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The Future of Windows in the Enterprise
John EnckVice President and Research DirectorServer and Directory Strategies
Copyright © 2003, Gartner
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Windows NT
OpenSource
EnterpriseRequirements
ProductBreadth
SecurityBusinessIssues
Windows Challenges and OpportunitiesWindows Challenges and Opportunities
Key Gartner Forecasts Through 2012:• Bandwidth will become more cost-effective than computing • Most major new systems will be interenterprise• Moore’s Law continues to hold true through this decade• The pendulum swings back from centralized to decentralized by 2004
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Microprocessor MarketMicroprocessor Market
IPF
IA-32Windows
HP-UX
OtherOS/400
zOS & OS/390
Linux
Other
CMOS
Power
SPARC
0
10
20
30
40
50
$60
2002 20070
10
20
30
40
50
$60
2002 2007
OS MarketOS Market
$ in Billions $ in Billions
NetWare
Other Unix
AIX
Solaris
Server Market Share TrendsServer Market Share Trends
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TCO
Capabilities
24x7 transaction servers
Large, reliable transaction servers
Single-function, cloned servers
Business logic and application servers
zSeries
Unix
Windows
Linux
iSeriesWindows NT
NetWare
Server TCO: It Depends on the TaskServer TCO: It Depends on the Task
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•Competitive choices between OEMs
•Configuration price•Availability of entry
skills•Microsoft software
and development tools
•Strength in existing infrastructures
•Small-businessaccessibility, suite
•Enterprise acceptance (organization structure,existing investments)
•Trusted stability and security
•Proven scalability•“Consolidatability”•Availability of
experienced skills•Server focus of
vendors
vs. Unix•Pricing/licensing•Cross-hardware
support•Ease of cloning for
horizontal environments
•Strong architecture for special-purpose roles
•Less-expensive Unix alternative
•Not Windows
vs.
Linux vs. Windows vs. UnixLinux vs. Windows vs. Unix
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Technology Failures• Microsoft development
process• Hardware failures • Environmental factors• Power failures and disasters
Operator Errors• Inexperienced
skills• Poor/immature
processes
Application Failures• Memory leaks• Weak architecture, design• Poor systems integration, testing• Immature applications
MTBF improved by factor of 3-4x overNT 4.0. Outstanding skills and processescould eliminate many issues, and shouldbe the primary focus to increase availability.
20%40%
40%
The Real Causes of Unplanned DowntimeThe Real Causes of Unplanned Downtime
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Isolation
Administration cost
Start-up cost
Space, heat
Hardware efficiency
ISV support
ApplicationWindowsSoftware PartitionsHardware PartitionsIntel Hardware Racks/
BladesMixed
WorkloadHardware
PartitioningSoftware
PartitioningDistributed
Servers
BestWorst
Windows Consolidation: 2003 and 2008Windows Consolidation: 2003 and 2008
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• ESX: Machine interface kernel OS (unique drivers required)
• GSX: OS-hosted partition manager (host OS drivers/tools utilized)
• Consolidates many small workloads on SMP systems
• Windows and Linux• Dynamically reallocates resources
• Processors: any percentage• Network bandwidth: average/maximum• I/O bandwidth: average/maximum
• ISV support risk (especially Microsoft)• Driver support (ESX)• Microsoft’s workload strategy
What It Does Risks/Issues
• Multiple underutilized single processor workloads
• Benefit from dynamic allocation • Application isolation important• New OS images and applications need
to be deployed quickly• Strong OEM relationship available• Without rapid ROI in mind• GSX: Flexibility, MS support critical• ESX: Performance critical
Use When
• Eliminate multiple OS administration• Eliminate multiple OS license costs
What It Doesn’t Do
VMware: Software PartitioningVMware: Software Partitioning
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• Not just processor “affinity”• Dynamically adjusted processor utilization
(via priority-setting)• Dynamically set limits on physical and
virtual memory use of processes• Exceeding memory limit results in choice of
warning or termination• GUI, command line, scripting• Accounting data created• Unused resource dynamically reallocated
• Manage I/O or network bandwidth• Eliminate existing application collision
problems
What It Does
What It Doesn’t Do
• Compatibility testing needed• ISV support limited — with slow ramp
up (little motivation)
Risks/Issues
• Vendors can certify compatibility (e.g., all Microsoft)
• Microsoft develops tools/guidelines for easy in-house testing
• Isolation less critical than reducing administration costs
• Applications are more CPU-bound than I/O-bound
• Note: Availability 6/2003, but significant ISV support will lag by six to 18 months
Use When
The Promise of WSRMThe Promise of WSRM
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System Performance
Unplanned Downtime
Workload Management
Partitioning
ISV Enthusiasm
Architectural Viability
Solaris
Technology
BusinessPractices
MarketMomentum Application Portfolio
Support
Professional Services
Availability of Skills
Win ASWin DSz/OS
Manageability
Server Selection: OLTP DifferentiationServer Selection: OLTP Differentiation
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• Release Synchronization: All packages same time? Holidays, back-to-school …
• Customization: Shared vs. unique code? Consumer, Datacenter, 64-bit …
• Frequency: Size of mid-term “releases” or longer-term, major releases? Active Directory, partitioning, .NET, bonus packs …
• Hardware Synchronization: Intel processors, OEM systems? Itanium, Operton, Madison…
• Delivery: Pre-installed, in-place upgrades, subscriptions? OEM delivery, Internet delivery …
Microsoft’s Release Challenges
Windows 2003 • Active Directory improvements• NUMA and hot-add memory• WSRM• .NET Framework• IIS 6.0
Windows Blackcomb• Server and client• More work management• Partition-awareness• Storage unification (partial)
Windows Longhorn• Full client release• “Server Function Pack”• Active Directory enhancements• Dynamic processors
Windows TimelineWindows Timeline
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
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Performance
20042002 20032001 20062005 2007
Itanium (.18)Itanium (.18)Itanium 2 (.18)Itanium 2 (.18)Madison (.13)& DeerfieldMadison (.13)& Deerfield
PIII XeonPIII XeonXeon (P4) at .18, .13 and .09 with hyper-threadingXeon (P4) at .18, .13 and .09 with hyper-threading
PIIIPIII Pentium 4 at .18, .13 and .09 with hyper-threadingPentium 4 at .18, .13 and .09 with hyper-threading
PIIIPIII PIII MPIII M Centrino variants?Centrino variants?P4 MP4 M
64-bit SMP: Memory and compute-intensive applications
32-bit uni- and dual-processor: Desktops, workstations, departmental/SMB servers
32-bit low-power: Laptops, rack-dense blades and specialty devices
Montecito (.09)(dual core)Montecito (.09)(dual core)
32-bit SMP: Windows and Linux application workhorses
Intel Processor Road MapIntel Processor Road Map
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• Scripting/command line tools• Automated system recovery• System tracing• Emergency management
servicefor remote recovery
• Device driver rollback• Remote control (single-user
terminal services)
• Domain rename• Forest-level root trusts• Ability to delete schema extensions• Introduction of application partitions • Support for LDAP inetOrgPerson object• Support for multiple binds over one
LDAP connection• Global catalog no longer required in
each site• Support for directory initialization from
media • Improved intersite replication topology
generation• Group membership replication
improvements • Group size limitations removed • Improved migration and management
tools
Active DirectoryPackaging
Management and Recovery
• Web Edition
.NET• IIS 6.0, • ASP.NET• .NET Framework• Enterprise UDDI
Scalability• 64-bit• NUMA• Hot-add memory• WSRM
***
***
* Only available with 100 percent Windows Server 2003 domain controllers
What is Windows Server 2003 All About?What is Windows Server 2003 All About?
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• Up to two processors, 2GB memory• No domain controller capability• Cannot be a PKI certificate server• Not available through retail channels
• Up to four processors, 4GB memory• Terminal services
• Up to eight processors• 32GB memory for 32-bit, 64GB for 64-bit• Eight-node HA clustering• NUMA support, hot-add memory• Metadirectory (MMS) support• WSRM
• Available only through the Datacenter Program• Up to 32 processors• 64GB memory for 32-bit, 128GB for 64-bit• WSRM
The Windows Server 2003 FamilyThe Windows Server 2003 Family
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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
2000 Server
Server 2003
NTS v.4
Blackcomb Server
2008
Product launch Extended support Online support only
NTS support extended one year
Migrations should be complete for any critical servers
End-of-life expected in less than four years
Windows Support Life Cycles: 5+2Windows Support Life Cycles: 5+2
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If deployment timing fits, use Windows Server 2003
If new Active Directory features are valuable, delay
deployment and use Windows Server 2003
NoWindows 2000
Servers
or
Avoid mixing domain controllers; mixing others is acceptableSome
Windows 2000 Servers
AllWindows 2000
Servers
Remain on Windows 2000 (for now); upgrade with a hardware refresh (delay mixing domain controllers)
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Windows Server Migration TimingWindows Server Migration Timing
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Scalability
Consolidation
Availability
Manageability
Skills Availability
Applications
Price
Market Acceptance
Competition
Non-issue2,500+ OLTP user references emerge
Multiprocessor virtual machines, WSRM
99.6% or more application availability references
Blade management software improves
Experienced skills gap closing
Price leader at 16-way and below
1,000 enterprises using Datacenter in production
Sun Solaris is primary competitor
Dynamic partitions, WSRM better (with ISV support)
Non-issue
Competitive market, but much improved
Non-issue
Price leader up to 32-way
6,000 or more enterprises using Datacenter in prod.
IBM AIX is primary competitor
Less than 200 Datacenter-proven applications
More than 1,000 Datacenter-proven applications
Data Center Issues: 2003 and 2008Data Center Issues: 2003 and 2008
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Assets ChallengesFocus• Development tools and
application architecture standards (“operationally aware” applications)
• XML and Web services as the primary foundation
• Distributed server manageability improvements (WMI, MOM, SMS, Application Center)
• OS server consolidation improvements
• Defining Strategy: Microsoft has not yet publicly defined an RTI strategy
• Part of Problem: Windows server proliferation is the primary server management problem today and Windows lags in support for server consolidation tools
• Non-Windows: Enterprises do not want unique management solutions for Windows only
• Linux Velocity: Linux will gain momentum if its RTI capabilities improve faster than Windows’
• Limited Services: And limited direct management expertise
…and .NET Enterprise Servers
…and developers
Microsoft & RTI: “Must Have” TechnologyMicrosoft & RTI: “Must Have” Technology
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64-Bit: Consider 64-bit Windows as a niche solution for specific applications, not as a general-purpose growth path.
Availability: The best way to maximize Windows availability is through skills and processes.
Partitions: Enterprises should consider VMware for projects that can provide an ROI in two years or less, but which also have an exit strategy — for example, test and development, migration, product demonstrations or low-end server consolidations.
Mixed Workload: Consider WSRM use for applications that can be proven to run effectively in a mixed environment only.
Windows NT 4.0: Enterprises should plan to migrate critical servers away from NT Server version 4.0 by year-end 2004 at the latest.
Windows Server 2003: Enterprises should view Windows Server 2003 as a point release and “slipstream” it into current Windows 2000 migration programs accordingly (starting 2H03).
“Function Packs”: Enterprises should prepare for Microsoft starting to offer optional server function pack between releases.
Windows Blackcomb: Enterprises should not plan on major improvements in Windows consolidation until Blackcomb (by 1H07).
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