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Health Care Sector – Stock Presentation
Kailas JoshiDaniel Kurth
Agenda
• Sector Review• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)• Eli Lilly (LLY)• WellPoint (WLP)• Cardinal Health (CAH)• New Recommendations• Q&A
3/3/2009 2
Health Care Sector Review
3/3/2009 3
Healthcare Sector Overview
• The sector market capitalization is at $1.15 Trillion
• The Sector represents 15.94% of the S&P 500 by Market Cap
• Sector Revenues represented $63,874 million in 2008
Source: www.standardandpoors.com, US Equity Indices, as of 1/30/2009
Sector Review LLY CAH & WLP RecommendationsJNJ
3/3/2009 4
Sector Description# of Cos.
Adjusted Market Cap
SP-5A S&P 500 500 $7,192,455
SP-10 Energy 39 $1,014,055
SP-15 Materials 29 $218,994
SP-20 Industrials 59 $763,552
SP-25 Consumer Discretionary 80 $589,017
SP-30 Consumer Staples 40 $924,124
SP-35 Health Care 54 $1,146,392
SP-40 Financials 81 $770,678
SP-45 Information Technology 75 $1,166,403
SP-50Telecommunications Services
9 $267,760
SP-55 Utilities 34 $331,480
S&P 500 Sectors – Overview
*Values in USD millions
Source: www.standardandpoors.com, US Equity Indices, as of 12/31/2008
Sector Review LLY CAH & WLP RecommendationsJNJ
3/3/2009 5
Key External Factors
• Positive Demographic Shift• Increased prevalence of Heart Disease and
Obesity • Increased Government involvement
3/3/2009 6
Sector Review LLY CAH & WLP RecommendationsJNJ
Sector Weights in SIM Portfolio
As of 1/30/20093/3/2009 7
Sector Review LLY CAH & WLP RecommendationsJNJ
Sector Performances in S&P 500Sector Review LLY CAH & WLP RecommendationsJNJ
Source: 2008 Market Update, Fidelity Management & Research Co. (FMRC) as of 12/31/2008
3/3/2009 8
Recommendations
• S&P 500 weighting = 15.94%• SIM Weighting = 21.50%• Sector is overweight by 5.56%• Recommended sector weight: 19.00%• Action: reduce weight by 250 basis points• Reasons:
– 21.5% is extremely overweight– SIM portfolio could experience serious losses if the
sector underperforms the rest of the market– Changes in weights of other sectors will naturally tend to
increase the weight of Health care
9
Crisis/Recession Flu The Healing Sector OSU SIM PortfolioAnalyses & Valuation
Recommendation
3/3/2009
Holding YTD Return Return Since 1/1/2008
Cardinal Health (CAH) (2.83%) (43.84%)
Eli Lilly (LLY) (20.59%) (44.20%)
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) (12.18%) (23.67%)
WellPoint (WLP) (14.35%) (60.43%)
SIM Portfolio Holdings
As of 1/31/2008
Sector Review LLY CAH & WLP RecommendationsJNJ
3/3/2009 10
Proposal
• Current Holdings– Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) – HOLD– Eli Lilly (LLY) – SELL– Cardinal Health (CAH) – SELL– WellPoint (WLP) – HOLD
• New Holding– Medtronic (MDT) – BUY
• Resulting Portfolio Weight– 19.0%
3/3/2009 11
Sector Review LLY CAH & WLP RecommendationsJNJ
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
3/3/2009 12
Market Cap $138 Billion
• Price: $47.92• P/E: 10.95• EPS: 4.57• Div: 1.84 (3.50%)
• Segments: • 1. Consumer• 2. Medical Devices• 3. Pharmaceutical
3/3/2009 13
OverviewSector Review LLY CAH & WLP RecommendationsJNJ
Valuations – DCF Valuation
Terminal Discount Rate: 11.0% Terminal Value $218,546
Terminal FCF Growth: 2.5% NPV of Free Cash Flows 87,297 (53%)
NPV of Terminal Values 76,968 (47%)
Projected Equity Value 164,265
Shares Outstanding 2,758.9
Current Price $47.92
Implied Equity Value $59.54
Upside/(Downside) to DCF 24%
3/3/2009 14
Sector Review LLY CAH & WLP RecommendationsJNJ
Valuations - Multiples
3/3/2009 15
Sector Review LLY CAH & WLP RecommendationsJNJ
Absolute Valuation High Low Mean Current Target
MultipleTarget E, S, B, etc/Share
Target Price
P/Forward E 35.8 12.4 18.5 13.0 14.5 4.55 $68.25
P/S 6.35 2.47 4.02 2.61 3.5 23.07 $80.75
P/B 9.7 3.5 6.0 3.6 4.7 16.19 $76.09
P/EBITDA 25.6 8.5 13.1 8.8 12.0 6.62 $79.44
P/CF 32.3 10.3 17.3 10.6 14.0 5.498 $76.97
P/E/G ratio 2.7 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.7 34.28 $58.28
ROE 30.6 23.2 28.1 28.7 28.1 2.03 $57.04Target Price $66.54
• Risperdal (anti-psychotic) and Topamax (anti-epilepsy) come off patent
• No major new drugs until end of 2009 (Golimumab)
• Medical Devices: strong growth through DePuy orthopedic joint replacements
3/3/2009 16
OutlookSector Review LLY CAH & WLP RecommendationsJNJ
• Solid Performance in 2009– Good Dividend, AAA Bond Rating
• Currently 7.4% of SIM Portfolio• Recommendation: HOLD
3/3/2009 17
ActionSector Review LLY CAH & WLP RecommendationsJNJ
Eli Lilly (LLY)
3/3/2009 18
• Market Cap: $32.05B• Current Price: $27.75• P/E: N/A• EPS: -1.89• Div: 0.49 (6.90%)• Segments:
– Pharmaceuticals– Animal Health
3/3/2009 19
OverviewSector Review LLY CAH & WLP RecommendationsJNJ
Valuations – DCF Valuation
Terminal Discount Rate: 11.0% Terminal Value $67,417
Terminal FCF Growth: 3.0% NPV of Free Cash Flows $25,158 (51%)
NPV of Terminal Values $23,743 (49%)
Projected Equity Value $48,901
Shares Outstanding 1,090.8
Current Price $27.75
Implied Equity Value $44.83
Upside/(Downside) to DCF 61.5%
3/3/2009 20
Sector Review LLY CAH & WLP RecommendationsJNJ
Valuations - Multiples
3/3/2009 21
Absolute Valuation High Low Mean Current Target
MultipleTarget E, S, B, etc/Share
Target Price
P/Forward E 42.5 7.30 22.6 8.80 9.00 4.18 $37.62
P/S 11.84 1.63 5.59 1.98 3.00 20.21 $60.63
P/B 24.60 2.40 7.50 2.90 4.00 12.38 $49.52
P/EBITDA 32.40 7.60 17.80 9.20 10.00 5.28 $52.80
P/CF 41.00 6.30 20.00 7.40 8.00 5.04 $40.30
Target Price $42.00
Sector Review LLY CAH & WLP RecommendationsJNJ
Outlook
• Growth Factors– Acquisition of ImClone should provide
operations and cost synergies– Current neuroscience drugs are performing
quite well
• Key Concerns– Growing competitive environment– Lack of block-buster drug pipeline
3/3/2009 22
Sector Review LLY CAH & WLP RecommendationsJNJ
Actions
• SELL SIM position in LLY by 190 bps– Strong earnings growth– Main theme of the portfolio going forward is to
be more diversified across the industries in the Health Care sector
3/3/2009 23
Sector Review LLY CAH & WLP RecommendationsJNJ
Cardinal Health (CAH) &WellPoint (WLP)
3/3/2009 24
Cardinal Health (CAH) WellPoint (WLP)
3/3/2009 25
Price Performance (5 years)Sector Review LLY CAH & WLP RecommendationsJNJ
Valuations – Analyst Opinions
Price Target Summary CAH ($/Share) WLP ($/Share)
Mean Target 45.59 51.80
Median Target 46.00 51.50
High Target 50.00 61.00
Low Target 37.00 44.00
Number of Analysts 11 10
Current Stock Price(3/2/2009) 30.92 32.65
3/3/2009 26
Sector Review LLY CAH & WLP RecommendationsJNJ
Source: www.finance.yahoo.com – as of 2/27/2009
• Healthcare Supply Chain Services
– Delivers pharmaceutical and medical devices to pharmacies, hospitals etc
– 4% growth rate– 1.56% Profit margin
• Clinical Medical Products– Manufactures technologies and
services that help hospitals prevent medical errors
– 30% Growth Rate– 15.96% Profit Margin
3/3/2009 27
Overview CAHSector Review LLY CAH & WLP RecommendationsJNJ
Valuations – DCF Valuation (CAH)
3/3/2009 28
Sector Review LLY CAH & WLP RecommendationsJNJ
Current CAH CAH without Clinical & Medical Products
Shares Outstanding 364.0 Shares Outstanding 364.0
Current Price $30.92 Current Price $30.92
Implied Equity Value / Share $38.43 Implied Equity Value / Share $36.29
Upside/(Downside) to DCF 24% Upside/(Downside) to DCF 17%
Terminal Discount Rate: 12.5%Terminal FCF Growth: 2.5%
Outlook for CAH
• Key Growth Drivers:– Spinoff of Clinical and Medical Supplies from Healthcare
Supply Chain Services– Captured 1/3 of all distributed pharmaceutical products in
their supply chain– Strong growth in nuclear pharmacy
• Key Concerns– “In many ways we see fiscal ’09 as a transitional year for
Cardinal Health, where we put the foundation for future growth under both segments” –CEO R. Kerry Clark
– CVS and Walgreens accounted for 22% and 19% of the companies revenue in 2008 (CVS expires on 6/30)
– Lowered earnings outlook due to spending delays by hospitals
3/3/2009 29
Sector Review LLY CAH & WLP RecommendationsJNJ
Actions
• Eliminate our position in CAH– Negative outlook for the next 6-12 months– Restructuring will potentially affect earnings– Two customers equal 41% of business with one
contract expiring in 2009– General economic conditions are not conducive
to higher performance in the 6-12 month time frame
• Maintain position in WLP
3/3/2009 30
Sector Review LLY CAH & WLP RecommendationsJNJ
Recommendations
3/3/2009 31
Stock Recommendations
Medtronic (MDT)
3/3/2009 32
Sector Review LLY CAH & WLP RecommendationsJNJ
• Current Price: $27.22• Market Cap: 32.99
Billion• Revenue $13.5 Billion• P/E Ratio: 11.69• EPS: 2.53• Main Segments
– Cardiac Rhythm Management
– Spinal– Cardiovascular
3/3/2009 33
OverviewSector Review LLY CAH & WLP RecommendationsJNJ
Valuations – Analyst Opinions
Price Target Summary MDT ($/Share)
Mean Target 45.59
Median Target 46.00
High Target 50.00
Low Target 37.00
Number of Analysts 11
Current Stock Price(3/2/2009) 27.22
3/3/2009 34
Sector Review LLY CAH & WLP RecommendationsJNJ
Valuations – DCF Valuation
3/3/2009 35
Sector Review LLY CAH & WLP RecommendationsJNJ
MDT
Shares Outstanding 1142.0
Current Price $27.22
Implied Equity Value / Share $33.09
Upside/(Downside) to DCF 22%
Terminal Discount Rate: 11.0%Terminal FCF Growth: 3.0%
Valuations - Multiples
3/3/2009 36
Absolute Valuation High Low Mean Current Target
MultipleTarget E, S, B, etc/Share
Target Price
P/Forward E 55.5 9.7 28.4 10.8 14.00 3.21 $44.94
P/S 14.43 2.33 6.87 2.62 4.00 11.83 $47.32
P/EBITDA 44.5 8.7 22.3 9.0 15.00 3.00 $45.00
Target Price $40.00
Sector Review LLY CAH & WLP RecommendationsJNJ
Key Growth Drivers
• Cardiac Rhythm Management– EnRythm: first pace maker to include Managed Ventricular
Pacing. Reduces unnecessary pacing
• Spinal– CD Horizon Legacy Peek: provides stability and reduces stress
on spine. 10% growth compared to 2007
• Cardio-Vascular– Endeavor: first drug eluting stent approved by FDA since 2004.
30% increase in demand from 2007. Contributed $175 million in revenue
3/3/2009 37
Sector Review LLY CAH & WLP RecommendationsJNJ
Outlook
• Key Factors– $1.75 Billion in Cash and Short Term Investments
(purchased Ventor Technologies and CoreValve)– No customer represents over 10% of the companies
sales in 2008, 2007 or 2006– Strong position in heart, diabetes and spinal segments
• Concerns– Cutting executive pay 5% and freezing wages for all
employees in May
3/3/2009 38
Sector Review LLY CAH & WLP RecommendationsJNJ
3/3/2009 39
Comparative ChartsSector Review LLY CAH & WLP RecommendationsJNJ
1-year
5-year
Summary of Actions
Holding IndustryCurrent Price (2/27/2009)
Target Price(12 month) Action
Current Weight
Change in Weight
Resulting Weight
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Major Pharmaceuticals $47.92 $66.54 HOLD 7.4% N/C 7.4%
Eli Lilly Major Pharmaceuticals $29.38 $42.00 SELL 5.3% (1.9%) 3.4%
Cardinal Health Health Care Supplies $30.92 $45.94* SELL 5.2% (5.2%) 0%
WellPoint Health Care Services $32.65 $51.80* HOLD 4.2% N/C 4.2%
Medtronic Health Care Equipment $27.22 $40.00 BUY 0 4.0% 4.0%
SIM weighting in Health Care Sector 21.5% (2.5%) 19.0%
3/3/2009 40
* Based on Mean Analyst Target Price from www.finance.yahoo.com
Questions?
3/3/2009 41