Gut Feelings in the Desert:Antoine De St. Exupery and the Dragon Fly

I shaved carefully in a cracked mirror. From time to time I went to the door and looked at the naked sand. … I was thoughtful. … For the moment everything was all right. But I heard something sizzling. It was a dragonfly knocking against the lamp. Why it was I cannot say, but I felt a twinge in my heart.

I went outdoors and looked round. The air was pure. … Over the desert reigned a vast silence as of a house in order. But here were a green butterfly and two dragonflies knocking against my lamp. Again I felt a dull ache which might as easily have been joy as fear, but came up from the depths of me.

St. Exupery in the Desert, continued

Something was calling to me from a great distance. Was it instinct?

Once again I went out. The wind had died down completely. The air was still cool. But I had received a warning. I guessed, I believed I could guess, what I was expecting.

I climbed a dune and sat down face to the east. If I was right, the thing would not be long in coming. What were they after here, those dragonflies, hundreds of miles from their oases inland?

St. Exupery in the Desert

Wreckage thrown up upon the beach bears witness to a storm at sea. Even so did these insects declare to me that a sand storm was on the way, a storm out of the east that had blown them out of their oases.

Solemnly, for it was fraught with danger, the east wind rose. … But that was not what excited. What filled me with a barbaric joy was …that I had been able to read the anger of the desert in the beating wings of a dragonfly.

St. Exupery, A. (1939). Wind, sand, and stars.

EVOLUTION OF PROBLEM STATEMENT

I. I’m about to fly across the Sahara, I’ve done it a 100 times, but something is bugging me. What?

2. Those insects bumping against my lamp are bothering me. How come?

3. Wait a second! I'm in the middle of the barren Sahara; what are a moth and a dragonfly doing out here?

4. What would it take to transport insects hundreds of miles from their native environment? Now put this into a succinct problem statement:

5. Does the presence of insects in the remote barren desert indicate the advent of a windstorm?

TRANSFORMING A PROBLEM STATEMENT INTO A HYPOTHESIS

“The arrival of live insects within the desert interior is a precursor of high winds.” What does St. Exupery do to test this hypothesis?

FORMS OF HYPOTHESES

"A" = Bugs"B" = Sandstorms "C" = Location

aridness"D" = Windy season

I. A B

I. A B II. (A X B) C: III. AB if D:

Bugs are related to sandstorms

Bugs predict sandstorms

Bugs & location aridness predict sandstorms

Bugs predict sandstorms IF windy season has started

RELATION BETWEEN THEORY AND HYPOTHESES

Example of Theory: Time Perspective (Zimbardo & Boyd, 1999):

People systematically differ in how they subjectively order time into past, present, and future.

In other words, people can be characterized as “present oriented”, or “future oriented”.

Hypotheses that Derive from Time Perspective Theory

Theory:

People differ in time perspectives, and this shapes their behavior.

General Hypothesis

Future Oriented (FO) people are better at meeting time demands than are (PO). Experimental Hypotheses FO will sign up for experiments sooner than PO.

Science and Facilitated Communication

Science

Hypotheses arise form emotional problem, feeling of un-ease

Problem statement

Hypothesis statement, presented in falsifiable form

Experiment framed

Facilitated Communication Studies

Prosecutor worried about veracity of FC. OD Heck want to show that FC works

“… were these communications coming from the autistic children?”

If FC real, then it should work when the facilitator is blind to what the child sees.

Facilitator and child see same vs. diff. pics; how is performance affected?

Framing of Facilitated Communication Experiments

Kid Sees

Facilitator Sees 

Cup Dog

Cup

I

II 

Dog

 

III

IV

1. Which are the criterion cells?

2. If FC is valid, what are facilitator's responses in criterion cells?

X

X

Science and Facilitated Communication

Science

Conduct objective, varied, and replicable tests

New hypothesis: FC a sham, new discrepancies become evident.

New hypothesis has powerful social consequences

Serendipity (unexpected discovery)

FC Validation Studies

Double blind study; pix naming, mesg. passing, eyes on keypad

Kids type w/o looking at keypad; why autistics so verbally skilled? Why so many abuse cases?

Devastates believers; liberates kids, redeems "abusers"

Unconscious drives overt behavior; Freud. What is "will"? D. Wegner

Null Hypotheses

Defined: Null hyp. states that there is no relation between variables.

Examples: Class size is not related to performance

The sexes do not differ in aggression.

Bugs don’t predict sandstorms

Proper and Improper Use of Null HypothesisProper use of null hypothesis:

As a contrast, foil, to hyp. we want to confirm

H1: Smaller classes improved performance

Ho: Smaller classes unrelated to performance

Improper use of null hyp: As the object of research

H1: Smaller classes are unrelated to performance

Problems in trying to confirm null hyp:

1. Confirmation could be due to actual absence of effect

OR

2. Confirmation could occur b/c study improperly done.

MULTIVARIABLE VS. MULTIVARIATE RESEARCH

1. Multivariable: More than one causal variable but only one outcome variable:

EXAMPLE: School climate (leadership, teacher morale, level of violence) affects student’s test scores.

2. Multivariate: More than one causal variable and more than one outcome variable.

EXAMPLE: School climate (leadership, teacher morale, level of violence) affects students’ school

performance (test scores, discipline, attendance).

Univariate vs. Multivariable Research Univariate Research: One predictor variable and one outcome variable. Univariate is better designed to ask questions about whether certain things occur. Example: Does race of writer (Black vs. White) affect quality of feedback? (i.e., Is there a feedback bias?) Multivariable Research: Two or more predictor variables and one outcome variable. Multivariable research permits investigation into underlying causes. Example: Does race of writer (Black vs. White) affect quality of feedback, due to degree of social risk (high vs. low)? (i.e., is there a racial bias, and is it caused by perceived risk?)

Variables

Class 6

Knowing Concepts, Nomenclature, and Definitions

Your MD Understands: "hygiene", "contaminant", "microbial"

Your MD performs professionally, follows best

practices

YES

NO

YES NO

A B

C D

Which conditions do you find satisfactory? Why?

CONCEPTS, CONSTRUCTS, AND VARIABLES

Concept: An abstraction formed by generalizing from particulars.

Examples: Attention, Emotion, Learning, Prejudice

Construct: A concept that:

1. Allows for objective observation. * Can be measured (i.e., pounds, years, tears)* Can be described in terms of explicit, replicable operations (place subject on scale, gather birth date from drivers’ license, OR* Built on other constructs that are themselves based on operations.

2. Relates theoretically to other constructs * Built upon other constructs: (empathy = perspective taking + imagination) * A building block for other constructs: (empathy emotional intelligence)

3. Defined distinctly [Kent’s add-on]* “Trust = “believe w/o questioning” = gullibility = dependency = trust?

CONCEPTS THAT ARE NOT CONSTRUCTS: Heaven, Luck, Kharma

Intriguing, fascinating, provocative question: Is “hope” a concept or construct?

Concept or Construct?

Fitness Heart rate Health Reaction time Stress Resilience

Concept Construct Concept

Concept Concept

Construct

Concept to Construct to Variable

Prejudice =

Hostility toward minorities =

Physical distance

during conversation =

Concept

Construct

Variable

Variables

Concepts that have a range of values, such that X > 1

“Heaven” has no range, not a variable

“Church attendance” has a range, is a variable

Observable and measurable

“Love” is not observable

“Eye gazing” is observable

Form building blocks of constructs

“Size” is construct

“Inches” is variable

Qualitative and Quantitative Variables

Qualitative

Dichotomous, polychotomous

All numeric values of equal normative value

Examples Gender, race, blind vs. don’t blind Ghack boy

Quantitative

Continuous—take on a range of values

Numeric values represent more/less of attribute

Examples No. pos. feedback comments, feedback ratings

Operationalization

Steps, or “operations” taken to measure or create a variable.

Measured: Variable defined in terms of how it is measured

Francois: “Height, she is ze number of centimeters.”

Frank: “Height is the number of inches, by crackie!”

Experimental: Expt’l steps taken to create variable Confed. temperament = eye contact, voice tone, smiles/stares

What are operationalizations for “stress”, for “aggression”?

Value of Operationalization?

1. Enforces mental rigor; forces evaluation of assumptions.

2. Provides uniformly understood meanings 3. Helps to resolve discrepancies in science.

OPERATIONAL DEFINITIONS OF FEEDBACK VARIABLES

Variable

Feedback

Friendliness of recipient

Definition

No. of positive and negative comments

Rating sheet responses

Smiles, forward leaning, head nods, voice tone.

OPERATIONAL DEFINITIONS OF FEEDBACK

STUDY 

DEFINITION OF FEEDBACK NATURE OF BIAS

Byalick & Bersoff, 1970

Physical contact, warmth, acceptance

Positive

Harber, 1998 Number of positive and negative comments on written work.

Positive

Massey, Scott, & Dornbusch, 1975

Match between student reports on teacher-feedback, and student’s grades.

Positive

Word, Zanna & Cooper, 1974

Non-verbal social cues Negative

Note: Diff. operational definitions can be associated with different outcomes.

TODAY’S CONTROVERSIAL QUESTION

Should psychology concern itself ONLY with constructs?

Are the following outside the realm of experimental psychology?

Free will Magic

Happiness Miracles

Love at first sight Prayer

Intuition

CONSITUTIVE AND OBSERVABLE VARIABLES

Constitutive Observable

Health Weight, blood pressure, temperature

SES Income, education

Intelligence Verbal skills, math skills, visual skills, social skills

Relation Between Operational and

Constituent Variables

( r > 0 )

C 1

C 2

C 3

D.O.

D.O.

Copy-edit comments

Rating Sheet

Feedback Bias

Note: D.O. = "Directly Observable"

Experiments as Expressions of Hypotheses

Most General Hypothesis 

Interracial feedback is biased.

General Hypothesis 

Feedback from whites to blacks is positively biased.

Specific Hypothesis 

When whites provide performance feedback for sub-standard work, their feedback will be positively biased if they believe that the feedback recipient is black rather than white. 

Experimental Hypothesis 

White undergraduates instructed to critique poorly written essays for purposes of feedback will provide more positive feedback if informed that the essay writer is black rather than white.

Diagramming the Experimental Sentence

Construct

White undergraduate students

instructed to critique

poorly written essays

for … feedback

will provide more positive feedback if

informed that the writer is Black rather than White

Operational Definition

Students who identify themselves as White, not Hispanic, on a survey.

write comments on spelling, content, etc. on the essay

essays contain 5 spelling errors, 14 grammar errors, 5 content errors

subjects’ copy edited comments on essays are supposedly returned to the writer

no. of positive comments – no. of neg. comments

subjects read “self description sheet” supposedly completed by writer that indirectly indicates race, and confirmed by post-expt. manipulation check.

Lending a Hand: Social Regulation of the Neural Response to Threat

[Coan, J., Schaefer, H., & Davidson, R., (2006) Psych. Science, 17, 1032-1039]

...For this fMRI study, 16 married women were subjected to the threat of electric shock while holding their husband’s hand, the hand of an anonymous male experimenter, or no hand at all. Results indicated an attenuation of activation [in systems regulating threat] when women held their husband’s hand. Most strikingly, the effects of spousal hand-holding on neural threat varied as a function of marital quality ... .

What’s the hypothesis? What are the constructs, the IV, the DV, the operations?

Attributes and Aliases of IV and DV

Independent Variable (IV)

Dependent Variable (DV)

Cause

Antecedent

Event that E. controls or selects

Change in “X”

Effect

Consequent

Event that E. tries to predict

Change in “Y”

Examples of Independent and Dependent Variables

Independent Variable Dependent Variable

Race of feedback partners Feedback bias

Social context Moral choices

(NY vs. Ghakistan)

NOTE: IV can be DV can be IV

IV DV

Group pressure Conformity

Conformity Feedback bias

Active vs. Attributive Variables

Active (manipulated): Variables that are manipulated by the experimenter

Friendliness of the confederate

Quality of essay

Attributive (measured): Variables that cannot be manipulated, but are inherent properties.

AKA "organismic variables."

Gender of confederate

Age of subject

Latent VariablesLatent variables are variables that cannot be directly

measured.

Latent variables are “emergent” – they arise from the joint association of more particular, measurable variables.

Latent variables are sometimes referred to as “factors”

Factor analysis is method used to discover and confirm latent variables.

Latent Variables in Feedback Study:

Essay Mechanics = ??????

????? = Development of argument, clarity of ideas, quality of evidence, interestingpresentation, persuasive

Latent Variables in Feedback Study: Mechanics vs. Content

Mechanics: Spelling, grammar, word choice

Content: Development of argument, clarity of ideas, quality of evidence, interestingpresentation, persuasive

SPSS Factor Analysis Results

Factor Loadings of Two Factor Measure: Social Support Opinion Survey

Social Support Opinion Survey (Harber, et al., JASP, 38, 1463-1505)

Hope Scale (Snyder et al., 1991, JPSP, 60, 570-585)