IAG 1Q15 Results Nomura

Rating Remains BuyTarget price Remains 700p

Closing price 29 April 2015 559p

Potential upside +25.2%

Research analysts

European Transport

James Hollins - NIplc [email protected] +44 20 7102 1543

Arthur Truslove - NIplc [email protected] +44 20 7102 1185

Industry specialist

Rebecca Langley - NIplc [email protected] +44 20 7103 4691

Key company data: See page 2 for company data and detailed price/index chart

International Airlines Group

ICAG.L IAG LN

EQUITY: EUROPEAN AIRLINES

Results review

The strong 1Q results and confident outlook reaffirm our support for a long position in IAG 1Q results ahead of expectations IAG reported 1Q EBIT of +EUR 25m, ahead of consensus (loss of EUR 3m) and our expectation of a loss of EUR 47m. The first-time 1Q profit (EUR 175m y-o-y improvement) represents a clear welcome progression for the business, with British Airways EBIT rising y-o-y from a EUR 5m loss to +EUR 117m, Iberia losses reducing from EUR 111m to EUR 55m, and Vueling relatively flat (EUR 29m loss vs EUR 30m loss) following a front-loaded staff pay increase.

FY15E outlook maintained despite marginal increase in fuel guidance On the outlook, the group maintains guidance of FY15E EBIT in excess of EUR 2.2bn (NomE: EUR 2.25bn, consensus: EUR 2.29bn) and our adjusted forecasts, therefore, continue to sit in line with group expectations. It is important to note that the retained guidance of FY15E EBIT >EUR 2.2bn is despite slightly higher fuel expectations (EUR 6.0bn vs previous EUR 5.9bn guidance) and management has noted that this reflects a ‘slight improvement’ in underlying ex-fuel expectations for the full year.

Positive short- and medium-term outlook – retain Buy The 1Q results and call highlighted or reiterated several key issues that support our bull stance: (1) Iberia rebrand has been ‘fantastic’, with further revenue and cost benefits to come from the Iberia ‘Plan de Futuro’, (2) IAG is still to see some margin benefits at BA from back-office cost rationalisation, (3) IAG has seen a strong improvement in its position at Gatwick, and the outlook on short-haul into the summer is ‘very encouraging’, (4) the new route update shows Kuala Lumpur as very impressive and Chengdu improving following a slow start, (5) existing routes will benefit from Virgin withdrawing from markets such as Tokyo and Cape Town, (6) the group cargo contribution has improved since exiting full freighters at the end of 1Q14, (7) Aer Lingus dialogue is continuing and is expected to be concluded in coming weeks. We regard the 1Q results as strong, the underlying FY15E guidance (ex-fuel) has risen marginally, and we see real value in the stock now trading at a P/E FY15E of 10.2x (9.0x FY16E), 5.0x adj. EV/EBITDAR (4.6x FY16E), with resumption of dividends for FY15E (2.4% yield) – our EPS CAGR is 12% for FY15-18E.

Year-end: Dec 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E

Currency (EUR) Actual Old New Old New Old New

Total Revenue (mn) 20,170 21,280 21,608 22,245 22,428 23,301 23,525

EBITDA (mn) 2,586 3,473 3,510 3,793 3,807 4,040 4,077

PBT Underlying 1,106 1,958 1,983 2,238 2,239 2,452 2,474

Adj EPS (EUR) 0.39 0.71 0.72 0.81 0.81 0.88 0.89

DPS (EUR) 0.00 0.19 0.19 0.21 0.21 0.23 0.24

P/E (x) 16.9 N/A 10.2 N/A 9.0 N/A 8.2

Net yield (%) 0.0 N/A 2.4 N/A 2.8 N/A 3.1

EV/EBITDA (x) 8.3 N/A 6.2 N/A 5.7 N/A 5.3

Source: Company data, Nomura estimates

Global Markets Research 1 May 2015

See Appendix A-1 for analyst certification, important disclosures and the status of non-US analysts.

Nomura | International Airlines Group 1 May 2015

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Key data on International Airlines Group Rating Stock BuySector Bullish Relative performance chart

Source: Thomson Reuters, Nomura research

Performance (%) 1m 3m 12m YTDAbsolute -5.9 -0.9 40.2 15.0Relative to sector -6.2 -6.1 10.0 1.0 Enterprise value Year-end: Dec 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017EAvg/curr share price (GBP p) 559.00 559.00 559.00 559.00Avg shares outstanding (mn) 2,036.00 2,036.00 2,036.00 2,036.00Market cap (GBP bn) 11.38 11.38 11.38 11.38Net debt/(cash) (GBP bn) 4.30 3.41 3.33 3.10Pension deficit (GBP bn) 1.03 0.95 0.95 0.95Other EV adj (GBP bn) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Enterprise value (GBP bn) 16.70 15.74 15.67 15.44Enterprise value (EUR bn) 21.51 21.84 21.73 21.42Free float: 100.0%

Valuation Year-end: Dec 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017EP/E (x) 16.9 10.2 9.0 8.2P/adj NAV (x) 4.2 3.1 2.4 2.0EV/revenue (x) 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9EV/EBITDA (x) 8.3 6.2 5.7 5.3EV/EBIT (x) 15.5 9.7 8.7 7.9EV/CE (x) 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.7FCF yield (%) (6.9) 7.2 3.5 5.7Dividend yield (%) 0.0 2.4 2.8 3.1 Growth (%) Year-end: Dec 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017ELfl Revenue 0.8 2.0 0.0 1.2Revenue 8.0 7.1 3.8 4.9EBITDA 45.6 35.7 8.5 7.1EBIT 80.5 61.8 11.0 8.8EPS 89.0 78.2 12.9 10.5DPS N/M N/M 12.9 10.5 Margins & returns Year-end: Dec 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017EEBITDAR margin (%) 15.6 18.9 19.6 19.9EBITDA margin (%) 12.8 16.2 17.0 17.3EBIT margin (%) 6.9 10.4 11.1 11.5ROE (%) 16.3 30.6 27.1 24.1ROCE (%) 12.0 17.9 17.6 17.2ROCE/WACC (x) 1.6 2.4 2.3 2.3Source: Company data, Nomura estimates; please see the appendix at the back of this report

for more detailed financial statements.

Summary income statement (EUR mn) Year-end: Dec 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017ERevenue 20,170 21,608 22,428 23,525EBITDAR 3,137 4,089 4,397 4,678Rent (551) (579) (590) (602)Depreciation & amortization (1,196) (1,262) (1,312) (1,361)Adj EBIT 1,390 2,249 2,495 2,715Net interest (284) (266) (257) (241)Adj pre-tax profit 1,106 1,983 2,239 2,474Income tax (238) (436) (492) (544)Minorities (21) 0 0 0Extraordinary items 0 0 0 0Net income 569 1,547 1,746 1,930Adj EPS (EUR) 0.39 0.72 0.81 0.89DPS (EUR) 0.00 0.19 0.21 0.24Dividend payout ratio (%) 0.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 Summary cash flow statement (EUR mn) Year-end: Dec 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017EEBITDA 2,586 3,510 3,807 4,077Other/pension (896) (409) (409) (409)Change in working capital 426 0 0 0Cash inflow 2,116 3,101 3,398 3,668Interest (159) (266) (257) (241)Taxation (118) (218) (246) (272)Capital expenditure (2,622) (1,800) (2,500) (2,500)Group FCF (783) 818 396 654Net (acquisitions)/disposals (310) 199 199 199Cash dividends received/(paid) 2 0 (387) (437)Equity financing 0 0 0 0FX & others 1,078 (520) (520) (520)Net cash in/(out)flow (13) 496 (313) (104)Net cash/(debt) (5,530) (4,727) (4,620) (4,307) Summary balance sheet (EUR mn) Year-end: Dec 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017EFixed assets 11,784 12,124 13,113 14,053Goodwill 2,438 2,438 2,438 2,438Total assets 23,652 24,897 25,982 27,228Long term liabilities 10,058 9,558 9,058 8,558Short term liabilities 9,801 9,983 10,168 10,357Pension liability 1,324 1,324 1,324 1,324Other provisions 1,967 1,967 1,967 1,967Shareholders' equity 3,485 5,048 6,448 8,004Total liabilities & equity 23,652 24,897 25,982 27,228 Financial ratios Year-end: Dec 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017EInterest cover (x) 4.9 8.5 9.7 11.3Fixed cover charge (x) 2.3 3.3 3.6 3.9Dividend cover (x) 0.0 4.0 4.0 4.0Net debt/EBITDA (x) 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0Adj net debt/EBITDAR (x) 1.8 1.2 1.1 0.9Net debt/equity (%) 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0Source: Company data, Nomura estimates


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IAG – 1Q & outlook IAG reported 1Q EBIT of +EUR 25m, ahead of consensus (loss of EUR 3m) and our expectation of a loss of EUR 47m. The first-time 1Q profit (EUR 175m y-o-y improvement) represents a clear welcome progression for the business, with British Airways EBIT rising y-o-y from a EUR 5m loss to +EUR 117m, Iberia losses reducing from EUR 111m to EUR 55m, and Vueling relatively flat (EUR 29m loss vs EUR 30m loss) following a front-loaded staff pay increase (three-year agreement) that will normalise from 1Q16E.

For the group, constant currency unit revenue was exactly as per our expectation (-0.8% y-o-y), although material forex movements led to revenue for the quarter well ahead of our estimate of EUR 4.45bn (reported EUR 4.71bn, +12% y-o-y).

Across the regions, North America was the standout performer (despite some oil-related softness in demand to Houston), with a helpful benign capacity shift (+0.5% y-o-y) supporting constant currency unit revenue (RASK) growth of +5.0%. In Fig. 1, the expectation would be for a major capacity decline/rise to be partially offset by a corresponding RASK increase/decrease. However, North America has both bars in the chart heading in the same direction, reflecting a strong underlying performance.

Elsewhere, the trends are as projected, with high-capacity growth in territories such as LatAm (driven by Iberia) and Europe (Vueling and Iberia) offset by RASK declines. The only capacity and unit revenue drop is in AMESA, with pockets of softness on Middle Eastern and South-East Asian routes, reflecting a clear negative impact from route over-capacity and aggressive competition. Fig. 1: IAG 1Q15 capacity (ASKs) and constant currency unit revenue (RASK) % change y-o-y


The overall 1Q capacity increase of +5.0% is projected to show an incremental rise through the summer (2Q +5.9%, 3Q +6.1%) before falling back to +4.8% in 4Q (FY15E guidance maintained at +5.5%). We expect the group to maintain its target of annual capacity +3-4% from FY16 to FY20 (as per our estimates).

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Fig. 2: IAG capacity outlook FY15E ASKs % change y-o-y


Constant currency unit costs (CASK) fell by 2.7% (vs NomE -3.4%) in 1Q15, although there were clear forex headwinds (forex led to a 900bp unit cost increase on reported numbers) and we have adjusted our forecasts (underlying relatively neutral bottom-line impact) to reflect the 1Q and expected 2Q forex effect on revenue (positive) and expenses (negative). 1Q itself had just an EUR 8m forex negative effect, and we expect forex to be neutral or a small positive from 3Q as there is a seasonally higher proportion of ex-EUR revenues (we assume a neutral impact from 2Q).

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IAG BA Iberia Vueling


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Forecast changes Fig. 3: IAG forecast changes EURm


On the outlook, the group continues to maintain guidance of FY15E EBIT in excess of EUR 2.2bn (NomE: EUR 2.25bn, consensus: EUR 2.29bn) and our adjusted forecasts, therefore, continue to sit in line with group expectations.

It is important to note that the retained guidance of FY15E EBIT in excess of EUR 2.2bn is despite a slightly higher fuel expectation (EUR 6.0bn vs previous EUR 5.9bn guidance) and management has noted that this reflects a ‘slight improvement’ in underlying ex-fuel guidance following the strong 1Q.

For 2Q, the group has also flagged that the quarter will likely not show the impressive EUR 175m y-o-y EBIT improvement as seen in 1Q given the timing of Easter (benefit was all 2Q last year) and a previously highlighted fuel cost headwind for the quarter. This

New New New Old Old Old % ch. % ch. % ch.

Profit and loss account 2015E 2016E 2017E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2015E 2016E 2017E

Capacity % change (ASKs) 5.5% 4.0% 3.8% 5.5% 4.0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Yield % change (EURc per RPK) 2.0% 0.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.8% 1.2% 1.8% -0.8% 0.0%

Passenger revenues 19,181 19,949 20,965 18,852 19,763 20,751 2% 1% 1%

Cargo revenues 992 1,017 1,053 1,007 1,032 1,058 -1% -1% -1%

Group traffic revenues 20,173 20,966 22,018 19,859 20,795 21,809 2% 1% 1%

Other revenues 1,434 1,463 1,507 1,421 1,449 1,493 1% 1% 1%

Group total revenues 21,608 22,428 23,525 21,280 22,245 23,301 2% 1% 1%

Expenses

Personnel 4,498 4,520 4,611 4,390 4,456 4,613 2% 1% 0%

Fuel and oil 5,960 6,170 6,616 5,890 6,190 6,587 1% 0% 0%

Engineering and other 1,292 1,331 1,367 1,238 1,275 1,310 4% 4% 4%

Landing and en route 1,657 1,740 1,824 1,657 1,740 1,815 0% 0% 0%

Handling and catering 2,220 2,309 2,395 2,155 2,241 2,337 3% 3% 3%

Selling expenses 885 929 975 911 956 985 -3% -3% -1%

Accom., ground equip. & FX differences 1,007 1,032 1,058 987 1,002 1,012 2% 3% 4%

Operating costs 17,519 18,031 18,846 17,228 17,861 18,659 2% 1% 1%

CEASK (ex-fuel) % change -0.5% -1.2% -0.6% -2.3% -0.9% -0.3% 1.8% -0.3% -0.3%

EBITDAR 4,089 4,397 4,678 4,052 4,383 4,642 1% 0% 1%

- margin (%) 18.9% 19.6% 19.9% 19.0% 19.7% 19.9% -1% 0% 0%

Aircraft operating lease 579 590 602 579 590 602 0% 0% 0%

EBITDA 3,510 3,807 4,077 3,473 3,793 4,040 1% 0% 1%

- margin (%) 16.2% 17.0% 17.3% 16.3% 17.1% 17.3% 0% 0% 0%

Depreciation 1,262 1,312 1,361 1,249 1,299 1,348 1% 1% 1%

EBIT 2,249 2,495 2,715 2,224 2,494 2,693 1% 0% 1%

Associates/Share of operating income 0 0 0 0 0 0

Net interest (266) (257) (241) (266) (256) (241) 0% 0% 0%

Profit before tax - adjusted 1,983 2,239 2,474 1,958 2,238 2,452 1% 0% 1%

Exceptionals 0 0 0 0 0 0

Profit before tax - stated 1,983 2,239 2,474 1,958 2,238 2,452 1% 0% 1%

Tax (436) (492) (544) (431) (492) (539) 1% 0% 1%

Net profit - stated pre-minorities 1,547 1,746 1,930 1,527 1,745 1,912 1% 0% 1%


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places some pressure on 2H, although we regard the >EUR 2.2bn FY15E EBIT target is readily achievable given the capacity and projected demand outlook.

Overall, we regard the outlook for FY15 and the ability of IAG to achieve its longer-term targets as positive. Following the 1Q results and analyst call, we highlight the following key issues:

• The Iberia rebrand has been ‘fantastic’, according to the management that is very pleased with performance within the legacy Spanish brand. Furthermore, there are still brand, revenue and cost benefits to come from the Iberia ‘Plan de Futuro’, all aimed at reaching the mid-term (2020) target of an EBIT margin of 10-12%.

• IAG is still to see some margin benefits at BA from back-office cost rationalisation, and we would also highlight the upcoming benefits of moving from three to two terminals at Heathrow as supportive of further margin accretion in the core brand

• IAG has seen a strong improvement in its position at Gatwick and the outlook, particularly at Gatwick, on short-haul into the summer is ‘very encouraging’. The group will also benefit from the completion of the Gatwick BA short-haul upgauge exercise

• The new route update shows Kuala Lumpur as very impressive on future bookings (starts 27 May) and Chengdu is improving following a slow start (Visa issues). We also believe that the uptick in capacity at Haneda has been a big success

• Existing routes will also benefit from Virgin withdrawing from markets such as Tokyo and Cape Town (although most of this capacity will be pushed onto transatlantic)

• The group’s cargo contribution has improved since exiting full freighters at the end of 1Q14 and outsourcing the non-belly cargo to Qatar Airways. We firmly believe that the Qatar relationship can and will be deepened further over the short- to medium-term, encompassing passenger traffic as well, with a corresponding increase in group returns on the Africa, Middle East and South Asia routes

• Aer Lingus dialogue is continuing (expected to be concluded in coming weeks). We believe that this deal would be strongly earnings-accretive in the medium term, although political risk around acceptance leads us to remain cautious ahead of any announcement

We regard the 1Q results as strong, the underlying FY15E guidance (ex-fuel) has effectively risen marginally, and we see real value in the stock (on new numbers) now trading at a FY15E P/E of 10.2x (9.0x FY16E), adjusted EV/EBITDAR of 5.0x (4.6x FY16E), with resumption of dividends for FY15E (2.4% yield). These multiples are despite a projected (NomE) earnings CAGR of 12% (FY15-18E) and we retain our Buy on an unchanged target price of 700p.


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Summary financials Fig. 4: IAG summary income statement EURm


Profit and loss account 1Q14A 2014 1Q15A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E

Capacity % change (ASKs) 11.8% 9.3% 5.0% 5.5% 4.0% 3.8% 3.8%

Yield % change (EURc per RPK) -1.3% 0.8% 5.8% 2.0% 0.0% 1.2% 1.2%

Passenger revenues 3,664 17,825 4,116 19,181 19,949 20,965 22,034

Cargo revenues 250 992 246 992 1,017 1,053 1,090

Group traffic revenues 3,914 18,817 4,362 20,173 20,966 22,018 23,123

Other revenues 289 1,353 345 1,434 1,463 1,507 1,552

Group total revenues 4,203 20,170 4,707 21,608 22,428 23,525 24,675

Expenses

Personnel 1,018 4,325 1,124 4,498 4,520 4,611 4,751

Fuel and oil 1,388 5,987 1,389 5,960 6,170 6,616 6,998

Engineering and other 307 1,276 334 1,292 1,331 1,367 1,404

Landing and en route 335 1,555 362 1,657 1,740 1,824 1,911

Handling and catering 452 2,063 511 2,220 2,309 2,395 2,485

Selling expenses 213 859 227 885 929 975 1,024

Accom., ground equip. & FX differences 236 968 285 1,007 1,032 1,058 1,084

Operating costs 3,949 17,033 4,232 17,519 18,031 18,846 19,657

CEASK (ex-fuel) % change -1.6% -1.6% -0.5% -0.5% -1.2% -0.6% -0.3%

EBITDAR 254 3,137 475 4,089 4,397 4,678 5,019

- margin (%) 6.0% 15.6% 10.1% 18.9% 19.6% 19.9% 20.3%

Aircraft operating lease 126 551 144 579 590 602 614

EBITDA 128 2,586 331 3,510 3,807 4,077 4,405

- margin (%) 3.0% 12.8% 7.0% 16.2% 17.0% 17.3% 17.9%

Depreciation 278 1,196 306 1,262 1,312 1,361 1,413

EBIT (150) 1,390 25 2,249 2,495 2,715 2,992

Net interest (53) (284) (62) (266) (257) (241) (227)

Profit before tax - adjusted (203) 1,106 (37) 1,983 2,239 2,474 2,765

Exceptionals 0 (278) 0 0 0 0 0

Profit before tax - stated (203) 828 (37) 1,983 2,239 2,474 2,765

Tax 19 (238) 11 (436) (492) (544) (608)

Net profit - stated pre-minorities (184) 590 (26) 1,547 1,746 1,930 2,157


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Data page – IAG Fig. 5: ASKs (bn) & y-o-y change (%)


Fig. 6: Yield (EURc/RPK) & y-o-y change (%)

Source: Company data, Nomura estimates Fig. 7: Cost per EASK (CEASK) split (FY14)


Fig. 8: CASK ex-fuel (EURc) & y-o-y change (%)

Source: Company data, Nomura estimates Fig. 9: CASK y-o-y change (%)

Source: Company data, Nomura estimates Fig. 10: EBITDAR (EURm) & EBITDAR margin (%)


Fig. 11: NOPAT (EURm) & ROCE (%)


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Appendix A-1

Analyst Certification

I, James Hollins, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this Research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this Research report, (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this Research report and (3) no part of my compensation is tied to any specific investment banking transactions performed by Nomura Securities International, Inc., Nomura International plc or any other Nomura Group company.

Issuer Specific Regulatory Disclosures The term "Nomura Group" used herein refers to Nomura Holdings, Inc. or any of its affiliates or subsidiaries, and may refer to one or more Nomura Group companies.

Materially mentioned issuers Issuer Ticker Price Price date Stock rating Sector rating Disclosures International Airlines Group IAG LN 559p 29-Apr-2015 Buy Bullish A4,A5,A6,A16

A4 The Nomura Group had an investment banking services client relationship with the issuer during the past 12 months.

A5 The Nomura Group has received compensation for investment banking services from the issuer in the past 12 months.

A6 The Nomura Group expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from the issuer in the next three months.

A16 An employee, director or associated person, of the Nomura Group is an officer, director or advisory board member of the issuer.

International Airlines Group (IAG LN) 559p (29-Apr-2015) Rating and target price chart (three year history)

Buy (Sector rating: Bullish)

Date Rating Target price Closing price 02-Mar-15 700.00 574.00 30-Jan-15 650.00 544.50 08-Dec-14 550.00 477.70 07-May-14 465.00 394.20 21-Jan-14 474.00 431.40 18-Nov-13 380.00 362.00 14-Aug-13 335.00 316.00 21-Jan-13 283.00 212.50

For explanation of ratings refer to the stock rating keys located after chart(s)

Valuation Methodology We utilise a mid-term (average of FY15E and FY16E calendarised) combination of P/E and adjusted EV/EBITDAR to establish our target price, with a P/E expectation of 12x and EV/EBITDAR of 5.5x (pension adjusted at 1H 2014A deficit figure) driving our TP of 700p. The benchmark index for this stock is the Dow Jones STOXX® 600. Risks that may impede the achievement of the target price IAG operates in an industry with high macroeconomic sensitivity in both the passenger and cargo divisions. Its global presence means exposure to all major economic areas. Consumer confidence affects travel in the economy cabin, while corporate spend by companies has an impact on demand in the premium cabin. Air travel is sensitive to external shocks such as terrorism, wars, pandemics and natural disasters. With revenues, costs, capital requirements and debt in different currencies, the company is exposed to movements in major currencies, particularly the dollar and sterling versus the euro. Fuel makes up an important part of the cost base, making oil price movements an important


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factor, and, with personnel a major cost line, industrial disruption is a risk. With high operating and financial leverage, forecasts are sensitive to changes in any of these factors. IAG has particular exposure to the North Atlantic and Latin American routes.

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