Windows in the Enterprise: Looking Beyond Windows 2000John EnckVice President and Research DirectorServer StrategiesGartner

Key Issues

1. What are the road maps for Windows and IA server technologies?

2. What server roles are (and are not) suitable for Windows technology?

3. What are the future challenges and opportunities that will shape Windows?

4. What effect will .NET have on existing computing infrastructures?

Key Issues

1. What are the road maps for Windows and IA server technologies?

2. What server roles are (and are not) suitable for Windows technology?

3. What are the future challenges and opportunities that will shape Windows?

4. What effect will .NET have on existing computing infrastructures?

Server Forecast by OS

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

$ B

illio

ns

Others

NSK

OS/400

zOS

Tru64

HP-UX

AIX

Solaris

Unixware

Netware

Linux

Windows

NT

2001 = Actuals; 2002-2006 = Forecast

March 2002

Server Forecast by Processor

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

$ B

illio

ns

OtherCMOSMIPSSPARCAlphaPowerIA-32ItaniumPA-RISC

2001 = Actuals; 2002-2006 = Forecast

March 2002

Windows Road Map

Windows .NET Windows .NET Active Directory V2Active Directory V2 64-bit support64-bit support ““McKinley”-based McKinley”-based

systemssystems 16-way systems from 16-way systems from

IBMIBMWindows “Longhorn”Windows “Longhorn” Work managementWork management Partition-awarenessPartition-awareness

20022002

20032003

20042004

20052005

20062006

20072007Windows Windows

“Blackcomb”“Blackcomb” Unified data store V1?Unified data store V1?

Release Synchronization:Release Synchronization: All All packages same time? packages same time? Holidays, Holidays, back-to-school…back-to-school…

Customization:Customization: Shared vs. Shared vs. unique code? unique code? Consumer, Consumer, Datacenter, 64-bit…Datacenter, 64-bit…

Frequency:Frequency: Size of Mid-term Size of Mid-term “releases”, or longer-term major “releases”, or longer-term major releases? releases? Active Directory, Active Directory, partitioning, .NET, bonus partitioning, .NET, bonus packs…packs…

Hardware Synchronization:Hardware Synchronization: Intel processors, OEM systems? Intel processors, OEM systems? Itanium, McKinley…Itanium, McKinley…

Delivery:Delivery: Pre-installed, in-place Pre-installed, in-place upgrades, subscriptions? upgrades, subscriptions? OEM OEM delivery, Internet delivery…delivery, Internet delivery…

Microsoft’s Release Microsoft’s Release ChallengesChallenges

PerformancePerformance

’’0404’’0202 ’’0303’’0101 ’’0606’’0505 ’’0707

Itanium .25Itanium .25McKinley .18McKinley .18Madison/Deerfield .13 … .09Madison/Deerfield .13 … .09

PIII XeonPIII XeonXeon (P4) at .18, .13 and .09 with hyper-threadingXeon (P4) at .18, .13 and .09 with hyper-threading

PIIIPIII Pentium 4 at .18, .13 and .09Pentium 4 at .18, .13 and .09

PIIIPIII PIII MPIII M Alternate MobileAlternate MobileP4 MP4 M

64-bit SMP64-bit SMP

32-bit SMP32-bit SMP

32-bit mainstream uniprocessor32-bit mainstream uniprocessor

32-bit extended-addressing SMP?32-bit extended-addressing SMP?

?

32-bit low-power uniprocessor32-bit low-power uniprocessor

Intel Server Processor Road Map

Key Issues

1. What are the road maps for Windows and IA server technologies?

2. What server roles are (and are not) suitable for Windows technology?

3. What are the future challenges and opportunities that will shape Windows?

4. What effect will .NET have on existing computing infrastructures?

Operating System Landscape

2001/20022001/2002 20062006

Increasing Increasing Volume Volume

OpportunitOpportunityy

Increasing System and Application ComplexityIncreasing System and Application ComplexityAs of 2/02As of 2/02

LinuxLinuxNT/W2KNT/W2K UnixUnix Z/OSZ/OSNetWareNetWare

Enterprise-Enterprise-CriticalCritical

Specific andSpecific andCustomizedCustomized

Front-EndFront-EndApplicationsApplications

Web and Web and InfrastructureInfrastructure

Front-EndFront-EndApplicationsApplications

Specific and Specific and CustomizedCustomized

Enterprise-Enterprise-CriticalCritical

Web and Web and InfrastructurInfrastructur

ee

Operating System Landscape

Server Roles are Evolving

Old World• Monolithic computing

architectures• Rapid obsolescence• 1-to-1 resource

ownership• Workloads

disaggregated“Net Gen”• Capacity on demand (one-

to-two years)• Service-based

architectures (two-to-four years)

• IT utilities — pay per-usage (three-to-four years)

• Mixed workloads and virtual resources (five+ years)

• Zero latency business process (five+ years)

EdgeSpecific functionManage networkFast setup/low costHorizontal scaling

Caching, firewall, routers, network appliances, Web server, gatewaysSmall to midrange SMP, midtier, simple transactions

Large, mixed, complex workloads; investment protection

ApplicationGeneral purposeManage user Vertical scalingPackaged apps.

Database/TransactionExtreme scalingManage enterprise

Complex transactions

Highly available

Does one size fit all?

Horizontal Scaling

Vertical Scaling

3-D: Consolidat

ed Workloads

Capacity on Demand

Requirement Windows

Rapid, simple, inexpensive deployment, central management, reduced space/power consumption

Single image, large memory, good reliability

Share system resources without collision (mixed workload, partitions)

Rapidly and easily scale or replace failed capacity without paying for unused capacity

Application Center, appliance offerings

1,300 concurrent OLTP RDBMS users today

Job objects, work management tools, VMware, ES7000

Hardware vendor offerings for horizontal scaling

System PerformanceSystem Performance

Single System AvailabilitySingle System Availability

Workload ManagementWorkload Management

OS PartitioningOS Partitioning

BestBestWorstWorst

ISV EnthusiasmISV EnthusiasmArchitectural ViabilityArchitectural Viability

zSerieszSeriesz/OSz/OS

SunFireSunFireSolarisSolaris

8-Way8-WayWindowsWindows

ES7000ES7000WindowsWindows

TechnologyTechnology

BusinessBusinessPracticesPractices

MarketMarketMomentumMomentum

Application ChoiceApplication Choice

SupportSupport

Negotiation OpportunityNegotiation Opportunity

Professional ServicesProfessional Services

Availability of SkillsAvailability of Skills

Head to Head at the High End

Key Issues

1. What are the road maps for Windows and IA server technologies?

2. What server roles are (and are not) suitable for Windows technology?

3. What are the future challenges and opportunities that will shape Windows?

4. What effect will .NET have on existing computing infrastructures?

The Real Causes of Server Downtime

Technology Failures

•MS development process•Hardware failures •Environmental factors•Power failures and

disasters•Being addressed by

Windows development process

20%40%

40%

Operator Errors

•Inexperienced skills

•Poor/immature processes

•Being addressed by Windows Datacenter (services program)

Application Failures

•Memory leaks•Weak architecture,

design•Poor systems

integration, testing•Immature applications•Being addressed by

memory leak focus, certification push

Outstanding skills and processes could eliminate many issues, and should be the primary focus to increase availability.

Entry Skills

Availability

Retention

Cost

Everywhere!

Inexpensive

Technical growth

Experienced Data

Center Skills

Extremely hard to find

Very expensive — strong

competition (especially from

service providers)Significant

problems — strong Windows

skills are very portable

RecommendationsFocus on Skills Development

•Service providers: With skills transfer

•Internally: Mentors, apprenticesOrganize for Services, Not

Technologies•Cross-platform teams 

Focus on Retention Programs

Windows Data Center Skills Gap

Sever Consolidation: The Options are Coming . . .

Isolation Administration

costConfiguration

costSpace, heat

Hardware efficiency

Windows in 2001

Windows in 2004

ApplicationWindowsVMwareUnisys ES7000Intel Server

Best

RacksMixed

Workload

Hardware Partitioning

Logical Partitioni

ng

Worst

The Ultimate Showdown . . .

Windows Strengths•Competitive choices between

Intel server vendors•Configuration price•Availability of entry skills•Microsoft software and

development tools•Strength in existing

infrastructures — e.g., file/print, e-mail, directory

•Small-business accessibility, suite

Windows Challenges

•Enterprise reluctance (organization structure, existing investments)

•Proven stability•Proven scalability•Server consolidation•Availability/cost/portability of

experienced skills•Product breadth•Price and licensing vs. Linux

vs. Unix

Key Issues

1 . What are the road maps for Windows and IA server technologies?

2. What server roles are (and are not) suitable for Windows technology?

3. What are the future challenges and opportunities that will shape Windows?

4. What effect will .NET have on existing computing infrastructures?

Operating System Life Cycles

20012001 20022002 20032003 20042004 20052005 20062006

NTW v.4NTW v.4

20002000

2000 Server2000 Server

Gartner estimatesGartner estimatesGartner estimatesGartner estimates

XPXP

.NET Server.NET Server

““Longhorn” ClientLonghorn” Client

9898

NTS v.4NTS v.4Reduced Reduced channels, fixes channels, fixes for feefor feeOnline support Online support onlyonly

Product launchProduct launch

““Longhorn” ServerLonghorn” Server****

********

********

****20072007

Dot What?.NET vis-à-vis Application Developers

XML, SOAP, WSDL, UDDI, CLR, ADO.NET

.NET vis-à-vis Windows 2000

Active Directory improvements

Instant messaging infrastructure

End-user restore (self-service file recovery)

Itanium Processor Family (IPF, a.k.a. IA-64) support

New packaging (Web, Standard, Enterprise, and Datacenter)

Eight-node clustering in Datacenter; four-node in Enterprise

.NET vis-à-vis Windows NT 4

The carrot… and the stick!

Windows Server Migration: A Matter of Timing

If deployment timing fits, use Windows .NET servers If new Active Directory features are valuable, delay

deployment and use Windows .NET servers Otherwise, deploy Windows 2000

NoWindows 2000

servers

End of Support 2005? Ready for Deployment Late 2002or

Avoid mixing domain controllers; mixing others is acceptable

SomeWindows 2000

servers

AllWindows 2000

servers

Remain on Windows 2000; upgrade with hardware refresh (avoid mixing domain controllers)

Active Directory in Windows .NET

Domain rename

Forest-level root trusts

Ability to delete schema extensions

Introduction of application partitions

Support for LDAP inetOrgPerson object

Support for multiple binds over one LDAP

connection

Global catalog no longer required in each site

Support for directory initialization from media

Improved intersite replication topology

generation

Group membership replication improvements

Group size limitations removed

Improved migration and management tools

= = Only available with Only available with 100% Windows .NET 100% Windows .NET domain controllersdomain controllers

= = Available with mixed Available with mixed Windows 2000/.NET Windows 2000/.NET domain controllersdomain controllers

Copyright © 2002

RecommendationsRoles: Plan for a long-term architecture that includes several different

operating systems in various roles.

Cost: The most important factors in enterprise Windows server TCO are

experienced skills and efficient administration tools.

Application Support: Check comparable references first for any high-end

Windows-based deployments. Avoid the leading-edge.

Availability: The best way to maximize Windows availability is through skills

and processes.

Server Consolidation: Server consolidation is technically feasible, however

use extreme caution and evaluate the technology options (partitioning,

workload management, virtual servers) carefully.

Skills and Services: If Windows is or will become mission-critical for your

enterprise, then an employee cross-training and retention program should be

a top priority.

Windows in the Enterprise: Looking

Beyond Windows 2000

John EnckVice President and Research DirectorServer StrategiesGartner

QUESTIONS?