Hosted by The Future of Windows in the Enterprise John Enck Vice President and Research Director Server and Directory Strategies Copyright © 2003, Gartner

Hosted by

The Future of Windows in the Enterprise

John EnckVice President and Research DirectorServer and Directory Strategies

Copyright © 2003, Gartner

Hosted by

Windows NT

OpenSource

EnterpriseRequirements

ProductBreadth

SecurityBusinessIssues

Windows Challenges and OpportunitiesWindows Challenges and Opportunities

Key Gartner Forecasts Through 2012:• Bandwidth will become more cost-effective than computing • Most major new systems will be interenterprise• Moore’s Law continues to hold true through this decade• The pendulum swings back from centralized to decentralized by 2004


Hosted by


Microprocessor MarketMicroprocessor Market

IPF

IA-32Windows

HP-UX

OtherOS/400

zOS & OS/390

Linux

Other

CMOS

Power

SPARC

0

10

20

30

40

50

$60

2002 20070

10

20

30

40

50

$60

2002 2007

OS MarketOS Market

$ in Billions $ in Billions

NetWare

Other Unix

AIX

Solaris

Server Market Share TrendsServer Market Share Trends

Hosted by


TCO

Capabilities

24x7 transaction servers

Large, reliable transaction servers

Single-function, cloned servers

Business logic and application servers

zSeries

Unix

Windows

Linux

iSeriesWindows NT

NetWare

Server TCO: It Depends on the TaskServer TCO: It Depends on the Task

Hosted by


•Competitive choices between OEMs

•Configuration price•Availability of entry

skills•Microsoft software

and development tools

•Strength in existing infrastructures

•Small-businessaccessibility, suite

•Enterprise acceptance (organization structure,existing investments)

•Trusted stability and security

•Proven scalability•“Consolidatability”•Availability of

experienced skills•Server focus of

vendors

vs. Unix•Pricing/licensing•Cross-hardware

support•Ease of cloning for

horizontal environments

•Strong architecture for special-purpose roles

•Less-expensive Unix alternative

•Not Windows

vs.

Linux vs. Windows vs. UnixLinux vs. Windows vs. Unix

Hosted by


Technology Failures• Microsoft development

process• Hardware failures • Environmental factors• Power failures and disasters

Operator Errors• Inexperienced

skills• Poor/immature

processes

Application Failures• Memory leaks• Weak architecture, design• Poor systems integration, testing• Immature applications

MTBF improved by factor of 3-4x overNT 4.0. Outstanding skills and processescould eliminate many issues, and shouldbe the primary focus to increase availability.

20%40%

40%

The Real Causes of Unplanned DowntimeThe Real Causes of Unplanned Downtime

Hosted by


Isolation

Administration cost

Start-up cost

Space, heat

Hardware efficiency

ISV support

ApplicationWindowsSoftware PartitionsHardware PartitionsIntel Hardware Racks/

BladesMixed

WorkloadHardware

PartitioningSoftware

PartitioningDistributed

Servers

BestWorst

Windows Consolidation: 2003 and 2008Windows Consolidation: 2003 and 2008

Hosted by


• ESX: Machine interface kernel OS (unique drivers required)

• GSX: OS-hosted partition manager (host OS drivers/tools utilized)

• Consolidates many small workloads on SMP systems

• Windows and Linux• Dynamically reallocates resources

• Processors: any percentage• Network bandwidth: average/maximum• I/O bandwidth: average/maximum

• ISV support risk (especially Microsoft)• Driver support (ESX)• Microsoft’s workload strategy

What It Does Risks/Issues

• Multiple underutilized single processor workloads

• Benefit from dynamic allocation • Application isolation important• New OS images and applications need

to be deployed quickly• Strong OEM relationship available• Without rapid ROI in mind• GSX: Flexibility, MS support critical• ESX: Performance critical

Use When

• Eliminate multiple OS administration• Eliminate multiple OS license costs

What It Doesn’t Do

VMware: Software PartitioningVMware: Software Partitioning

Hosted by


• Not just processor “affinity”• Dynamically adjusted processor utilization

(via priority-setting)• Dynamically set limits on physical and

virtual memory use of processes• Exceeding memory limit results in choice of

warning or termination• GUI, command line, scripting• Accounting data created• Unused resource dynamically reallocated

• Manage I/O or network bandwidth• Eliminate existing application collision

problems

What It Does

What It Doesn’t Do

• Compatibility testing needed• ISV support limited — with slow ramp

up (little motivation)

Risks/Issues

• Vendors can certify compatibility (e.g., all Microsoft)

• Microsoft develops tools/guidelines for easy in-house testing

• Isolation less critical than reducing administration costs

• Applications are more CPU-bound than I/O-bound

• Note: Availability 6/2003, but significant ISV support will lag by six to 18 months

Use When

The Promise of WSRMThe Promise of WSRM

Hosted by

System Performance

Unplanned Downtime

Workload Management

Partitioning

ISV Enthusiasm

Architectural Viability

Solaris

Technology

BusinessPractices

MarketMomentum Application Portfolio

Support

Professional Services

Availability of Skills

Win ASWin DSz/OS

Manageability

Server Selection: OLTP DifferentiationServer Selection: OLTP Differentiation


Hosted by


• Release Synchronization: All packages same time? Holidays, back-to-school …

• Customization: Shared vs. unique code? Consumer, Datacenter, 64-bit …

• Frequency: Size of mid-term “releases” or longer-term, major releases? Active Directory, partitioning, .NET, bonus packs …

• Hardware Synchronization: Intel processors, OEM systems? Itanium, Operton, Madison…

• Delivery: Pre-installed, in-place upgrades, subscriptions? OEM delivery, Internet delivery …

Microsoft’s Release Challenges

Windows 2003 • Active Directory improvements• NUMA and hot-add memory• WSRM• .NET Framework• IIS 6.0

Windows Blackcomb• Server and client• More work management• Partition-awareness• Storage unification (partial)

Windows Longhorn• Full client release• “Server Function Pack”• Active Directory enhancements• Dynamic processors

Windows TimelineWindows Timeline

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Hosted by

Performance

20042002 20032001 20062005 2007

Itanium (.18)Itanium (.18)Itanium 2 (.18)Itanium 2 (.18)Madison (.13)& DeerfieldMadison (.13)& Deerfield

PIII XeonPIII XeonXeon (P4) at .18, .13 and .09 with hyper-threadingXeon (P4) at .18, .13 and .09 with hyper-threading

PIIIPIII Pentium 4 at .18, .13 and .09 with hyper-threadingPentium 4 at .18, .13 and .09 with hyper-threading

PIIIPIII PIII MPIII M Centrino variants?Centrino variants?P4 MP4 M

64-bit SMP: Memory and compute-intensive applications

32-bit uni- and dual-processor: Desktops, workstations, departmental/SMB servers

32-bit low-power: Laptops, rack-dense blades and specialty devices

Montecito (.09)(dual core)Montecito (.09)(dual core)

32-bit SMP: Windows and Linux application workhorses

Intel Processor Road MapIntel Processor Road Map

Hosted by


• Scripting/command line tools• Automated system recovery• System tracing• Emergency management

servicefor remote recovery

• Device driver rollback• Remote control (single-user

terminal services)

• Domain rename• Forest-level root trusts• Ability to delete schema extensions• Introduction of application partitions • Support for LDAP inetOrgPerson object• Support for multiple binds over one

LDAP connection• Global catalog no longer required in

each site• Support for directory initialization from

media • Improved intersite replication topology

generation• Group membership replication

improvements • Group size limitations removed • Improved migration and management

tools

Active DirectoryPackaging

Management and Recovery

• Web Edition

.NET• IIS 6.0, • ASP.NET• .NET Framework• Enterprise UDDI

Scalability• 64-bit• NUMA• Hot-add memory• WSRM

***

***

* Only available with 100 percent Windows Server 2003 domain controllers

What is Windows Server 2003 All About?What is Windows Server 2003 All About?

Hosted by


• Up to two processors, 2GB memory• No domain controller capability• Cannot be a PKI certificate server• Not available through retail channels

• Up to four processors, 4GB memory• Terminal services

• Up to eight processors• 32GB memory for 32-bit, 64GB for 64-bit• Eight-node HA clustering• NUMA support, hot-add memory• Metadirectory (MMS) support• WSRM

• Available only through the Datacenter Program• Up to 32 processors• 64GB memory for 32-bit, 128GB for 64-bit• WSRM

The Windows Server 2003 FamilyThe Windows Server 2003 Family

Hosted by


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

2000 Server

Server 2003

NTS v.4

Blackcomb Server

2008

Product launch Extended support Online support only

NTS support extended one year

Migrations should be complete for any critical servers

End-of-life expected in less than four years

Windows Support Life Cycles: 5+2Windows Support Life Cycles: 5+2

Hosted by

If deployment timing fits, use Windows Server 2003

If new Active Directory features are valuable, delay

deployment and use Windows Server 2003

NoWindows 2000

Servers

or

Avoid mixing domain controllers; mixing others is acceptableSome

Windows 2000 Servers

AllWindows 2000

Servers

Remain on Windows 2000 (for now); upgrade with a hardware refresh (delay mixing domain controllers)


Windows Server Migration TimingWindows Server Migration Timing

Hosted by

Scalability

Consolidation

Availability

Manageability

Skills Availability

Applications

Price

Market Acceptance

Competition

Non-issue2,500+ OLTP user references emerge

Multiprocessor virtual machines, WSRM

99.6% or more application availability references

Blade management software improves

Experienced skills gap closing

Price leader at 16-way and below

1,000 enterprises using Datacenter in production

Sun Solaris is primary competitor

Dynamic partitions, WSRM better (with ISV support)

Non-issue

Competitive market, but much improved

Non-issue

Price leader up to 32-way

6,000 or more enterprises using Datacenter in prod.

IBM AIX is primary competitor

Less than 200 Datacenter-proven applications

More than 1,000 Datacenter-proven applications

Data Center Issues: 2003 and 2008Data Center Issues: 2003 and 2008


Hosted by


Assets ChallengesFocus• Development tools and

application architecture standards (“operationally aware” applications)

• XML and Web services as the primary foundation

• Distributed server manageability improvements (WMI, MOM, SMS, Application Center)

• OS server consolidation improvements

• Defining Strategy: Microsoft has not yet publicly defined an RTI strategy

• Part of Problem: Windows server proliferation is the primary server management problem today and Windows lags in support for server consolidation tools

• Non-Windows: Enterprises do not want unique management solutions for Windows only

• Linux Velocity: Linux will gain momentum if its RTI capabilities improve faster than Windows’

• Limited Services: And limited direct management expertise

…and .NET Enterprise Servers

…and developers

Microsoft & RTI: “Must Have” TechnologyMicrosoft & RTI: “Must Have” Technology

Hosted by


64-Bit: Consider 64-bit Windows as a niche solution for specific applications, not as a general-purpose growth path.

Availability: The best way to maximize Windows availability is through skills and processes.

Partitions: Enterprises should consider VMware for projects that can provide an ROI in two years or less, but which also have an exit strategy — for example, test and development, migration, product demonstrations or low-end server consolidations.

Mixed Workload: Consider WSRM use for applications that can be proven to run effectively in a mixed environment only.

Windows NT 4.0: Enterprises should plan to migrate critical servers away from NT Server version 4.0 by year-end 2004 at the latest.

Windows Server 2003: Enterprises should view Windows Server 2003 as a point release and “slipstream” it into current Windows 2000 migration programs accordingly (starting 2H03).

“Function Packs”: Enterprises should prepare for Microsoft starting to offer optional server function pack between releases.

Windows Blackcomb: Enterprises should not plan on major improvements in Windows consolidation until Blackcomb (by 1H07).

RecommendationsRecommendations

Documents

Hosted by The Future of Windows in the Enterprise John Enck Vice President and Research Director Server and Directory Strategies Copyright © 2003, Gartner