphone shipments, 2010 - 2015
Source: IDATE Source: IDATE
% of smartphone shipments, 2010 - 2015
► Brazil: Roughly in line with worldwidepenetration
► China: Whilst they have a massive population,smartphone penetration expected to remainrelatively low for now
► Russia: Expected to show steady growth, a littlebehind China
► India: Expected to show the least and slowestgrowth of penetration
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
World EU5 USA Japan
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
World Brazil Russia India China
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Smartphone shipment forecastThe heavyweights: China, US, EU5 Remaining BRIC countries and Japan
►2011: US leads number of smartphonesshipped, followed by the EU5 and then China
►2013: Whilst US continues to lead, Chinacatches up with EU5
►2015: China to overtake the US to becomethe nation to ship the most smartphones
►China, due to its massive population, will
ship the most smartphones despite theirlower penetration rates
Total number of smartphone shipments, 2011 - 2015
Source: IDATE Source: IDATE
Total number of smartphone shipments, 2011 - 2015
►Compared to China, the other BRICcountries have much smaller totalshipments
►Japan, despite its high smartphonepenetration rate, remains low in terms oftotal shipment numbers due to the countryitself being much smaller. They are,however, ahead than any of the EU5 nationson an individual basis.
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
China USA EU5
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Japan Brazil Russia India
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LTE devices
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LTE devices: positioning and strategies of main players
LTE devices roadmap
Already close to 200 LTEdevices available
Source: IDATE
► For chipset manufacturers, it will be seen that, in order to be able to succeed, the increased capabilities of mobile devicesincreasingly require competencies in various areas not limited to baseband. In our judgement, this will see Qualcomm,NVIDIA and ST-Ericsson establishing themselves as Tier 1 players in this market
► For mobile device manufacturers, the challenges will be to have the best possible integration of 4G into existing devices,with, of course, a series of challenges: technical, cost, IPR (Intellectual Property Rights) and Time To Market. Each of thedevice manufacturers has so far adopted different strategies. Some, such as Apple, have adopted a cautious approach,waiting for the technology to mature for mass market adoption. On the other hand, device vendors such as HTC orSamsung and LG have entered the market very early in an attempt to differentiate themselves and increase market share.
In the long term, however, we do not see early LTE adoption into devices as an entry barrier for newcomers
LTE: a game-changer in the mobile industry?
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Review of LTE devices availability
Early LTE handsets:Samsung Craft and
Galaxy Indulge
Voice supported on 3G networks
HTC Thunderbolt, Verizon, firstLTE Smartphone
Dongles and personal hot-spot devices prove to be popular
Tablets are an important part of the device offer Routers for rural areas (Germany, Verizon)
Novatel MiFi 4510L mobile hotspot
Dongles & mobile hot-spots
Tablets
Mobile handsets: early developments
Other connected devices
Motorola Xoom tablet
ZyXEL LTE fixed router
Sierra Wireless M2M LTE gateway
Samsung’s first LTE dongle
AT&T’s first mobile hotspot and dongle
AT&T’s first smartphones
Samsung’s GalaxyTab 10.1
►30 Modules, 11 Tablets, 10 Notebooks, 2 PC Cards, 27 Smartphones, 70 Routers, 47 Dongles - Source: GSA 11/2011
►700 MHz: 106, 800 MHz: 42, 1800 MHz: 41, 2600 MHz: 52, 800/1800/2600 MHz: 32, AWS: 35
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Review of LTE devices availability
USB dongles and mobile hotspots
Manufacturer Device name Chipset used Modes Bands Launch date Epicom Unknown Qualcomm Unknown Unknown Q3 2011 Huawei Huawei Mobile WiFi E589 Qualcomm MDM 9200 LTE/HSPA/GSM 2600, 2100, 1800, 900 MHz Q3 2011 Novatel Novatel MiFi 4510L Qualcomm MDM 9600 LTE/CDMA EVDO/1x RTT 700 MHz for LTE Q1 2011 Samsung Samsung SCH-LC11 LTE/CDMA EVDO/1x RTT 700 MHz for LTE March 2011
Source: IDATE
Novatel MiFi 4510L mobile hotspot
Thanks to more mature chipsets being available commercially and more LTE networks being launched worldwide, thedevice market has evolved faster than expected
The first multi-mode dongles have been released
The basic USB dongles were naturally followed by MiFi devices
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Review of LTE devices availability
Source: IDATE
Early LTE handsets: Samsung Craft andGalaxy Indulge
The early launch of the first LTE handset (Samsung Craft) on the USmarket (in 2010) has come sooner than expected
HTC was the first mobile device manufacturer to launch an LTE-poweredsmartphone, the Thunderbolt, for the Verizon network
The table below is a summary of announced LTE handsets. Most of themare for the Verizon Wireless Band 13 (700 MHz) LTE network, and arepowered by a Qualcomm chipset.
HTC Thunderbolt, Verizon, first LTESmartphone
Manufacturer Device name Specifications HTC Thunderbolt 1 GHz Snapdragon processor / MDM 9600 / Android 2.2 / 4.3" capacitive screen / 8 GB / 8 MP camera + rear-facing camera / DLNA support
LG Revolution 1 GHz Snapdragon processor / MDM 9600 / Android 2.2 / 4.3" capacitive screen / 16 GB / 5 MP camera + rear-facing camera / HDMI / DLNA support
Motorola Droid Bionic 4G Dual core 1.2 GHz Cortex A9 processor / MDM 9600 (*) / Android /4.3" capacitive screen / 16 GB / 8 MP camera + rear-facing camera / HDMI / DLNA support
Samsung
Craft Feature phone / Samsung CMC 2200 + Via Telecom / Proprietary OS / 165 MB internal memory + SD memory card / 3 MP camera
Galaxy Indulge 1 GHz Hummingbird Samsung processor / Android 2.2 / 3.5” Capacitative screen / micro SD slot / 3.2 MP camera + 1.3 Mp rear facing camera /
Stealth 4G 1 GHz Hummingbird (Cortex A8) processor / MDM 9600 / Android 2.2 / 4.3" capacitive screen / 16 GB / 8 MP camera + rear-facing camera / HDMI / DLNA
support
Mobile handsets: early developments
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Review of LTE devices availability
Source: IDATE
Motorola Xoom tablet
Manufacturer Device name Specifications Launch date Comments Motorola Xoom Nvidia Tegra 2 Dual core Cortex A9 1 GHz processor /
MDM 9600 (*) / Android 3.0 / 10.1" capacitive screen / 32
GB + SD card / 5 MP camera + 2 MP rear camera / HDMI /
725g
Q3 2011 First launched with 3G only, it wil l be hardware-upgraded to LTE in Q2 2011.
SD Card and Adobe Flash support not functional when launched but
expected to come with software upgrade.
RIM Playbook 1 GHz Dual core Coretex A9 processor / QNX / 7"capacitive screen / 16 - 32 - 64 GB / 5 MP camera + 3MP
rear-facing camera / HDMI / 400g 2nd half of 2011 Will come first in a WiMAX edition for Sprint, and later in an LTE version,
probably for Verizon. Will support Android application through a porting of the
Android Dalvik Java virtual machine.
Samsung Galaxy Tab 4G 1.2 GHz Coretex A8 Hummingbird processor / Android 2.2 /
7" capacitive screen / 2 GB / 5 MP camera + 1.3 MP rear-
facing camera / DLNA / 400g end of Q2 2011 (*) Samsung is constantly updating its specs depending on competitors. It is
thus still unclear if the version finally released will have these characteristics
or not. Android 2.2 is, among others, not the most app ropriate OS for tablets.
ZTE - Light LTE 1.2 Ghz undefined processor / Android 3.0 / 10 ”
Capacitative screen / 4/8/16/32 GB / 5 MP camera + 1.3 MP
rear facing camera - Planned for Q1 2012 It is not clear if V11 LTE tablet and Light LTE tanlets are the same devices.
The baseband will support FDD LTE / HSPA / WCDMA / Edge
The tablet segment is bristling to establish itself on the mobile device marketquickly, especially as mobile device manufacturers do not want to let Applegrab the whole of the pie
Motorola was the first to announce an LTE-based version of its Xoom tabletin January 2011
Below is a summary of announced and expected LTE tablets on the market:
Tablets: LTE as differentiating advantage?
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Review of LTE devices availability
Source: IDATE
Sierra Wireless M2M LTE gateway
Company Name of the product Kind of product Specifications
Sierra Wireless Airlink GX440 M2M gateway Band 13 (700 Mhz), 3G gateway upgradable to 4G to ease transition
Cinterion NA NA Reportedly working on it
As far as M2M communication modules and gateways are concerned, somecompanies have already announced product availability.
This is notably the case of Cinterio and, more recently, Sierra Wireless but thecase for such use has not yet been proved.
M2M usages are today rather narrowband usages and sensitivity to prices is veryhigh, meaning that M2M LTE devices are not yet particularly relevant.
However, remote video surveillance is seen already as a worthy usage for LTEM2M.
Besides, as very few 3G M2M modules are today available, companies may wellchose to switch directly from GPRS / Edge module to 4G modules, so as to
maximise the communication module life cycle. Below is a summary of availableLTE M2M products:
Machine to Machine communication modules
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Review of LTE devices availability
Source: IDATE
ZyXEL LTE fixed router
Fixed routers and / or gateways: as for Fixed (Ultra) BroadbandWireless Access, some companies have been devising LTE homegateways to serve grey areas in areas of low population density. Thismarket could be driven by countries such as Germany where MNOsare obliged by their license to deploy broadband in such areas.
eReaders are, broadly speaking, very specialised tablets with adaptedhardware and electronic ink display enabling long-lasting batteriesand increased comfort for reading. We do not see, however, thebusiness case for LTE support in these devices, with their verycompetitive prices. We believe more eReader manufacturers willeither enter the tablet market with a device proposition or adapt their
content distribution platform to be available on smartphone
Mobile gaming devices: some companies – Sony Ericsson is onesuch – are now transforming their smartphones into gaming devicesrather than adding connectivity to existing gaming devices
Kindle store on iPad and Samsung Galaxy Tab
Sony Ericsson Xperia Play
Other LTE devices
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LTE networks status & tariffing
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LTE commercial services
The LTE ecosystem is growing from strength to strength with more than 200 operators already having
announced their commitment to LTE technology
Source: IDATE – October 2011
Operator Country Date Frequency band AT&T USA 09/2011 700 MHz A1 (Telekom Austria) Austria 11/2010 2.6 GHz Aero2 Poland 09/2010 1800 MHz Bell Mobility Canada 09/2011 1.7/2.1 GHz (AWS) CSL Hong-Kong 11/2010 1800 MHz & 2.6 GHz DoCoMo Japan 12/2010 2.1 GHz Elisa Finland 12/2010 2.6 GHz EMT Estonia 12/2010 2.6 GHz LG U+ South Korea 07/2011 2.1 GHz LMT Latvia 05/2011 1800 MHz M1 Singapore 06/2011 1.8 GHz and 2.6 GHz MetroPCS USA 09/2010 1.7/2.1 GHz (AWS) MTS Uzbekistan 08/2010 2.6 GHz Mobily Saudi Arabia 09/2011 2.6 GHz Net4Mobility – Telenor & Tele2 Sweden 11/2010 2.6 GHz O2 Germany 07/2011 800 MHz
Operator Country Date Frequency band Omnitel Lithuania 04/2011 2.6 GHz Rogers Wireless Canada 07/2011 1.7/2.1 GHz (AWS) SK Telecom South Korea 07/2011 2.1 GHz Smart Communications Philippines 04/2011 2.6 GHz STC Saudi Arabia 09/2011 2.6 GHz T-Mobile Germany 04/2011 800 MHz TeliaSonera Denmark 12/2010 2.6 GHz TeliaSonera Finland 05/2010 2.6 GHz TeliaSonera Norway 12/2009 2.6 GHz TeliaSonera Sweden 12/2009 2.6 GHz UCell Uzbekistan 08/2010 2.6 GHz Verizon Wireless USA 11/2010 700 MHz Vodafone Germany 12/2010 800 MHz Zain Saudi Arabia 09/2011 2.6 GHz
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LTE deployment roadmapGeographical mapping of early LTE commercial deployment
Major operators LTE commercial deployment schedule
Source: IDATE
Canada and USA
Europe
Asia
3GPP WCDMA
Operators
TD- SCDMA
3GPP2
CDMA
operators
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
In September 2011, 30 operators hadlaunched LTE service and at least 16 more areexpected during the second half of the year
Major deployment for Verizon Wireless: 110 Mpop covered at end-2010 and 160 M at mid-2011 (nationwide by 2013)
Limited coverage for European operatorsexcept Germany
LTE subscribers figures Sept. 2011
Verizon Wireless: around 3million
DoCoMo: 390,000 Xi (LTE)
subscriptions, with a full-year
target of 1.3 million
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Enablers of mobile traffic and tariffing trends
Source: IDATE
►Towards more differentiation (device type, speed…), more QoS management
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LTE tariffingTeliaSonera (Sweden) - 2009
► EUR 62 per month including the usage of 30 GB data per month
► Additional data volume costs € 8.7 per 2GB and € 12.9 for 5GB
MetroPCS (USA) - 2010
► The $55 plan includes unlimited voice, texting and LTE data access
► LTE-capable Samsung Craft for $299
A1 Telekom (Austria) - 2010
► Plans LTE commercial service in Vienna in the 2.6 GHz band
► 30 GB of data a month at speeds of up to 150 Mbps for €90 per month
Vodafone (Germany) - 2011
► 7.2 Mbps downstream for €39.99 per month with a cap of 10 GB
► For a downlink speed of 50 Mbps and 30 GB cap, the monthly cost is
€ 69.99
Source: IDATE
Plan Monthly fee Monthly data
Allowance
Overage fee
4G mobile broadband plans (for 4G USB modems) USD 50 5 GB USD 10 per 1 GB
USD 80 10 GB USD 10 per 1 GB
Mobile broadband connect and 3G mobile hotspots
(for smartphones and feature phones)
USD 20 2 GB USD 20 per 1 GB
Mobile broadband plans (tablets, netbooks) USD 20 1 GB USD 20 per 1 GB
USD 35 3 GB USD 10 per 1 GB
USD 50 5 GB USD 10 per 1 GB
USD 80 10 GB USD 10 per 1 GB
Name and scope of rate plan Speed/‘Surfzone’
hotspot
speed USB-modem(for contract
of 18 months)
Datavolume
Monthly tariff/rate with
discount 1 Mellan 4G (‘Intermediate 4G’) 5-10
Mbit/s
<22 Mbit/s Included 10 GB SEK 299
SEK 249
Stor 4G (‘Grand 4G’) – Promotion
price
10-20
Mbit/s
<22 Mbit/s Included 20 GB SEK 349 for
18 months2/
SEK 299 for
18 months3 Total 4G – Promotion price 10-80
Mbit/s
<22 Mbit/s Included 30 GB SEK 349 for
six months4
SEK 249 for
6 months5
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The LTE wholesale model
Source: IDATE
Sells MobileWiMAXcapacity
Will sell LTEcapacity
Provides cellssites and
helps buildingtheterrstrial
LTE network
Build a common GSM and LTE
network (Sweden)
Will sell LTE
capacity to
MVNOs anddistributors Sells LTEcapacity
Sharingagreement?
Sells LTEcapacity?
Builds a wholesale LTE network inthe 2.3 GHz band for rural areas
Builds a wholesale LTE network in
the 1800 MHz band (Poland)
Plans to build a wholesale LTEnetwork in the S-band (USA)
Many actors using newspectrum (satellite L-
Band, S-band, 2.3GHz…)
Consolidation likely inthe USA
Difficulties in Russia
Sharing and wholesale
model can becombined
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LTE subscribers forecasts
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
Asia-Pacific 1,066 8,383 29,260 70,402 133,310
Western Europe 1,103 4,292 14,946 44,607 85,246
Central & Eastern Europe 68 1,547 3,600 11,592 21,879
North America 11,635 32,588 58,323 85,535 118,955
Latin America 247 1,027 3,402 11,128
Africa-Middle East 223 1,469 5,298 8,493
Total 13 872 47,280 108,624 220,836 379,012
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: IDATE (June 2011)
► By the end of 2015, weforecast that overall there willbe more than 379 million LTEsubscribers (worldwide).
► We forecast 13.8 million LTEsubscribers at the end of 2011with the USA representing thebulk of this figure with11.6 million subscribers.
► At the end of 2015, Asia-Pacific should represent35.2% of the total, North
America 31.4% and WesternEurope 22.5%.
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LTE spectrum: valuation &
fragmentation risks
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LTE spectrum
► Regional harmonisation likely to be the first step
Americas: DD (700 MHz), AWS, 2.6 GHz
Europe: DD (800 MHz), 1800 MHz, 2.6 GHz
Asia Pac: 2.3 GHz, 2.6 GHz
► In the USA, LightSquared will use specific bands (1.4-1.6
GHz…)
► Roaming is not a priority today
Source: IDATE
Main LTE frequency bandsFragmentation is here Countries Existing frequency bands New frequency bands
Europe 900 MHz
1800 MHz
2.1 GHz
800 MHz (790-862 MHz – Digital Dividend)
2.6 GHz
USA 850 MHz
1.7/2.1 GHz (AWS)
1900 MHz (PCS)
2.6 GHz
700 MHz (698-806 MHz)
1.4-1.6 GHz (LightSquared)
S-band (Dish)?
South America 1.7/2.1 GHz (AWS)
1800 MHz
1900 MHz (PCS)
700 MHz (698-806 MHz)
2.6 GHz
China 2.3 GHz
2.6 GHz
Japan 850 MHz
1.7/1.9 GHz
2.1 GHz
700 MHz (698-806 MHz planned)
1.5 GHz
South Korea 1800 MHz
2100 MHz
800 MHz
Rest of Asia-Pacific 1800 MHz 700 MHz (698-806 MHz planned)
2.3 GHz
2.6 GHz
Legend: Currently used by LTE Likely use by LTE Other mobile frequency bands
5.1
84.2
29.9 20.3
49.6 50.670.3
518.2
10.7
54.531.1
71.4
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Australia 850
MHz 2004
Canada
AWS 2008
France
UMTS core
band 2001
France Free
2009
France 2.1
GHz Orange
2010
France 2.1
GHz SFR
2010
Germany
800 MHz T-
Mobile 2010
Germany
UMTS core
band
Germany
2.1 GHz
2010
Spain 800
MHz 2011
Sweden 800
MHz 2011
USA 700
MHz 2008
Premium spectrum ( € cents per MHz per pop)
► EUR 70 cents per MHz per pop in Germany for
the DD: very close to the level reached in theUSA. In Sweden it sold for EUR 31 cents, inSpain for EUR 54 cents and in Italy for 85 cents.
► 2.6 GHz spectrum much cheaper: in the EUR0.1-10 cents range
► France 2.6 GHz: € 11 cents
► Italy 2.6 GHz: € 6 cents
Spectrum price
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TD-LTE: a complement to LTE FDD
Source: IDATE
► TDD mode in China and in India
There is strong potential for TD-LTE in China as it is seen asthe natural evolution of the home-grown 3G TD-SCDMAstandard;
China Mobile, the first mobile operator in the World by thenumber of subscribers, is currently rolling out its 3G networkusing the TD-SCDMA technology. The operator claims that60% of its CAPEX will be reusable for its planned TD-LTEnetwork. A strong ecosystem is appearing as there is alsosupport from BWA actors in India and, in addition, someMobile WiMAX actors could shift to TD-LTE in the comingyears
► The growing interest for TD-LTE can be explained by
the following factors
Unlike 3G, the TDD and FDD versions of LTE asdefined by the standardisation body 3GPP are 90%similar.
Availability of (unused) TDD spectrum
Ecosystem: there is strong support from leadingmobile operators + some WiMAX actors (Yota &Clearwire?)
Likely frequency bands for TD-LTE
TD-LTE: already in commercial service
► First TD-LTE launch in September 2011
Migration paths to TD-LTE
TD-SCDMA
Mobile-WiMAX
Super-PHS
TD-LTEadoption
Mobile-WiMAX
2.6 GHz TDD spectrum
2.3 GHz spectrum A n n o u n c e d i n M
a y 2 0 1 0 c h o i c e o f T D - L T E
T D - L T E s e l e c t e d a s n a t u r a l
e v o l u t i o n f r o m T D - S C D M A .
E a r l y t e s t s
W i l l i m p l e m e n t
a T D - L T E n e t w o r k i n 2 0 1 2 / 2 0 1 3
W e n t b a n k r u p t c y i n 2 0 0 9 .
M i g h t c h o o s e T D - L T E
Tests Initial deployments Mass market
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2.6 GHz TDD spectrum
2.6 GHz TDD spectrum
First commercial
TD-LTE launch
Operators 3G Technology Frequency band Date
P1 (Malaysia) Mobile WiMAX 2.3 GHz 2012
China Mobile TD-SCDMA 2.3 GHz 2011-2013
India WCDMA and CDMA 2000 2.3 GHz 2011-2012
Europe WCDMA and TD-CDMA (unused) 2 GHz >2013?
Europe none 2.6 GHz 2011-2013
Yota (Russia) Mobile WiMAX 2.6 GHz 2011
Clearwire (USA) Mobile WiMAX 2.6 GHz 2012-2013
Willcom (Japan) Mobile WiMAX 2.6 GHz 2012?
8/3/2019 IDATE Digiworld Summit 2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/idate-digiworld-summit-2011 32/36
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Need foradditional
capacity
Reduce costs
Competition
Increase
ARPU
Provide
higher datarates
Need for
additionalcapacity
Reduce costs
Competition
Increase
ARPU
Provide
higher data
rates
Need for
additionalcapacity
Reduce costs
Competition
Increase
ARPU
Provide
higher data
rates
Need foradditional
capacity
Reduce costs
Competition
Increase
ARPU
Provide
higher datarates
Need foradditional
capacity
Reduce costs
Competition
Increase
ARPU
Provide
higher datarates
Need foradditional
capacity
Reduce costs
Competition
Increase
ARPU
Provide
higher datarates
Reduce costs
Competition
IncreaseARPU
Reduce costs
Competition
IncreaseARPU
Reduce costs
Competition
IncreaseARPU
Need foradditionalcapacity
Need foradditionalcapacity
Need foradditionalcapacity
Providehigher data
rates
Providehigher data
rates
Providehigher data
rates Source: IDATE
LTE strategies
IDATE has identified five
key drivers as reasons for
MNOs to migrate to LTE:►Reduce costs
►Need for additional
capacity
►Increase ARPU
►Provide higher data
rates
►Competitive pressure
8/3/2019 IDATE Digiworld Summit 2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/idate-digiworld-summit-2011 33/36
Conclusions
8/3/2019 IDATE Digiworld Summit 2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/idate-digiworld-summit-2011 34/36
Conclusions
Mobile sector still dynamic in the USA, struggling in Europe
Devices:
Smarphones representing a growing part of devices shipments
LTE devices coming slowly to the market
The US market is currently the priority for LTE device manufacturers
LTE networks
RAN available, LTE commercial networks in 2010
IMS core networks being built, key to VoLTE offering
LTE delivers the expected data rates and latency
LTE-Advanced: probably earlier than expected
LTE is seen as a solution to congestion and saturation network issues in dense areas
LTE spectrum
Fragmentation risk
Regional harmonization likely
MNOs strategies
New technology path
More capacity/ higher data rates
Network sharing developing and wholesale operators appearing
8/3/2019 IDATE Digiworld Summit 2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/idate-digiworld-summit-2011 35/36
The “IDATE Watch Services” are specifically designed to provide operators,
vendors, government bodies and regulators with a comprehensive andcontinuous analysis of the issues that impact the markets
> FTTx Watch Service > LTE Watch Service
Database - a unique, continually updated
market database, providing market data by
country and by technology and forecasts
Insights - Monthly views on key issues
Market reports - in-depth analysis
Analyst Access - consulting hours, analystbriefs, presentations
8/3/2019 IDATE Digiworld Summit 2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/idate-digiworld-summit-2011 36/36
THANK YOU!
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