Presentation To

Hampton Roads Transportation Planning Organization:

Passenger Rail Task Force

July 31, 2012

Hampton Roads Passenger Rail Study Data Collection

Phase 2A

Presentation By

Transportation Economics & Management Systems, Inc.

2TEMS, Inc.

Study Timeline

# Tasks1 Project Management

2 Monitor FRA Legislation and Executive Action

3 DRTP Coordination

4 Data Assembly

Market Database

Stated Preference Survey

Engineering Database

Technology Database

Environmental Database

5 Database Report

MEETINGSPRESENTATIONSMONTHLY PROGRESS REPORTS

M8 M13 M14 M15 M16M4 M5 M6 M7 M10 M11 M12

MONTHS

M1 M2 M3 M9

3TEMS, Inc.

Database Assembly

Work will continue on preparing the data for four databases:

1. Market Database2. Engineering Database3. Technology Database4. Environmental Database

4TEMS, Inc.

1. Market Database: The market database will consist of four components: Origin / Destination Data – Traffic movements by mode and purpose

(business, commuter, and other)

Socioeconomic Data – Population, Employment and Income by zone.

Network Data – Comprehensive modal networks will be developed for each mode of intercity travel (air, auto, rail and bus).

Stated Preference Data – To obtain local corridor behavioral factors (Values of Time, Frequency, Access/Egress, etc.) to use in evaluating market potential for high-speed rail.

5TEMS, Inc.

1. Market Database: Zone Map (333 zones)County Based and TAZ-based zones are developed for the Study area

6TEMS, Inc.

1. Market Database: Socioeconomic Database DevelopmentThe socioeconomic data that were developed for the study area havepopulation, employment, and income information of county-level, TAZ-level, and community-level data from the following sources:

U.S. Census Bureau

Bureau of Economic Analysis

Hampton Roads Transportation Planning Organization

Richmond Regional Planning District Commission

Crater Planning District Commission

Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments

Baltimore Metropolitan Council

Woods & Poole Economics

7TEMS, Inc.

1. Market Database: Networks

Networks were developed for four modes and three purposes

Source: Highway Networks from State and local Departments of Transportation highway databases and National highway databases,Bus Networks from bus service schedules (Greyhound, Megabus),Air Networks from airline schedules, the ten percent sample of airline tickets and OTP (on-time performance) data, andRail Networks from Amtrak schedules and Amtrak OTP (on-time performance) data.

Modes

Auto

Bus

Air Access

Rail

= 12 Networks

Purposes

Business

Commuter

OtherX

8TEMS, Inc.

1. Market Database: Auto Network• Highway Networks from State and local Departments of

Transportation highway databases and National highway databases

Boston, MA

New York, NY

Washington, DC

Richmond, VA

HRTPO Area

Charlotte, NC

9TEMS, Inc.

1. Market Database: O/D Trip DatabaseIntercity travel database was developed for auto, rail, bus, and airmodes from the following sources:

DB1B Air Ticket Database

T-100 Air Market and Segment Database

Greyhound and Megabus Schedules

Previous travel origin-destination surveys

State DOT highway traffic volume AADT data

Amtrak passenger rail ridership data

Amtrak station volume data

TEMS 2012 Virginia Travel Survey

10TEMS, Inc.

1. Market Database: O/D Trip Database –Travel Purpose and Mode Split Information 2011 Hampton Roads – Richmond corridor-based person trips

estimated: 42.37 million

Trip Purpose Split Trip Mode Split

11TEMS, Inc.

1. Market Database: Stated Preference (SP) Survey Area

12TEMS, Inc.

1. Market Database: SP Survey Deployment

On-Site Survey Team Actual Deployment & Online Survey Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun

11-May 12-May 13-May 14-May 15-May 16-May 17-May 18-May 19-May 20-MayNewport News-Richmond Amtrak ServiceRichmond Central Auto UsersChesapeake Auto UsersVirginia Beach Auto UsersNorfolk-BWI, Philadelphia, New York Air TravelersRichmond-Hampton Roads, Washington,DC Bus Service

Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri … … Wed Thu Fri30-Apr 1-May 2-May 3-May 4-May … … 6-Jun 7-Jun 8-Jun

Online Survey

13TEMS, Inc.

1. Market Database: SP Survey Counts per mode

Targets vs. Actuals

LocationSurvey Target

Field+online Count (Actual)

DMV 900 1,377Airport 500 573Amtrak 500 690Bus 100 96TOTAL 2,000 2,736

Air VOT504 Air VOF

478

Air VOA174

Auto VOT1,345

Bus195 Rail VOT

405

Rail VOF395

Rail VOA296

TOTAL of VOT’s, VOF’s & VOA’s for all modes = 3,792

14TEMS, Inc.

1. Market Database: Purpose of Travel and Distribution W.R.T Income groups

169

384

164

77 41

1901

Commuting to/from Work Business Trip Site Seeing Travel to/from School Shopping Other

“Other” as indicated by the respondents include, visit family/friends, graduation, baseball game, etc.

Purpose of Travel ResponsesDistribution of Average Number of

Households by Income Groups: Survey Response Vs. Survey Area Demographics*

16%23%

33%28%11%

17%

29% 30%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Less than$25,000

$25,000 –$49,999

$50,000 -$99,999

$100,000 ormore

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

Survey Area Demographic DistributionSurvey Response Distribution

Above graph shows that all the income groups were effectively represented.*Unknown Income response was 12%.

15TEMS, Inc.

1. Market Database: Employment Type Responses

1602

206

97

496

72243

160

Employed Fulltime/Part-time Student Not Employed Military Personnel Veteran Retired Other

16TEMS, Inc.

1. Market Database: Results of VOT, VOF and VOA Matrices

VOA MATRIXTrip Purpose

Mode Business Commuter SocialBus - $8.89 $10.77Rail $42.73 $29.15 $37.66

Air Access $62.91 - $47.94

VOT Matrix VOF MatrixMode Trip Purpose Trip Purpose

Business Commuter Social Business Commuter SocialAuto $19.42 $14.80 $16.88Bus $11.07 $7.15 $8.54 $7.33 $6.50 $7.75Rail $22.51 $18.80 $17.88 $18.58 $13.67 $16.13Air

Access$44.45 _ $31.76 $28.81 _ $26.28

Note: Results are well within the range of previous studies such as Bay Bridge, and Rocky Mountain Rail Authority(RMRA).

17TEMS, Inc.

1. Market Database: Survey Completed with help of following organizations

Business Person of Contact

Department of Motor VehiclesMr. Richard D. Holcomb, Commissioner, Ms. Myrt Quinlan, Deputy Director of CSMA, andThelma Drake, DRPT

Amtrak Mr. Paul Higgs,

Norfolk International Airport Mr. Charles W. Braden, Director if Market Development

Megabus Bryony Chamberlain, Director and Mr. Derrick Kazimierski, Operations Manager

Virginia Beach Vision, Inc. Ms. Martha S. McClee, Executive Director

Greater Williamsburg Chamber & Tourism Alliance Mr. Dick Schreiber

Hampton Roads Economic Development Alliance (HREDA) Steve Harrison, M.P.P., Research Director

U.S. Navy Rear Admiral T.G. Alexander and Ms. Wendy Vachet

Thank you!

18TEMS, Inc.

2. Technology Database: LOCOMOTION™ will estimate Train Speeds and Timetables

LOCOMOTION™ generates optimized timetables for given track infrastructure, signaling systems, and train technologies. It provides milepost‐by‐milepost graphic output of train performance based on track characteristics and shows the effect on timetables for improving the track, using a different technology, or changing stopping patterns. Because it takes account of other passenger and freight traffic using a right‐of‐way, LOCOMOTION™ can develop stringline diagrams and identify the optimum train path for a new service. 

19TEMS, Inc.

2. Technology Database: Proposed System Development Steps

Steps Route Max Speed No. of Trains Infrastructure Station

Step 1

I-64/CSXT 79 mph 2 Shared Track Schedule Enhancement

Main StreetNewport News

(existing)

Route 460/ Norfolk Southern 79 mph 1-3 Shared Track

NS Staples Mill Only

Norfolk

Step 2 (DEIS Alt 1)

I-64/CSXT

79 mph 3 Shared Track Main Street

Newport News (existing)

Route 460/ Norfolk Southern 79-90 mph 4-6 Shared Track

V Line Main Street Bowers Hill

Step 3

I-64/CSXT 90 mph 4-6 Shared Track Main Street

Newport News Downtown/Airport

Route 460/ Norfolk Southern

110 mph 8-12 Dedicated Track

V Line Main Street Bowers Hill

Step 4

I-64/CSXT

110 mph 6-9 Dedicated Track Main Street

Newport News Downtown/Airport

Route 460/ Norfolk Southern 150 mph 12-16 Dedicated Electric Track

V Line Main Street Bowers Hill

DRP

T Focus

High Speed Ra

il Focus

20TEMS, Inc.

2. Technology Database: Conventional Corridor ServiceConventional Amtrak

Business Model of Conventional Amtrak corridor serviceConventional Diesel Locomotives based on adapted Freight designs Non-Tilting Single or Bi-Level Passenger Cars Existing Freight Rail Lines with minimal geometric improvements Speeds generally 79-mph or less Corresponds to Steps 1 and 2

21TEMS, Inc.

2. Technology Database: Higher-Speed Shared Use

Diesel HrST

Business Model of the Proposed Midwest Regional Rail SystemLow Center of Gravity Diesel Locomotives, and Tilting Single Level Passenger Cars can take effective advantage of infrastructure improvements Existing Freight Rail Lines with some geometric improvementsSpeeds up to 110-mph on tracks shared with freight trains* Corresponds to Step 3* NS Policy limits passenger speeds to 79-mph on NS-owned tracks

22TEMS, Inc.

2. Technology Database: High-Speed Shared Use

Electric Incremental HST Business Model of the Existing Northeast Corridor (NEC)Speeds up to 150-mph on tracks shared with freight trains Low Center of Gravity Electric Locomotives for reducing track forces going around curves Tilting Single Level Passenger Cars for Higher Speed and Passenger Comfort Upgraded Freight Rail Lines with some geometric improvements Short-term Option for Step 4

23TEMS, Inc.

2. Technology Database: High-Speed Dedicated

Electric Greenfield HST Business Model of California HSR and proposed NEC Vision PlanSpeeds up to 220-mph on dedicated high speed tracks; in urban areas, tracks may be shared with freight and other trains at a lower speed* Integrated electric trains; tilt may still be beneficial on conventional shared track segments. New Greenfield Alignments needed Long-term Option for Step 4 (Amtrak plans to start acquiring these trains for NEC after 2020)

* Under existing regulation, this equipment cannot share tracks with freight trains except under temporal separation

24TEMS, Inc.

2. Technology Database: Amtrak NEC Equipment StrategyNew HSR Trains Starting in 2020Acela Trains Gone by 2025

25TEMS, Inc.

2. Technology Database: Range of Technologies to be Assessed

Electric Incremental HST

110 mph + Step 3 Diesel Tilting Existing

Alignment

125 mph + Step 4 Short Term Electric Tilting Existing + New

Alignment

125 mph + Step 4 Long Term Electric May be Tilting New Alignment

Electric Greenfield HSTDiesel HrST

26TEMS, Inc.

2. Technology Database: Comparative Train Acceleration CurvesShows very similar High Speed train performance, up to the design speed for each technology.

0

50

100

150

200

250

0 5 10 15 20

Spee

d (m

ph)

Miles

220-mph HST

150-mph Acela

130-mph Talgo

27TEMS, Inc.

3. Engineering Database Establish Concept Engineering and Cost Data for the corridor.

Specific survey of right-of-way widths on existing railroads to determine the potential for developing Greenfield corridors.

Develop route database in TRACKMAN™ program

The TRACKMAN™ Track Management System will provide a milepost-by-milepost record of the

rail gradients,

track geometry and characteristics of the track (double track, crossings, etc.) and

right-of-way.

Field review of routes

Develop engineering cost data

28TEMS, Inc.

3. Engineering Database: TRACKMAN™ develop detailed information on each route

Key inputs: Speeds, curves, grades, rail and highway crossings, and other potential speed restrictions such as moveable bridges.

All the data is being captured in a consistent computerized format, to facilitate train performance and future line capacity evaluation.

Sample NS Petersburg Data

29TEMS, Inc.

4. Environmental Database: Service NEPA- Planning Document Purpose:

− Evaluate revised routes

Steps to complete for Service NEPA− Route analysis− Environmental Analysis− Public Involvement Process (Stakeholders)

Difference between NEPA and Service NEPA:− Service NEPA steps are same as NEPA but with landscape level

of data collection and analysis.

30TEMS, Inc.

4. Environmental Database: Service NEPA

Service NEPA is the LANDSCAPE LEVEL data collection, followed by TIER I with site-specific impact analysis.

Uses Tier I EIS and direct route survey to evaluate the information required for the Environmental Review and Assessment needed for the Service Development Plan and Vision Plan.

Sources: • Service NEPA Environmental Assessment Chicago-Detroit/Pontiac Rail Corridor

Improvements From Chicago, Illinois to Pontiac, Michigan by Michigan DOT.

• NEPA Guidance: Compliance With The National Environmental Policy Act In Implementing The High-Speed Intercity Passenger Rail Program

• US Census Bureau 2009 TIGER/ Line Shapefiles, Virginia Department of Conservation and Recreation, United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service, National Park Service U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Fish and Wild life Service, Natural Heritage, Virginia Department of Forestry, etc.

31TEMS, Inc.

4. Environmental Database: NEPA Sample Map (Conservation Lands)

32TEMS, Inc.

Thank You

33TEMS, Inc.

Additional Information

34TEMS, Inc.

1. Market Database: COMPASS™

Model StructureBase YearSocio-Economics

DemandModelCalibration

Base YearMatrix

RailStrategies

TravelDemandModel Run

FinancialAnalysis

UserBenefitAnalysis

EconomicRentAnalysis

TransportNetwork

Origin-DestinationData

TripMatrices

StatedPreferenceSurvey

EconomicScenarios

ForecastYear TripMatrices

RevenueAnalysis

Data Obtained

Income

Employment

Population

35TEMS, Inc.

1. Market Database: Sound and Comprehensive Database

Business

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

CommuterOther (social + tourism)

“Using MPO and Stated Preference Data to create a sound behavioral database for passenger rail planning”

36TEMS, Inc.

1. Market Database: Socioeconomic Projections- Study Area

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2010 2011 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Gro

wth

Per

cent

age

Year

EmploymentsPer Capita IncomePopulation

Annual Average Growth Rate from 2010 - 2050

+1.05%

+1.00%

+0.65%

37TEMS, Inc.

1. Market Database: Value of Time (VOT) and Value of Frequency (VOF)

VOT – the amount of money (dollars/hour) an individual is willing to pay to save a specified amount of travel time.

VOF – the amount of money (dollars/hour) an individual is willing to pay to reduce the time between departures when traveling on public transportation. 

38TEMS, Inc.

1. Market Database: Value of Access (VOA)

VOA – the amount of money (dollars/hour) an individual is willing to pay for the access time to a mode (e.g. the airport, HSR station, railroad station, bus station) to gain easier access to someplace (airport). 

Easier Access with

Least transfers

39TEMS, Inc.

1. Market Database: Results are Applied by Mode and Purpose to ensure Appropriate Travel Behavior Auto

Bus

Rail

Air Access

Different VOT’s are Applied to each Matrix depending on Mode and Trip Purpose

VOF’s and VOA’s are also applied in similar way

VOT MATRIX

Trip PurposeMode Business Commuter OthersAuto $xx.xx $xx.xx $xx.xxBus $xx.xx $xx.xx $xx.xxRail $xx.xx $xx.xx $xx.xx

Air Access $xx.xx $xx.xx $xx.xx

Tourist

Business

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

CommuterSocial

Tourist

Business

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

CommuterSocial

Tourist

Business

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

CommuterSocial

Tourist

Business

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

CommuterSocial

40TEMS, Inc.

4. Environmental Database: Service NEPA- Data Collection ListData Element

• Geographic Boundaries of:State, County, Census tract, Census Block Group, City, MPO, MSA, Congressional Districts, Community Facilities

• Cultural Resources: Parks, Wildlife Refuge, Heritage preserves, Archaeology resources, Historical resources, Federal lands, etc.

• Ecology:Wetlands, Hydric Soils, Streams, Waters of US, State waters, Federally protected species, State protected Species, Critical stream habitats, Migratory bird habitat, floodplain encroachment/impacts, coastal zone encroachments

• Existing land use:Number of cities, towns and communities, Environmental Justice Impacts, Land cover, Farmland

• Hazardous Materials

• Natural Resources:Energy Use (BTU), Mines/geological features

• Potential Relocations:Residential, Commercial/Industrial, Institutional

• Crossings:Utilities, Road, Stream, Rail

• Railroad impacts and air quality, Noise/Vibration, Transport system interactions and impacts, Utility and related services interactions and impacts

41TEMS, Inc.

4. Environmental Database: Service NEPA- Mapping Sources for Study area

Data Element Source

Geographic Boundaries: US Census Bureau: 2009 TIGER/ Line Shapefiles and Virginia Department GIS

Cultural Resources: Virginia Department of Conservation and Recreation,

United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service

National Park Service U.S. Department of the Interior

U.S. Fish and Wild life Service

Natural Heritage

Virginia Department of Forestry

Ecology:Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries

Crossings:Utilities, Road, Stream, Rail Virginia Department of Transportation

Railroad impacts and air quality, Noise/Vibration, Transport system interactions and impacts, Utility and related services interactions and impacts

Richmond to Hampton Roads Passenger Rail Study, Tier I Environmental Impact Statement, Virginia DRPT.

Hazardous Materials Virginia Department of Environmental Quality