Gateway Local Learning Employment Network Suite 13, Town ......5 There are almost 300 main street businesses located in the precincts of Bulleen Plaza, Donburn, Doncaster East Village/Devon

Gateway Local Learning Employment Network Suite 13, Town Hall Hub |27 Bank Street |Box Hill |VIC |3128 P: 9285 4844

E: [email protected]

W: www.gatewayllen.com.au

February 2019 © Gateway Local Learning and Employment Network

Compiled by MCa <Michael Connell & Assocs.>

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.gatewayllen.com.au/

http://www.gatewayllen.com.au/

Contents Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................................................. 1 1. Introduction............................................................................................................................................................... 10 2. Regional Economy ................................................................................................................................................... 11

2.1 Region Overview ..................................................................................................................................................... 11 2.2 Population ............................................................................................................................................................... 18

2.2.1 Gateway LLEN Region .................................................................................................................................................................................... 18 2.2.2 Population by Age Groups ............................................................................................................................................................................... 20 2.2.3 Population by Service Groups ......................................................................................................................................................................... 22

2.3 Population Projections ............................................................................................................................................ 23 2.3.1 Total Population ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 23 2.3.2 Population by Service Age Groups .................................................................................................................................................................. 24 2.3.3 Population Projections – Young Persons ........................................................................................................................................................ 25

2.4 Jobs in the Region .................................................................................................................................................. 26 2.4.1 Gateway LLEN Region .................................................................................................................................................................................... 26 2.4.2 Job Trends 2011-16 ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 30 2.4.3 Manningham LGA ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 33 2.4.4 Monash LGA .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 35 2.4.5 Whitehorse LGA............................................................................................................................................................................................... 36

2.5 Unemployment in the Region ................................................................................................................................ 38 2.6 Employment Trends .............................................................................................................................................. 40

2.6.1 Gateway LLEN Region .................................................................................................................................................................................... 40 2.6.2 Manningham LGA ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 43 2.6.3 Monash LGA .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 44 2.6.4 Whitehorse LGA............................................................................................................................................................................................... 45

2.7 Employed Residents.............................................................................................................................................. 46 2.7.1 Gateway LLEN Region .................................................................................................................................................................................... 46 2.7.2 Manningham LGA ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 49 2.7.3 Monash LGA .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 50 2.7.4 Whitehorse LGA............................................................................................................................................................................................... 51

2.8 Schooling and Qualifications ................................................................................................................................. 52 2.8.1 Highest Year of School Completed ................................................................................................................................................................. 52 2.8.2 Highest Year of School Completed - Male/Female ......................................................................................................................................... 54 2.8.3 Young People and School Completions .......................................................................................................................................................... 54 2.8.4 Post School Qualifications ............................................................................................................................................................................... 57 2.8.5 Field of Study ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 66

3 Employment Demand ............................................................................................................................................... 69 3.1 Employment - Australia ......................................................................................................................................... 69

3.1.1 Overview .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 69 3.1.2 Employment by Industry .................................................................................................................................................................................. 70 3.1.3 Employment of Young People ......................................................................................................................................................................... 71 3.1.4 Industry Outlook ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 71 3.1.5 Employment by Occupation ............................................................................................................................................................................ 74

3.2 Employment - Victoria ........................................................................................................................................... 77 3.2.1 Overview .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 77 3.2.2 Victorian Job Trends ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 77 3.2.3 Jobs Outlook .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 78

3.3 Greater Melbourne Area ........................................................................................................................................ 79 3.3.1 Jobs in Greater Melbourne .............................................................................................................................................................................. 79 3.3.2 Occupations ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 82

3.4 Employment – Gateway LLEN Region .................................................................................................................. 83 3.4.1 Comparison Gateway LLEN region and Greater Melbourne .......................................................................................................................... 83 3.4.2 Industry Trends – Key Sectors ........................................................................................................................................................................ 84 3.4.3 Key Sectors – Gateway LLEN region .............................................................................................................................................................. 86

3.5 Education and Employment Outcomes ................................................................................................................. 93 3.5.1 Education and Jobs ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 93 3.5.2 Skill Shortages ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 94

4 Community & Family ................................................................................................................................................ 95 4.1 Household Structure ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 95

4.2 Family Income ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 96 5 Young People ......................................................................................................................................................... 100

5.1 Student Population ................................................................................................................................................ 100 5.1.1 Young People in the Gateway LLEN region .................................................................................................................................................. 100 5.1.2 Student Population Projections ..................................................................................................................................................................... 102

6 Education and Training .......................................................................................................................................... 103 6.1 Learning and Attainment.................................................................................................................................. 103 6.2 Schooling Completed ....................................................................................................................................... 103 6.3 Post-School Qualifications ............................................................................................................................. 105 6.4 Disadvantaged Priority Groups ...................................................................................................................... 110

6.4.1 Disengaged Youth ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 110 6.4.2 CALD Youth and Refugees ........................................................................................................................................................................... 112 6.4.3 Indigenous Population ................................................................................................................................................................................... 112 6.4.4 Special Needs Students ................................................................................................................................................................................ 113

6.5 On Track Data - Gateway LLEN Region 2018 ............................................................................................... 113 6.5.1 Year 12 Completers ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 113 6.5.2 Early School Leavers ................................................................................................................................................................................... 118 6.5.3 Careers Advice ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 120 6.5.4 Post School Enrolments ............................................................................................................................................................................. 120

7 Employment of Young People ................................................................................................................................ 122 7.1 Employment in Gateway LLEN Region ............................................................................................................... 122 7.2 Manningham LGA ............................................................................................................................................... 123 7.3 Monash LGA ....................................................................................................................................................... 125 7.4 Whitehorse LGA ................................................................................................................................................... 126

References ....................................................................................................................................................................... 129 Appendix A: Gateway LLEN Region Schools – On Track Survey Data 2018 .................................................................. 130 Appendix B: School Programs and Achievement Data .................................................................................................... 132

Gateway Local Learning and Employment Network (LLEN) is one 31 Victorian LLENs. The goal of the LLENs is to improve outcomes for young people, 10 – 19 years old, by increasing opportunities for their participation, attainment and successful transitions in education, training or employment. The partnerships are designed to address barriers faced by young people in a strategic and self-sustaining way, often tackling long term social and structural issues, which have been difficult for schools and communities to address.

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Executive Summary This report provides an environmental scan of the Manningham, Monash and Whitehorse LGAs from both an economic and community perspective. The report examines factors affecting young people in the region and their future education, training and employment outcomes.

A. Gateway LLEN Region The Gateway LLEN Region comprises three eastern local government areas - Manningham, Monash and Whitehorse, and extends from the north east (Manningham) to the south east (Monash). The region is a major population centre and has a significant industry base, with specialisations in: advanced manufacturing; wholesale/distribution; health services; education (including universities and TAFE institutes); and retail and other services for a large regional population.

• Population – a total regional population of 494,351 in 2017 up by 36,938 (8.1% increase) on 2012 levels.

• A total of 49,854 businesses, with 18,957 being businesses with employees.

• Jobs - a total of 203, 902 jobs are located in the region (2016). Overall job numbers increased by 28,568 or 16.3% in the period 2011-2016, as growth in service sector jobs (in particular growth in health services and education sector jobs), have offset by a significant decline in local jobs in manufacturing industry.1

• Employed residents - a total of 207,896 residents were in employment in 2016, with many residents commuting to jobs in other local government areas, including Melbourne City. This is particularly the case for Manningham LGA residents.

• Regional unemployment rate of 4.8% (12,850 persons) in June 2016. Unemployment rates

have decreased over the last 3 years.2

• Education (2016) - a total of 149,084 residents of the region were in education and training including: 7395 in pre-school; 34,303 in primary school; 29,969 in secondary school; 7998 in TAFE; 42,769 in a university; 4715 in other types of education; and 21,935 not specified.3

The region constitutes a major urban labour market with significant movements as workers commuted to their jobs in other LGAs and residents from other areas work in the LGAs.

A.1 Manningham LGA In summary, Manningham has a local service economy; it has few large employers; and a high percentage of employed residents (73%) commute to jobs outside of the LGA (including adjacent LGAs and the Melbourne CBD). Manningham is accessible to the activity and jobs that are located in the adjacent Whitehorse LGA.

• Manningham LGA is a much different area in comparison with Monash and Whitehorse LGAs in terms of population and settlement patterns and the local industry scale and mix of jobs.

• There are relatively few local jobs (only 28,951 jobs with total employed residents of 74,705) and a large part of the resident workforce (73%) commutes to jobs in the Melbourne CBD and

in other adjacent areas.4

• The largest sector of employment is retail with 5428 jobs or 18.8% of local employment. This

largely reflects Westfield Doncaster together with the other smaller retail precincts in the LGA.5

• Other significant areas of employment include automobile sales and servicing.

• Accommodation and food services accounted for 2450 jobs (covering pubs, cafes, restaurants and food courts).

• Business and professional services are largely comprised of smaller service businesses and medium sized businesses located in the Doncaster area.

• Construction accounted for 2412 jobs and many of these are small tradesperson businesses and others reflect residential construction in the area.

• There are few industrial areas in the LGA and Manningham only had 713 manufacturing jobs (2.5 % of jobs in the LGA and only 5% of total manufacturing jobs in the 3 LGAs). Most of these jobs are in small scale light industrial activities.

1 ABS Census 2016, Working Population Profile . This is the latest data on jobs which is available at a local government area level . 2 Small Area Labour Markets-June 2018, Department of Jobs & Small Business (September 2018), Smoothed Unemployment no. 3 ABS Census 2016 , General Community Profile (resident data). Table G15 Type of Educational Institution Attending (full and part –time). 4 http://profile.id.com.au/manningham/workers 2016 5 There are almost 300 main street businesses located in the precincts of Bulleen Plaza, Donburn, Doncaster East Village/Devon Plaza, Jackson Court, Macedon Square and Plaza, Park Orchards, Templestowe Village, Tunstall Square and Warrandyte. Technology Builds Your Business Manningham Business Survey – Key Findings – September 2013, Manningham Business

http://profile.id.com.au/manningham/workers

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• Between 2011 and 2016 most of the local jobs growth was in the services sector: health, education, retail and business services.

A.2 Monash LGA Monash LGA has a much broader base of industry than the other Gateway LLEN LGAs. Compared with the other areas it has a greater number of larger businesses. It is also is a major centre for businesses that are servicing national and international markets, and is home to a number of major international companies.

• While being a major residential area, Monash LGA has significant concentrations of employment, particularly in manufacturing, retail, education and health. The main industrial/business precincts areas are located in Clayton, Huntingdale, Mulgrave, Notting Hill and Oakleigh.

• Monash LGA has a much broader base of industry than the other two Gateway LLEN LGAs and has 105,796 jobs in 7942 businesses with employees (2016).

• Retail centres are located Glen Waverley (Centro- The Glen and Century City Walk) and Oakleigh and several other significant centres (Centro Brandon Park, Clayton, Huntingdale Village, Monash Home Maker Centre, Mount Waverley Village, Pinewood, Waverley Gardens

and Wheelers Hill).6

• Monash LGA had 11,082 manufacturing jobs in 2016 (78% of manufacturing jobs located in the 3 Gateway LLEN Region LGAs). These jobs are located in the industrial areas in the Notting Hill/ Clayton/Mulgrave/Oakleigh areas.

• Wholesale is a significant activity accounting for 6546 jobs in 2016(or almost 6% of local jobs). This reflects the consumer products and industrial products businesses that are located in the industrial estates in the Blackburn Road, Ferntree Gully Road and in the Clayton/Oakleigh area.

• Declines have occurred between 2011 and 2016 in manufacturing (reflecting the cessation of local automotive manufacturing and the impacts on component suppliers) and in wholesale activities (reflecting other areas in the west and north developing as logistic hubs).

• Growth sectors have been health, education and professional and technical services).

• Post-secondary education is a major activity and includes: Monash University; Holmesglen TAFE (Waverley and Drummond Street, Chadstone Campus). Tertiary education and adult, community and other education employed over 8400 persons in 2016.

• Monash Tech School has been recently established to develop and deliver programs in Science, Technology Engineering and Maths (STEM) to students at schools in the area.

• There is a substantial innovation cluster based around Monash University's Science Technology Research and Innovation Precinct and Technology Park and the Australian Synchrotron.

• Monash LGA has the headquarters or research divisions of a number of major companies including Robert Bosch Australia, NEC, BMW, Biota Holdings, and Mercedes Benz Financial Services.

• Health and social assistance – 15,033 jobs (14% of jobs and 47% of total health/social; assistance jobs across the 3 LGAs). This largely reflects the location of the Monash Medical Centre and the supporting medical and allied services that are clustered around it. The Monash Medical Centre is the major hospital servicing the south east region.

• Business services: are a significant employer and this is influenced by the large population size (and the population of adjacent LGAs) and the concentration of larger businesses that are located in the LGA. Business services comprising: finance and insurance; real estate services; and professional, scientific and technical services accounted for 13,082 jobs (12% of jobs in the LGA). This is made up of a mix of some large companies and smaller professional services businesses. Business services have continued to grow strongly in the area.

• In 2016 Monash LGA had a total of 7508 construction jobs (7% of employment in the LGA) and representing 54% of these jobs across the 3 local government areas. This reflects the significant level of infrastructure investment occurring in the region (education, transport, health).

The LGA has seen the development of high quality business parks and industrial parks and these have attracted headquarter operations of a number of national and international businesses and some wholesaling businesses. The area has the advantage of road access to the Monash Freeway and East Link. The area around Monash University has also attracted a number of high technology businesses that are research and innovation intensive. Some of these businesses have links with the University.

6 Chadstone Shopping Centre is located in the adjacent LGA of Stonnington.

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A.3 Whitehorse LGA Whitehorse LGA is located 15 kilometres east of central Melbourne. Box Hill, which is the main centre, is a Transit City and is a major hub for education (BHI), health services, office accommodation and retail activity. The Nunawading area has the Whitehorse Mega Mile of retailing covering furniture, home wares, automobiles, consumer electronics and whitegoods and fashion products. There are a range of business parks and industrial zones located in the LGA. In all a total of 6310 employing businesses are located in the area accounting for 69,185 local jobs. This represents 34% of total jobs in the Gateway LLEN Region. Whitehorse has a higher level of jobs self-containment due to its health, education and services centre role (retail and business services). It had a total of 69,185 jobs and 74,705 residents in employment. There is significant commuting to jobs in the Melbourne CBD and in other LGAs, particularly for persons in professional occupations and those working in financial services. It differs from Monash LGA in several respects: it has fewer large businesses; many of its jobs are located in small and medium sized businesses; and it has few head office operations.

• Health and social assistance is a major employer (12,588 jobs or 18% of employment and representing 39% of health jobs in the 3 LGAs). This reflects the health cluster located in Box Hill, which comprises Eastern Health/Box Hill Hospital and Epworth Eastern and associated medical and diagnostic services.

• Retail is a large employer (7325 jobs or 11%) and this covers Box Hill city centre and the big box retail that is located in the Mega Mile Precinct (Whitehorse Road Nunawading).

• Education and training (8595) is a major employer, with the operations of Box Hill TAFE and Deakin University and schools in the LGA.

• Manufacturing accounts for 4% of jobs -2463 jobs, however most of this employment is in small and medium sized business that are located in a range of industrial areas across the LGA. Since 2006 there has been a major decline in manufacturing jobs, due to closures and some businesses moving out of the LGA.

• Box Hill is one of the Transit Cities and has developed as a regional centre for services and government employment. There were 4233 government jobs in Whitehorse (6% of jobs), and this represents 52% of total government jobs across the 3 LGAs. This includes regional offices of the ATO, the Victoria Department of Human Services and other agencies.

• Whitehorse has a significant finance and business /professional services sector (12% of jobs or 8546jobs).

• Whitehorse had a total of 3903 construction jobs in 2016. These jobs and the major increase from 2011 reflect the major commercial and residential construction in the LGA. Local businesses servicing the market tend to be a combination of some medium sized businesses, with offices in industrial areas and self- employed tradespersons.

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B. Education and Training

B.1 Year 12 Completions Overall there is a relatively high level of Year 12 attainment in the Gateway LLEN region.

• For all persons (15 and over), who are no longer attending primary or secondary school, the rates are 66.5% in Manningham, 70.5% in Monash and 69.9% in Whitehorse. This is above the rate of 61.7% for Greater Melbourne. 7

• Government policies at national and state levels have focused on increasing Year 12 or equivalent attainments. Data for persons aged 20-24 years show Year 12 completions at 89.4% for Manningham, 89.8% for Monash and 88.4% for Whitehorse, in 2016. All were substantially above the Greater Melbourne average of 80.2%.

• For 20-24 year olds in 2016 almost 90% of young people in the Gateway LLEN region have completed Year 12 or equivalent. All these completion rates are higher than those in 2011, reflecting more young people remaining at school to complete Year 12.

• Over the last decade or more, females have tended to have a higher level of Year 12 (or equivalent) completions than males in all three LGAs. This is a national trend in education outcomes, and also reflects the fact that some males leave prior to year 12 to take up apprenticeships and males are more likely to disengage.

The On Track Report 2018 from DEECD provides aggregate data for secondary schools for the Gateway LLEN Region for students completing Year 12 in 2017.8

• Compared to Victoria overall, a greater proportion of Year 12 completers from the Gateway LLEN region in 2018 were in further education or training : Manningham 87.3%, Monash 89.7%, Whitehorse 81.9% compared with 75.1% for Victoria. For Victoria a higher percentage of completers were in employment (19.8%).

• Bachelor degree enrolments were Manningham 67.3%, Monash 76.5%, Whitehorse 63.1% and average for Victoria 54.9%.

B.2 Post School Qualifications For residents aged 15 years and over in the Gateway LLEN region LGAs.

• Bachelor degree qualifications were the most attained qualification level for all three LGAs with around 36% of residents aged 15 and over holding degrees. Advanced Diplomas/Diplomas were the second most attained qualification level for all three LGAs - Manningham (15.7%) and Monash (14.9%) and Whitehorse (15.9%).

• Females have a greater incidence of higher education qualifications and males are more likely to have VET qualifications (in apprentice trades).

• For younger persons aged 15-24 years, 41.5% of Manningham residents, 43.2% of Monash residents and 39.5% of Whitehorse residents had a bachelor degree qualification. For Certificate III or Certificate IV qualifications the shares were 18.3% of Manningham residents, 13.8% of Monash residents and 17.4% of Whitehorse residents.

• The data shows the major differences between males and females in terms of fields of study. For all three LGAs, Engineering and Related Technologies and Information Technology were largely qualifications that were attained by males, whereas qualifications in Society and Culture, Health, and Education were predominately held by females.

• This qualifications pattern reflects the occupation and industry distribution of males and females in employment. Males are concentrated in trades and technical jobs in manufacturing, building and construction and other industrial sectors and females hold most of the professional (eg. nursing) and para-professional jobs (allied health and support roles) in the health and social assistance sector and hold most of the teaching positions in the education sector (schools).

7 ABS Census 2016, General Community Profile (Residents) G16 Highest Year of School Completed by Age By Sex 8 On Track Year 12 Completer Survey 2018 (Department of Education and Training)

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Key Issues: Qualifications

• These qualifications/fields of study patterns have some implications for future employment prospects for young people.

• Many males are concentrated in fields/sectors that are experiencing structural changes (eg. manufacturing and wholesale trade) and where total jobs are declining.

• Females are more concentrated in fields/sectors, which are experiencing major ongoing growth in activity and jobs (eg. health, education, professional services) and which are linked to a growing population.

• Health and education are major sectors in the Gateway LLEN Region (particularly Monash and Whitehorse), with the location of major public and private hospitals, specialist medical services, universities and TAFE institutes.

B.3 Groups Requiring Support

• Year 12 completions are important for young people as most jobs now require Year 12 as a minimum, and the number of lower skill entry level jobs has continued to decline across all industry sectors (or be taken up by students working part-time).

Disengaged Youth

• Early school leavers face major problems in securing employment and competing for jobs in the current and future labour market.

• There is a need to continue to improve education completion rates of young people for those who become disengaged and disconnected.

• The lower rate of completions (particularly for males) indicates a need for transitions support for young people to improve educational attainment. Males generally remain more vulnerable to lower Year 12 completions across the region.

• A recent analysis using ABS Census 2016 data indicates that around 8%-9% of young persons 15-19 years could be classified as disengaged. The highest rate in 2016 was in Whitehorse (9.3%) 1009 persons, with Manningham (8.9%) 671 and Monash (8.7%) 1143.

• Programs like those being implemented by the Gateway LLEN are encouraging engagement and retention.

CALD Youth and Refugees

• The City of Monash is culturally diverse, with 51.6% of residents born overseas. Newly arrived migrants are mainly from China, India, Sri Lanka and Malaysia. There has been some settlement of refugees in the southern half of the city (Oakleigh and Clayton). Refugee young people often require extra assistance with schooling and homework, as their education may have been interrupted.

Indigenous Population

• The Indigenous cohort of residents in the region is relatively small, a total of 985 persons in 2016. ABS Census 2016 data indicates that there were 213 Indigenous persons in Manningham LGA, 358 in Whitehorse LGA and 414 in Monash LGA.

• Only a small number of these persons were aged 10-19 years: Manningham 44 (20.7%); Monash 98 (23.6%) and Whitehorse 67 (18.7%).

Special Needs Students

• Special needs students can be defined as students with an identified intellectual or physical disability, but also young people who may have a diagnosed or "hidden" learning disability.

• Special needs students participate in a range of Vocational Education and Training (VET) and VCAL options that enhance their senior years of schooling.

• Across the Gateway LLEN Region there are five special development schools catering for young people with an identified disability. Holmesglen TAFE and Box Hill Institute offer a suite of programs for persons with a disability.

Key Issues: Completions

• Year 12 or equivalent attainment in the Gateway LLEN Region has been consistently above the average rate for Victoria.

• While education outcomes are high in the region (degrees and VET certificates), there is a need to continue to assist young people to develop clear education/training/employment pathways (covering both higher education and vocational education paths) and to implement programs for those who are disengaged.

• There are still students who are not completing Year 12 or equivalent qualifications, through earlier disengagement from education or training or special needs. These contribute to the targets for programs facilitated by Gateway LLEN.

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C. Employment Trends & Outlooks

C.1 National Employment Of the total 19 industry sectors, at a national level 5 of these industries each provide more than 1 million jobs and, together, they account for around half of total national employment. The five largest employing industries are: Health Care and Social Assistance (1,663,900); Retail Trade (1,286,900); Construction (1,167,200); Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (1,033,000); and Education and Training (1,024,300).9

Industry Jobs Growth - 5 Years Over the five years to November 2017, about 1.2 million new jobs were created across 14 industries (although these were partly offset by job losses in others).

• The largest numbers of new jobs were created in: Health Care and Social Assistance (+ 301,600); Construction (+188,800); Education and Training (+126,500) and; Professional and Technical Services (+114,400). Health jobs accounted for 25% of the growth over the period, Construction 16%, Education and Training 11% and Professional Services 10%.

• Several sectors experienced employment falls (although some subsectors within these industries had jobs growth). The largest job losses were in: Manufacturing (- 58,800); Mining (-52,900); and Wholesale Trade (-50,900).

• The educational profile of the workforces varies across industries. However some of the key industries with the highest job growth rates require post-school qualifications. For example: Education and Training (86% hold post-school qualifications); Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (83%); and Health Care and Social Assistance (82%). Accommodation and Food Services and Retail Trade have jobs which do not require qualifications.

Occupations Growth – 5 Years Occupations can be grouped into eight major occupation groups. The largest (and one of the most highly skilled) is Professionals, which accounts for almost one in four Australian workers (or more than 2.9 million persons). The next two largest occupation groups are Technicians and Trades Workers (almost 1.8 million workers) and Clerical and Administrative Workers (more than 1.6 million).10

• Following on the industry trends, the highest growth rates in the 5 years to November 2017 were Professionals (+14.9% up by 375,000); Community and Personal Service Workers (+21.4% or 234,300) ; Managers (+8.3% or 118,200); and Sales Workers (+8.3% or 88,400).

• Specific occupations which recorded the largest numbers of new jobs over the five years to November 2017 were: General Sales Assistants (up by 51,700); Aged and Disabled Carers (49,800); and Registered Nurses (47,300).

• Occupations which recorded employment falls over the past five years include: Accounting Clerks (down by 21,900); Secretaries (21,100); Commercial Cleaners (15,600).

Employment of Young People

• Young workers (15 to 24 years) are employed across all industries, although some tend to employ more young people including: Retail Trade (around 386,000); Accommodation and

Food Services (385,000); and Construction (175,000).11 This employment includes part-time

jobs held by students, and in the construction sector, apprentices and trainees.

• Young workers (aged 15 to 24 years) are predominantly employed in occupations which do not require post-school qualifications. Specific occupations with the largest numbers of young people are: General Sales Assistants (263,400); Waiters (88,300); and Checkout Operators and Office Cashiers (82,400).12

9 Australian Jobs 2018, Department of Jobs and Small Business. P11 10 Australian Jobs 2018, Department of Jobs and Small Business. P22 11 Australian Jobs 2018, Department of Jobs and Small Business. P11 12 Australian Jobs 2018, Department of Jobs and Small Business. P22

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C.2 Industry Outlook 2022

The Department of Jobs and Small Business produces annual employment projections by industry for the following five years. The industries that have experience growth over the last 5 years are also those forecast to have the strongest growth, over the 5 year period 2018-2022.13

• Employment is projected to rise in 16 of the 19 industries over the five years to May 2022. The high growth in Health Care and Social Assistance in recent years is projected to continue, with this industry projected to add significantly more jobs than any other industry (up by 250,500). Other large contributions to employment growth are projected for Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (126,400), Construction (120,700), Education and Training (116,200) and Accommodation and Food Services (97,600). 14 The industries which are projected to grow most strongly (in percentage terms) are Health Care and Social Assistance (up by 16.1%), Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (12.5%) and Education and Training (12.0%).

• The Health Care and Social Assistance sector is projected to be the largest generator of new jobs. This industry comprises the sub sectors of hospitals, medical and other health services, residential care and social assistance services. Growth in activity and jobs is being driven by a range of interrelated factors including: ageing of the population; increased incidence of chronic diseases; expansion of services in health care; population growth; and demand for childcare and community services.

• Construction is also projected to add a significant number of jobs over the next five years. These jobs will be concentrated in areas with strong population and housing growth and will be associated with major infrastructure projects.

• Women represent a high share of the workforce in those sectors experiencing higher rates of jobs growth (eg. health care and social assistance and education).

C.3 Industry Trends – Gateway LLEN Region

Growth in the Gateway LLEN Region has largely aligned with industry growth at a national level, and for the Greater Melbourne.

Greater Melbourne

• In 2016, there were a total of 2.046 million jobs in Greater Melbourne. Between 2001 and 2016 the number of jobs increased by 289,766 or 16.5%. Greater Melbourne accounts for 75% of the total jobs in Victoria.

• Employment changes between 2011-2016 were: Health Care and Social Assistance (+ 46,121; Education and Training (+32,595); Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (+22,921); Accommodation and Food Services (+31235); and Construction (+ 29,172). Job falls occurred in Manufacturing (-35,103 or -17.8%) and Wholesale Trade (-17,872 or – 19.4%)

Gateway LLEN Region

• Overall the total number of jobs in the region increased by 28,568 to 203,902 jobs There were increases in all 3 LGAs, in Manningham (+4755) , Monash (+16,063) and Whitehorse (+7750).

• All three LGAs experienced a decline in jobs in several sectors: manufacturing jobs (total decline -3348) as well as experiencing loss of Wholesale Trade (-3340).

• On the positive side these declines were offset by strong jobs growth in several sectors. All three LGAs saw a net increase in jobs services in the Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (+2651), Health Care and Social Assistance (+ 6382) and Construction sectors (+3705).

The industry structure differs between each of the LGAs.

• Monash is a larger job market and is a major centre for manufacturing, wholesale trade and transport and warehousing. Construction jobs were high in 2016 reflecting the considerable construction projects in transport infrastructure, health and education.

• Both Monash and Whitehorse have a large number of jobs in health and this reflects the major public and private hospitals and specialist medical services.

• Education is a major employer with universities and TAFE institutes located in Monash and Whitehorse.

Unemployment

13 Australian Jobs 2018, Department of Jobs and Small Business. P30 14 Australian Jobs 2018, Department of Jobs and Small Business. P30

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Unemployment rates for the region have generally been below the state rates.

• In June 2018, Manningham 5.8% and Whitehorse 6.0% had unemployment rates above the Victorian rate 5.5%. Monash had a low unemployment rate of 3.2%, which has been consistently stable at this level for over 5 years. Youth unemployment rates are well above these levels.

• Youth unemployment rates in each LGA are substantially above these average unemployment rates for all persons.

• In a weaker labour market with limited jobs growth, there are fewer new employment opportunities (including apprenticeships) and young people are often competing with older persons, who have qualifications and work experience.

Key Issues: Future Employment & Skills

• This pattern of future employment demand has implications for skills development and education and training.

• Looking to the future- skills diversification and attainment of higher level qualifications (in both vocational and higher education streams) will be required as the skill requirements of jobs will continue to increase.

• Trades: several sectors are large employers of tradespersons – the construction industry and manufacturing industry. They also employ a significant number of machine operators and labourers. These two sectors are major employers of male workers.

• Professionals and para-professionals: the health and community services sectors employ a large percentage of professionals including: doctors, nurses, allied health professionals and other professionals. The sector has a predominantly female workforce (medical, nursing and care positions).

• Most of the new emerging jobs are in occupations for which post-school qualifications are required (and often work experience), while there has been a decline in lower skill level jobs.

• The largest growth at a national level was in professionals (particularly in the Health Care and Social Assistance, Education and Training and Professional and Technical Services).

• Projected growth occupations include: General Sales Assistants); Nurses, Contract, Programme and Project Administrators and Carers, Aged and Disabled. (with the rollout of the NDIS scheme)

C.4 Industry Issues

Industry Sectors There are specific industry issues that will affect jobs in the Gateway LLEN Region and opportunities for young people to enter some of the key industries.

Key Issues: Manufacturing The key future issues for manufacturing in the region are:

• The ongoing impacts of the cessation of automotive manufacturing on linked industries, particularly in Monash LGA.

• The need to continue to develop export markets for higher value manufactured products, a number of businesses in the region are involved in export markets.

• The increasing knowledge base of manufacturing industry and the requirement for a much higher level skills in the workforce.

• Current skill shortages and skill gaps in some industry segments in manufacturing.

• The need for improved linkages between manufacturers and education, including links with schools.

Key Issues: Construction The key future issues for construction jobs in the region are:

• The level of residential construction in the region, including higher density development.

• Ongoing public infrastructure projects – covering transport infrastructure, hospitals and education facilities.

• Skill shortages continuing I in some skilled trades occupations

• A need to encourage employers in the area to continue to train apprentices to maintain a future skilled workforce,

Key Issues: Wholesale Trade The key future issues in the region are:

• The sector provides employment for a significant number of persons without post school qualifications.

• Future reductions in jobs in the sector in the region area expected. This is due to rationalisation of supply chains and some movement of businesses to industrial/business parks in western and northern areas of Melbourne.

• The sector will continue to be important for the region.

• With the restructuring of the sectors higher skills will be important for persons remaining in the industry. Key Issues: Transport & Logistics

9

• The transport and logistics sectors will remain important for the Gateway LLEN Region, particularly in the industrial areas in the Monash and Whitehorse LGAs. Both LGAs have access to East Link and the Monash Freeway, which provide efficient links to regional, state and national markets.

• The logistics industry is growing and has a requirement in the medium term to replace an older workforce (especially drivers). However there are limitations in under 25s taking up driving positions due to high insurance costs.

• There are opportunities in the region to build stronger industry/education links with transport and logistic businesses, with a focus on opportunities and pathways for young people into the sector.

Services Sectors Service sectors are growing strongly creating new jobs requiring employees with qualifications and skills.

Key Issues: Healthcare & Social Assistance

• The health sector continues to grow strongly to meet community demand for services and this growth is occurring in the Gateway LLEN Region.

• At a national and state level, significant employment growth is expected over the next 5 years in a number of occupations: Allied Health Professionals Aged or Disability Carers, Child Carers, Nursing Support and Personal Care Workers, Allied Health Assistants and Welfare Support Workers. Nursing also provides a career path for young people.

• There is also strong demand for employees in the aged care sector as more facilities open to cater for the ageing population.

• Ongoing jobs growth in health and support services is expected in the Gateway LLEN Region.

• The sector offers a range of career opportunities for young persons, associated with demand growth and a need to replace an ageing workforce (particular in the health sector).

• Many occupations in the sector require Certificate III and Certificate IV qualifications for support roles and para-professional jobs. TAFE and some private providers are delivering most of the courses that service the sector, and the three LGAs have good access to programs at Box Hill Institute and Holmesglen TAFE.

• Nursing and allied health qualifications are offered at Monash and Deakin Universities.

Key Issues: Education & Training • Education jobs will continue to increase strongly over the next 5 years.

• This will be driven by population growth and an increase in student numbers (domestic and international), expansion of programs (higher education and VET) and increased funding by governments.

• A major issue is long term replacement of an ageing workforce (in university and schools education).

• Most jobs in the education sector require degree and post graduate qualifications.

Key Issues: Retail

• Population is expected to generate growth in food retailing jobs (eg supermarkets and specialty food stores).

• Jobs in department stores are likely to continue to contract.

• Online retailing will continue expand for consumer spending.

• This sector will continue to provide part-time jobs for young people , including students

• Retail provides entry level jobs for young people and enables them to gain experience, prior to entering other industries.

Key Issues: Accommodation & Food Services

• Jobs in food and beverage services are projected to increase by 11% in the 5 years to 2022.

• Growth is linked to increase in population in the LGAs, continuing growth in dining out, and spending by visitors to the areas.

• Food and beverage services will continue to provide entry level jobs and part-time jobs for young persons 15-24 year, including persons without qualifications and students working part-time.

• VET training will cover chefs and other employees.

10

1. Introduction

Role of Gateway LLEN

The Gateway Local Learning and Employment Network (Gateway LLEN) is a community-based incorporated association, which is focused on improving the education, training and employment outcomes for young people (10-19 years) in three local government areas in the east and south east: Whitehorse, Manningham and Monash LGAs. Gateway Local Learning and Employment Network (LLEN) is one 31 Victorian LLENs. The goal of the LLENs is to improve outcomes for young people, 10–19 years old, by increasing opportunities for their participation, attainment and successful transitions in education, training or employment. Gateway LLEN encompasses the local government areas of Whitehorse, Manningham and Monash and works with key stakeholders within these communities. LLEN stakeholders are made up a range of groups and organisations including education and training providers, business and industry, community agencies, and parent and family organisations. Each LLEN creates strategic, sustainable partnerships that improve education and transition outcomes for young people, including increasing Year 12 or equivalent attainment rates. LLENs use their knowledge of the region to influence strategic planning and broker partnerships among key stakeholders to support young people to remain engaged, or re-engage, in education or training. The initiatives tend to focus on ‘at risk’ youth and aim to increase their engagement in relevant and practical learning opportunities that lead to a supported transition through education, training and onto employment. The LLEN works in partnership with key stakeholders including: schools, universities, TAFE institutes, other training providers, Councils and a range of other community stakeholders.

Gateway LLEN Gateway Local Learning and Employment Network (LLEN) is one 31 Victorian LLENs. The goal of the LLENs is to improve outcomes for young people, 10 – 19 years old, by increasing opportunities for their participation, attainment and successful transitions in education, training or employment.

The partnerships are designed to address barriers faced by young people in a strategic and self-sustaining way, often tackling long term social and structural issues which have been difficult for schools and communities to address.

Our Priorities:

• Addressing the needs of at-risk young people

• Increasing educational engagement and attainment

• Supporting the transition of young people from primary to secondary schooling, and then into further education, training or employment

Regional Overview This regional report provides an environmental scan of the Manningham, Monash and Whitehorse LGAs from both an economic and community perspective. The report examines factors affecting young people in the region and their future education, training and employment outcomes. The review generates insights from a diverse range of data and other information that is available at a local government area level (from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and other sources). All of the data included in the report is the latest available as at January 2019.15

15 For detailed analysis at a local government area level , ABS Census data is used and data from the ABS Census 2016 is the latest available. Conducted every 5 years, the next ABS Census will be conducted in June 2021 , with data becoming available during 2022.

11

2. Regional Economy

2.1 Region Overview The Gateway LLEN Region comprises three eastern local government areas - Manningham, Monash and Whitehorse, and extends from the north east (Manningham) to the south east (Monash). The region is a major population centre and has a significant industry base, with specialisations in: advanced manufacturing; wholesale/distribution; health services; education (including universities and TAFE institutes); and retail and other services for a large regional population.

• Population – a total regional population of 494,351 in 2017 up by 36,938 (8.1% increase) on 2012 levels.

• A total of 49,854 businesses, with 18,957 being businesses with employees.

• Jobs - a total of 203,902 jobs are located in the region (2016). Overall job numbers increased by 28,568 or 16.3% in the period 2011-2016), as growth in service sector jobs (in particular growth in health services and education sector jobs), have offset by a significant decline in local jobs in manufacturing industry.16

• Employed residents - a total of 207,896 residents were in employment in 2016, with many residents commuting to jobs in other local government areas, including Melbourne City. This is particularly the case for Manningham LGA residents.

• Regional unemployment rate of 4.8% (12,850 persons) in June 2016. Unemployment rates have decreased over the last 3 years.17

• Education (2016) - a total of 149,084 residents of the region were in education and training including: 7395 in pre-school; 34,303 in primary school; 29,969 in secondary school; 7998 in TAFE; 42,769 in a university; 4715 in other types of education; and 21,935 not specified.18

16 ABS Census 2016, Working Population Profile . This is the latest data on jobs which is available at a local government area level . 17 Small Area Labour Markets-June 2018, Department of Jobs & Small Business (September 2018) ), Smoothed Unemployment no.) 18 ABS Census 2016 , General Community Profile (resident data). Table G15 Type of Educational Institution Attending (full and part –time).

GLLEN Region

Yarra

Ranges

12

Source: Source ID Data Community Profile (November 2018)

Source ABS, Regional Profiles by LGA, November 2018

Source: ABS Census 2016, Working Population Profile

25%

40%

35%

Population Gateway LLEN Region 2017 (Persons)

Manningham

Monash

Whitehorse

173,233124,262

196,856

25%

42%

33%

Businesses with Employees Gateway LLEN Region LGAs 2017

Manningham

Monash

Whitehorse

63104705

7942

14%

52%

34%

Jobs in Gateway LLEN Region LGAs 2016

Manningham

Monash

Whitehorse

69,185

28,931

105,786

13

Source: ABS Census 2016 , General Community Profile - Resident Population Data

Source: Small Area Labour Markets-June 2018, Department of Jobs & Small Business (September 2018), Smoothed Unemployment Rate (%) https://docs.jobs.gov.au/documents/lga-data-tables-small-area-labour-markets- September-quarter-2018

Source: Small Area Labour Markets-June 2018, Department of Jobs & Small Business (September 2018), Smoothed Unemployment Rate (%) https://docs.jobs.gov.au/documents/lga-data-tables-small-area-labour-markets- September-quarter-2018

25%

39%

36%

Employed Residents - Gateway LLEN LGAs 2016

Manningham

Monash

Whitehorse

74,705

80,373

52,818

5.8

3.2

6.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Manningham Monash Whitehorse

Unemployment Rates Gateway LLEN Region LGAs - June 2018 (%)

3,8633,448

5,539

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000


Unemployed Persons - Gateway LLEN Region LGAs June 2018 (no.)

https://docs.jobs.gov.au/documents/lga-data-tables-small-area-labour-markets-

https://docs.jobs.gov.au/documents/lga-data-tables-small-area-labour-markets-

14

Manningham LGA

Manningham LGA

Manningham LGA is located 14 kms. from the Melbourne CBD. It includes the suburbs of Bulleen, Doncaster, Doncaster East, Donvale, Nunawading (part), Park Orchards, Ringwood North (part), Templestowe, Templestowe Lower, Warrandyte, Warrandyte South and Wonga Park. The LGA is split into two areas - a semi-rural eastern area and a mainly residential area in the west (Doncaster/Templestowe/Bulleen).19

In summary, Manningham has a local service economy; it has few large employers; and a high percentage of employed residents (73%) commute to jobs outside of the LGA (including adjacent LGAs and the Melbourne CBD). Manningham is accessible to the activity and jobs that are located in the adjacent Whitehorse LGA. Manningham LGA is a much different area in comparison with Monash and Whitehorse LGAs in terms of population and settlement patterns and the local industry scale and mix of jobs.

• There are relatively few local jobs (only 28,951 jobs with total employed residents of 74,705) and a large part of the resident workforce (73%) commutes to jobs in the Melbourne CBD and in other

adjacent areas.20

• The largest sector of employment is retail with 5428 jobs or 18.8% of local employment. This largely reflects Westfield Doncaster together with the other smaller retail precincts in the LGA.21

• Other significant areas of employment include automobile sales and servicing.

• Accommodation and food services accounted for 2450 jobs (covering pubs, cafes, restaurants and food courts).

• Business and professional services are largely comprised of smaller service businesses and medium sized businesses located in the Doncaster area.

• Construction accounted for 2412 jobs and many of these are small tradesperson businesses and others reflect residential construction in the area.

19 http://www.manninghambusiness.com.au/Pub/pSplash.asp 20 http://profile.id.com.au/manningham/workers 2016 21 There are almost 300 main street businesses located in the precincts of Bulleen Plaza, Donburn, Doncaster East Village/Devon Plaza, Jackson Court, Macedon Square and Plaza, Park Orchards, Templestowe Village, Tunstall Square and Warrandyte. Technology Builds Your Business Manningham Business Survey – Key Findings – September 2013, Manningham Business

http://www.manninghambusiness.com.au/Pub/pSplash.asp

http://profile.id.com.au/manningham/workers

15

• There are few industrial areas in the LGA and Manningham only had 713 manufacturing jobs (2.5 % of jobs in the LGA and only 5% of total manufacturing jobs in the 3 LGAs). Most of these jobs are in small scale light industrial activities.

• Between 2011 and 2016 most of the local jobs growth was in the services sector: health, education, retail and business services.

Monash LGA

Monash LGA

Monash LGA is 20 kms. south east of the Melbourne CBD and had a population of 182,485 in 2013. The LGA includes the suburbs of Ashwood, Burwood (part), Chadstone, Clayton, Glen Waverley, Hughesdale, Huntingdale, Mount Waverley, Mulgrave, Notting Hill, Oakleigh, Oakleigh East, Oakleigh South (part) and Wheelers Hill. Monash LGA has a much broader base of industry than the other Gateway LLEN LGAs. Compared with the other areas it has a greater number of larger businesses. It is also is a major centre for businesses that are servicing national and international markets, and is home to a number of major international companies.

• While being a major residential area, Monash LGA has significant concentrations of employment, particularly in manufacturing, retail, education and health. The main industrial/business precincts areas are located in Clayton, Huntingdale, Mulgrave, Notting Hill and Oakleigh.

• Monash LGA has a much broader base of industry than the other two Gateway LLEN LGAs and has 105,796 jobs in 7942 businesses with employees (2016).

• Retail centres are located Glen Waverley (Centro- The Glen and Century City Walk) and Oakleigh and several other significant centres (Centro Brandon Park, Clayton, Huntingdale Village, Monash Home Maker Centre, Mount Waverley Village, Pinewood, Waverley Gardens and Wheelers Hill).22

• Monash LGA had 11,082 manufacturing jobs in 2016 (78% of manufacturing jobs located in the 3 Gateway LLEN Region LGAs). These jobs are located in the industrial areas in the Notting Hill/ Clayton/Mulgrave/Oakleigh areas.

22 Chadstone Shopping Centre is located in the adjacent LGA of Stonnington.

16

• Wholesale is a significant activity accounting for 6546 jobs in 2016 (or almost 6% of local jobs). This reflects the consumer products and industrial products businesses that are located in the industrial estates in the Blackburn Road, Ferntree Gully Road and in the Clayton/Oakleigh area.

• Declines have occurred between 2011 and 2016 in manufacturing (reflecting the cessation of local automotive manufacturing and the impacts on component suppliers) and in wholesale activities (reflecting other areas in the west and north developing as logistic hubs).

• Growth sectors have been health, education and professional and technical services).

• Post-secondary education is a major activity and includes: Monash University; Holmesglen TAFE (Waverley); Holmesglen’s new Drummond Street Chadstone Campus. Tertiary education and adult, community and other education employed over 8400 persons in 2016.

• Monash Tech School has been recently established to develop and deliver programs in science, technology engineering and Maths (STEM) to students attending schools in the area. Monash Tech School is one of 10 Tech Schools established by the Victorian Government and is hosted by Monash University.

• There is a substantial innovation cluster based around Monash University's Science Technology Research and Innovation Precinct and Technology Park and the Australian Synchrotron.

• Monash LGA has the headquarters or research divisions of a number of major companies including Robert Bosch Australia, NEC, BMW, Biota Holdings, and Mercedes Benz Financial Services.

• Health and social assistance – 15,033 jobs (14% of jobs and 47% of total health/social; assistance jobs across the 3 LGAs). This largely reflects the location of the Monash Medical Centre and the supporting medical and allied services that are clustered around it. The Monash Medical Centre is the major hospital servicing the south east region.

• Business services: are a significant employer and this is influenced by the large population size (and the population of adjacent LGAs) and the concentration of larger businesses that are located in the LGA. Business services comprising: finance and insurance; real estate services; and professional, scientific and technical services accounted for 13,082 jobs (12% of jobs in the LGA). This is made up of a mix of some large companies and smaller professional services businesses. Business services have continued to grow strongly in the area.

• In 2016 Monash LGA had a total of 7508 construction jobs (7% of employment in the LGA) and representing 54% of these jobs across the 3 local government areas. This reflects the significant level of infrastructure investment occurring in the region (education, transport, health).

The LGA has seen the development of high quality business parks and industrial parks and these have attracted headquarters operations of a number of national and international businesses and some wholesaling businesses. The area has the advantage of road access to the Monash Freeway and East Link. The area around Monash University has also attracted a number of high technology businesses that are research and innovation intensive. Some of these businesses have links with the University. Monash LGA has developed as a high technological cluster for industry. The Monash Technology Precinct is one of only ten Specialised Activity Centres in metropolitan Melbourne. This Precinct contains businesses and related research facilities such as Monash University, CSIRO, Monash Medical Centre and the Australian Synchrotron. Future Growth

• The Monash LGA has a number of major strengths that will drive future patterns of industry and employment. This includes: proximity to south-eastern growth corridor and transport links to Melbourne Airport and the Port of Melbourne; high quality business parks and recognition as a headquarters location; strong linkages with Monash University and the Monash Medical Centre; a significant number of technology based companies; areas available for green field and brown fields development; and education and training infrastructure (Monash and Holmesglen).

• There are some major issues that are affecting industry in the region and these include: continued pressure on segments of manufacturing (eg. cessation of local automobile manufacturing and its linked industries in Monash LGA); the decline in some traditional areas of manufacturing; continued skill shortages in key sectors (particularly engineering skills); the need to attract more head office locations; and a need for stronger knowledge components in industry (research and innovation).

• Monash Council has a strategy, which has a focus on: retaining existing businesses in the City of Monash; assisting businesses to improve their performance; encouraging new investment in the City of Monash; and facilitating the start-up of new business ventures.23

23 Monash Economic Development Strategy and Action Plan 2013 – 2017, Monash City Council

17

Whitehorse LGA

Whitehorse LGA

Whitehorse LGA is located 15 kilometres east of central Melbourne. Box Hill, which is the main centre, is a Transit City and is a major hub for education (BHI), health services, office accommodation and retail activity. The Nunawading area has the Whitehorse Mega Mile of retailing covering furniture, home wares, automobiles, consumer electronics and whitegoods and fashion products. There are a range of business parks and industrial zones located in the LGA. In all a total of 6310 employing businesses are located in the area accounting for 69,185 local jobs. This represents 34% of total jobs in the Gateway LLEN Region. Whitehorse has a higher level of jobs self-containment due to its health, education and services centre role (retail and business services). It had a total of 69,185 jobs and 74,705 residents in employment. There is significant commuting to jobs in the Melbourne CBD and in other LGAs, particularly for persons in professional occupations and those working in financial services. It differs from Monash LGA in several respects: it has fewer large businesses; many of its jobs are located in small and medium sized businesses; and it has few head office operations.

• Health and social assistance is a major employer (12,588 jobs or 18% of employment and representing 39% of health jobs in the 3 LGAs). This reflects the health cluster located in Box Hill, which comprises Eastern Health/Box Hill Hospital and Epworth Eastern and associated medical and diagnostic services.

• Retail is a large employer (7325 jobs or 11%) and this covers the role of Box Hill city centre and the big box retail that is located in the Mega Mile Precinct (Whitehorse Road Nunawading).

• Education and training (8595) is a major employer, with the operations of Box Hill TAFE and Deakin University and schools in the LGA.

• Manufacturing accounts for 4% of jobs -2463 jobs, however most of this employment is in small and medium sized business that are located in a range of industrial areas across the LGA. Since 2006 there has been a major decline in manufacturing jobs, due to closures and some businesses moving out of the LGA.

• Box Hill is one of the Transit Cities and has developed as a regional centre for services and government employment. There were 4233 government jobs in Whitehorse (6% of jobs), and this represents 52% of total government jobs across the 3 LGAs. This includes regional offices of the ATO, the Victoria Department of Human Services and other agencies.

18

• Whitehorse has a significant finance and business /professional services sector (12% of jobs or 8546 jobs).

• Whitehorse had a total of 3903 construction jobs in 2016. These jobs and the major increase from 2011 reflect the major commercial and residential construction in the LGA. Local businesses servicing the market tend to be a combination of some medium sized businesses, with offices in industrial areas and self- employed tradespersons.

2.2 Population

2.2.1 Gateway LLEN Region The local government areas (LGAs) that make up the Gateway LLEN’s region are Manningham City, Monash City and Whitehorse City. The combined population of these three LGAs was 494,351 June

2017, up by 36,938 (8.1% increase) on 2012 levels.24 Monash (40%) and Whitehorse (35%) had the

larger populations.

Source: ID Data Community Profile, 2018, based on ABS data.


24 ID Data Community Profile, 2018 based on ABS Estimates by LGA

457,413 463,693

469,907

476,638

484,836

494,351

430,000

440,000

450,000

460,000

470,000

480,000

490,000

500,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Total Population - Gateway LLEN Region 2012-2017 (estimates no.)

25%

40%

35%

Population Gateway LLEN Region 2017 (Persons)

Manningham

Monash

Whitehorse173,233

124,262

196,856

19

Manningham LGA

Manningham has the smallest population of the three LGAs, estimated at 124,262 (25% of

the regional population) in 2017.25

The population increased by 8822 or 5.8 % in the period 2012-17.26

Population projections suggest growth in Manningham will accelerate in the coming years. Projections for the 20 years to 2036 indicate an increase in population of 26,363 (21.4%) from

122,911 in 2016 to 149,274 in 2036.27 This growth largely reflects some increase in housing

densities in areas of the LGA.

Monash LGA Monash has the largest population of the three LGAs estimated at 196,856 in 2017. During

the 2012-2017 period Monash’s population grew by 16,544 or 9.2%.28 Projections to 2036

indicate an increase in the LGA’s population of 21,799 (11.3%) from 192,850 in 2016 to

214,649 in 2036.29

This will comprise a combination of medium density housing and conversion of non-residential land into homes, with some greenfield housing development.

Whitehorse LGA Whitehorse LGA’s population was estimated to be 173,233 people in 2017. Growth in the

2012-2017 period was 13,572 or only 8.5%.30 Projections indicate that Whitehorse’s population will increase by 37,331 (21.9%) from

170,093 in 2016 to 207,424 in 2036. 31

This increase largely reflects the development of apartments and higher density development (units) on existing sites.


25 ID Data Community Profile, 2018 based on ABS Estimates by LGA 26 ID Data Community Profile, 2018 based on ABS Estimates by LGA 27 Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, September 2017 28 ID Data Community Profile, 2018 based on ABS Estimates by LGA 29 Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, September 2017 30 ID Data Community Profile, 2018 based on ABS Estimates by LGA 31 Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, September 2017

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Manningham 117,440 118,357 119,437 120,785 122,570 124,262

Monash 180,312 183,255 186,150 189,174 192,625 196,856

Whitehorse 159,661 162,081 164,320 166,679 169,641 173,233

Total Gateway LLEN Region 457,413 463,693 469,907 476,638 484,836 494,351

457,413 463,693 469,907 476,638 484,836 494,351

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

Estimated Population Gateway LLEN Region - 2012-2017 (Persons no.)

20



Table 1. Population Gateway LLEN Region 2012-2017(estimates no.)

LGA 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Change

e 2012-17 % Share

2017

% change 2012-17

Manningham 117,440 118,357 119,437 120,785 122,570 124,262 6,822 25.1 5.8

Monash 180,312 183,255 186,150 189,174 192,625 196,856 16,544 39.8 9.2

Whitehorse 159,661 162,081 164,320 166,679 169,641 173,233 13,572 35.0 8.5

Total Gateway LLEN Region 457,413 463,693 469,907 476,638 484,836 494,351 36,938 100.0 8.1


2.2.2 Population by Age Groups

The following chart shows the estimated number of young persons in 2017.

Source: ID estimates based on ABS Census 2016 Data

6,822

16,544 13,572

36,938

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Manningham Monash Whitehorse Total Gateway LLENRegion

Pe

rso

ns

Population Increase Gateway LLEN Region 2012-17 (Persons)

5.8

9.28.5 8.1

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Manningham Monash Whitehorse Total Gateway LLEN Region

Population Increase Gateway LLEN Region 2012-17 (Persons % Change)

Persons - 0-4 years Persons - 5-9 yearsPersons - 10-14

yearsPersons - 15-19


years

Whitehorse 9,601 9,989 9,672 10,960 15,251

Monash 10,064 10,943 10,231 12,829 21,470

Manningham 6,346 7,074 7,045 7,896 8,231

6,346 7,074 7,045 7,896 8,231

10,064 10,943 10,231 12,829 21,470 9,601 9,989 9,672

10,960

15,251

- 5,000

10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000

Estimated Population Young Persons - Gateway LLEN Region LGAs 2017 (no.)

21

There has been ongoing growth in the number of young persons in each of the age groupings in the three LGAs.

Table 2. Population by Young Age Groups 2012-2017 - Manningham LGA (estimates no.) Manningham LGA 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Males

Males - 0-4 years (no.) 2,892 2,943 3,041 3,127 3,172 3,278

Males - 5-9 years (no.) 3,281 3,357 3,400 3,471 3,610 3,687

Males - 10-14 years (no.) 3,550 3,512 3,527 3,540 3,614 3,698

Males - 15-19 years (no.) 3,847 3,832 3,956 3,995 4,100 4,159

Males - 20-24 years (no.) 4,178 4,176 4,135 4,181 4,219 4,328

Females Females - 0-4 years (no.) 2,781 2,866 2,898 2,962 2,964 3,068

Females - 5-9 years (no.) 3,012 3,037 3,087 3,171 3,348 3,387

Females - 10-14 years (no.) 3,251 3,225 3,274 3,318 3,319 3,347

Females - 15-19 years (no.) 3,617 3,599 3,632 3,683 3,776 3,737

Females - 20-24 years (no.) 3,936 3,829 3,742 3,721 3,789 3,903

Persons Persons - 0-4 years (no.) 5,673 5,809 5,939 6,089 6,136 6,346

Persons - 5-9 years (no.) 6,293 6,394 6,487 6,642 6,958 7,074

Persons - 10-14 years (no.) 6,801 6,737 6,801 6,858 6,933 7,045

Persons - 15-19 years (no.) 7,464 7,431 7,588 7,678 7,876 7,896

Persons - 20-24 years (no.) 8,114 8,005 7,877 7,902 8,008 8,231

Source: ID estimates based on ABS Census & population data

Table 3. Population by Young Age Groups 2012-2017 - Monash LGA (estimates no.) Monash LGA 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Males

Males - 0-4 years (no.) 4,759 4,982 5,109 5,187 5,309 5,220

Males - 5-9 years (no.) 4,713 4,835 4,979 5,127 5,359 5,603

Males - 10-14 years (no.) 4,688 4,789 4,947 5,099 5,195 5,326

Males - 15-19 years (no.) 5,995 6,248 6,444 6,597 6,708 6,515

Males - 20-24 years (no.) 9,491 9,329 9,385 9,691 10,124 11,234


Females - 5-9 years (no.) 4,421 4,599 4,789 5,009 5,170 5,340

Females - 10-14 years (no.) 4,506 4,566 4,660 4,718 4,840 4,905

Females - 15-19 years (no.) 5,593 5,858 6,065 6,273 6,430 6,314

Females - 20-24 years (no.) 8,306 8,352 8,490 8,709 9,097 10,236


Persons - 5-9 years (no.) 9,134 9,434 9,768 10,136 10,529 10,943

Persons - 10-14 years (no.) 9,194 9,355 9,607 9,817 10,035 10,231

Persons - 15-19 years (no.) 11,588 12,106 12,509 12,870 13,138 12,829

Persons - 20-24 years (no.) 17,797 17,681 17,875 18,400 19,221 21,470


Table 4. Population by Young Age Groups 2012-2017 - Whitehorse LGA (estimates no.) Whitehorse LGA 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Males

Males - 0-4 years (no.) 4,620 4,656 4,691 4,756 4,898 4,917

Males - 5-9 years (no.) 4,760 4,858 4,883 4,911 4,970 5,071

Males - 10-14 years (no.) 4,526 4,609 4,739 4,801 4,873 4,974

Males - 15-19 years (no.) 4,794 4,919 5,061 5,220 5,466 5,515

Males - 20-24 years (no.) 6,798 6,847 7,023 7,238 7,488 8,102


Females - 5-9 years (no.) 4,454 4,627 4,664 4,780 4,895 4,918

Females - 10-14 years (no.) 4,251 4,327 4,475 4,514 4,582 4,698

Females - 15-19 years (no.) 4,812 4,895 5,010 5,214 5,387 5,445

Females - 20-24 years (no.) 6,432 6,443 6,445 6,514 6,717 7,149


Persons - 5-9 years (no.) 9,214 9,485 9,547 9,691 9,865 9,989

Persons - 10-14 years (no.) 8,777 8,936 9,214 9,315 9,455 9,672

Persons - 15-19 years (no.) 9,606 9,814 10,071 10,434 10,853 10,960

Persons - 20-24 years (no.) 13,230 13,290 13,468 13,752 14,205 15,251


22

2.2.3 Population by Service Groups

The following charts and table show the estimated population in 2016 by service groups. The service groups provide an insight into the stage of life and their service requirements.

Source: ID Community Profiles based on ABS Census 2016


5,538

9,169

8,473

10,316

12,885

22,479

15,987

13,210

14,531

3,668

9,283

13,804

11,836

24,227

27,136

35,689

20,565

16,830

18,159

5,088

8,822

12,958

11,285

17,646

22,853

32,975

19,213

15,422

15,939

4,959

- 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000

Babies and pre-schoolers (0 to 4)

Primary schoolers (5 to 11)

Secondary schoolers (12 to 17)

Tertiary education and independence (18 to 24)

Young workforce (25 to 34)

Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)

Older workers and pre-retirees (50 to 59)

Empty nesters and retirees (60 to 69)

Seniors (70 to 84)

Elderly aged (85 and over)

Population by Service Groups - Gateway LLEN Region LGAs - 2016 ( Persons no.)

Manningham

Monash

Whitehorse

4.8

7.9

7.3

8.9

11.1

19.3

13.8

11.4

12.5

3.2

5.1

7.6

6.5

13.3

14.9

19.5

11.3

9.2

9.9

2.8

5.4

8.0

7.0

10.9

14.1

20.3

11.9

9.5

9.8

3.1

6.4

8.5

6.7

10.0

16.3

21.1

11.9

9.3

7.7

2.0

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0

Babies and pre-schoolers (0 to 4)

Primary schoolers (5 to 11)

Secondary schoolers (12 to 17)

Tertiary education and independence (18 to 24)

Young workforce (25 to 34)

Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)

Older workers and pre-retirees (50 to 59)

Empty nesters and retirees (60 to 69)

Seniors (70 to 84)

Elderly aged (85 and over)

Population by Service Age Groups - Gateway LLEN Region LGAs 2016 ( Persons % share)

Manningham %

Monash %

Whitehorse %

Greater Melbourne %

23

Table 5. Population by Service Groups – Gateway LLEN Region (Persons no.) Population (Persons)

2016 Manningham Manningham Monash Monash Whitehorse Whitehorse Greater

Melbourne

Service age group (years) no. % no. % no. % %

Babies and pre-schoolers (0 to 4) 5,538 4.8 9,283 5.1 8,822 5.4 6.4

Primary schoolers (5 to 11) 9,169 7.9 13,804 7.6 12,958 8.0 8.5

Secondary schoolers (12 to 17) 8,473 7.3 11,836 6.5 11,285 7.0 6.7

Tertiary education and independence (18 to 24) 10,316 8.9 24,227 13.3 17,646 10.9 10.0

Young workforce (25 to 34) 12,885 11.1 27,136 14.9 22,853 14.1 16.3

Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49) 22,479 19.3 35,689 19.5 32,975 20.3 21.1

Older workers and pre-retirees (50 to 59) 15,987 13.8 20,565 11.3 19,213 11.9 11.9

Empty nesters and retirees (60 to 69) 13,210 11.4 16,830 9.2 15,422 9.5 9.3

Seniors (70 to 84) 14,531 12.5 18,159 9.9 15,939 9.8 7.7

Elderly aged (85 and over) 3,668 3.2 5,088 2.8 4,959 3.1 2.0

Total 116,256 100.0 182,617 100.0 162,072 100.0 100.0


2.3 Population Projections

The following tables and charts show the population projections between 2016 and 2036. Over the 20 year period the population of the region is forecast to increase by 85,493 (17.6%) from 485,854 in 2016 to 571,347 in 2026.

• Manningham – increase of 26,363 (21.4%) from 122,911 to 149,274 in 2036.

• Monash – increase of 21,799 (11.3%) from 192,850 to 214,649 in 2036.

• Whitehorse – increase of 37,331 (21.9%) from 170,093 to 207,424 in 2036.

2.3.1 Total Population

Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by . id, the population experts, September 2017.

2016 2021 2026 2031 2036Increase 2016-

2036

Manningham 122,911 133,135 139,623 145,042 149,274 26,363

Monash 192,850 199,343 204,737 209,923 214,649 21,799

Whitehorse 170,093 184,260 193,816 200,726 207,424 37,331

Total Region 485,854 516,738 538,176 555,691 571,347 85,493

485,854516,738 538,176 555,691 571,347

85,493

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

Pe

rso

ns

Population Projections - Gateway LLEN Region 2016-2036(Persons no.)

24

Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, September 2017.

2.3.2 Population by Service Age Groups

The following tables show projected growth by Service Age Groups for the period 2016 to 2036.

Table 6. Population Projections by Service Age Group – Manningham LGA 2016-2036 (persons no.)

Manningham Population (Persons)

2016 2026 2036

Change between 2016 and

2036

Service Age group (years) no. % share no. % share no. % share no.

Babies and pre-schoolers (0 to 4) 6,172 5.0 7,244 5.2 7,695 5.2 1,523

Primary schoolers (5 to 11) 9,711 7.9 10,120 7.2 10,953 7.3 1,242

Secondary schoolers (12 to 17) 8,782 7.1 9,588 6.9 10,063 6.7 1,280

Tertiary education and independence (18 to 24) 11,327 9.2 12,717 9.1 13,128 8.8 1,801

Young workforce (25 to 34) 14,519 11.8 17,421 12.5 18,274 12.2 3,755

Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49) 23,696 19.3 27,164 19.5 29,287 19.6 5,591

Older workers and pre-retirees (50 to 59) 16,624 13.5 17,971 12.9 19,072 12.8 2,448

Empty nesters and retirees (60 to 69) 13,702 11.1 15,628 11.2 16,611 11.1 2,910

Seniors (70 to 84) 14,727 12.0 17,234 12.3 19,066 12.8 4,340

Elderly aged (85 and over) 3,651 3.0 4,534 3.2 5,124 3.4 1,474

Total persons 122,911 100.0 139,623 100.0 149,274 100.0 26,363

Source: ID Population Forecasts (November 2017)

Table 7. Population Projections by Service Age Group – Monash LGA 2016-2036 (persons no.)

Monash Population (Persons)

2016 2026 2036


2036


Babies and pre-schoolers (0 to 4) 10,213 5.3 10,553 5.2 10,835 5.0 622

Primary schoolers (5 to 11) 14,600 7.6 14,517 7.1 15,120 7.0 520







Seniors (70 to 84) 18,433 9.6 19,657 9.6 20,914 9.7 2,481


Total persons 192,850 100.0 204,737 100.0 214,649 100.0 21,799


10,224

6,488

5,419

4,232

26,363

6,493

5,394

5,186

4,726

21,799

14,167

9,556

6,910

6,698

37,331

30,884

21,438

17,515

15,656

85,493

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000

2016-2021

2021-2026

2026-2031

2031-2036

2016-2036

2016-20212021-20262026-20312031-20362016-2036

Manningham 10,2246,4885,4194,23226,363

Monash 6,4935,3945,1864,72621,799

Whitehorse 14,1679,5566,9106,69837,331

Total Region 30,88421,43817,51515,65685,493

Population Growth - Gateway LLEN Region LGAs 2016-2036 (Change no.)

25

Table 8. Population Projections by Service Age Group – Whitehorse LGA 2016-2036 (persons no.)

Whitehorse Population (Persons)

2016 2026 2036


2036


Babies and pre-schoolers (0 to 4) 9,615 5.7 10,663 5.5 11,328 5.5 1,713

Primary schoolers (5 to 11) 13,650 8.0 13,095 6.8 14,079 6.8 429







Seniors (70 to 84) 16,152 9.5 19,692 10.2 22,665 10.9 6,513


Total persons 170,093 100.0 193,816 100.0 207,424 100.0 37,331


2.3.3 Population Projections – Young Persons

The chart below shows projections for younger age groups for the 2016-2036 period for each of the LGAs.

Source: Population forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, November 2017.

Key Issues • The area covered by the Gateway LLEN is a significant economic region within the Melbourne metropolitan area. The

combined population of the three LGAs was 494,351 people in 2017.

• Faster growth population growth is projected for the 20 year period 2016 to 2036, as higher density residential development occurs in various parts of the 3 LGAs. Population of the region is expected to reach 571,347.

• Population growth will continue to generate additional retail and service sector jobs in the region. This growth in services, including health services, business services and education , is offsetting major declines in jobs in manufacturing (in Monash and Whitehorse LGAs).

• Traditionally the retail and food services sectors provide part time and entry level employment opportunities for young people and entry level jobs. This pattern is expected to continue.

Manningham2016

Manningham2026

Manningham2036

Monash 2016 Monash 2026 Monash 2036Whitehorse

2016Whitehorse

2026Whitehorse

2036

20 to 24 8,067 9,155 9,508 19,289 19,943 20,584 14,280 17,174 17,288

15 to 19 7,875 8,567 8,799 13,181 14,406 14,771 10,859 13,342 13,352

10 to 14 6,938 7,505 8,048 10,040 10,642 11,167 9,453 9,627 10,226

5 to 9 6,941 7,198 7,789 10,556 10,406 10,738 9,869 9,506 10,155

0 to 4 6,172 7,244 7,695 10,213 10,553 10,835 9,615 10,663 11,328

6,938 7,505 8,048

10,040 10,642 11,167 9,453 9,627 10,226

7,875 8,567 8,799

13,181 14,406 14,771

10,859 13,342 13,352

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Pe

rso

ns

Population Projections - Gateway LLEN Region LGAs 2016-2036- Young Persons (no.)

26

2.4 Jobs in the Region

This section examines jobs that are located in the Gateway LLEN region.32 This analysis

provides a perspective on the structure of industry and the types of local jobs that are available to young people and to other working age persons in the region.

2.4.1 Gateway LLEN Region

The combined number of jobs located in the Manningham, Monash and Whitehorse LGAs in the 2016 Census was just over 203,902 jobs.33 Manningham had 28,931 jobs located in the LGA (14% of jobs in the Gateway LLEN region). Monash (105,786 or 52%) and Whitehorse (69,185 or 34%).34 Many residents of the Gateway LLEN Region LGAs commute to jobs in other areas (adjacent LGAs and the Melbourne CBD). There were 207,896 employed residents and 203,902 local jobs in the three LGAs. The region constitutes a major urban labour market with significant movements as workers commuted to their jobs in other LGAs and residents of other areas commute to jobs in the Gateway LLEN Region LGAs. These journey to work patterns are examined later in this report.

Source: ABS Census 2016, Working Population Profile (2017)

Source: ABS Census 2016, General Community Profile (Resident Population Data)

Total jobs in the region increased by 28,568 or 16.3% between 2011 and 2016, with growth in each of the LGAs: Manningham increase 4755 (19.7%); Monash increase 16,063 (17.9%); and Whitehorse 7750 (12.6%).

32 ABS Census data for 2016 is the latest data available on jobs with local government areas. The ABS’ Working Population Profile identifies jobs that are located within the boundaries of a local area. 33 ABS Census 2016 ,Working Population Profile (2017) 34 ABS Census 2016 ,Working Population Profile (2017)

14%

52%

34%

Jobs in Gateway LLEN Region LGAs 2016

Manningham

Monash

Whitehorse

69,185

28,931

105,786

25%

39%

36%


Manningham

Monash

Whitehorse

74,705

80,373

52,818

27

Source: ABS Census 2011 & 2016, Working Population Profile

Industry Structure The industry structure differs between each of the LGAs.

• Monash is a larger job market and is a major centre for manufacturing , wholesale trade and transport and warehousing. Construction jobs were high in 2016 reflecting the considerable construction projects in transport infrastructure, health and education.

• Both Monash and Whitehorse have a large number of jobs in health and this reflects the major public and private hospitals and specialist medical services.

• Education is a major employer with universities and TAFE institutes located in Monash and Whitehorse.

• There have been significant changes in the job mix between 2011 and 2016.

Manningham Monash Whitehorse Total Region

2011 24,176 89,723 61,435 175,334

2016 28,931 105,786 69,185 203,902

24,176

89,723

61,435

175,334

28,931

105,786

69,185

203,902

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Jobs in Gateway LLEN Region 2011 & 2016

28


114

30

713

39

2,412

661

704

337

672

715

2,252

848

893

5,428

2,450

3,274

4,402

537

1,282

164

63

11,082

719

7,580

6,546

4,229

1,835

2,727

1,638

8,717

3,794

2,984

10,821

4,589

13,637

15,033

1,075

3,134

71

18

2,463

774

3,903

2,983

1,429

2,019

1,490

1,269

5,697

2,844

4,233

7,325

3,733

8,595

12,588

937

3,727

- 4,000 8,000 12,000 16,000

Goods Producing

Agriculture, forestry and fishing

Mining

Manufacturing

Electricity, gas, water and waste services

Construction

Goods Related Services

Wholesale trade

Transport, postal and warehousing

Business Services

Information media and telecommunications

Financial and insurance services

Rental, hiring and real estate services

Professional, scientific and technical services

Administrative and support services

Government

Public administration and safety

In Person Sevices

Retail trade

Accommodation and food services

Education and training

Health care and social assistance

Arts and recreation services

Other services

Jobs by Industry 2016 - Gateway LLEN Region LGAs (Persons)

Manningham 2016

Monash 2016

Whitehorse 2016

29

Source: ABS Census 2011 Working Population Profile (2013)

80

12

876

30

1756

860

605

275

703

510

1974

524

759

4926

2030

2708

3609

483

1158

78

64

12906

753

5503

8507

3230

1764

2576

1201

7062

2626

2724

9649

3287

11200

11908

835

2732

42

24

3824

1124

2931

4162

1351

1850

1409

829

4979

2600

4240

7074

2699

7307

10124

765

3486

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000

Goods Producing Industries


Mining

Manufacturing


Construction


Wholesale trade


Business Services






Government


In-Person Services

Retail trade





Other services

Jobs by Industry 2011 - Gateway LLEN Region LGAs (Persons)

Manningham

Monash

Whitehorse

30

2.4.2 Job Trends 2011-16

While total jobs in the region have increased over the 5 year period, there has been a mix of job declines in some sectors and growth in other sectors. For the total region, growth sectors include health, education, construction, professional services, and accommodation and food services and retail. Declines were in manufacturing and wholesale trade, and these falls were concentrated in Monash and Whitehorse. These were offset by significant growth in jobs in the health and education sectors.


149

11

-3,348

-375

3,705

-3,339

1,176

302

201

1,082

2,651

1,736

387

1,925

2,756

4,291

6,382

466

767

28,568

-10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000

Goods Producing


Mining

Manufacturing


Construction


Wholesale trade


Business Services






Government


In Person Sevices

Retail trade





Other services

Total Jobs

Job Trends - Gateway LLEN Region 2011-2016 (no.)

Total Region

31


The following charts compare jobs in the Gateway LLEN LGAs with the shares for Greater Melbourne. The Gateway LLEN Region is more specialised in: health care and social assistance -15.7% of jobs (cf. 12.1% for Greater Melbourne); and education and training – 12.5% of jobs (cf. 8.8% for Greater Melbourne). This is more pronounced when individual LGAs are examined.

34

18

-163

9

656

-199

99

62

-31

205

278

324

134

502

420

566

793

54

124

4,755

86

-1

-1,824

-34

2,077

-1,961

999

71

151

437

1,655

1,168

260

1,172

1,302

2,437

3,125

240

402

16,063

29

-6

-1,361

-350

972

-1,179

78

169

81

440

718

244

-7

251

1,034

1,288

2,464

172

241

7,750

-5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000

Goods Producing


Mining

Manufacturing


Construction


Wholesale trade


Business Services






Government


In Person Sevices

Retail trade





Other services

Total Jobs

Job Trends - Gateway LLEN Region LGAs 2011-2016 (no.)

Manningham

Monash

Whitehorse

32

Source: ABS Census 2016, Working Population Data (2017)

0.2

0.1

7.0

0.8

6.8

5.0

11.6

5.3

3.1

2.1

2.4

1.8

8.2

3.7

4.0

12.5

15.7

1.3

4.0

0.6

0.2

7.9

1.0

6.7

3.6

10.4

6.6

5.0

2.2

4.7

1.8

9.3

3.3

5.2

8.8

12.1

2.1

3.6

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing

Mining

Manufacturing

Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services

Construction

Wholesale Trade

Retail Trade

Accommodation and Food Services

Transport, Postal and Warehousing

Information Media and Telecommunications

Financial and Insurance Services

Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services

Administrative and Support Services

Public Administration and Safety

Education and Training

Health Care and Social Assistance

Arts and Recreation Services

Other Services

Jobs by Industry 2016 - Gateway LLEN Region & Greater Melbourne (% share)

Gateway Region

Greater Melbourne

33


2.4.3 Manningham LGA

In 2016 Manningham had 28,917 jobs located in the LGA, and 58% of these jobs were held by persons who were resident outside the LGA and 12,105 jobs (42%) were held by persons who lived in Manningham. A large proportion (38,493 or 73%) of employed residents travels to work in adjacent LGAs and the Melbourne CBD, and only 23% both lived and worked in Manningham.

Table 9. Employment Location of Residents 2016 – Manningham LGA Manningham LGA Employment Location of Residents 2016 Status No. %

Live and work in the area 12,105 22.9

Live in the area, but work outside 38,493 73.0

No fixed place of work 2,163 4.1

Total employed residents in the area 52,761 100.0

Source: https://profile.id.com.au/manningham/workers

0.6

0.2

7.9

1.0

6.7

3.6

10.4

6.6

5.0

2.2

4.7

1.8

9.3

3.3

5.2

8.8

12.1

2.1

3.6

0.4

0.1

2.5

0.1

8.3

2.3

18.8

8.5

2.4

1.2

2.3

2.5

7.8

2.9

3.1

11.3

15.2

1.9

4.4

0.2

0.1

10.5

0.7

7.2

6.2

10.2

4.3

4.0

1.7

2.6

1.5

8.2

3.6

2.8

12.9

14.2

1.0

3.0

0.1

0.0

3.6

1.1

5.6

4.3

10.6

5.4

2.1

2.9

2.2

1.8

8.2

4.1

6.1

12.4

18.2

1.4

5.4

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0


Mining

Manufacturing


Construction

Wholesale Trade

Retail Trade












Other Services

Jobs by Industry 2016 - Gateway LLEN Region LGAs & Greater Melbourne (% shares)

Greater Melbourne

Manningham

Monash

Whitehorse

34

Table 10. Residential Location of Workers 2016– Manningham LGA Manningham LGA Residential Location of Workers 2016

Status No. %

Live and work in the LGA 12,105 41.9

Work in the area, but live outside 16,812 58.1

Total jobs/workers in the area 28,917 100.0

Source: https://profile.id.com.au/manningham/workers

Manningham is mainly a service economy, with local jobs concentrated in a number of sectors: retail 5428; health care and social assistance 4402; education and training 3274; accommodation and food services 2450; professional and technical services 2252; and construction 2412. There were only 713 jobs in manufacturing and 661 in wholesale trade.35


35 ABS Census 2016 ,Working Population Profile (2017)

114

30

713

39

2,412

661

704

337

672

715

2,252

848

893

5,428

2,450

3,274

4,402

537

1,282

- 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

Goods Producing


Mining

Manufacturing


Construction


Wholesale trade


Business Services






Government


In Person Sevices

Retail trade





Other services

Jobs by Industry 2016 - Manningham LGA (Persons)

35

2.4.4 Monash LGA

Monash LGA is a major centre of employment in the South East of Melbourne. It had 105,735 jobs located in the LGA in 2016.36 Of these jobs 23,309 (22%) were held by persons who lived and worked in the LGA and 82,426 (78%) were held by residents of other LGAs. A large proportion (54,218 or 67%) of employed residents travels to work in adjacent LGAs and to the Melbourne CBD.

Table 11. Employment Location of Residents 2016 – Monash LGA Monash LGA Employment Location of Residents 2016

Status No. %





Source: https://profile.id.com.au/monash/workers

Table 12. Residential Location of Workers 2016 – Monash LGA Monash LGA Residential Location of Workers 2016

Status No. %



Total Jobs/Workers in the area 105,735 100.0

Source: https://profile.id.com.au/monash/workers

Monash LGA has a high technology and knowledge industries base, which is reflected in the industry structure of jobs located in the area. Monash is a major industrial centre for manufacturing (11,082 jobs); wholesale trade (6546 jobs); and transport and warehousing (4229 jobs). Monash is also a major hub for health services (15,033 jobs) and education and training (13,637 jobs). This reflects Monash University (education and research) and Monash Medical Centre (health services and research). Professional, scientific and technical services is also a major sector (8717 jobs), reflecting business services, research and technical services.

Monash LGA’s high proportion of jobs in manufacturing has made it more sensitive to the structural changes occurring in that sector (including cessation of local car manufacturing). Between 2011 and 2016, a decline in manufacturing and wholesaling jobs has been offset by continued growth in services, including health services, education and professional and technical services. Construction jobs have increased due to the high level of infrastructure investment in transport, health and education.


36


2.4.5 Whitehorse LGA

Whitehorse is a major employment centre in the eastern suburbs had about 69,181 jobs located within the LGA in 2016.37 Of these jobs 19,968 (29%) were held by persons who lived and worked in the LGA and 49,213 (71%) were held by residents of other LGAs, who commuted to their jobs in Whitehorse. A large proportion (51,927 or 70%) of employed residents travel to work in adjacent LGAs and to the Melbourne CBD.

Table 13. Employment Location of Residents 2016 – Whitehorse LGA Whitehorse LGA

Employment Location of Residents 2016

Status No. %





Source: https://profile.id.com.au/whitehorse/workers

Table 14. Residential Location of Workers 2016 – Whitehorse LGA Whitehorse LGA Residential Location of Workers 2016

Status No. %



Total Jobs/Workers in the area 69,181 100.0

Source: https://profile.id.com.au/whitehorse/workers


164

63

11,082

719

7,580

6,546

4,229

1,835

2,727

1,638

8,717

3,794

2,984

10,821

4,589

13,637

15,033

1,075

3,134

- 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000

Goods Producing


Mining

Manufacturing


Construction


Wholesale trade


Business Services






Government


In Person Sevices

Retail trade





Other services

Jobs by Industry 2016 - Monash LGA (Persons)

37

Whitehorse combines an industrial base and a service economy. In the industrial sector there were 2463 jobs in manufacturing; 2983 in wholesale trade; and 1429 in transport and warehousing.38 Health and social assistance was the major employing sector (12,588 jobs), reflecting the health cluster comprising Eastern Health (Box Hill Hospital), Epworth Eastern and associated specialist and diagnostic services. Education and training is a major sector (8595 jobs) comprising schools education, Deakin University and Box Hill Institute. Whitehorse is a major regional hub for government services (4233) including the ATO and state government agencies. Retail is a major employer accounting for 7325 jobs, and accommodation and food service accounted for 3733 jobs. As a major regional centre – business services are significant: professional and technical services 5697 jobs; financial services 1490 jobs; and rental and real estate services 1269 jobs. The construction sector accounted for 3903 jobs in the LGA, reflecting the level of construction activity- particularly in Box Hill and other parts of the LGA. Between 2011 and 2016, falls in manufacturing and wholesaling jobs, have been offset by strong growth in services, including health, education, professional services, retail and food service.



71

18

2,463

774

3,903

2,983

1,429

2,019

1,490

1,269

5,697

2,844

4,233

7,325

3,733

8,595

12,588

937

3,727

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000

Goods Producing


Mining

Manufacturing


Construction


Wholesale trade


Business Services






Government


In Person Sevices

Retail trade





Other services

Jobs by Industry 2016 - Whitehorse LGA (Persons)

38

Key Issues • Monash is the major employment centre in the Gateway LLEN region, accounting for 89,723 jobs (51%) of the total 175,334

jobs located in the three LGAs of Manningham, Monash and Whitehorse.

• Monash and Whitehorse have a similar industry profile with manufacturing, wholesale, retail and health care and social assistance and education being the major employing sectors. Manningham has a different industry profile and has mainly a service economy (retail, health and social assistance, professional services, construction services.

• Manufacturing accounted for a significant proportion of jobs in Monash (11,082 jobs) and Whitehorse (2463) in 2016 and this makes these LGAs more sensitive to the structural changes occurring in the sector at a national and state level.

• Total manufacturing employment in the Gateway LLEN region fell by 3348 jobs in the 5 year period to 2016 (to 14,258) jobs) and has continued to decline in the last 2 years. Future employment is projected to be lower but workers will require higher skill levels. Businesses linked to the car industry (component suppliers and engineering businesses) have been impacted with the cessation of local assembly.

• Wholesale jobs have been lost in the region in the 2011-2016 period, with rationalisation of some businesses and relocation of others to industrial estates in western and northern area of Melbourne.

• The service sector has grown strongly in the region, particularly health services, education and training, professional services, and food services.

• The industry trends and outlooks in the Gateway LLEN region align with those being experiences at a national, state and metropolitan level. The industries are being affected by the same factors.

2.5 Unemployment in the Region

The following charts show unemployment for the LGAs in the Gateway LLEN Region for 2010 to 2018. While unemployment rates for Manningham and Whitehorse have experienced similar trends to the average for Victoria, the unemployment rate for Monash LGA has been well below the Victorian rate over the period.

More recently (June 2015 to June 2018) the number of unemployed persons in the Gateway LLEN region has been relatively stable.

In June 2018, Manningham (5.8%) and Whitehorse (6.0%) had unemployment rates above the Victorian rate (5.5%). Monash had a low unemployment rate of 3.2%.

Source: Small Area Labour Markets-June 2018, Department of Jobs & Small Business (September 2018), Smoothed Unemployment Rate (%) https://docs.jobs.gov.au/documents/lga-data-tables-small-area-labour-markets-september-quarter-2018 . Victoria. ABS 6202.0 Labour Force, Australia, Table 5. Labour force status by Sex, Victoria

5.8

3.2

6.0

4.8

5.5

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Manningham Monash Whitehorse Total Gateway Region Victoria

Unemployment Rates Gateway LLEN Region LGAs - June 2018 (%)

https://docs.jobs.gov.au/documents/lga-data-tables-small-area-labour-markets-september-quarter-2018

39

Source: Small Area Labour Markets-June 2018, Department of Jobs & Small Business (September 2018), Smoothed Unemployment Rate (%) https://docs.jobs.gov.au/documents/lga-data-tables-small-area-labour-markets-september-quarter-2018 Victoria - ABS 6202.0 Labour Force, Australia, Table 5. Labour force status by Sex, Victoria

Source: Small Area Labour Markets-June 2018, Department of Jobs & Small Business (September 2018), Smoothed Unemployment Rate (%) https://docs.jobs.gov.au/documents/lga-data-tables-small-area-labour-markets-september-quarter-2018

Key Issues • Gateway LLEN region unemployment rates have declined since June 2014 (Monash has been consistently low and stable).

Rates for Manningham and Whitehorse are in generally in line with those for Victoria.

• Youth unemployment rates in each LGA are substantially above these average unemployment rates for all persons.

• In a weakening labour market with limited jobs growth, there are fewer new employment opportunities (including apprenticeships) and young people and new entrants are often competing with older persons, who have both qualifications and work experience.

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Dec

-10

Feb

-11

Ap

r-11

Jun

-11

Au

g-11

Oct

-11

Dec

-11

Feb

-12

Ap

r-12

Jun

-12

Au

g-12

Oct

-12

Dec

-12

Feb

-13

Ap

r-13

Jun

-13

Au

g-13

Oct

-13

Dec

-13

Feb

-14

Ap

r-14

Jun

-14

Au

g-14

Oct

-14

Dec

-14

Feb

-15

Ap

r-15

Jun

-15

Au

g-15

Oct

-15

Dec

-15

Feb

-16

Ap

r-16

Jun

-16

Au

g-16

Oct

-16

Dec

-16

Feb

-17

Ap

r-17

Jun

-17

Au

g-17

Oct

-17

Dec

-17

Feb

-18

Ap

r-18

Jun

-18

Un

emp

Rat

e %

Dec-10

Mar-11

Jun-11

Sep-11

Dec-11

Mar-12

Jun-12

Sep-12

Dec-12

Mar-13

Jun-13

Sep-13

Dec-13

Mar-14

Jun-14

Sep-14

Dec-14

Mar-15

Jun-15

Sep-15

Dec-15

Mar-16

Jun-16

Sep-16

Dec-16

Mar-17

Jun-17

Sep-17

Dec-17

Mar-18

Jun-18

Manningham 4.2 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.7 4.6 4.9 5.7 6.4 6.8 6.7 6.3 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.7 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.7 6.0 5.8

Monash 3.5 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2

Whitehorse 4.7 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.8 4.7 4.9 5.6 6.3 6.7 6.7 6.4 6.1 6.2 6.4 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.8 6.2 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.2 6.0

Total Gateway Region 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.8 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.3 5.1 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.8

Victoria 4.8 4.4 4.7 5.3 5.2 5.8 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.9 6.3 6.5 6.6 6.8 6.4 6.2 6.0 6.3 6.0 5.7 5.7 5.8 6.0 6.2 5.9 6.0 6.1 5.2 5.5

Unemployment Rate - Gateway LLEN Region Comparisons 2010-2018 (Persons %)

3,863

3,448

12,850

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Au

g-15

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar

-16

Ap

r-16

May

-16

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-16

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec

-16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar

-17

Ap

r-17

May

-17

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Au

g-17

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7

Dec

-17

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-18

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18

Manningham 3,815 3,966 3,831 3,794 3,704 3,668 4,008 3,894 3,891 3,879 3,797 3,950 3,863

Monash 3,717 3,628 3,763 3,816 3,848 3,809 3,571 3,486 3,294 3,320 3,405 3,411 3,448

Whitehorse 5,334 5,555 5,382 5,283 5,229 5,153 5,567 5,467 5,471 5,504 5,483 5,659 5,539

Gateway Region 12,866 13,149 12,976 12,893 12,781 12,630 13,146 12,847 12,656 12,703 12,685 13,020 12,850

Unemployed Persons Gateway LLEN Region 2015-2018 (no.)



40

2.6 Employment Trends


Analysis of jobs in each of the LGAs between 2011 and 2016 indicates some key trends:

• Overall the total number of jobs in the region increased by 28,568 to 203,902 jobs There were increases in all 3 LGAs, in Manningham (+4755) , Monash (+16,063) and Whitehorse (+7750).

• All three LGAs experienced a decline in jobs in several sectors: manufacturing jobs (total decline -3348) as well as experiencing loss of Wholesale Trade (-3340).

• On the positive side these declines were offset by strong jobs growth in several sectors. All three LGAs saw a net increase in jobs services in the Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (+2651), Health Care and Social Assistance (+ 6382) and Construction sectors (+3705).

Table 15. Jobs in Gateway LLEN Region 2011and 2016

Jobs in Gateway Region 2016

2011

Industry Sector

Man

nin

gh

am

Mo

nas

h

Wh

iteh

ors

e

To

tal R

egio

n

Man

nin

gh

am

Mo

nas

h

Wh

iteh

ors

e

To

tal R

egio

n

Goods Producing Industries Agriculture, forestry and fishing 114 164 71 349 80 78 42 200

Mining 30 63 18 111 12 64 24 100

Manufacturing 713 11,082 2,463 14,258 876 12,906 3,824 17,606

Electricity, gas, water and waste services 39 719 774 1,532 30 753 1,124 1,907

Construction 2,412 7,580 3,903 13,895 1,756 5,503 2,931 10,190

Total 3,308 19,608 7,229 30,145 2,754 19,304 7,945 30,003

Goods Related Services Wholesale trade 661 6,546 2,983 10,190 860 8,507 4,162 13,529

Transport, postal and warehousing 704 4,229 1,429 6,362 605 3,230 1,351 5,186

Total 1,365 10,775 4,412 16,552 1,465 11,737 5,513 18,715

Business Services

Information media and telecommunications 337 1,835 2,019 4,191 275 1,764 1,850 3,889

Financial and insurance services 672 2,727 1,490 4,889 703 2,576 1,409 4,688

Rental, hiring and real estate services 715 1,638 1,269 3,622 510 1,201 829 2,540

Professional, scientific and technical services 2,252 8,717 5,697 16,666 1,974 7,062 4,979 14,015

Administrative and support services 848 3,794 2,844 7,486 524 2,626 2,600 5,750

Total 4,824 18,711 13,319 36,854 3,986 15,229 11,667 30,882

Government

Public administration and safety 893 2,984 4,233 8,110 759 2,724 4,240 7,723

In-Person Services

Retail trade 5,428 10,821 7,325 23,574 4,926 9,649 7,074 21,649

Accommodation and food services 2,450 4,589 3,733 10,772 2,030 3,287 2,699 8,016

Education and training 3,274 13,637 8,595 25,506 2,708 11,200 7,307 21,215

Health care and social assistance 4,402 15,033 12,588 32,023 3,609 11,908 10,124 25,641

Arts and recreation services 537 1,075 937 2,549 483 835 765 2,083

Other services 1,282 3,134 3,727 8,143 1,158 2,732 3,486 7,376

Total 17,373 48,289 36,905 102,567 14,914 39,611 31,455 85,980

Inadequately described/Not stated 1,152 5,425 3,073 9,650 298 1,118 615 2,031

Total 28,931 105,786 69,185 203,902 24,176 89,723 61,435 175,334


41

Source: ABS Census 2011 & 2016, Working Population Profile .




2011 24,176 89,723 61,435 175,334

2016 28,931 105,786 69,185 203,902

24,176

89,723

61,435

175,334

28,931

105,786

69,185

203,902

15,00035,00055,00075,00095,000

115,000135,000155,000175,000195,000215,000

Jobs in Gateway LLEN Region 2011 & 2016


Increase 2011-16 4,755 16,063 7,750 28,568

4,755

16,063

7,750

28,568

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Increase in Jobs - Gateway LLEN Region 2011-2016 (no.)

19.717.9

12.6

16.3

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0


Increase in Jobs - Gateway LLEN Region 2011-2016 (%)

42


34

18

-163

9

656

-199

99

62

-31

205

278

324

134

502

420

566

793

54

124

854

4,755

86

-1

-1,824

-34

2,077

-1,961

999

71

151

437

1,655

1,168

260

1,172

1,302

2,437

3,125

240

402

4,307

16,063

29

-6

-1,361

-350

972

-1,179

78

169

81

440

718

244

-7

251

1,034

1,288

2,464

172

241

2,458

7,750

-4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000


Mining

Manufacturing


Construction

Wholesale trade








Retail trade





Other services

Inadequately described/Not stated

Total Jobs

Job Trends - Gateway LLEN Region 2011-2016 (Jobs no.)

Manningham

Monash

Whitehorse

43


During 2006 to 2011 the total number of jobs in the Manningham LGA increased 4755 (19.7%). Several sectors saw strong increases in employment such as Health Care and Social Assistance (+793 jobs, increase of 21.9%), Retail Trade (+ 502 jobs, increase of 10.2%), and Education and Training (+566, increase of 20.9%). Other sectors to grow were Information Media and Telecommunications (+62) and Professional Services (+278). There were declines in Manufacturing (-163) and Wholesale Trade (-199). The growth in retail jobs reflects the continued expansion of Westfield Doncaster, and the increase in health and social assistance reflects growth in health services and aged care services in the LGA.



34

18

-163

9

656

-199

99

62

-31

205

278

324

134

502

420

566

793

54

124

854

4,755

-1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000


Mining

Manufacturing


Construction

Wholesale trade








Retail trade





Other services


Total Jobs

Jobs Trends 2011-16 Manningham LGA (change no.)

42.5

150.0-18.6

30.0

37.4-23.1

16.4

22.5

-4.4

40.2

14.1

61.8

17.7

10.2

20.7

20.9

22.0

11.2

10.7

19.7

-40.0 -20.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0


Mining

Manufacturing


Construction

Wholesale trade








Retail trade





Other services

Total Jobs

Job Trends 2011-16 Manningham LGA (% Change)

44

2.6.3 Monash LGA

Monash LGA experienced an increase in the total number of jobs from 2011 to 2016 of 16,063 - an increase of 17.9%. Major declines in jobs were in Manufacturing (-1824 or 14.1%); and Wholesale Trade (-1961 or 23.1%). Health Care and Social Assistance was major area of jobs growth in Monash with an increase of 3125 jobs (up 26.2%). Education and Training increased by 2437 or 21.8%. Professional, Scientific and Technical Services and Construction sectors also increased employment with the addition of 1655 jobs (+23.4%) and 2077 jobs (+37.7%) respectively. There was significant growth in Retail (1172 or 12.1%) and Accommodation and Food Service (1302 or 39.6%) Employment growth in Health Care and Social Assistance reflects the expansion of the Monash Medical Centre and associated medical services and the growth in aged care services. This growth is opening up professional jobs and allied health jobs. Education expansion is mainly the universities and TAFE. Manufacturing employment will continue to experience pressure over the long term due to continued international competition, cost pressures and the change in the automotive sector.



86-1

-1,824-34

2,077-1,961

99971151

4371,655

1,168260

1,1721,302

2,4373,125

240402

4,30716,063

-4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000

Agriculture, forestry and fishingMining

ManufacturingElectricity, gas, water and waste services

ConstructionWholesale trade

Transport, postal and warehousingInformation media and telecommunications

Financial and insurance servicesRental, hiring and real estate services

Professional, scientific and technical servicesAdministrative and support services

Public administration and safetyRetail trade

Accommodation and food servicesEducation and training

Health care and social assistanceArts and recreation services

Other servicesInadequately described/Not stated

Total Jobs

Job Trends 2011-16 Monash LGA (change no.)

110.3-1.6

-14.1

-4.5 37.7-23.1

30.94.0

5.936.4

23.444.5

9.512.1

39.621.8

26.228.7

14.717.9

-40.0 -20.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0

Agriculture, forestry and fishingMining

ManufacturingElectricity, gas, water and waste services

ConstructionWholesale trade

Transport, postal and warehousingInformation media and telecommunications

Financial and insurance servicesRental, hiring and real estate services

Professional, scientific and technical servicesAdministrative and support services

Public administration and safetyRetail trade

Accommodation and food servicesEducation and training

Health care and social assistanceArts and recreation services

Other servicesTotal Jobs

Job Trends 2011-16 Monash LGA (% Change)

45


Whitehorse LGA had an increase of 7750 jobs from 2011 to 2016, which equated to 12.6% growth in total jobs. The main growth in jobs occurred in several sectors: Education and Training increased by 1388 (up 17.6%); Health Care and Social Assistance increased by 2464 jobs (up 24.3%) and Construction increased by 972 jobs (up 33.2%). There was growth in jobs across a number of other areas of services, including Retail (+251); Accommodation and Food Services (+1034); and Professional Services (718). Similar to Monash LGA, job declines were seen in several sectors: Manufacturing (-1361 jobs or -35.6%); Wholesale Trade (-1179 jobs or -28.3%). This reflects structural change occurring in industrial sectors and contraction in local manufacturing due to closures and businesses relocating. The major growth in the health sector and education sector over the past 5 years has increased the number of local professional and para-professional jobs in the LGA.



29

-6-1,361

-350

972-1,179

78

169

81

440

718

244

-7

251

1,034

1,288

2,464

172

241

2,458

7,750

-2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000


Mining

Manufacturing


Construction

Wholesale trade








Retail trade





Other services


Total Jobs

Job Trends 2011-16 Whitehorse LGA (change no.)

42.5

150.0-18.6

30.0

37.4-23.1

16.4

22.5

-4.4

40.2

14.1

61.8

17.7

10.2

20.7

20.9

22.0

11.2

10.7

19.7

-40.0 -20.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0


Mining

Manufacturing


Construction

Wholesale trade








Retail trade





Other services

Total Jobs

Job Trends 2011-16 Manningham LGA (% Change)

46

2.7 Employed Residents

This section examines residents of the region, who are in employment and their industries of employment. While some employed residents hold jobs that are in the local government area in which they live, the majority commute to their jobs in adjacent local government areas and to other employment centres in the broader Melbourne metropolitan area, including the Melbourne CBD.

The industries that residents are employed in generally reflect a combination of their qualifications, skill levels and employment experience, and the availability of jobs that match these attributes.


The total number of employed residents in the Gateway LGAs was 207,896 in 2016. This compares with a total of 203,902 jobs located in the region - a difference of 3994.

Source: ABS Census 2016, General Community Profile (residents)

Source: ABS Census 2016, General Community Profile (residents) and Working Population Profile (jobs)

25%

39%

36%


Manningham

Monash

Whitehorse

74,705

80,373

52,818

52,818

80,373

74,705

207,896

28,931

105,786

69,185

203,902

-23,887

25,413

-5,520

-3,994

-50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000

Manningham

Monash

Whitehorse

Total Region

Employed Residents & Jobs Gateway LLEN Region LGAs 2016

Jobs -Employed Residents

Jobs 2016

Employed Residents 2016

47


130

89

2,950

421

4,067

2,196

1,721

1,165

2,814

1,186

5,570

1,823

2,109

6,281

3,682

4,559

6,705

946

1,925

2,479

52,818

201

109

5,744

755

4,651

3,448

2,903

2,000

4,267

1,477

8,918

3,000

3,189

8,594

5,506

7,956

9,725

1,347

2,599

3,968

80,373

180

118

4,191

699

4,451

2,828

2,271

1,929

4,024

1,401

8,403

2,690

3,603

7,557

5,237

7,872

10,040

1,408

2,731

3,083

74,705

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000


Mining

Manufacturing


Construction

Wholesale trade








Retail trade





Other services


Total

Employed Residents by Industry - Gateway LLEN Region LGAs 2016 (no.)

Manningham

Monash

Whitehorse

48



8,860

15,032

5,527

4,705

7,580

5,885

1,347

2,977

908

52,818

11,025

24,446

8,366

7,195

11,435

8,117

2,895

5,522

1,369

80,373

10,401

23,731

7,587

7,246

10,375

7,324

2,118

4,795

1,133

74,705

30,286

63,209

21,480

19,146

29,390

21,326

6,360

13,294

3,410

207,896

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000

Managers

Professionals

Technicians & Trades Workers

Community & Personal Service Workers

Clerical & Admin Workers

Sales Workers

Machinery Operators & Drivers

Labourers

Not Stated

Total

Occupations of Employed Residents - Gateway LLEN Region LGAs 2016 (no.)

Manningham

Monash

Whitehorse

Total Region

16.8

28.5

10.5

8.9

14.4

11.1

2.6

5.6

1.7

13.7

30.4

10.4

9.0

14.2

10.1

3.6

6.9

1.7

13.9

31.8

10.2

9.7

13.9

9.8

2.8

6.4

1.5

14.6

30.4

10.3

9.2

14.1

10.3

3.1

6.4

1.6

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0

Managers

Professionals

Technicians & Trades Workers

Community & Personal Service Workers


Sales Workers

Machinery Operators & Drivers

Labourers

Not Stated

Occupations of Employed Residents in Gateway LLEN Region LGAs 2016 ( share %)

Manningham

Monash

Whitehorse

Total Region

49


Manningham had a total of 52,818 residents, who were in employment in 2016. Manufacturing (2950 or 5.5%), Retail Trade (6281 or 11.9%), Health Care and Social Assistance (6705 or 12.7%) and Professional and Technical services (5570 or 10.5%) were the top employing industries for residents.

The main occupation groups of Manningham residents were Professionals (15,032 or 28.5%), Managers (8860 or 16.8%), Clerical and Administrative Workers (7580 or 14.4%) and Technicians and Trades Workers (5527 or 10.5%).

This pattern reflects Manningham’s role as a residential area which attracts professionals, managers, and clerical and administrative workers, who work in the broader regional labour market – commuting to jobs in adjacent LGAs and in the Melbourne CBD.

Source: ABS Census 2016, Working Population Profile & General Community Profile (residents)

130

89

2,950

421

4,067

2,196

1,721

1,165

2,814

1,186

5,570

1,823

2,109

6,281

3,682

4,559

6,705

946

1,925

2,479

114

30

713

39

2,412

661

704

337

672

715

2,252

848

893

5,428

2,450

3,274

4,402

537

1,282

1,152

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000


Mining

Manufacturing


Construction

Wholesale trade


Information media and…



Professional, scientific and technical…



Retail trade





Other services


Employed Residents & Jobs 2016 - Manningham LGA (no.)

Manningham - Employed Residents

Manningham - Jobs

50

2.7.3 Monash LGA

Monash LGA had 80,373 residents in employment in 2016. Health Care and Social Assistance (9725 or 12.1%), Retail Trade (8594 or 10.7%), Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (8918 or 11.1%) and Manufacturing (5744 or 7.1%) were the four top employing industries for Monash residents.

The significant number of residents employed in the health care reflects persons working in hospitals in Monash LGA and in other LGAs.

The four largest occupation groups of Monash residents were: Professionals (24,446 or 30.4%); Clerical and Administrative Workers (11,435 or 14.3%); Managers (11,025 or 13.7% and Technicians and Trades Workers (8366 or 10.4%).


201

109

5,744

755

4,651

3,448

2,903

2,000

4,267

1,477

8,918

3,000

3,189

8,594

5,506

7,956

9,725

1,347

2,599

3,968

164

63

11,082

719

7,580

6,546

4,229

1,835

2,727

1,638

8,717

3,794

2,984

10,821

4,589

13,637

15,033

1,075

3,134

5,425

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000


Mining

Manufacturing


Construction

Wholesale trade








Retail trade





Other services


Employed Residents & Jobs 2016 - Monash LGA

Monash Employed Residents

Monash Jobs

51


Whitehorse LGA had 74,705 residents in employment in 2011. Health Care and Social Assistance (10,040 or 13.4%), Professional and Technical Services (8403 or 11.2%), Retail Trade (7557 or 10.1%) and Education and Training (7872 or 10.5%) are the top four industries that residents are employed in.

The main occupation groups of Whitehorse residents were: Professionals (23,731 or 31.8%); Clerical and Administrative Workers (10,375 or 13.9%); Managers (10,401 or 13.9%); and Technicians and Trades Workers (7587 or 10.1%),


Key Issues • A significant share of Gateway LLEN Region’s residents are employed in the sectors of Manufacturing, Construction and

Retail Trade.

• Structural changes in Manufacturing have seen job reductions. Construction has been strong since 2011 with high activity in housing, commercial and infrastructure sectors. These pressures are expected to continue in the mid-term.

• Demand in the service sectors has been high and this is reflected in increased number of residents being employed in sectors including Health Care and Social Assistance; Education and Training; Professional Services; and Food Service.

• 2019 may see some weakening in the domestic economy and a slight slowing in recent jobs growth.

• Young people continue to be employed in entry level jobs in retail (mainly food) and food services.

• With a slowing in the labour market, there are typically fewer apprentice/trainee positions and entry level jobs for young people.

180

118

4,191

699

4,451

2,828

2,271

1,929

4,024

1,401

8,403

2,690

3,603

7,557

5,237

7,872

10,040

1,408

2,731

3,083

71

18

2,463

774

3,903

2,983

1,429

2,019

1,490

1,269

5,697

2,844

4,233

7,325

3,733

8,595

12,588

937

3,727

3,073

0 5,000 10,000 15,000


Mining

Manufacturing


Construction

Wholesale trade








Retail trade





Other services


Employed Residents & Jobs 2016 - Whitehorse LGA

Whitehorse Employed Residents

Whitehorse Jobs

52

2.8 Schooling and Qualifications

2.8.1 Highest Year of School Completed

Overall there is a relatively high level of Year 12 attainment in the Gateway LLEN region. All three LGAs were above the rate for Greater Melbourne (61.7%).

The data in the charts below are for all persons (15 and over), who are no longer attending primary or secondary school. It shows that 66.5% of persons aged 15 years and over in Manningham, 70.5% in Monash and 69.9% in Whitehorse had attained Year 12 or an equivalent qualification compared to 61.7% for Greater Melbourne. 39

Government policies at national and state levels have focused on increasing Year 12 or equivalent attainments. Data for persons aged 20-24 years show Year 12 completions at 89.4% for Manningham, 89.8% for Monash and 88.4% for Whitehorse, in 2016. All were substantially above the Melbourne Metropolitan area average of 80.2%.

This education outcome data reflects a combination of demographics of the local government areas covering age (older persons often left school earlier); the occupation mix of residents (eg. many persons in trades occupations and lower skill jobs will have left school prior to Year 12) and the socio-economic characteristics of the area.

The data for 20-24 year olds shows almost 90% of young people in the Gateway LLEN region have completed Year 12 or equivalent. All these completion rates are higher than those in 2011, reflecting more young people remaining at school to complete Year 12.

Source: ABS Census 2016, General Community Profile (Residents) Table G16 Highest Year of School Completed by Age by Sex

39 ABS Census 2016, General Community Profile (Residents) G16 Highest Year of School Completed by Age By Sex

61,555

7,829

8,155

3,205

5,185

1,171

5,485

103,772

10,037

10,836

4,312

7,182

1,784

9,254

89,874

10,356

10,117

4,023

5,248

1,580

7,291

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000

Year 12 or equivalent




Year 8 or below

Did not go to school

Highest year of school not stated

Highest Level Schooling Gateway LLEN Region LGAs 2016 - Residents/Persons 15 & over (no.)

Manningham

Monash

Whitehorse

53

Source: ABS Census 2016, General Community Profile (residents). Table G16 Highest Year of School Completed by Age by Sex


Key Issues • Overall Year 12 completion rates have continued to increase in the 5 years to 2016. In 2016 almost 90% of 20-24 year olds in

the Gateway LLEN region had completed Year 12 or equivalent.

• Year 12 completions are important for young people as most jobs now require Year 12 as a minimum, and the number of lower skill entry level jobs has continued to decline across all industry sectors (or be taken up by students working part-time).

• Early school leavers face major problems in securing employment and competing for jobs in the current and future labour market.

• There is a need to continue to improve education completion rates of young people for those who become disengaged and disconnected.

• Programs like those being implemented by the Gateway LLEN, which encourage retention, develop pathways and re-engage early leavers, are important.

66.5

8.5

8.8

3.5

5.6

1.3

5.9

70.5

6.8

7.4

2.9

4.9

1.2

6.3

69.9

8.1

7.9

3.1

4.1

1.2

5.7

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0





Year 8 or below



Highest Level Schooling Gateway LLEN Region LGAs 2016 - Residents/Persons 15 & over (%)

Manningham

Monash

Whitehorse

89.4

3.2

2.9

0.4

0.4

0.3

3.4

89.8

2.4

1.8

0.8

0.3

0.2

4.7

88.4

3.2

2.3

0.9

0.5

0.4

4.3

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0





Year 8 or below



Highest Level Schooling Gateway LLEN Region LGAs 2016 - Residents/Persons 20-24 (%)

Manningham

Monash

Whitehorse

54

2.8.2 Highest Year of School Completed - Male/Female

Over the last decade or more, females have tended to have a higher level of Year 12 (or equivalent) completions than males in all three LGAs. This is a national trend in education outcomes, and also reflects the fact that some males leave prior to year 12 to take up apprenticeships and males are more likely to disengage.

• Manningham, for 15-24 year olds: 88.5% of females had completed Year 12 compared with 84.1% of males.

• Monash for 15-24 year olds, 89.0% of females had completed Year 12 compared with 86.3% of males.

• Whitehorse, for 15-24 year olds 87.5% of females had completed Year 12 compared with 84.9% of males.

Data for all persons aged over 15 years, reflects a past historical situation, where males were more likely to complete Year 12 or equivalent schooling.


2.8.3 Young People and School Completions

Highest Year of School Completed

The following charts show the highest level of school completed for males and females aged 15 -19 years. The data provides a snapshot of the Year 12 or equivalent attainment for younger people in all three LGAs.

• Monash had the highest proportion of people with a Year 12 or equivalent qualification at 83.2% for females and 78.9% for males.

• For Manningham LGA 82.0 of females and 74.0% of males had completed Year 12.

• Whitehorse had lower rate of completions – 79.6 % for females and 73.4% for males.

84.1

88.5

67.9

65.2

86.3

89.0

71.6

69.5

83.6

87.5

70.9

69.1

84.9

88.4

70.4

68.3

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0

Year 12 or equivalent - Males 15-24

Year 12 or equivalent - Females 15-24

Year 12 or equivalent - All Males 15+

Year 12 or equivalent - All Females 15+

Year 12 or Equivalent Gateway LLEN Region LGAs 2016 - Residents 15 & over (%)

Manningham

Monash

Whitehorse

Total Region

55




74.0

78.9

73.4

82.0

83.2

79.6

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0

Manningham

Monash

Whitehorse

Year 12 or Equivalent - Persons 15-19 Years 2016 (%)

Males 15-19

Females 15-19

1049

109

97

31

15

6

120

1099

49

58

19

6

3

112

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200





Year 8 or below



Highest Level of School - Aged 15-19 Manningham LGA 2016 (no.)

Males 15-19 Manningham

Females 15-19 Manningham

74.0

7.7

6.8

2.2

1.1

0.4

8.5

82.0

3.7

4.3

1.4

0.4

0.2

8.4

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0





Year 8 or below



Highest Level of School - Aged 15-19 Manningham LGA 2016 (%)



56

Source: ABS Census 2016, General Community Profile (residents) Table G16 Highest Year of School Completed by Age by Sex



2381

177

148

38

16

10

259

2538

128

103

30

17

6

228

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000





Year 8 or below



Highest Level of School - Aged 15-19 Monash LGA 2016 (no.)

Males 15-19 Monash

Females 15-19 Monash

78.9

5.9

4.9

1.3

0.5

0.3

8.6

83.2

4.2

3.4

1.0

0.6

0.2

7.5

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0





Year 8 or below



Highest Level of School - Aged 15-19 Monash LGA 2016 (%)

Males 15-19 Monash


1555

157

132

63

28

6

170

1643

102

82

35

27

0

177

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800





Year 8 or below



Highest Level of School - Aged 15-19 Whitehorse LGA 2016 (no.)

Males 15-19 Whitehorse

Females 15-19 Whitehorse

57


Key Issues • The Year 12 completion data reflects the national trend of better educational outcomes by young females compared with

young males. It also reflects some males going into apprenticeships prior to Year 12.

• Overall completion rates are improving in all age groups – this was the case between 2011 and 2016. This trend means that those persons not completing Year 12 will be increasingly left out of job opportunities.

• The lower rate of completions (particularly for males) indicates a need for transitions support for young people to improve educational attainment. Males generally remain more vulnerable to lower Year 12 completions across the region.

2.8.4 Post School Qualifications

All Residents

The following charts show the highest post school qualification completed by residents aged 15 years and over in the Gateway LLEN region LGAs.

Bachelor degree qualifications were the most attained qualification level for all three LGAs with around 36% residents aged 15 and over holding degrees. Advanced Diplomas/Diplomas were the second most attained qualification level for all three LGAs - Manningham (15.7%) and Monash (14.9%) and Whitehorse (15.9%).

73.4

7.4

6.2

3.0

1.3

0.3

8.0

79.6

4.9

4.0

1.7

1.3

0.0

8.6

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0





Year 8 or below



Highest Level of School - Aged 15-19 Whitehorse LGA 2016 (%)



58

Source: ABS Census 2016, General Community Profile (residents). Table G46 Non-School Qualification: Level of Education) by Age by Sex

7,264

14,741

12,050

2,705

3,936

4,647

21,529

34,768

31,684

9,495

14,372

13,733

9,571

13,053

12,086

555

857

806

1,711

2,128

1,990

11,839

16,041

14,880

946

1,553

1,195

6,635

10,835

8,422

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000

Manningham

Monash

Whitehorse

Post School Qualifications Residents Total -Gateway LLEN Region LGAs 2016 (No.)

Postgraduate Degree Level

Graduate Diploma and Graduate Certificate Level

Bachelor Degree Level

Advanced Diploma and Diploma Level

Certificate III & IV Level(c)

Certificate I & II Level(d)

Certificate Level, nfd

Total Certificate

Level of education inadequately described

Level of education not stated

59


Qualifications - Males and Females

The male/female split for each qualification level and LGA is shown in the following charts. Females have a greater incidence of higher education qualifications and males are more likely to have VET qualifications (in apprentice trades).

• Bachelor Degrees were the most attained qualification in the three LGAs and females accounted for the largest share of degree holders. In Manningham there were 11,333 females and 10,204 males with Bachelor Degrees – 33.8% of males and 37.5% of females had Bachelor Degrees. In Monash there were 18,093 females and 16,675 males with Bachelor Degrees – 34.4% of males and 37.9% of females had Bachelor Degrees. In Whitehorse there were 17,074 females and 14,610 males with Bachelor Degrees – 34.4% of males and 38.6% of females had Bachelor Degrees. Postgraduate qualifications are also significant in each of the LGAs.

• In Manningham there were 6719 males and 2846 females with Certificate III & IV Level qualifications (22.3% of males had these qualifications and 9.4% of females). In Monash. There were 9005 males and 4048 females with Certificate III & IV Level qualifications (18.6% of males had these qualifications and 8.5% of females). In Whitehorse there were 8304 males and 3782 females with Certificate III & IV Level qualifications (19.6% of males had these qualifications and 8.6% of females).

12.0

15.3

13.9

4.5

4.1

5.4

35.6

36.1

36.6

15.7

14.9

15.9

15.8

13.6

14.0

0.9

0.9

0.9

2.8

2.2

2.3

19.6

16.7

17.2

1.6

1.6

1.4

11.0

11.3

9.7

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0

Manningham

Monash

Whitehorse

Post School Qualifications Residents Total -Gateway LLEN Region LGAs 2016 (%)








Total Certificate



60




3,906

1,039

10,204

4,270

6,719

188

613

7,520

418

2,808

3,359

1,663

11,333

5,227

2,846

366

1,100

4,316

534

3,825

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000








Total Certificate



Post School Qualifications -Manningham LGA 2016 (No.)

Manningham Males Manningham Females

13.0

3.4

33.8

14.2

22.3

0.6

2.0

24.9

1.4

9.3

11.1

5.5

37.5

17.3

9.4

1.2

3.6

14.3

1.8

12.6

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0








Total Certificate



Post School Qualifications -Manningham LGA 2016 (%.)


7,906

1,552

16,675

6,533

9,005

321

788

10,116

744

4,967

6,835

2,384

18,093

7,839

4,048

536

1,340

5,925

809

5,868

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000








Total Certificate



Post School Qualifications -Monash LGA 2016 (No.)

Monash Males Monash Females

61




Key Issues • The population in the three LGAs has a significant higher education base. This reflects the demographics of the LGAs and

the presence of health sector and education sector jobs in the region.

• Vocational skills base is significant, with Certificate III and IV the most attained qualification level for all three LGAs in 2011 and males accounting for the largest share of these.

• These patterns also reflect demographic patterns and socio-economic structure of the LGAs. The industrial economics of Monash and Whitehorse have a higher number of persons with VET qualifications.(eg. tradespersons and technicians)

• Looking to the future- skills diversification and attainment of higher level qualifications (in both vocational and higher education streams) will be required as the skill requirements of jobs will continue to increase.

16.3

3.2

34.4

13.5

18.6

0.7

1.6

20.9

1.5

10.2

14.3

5.0

37.9

16.4

8.5

1.1

2.8

12.4

1.7

12.3

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0








Total Certificate



Post School Qualifications -Monash LGA 2016 (%)


6,228

1,720

14,610

6,212

8,304

316

778

9,396

500

3,764

5,822

2,927

17,074

7,521

3,782

490

1,212

5,484

695

4,658

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000








Total Certificate



Post School Qualifications -Whitehorse LGA 2016 (No.)

Whitehorse Males Whitehorse Females

14.7

4.1

34.4

14.6

19.6

0.7

1.8

22.1

1.2

8.9

13.2

6.6

38.6

17.0

8.6

1.1

2.7

12.4

1.6

10.5

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0








Total Certificate



Post School Qualifications -Whitehorse LGA 2016 (%)


62

Post School Qualifications - Young Persons 15-24

For younger persons aged 15-24 years, 41.5% of Manningham residents, 43.2% of Monash residents and 39.5% of Whitehorse residents had a bachelor degree qualification. For Certificate III or Certificate IV qualifications the shares were 18.3% of Manningham residents, 13.8% of Monash residents and 17.4% of Whitehorse residents.



Post School Qualifications – Young Males and Females

The following charts show the qualifications data from the ABS Census 2011 for 15 to 24 year olds males and females. A higher proportion of Certificate level qualifications are held by males and a higher proportion of bachelor degrees are held by females.

159

315

231

30

93

81

1,674

4,071

2,869

581

1,534

1,325

738

1,304

1,263

92

189

165

82

147

122

919

1,635

1,549

40

156

88

631

1,619

1,126

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500

Persons 15-24

Persons 15-24

Persons 15-24

Man

nin

gham

Mo

nas

hW

hit

eho

rse

Post School Qualifications Residents 15-24 - Gateway LLEN Region LGAs 2016 (no.)


Graduate Diploma and Graduate CertificateLevel






Total Certificate



3.9

3.3

3.2

0.7

1.0

1.1

41.5

43.2

39.5

14.4

16.3

18.3

18.3

13.8

17.4

2.3

2.0

2.3

2.0

1.6

1.7

22.8

17.4

21.3

1.0

1.7

1.2

15.7

17.2

15.5

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0

Persons 15-24

Persons 15-24

Persons 15-24

Man

nin

gham

Mo

nas

hW

hit

eho

rse

Post School Qualifications Residents 15-24 - Gateway LLEN Region LGAs 2016 (% share)








Total Certificate



63

• Vocational qualifications: Males – Manningham had a much greater proportion of 15 to 24 year olds with Certificate III & IV Level qualifications (23.2%) compared to Whitehorse (21.0%) and Monash (17.1%). Females – Manningham (13.5%) and Whitehorse (13.8%) had a higher share of 15 to 24 year olds with Certificate III & IV Level qualifications compared to Monash (10.5%).

• Higher education: Females – Manningham (45.3%) and Monash (46.9%) had a higher percentage of 15 to 24 year olds with bachelor degrees compared to Whitehorse (43.0%). For males – 37.8% in Manningham, 39.5% in Monash and 36.0% in Whitehorse had bachelor degrees.



60

9

756

280

464

45

33

547

25

325

99

21

918

301

274

47

49

372

15

306

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000





Certificate Level:




Total Certificate



Post School Qualifications - Manningham LGA 15-24 Years 15-24 2016 (no.)

Manningham Males 15-24 Manningham Females 15-24

3.0

0.4

37.8

14.0

23.2

2.2

1.6

27.3

1.2

16.2

4.9

1.0

45.3

14.8

13.5

2.3

2.4

18.4

0.7

15.1

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0





Certificate Level:




Total Certificate



Post School Qualifications - Manningham LGA 15-24 Years 2016 (%)


64



147

34

1,872

790

811

88

71

964

73

860

168

59

2,199

744

493

101

76

671

83

759

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500





Certificate Level:




Total Certificate



Post School Qualifications 15-24 Years - Monash LGA 2016 (no.)

Monash Males 15-24 Monash Females 15-24

3.1

0.7

39.5

16.7

17.1

1.9

1.5

20.4

1.5

18.2

3.6

1.3

46.9

15.9

10.5

2.2

1.6

14.3

1.8

16.2

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0





Certificate Level:




Total Certificate



Post School Qualifications 15-24 Years - Monash LGA 2016 (% Share)


65



Key Issues • Service sector jobs and advanced manufacturing jobs available in the region and more broadly in the Greater Melbourne

area continue to require increasing skill levels that need high education or vocational qualifications.

• Females have a higher levels incidence of degree qualifications, and this is reflected in the occupations and sectors that they are employed in (eg. health and education sectors, which are major employers of women). These sectors have experienced strong jobs growth at a national, state and regional level in the 2011-2016 period.

• Males are more likely than females to have certificate level qualifications, and to be employed in skilled trades and technical occupations. The industries that employ these occupations tend to be subject to cyclical fluctuations (eg. construction) and structural change (eg. manufacturing).

• The three LGAs that make up the Gateway LLEN Region have good access to universities and TAFE institutes and a wide range of course options.

• While education outcomes are high in the region (degrees and VET certificates), there is a need to continue to assist young people to develop clear education/training/employment pathways (covering both higher education and vocational education paths) and to implement programs for those who are disengaged.

94

18

1,293

649

756

95

58

907

47

592

137

63

1,576

676

507

70

64

642

41

534

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800





Certificate Level:




Total Certificate



Post School Qualifications 15-24 Years - Whitehorse LGA 2016 (no.)

Whitehorse Males 15-24 Whitehorse Females 15-24

2.6

0.5

36.0

18.1

21.0

2.6

1.6

25.2

1.3

16.5

3.7

1.7

43.0

18.4

13.8

1.9

1.7

17.5

1.1

14.6

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0





Certificate Level:




Total Certificate



Post School Qualifications 15-24 Years - Whitehorse LGA 2016 (% Share)


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2.8.5 Field of Study

ABS Census 2016 data is available on the main field of study for the highest qualification completed by

residents.40 This data provides additional insight into the skills base of residents, some of the differences

between LGAs and differences in qualifications between males and females.

• For Monash, Whitehorse and Manningham LGAs the top five fields of study were: Management and Commerce; Engineering and Related Technologies; Society and Culture; Health; and Education.

• The data shows the major differences between males and females in terms of fields of study. For all three LGAs, Engineering and Related Technologies and Information Technology were largely qualifications that were attained by males, whereas qualifications in Society and Culture, Health, and Education were predominately held by females.

• Management and Commerce qualifications were more evenly spread between males and females.

This qualifications pattern reflects the occupation and industry distribution of males and females in employment. Males are concentrated in trades and technical jobs in manufacturing , building and construction and other industrial sectors and females hold most of the professional (eg. nursing) and para-professional jobs (allied health and support roles) in the health and social assistance sector and hold most of the teaching positions in the education sector (schools).

Source: ABS Census 2016, General Community Profile (residents), Table G47 Non-School Qualification: Field Of Study by Age by Sex


40 ABS Census 2016, General Community Profile (residents), Table G47 Non-School Qualification: Field Of Study By Age By Sex

1,360

2,179

7,291

2,577

356

1,605

967

6,925

2,020

862

876

85

395

2,669

1,267

872

944

336

180

4,484

3,626

7,908

4,038

1,242

1,574

84

492

3,211

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000

Natural and Physical Sciences

Information Technology

Engineering and Related Technologies

Architecture and Building

Agriculture, Environmental and Related Studies

Health

Education

Management and Commerce

Society and Culture

Creative Arts

Food, Hospitality and Personal Services

Mixed Field Programmes

Field of study inadequately described

Field of study not stated

Field of Study of Residents with Qualifications - Manningham LGA 2016 (no.)


4.5

7.2

24.2

8.5

1.2

5.3

3.2

23.0

6.7

2.9

2.9

0.3

1.3

8.8

4.2

2.9

3.1

1.1

0.6

14.8

12.0

26.1

13.3

4.1

5.2

0.3

1.6

10.6

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0






Health

Education


Society and Culture

Creative Arts





Field of Study of Residents with Qualifications - Manningham LGA 2016 (% Share)


67



2,431

4,739

11,735

2,910

549

2,109

1,441

10,862

3,123

1,493

1,480

144

645

4,830

2,502

1,843

1,898

502

314

6,047

5,090

12,897

6,441

1,929

2,075

185

855

5,169

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000






Health

Education


Society and Culture

Creative Arts





Field of Study of Residents with Qualifications -Monash LGA 2016 (no.)


5.0

9.8

24.2

6.0

1.1

4.3

3.0

22.4

6.4

3.1

3.1

0.3

1.3

10.0

5.2

3.9

4.0

1.1

0.7

12.7

10.7

27.0

13.5

4.0

4.3

0.4

1.8

10.8

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0






Health

Education


Society and Culture

Creative Arts





Field of Study of Residents with Qualifications -Monash LGA 2016 (% Share)


68



Key Issues • These qualifications/fields of study patterns have some implications for future employment prospects for young people.

• Many males are concentrated in fields/sectors that are experiencing structural changes (eg. manufacturing and wholesale trade) and where total jobs are declining.

• Females are more concentrated in fields/sectors, which are experiencing major ongoing growth in activity and jobs (eg. health, education, professional services) and which are linked to a growing population.

• The health and education are major sectors in the Gateway LLEN region (particularly Monash and Whitehorse), with the location of major public and private hospitals, specialist medical services, universities and TAFE institutes.

1,823

3,993

9,103

2,948

591

1,922

1,562

9,952

3,306

1,649

1,213

100

589

3,681

1,824

1,347

1,321

514

288

7,011

5,320

11,463

6,268

2,139

1,757

123

761

4,046

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000






Health

Education


Society and Culture

Creative Arts





Field of Study of Residents with Qualifications -Whitehorse LGA 2016 (no.)


4.3

9.4

21.5

6.9

1.4

4.5

3.7

23.5

7.8

3.9

2.9

0.2

1.4

8.7

4.1

3.0

3.0

1.2

0.7

15.9

12.0

25.9

14.2

4.8

4.0

0.3

1.7

9.2

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0






Health

Education


Society and Culture

Creative Arts





Field of Study of Residents with Qualifications -Whitehorse LGA 2016 (% Share)


69

3 Employment Demand

3.1 Employment - Australia

3.1.1 Overview

This section analyses national and state employment trends. The Australian Government (Department

of Jobs and Small Business) publishes an annual analysis of employment trends and outlooks.41

There are 19 broad industries. Five industries each provide more than 1 million jobs and, together, they account for around half of total employment. The five largest employing industries are: Health Care and Social Assistance (1,663,900); Retail Trade (1,286,900); Construction (1,167,200); Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (1,033,000); and Education and Training (1,024,300). Manufacturing remains a major industry with around 885,000 employees, but is experiencing continuing declines in employment levels. This reflects structural adjustment in the Australian economy due to increasing international competitive pressures and closures/contraction of some operations. 42

• Over the five years to November 2017, about 1.2 million new jobs were created across 14 industries (although these were partly offset by job losses in others). The largest number of new jobs were created in Health Care and Social Assistance (up by 301,600); Construction (+188,800); Education and Training (+126,500).

• Five industries recorded employment falls in this period (although some subsectors within these industries had jobs growth). The largest losses were in: Manufacturing (down by 58,800); Mining (52,900); and Wholesale Trade (50,900).

Some of these industry sectors are inter-linked. Activity and employment in industries like Transport, Postal and Warehousing and Professional, Scientific and Technical Services are linked to other industries (eg. activity levels in agriculture, mining and manufacturing).

Workforce profiles differ significantly between industries. For example some sectors are large employers of women (eg. health, education and retail); other industries are major employers of males (eg. construction and manufacturing). Some sectors tend to have a younger workforce - accommodation and food services and retail. These two sectors are first workforce entry points for many young people through part time and casual employment. Construction has a significant number of young person’s 15-24, with many in apprenticeships or traineeships.

Young workers (15 to 24 years) are employed in all industries, although some offer more opportunities than others. Industries with large numbers of young workers (national data) include: Retail Trade (around 386,000); Accommodation and Food Services (385,000); and Construction (175,000).43

Employment is projected to grow in 16 of the 19 industries over the five years to May 2022. The high growth in Health Care and Social Assistance in recent years will continue, with this industry projected to add significantly more jobs than any other industry (up by 250,500). Other large contributions to employment growth are projected for Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (126,400), Construction (120,700), Education and Training (116,200) and Accommodation and Food Services (97,600). 44

Women make up a large share of employees in four of the five strongest growing industries, and also comprise low shares of employees in the three industries projected to lose jobs over the 2017-2022 periods.

41 Australian Jobs 2018, Department of Jobs and Small Business 42 Australian Jobs 2018, Department of Jobs and Small Business. P11 43 Australian Jobs 2018, Department of Jobs and Small Business. 44 Australian Jobs 2018, Department of Jobs and Small Business. P30

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3.1.2 Employment by Industry

Industry Sectors The table below summarises employment trends, outlooks and workforce characteristics by industry for Australia. While it is national data, the employment characteristics and educational profile align with those at a state level and a local level (LGAs).

There are 19 industry sectors for which aggregate data is available. Five of these industries each provide more than 1 million jobs and, together, they account for around half of total national employment. The five largest employing industries are: Health Care and Social Assistance (1,663,900); Retail Trade (1,286,900); Construction (1,167,200); Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (1,033,000); and Education and Training (1,024,300).45

Jobs Growth Over the five years to November 2017, about 1.2 million new jobs were created across 14 industries (although these were partly offset by job losses in others). The largest numbers of new jobs were created in: Health Care and Social Assistance (+ 301,600); Construction (+188,800); Education and Training (+126,500) and; Professional and Technical Services (+114,400).

Health jobs accounted for 25% of the growth over the period, construction 16%, education and training 11% and Professional Services 10%.

Several sectors experience employment falls (although some subsectors within these industries had jobs growth). The largest job losses were in: Manufacturing (-58,800); Mining (-52,900); and Wholesale Trade (-50,900).

Share of Total New Jobs, Five Years to November 2017 (%)

Source: Australian Jobs 2018, Department of Jobs and Small Business. P11

45 Australian Jobs 2018, Department of Jobs and Small Business. P11

71

Table 16. Employment by Industry – Australia – Current & 5 Year Projections

Employment Employment Profile Workforce Educational Profile Projected Employ.

Employ’t Nov 2017

5 year change to Nov 2017

Part-time

Female Aged 15

to 24 years

Aged 55

years or

older

Bachelor degree or

higher

Cert III or higher VET

qual

No post-

school qual

5 year change to May 2022

Industry ‘000 ‘000 % % % % % % % % %


896.1 108.4 13.8 60 55 43 10 14 25 55 11.2


401.2 7.6 1.9 44 51 11 21 21 30 41 8.4

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 324.5 21.7 7.2 27 30 10 37 12 28 52 -0.8

Arts and Recreation Services 248.3 36.6 17.3 50 49 25 16 29 27 38 9.9

Construction 1,167.2 188.8 19.3 15 12 15 16 10 54 32 10.9

Education and Training 1,024.3 126.5 14.1 40 71 9 23 62 20 14 12.0


136.7 -4.8 -3.4 8 24 6 19 27 42 26 -7.0


420.7 4.0 1 17 49 7 14 46 24 25 5.6


1,663.9 301.6 22.1 44 78 9 23 45 31 18 16.1


215 -12.8 -5.6 21 41 12 14 44 24 27 3.3

Manufacturing 885.5 -58.8 -6.2 15 27 11 20 18 38 39 -4.2

Mining 216.5 -52.9 -19.6 5 15 5 14 22 46 28 2.4

Other Services 524.5 78.5 17.6 32 44 16 19 15 53 26 2.5


1,033.0 114.4 12.5 23 43 8 17 59 20 17 12.5

Public Administration and Safety 740.5 44.9 6.5 20 49 6 20 39 33 23 9.3


218.7 20.9 10.6 24 51 11 22 26 33 31 8.5

Retail Trade 1,286.9 81.4 6.8 50 56 30 15 16 24 54 3.7


646.8 64 11 21 22 7 25 16 31 46 6.5

Wholesale Trade 376.7 -50.9 -11.9 17 33 9 20 24 30 40 0.5

All Industries1 12,380.1 970.7 8.5 32 47 14 19 30 31 33 7.8


3.1.3 Employment of Young People

Young workers (15 to 24 years) are employed across all industries, although some tend to employ more young people including: Retail Trade (around 386,000); Accommodation and Food Services (385,000); and Construction (175,000).46 This employment includes part-time jobs held by students and in the construction sector, apprentices and trainees.

The educational profile of the workforces varies across industries. However some of the key industries with the highest job growth rates require post-school qualifications. For example: Education and Training (86% hold post-school qualifications); Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (83%); and Health Care and Social Assistance (82%). Accommodation and Food Services and Retail Trade have jobs which do not require qualifications.

3.1.4 Industry Outlook

The Department of Jobs and Small Business produces annual employment projections by industry for the following five years. The industries that have experience growth over the last 5 years are those forecast to have the strongest growth, over the 5 year period 2018-2022.47

Employment is projected to rise in 16 of the 19 industries over the five years to May 2022. The high growth in Health Care and Social Assistance in recent years is projected to continue, with this industry projected to add significantly more jobs than any other industry (up by 250,500). Other large contributions to employment growth are projected for Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (126,400), Construction (120,700), Education and Training (116,200) and Accommodation and Food


72

Services (97,600). 48 The industries which are projected to grow most strongly (in percentage terms) are Health Care and Social Assistance (up by 16.1%), Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (12.5%) and Education and Training (12.0%).

The Health Care and Social Assistance sector is projected to be the largest generator of new jobs. This industry comprises the sub sectors of hospitals, medical and other health services, residential care and social assistance services. Growth in activity and jobs is being driven by a range of interrelated factors including: ageing of the population; increased incidence of chronic diseases; expansion of services in health care; population growth; and demand for childcare and community services.

Construction is also projected to add a significant number of jobs over the next five years. These jobs will be concentrated in areas with strong population and housing growth and will be associated with major infrastructure projects.

Women represent a high share of the workforce in those sectors experiencing higher rates of jobs growth (eg. health care and social assistance and education).

Table 17. Key Sectors – Profiles 2018 Sector Description Occupations Education & Training Outlook- Jobs

Industry

Manufacturing Continuing decline in employment. Some growth in sectors (eg. Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing (up by 31,000), Wood Product Manufacturing (10,200) and Food Product Manufacturing (9,600). Employment 2017: 885,500 Growth 5 years to Nov 2017: -58,800 (-6.2%)

Industry has a range of skilled and semi-skilled occupations. . 15-24 years:11%

Qualifications Bachelor Degree:18% Cert III or higher VET:38% Other Quals:5% No Quals: 39% Holding a certificate III or higher vocational qualification is common. Apprentice opportunities in skilled trades.

Growth 5 years to 2022: -4.2% Continuing falls projected.

Transport , Postal & Warehousing

Employment increased strongly over past five years. Employment 2017: 646,800 Growth 5 years to Nov 2017: 64,000 (11.0%)

Almost half the jobs in this industry are for machinery operators and drivers. The industry’s workforce is relatively old, with around one in four workers aged 55 years or older. 15-24 years: 7% Difficult for under 25s to be drivers due to high insurance costs.

Qualifications Bachelor Degree:16% Cert III or higher VET:31% Other Quals:7% No Quals:46% Employs a large number without qualifications.

Growth 5 years to 2022: -6.5% Driven by increased logistics functions, online retail and deliveries.

Construction Large employing industry (housing, civil, commercial, industrial, infrastructure) Employment 2017: 1.167 million Growth 5 years to Nov 2017: 188,800 (19.3%) .

Technicians and Trades Workers account for 52% of those employed. More than half the workers in industry hold a Certificate III or higher vocational qualification. Around 16% of workers are labourers. Around 81,600 apprentices and trainees employed in 2017. 15-24 years:15%

Qualifications Bachelor Degree:10% Cert III or higher VET:54% Other Quals:4% No Quals: 32%

Growth 5 years to 2022: 10.9% Driven by strong infrastructure investment, housing growth but will be moderate.

Services


Largest and fastest growing industry Employment 2017: 1.663 million Growth 5 years to Nov 2017: 301,600 (22.1%) Continuing strong growth

Major occupations: Professionals (42%) & Community and Personal Service Workers (31%). A high proportion of this industry’s workforce is aged 55 years or older, suggesting that retirements will provide significant opportunities over next decade. 15-24 years:9%

Qualifications Bachelor Degree:45% Cert III or higher VET:31% Other Quals:6% No Quals:18% Major increase in persons studying health (university &VET).

Growth 5 years to 2022: 16.1% Driven by increased demand for health services with ageing population, and implementation of the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS).


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Sector Description Occupations Education & Training Outlook- Jobs

Education & Training Large and fast growing industry. Employment 2017: 1.024 million Growth 5 years to Nov 2017: 126,500 (14.1%)

A significant share is female and part-time work is common. High % of workers is aged 55 years +, retirements will create opportunities over the next decade. 15-24 years:9%

Qualifications Bachelor Degree:62% Cert III or higher VET:20% Other Quals 4% No Quals:14% The workforce is highly educated and university education is required for teaching positions.

Growth 5 years to 2022: -12.0% Influenced by growth in the school aged population, continued strength in international education and growing demand for adult and community education.

Professional, Scientific & Technical Services

Large and diverse industry, and includes activities such as legal and accounting services, veterinary services, and computer system design. Employment 2017: 1.033 million Growth 5 years to Nov 2017: 114,400 (12.5%)

Highly skilled workforce with higher education. More than half the workers in this industry are professionals. 15-24 years:8%

Qualifications Bachelor Degree:59% Cert III or higher VET:20% Other Quals:4% No Quals: 17% Higher education required for many positions.

Growth 5 years to 2022: 12.5% Strong growth reflecting ongoing strength in the demand for services.

Retail Australia’s second largest employing industry. Employment 2017: 1.286 million Growth 5 years to Nov 2017: 81,400 (6.8%)

Offers opportunities for young people to enter the labour market. Part-time work is common 15-24 years:30%

Qualifications Bachelor Degree:16% Cert III or higher VET:24% Other Quals:6% No Quals: 54% Post-school qualifications are often not necessary.

Growth 5 years to 2022: 3.7% Population growth is driving jobs growth in Supermarket and Grocery Stores sector. Falls in department stores sector (consumption trends & online competition)

Accommodation & Food Services

Large and fast growing industry. Employment 2017: 896,100 Growth 5 years to Nov 2017: 108,400 (13.8%)

Range of occupations: chefs, cooks, waiters, bar staff etc. Part-time employment common. Entry point for many young people. 15-24 years:43%

Qualifications Post-school qualifications are often not required. Bachelor Degree:14% Cert III or higher VET:25% Other Quals:6% No Quals: 55%

Growth 5 years to 2022: 11.2% Driven by tourism and a growing café culture

Source: Australian Jobs 2018, Department of Jobs and Small Business, P12-21

The following chart shows the largest projected employment increases by industry sub-sectors. It shows strong growth across a diversity of service industries. Largest Projected Employment Gains by Subsector – Australia 2017-2022 ('000)

Source: Australian Jobs 2018, Department of Jobs and Small Business, P30

There are 3 industries where employment is projected to fall. These are: Manufacturing (down by 38,300 or 4.2%); Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services (9000 or 7.0%); and Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (2400 or 0.8%). While employment is forecast to fall in these industries, some subsectors are expected to add new jobs.

Manufacturing will continue to provide employment for a larger number of persons. Within the industry five subsectors are projected to grow over the five years to May 2022. The largest gains are projected

74

for: Food Product Manufacturing (up by 5300 or 2.7%); Furniture and Other Manufacturing (4400 or 6.0%); and Basic Chemical and Chemical Product Manufacturing (2600 or 4.9%).

Within Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services, the Waste Collection, Treatment and Disposal Services subsector is projected to partly offset the falls in the other subsectors (up by 2,700 or 8.2%).

Largest Projected Employment Falls by Subsector, Australia 2017-2022 (‘000)

Source: Australian Jobs 2018, Department of Jobs and Small Business, P30

3.1.5 Employment by Occupation

Occupation Trends

Occupations can be grouped into eight major occupation groups according to their skill level and skill type. The largest (and one of the most highly skilled) is Professionals, which accounts for almost one in four Australian workers (or more than 2.9 million persons). The next two largest occupation groups are Technicians and Trades Workers (almost 1.8 million workers) and Clerical and Administrative Workers (more than 1.6 million).49

Following on the industry trends, the highest growth rates in the 5 years to November 2017 were Professionals (+14.9% up by 375,000 ); Community and Personal Service Workers (+21.4% or 234,300) ; Managers (+8.3% or 118,200); and Sales workers (+8.3% or 88,400).

• Specific occupations which recorded the largest numbers of new jobs over the five years to November 2017 were: General Sales Assistants (up by 51,700); Aged and Disabled Carers (49,800); and Registered Nurses (47,300).

• Occupations which recorded employment falls over the past five years include: Accounting Clerks (down by 21,900); Secretaries (21,100); Commercial Cleaners (15,600).

• Young workers (aged 15 to 24 years) are predominantly employed in occupations which do not require post-school qualifications. Specific occupations with the largest numbers of young people are: General Sales Assistants (263,400); Waiters (88,300); and Checkout Operators and Office Cashiers (82,400).50


75

Share of Total New Jobs, Five Years to November 2017 (%)


Occupation Outlook

Over the 5 years to May 2022, these same occupations are expected again have high growth rates.51

Table 18. Employment by Occupation – Australia– Current & 5 Year Projections

Employment Employment Profile Workforce Educational Profile Projected Employ

Employ’t Nov 2017

5 year change to Nov 2017

Part-time

Female Aged

15 to 24 years

Aged 55 years or older

Bachelor degree or higher

Cert III or higher VET qual

No post-school qual

5 year change to May 2022

Occupation group ‘000 ‘000 % % % % % % % % %

Managers 1,542.90 118.2 8.3 14 37 4 24 37 30 28 7.8

Professionals 2,914.10 375.0 14.8 26 55 6 19 75 14 8 12.1

Technicians and Trades Workers 1,773.40 110.7 6.7 15 14 16 16 8 64 23 4.8

Community and Personal Service Workers

1,331.40 234.3 21.4 55 69 24 15 18 42 32 19.2

Clerical and Administrative Workers 1,666.10 -18.4 -1.1 37 75 10 22 23 30 40 1.7

Sales Workers 1,155.50 88.4 8.3 56 61 36 14 13 22 57 3.6

Machinery Operators and Drivers 799.5 43.1 5.7 16 9 9 25 6 30 56 3.6

Labourers 1,204.10 51.4 4.5 47 35 23 20 8 24 60 5.3

All Occupations 12,380.10 970.7 8.5 32 47 14 19 30 31 33 7.8



76

Table 19. Key Industries - Top 5 Occupations November 2017 (jobs no.) Sector Occupations (Top 5) This Industry

Jobs (no.) All Industries

Jobs (no.)


Registered Nurses 260,300 279,300

Aged and Disabled Carers 153,200 171,000

Child Carers 114,700 162,400

Nursing Support and Personal Care Workers 89,200 92,600

Receptionists 83,800 180,700

Accommodation & Food Services

Waiters 123,600 134,900

Kitchenhands 97,100 135,900

Bar Attendants and Baristas 93,400 111,500

General Sales Assistants 77,400 553,200

Chefs 76,400 94,600

Retail

General Sales Assistants 390,000 553,200

Retail Managers 154,500 237,700

Checkout Operators and Office Cashiers 113,900 141,600

Shelf Fillers 66,100 67,100

Pharmacy Sales Assistants 33,500 33,700

Construction

Carpenters and Joiners 106,000 131,900

Electricians 105,500 158,700

Plumbers 77,400 87,500

Construction Managers 74,800 102,300

Building and Plumbing Labourers 50,700 71,200

Professional, Scientific & Technical Services

Accountants 90,500 184,800

Software and Applications Programmers 65,000 109,100

Solicitors 57,600 73,100

Graphic and Web Designers, and Illustrators 32,100 61,100

Advertising and Marketing Professionals 30,400 87,400

Education & Training

Primary School Teachers 156,800 158,900

Secondary School Teachers 131,000 131,600

Education Aides 87,500 97,000

University Lecturers and Tutors 48,900 50,100

Private Tutors and Teachers 40,100 45,800

Manufacturing

Structural Steel and Welding Trades Workers 45,200 79,900

Production Managers 34,500 52,400

Metal Fitters and Machinists 28,300 108,600

Packers 28,200 62,500

Food and Drink Factory Workers 25,800 29,600

Transport , Postal & Warehousing

Truck Drivers 114,900 208,300

Automobile Drivers 51,800 57,000

Couriers and Postal Deliverers 37,500 43,600

Bus and Coach Drivers 37,500 42,900

Store persons 31,800 123,300

Source: Australian Jobs 2018, Department of Jobs and Small Business, P12-21

Key Issues • This national employment outlook has major implications for future jobs in the Gateway LLEN region.

• Nationally manufacturing employment is projected to fall by a further 4.2% (a loss of 37,000 jobs) over the 2018-2022 period. This has major implications for areas within Monash and Whitehorse LGAs, which have a large number of jobs in the sector. In recent years, the falls in the Gateway LLEN region have mirrored national and state trends.

• Offsetting this fall is the projected growth in jobs in health care and social assistance and other service sectors. Health and other services are significant industries in the LGAs in the Gateway LLEN region, particularly in Monash and Whitehorse.

Continuing high jobs growth is projected in those sectors that are more female intensive (e.g. health sector), with significant declines in sectors that tend to employ males (e.g. manufacturing, wholesale trade).

77

3.2 Employment - Victoria

3.2.1 Overview

Knowledge of trends in the broader labour market and of current and future employment needs of an industry can help education and training providers better align programs to future skills requirements.

A diverse group of industries are important in the Gateway LLEN Region and these include the following sectors: Health and Support Services; Manufacturing and Engineering; Building and Construction; Electro-technology and Communications; Business Services; Wholesale Trade and Transport and Warehousing; and Education and Training.

Health Care and Social Assistance is the largest employing industry in Victoria (with 341,462 workers). Several other industries in the state each employ more than 200,000 workers. These are: Retail Trade (279,679); Construction (227,399) Manufacturing (212,948); Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (217,013); and Education and Training (236,222). Together, these 6 industries account for around 55%of total employment in Victoria.

Between 2011 and 2016, employment increased in 17 of 19 industries. The largest numbers of new jobs were created in Health Care and Social Assistance (+54,223 jobs); Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (+22,976 jobs); Education and Training (+35,478 jobs); Accommodation and Food Service (30,734) and Construction (25,580) These 5 industries in combination accounted for more than 61% of the total jobs growth (278,444) in the 5 year period .

Manufacturing industry recorded the largest decline in employment over the five years, with a fall of 52,705 or -19.8%. The sector still remains Victoria’s third largest industry for employment, and some sub-sectors within manufacturing increased their employment in the last 5 years. The largest increases were in: Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing and Basic Chemical and Chemical Product Manufacturing. Even with the overall decline in jobs over 5 years, Victoria still has more workers employed in manufacturing than has any other State.

3.2.2 Victorian Job Trends

Between 2011 and 2016 jobs in Victoria increased by 278,444 or 11.4%. The largest increases were in Health Care and Social Assistance (54,223, 18.9%); Education and Training (35,478, 17.7 %); Accommodation and Food Services (30,734, 20.6 %); Construction (25,580, 12.7%); and Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (22, 976, 11.8%). There were falls in 2 sectors Manufacturing (-52,705, -19.8%) and Wholesale Trade (-24,185, -21.5%).52

The last 2 years have seen continued growth in employment, with an estimated 100,000 jobs added in the 12 months to June 2018.53

On an occupations basis, the growth is mainly in Community and Personal Service Workers, Professionals, Sales Workers and some Tradespersons.

Young workers (aged 15 to 24 years) are predominantly employed in occupations in Food Services and Retail. Specific occupations with the largest numbers of young people are General Sales Assistants (263,400); Waiters (88,300); Checkout Operators and Office Cashiers (82,400).54

52 ABS Census 2011 & 2016, Working Population Profile, Victoria 53 Australian Jobs 2018, Department of Jobs and Small Business . P5 54 Australian Jobs 2018, Department of Jobs and Small Business . P5

78

Table 20. Jobs in Victoria – 2011 & 2016

Jobs in Victoria 2011 (no.)

2016 (no.)

Change 2011-2016 (no.) % Change

Share % 2011

Share % 2016

Agriculture, forestry and fishing 55,034 60,331 5,297 9.6 2.2 2.2

Mining 7,758 7,815 57 0.7 0.3 0.3

Manufacturing 265,653 212,948 -52,705 -19.8 10.8 7.8

Electricity, gas, water and waste services 27,315 30,712 3,397 12.4 1.1 1.1

Construction 201,819 227,399 25,580 12.7 8.2 8.3

Wholesale trade 112,496 88,311 -24,185 -21.5 4.6 3.2

Retail trade 269,647 279,679 10,032 3.7 11.0 10.2

Accommodation and food services 149,327 180,061 30,734 20.6 6.1 6.6

Transport, postal and warehousing 114,973 129,639 14,666 12.8 4.7 4.7


49,656 52,106 2,450 4.9 2.0 1.9

Financial and insurance services 103,814 106,519 2,705 2.6 4.2 3.9

Rental, hiring and real estate services 34,701 43,030 8,329 24.0 1.4 1.6


194,037 217,013 22,976 11.8 7.9 7.9

Administrative and support services 81,494 93,360 11,866 14.6 3.3 3.4

Public administration and safety 133,714 144,062 10,348 7.7 5.5 5.3

Education and training 200,744 236,222 35,478 17.7 8.2 8.7

Health care and social assistance 287,239 341,462 54,223 18.9 11.7 12.5

Arts and recreation services 42,867 52,469 9,602 22.4 1.7 1.9

Other services 89,667 98,244 8,577 9.6 3.7 3.6

Inadequately described/Not stated 29,941 128,963 99,022 330.7 1.2 4.7

Total 2,451,896 2,730,340 278,444 11.4 100.0 100.0

Source: ABS Census 2011 & 2016, Working Population Profiles, Victoria

Source: ABS Census 2011 & 2016, Working Population Profiles

3.2.3 Jobs Outlook

The short–term outlook for the Victorian economy is positive. The Victorian Department of Treasury and Finance has forecast employment growth of 2.0% in 2018–19, with the unemployment rate expected to average 5.75% over the period. 55 In the medium term (five years to May 2022), employment in Victoria is projected to increase by 8.8% (above the projected national growth of 7.8%).56

55 Australian Jobs 2018, Department of Jobs and Small Business . P5 56 Australian Jobs 2018, Department of Jobs and Small Business . P5

5,297

57-52,705

3,397

25,580

-24,185

10,032

30,734

14,666

2,450

2,705

8,329

22,976

11,866

10,348

35,478

54,223

9,602

8,577

99,022

-80,000 -60,000 -40,000 -20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000


Mining

Manufacturing


Construction

Wholesale trade

Retail trade












Other services


Jobs in Victoria - Change 2011-2016 (no.)

Change 2011-2016

79

3.3 Greater Melbourne Area

3.3.1 Jobs in Greater Melbourne

People operate in broader labour markets that extend beyond the local government area in which they live. In the Gateway LLEN region the majority of residents hold jobs in areas outside their LGA. Accordingly it us useful to examine trends in jobs in the Greater Melbourne Area.

Map Greater Melbourne Area

Source: ABS Census 2016

Industry Sectors

In 2016, there were a total of 2.046 million jobs in Greater Melbourne. Between 2001 and 2016 the number of jobs increased by 289,766 or 16.5%. Greater Melbourne accounts for 75% of the total jobs in Victoria. Industry sector growth aligns with the overall trends for Victoria, with the strongest growth in Health Care and Social Assistance (+ 46,121; Education and Training (+32,595); Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (+22,921); Accommodation and Food Services (+31235); and Construction (+ 29,172). Job falls occurred in Manufacturing (-35,103 or -17.8%) and Wholesale Trade (-17,872 or – 19.4%)

Table 21. Jobs in Greater Melbourne – 2011 and 2016

Jobs in Greater Melbourne Jobs 2011 Jobs 2016 Change 2011-

2016 % Change 2011-2016 Share % 2011 Share % 2016

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 8,647 12,391 3,744 43.3 0.5 0.6

Mining 3,446 3,853 407 11.8 0.2 0.2

Manufacturing 197,705 162,602 -35,103 -17.8 11.3 7.9

Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services 17,588 21,148 3,560 20.2 1.0 1.0

Construction 108,507 137,679 29,172 26.9 6.2 6.7

Wholesale Trade 92,267 74,395 -17,872 -19.4 5.3 3.6

Retail Trade 192,211 212,006 19,795 10.3 10.9 10.4

Accommodation and Food Services 104,223 135,458 31,235 30.0 5.9 6.6

Transport, Postal and Warehousing 84,600 102,441 17,841 21.1 4.8 5.0

Information Media and Telecommunications 41,924 45,291 3,367 8.0 2.4 2.2

Financial and Insurance Services 90,500 95,422 4,922 5.4 5.2 4.7

Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services 27,972 36,097 8,125 29.0 1.6 1.8

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 166,697 189,618 22,921 13.8 9.5 9.3

Administrative and Support Services 56,467 67,204 10,737 19.0 3.2 3.3

Public Administration and Safety 95,481 106,291 10,810 11.3 5.4 5.2

Education and Training 148,345 180,940 32,595 22.0 8.4 8.8

Health Care and Social Assistance 201,500 247,621 46,121 22.9 11.5 12.1

Arts and Recreation Services 33,509 42,339 8,830 26.4 1.9 2.1

Other Services 64,589 73,291 8,702 13.5 3.7 3.6

Inadequately described/Not stated 20,225 100,092 79,867 394.9 1.2 4.9

Total 1,756,403 2,046,169 289,766 16.5 100.0 100.0

Source: ABS Census 2011 & 2016, Working Population Profile, Greater Melbourne

80


8,647

3,446

197,705

17,588

108,507

92,267

192,211

104,223

84,600

41,924

90,500

27,972

166,697

56,467

95,481

148,345

201,500

33,509

64,589

12,391

3,853

162,602

21,148

137,679

74,395

212,006

135,458

102,441

45,291

95,422

36,097

189,618

67,204

106,291

180,940

247,621

42,339

73,291

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000


Mining

Manufacturing


Construction

Wholesale Trade

Retail Trade












Other Services

Jobs in Greater Melbourne Region 2011 & 2016 (no.)

Jobs 2011

Jobs 2016

81


Source: ABS Census 2011 & 2016, Working Population Profiles, Greater Melbourne

3,744

407

-35,103

3,560

29,172

-17,872

19,795

31,235

17,841

3,367

4,922

8,125

22,921

10,737

10,810

32,595

46,121

8,830

8,702

-40,000 -30,000 -20,000 -10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000


Mining

Manufacturing


Construction

Wholesale Trade

Retail Trade












Other Services

Greater Melbourne Region -Change in Jobs 2011-2016 (no.)

43.3

11.8

-17.8

20.2

26.9

-19.4

10.3

30.0

21.1

8.0

5.4

29.0

13.8

19.0

11.3

22.0

22.9

26.4

13.5

-30.0 -20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0


Mining

Manufacturing


Construction

Wholesale Trade

Retail Trade












Other Services

Greater Melbourne -Change in Jobs 2011-2016 (%)

82

3.3.2 Occupations

The occupations with stronger growth align with the industry growth, with growth in Community Service and Personal Service Workers – 52,983 or 33.8% growth (Health and Community Services; Accommodation and Food Services); Professionals – 75,127 or 16.8%) (Health and Community Services; Professional, Technical and Scientific Services); Technical and Trades Workers – 27,594 or 13.3% (mainly Constructions Sector).




232,659

446,788

207,555

156,973

285,017

175,157

100,505

125,702

277,160

521,915

235,149

209,956

293,397

202,783

114,969

155,687

0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000

Managers

Professionals

Tech & Trade Workers

Community Service & Personal Service


Sales Workers

Machinery Ops & Drivers

Labourers

Jobs in Greater Melbourne Region 2011-2016 - Occupations (no.)

Jobs 2011

Jobs 2016

44,501

75,127

27,594

52,983

8,380

27,626

14,464

29,985

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000

Managers

Professionals




Sales Workers


Labourers

Change in Jobs Greater Melbourne Region 2011-2016 (no.)

Change 2011-2016

19.1

16.8

13.3

33.8

2.9

15.8

14.4

23.9

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0

Managers

Professionals




Sales Workers


Labourers

Change in Jobs Greater Melbourne Region 2011-2016 - Occupations (% change)

% Change 2011-2016

83

3.4 Employment – Gateway LLEN Region

The following section compares employment for Victoria and the 3 LGAs that make up the Gateway LLEN Region.

3.4.1 Comparison Gateway LLEN region and Greater Melbourne

The following chart compares the % change in jobs between 2011 and 2016 for Greater Melbourne and the Gateway LLEN Region LGAs (Manningham, Monash, and Whitehorse). It shows that on an industry sector basis, jobs growth in the LGAs generally aligned with the pattern for Greater Melbourne.

It also aligns with the national industry trends identified by the Department of Jobs and Small Business.57

Source: ABS Census 2011 & 2016, Working Population Profiles

57 Australian Jobs 2018, Department of Jobs and Small Business

43.3

11.8

-17.8

20.2

26.9

-19.4

10.3

30.0

21.1

8.0

5.4

29.0

13.8

19.0

11.3

22.0

22.9

26.4

13.5

16.5

42.5

150.0

-18.6

30.0

37.4

-23.1

10.2

20.7

16.4

22.5

-4.4

40.2

14.1

61.8

17.7

20.9

22.0

11.2

10.7

19.7

110.3

-1.6

-14.1

-4.5

37.7

-23.1

12.1

39.6

30.9

4.0

5.9

36.4

23.4

44.5

9.5

21.8

26.2

28.7

14.7

17.9

69.0

-25.0

-35.6

-31.1

33.2

-28.3

3.5

38.3

5.8

9.1

5.7

53.1

14.4

9.4

-0.2

17.6

24.3

22.5

6.9

12.6

-50.0 - 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0


Mining

Manufacturing


Construction

Wholesale Trade

Retail Trade












Other Services

Total

Change in Jobs 2011-2016 - Greater Melbourne & Gateway LLEN Region LGAs Compared (% change)

Greater Melbourne

Manningham

Monash

Whitehorse

84

Table 22. Employment by Industry, Greater Melbourne and Gateway LLEN Region Greater Melbourne Gateway LLEN Region

Industries Jobs 2016 Share %

2016 % Change 2011-2016 Jobs 2016

Share % 2016

% Change 2011-2016

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 12,391 0.6 43.3 349 0.2 74.5

Mining 3,853 0.2 11.8 111 0.1 11.0

Manufacturing 162,602 7.9 -17.8 14,258 7.0 -19.0

Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services 21,148 1.0 20.2 1,532 0.8 -19.7

Construction 137,679 6.7 26.9 13,895 6.8 36.4

Wholesale Trade 74,395 3.6 -19.4 10,190 5.0 -24.7

Retail Trade 212,006 10.4 10.3 23,574 11.6 8.9

Accommodation and Food Services 135,458 6.6 30.0 10,772 5.3 34.4

Transport, Postal and Warehousing 102,441 5.0 21.1 6,362 3.1 22.7

Information Media and Telecommunications 45,291 2.2 8.0 4,191 2.1 7.8

Financial and Insurance Services 95,422 4.7 5.4 4,889 2.4 4.3

Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services 36,097 1.8 29.0 3,622 1.8 42.6

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 189,618 9.3 13.8 16,666 8.2 18.9

Administrative and Support Services 67,204 3.3 19.0 7,486 3.7 30.2

Public Administration and Safety 106,291 5.2 11.3 8,110 4.0 5.0

Education and Training 180,940 8.8 22.0 25,506 12.5 20.2

Health Care and Social Assistance 247,621 12.1 22.9 32,023 15.7 24.9

Arts and Recreation Services 42,339 2.1 26.4 2,549 1.3 22.4

Other Services 73,291 3.6 13.5 8,143 4.0 10.4

Inadequately described/Not stated 100,092 4.9 394.9 9,650 4.7 375.1

Total 2,046,169 100.0 16.5 203,902 100.0 16.3

Source: ABS Census 2011 & 2016, Working Population Profile, Greater Melbourne & Gateway LLEN Region LGAs

3.4.2 Industry Trends – Key Sectors

There are several industries that have experienced growth in the period to up to the end of 2017 for Victoria, which are major sectors for the Gateway LLEN region (health services, construction, retail, professional services). At the same time manufacturing (which is undergoing significant structural change), is a major activity in Monash and Whitehorse LGAs.

Table 23. Trends in Key Sectors Major Sector Coverage Trends Jobs (Victoria)

2016 Outlook to 2022 (National)

Gateway LLEN Region 2016

Industry

Manufacturing Aerospace, Engineering (Fabrication and Mechanical trades), Mining, Automotive components, Chemical, Hydrocarbon and Oils, Non-metallic Mineral Products, Plastics, Rubber and Cables, Food processing.

Sector has experienced a continued fall in jobs. Accounts for 212,948 jobs (8%) Several sectors have experienced growth - Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing and Basic Chemical and Chemical Product Manufacturing).

Projected decline of -4.2% to 2022

The Gateway LLEN region has a concentration of large manufacturers and smaller businesses- with the major concentration being in Monash LGA. Manufacturing employment in the region totalled 14,288 jobs/7% of jobs in the region). The region has a specialisation in advance engineering, machinery and equipment, chemicals, food processing, paper products, printing. Jobs declined by -3348 or 20%.between 2011 and 2016. The sector in Monash and Whitehorse is being impacted by the cessation of local motor vehicle production (component suppliers and engineering). <Jobs: Manningham 713, Monash 11,082, Whitehorse 2463 >

Wholesale Trade/ Transport & Warehousing

Distribution, warehousing, and product support.

Sectors have undergone some change jobs in 5 years to end 2016. Wholesale Trade in 2016 accounts for 88,311 jobs (3%). Fall of -24,185 or 21% between 2011 & 2016. Transport & Warehousing-129,639 jobs (5% jobs) in 2016. Jobs growth + 14,666 or 13% between 2011 & 2016 .

Projected growth of 6.5% to 2022 (Mainly Transport & Warehousing)

The Gateway LLEN region (particularly Monash/Whitehorse) has developed as a major centre for wholesaling and warehousing (with access to East Link and Monash Freeway). The region has headquarters and distribution centres for some large international businesses, covering: motor vehicles, industrial machinery and equipment, electronics; and material wholesaling. The Wholesale sector employed 10,190 (5% of jobs) in 2016 down 25% on 2011 jobs. Transport and warehousing accounted for 6362 jobs (3%, up 23% on 2011 jobs. <Wholesale Jobs: Manningham 661, Monash 6546, Whitehorse 2983> <Transport & Warehousing Jobs: Manningham 704, Monash 6546, Whitehorse 2983>

85

Major Sector Coverage Trends Jobs (Victoria) 2016

Outlook to 2022 (National)

Gateway LLEN Region 2016

Building and Construction

Civil Operations, General Construction, Plumbing Services, Shared – Building and Construction

Major sector that has experienced growth in jobs in last 5 years. Driven by housing sector and office and commercial development. 227,339 workers or 8% of jobs.

Projected growth of 10.9% to 2022

Large sector in Gateway LLEN region (13,895 jobs -7% of jobs). Sector has been driven by new housing and commercial development in outer areas of Melbourne and servicing a large regional population. <Jobs: Manningham 2412, Monash 7580, Whitehorse 3903 >

Services


Children’s Services, Community Health, Health Sciences and Acute Care, Medical Practitioners, OH&S Professionals, Psychologists, Residential Aged Care and Home and Community Care, Nursing.

Largest employing industry in Victoria (341,462 workers and 12% of jobs. Continues to experience growth in activity and jobs

National growth of 16.1% projected to 2022

Major sector with total of 32,023 jobs (16% of jobs in region) in the Gateway LLEN Region with hospitals (public & private, health services and clinics and aged care providers supporting a large regional population. <Jobs: Manningham 4402, Monash 15,033, Whitehorse 12,588 >

Education and Training.

Early learning, primary and secondary education, vocational education and training, higher education.

Sector has experience major growth across all segments. Jobs have grown by 35,748 over 5 years or 18%. Education and training employs a total of 236,222 (9%).


The education and training sector accounts for 25,506 jobs (13%). This comprises pre-schools, schools, universities, TAFE and adult education and training providers. Post school education is a major employer covering Monash University, Deakin University, Box Hill TAFE, and Holmesglen TAFE. Increase of 4281 2011-2016 or 20% <Jobs: Manningham 3271, Monash 13,637, Whitehorse 8595>


Accounting, Business Management, Legal Services, engineering services, consulting services, other technical services.

Sector has experience major growth over 5 years (+ 22,976 jobs or 12%) and accounts for 217,013 jobs (8% of jobs).


The Gateway LLEN region has a substantial sector servicing industry and the regional population. 16,666 jobs – 8% of jobs. Monash and Whitehorse have major concentrations, which include business services and technology services (some of this is linked to research activity at Monash University and the industry research centres located in the LGA). <Jobs: Manningham 2252, Monash 8717, Whitehorse 5697 >

Retail Supermarkets, general retail, department stores

Sector employs 279,679 persons (11% of jobs). Has experienced 3.7% growth in 5 years to end 2016.


Major sector-23,574 (12% of jobs). Large retail activity in major shopping centres and small strip retailing. Major source of part-time employment for women and younger workers. <Jobs: Manningham 5428, Monash 10,821, Whitehorse 7325 >

Source: Trend data from ABS Census 2011 & 2016, Working Population Profiles. Outlook (national from Australian Jobs 2018, Department of Jobs and Small Business (Australian Government) P12

Key Issues • This pattern of future employment demand has implications for skills development and education and training.

• Trades: several sectors are large employers of tradespersons – the construction industry and manufacturing industry. They also employ a significant number of machine operators and labourers. These two sectors are major employers of male workers.

• Professionals and para-professionals: the health and community services sectors employ a large percentage of professionals including: doctors, nurses, allied health professionals and other professionals. The sector has a predominantly female workforce (medical, nursing and care positions).

• Most of the new emerging jobs are in occupations for which post-school qualifications are required (and often work experience), while there has been a decline in lower skill level jobs.

• The largest growth at a national level was in professionals (particularly in the Health Care and Social Assistance, Education and Training and Professional and Technical Services).

• Projected growth occupations include: General Sales Assistants); Nurses, Contract, Programme and Project Administrators and Carers, Aged care and Disability services. (with the rollout of the NDIS scheme)

86

3.4.3 Key Sectors – Gateway LLEN region

Overview

This section analyses key sectors located in the Gateway LLEN region.

• Monash LGA is more industrial , with a large share of jobs in Manufacturing (78%); Wholesale Trade (64%); and Transport, Postal & Warehousing.

• Health is concentrated in Monash (47%) and Whitehorse 39%, which is due to the major hospital and medical hubs located in those LGAs (eg. public hospitals, private hospitals and specialist medical services).

• Education and training is located in Monash (53%) and Whitehorse (34%), and this is due to Universities (Monash and Deakin) and TAFE (Box Hill and Holmesglen Institutes).

• Professional services are clustered in the main industry and business hubs (Monash and Whitehorse).

• Other services tend to align with relative population size and this includes retail and accommodation and food services.

• Construction jobs located in the LGAs in 2016 reflect a combination of housing development and infrastructure projects (transport, education, health).

Table 24. Share of Key Sectors Jobs by Gateway LLEN Region LGAs 2016 (% share) Sector Manningham

% Monash

% Whitehorse

%

Industrial

Manufacturing 5.0 77.7 17.3

Construction 17.4 54.6 28.1

Wholesale Trade 6.5 64.2 29.3

Transport, Postal & Warehousing 11.1 66.5 22.5

Services

Health Care & Social Assistance 13.7 46.9 39.3

Education & Training 12.8 53.5 33.7

Professional & Technical Services 13.5 52.3 34.2

Retail 23.0 45.9 31.1

Accommodation & Food Services 22.7 42.6 34.7

Share of All Jobs 14.2 51.9 33.9

Source: ABS Census 2016, Working Population Profile.

Industry

Manufacturing – A Diverse Sector

Manufacturing industry’s role in job creation has been changing over the past 25 years in developed countries like Australia. Lower value activities have shifted offshore and the remaining manufacturing has been higher value added and less labour intensive. In this environment, the industries share of output and employment has continued to decline and this is the case over the 5 years to 2016.

Manufacturing in Australia comprises a range of industries, which vary substantially in terms of: the nature of their products; type of operations; and the competitive situation. Industries vary according to: R&D levels; energy usage; capital structure; labour intensity; and export levels. Industry competitiveness in a high wage economy like Australia is largely driven by innovation and the capacity to bring new technologies and products to international markets (eg. in medical and scientific equipment, machine tools, other engineering products, food products).

Within the Gateway LLEN Region (in Monash LGA and Whitehorse LGA), there is a concentration of engineering businesses producing products for national and international markets. These industries have a requirement for skilled workers and some are involved in R&D activity.58

At the same time other manufacturing in the region has undergone structural change, with a decline in jobs of 20% or 4490 between 2011 and 2016 (26% decline in Whitehorse and 19% decline in Monash).

These factors and industry characteristics are increasing the knowledge component of products and processes and creating a priority in manufacturing for industry-linked education and ongoing skills development. Continuing efforts to improve education, particularly in teaching maths and analytical skills, and closer collaboration between industry and educational institutions will be important to ensure that skills learned fit the current and future needs of employers.

58 McKinsey Global Institute, McKinsey Operations Practice, Manufacturing the future: The next era of global growth and innovation, November 2012

87

Table 25. Manufacturing Jobs – Gateway LLEN Region LGAs – 2016 (no.) Manufacturing Manningham Monash Whitehorse

Males

Females

Persons

Share % Males

Females

Persons

Share % Males

Females

Persons

Share %

Manufacturing, nfd 29 9 36 5.0 469 167 630 5.7 183 69 251 10

Food Product Manufacturing 84 158 244 34.2 922 787 1708 15.4 141 173 317 13

Beverage and Tobacco Product Manufacturing 16 11 29 4.1 23 14 38 0.3 7 3 12 0

Textile, Leather, Clothing and Footwear Manufacturing 12 34 49 6.9 81 145 229 2.1 36 82 118 5

Wood Product Manufacturing 47 30 77 10.8 83 11 98 0.9 67 32 98 4

Pulp, Paper and Converted Paper Product 38 16 53 7.4 229 165 395 3.6 238 70 308 13

Printing(incl Recorded Media) 9 15 24 3.4 1183 472 1652 14.9 154 65 220 9

Petroleum & Coal Product Manufacturing 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 -

Basic Chemical & Chemical Product Manufacturing 6 4 4 0.6 625 594 1218 11.0 16 15 34 1

Polymer Product and Rubber Product Manufacturing 6 4 9 1.3 726 384 1104 10.0 123 35 157 6

Non-metallic Mineral Product Manufacturing 44 7 52 7.3 172 31 209 1.9 30 7 37 2

Primary Metal and Metal Product Manufacturing 7 3 7 1.0 132 30 163 1.5 55 9 68 3

Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing 19 8 27 3.8 479 176 658 5.9 121 42 159 6

Transport Equipment Manufacturing 7 4 8 1.1 878 213 1084 9.8 32 4 42 2

Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing 26 17 44 6.2 1154 349 1503 13.6 305 111 413 17

Furniture and Other Manufacturing 38 15 55 7.7 303 81 387 3.5 177 50 227 9

Total 388 326 713 100.0 7453 3626 11082 100.0 1685 770 2463 100

Share Gateway LLEN Region (%) 5.0 77.7 17.3

Source: ABS Census 2016 Working Population Profile

With higher valued added manufacturing, the jobs in an enterprise have broadened to include service type activities including: R&D; marketing and sales; distribution and customer support.

The Gateway LLEN region has a major concentration of manufacturing jobs, with 14,258 jobs in 2016. The main clusters were in Monash (77%, 11,082) and in Whitehorse LGAs (17%, 2463). The sector tends to employ males, who hold around 67% of the jobs.

Key Issues: Manufacturing The key future issues for manufacturing in the region are:

• The ongoing impacts of the cessation of automotive manufacturing on linked industries, particularly in Monash LGA.

• The need to continue to develop export markets for higher value manufactured products, a number of businesses in the region are involved in export markets.

• The increasing knowledge base of manufacturing industry and the requirement for a much higher level skills in the workforce.

• Current skill shortages and skill gaps in some industry segments in manufacturing.

• The need for improved linkages between manufacturers and education, including links with schools.

88

Construction

In 2016 there were a total of 13,895 construction jobs in the Gateway LLEN region, with Monash accounting for 7580 jobs (55%); Whitehorse 3903 (28%); and Manningham 2412 (17%). Jobs in the region grew between 2001 and 2016, reflecting a combination of housing development, civil construction projects, education and health facilities and major commercial developments in major centres.

Table 26. Construction Jobs – Gateway LLEN Region LGAs – 2016 (no.) Construction Manningham Monash Whitehorse

Males

Females

Persons

Share % Males

Females

Persons

Share % Males

Females

Persons

Share %

Construction, nfd 78 8 83 3.4 245 44 287 3.8 149 23 169 4.3

Building Construction 797 156 958 39.7 2,149 841 2,991 39.5 1,030 188 1,219 31.2

Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction 86 23 113 4.7 333 79 412 5.4 215 34 248 6.4

Construction Services 1,078 180 1,257 52.1 3,380 515 3,890 51.3 1,975 290 2,270 58.2

Total 2,041 374 2,412 100.0 6,105 1,477 7,580 100.0 3,368 538 3,903 100.0

Share Gateway Region (%) 17.4 54.6 28.1


Key Issues: Construction The key future issues for construction jobs in the region are:

• The level of residential construction in the region, including higher density development.

• Ongoing public infrastructure projects – covering transport infrastructure, hospitals and education facilities.

• Skill shortages continuing I in some skilled trades occupations

• A need to encourage employers in the area to continue to train apprentices to maintain a future skilled workforce, Wholesale Trade

The Gateway LLEN region is a centre for wholesale trade operations with a number of domestic and international manufacturers and distributors having facilities the area (total 10,190 jobs). The major concentration is in Monash LGA (6546 jobs or 64%) and Whitehorse LGA (2983 jobs or 29%).

There was a fall in jobs in the sector between 2011 and 2016 (3329 or 25%), with the largest decline being in Monash (-1961 or 23%) and Whitehorse (-1179 or 29%). The change reflects a combination of some industry restructuring and relocations out of the area.

The number of jobs in the wholesale sector has also declined at a national and state level, with a similar trend in the Gateway LLEN region.

Around half of the workforce does not have post-school qualifications, and relatively few workers are employed in high skill occupations. Over half of the employees are clerical and administrative workers, sales workers or machinery operators and drivers (eg. fork lift, vans). The top 5 positions include store persons, sales representatives, managers and clerks.

The major segments are machinery and equipment wholesaling, other goods wholesaling and basic material wholesaling.

Table 27. Wholesale Trade Jobs – Gateway LLEN Region LGAs – 2016 (no.) Wholesale Trade Manningham Monash Whitehorse

Males

Females

Persons

Share % Males

Females

Persons

Share % Males

Females

Persons

Share %

Wholesale Trade, nfd 18 19 39 5.9 186 152 341 5.2 106 98 202 6.8

Basic Material Wholesaling 91 46 136 20.6 394 199 589 9.0 314 208 516 17.3

Machinery and Equipment Wholesaling 89 54 146 22.1 1,860 740 2,602 39.7 849 375 1,224 41.0

Motor Vehicle and Motor Vehicle Parts Wholesaling 39 6 46 7.0 460 202 662 10.1 148 71 216 7.2

Grocery, Liquor and Tobacco Product Wholesaling 64 41 101 15.3 532 406 936 14.3 97 107 208 7.0

Other Goods Wholesaling 81 103 187 28.3 668 712 1,379 21.1 277 302 577 19.3

Commission-based Wholesaling 3 3 6 0.9 19 17 35 0.5 25 11 38 1.3

Total 385 280 661 100.0 4,120 2,431 6,546 100.0 1,815 1,169 2,983 100.0

Share Gateway LLEN region (%) 6.5 64.2 29.3


89

Key Issues: Wholesale Trade The key future issues in the region are:

• The sector provides employment for a significant number of persons without post school qualifications.

• Future reductions in jobs in the sector in the region area expected. This is due to rationalisation of supply chains and some movement of businesses to industrial/business parks in western and northern areas of Melbourne.

• The sector will continue to be important for the region.

• With the restructuring of the sector higher skills will be important for persons remaining in the industry.

Transport, Postal & Warehousing This industry sector comprises a combination of passenger transport and logistics (freight transport and warehousing). The logistics segment is linked to the manufacturing and wholesale trade sectors and to the distribution of products to retailers and households (on-line shopping). Transport and logistics sectors have grown strongly. A major industry trend has been the outsourcing of combined warehousing and distribution activities to major integrated transport companies and specialist providers (eg. refrigeration carriers/cool stores; supermarket logistics centres).

Major logistics occupations are Truck Drivers and Couriers and Postal Deliverers, and Store persons. Around one third of the workforce has VET qualifications and 15% have degree qualifications (mainly managers and professionals in administration and market development roles).

A key issue is the older age structure of the industry workforce, which has implications for replacement demand in the medium term. This is particularly the case with truck drivers, where there is a national shortage of long haul drivers. The major logistics operators have developed programs to attract younger people into the industry and to provide structure training and career pathways in transport and logistics.

The Gateway LLEN region area had 6362 jobs in the sector in 2016. The major concentrations were in Monash LGA (4229 jobs or 66%) and Whitehorse LGA (1429 jobs or 22%). There was an increase in jobs in the sector in the region between 2011 and 2016 (+1126 or 23 %).

Major industry segments were: road transport (2525 jobs); postal and pickup services (1648); and warehousing and transport support services (856). Future growth in jobs is projected the sector.

Table 28. Transport, Postal & Warehousing Jobs – Gateway LLEN Region LGAs – 2016 (no.) Transport, Postal & Warehousing Manningham

Monash Whitehorse

Males

Females

Persons

Share % Males

Females

Persons

Share % Males

Females

Persons

Share %

Transport, Postal and Warehousing, nfd 28 12 41 5.8 173 80 257 6.1 42 11 53 3.7

Road Transport 405 47 449 63.8 1,228 295 1,527 36.1 405 152 549 38.4

Rail Transport 3 0 3 0.4 69 31 98 2.3 42 13 57 4.0

Water Transport 0 0 0 0.0 15 12 22 0.5 5 7 11 0.8

Air and Space Transport 4 3 7 1.0 31 15 43 1.0 3 6 11 0.8

Other Transport 5 0 5 0.7 34 7 38 0.9 4 0 4 0.3

Postal and Courier Pick-up and Delivery Services 103 36 135 19.2 918 268 1,187 28.1 233 102 326 22.8

Transport Support Services 29 11 35 5.0 253 125 378 8.9 185 80 265 18.5

Warehousing and Storage Services 20 7 27 3.8 537 139 676 16.0 105 42 153 10.7

Total 594 110 704 100.0 3,255 977 4,229 100.0 1,018 415 1,429 100.0



Key Issues: Transport & Logistics • The transport and logistics sectors will remain important for the Gateway LLEN Region, particularly in the industrial areas

in the Monash and Whitehorse LGAs. Both LGAs have access to East Link and the Monash Freeway, which provide efficient links to regional, state and national markets.

• The logistics industry is growing and has a requirement in the medium term to replace an older workforce (especially drivers). However there are limitations in under 25s taking up driving positions due to high insurance costs.

• There are opportunities in the region to build stronger industry/education links with transport and logistic businesses, with a focus on opportunities and pathways for young people into the sector.

90

Services Health Care and Social Assistance

The Health Care and Social Assistance workforce is primarily female (76% in the Gateway LLEN region), has a larger proportion of people employed part time and has a higher percentage of older workers

The Health Care and Social Assistance industry covers a range of major disciplines.

At a national and state level the sector has been the fastest growing employer.

• Employment Growth in the sector is being driven by several factors: population growth in metropolitan areas; ageing of the population; increases in the incidence of chronic illnesses; expansion and consolidation of hospitals and health services; rising incomes; increased

workforce participation by women, resulting in increasing demand for childcare; and subsidies for childcare.

• Workers in the Health Care and Social Assistance industry are generally highly skilled. Most hold post-school qualifications (more than two in five employees have a bachelor degree or higher), reflecting the requirements for entry to most of the major occupations in this sector. A high proportion of workers are professionals (almost twice the national average).

Strong employment growth in the industry is also projected in allied health occupations that require qualifications delivered by the VET sector. A total of 32,023 persons were employed in the sector in the Gateway LLEN Region in 2016. Monash accounted for 47% of the jobs (15,033) and Whitehorse for 39% (12,588). The scale of this sector in the region largely reflects the major health and medical hubs located in Monash LGA (Monash Medical Centre and private hospitals) and Whitehorse LGA (Box Hill Hospital and Epworth Private). Jobs in the sector are expected to continue to grow strongly in the medium term, as the population ages and governments commit more funding to health services. At a nation level growth of 16.2% is projected in the 5 years 2018-2022.59

Table 29. Health Care and Social Assistance Jobs – Gateway LLEN Region LGAs – 2016 (no.) Health Care and Social Assistance Manningham

Monash Whitehorse

Males Females Persons Share

% Males Females Persons Share


%

Health Care and Social Assistance, nfd 16 40 56 1.3 57 204 258 1.7 39 139 177 1.4

Hospitals 49 231 278 6.3 1,357 4,733 6,094 40.5 1,014 3,578 4,594 36.5

Medical and Other Health Care Services 622 1,359 1,977 44.9 1,402 3,130 4,535 30.2 908 2,476 3,382 26.9

Residential Care Services 282 1,018 1,304 29.6 371 1,562 1,932 12.9 421 1,495 1,922 15.3

Social Assistance Services 87 698 788 17.9 330 1,880 2,211 14.7 542 1,970 2,512 20.0

Total 1,057 3,346 4,402 100.0 3,521 11,513 15,033 100.0 2,924 9,661 12,588 100.0



Key Issues: Healthcare & Social Assistance • The health sector continues to grow strongly to meet community demand for services and this growth is occurring in the

Gateway LLEN Region.

• At a national and state level, significant employment growth is expected over the next 5 years in a number of occupations: Allied Health Professionals Aged or Disability Carers, Child Carers, Nursing Support and Personal Care Workers, Allied Health Assistants and Welfare Support Workers. Nursing also provides a career path for young people.

• There is also strong demand for employees in the aged care sector as more facilities open to cater for the ageing population.

• Ongoing jobs growth in health and support services is expected in the Gateway LLEN Region.

• The sector offers a range of career opportunities for young persons, associated with demand growth and a need to replace an ageing workforce (particular in the health sector).

• Many occupations in the sector require Certificate III and Certificate IV qualifications for support roles and para-professional jobs. TAFE and some private providers are delivering most of the courses that service the sector, and the three LGAs have good access to programs at Box Hill Institute and Holmesglen TAFE.

• Nursing and allied health qualifications are offered at Monash and Deakin Universities.

59 Australian Jobs 2018 , Department of Jobs and Small Business P11.

91


Education and Training is a major sector in the Gateway LLEN region. In 2016 total jobs were 25,506 (Monash 13,637 or 54%); Whitehorse (8595 or 34%). Tertiary education (universities and TAFE are major sectors in Monash and Whitehorse.

Between 2011 and 2016 the number of jobs increased by 4921 or 20% (Monash 2427 or 22%; Whitehorse 2464 or 24%; and Manningham 566 or 21%).

This is consistent with national and state growth rates and represents a combination of more young people undertaking higher education and VET programs and an increase in the number of international students.

National growth in jobs of 12% is projected for the 5 years to 2022.60

Table 30. Education and Training Jobs – Gateway LLEN Region LGAs – 2016 (no.) Education & Training Manningham Monash Whitehorse




%

Education and Training, nfd 14 49 61 1.9 73 101 173 1.3 51 145 193 2.2

Preschool and School Education 639 2000 2640 80.6 1,236 3,851 5,081 37.3 860 3,049 3,906 45.4

Tertiary Education 28 38 59 1.8 3,320 4,128 7,450 54.6 1,298 2,136 3,435 40.0

Adult, Community and Other Education 176 328 505 15.4 311 620 933 6.8 336 722 1,054 12.3

Total 864 2415 3274 100.0 4,937 8,698 13,637 100.0 2,545 6,057 8,595 100.0

Share Gateway LLEN region (%) 12.8 53.5 33.7


Key Issues : Education & Training • Education jobs will continue to increase strongly over the next 5 years.

• This will be driven by population growth and an increase in student numbers (domestic and international), expansion of programs (higher education and VET) and increased funding by governments.

• A major issue is long term replacement of an ageing workforce (in university and schools education).

• Most jobs in the education sector require degree and post graduate qualifications. Professional & Technical Services Professional and Technical Services is a major sector in the Gateway LLEN region. In 2016 total jobs were 16,666 jobs in the region (Monash 8717 or 52%); Whitehorse (5697 or 34%); and Manningham (2252 or 13%).

Between 2011 and 2016 the number of jobs increased by 2651 or 19% (Monash 1655 or 23%; Whitehorse 719 or 14%; and Manningham 278 or 14%).

The growth in the sector represents servicing businesses and the residential community in the region. There has also been an increase in professional jobs located in population centres in each of the LGAs. Most jobs in the sector require persons with higher education qualifications and industry skills and experience.

National growth in jobs of 12.5% is projected for the 5 years to 2022.61

Table 31. Professional & Technical Services Jobs – Gateway LLEN Region LGAs – 2016 (no.) Professional & Technical

Services Manningham Monash

Whitehorse

Males

Females

Persons

Share % Males

Females

Persons

Share % Males

Females

Persons

Share %

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services, nfd 4 3 9 0.4 39 19 54 0.6 24 16 38 0.7

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 827 782 1,606 71.3 3,618 2,963 6,579 75.5 1,798 1,962 3,759 66.0

Computer System Design and Related Services 452 185 640 28.4 1,556 523 2,075 23.8 1,421 481 1,901 33.4

Total 1,282 967 2,252 100.0 5,211 3,500 8,717 100.0 3,241 2,455 5,697 100.0



60 Australian Jobs 2018 , Department of Jobs and Small Business P11. 61 Australian Jobs 2018 , Department of Jobs and Small Business P11.

92

Retail

Retail is a major sector in the Gateway LLEN region. Growth is largely linked to local population growth.

In 2016 total jobs were 23,574 jobs in the region (Monash 10,821 or 46%); Whitehorse (7325 or 31%); and Manningham (5428 or 23%).

Between 2011 and 2016 the number of jobs increased by 1925 or 9% (Monash 1172 or 12%; Whitehorse 251 or 4%; and Manningham 502 or 20%). Jobs have increased in food retailing, but jobs in department stores have declined due to changes in discretionary consumption and increase in online spending.

Retail sector will continue to provide entrance level jobs for young people. National growth in retail jobs of 3.7% is projected for the 5 years to 2022.62

Table 32. Retail Jobs – Gateway LLEN Region LGAs – 2016 (no.) Retail Manningham Monash Whitehorse

Males

Females

Persons

Share % Males

Females

Persons

Share % Males

Females

Persons

Share %

Retail Trade, nfd 65 84 150 2.8 205 193 399 3.7 134 133 271 3.7

Motor Vehicle and Motor Vehicle Parts Retailing 352 113 461 8.5 909 330 1,235 11.4 573 172 747 10.2

Fuel Retailing 63 30 94 1.7 167 95 270 2.5 87 38 126 1.7

Food Retailing 796 793 1,592 29.3 1,946 1,545 3,488 32.2 1,128 1,070 2,195 30.0

Other Store-based Retailing 791 2,315 3,108 57.3 2,278 2,940 5,214 48.2 1,685 2,249 3,938 53.8

Non-store Retailing & Retail Commission-based Buying and/or Selling 3 21 24 0.4 111 103 215 2.0 26 25 55 0.8

Total 2,075 3,357 5,428 100.0 5,617 5,208 10,821 100.0 3,636 3,689 7,325 100.0



Key Issues : Retail • Population is expected to generate growth in food retailing jobs (eg supermarkets and specialty food stores).

• Jobs in department stores are likely to continue to contract.

• Online retailing will continue expand for consumer spending.

• This sector will continue to provide part-time jobs for young people , including students

• Retail provides entry level jobs for young people and enables them to gain experience, prior to entering other industries.

Accommodation & Foods Services

Accommodation and food services are a major sector in the Gateway LLEN region. Growth in food services is largely linked to local population growth and tourism.

In 2016 total jobs were 10,772 jobs in the region (Monash 4589 or 43%); Whitehorse (3733 or 35%); and Manningham (2450 or 23%).

Between 2011 and 2016 the number of jobs in the Gateway LLEN region increased by 2753 or 34% (Monash 1302 or 40%; Whitehorse 1034 or 38 %; and Manningham 420 or 21%).

Most of the jobs in the region are concentrated in Food and Beverage Services 10,125 – cafes, restaurants and bars - Monash 4216 jobs; Whitehorse 1852 and Manningham 2539.

The sector provides jobs for people with qualifications and those with no qualifications. It continues to be an entry point for young people into the workforce (including part-time jobs).

National growth in Accommodation and Food Services jobs of 11.2% is projected for the 5 years to 2022.63

62 Australian Jobs 2018 , Department of Jobs and Small Business P11. 63 Australian Jobs 2018 , Department of Jobs and Small Business P11.

93

Table 33. Accommodation & Foods Services– Gateway LLEN Region LGAs – 2016 (no.) Accommodation & Foods Services Manningham

Monash Whitehorse




%

Accommodation & Food Services nfd 3 4 4 0.2 13 3 14 0.3 4 4 8 0.2

Accommodation 42 46 87 3.6 164 196 361 7.9 63 114 176 4.7

Food and Beverage Services 1,168 1,196 2,359 96.3 2,041 2,170 4,216 91.9 1,699 1,852 3,550 95.1

Total 1,211 1,240 2,450 100.0 2,214 2,376 4,589 100.0 1,766 1,963 3,733 100.0



Key Issues : Accommodation & Food Services • Jobs in food and beverage services are projected to increase by 11% in the 5 years to 2022.

• Growth is linked to increase in population in the LGAs, continuing growth in dining out, and spending by visitors to the areas.

• Food and beverage services will continue to provide entry level jobs and part-time jobs for young persons aged 15-24, including persons without qualifications and students working part-time.

• VET training will cover chefs and other employees

3.5 Education and Employment Outcomes

The analysis of employment trends and outlooks at the national, state and regional level, show that the fastest growth is occurring in those industries that require higher levels of qualification (higher education or VET). Most service industries are experiencing continuing growth with increases in employment forecast. This is particularly the case in health, education and professional services.64 In addition most of the occupations identified as in shortage also require qualifications.

3.5.1 Education and Jobs

The analysis shows that an increasing proportion of jobs available are for skilled workers, and workers with qualifications generally do better in the labour market.

• Most of the employment growth over the five years to end 2017 has been in occupations that generally require post-school qualifications (either VET or higher education). The national job projections out to 2012 see this long-term trend continuing with the majority of jobs growth occurring in higher skilled occupations.65

• The number of persons undertaking post school training has increased and more workers now hold post-school qualifications. In 2016, 67% of workers held post-school qualifications (up from 58% in 2006). In 2016 31% of workers held a Certificate III or higher VET qualification (up from 27% in 2006) and 30% held a bachelor degree or higher qualification (up from 22% in 2006).

In both the short term and long term persons with qualifications have better employment outcomes than those who have not completed any further training after leaving school. The chart shows the direct relationship between education and labour market outcomes. Persons with qualifications have a higher participation rate and much lower rates of unemployment.

Labour Market Outcomes by Highest Level of Educational Attainment, 2016 (%)

64 Australian Jobs 2018, Department of Jobs and Small Business 65 Australian Jobs 2018, Department of Jobs and Small Business P31-32

94

Source: Australian Jobs 2018, Department of Jobs and Small Business P32

Higher qualifications also generally lead to increased wages.

Median Weekly Earnings in Main Job, by Highest Level of Post-School Qualification, 2016 ($)

Source: Australian Jobs 2018, Department of Jobs and Small Business P32

3.5.2 Skill Shortages

The following table shows occupations identified as having skill shortages in 2017/18. These cover a range of occupations including: health professionals, skilled trades (engineering, automotive, air-conditioning, construction trades, food trades) and other occupations.66 These skill shortages provide an indication of potential future jobs for young people planning education and training and future entry into the workforce.

Table 34. Skill Shortages – Victoria & National 2017-18 Shortages (2017-18)

Victoria

Shortages (2017-18)

National Shortages

(22017-18)

1. Professionals

Design, Engineering, Science and Transport Professionals

Architect √ √ Surveyor √ √ Civil Engineering Professional √ √ 2. Health Professionals

Sonographer √ √ Physiotherapist √ √

3. Technicians and Trades Workers

Automotive and Engineering Trades Workers

Automotive Electrician √ Motor Mechanic (General) √ √

Diesel Mechanic √ √ Motorcycle Mechanic √ Sheet metal Trades Worker √ √ Structural Steel & Welding Trades Workers √ √ Metal Fabricator √ √ Welder (First Class) √ √ Metal Fitters & Machinists √ √ Metal Machinists (First Class) √ √ Panel beater √ √ Vehicle Painter √ √ 4.Construction Trades Workers

Bricklayer √ √ Carpenters & Joiners √ √ Painting Trades Worker √ √ Fibrous Plasterer √ √ Plumbers √ √ Cabinet Maker √ √ 5. Electro technology and Telecommunications Trades Workers Air-conditioning and Refrigeration Mechanic √ √ 6.Food Trades Baker √ √

Source: Rating Summary- Labour Market Analysis of Skilled Occupations, Department of Jobs and Small Business, 2018

66 Rating Summary- Labour Market Analysis of Skilled Occupations, Department of Jobs and Small Business , 2018

95

4 Community & Family

4.1 Household Structure

The total number of families in the Gateway LLEN region (Manningham, Monash and Whitehorse LGAs) at the 2016 Census was 122,486. This comprised 61,107 couple families with children living with them; 42,498 couple families with no children; 16,459 one parent families; and 2422 other family types.67 The key family types that the Gateway LLEN is most interested in are: couple families with children; and one parent families with children.

• Manningham: there were 16,591 families that were couple families with children, and 4091 families that were one parent families accounting for 52% and 12% of total families in the LGA respectively.

• Monash: there were 23,551 families that were couple families with children, and 6450 families that were one parent families accounting for 49% and 14% of total families in the LGA respectively.

• Whitehorse: there were 20,965 families that were couple families with children, and 5912 families that were one parent families accounting for 50% and 14% of total families in the LGA respectively.

Table 35. Household Structure –Gateway LLEN Region LGAs 2016

Summary -Families Manningham Monash Whitehorse Total

Region Manningha

m Monash Whitehorse

no. no. no. No. % Share % Share % Share

Couple family with no children 11,609 16,261 14,628 42,498 35.4 34.3 34.5

Couple family with children under 15 9,423 14,789 13,784 37,996 28.8 31.2 32.6

Couple family with no children under 15 7,168 8,762 7,181 23,111 21.9 18.5 17.0

One parent family with children under 15 1,428 2,310 2,050 5,788 4.4 4.9 4.8

One parent family with no children under 15 2,663 4,146 3,862 10,671 8.1 8.8 9.1

Other family 481 1,102 839 2,422 1.5 2.3 2.0

Total 32,772 47,370 42,344 122,486 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: ABS Census 2016, General Community Profile, Table G25 Family Composition


67 ABS Census 2016, General Community Profile, Table G25 Family Composition. Family Composition, count of families and persons in families in occupied private dwellings. (Note: includes same-sex couple families, excludes family members temporarily absent on Census Night).

11,609

9,423

7,168

1,428

2,663

481

16,261

14,789

8,762

2,310

4,146

1,102

14,628

13,784

7,181

2,050

3,862

839

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000

Couple family with no children

Couple family with children under 15

Couple family with no children under 15

One parent family with children under 15

One parent family with no children under 15

Other family

Family Structure - Gateway LLEN Region 2016 - Family Types (no.)

Manningham

Monash

Whitehorse

96


The data indicates Whitehorse LGA has a slightly higher proportion of One Parent families than Manningham and Monash.

One Parent families are often more disadvantaged than other family types and generally have lower family income levels.

4.2 Family Income

The total weekly family income of Couple Families with children and One Parent Families for the three LGAs are presented below.

In all of the three LGAs, Couple Families were most likely to have a weekly family income of greater than $1500 - Manningham (77%), Monash (74%), and Whitehorse (78%).

In the case of one parent around one third had weekly family incomes of less than $800 - Manningham (32%), Monash (34%), and Whitehorse (33%).

In general, the weekly incomes of one parent family (with children) are substantially below those of

couple families (with children).

Table 36. Total Family Income (Weekly) By Family Composition, Manningham LGA 2016

Count of families in

family households

Manningham LGA Couple family with no children

Couple family with children

One parent family

Other family Total

Negative/Nil income 389 137 234 32 783

$1-$149 195 56 60 15 317

$150-$299 98 73 107 12 289

$300-$399 48 60 109 10 231

$400-$499 579 111 150 22 874

$500-$649 295 179 252 23 760

$650-$799 1,333 336 309 39 2,021

$800-$999 893 525 360 41 1,821

$1,000-$1,249 1,068 765 425 47 2,302

$1,250-$1,499 934 898 344 43 2,218

$1,500-$1,749 564 934 264 27 1,795

$1,750-$1,999 657 968 228 26 1,875

$2,000-$2,499 1,090 2,045 303 44 3,482

$2,500-$2,999 751 1,684 157 22 2,611

$3,000-$3,499 500 1,312 89 16 1,923

$3,500-$3,999 373 1,128 86 9 1,600

$4,000 or more 850 3,118 120 19 4,104

Partial income stated 723 2,088 428 24 3,258

All incomes not stated 266 176 68 9 516

Total 11,609 16,586 4,092 481 32,771

Source: ABS Census 2016, General Community Profile, Table G28 Total Family Income (Weekly) By Family Composition

35.4

28.8

21.9

4.4

8.1

1.5

34.3

31.2

18.5

4.9

8.8

2.3

34.5

32.6

17.0

4.8

9.1

2.0

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0


Couple family with children under 15

Couple family with no children under 15

One parent family with children under 15

One parent family with no children under 15

Other family

Family Structure - Gateway LLEN Region 2016 - Family Types (% share)

Manningham

Monash

Whitehorse

97


Table 37. Total Family Income (Weekly) By Family Composition, Monash LGA 2016

Count of families(a) in

family households(b)

Monash LGA


Couple family

with children

One parent family

Other family

Total

Negative/Nil income 695 184 348 94 1,320

$1-$149 218 80 130 31 461

$150-$299 182 101 191 40 507

$300-$399 123 96 184 12 416

$400-$499 856 176 293 41 1,367

$500-$649 412 312 449 46 1,213

$650-$799 1,988 505 499 54 3,048

$800-$999 1,230 803 526 104 2,659

$1,000-$1,249 1,535 1,317 700 138 3,688

$1,250-$1,499 1,265 1,349 528 110 3,245

$1,500-$1,749 794 1,408 424 76 2,694

$1,750-$1,999 792 1,530 363 49 2,740

$2,000-$2,499 1,669 3,361 562 101 5,695

$2,500-$2,999 1,163 2,582 234 62 4,035

$3,000-$3,499 704 1,908 108 42 2,751

$3,500-$3,999 474 1,504 96 12 2,088

$4,000 or more 906 3,537 140 30 4,617

Partial income stated(c) 976 2,650 583 38 4,240

All incomes not stated(d) 287 165 103 19 574

Total 16,261 23,549 6,452 1,102 47,364


0.8

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.7

1.1

2.0

3.2

4.6

5.4

5.6

5.8

12.3

10.2

7.9

6.8

18.8

5.7

1.5

2.6

2.7

3.7

6.2

7.6

8.8

10.4

8.4

6.5

5.6

7.4

3.8

2.2

2.1

2.9

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0

Negative/Nil income

$1-$149

$150-$299

$300-$399

$400-$499

$500-$649

$650-$799

$800-$999

$1,000-$1,249

$1,250-$1,499

$1,500-$1,749

$1,750-$1,999

$2,000-$2,499

$2,500-$2,999

$3,000-$3,499

$3,500-$3,999

$4,000 or more

Weekly Family Income by Family Type - Manningham LGA 2016 (% share)

One parent family

Couple family - with children

98


Table 38. Total Family Income (Weekly) By Family Composition, Whitehorse LGA 2016

Count of families in family households

Whitehorse LGA

Couple family

with no children

Couple family with

children

One parent family

Other family

Total

Negative/Nil income 554 153 278 61 1,043

$1-$149 196 55 90 21 352

$150-$299 143 85 177 28 434

$300-$399 94 57 150 13 316

$400-$499 663 155 244 23 1,092

$500-$649 359 237 356 38 989

$650-$799 1,557 385 451 57 2,449

$800-$999 1,090 637 535 81 2,340

$1,000-$1,249 1,439 1,022 669 86 3,212

$1,250-$1,499 1,246 1,080 482 71 2,884

$1,500-$1,749 739 1,098 405 66 2,300

$1,750-$1,999 784 1,245 345 64 2,442

$2,000-$2,499 1,513 2,857 521 84 4,972

$2,500-$2,999 1,064 2,463 219 39 3,785

$3,000-$3,499 704 1,808 92 20 2,628

$3,500-$3,999 452 1,452 131 12 2,047

$4,000 or more 911 3,768 109 27 4,805

Partial income stated(c) 904 2,253 562 28 3,752

All incomes not stated(d) 226 168 88 8 484

Total 14,628 20,963 5,910 839 42,332


0.8

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.7

1.3

2.1

3.4

5.6

5.7

6.0

6.5

14.3

11.0

8.1

6.4

15.0

5.4

2.0

3.0

2.9

4.5

7.0

7.7

8.2

10.8

8.2

6.6

5.6

8.7

3.6

1.7

1.5

2.2

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0

Negative/Nil income

$1-$149

$150-$299

$300-$399

$400-$499

$500-$649

$650-$799

$800-$999

$1,000-$1,249

$1,250-$1,499

$1,500-$1,749

$1,750-$1,999

$2,000-$2,499

$2,500-$2,999

$3,000-$3,499

$3,500-$3,999

$4,000 or more

Weekly Family Income by Family Type - Monash LGA 2016 (% share)

One parent family


99


0.7

0.3

0.4

0.3

0.7

1.1

1.8

3.0

4.9

5.2

5.2

5.9

13.6

11.7

8.6

6.9

18.0

4.7

1.5

3.0

2.5

4.1

6.0

7.6

9.1

11.3

8.2

6.9

5.8

8.8

3.7

1.6

2.2

1.8

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0

Negative/Nil income

$1-$149

$150-$299

$300-$399

$400-$499

$500-$649

$650-$799

$800-$999

$1,000-$1,249

$1,250-$1,499

$1,500-$1,749

$1,750-$1,999

$2,000-$2,499

$2,500-$2,999

$3,000-$3,499

$3,500-$3,999

$4,000 or more

Weekly Family Income by Family Type - Whitehorse LGA 2016 (% share)

One parent family


100

5 Young People

5.1 Student Population

5.1.1 Young People in the Gateway LLEN region

The age brackets 10-14 years and 15-19 years are target age groups for Local Learning and Employment Networks (LLENs) across Victoria. The 20-24 year age group is also important as early school leavers and young people re-engaging with education are often in this age bracket.

There were a total of 58,633 young people aged 10-19 in the Gateway LLEN Region in 2016 and 44,952 aged 20-24 years.

• In 2016 Manningham had 23,172 people aged between 10-24 years of age, Monash had 44,530 and Whitehorse had 35,883.68

• In the key 10-19 years grouping, Manningham had 14,941 people, Monash had 23,060 and Whitehorse had 20,632.

Source: ID estimates 2018 based on ABS Census 2016 data

Table 39. Population – Gateway LLEN Region Selected Age Groups 2017 (persons no.) Estimates 2017 Manningham Monash Whitehorse Total Gateway LLEN Region

Persons - 0-4 years 6,346 10,064 9,601 26,011

Persons - 5-9 years 7,074 10,943 9,989 28,006

Persons - 10-14 years 7,045 10,231 9,672 26,948

Persons - 15-19 years 7,896 12,829 10,960 31,685

Persons - 20-24 years 8,231 21,470 15,251 44,952 Total Persons 10-19 years 14,941 23,060 20,632 58,633

Total Persons 10-24 years 23,172 44,530 35,883 103,585

Source: ID estimates 2018 based on ABS Census 2016 data

68 ID estimates 2018 based on ABS Census 2016 data

Persons - 0-4 years Persons - 5-9 yearsPersons - 10-14



years

Whitehorse 9,601 9,989 9,672 10,960 15,251

Monash 10,064 10,943 10,231 12,829 21,470

Manningham 6,346 7,074 7,045 7,896 8,231

6,346 7,074 7,045 7,896 8,231

10,064 10,943 10,231 12,829 21,470

9,601 9,989 9,672 10,960

15,251

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Estimated Population Young Persons - Gateway LLEN Region LGAs 2017 (no.)

101

Table 40. Population Estimates Young Persons 2012-2017 – Manningham LGA Manningham LGA 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Males

Males - 0-4 years (no.) 2,892 2,943 3,041 3,127 3,172 3,278

Males - 5-9 years (no.) 3,281 3,357 3,400 3,471 3,610 3,687

Males - 10-14 years (no.) 3,550 3,512 3,527 3,540 3,614 3,698

Males - 15-19 years (no.) 3,847 3,832 3,956 3,995 4,100 4,159

Males - 20-24 years (no.) 4,178 4,176 4,135 4,181 4,219 4,328


Females - 5-9 years (no.) 3,012 3,037 3,087 3,171 3,348 3,387

Females - 10-14 years (no.) 3,251 3,225 3,274 3,318 3,319 3,347

Females - 15-19 years (no.) 3,617 3,599 3,632 3,683 3,776 3,737

Females - 20-24 years (no.) 3,936 3,829 3,742 3,721 3,789 3,903


Persons - 5-9 years (no.) 6,293 6,394 6,487 6,642 6,958 7,074

Persons - 10-14 years (no.) 6,801 6,737 6,801 6,858 6,933 7,045

Persons - 15-19 years (no.) 7,464 7,431 7,588 7,678 7,876 7,896

Persons - 20-24 years (no.) 8,114 8,005 7,877 7,902 8,008 8,231

Source: ID estimates based on ABS Census 2016 Data (November 2017)

Table 41. Population Estimates Young Persons 2012-2017 – Monash LGA Monash LGA 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Males

Males - 0-4 years (no.) 4,759 4,982 5,109 5,187 5,309 5,220

Males - 5-9 years (no.) 4,713 4,835 4,979 5,127 5,359 5,603

Males - 10-14 years (no.) 4,688 4,789 4,947 5,099 5,195 5,326

Males - 15-19 years (no.) 5,995 6,248 6,444 6,597 6,708 6,515

Males - 20-24 years (no.) 9,491 9,329 9,385 9,691 10,124 11,234


Females - 5-9 years (no.) 4,421 4,599 4,789 5,009 5,170 5,340

Females - 10-14 years (no.) 4,506 4,566 4,660 4,718 4,840 4,905

Females - 15-19 years (no.) 5,593 5,858 6,065 6,273 6,430 6,314

Females - 20-24 years (no.) 8,306 8,352 8,490 8,709 9,097 10,236


Persons - 5-9 years (no.) 9,134 9,434 9,768 10,136 10,529 10,943

Persons - 10-14 years (no.) 9,194 9,355 9,607 9,817 10,035 10,231

Persons - 15-19 years (no.) 11,588 12,106 12,509 12,870 13,138 12,829

Persons - 20-24 years (no.) 17,797 17,681 17,875 18,400 19,221 21,470


Table 42. Population Estimates Young Persons 2012-2017 – Whitehorse LGA Whitehorse 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Males

Males - 0-4 years (no.) 4,620 4,656 4,691 4,756 4,898 4,917

Males - 5-9 years (no.) 4,760 4,858 4,883 4,911 4,970 5,071

Males - 10-14 years (no.) 4,526 4,609 4,739 4,801 4,873 4,974

Males - 15-19 years (no.) 4,794 4,919 5,061 5,220 5,466 5,515

Males - 20-24 years (no.) 6,798 6,847 7,023 7,238 7,488 8,102


Females - 5-9 years (no.) 4,454 4,627 4,664 4,780 4,895 4,918

Females - 10-14 years (no.) 4,251 4,327 4,475 4,514 4,582 4,698

Females - 15-19 years (no.) 4,812 4,895 5,010 5,214 5,387 5,445

Females - 20-24 years (no.) 6,432 6,443 6,445 6,514 6,717 7,149


Persons - 5-9 years (no.) 9,214 9,485 9,547 9,691 9,865 9,989

Persons - 10-14 years (no.) 8,777 8,936 9,214 9,315 9,455 9,672

Persons - 15-19 years (no.) 9,606 9,814 10,071 10,434 10,853 10,960

Persons - 20-24 years (no.) 13,230 13,290 13,468 13,752 14,205 15,251


102

5.1.2 Student Population Projections

For the 2016-2036 period recent population projections show a continued increase in the number of persons in the school age population of 10-14 years and 15-19 years in the Gateway LLEN Region.69

The growth is most pronounced in Whitehorse in the 15-19 age group, increasing from 10,859 in 2016 to 13,452 in 2026.

Source: Population forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by.id, the population experts, November 2017.

69 Population forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, November 2017

Manningham2016

Manningham2026

Manningham2036

Monash 2016 Monash 2026 Monash 2036Whitehorse

2016Whitehorse

2026Whitehorse

2036

20 to 24 8,067 9,155 9,508 19,289 19,943 20,584 14,280 17,174 17,288

15 to 19 7,875 8,567 8,799 13,181 14,406 14,771 10,859 13,342 13,352

10 to 14 6,938 7,505 8,048 10,040 10,642 11,167 9,453 9,627 10,226

5 to 9 6,941 7,198 7,789 10,556 10,406 10,738 9,869 9,506 10,155

0 to 4 6,172 7,244 7,695 10,213 10,553 10,835 9,615 10,663 11,328

6,938 7,505 8,048

10,040 10,642 11,167 9,453 9,627 10,226

7,875 8,567 8,799

13,181 14,406 14,771

10,859 13,342 13,352

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Pe

rso

ns

Population Projections - Gateway LLEN Region LGAs 2016-2036- Young Persons (no.)

103

6 Education and Training

6.1 Learning and Attainment

Year 12 Attainment Attaining Year 12 or an equivalent qualification is important for young people for their further education or for employment. With the declining number of low skilled jobs, students who fail to attain Year 12 have fewer employment opportunities and are more likely to experience extended periods of unemployment and lower earnings than Year 12 graduates.

Year 12 or an equivalent qualification, such as an apprenticeship or Certificate III qualification, is important because it underpins further education, training and higher-skilled employment.

All three LGAs in the Gateway LLEN Region have consistently higher attainment rates than the average for Victoria.

Key Issues • Year 12 or equivalent attainment in the Gateway LLEN region has been consistently above the average rate for Victoria.

• While the attainment rate is high, there are still students who are not completing Year 12 or equivalent qualifications, through earlier disengagement from education or training. These contribute to the targets for programs facilitated by Gateway LLEN.

6.2 Schooling Completed

Highest Year of School Completed

The following charts provide an analysis of the Highest Level of School Completed for persons aged 15 to 19 years, who are no longer attending primary or secondary school in the three LGAs. This data provides a snapshot of the Year 12 or equivalent attainment for young people. Females had a higher level of Year 12 completions in all three LGAs.

Monash had the highest proportion of people (aged 15-19 years) with a Year 12 or equivalent qualification (83.2% for females and 78.9% for males) compared to Manningham (82.0% females, 74% males) and Whitehorse (79.6% females, 73.4% males).

Compared with 2011 Year 12 completions have continued to increase for both males and females in all three LGAs.

Source: ABS Census 2016, General Community Profile

74.0

78.9

73.4

82.0

83.2

79.6

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0

Manningham

Monash

Whitehorse

Year 12 or Equivalent - Persons 15-19 Years Gateway LLEN Region 2016 (%)

Males 15-19

Females 15-19

104





1049

109

97

31

15

6

120

1099

49

58

19

6

3

112

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200





Year 8 or below



Highest Level of School - Aged 15-19 Manningham LGA 2016 (no.)



74.0

7.7

6.8

2.2

1.1

0.4

8.5

82.0

3.7

4.3

1.4

0.4

0.2

8.4

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0





Year 8 or below



Highest Level of School - Aged 15-19 Manningham LGA 2016 (%)



2381

177

148

38

16

10

259

2538

128

103

30

17

6

228

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000





Year 8 or below



Highest Level of School - Aged 15-19 Monash LGA 2016 (no.)

Males 15-19 Monash


78.9

5.9

4.9

1.3

0.5

0.3

8.6

83.2

4.2

3.4

1.0

0.6

0.2

7.5

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0





Year 8 or below



Highest Level of School - Aged 15-19 Monash LGA 2016 (%)

Males 15-19 Monash


105



Key Issues • Of the three LGAs in the region Whitehorse had the lowest proportion of 15 to 19 year olds (no longer attending school) with

a Year 12 or equivalent qualification (73% males and 79 females).

• There is a need for transitions support for young people (particularly males) to improve educational attainment, particularly for males.

6.3 Post-School Qualifications

The following charts show the qualifications data from the 2016 Census for 15 to 24 year olds. The data show a higher proportion of certificate courses for males and a higher proportion of bachelor degrees for females.

Manningham (18.3%) had a greater proportion of 15 to 24 year olds with Certificate III and IV Level qualifications compared to Monash (13.8%) and Whitehorse (17.4%). For higher education qualifications – Monash (43.2%) and Manningham (41.5%) had a greater proportion of 15 to 24 year olds with Bachelor degrees compared to Whitehorse (39.5%).

There is a need to continue to improve post-school qualification levels in the region, through a focus on career pathways/ education and skills development opportunities.

1555

157

132

63

28

6

170

1643

102

82

35

27

0

177

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800





Year 8 or below



Highest Level of School - Aged 15-19 Whitehorse LGA 2016 (no.)



73.4

7.4

6.2

3.0

1.3

0.3

8.0

79.6

4.9

4.0

1.7

1.3

0.0

8.6

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0





Year 8 or below



Highest Level of School - Aged 15-19 Whitehorse LGA 2016 (%)



106



159

315

231

30

93

81

1,674

4,071

2,869

581

1,534

1,325

738

1,304

1,263

92

189

165

82

147

122

919

1,635

1,549

40

156

88

631

1,619

1,126

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

Persons 15-24

Persons 15-24

Persons 15-24

Man

nin

gham

Mo

nas

hW

hit

eho

rse

Post School Qualifications Residents 15-24 - Gateway LLEN Region LGAs 2016 (no.)


Graduate Diploma and GraduateCertificate Level



Certificate Level:




Total Certificate



3.9

3.3

3.2

0.7

1.0

1.1

41.5

43.2

39.5

14.4

16.3

18.3

18.3

13.8

17.4

2.3

2.0

2.3

2.0

1.6

1.7

22.8

17.4

21.3

1.0

1.7

1.2

15.7

17.2

15.5

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0

Persons 15-24

Persons 15-24

Persons 15-24

Man

nin

gham

Mo

nas

hW

hit

eho

rse

Post School Qualifications Residents 15-24 - Gateway LLEN Region LGAs 2016 (% share)


Graduate Diploma and GraduateCertificate Level



Certificate Level:




Total Certificate


107



60

9

756

280

464

45

33

547

25

325

99

21

918

301

274

47

49

372

15

306

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000





Certificate Level:




Total Certificate



Post School Qualifications - Manningham LGA 15-24 Years 15-24 2016 (no.)


3.0

0.4

37.8

14.0

23.2

2.2

1.6

27.3

1.2

16.2

4.9

1.0

45.3

14.8

13.5

2.3

2.4

18.4

0.7

15.1

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0





Certificate Level:




Total Certificate



Post School Qualifications - Manningham LGA 15-24 Years 2016 (%)


108



147

34

1,872

790

811

88

71

964

73

860

168

59

2,199

744

493

101

76

671

83

759

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500





Certificate Level:




Total Certificate



Post School Qualifications 15-24 Years - Monash LGA 2016 (no.)


3.1

0.7

39.5

16.7

17.1

1.9

1.5

20.4

1.5

18.2

3.6

1.3

46.9

15.9

10.5

2.2

1.6

14.3

1.8

16.2

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0





Certificate Level:




Total Certificate



Post School Qualifications 15-24 Years - Monash LGA 2016 (% Share)


109



94

18

1,293

649

756

95

58

907

47

592

137

63

1,576

676

507

70

64

642

41

534

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800





Certificate Level:




Total Certificate



Post School Qualifications 15-24 Years - Whitehorse LGA 2016 (no.)


2.6

0.5

36.0

18.1

21.0

2.6

1.6

25.2

1.3

16.5

3.7

1.7

43.0

18.4

13.8

1.9

1.7

17.5

1.1

14.6

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0





Certificate Level:




Total Certificate



Post School Qualifications 15-24 Years - Whitehorse LGA 2016 (% Share)


110

6.4 Disadvantaged Priority Groups

6.4.1 Disengaged Youth Engagement 15-19 Year Olds Young people, who are disengaged, are often not recognised in more affluent areas and they can slip through the networks. Much of the contact with these disengaged young people is through the outreach workers of the local Councils. There is often little or no funding available for case management work. A recent analysis using ABS Census 2016 data indicates that around 8%-9% of young persons 15-19 years could be classified as disengaged. The highest rate in 2016 was in Whitehorse (9.3%) 1009 persons, with Manningham (8.9%) 671 and Monash 8.7% 1143.

Table 43. Youth (15-19 Years) Engagement in Work/Study (%) Youth (15-19 Years) Engagement in Work/Study Manningham Monash Whitehorse

Total Region

2011 2016 2011 2016 2011 2016 2011 2016

Working full-time and studying part-time (%) 1.5 0.9 0.9 0.5 1.0 0.8 1.1 0.7

Working part time and studying part-time (%) 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.8

Working part-time and studying full-time (%) 23.9 23.9 21.4 20.0 25.6 24.9 23.4 22.6

Working full-time (not studying) (%) 2.6 1.4 2.1 1.1 2.4 1.7 2.3 1.4

Studying full-time (not working) (%) 60.6 62.6 63.3 67.4 57.4 60.7 60.7 63.9

Working full-time and studying full-time (%) 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.2

Fully engaged (%) 92.0 91.1 90.4 91.3 90.1 90.7 90.7 91.0

Disengaged (%) 8.0 8.9 9.6 8.7 9.9 9.3 9.3 9.0

Total persons aged 15-19 years (no.) 7380 7542 11,588 13,138 9 175 10,853 28,143 31,533

Source: ID Data Community Profile (November 2017) & MCa estimates. Based on ABS Census 2016 data.

Table 44. Youth (15-19 Years) Engagement in Work/Study Persons (no.) Youth (15-19 Years) Engagement in Work/Study Manningham Monash Whitehorse

Total Region

Persons (no.) 2011 2016 2011 2016 2011 2016 2011 2016

Working full-time and studying part-time 111 68 104 66 92 87 307 220

Working part time and studying part-time 74 75 58 79 101 87 233 241

Working part-time and studying full-time 1764 1803 2480 2628 2349 2702 6,592 7,133

Working full-time (not studying) 192 106 243 145 220 185 655 435

Studying full-time (not working) 4472 4721 7335 8855 5266 6588 17,074 20,164

Working full-time and studying full-time 30 15 46 13 37 22 113 50

Fully engaged 6790 6871 10476 11995 8267 9844 25,532 28,709

Disengaged 590 671 1112 1143 908 1009 2,611 2,824

Total persons aged 15-19 years (no.) 7380 7542 11,588 13,138 9175 10,853 28,143 31,533



8.08.9

9.68.7

9.99.3 9.3 9.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

2011 2016 2011 2016 2011 2016 2011 2016

Manningham Manningham Monash Monash Whitehorse Whitehorse Total GatewayRegion

Total GatewayRegion

Disengaged Persons Gateway LLEN Region LGAs 2011 & 2016 (%)

111

Source: ID Data Community Profile (November 2017) & MCa estimates. . Based on ABS Census 2016 data

Engagement 15-24 Year Olds

Engagement in employment and education looks at the level of participation by age and sex of the population in the labour market, or full or part-time education. A full time employed or full-time student would be "Fully engaged", while part-time students may be fully engaged if they are also employed, or partly engaged if they are not working. The rate of engagement, particularly in the younger and working age groups can be affected by access to strong employment and education markets. 70 The Gateway LLEN Region LGAs has lower levels of disengagement compared with the average for Greater Melbourne (7.5%) - Monash 4.2%, Whitehorse 4.9% and Manningham 5.0%. Accordingly the levels of full engagement are above the Greater Melbourne average (77.4%).

Table 45. Engagement Status – Gateway LLEN Region LGAs 2016 – Persons 15-24 Years Persons 15-24 Years 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016

Engagement status Manningham Monash Whitehorse

Greater Melbourne

no. % no. % no. % %

Fully engaged 12,456 84.4 25,913 85.7 19,608 83.6 77.4

Partially engaged 1,135 7.7 1,849 6.1 1,900 8.1 9.9

Disengaged 744 5.0 1,271 4.2 1,141 4.9 7.5

Undetermined/Not stated 426 2.9 1,215 4.0 815 3.5 5.3

Total 14,761 100.0 30,248 100.0 23,464 100.0 100.0

Source: ID Data Community Profile (November 2017) & MCa estimates

Source: ID Data Community Profile (November 2017) & MCa estimates. Note Disengaged = neither in employment or education.

70 Definition by ID data to explain estimates for 2016.

6,790 6,871

10,476 11,995

8,267 9,844

25,532

28,709

590 671 1,112 1,143 908 1,009 2,611 2,824

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2011 2016 2011 2016 2011 2016 2011 2016

ManninghamManningham Monash Monash Whitehorse WhitehorseTotal Gateway RegionTotal Gateway Region

Engaged/Disengaged Persons Gateway LLEN Region LGAs 2011 & 2016 (no.)

Fully engaged (no.)

Disengaged (no.)

84.4

85.7

83.6

77.4

7.7

6.1

8.1

9.9

5.0

4.2

4.9

7.5

2.9

4.0

3.5

5.3

- 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0

%

%

%

%

Man

nin

gham

Mo

nas

hW

hit

eho

rse

Gre

ater

Me

lbo

urn

e

Engagement Status Persons 15-24 Years - Gateway LLEN Region LGAs 2016 (%)

Fully engaged

Partially engaged

Disengaged

Undetermined/Not stated

112

6.4.2 CALD Youth and Refugees

The City of Monash is culturally diverse, with 51.6% of residents born overseas. Newly arrived migrants are mainly from China, India, Sri Lanka and Malaysia. There has been some settlement of refugees in the southern half of the city (Oakleigh and Clayton). Refugee young people often require extra assistance with schooling and homework, as their education may have previously been disrupted or non-existent. Within the Gateway LLEN region, Manningham LGA (41.7% overseas born) and Whitehorse LGA (40.2% overseas born) are also increasingly culturally diverse with significant Vietnamese, Chinese, Malaysian and Indian communities.

Table 46. Birthplace of Residents – Gateway LLEN Region LGAs 2016 (Persons)

Manningham Monash Whitehorse Birthplace: Persons % Persons % Persons %

Australia 64,768 58.3 84,068 48.4 92,759 59.8

Elsewhere 46,376 41.7 89,590 51.6 62,351 40.2

Total 111,144 100.0 173,658 100.0 155,110 100.0 Source: ABS Census 2016, General Community Profile, Table G01 Selected Person Characteristics by Sex

6.4.3 Indigenous Population

The indigenous cohort of residents in the region is small, a total of 985 persons in 2016. ABS Census 2016 data indicates that there were 213 Indigenous persons in Manningham LGA, 358 in Whitehorse LGA and 414 in Monash LGA. Only a small number of these persons were aged 10-19 years: Manningham 44 (20.7%); Monash 98 (23.6%) and Whitehorse 67 (18.7%).

Source: ABS Census 2016, General Community Profile, Table G01 Selected Person Characteristics by Sex

Table 47. Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander – Gateway LLEN Region LGAs 2016 Manning

ham Monash

Whitehorse

Age Group Males Females Persons Share % Males Females Persons Share % Males Females Persons Share %

0-4 14 11 20 9.4 20 19 40 9.7 15 12 31 8.7

5-9 9 8 23 10.8 13 19 33 8.0 12 12 28 7.8

10-14 10 12 20 9.4 14 24 37 8.9 21 13 37 10.3

15-19 9 8 24 11.3 29 29 61 14.7 15 11 30 8.4

20-24 8 14 21 9.9 19 30 53 12.8 23 17 41 11.5

25-29 9 8 12 5.6 16 8 26 6.3 8 14 24 6.7

30-34 9 6 12 5.6 13 5 24 5.8 11 8 20 5.6

35-39 4 5 10 4.7 14 6 21 5.1 8 9 14 3.9

40-44 3 15 18 8.5 16 14 31 7.5 12 12 31 8.7

45-49 8 0 11 5.2 9 16 27 6.5 18 7 24 6.7

50-54 6 0 8 3.8 9 13 22 5.3 6 6 12 3.4

55-59 4 3 11 5.2 7 8 12 2.9 6 6 18 5.0

60-64 0 5 5 2.3 6 6 12 2.9 10 11 19 5.3

65 + over 4 15 18 8.5 15 12 25 6.0 14 29 47 13.1

Total 103 109 213 100.0 202 208 414 0.0 182 179 358 100.0 Source ABS Census 2016, General Community Profile (residents). Table G07 Indigenous Status by Age & Sex

182

367

322

871

25

21

27

73

8

19

7

34

213

414

358

985

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200

Manningham

Monash

Whitehorse

Total Gateway Region

Indigenous Population 2016 - Gateway LLEN Region (Persons)

Aboriginal

Torres Strait Islander

Both Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander

Total

113

6.4.4 Special Needs Students

Special needs students can be defined as students with an identified intellectual or physical disability, but also young people who may have a diagnosed or "hidden" learning disability.

Special needs students participate in a range of Vocational Education and Training (VET) and VCAL options that enhance their senior years of schooling.

Across the Gateway LLEN Region there are five special development schools catering for young people with an identified disability.

Holmesglen TAFE offers a suite of programs for young people with a disability (including a Certificate I in Transition Education, Certificate I in Work Education, and a Foundation VCAL program).

Box Hill Institute Group (BHIG) works in partnership with Disability Service Providers to deliver interactive and engaging programs for people with disabilities, so that they can enjoy being part of the community and prepare for work or further courses. Courses provided include: Certificate I in Transition Education; Certificate I in Work Education; and Pre-Accredited Courses.71

Other ACFE providers in the region also provide supported programs for this cohort.

6.5 On Track Data - Gateway LLEN Region 2018

The On Track Survey is conducted annually by the Department of Education and Training (DET) and follows up young people in the six months after they leave school from Years 12.72 The survey collects data about their destinations, reasons for not continuing in education and training, and details on the occupations and hours worked of employed school leavers.

6.5.1 Year 12 Completers

Destinations 2018

The On Track Report 2018 from DEECD provides aggregate data for secondary schools for the Gateway LLEN Region for students completing Year 12 in 2017.73

Compared to Victoria overall, a greater proportion of Year 12 completers from the Gateway LLEN region in 2018 were in further education or training: Manningham 87.3%, Monash 89.7%, Whitehorse 81.9% compared with 75.1% for Victoria. For Victoria a higher percentage was in employment (19.8%).

Bachelor degree enrolments were Manningham 67.3%, Monash 76.5%, Whitehorse 63.1% and average for Victoria 54.9%.

Source: On Track Year 12 Completer Survey 2018 (Department of Education and Training) & MCa estimates. Post School Destinations of Year 12 or equivalent completers in 2017, Victorian schools. Table 3

71 BHI Summary Course Guide 2019 72 On Track Year 12 Completer Survey 2018 (Department of Education and Training) 73 On Track Year 12 Completer Survey 2018 (Department of Education and Training)

67.3

76.5

63.1

54.9

13.6

9.1

12.4

12.1

6.4

4.1

6.5

8.1

9.7

7.5

14.9

19.8

2.6

2.0

2.5

4.3

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

%

%

%

%

Man

nin

gha

mM

on

ash

Wh

iteh

ors

eV

icto

ria

Year 12 Completers 2017 - Enrolments/Activities 2018 (Persons % share)

Bachelor degree

VET Programs

Apprentice/Trainee

Employed

Looking for work

114

Source: On Track Year 12 Completer Survey 2018 (Department of Education and Training) & MCa estimates. Post School Destinations of Year 12 or equivalent completers in 2017, Victorian schools. Table 3.

87.3

89.7

81.9

75.1

67.3

76.5

63.1

54.9

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

%

%

%

%

Man

nin

gham

Mo

nas

hW

hit

eho

rse

Vic

tori

a

ManninghamMonashWhitehorseVictoria%%%%

In further education or training 87.389.781.975.1

Bachelor degree 67.376.563.154.9

Certificates/Diplomas 13.69.112.412.1

Certificate I to III 1.51.11.22.2

Certificate IV or higher 12.17.911.19.9

Apprentice/Trainee 6.44.16.58.1

Apprenticeship 5.03.04.65.7

Traineeship 1.51.11.92.4

Not continuing in further education ortraining

12.710.218.124.9

Employed 9.77.514.919.8

Employed full-time 3.52.84.76.8

Employed part-time 6.34.710.313

Looking for work 2.62.02.54.3

NILFET 00.70.70.8

Destination of Year 12 Students (2017) - Gateway LLEN Region LGAs & Victoria (Persons %)

115

Table 48. Destinations of Students who Exited School in 2017 – Survey Respondents (Persons no.) Post-school destination Manningham Manningham Monash Monash Whitehorse Whitehorse Victoria

no. % no. % no. % %

In further education or training 475 87.3 1412 89.7 735 81.9 75.1

Bachelor degree 366 67.3 1204 76.5 566 63.1 54.9

Certificates/Diplomas 74 13.6 143 9.1 111 12.4 12.1

Certificate I to III 8 1.5 18 1.1 11 1.2 2.2

Certificate IV or higher 66 12.1 125 7.9 100 11.1 9.9

Apprentice/Trainee 35 6.4 65 4.1 58 6.5 8.1

Apprenticeship 27 5.0 47 3.0 41 4.6 5.7

Traineeship 8 1.5 18 1.1 17 1.9 2.4

Not continuing in further education or training

69 12.7 161 10.2 162 18.1 24.9

Employed 53 9.7 118 7.5 134 14.9 19.8

Employed full-time 19 3.5 44 2.8 42 4.7 6.8

Employed part-time 34 6.3 74 4.7 92 10.3 13

Looking for work 14 2.6 32 2.0 22 2.5 4.3

NILFET np np 11 0.7 6 0.7 0.8

Total Respondents 544 100 1574 100 897 100 100

Source: On Track 2018 Survey Results. Dest inat ions o f Students who Exi ted School in 2017, Department o f Educat ion and Tra in ing (2018). Tab le 3 : Dest inat ions o f Year 12 or equ iva lent comple ters who exi ted schoo l in 2017

Gateway LLEN Region Comparisons

The following charts and tables provide estimates of total Year 12 completers. They are estimates based on applying the On Track survey percentages to data on the total number of completions in schools in the Gateway LLEN region.74

Source: On Track Year 12 Completer Survey 2018 (Department of Education and Training) & MCa estimates using - Post School Destinations of Year 12 or equivalent completers in 2017, Victorian schools, Victoria Curriculum and Assessment Authority (2018).

74 Total completions data is from Post School Destinations of Year 12 or equivalent completers in 2017, for Victorian schools, Victoria Curriculum and Assessment Authority (2018).

907

597

53

127

61

49

16

4

2449

1846

120

237

101

112

30

2

1493

933

140

189

93

110

25

3

4849

3376

313

553

255

271

71

9

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

Completed Year 12

Bachelor Enrolled

Deferred

Tafe/Vet Enrolled

Apprentice/Trainee

In Employment

Looking for Work

Other

CompletedYear 12

BachelorEnrolled

DeferredTafe/VetEnrolled

Apprentice/Trainee

InEmployment

Looking forWork

Other

Manningham 907597531276149164

Monash 24491846120237101112302

Whitehorse 149393314018993110253

Total Gateway Region 48493376313553255271719

Year 12 2017 Completers - Destinations Estimates (May 2018)

116

Source: On Track Year 12 Completer Survey 2018 (Department of Education and Training) & MCa estimates using - Post School Destinations of Year 12 or equivalent completers in 2017, Victorian schools, Victoria Curriculum and Assessment Authority (2018).

The following table from the On Track Survey shows the trend in destinations for the period from 2014-2018.

Table 49. Destinations of Year 12 or Equivalent Completers Six Months after Leaving School, 2014 to 2018

Bachelor degree

Certificates / Diplomas

Apprentice / Trainee

Employed Looking for

work NILFET

Year % % % % % %

Manningham LGA

Manningham 2014 66.8 15.1 5.6 9.5 2.6 np

Manningham 2015 67.7 14.4 5.2 9.1 3.1 np

Manningham 2016 69.4 12.4 5.9 9.7 1.7 0.9

Manningham 2017 61.1 14.7 8.4 12.4 2.9 np

Manningham 2018 67.3 13.6 6.4 9.7 2.6 np

Monash LGA

Monash 2014 77.6 9.8 3.0 6.6 2.6 0.4

Monash 2015 74.9 11.9 3.8 6.2 2.3 0.8

Monash 2016 76.7 11.0 3.5 6.0 2.3 0.4

Monash 2017 77.2 9.0 3.7 6.6 2.5 0.9

Monash 2018 76.5 9.1 4.1 7.5 2.0 0.7

Whitehorse LGA

Whitehorse 2014 62.3 15.9 5.0 11.1 4.3 1.4

Whitehorse 2015 62.0 13.1 5.9 15.1 2.4 1.5

Whitehorse 2016 65.8 12.8 6.3 12.5 1.7 0.8

Whitehorse 2017 62.4 13.9 6.1 13.3 3.3 0.8

Whitehorse 2018 63.1 12.4 6.5 14.9 2.5 0.7

65.8

5.8

14.0

6.7

5.4

1.8

0.4

75.4

4.9

9.7

4.1

4.6

1.2

0.1

62.5

9.4

12.7

6.2

7.4

1.7

0.2

69.6

6.5

11.4

5.3

5.6

1.5

0.2

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0

Bachelor Enrolled

Deferred

Tafe/Vet Enrolled

Apprentice/Trainee

In Employment

Looking for Work

Other

BachelorEnrolled

DeferredTafe/VetEnrolled

Apprentice/Trainee

InEmployment

Looking forWork

Other

Manningham 65.85.814.06.75.41.80.4

Monash 75.44.99.74.14.61.20.1

Whitehorse 62.59.412.76.27.41.70.2

Total Gateway Region 69.66.511.45.35.61.50.2

Year 12 2017 Completers - Destinations May 2018 (%)

117

Victoria

Victoria 2014 54.3 16.1 7.0 16.7 5.1 0.9

Victoria 2015 53.2 16.3 7.5 17.0 4.9 1.0

Victoria 2016 54.2 14.6 8.1 17.7 4.5 0.9

Victoria 2017 53.8 12.9 8.1 19.5 4.6 1.0

Victoria 2018 54.9 12.1 8.1 19.8 4.3 0.8

Source: On Track 2018 Survey Results. Dest inat ions o f Students who Exi ted School in 2017, Department o f Educat ion and Tra in ing (2018). Table 4: Destinations of Year 12 or equivalent completers six months after leaving school, 2014 to 2018

There are some differences in destinations between males and females. In Monash and Whitehorse a much higher percentage of female year 12 completers were undertaking a bachelor degree (Monash 81% and Whitehorse 70.9% compared with male students). A higher percentage of males were undertaking VET programs (eg. certificates or apprenticeships/traineeships).

Table 50. Year 12 2017 Completers - Destinations May 2018 by Sex (% shares)

Bachelor degree

Certificates/ Diplomas


Employed Looking for

work NILFET Unknown

% % % % % % %

Manningham

Females 67.1 13.5 2.4 12.6 3.9 0.5

Males 67.4 13.6 8.9 8.0 1.8 0.3

Monash Females 81.2 7.2 2.3 7.8 1.1 0.3 0.1

Males 72.4 10.7 5.7 7.3 2.9 1.1

Whitehorse Females 70.9 10.0 4.3 13.3 1.3 0.2

Males 51.6 15.9 9.6 17.3 4.1 1.4

Source: On Track 2018 Survey Results. Dest inat ions o f Students who Exi ted School in 2017, Department o f Educat ion and Tra in ing (2018).

The major fields of study were: health; management and commerce; society and culture; natural and physical sciences; and creative arts.

Table 51. Field of Study of Year 12 2017 Completers – Gateway LLEN Region LGAs & Victoria Manningham Manningham Monash Monash Whitehorse Whitehorse Victoria

Field of study No. % No. % No. % %

Agriculture, environmental and related studies 6 1.4 7 0.5 13 1.9 1.5

Architecture and building 19 4.3 39 2.9 22 3.3 3

Creative arts 45 10.3 126 9.4 102 15.1 12.3

Education 15 3.4 58 4.3 26 3.8 5.7

Engineering and related technologies 52 11.9 159 11.8 59 8.7 7.6

Food, hospitality and personal services np np 6 0.4 6 0.9 1.1

Health 79 18.0 246 18.3 127 18.8 19.4

Information technology 23 5.3 71 5.3 20 3 4.1

Management and commerce 76 17.4 277 20.6 112 16.6 16.4

Mixed field programmes np np np np np np 0.3

Natural and physical sciences 66 15.1 198 14.7 93 13.8 13.3

Society and culture 54 12.3 154 11.4 92 13.6 14.8

Total respondents in campus based study 438 100 1346 100 676 100 100

Source: On Track 2018 Survey Results. Dest inat ions o f Students who Exi ted School in 2017, Department o f Educat ion and Tra in ing (2018). Note: Year 12 or equivalent completers who deferred a place in a tertiary-level program are not included. Table 10 Main field of study of Year 12 or equivalent completers enrolled in campus-based study.

118

6.5.2 Early School Leavers

Most early leavers left school in Year 11 in 2018 – Manningham 54.5% of early leavers; Monash 48.4%; Whitehorse 48.9%; and Victoria 47.4%. There was also a significant percentage that left during year 12: Manningham 40.9% of early leavers; Monash 32.3%; Whitehorse 35.6%; and Victoria 34.6%.

• Many of these early school leavers were undertaking VET programs or had taken up an

apprenticeship or traineeship – in Manningham 59.1% were in this category; Monash 67.7%

and Whitehorse 60.0% (compared with an average of 52.6% for Victoria).

• Of the early leavers, 22.7% in Manningham were in employment, Monash 25.8%, Whitehorse

22.2% and Victoria 27.5%. Many of these are likely to be employed part-time.

Early school leavers taking up apprenticeships or traineeships is a desirable transition outcome as they are developing jobs skills and many go into occupations in skills shortage. However, for other early school leavers it is an undesirable transition outcome as these young people are most likely to be working in low skill jobs, which offer limited prospects for skills development (or they will remain unemployed).

Table 52. Early School Leavers – Year Exited School (% Share) Non Completers Year 12 Exited School

Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 Year 12

Year % % % %

Manningham LGA

Manningham 2014 11.1 55.6 33.3

Manningham 2015 15.4 61.5 23.1

Manningham 2016 6.7 6.7 46.7 40.0

Manningham 2017 11.8 64.7 23.5

Manningham 2018 4.5 54.5 40.9

Monash LGA

Monash 2014 23.8 42.9 33.3

Monash 2015 15.9 57.1 27

Monash 2016 19.6 54.3 26.1

Monash 2017 23.1 61.5 15.4

Monash 2018 19.4 48.4 32.3

Whitehorse LGA

Whitehorse 2014 18.1 46.8 35.1

Whitehorse 2015 7.9 60.7 31.5

Whitehorse 2016 19.3 60.2 20.5

Whitehorse 2017 6.7 68.3 25.0

Whitehorse (C) 2018 15.6 48.9 35.6

Victoria

Victoria 2014 1.0 18.6 45.4 35.0

Victoria 2015 1.6 15.7 48.3 34.4

Victoria 2016 1.5 15.4 48.6 34.6

Victoria 2017 1.2 16.8 44.9 37.1

Victoria 2018 1.1 17.1 47.2 34.6

Source: On Track 2018 Survey Results. Dest inat ions o f Students who Exi ted School in 2017, Department o f Educat ion and Tra in ing (2018). Table 27: Year level studying when left school, Year 12 non-completers

119

Table 53. Post School Destination in 2018 of Early Leavers Gateway LLEN Region LGAs & Victoria Non Year 12 Completers Manningham Manningham Monash Monash Whitehorse Whitehorse Victoria

Post-school destination no. % no. % no. % %

In further education or training 13 59.1 21 67.7 27 60.0 52.6

Bachelor degree np np np np 0.9

Certificates/Diplomas 10 45.5 11 35.5 10 22.2 19.5

Certificate I to III np np 6 19.4 np np 11.6

Certificate IV or higher 6 27.3 5 16.1 7 15.6 8.0

Apprentice/Trainee np np 9 29.0 17 37.8 32.1

Apprenticeship np np 7 22.6 16 35.6 28.5

Traineeship np np np np 3.6

Not continuing in further education or training

9 40.9 10 32.3 18 40.0 47.3

Employed 5 22.7 8 25.8 10 22.2 27.5

Employed full-time np np np np np np 11.2

Employed part-time np np np np 6 13.3 16.3

Looking for work np np np np 7 15.6 15.0

NILFET np np np np 4.8

Unknown 0.1

Total respondents 22 100 31 100 45 100 100

Source: On Track 2018 Survey Results. Dest inat ions o f Students who Exi ted School in 2017, Department o f Educat ion and Tra in ing (2018). Table 23: Post-school destinations of Year 12 non-completers who exited school in 2017. Note: NILFET = Not in the labour force, employment or training.

Table 54. Year 12 Non Completers – Year Left School Non Completers Year 12

Exited School Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 Year 12

Year % % % %

Manningham LGA

Manningham 2014 11.1 55.6 33.3

Manningham 2015 15.4 61.5 23.1

Manningham 2016 6.7 6.7 46.7 40.0

Manningham 2017 11.8 64.7 23.5

Manningham 2018 4.5 54.5 40.9

Monash LGA

Monash 2014 23.8 42.9 33.3

Monash 2015 15.9 57.1 27

Monash 2016 19.6 54.3 26.1

Monash 2017 23.1 61.5 15.4

Monash 2018 19.4 48.4 32.3

Whitehorse LGA

Whitehorse 2014 18.1 46.8 35.1

Whitehorse 2015 7.9 60.7 31.5

Whitehorse 2016 19.3 60.2 20.5

Whitehorse 2017 6.7 68.3 25.0

Whitehorse (C) 2018 15.6 48.9 35.6

Victoria

Victoria 2014 1.0 18.6 45.4 35.0

Victoria 2015 1.6 15.7 48.3 34.4

Victoria 2016 1.5 15.4 48.6 34.6

Victoria 2017 1.2 16.8 44.9 37.1

Victoria 2018 1.1 17.1 47.2 34.6

Source: On Track 2018 Survey Results. Dest inat ions o f Students who Exi ted School in 2017, Department o f Educat ion and Tra in ing (2018). Table 27: Year level studying when left school, Year 12 non-completers

120

6.5.3 Careers Advice

The following table shows career advice activity used by young people in the region. In general year 12 completers were more likely to access career advice activities than the early leavers. The early leavers were more likely to have attended a TAFE information session. This is consistent with the survey data showing that a significant percentage of the early leavers, had taken up a VET program including apprenticeships.

Table 55. Careers Advice Activity Year 12 Completers and Non-Completers – 2017 (% of survey respondents) Manningham Manningham Monash Monash Whitehorse Whitehorse

Career Advice Activity Year 12 or equivalent completers

Year 12 non-completers

Year 12 or equivalent completers

Year 12 non-

completers

Year 12 or equivalent completers

Year 12 non-

completers % % % % % % Identify careers that match your interests and abilities

77.1 63.6 76.8 66.7 78.7 55.8

Have a one-on-one talk with the school’s career advisor

88.7 63.6 88.2 66.7 85.4 69.8

Attend a talk from the school’s career advisor

64.8 45.5 59.6 36.7 62.2 32.6

Receive written material about career and study options

80.6 63.6 83.7 63.3 81.3 53.5

Search on-line for career options at school

82.1 63.6 81.8 60.0 78.9 53.5

Attend a Careers Expo organised by school

71.0 50.0 64.2 43.3 53.6 27.9

Attend a university information session organised by school

66.6 59.1 66.4 43.3 58.6 23.3

Attend a TAFE information session organised by school

22.3 50.0 15.0 26.7 16.3 46.5

Attend an employer presentation organised by school

33.4 36.4 34.9 30.0 29.8 20.9

Attend work experience or a workplace learning program

83.9 81.8 81.4 66.7 77.9 74.4

Prepare a career action plan 52.4 54.5 59.5 50.0 46.6 41.9

Source: On Track 2018 Survey Results. Dest inat ions o f Students who Exi ted School in 2017, Department o f Educat ion and Tra in ing (2018). Table 30: Career advice activities participated in while at school, by 2017 school leaver

6.5.4 Post School Enrolments

The On Track Survey 2018 for Manningham, Monash and Whitehorse LGAs provides destination data for Year 12 completes (2017) for those undertaking campus based learning).

Monash LGA had the highest number of bachelor degree enrolments in the On Track Survey at 1426 or 58%, Whitehorse had 609 or 25% and Manningham 407 or 17%.

The top 4 universities of enrolment across the three LGAs were Monash University, Deakin University, Melbourne University and RMIT University.

For TAFE , the major ones were : RMIT ; Swinburne; Holmesglen and Box Hill

University/TAFE selections are influenced by courses and location and accessibility by transport. The 3 LGAs have good access to all metropolitan universities.

121

Table 56. Institutes that Year 12 Completers are Studying at 2018 – Gateway LLEN LGAs


completers in campus-based

study



study



study



study



study



study


Institution no. % no. % no. %

UNIVERSITY

Australian Catholic University 17 4 40 3 26 4

Charles Sturt University

Deakin University 66 15.4 237 17.9 137 20.9

Federation University (formerly Ballarat University)

11 0.8 5 0.8

La Trobe University 41 9.6 29 2.2 26 4

Melbourne University 60 14 161 12.2 102 15.6

Monash University 89 20.7 527 39.9 154 23.5

RMIT University 54 12.6 122 9.2 61 9.3

Swinburne University 62 14.5 72 5.5 68 10.4

Victoria University 5 1.2 20 1.5 8 1.2

Interstate Universities 5 1.2 31 2.3 17 2.6

Other Universities np np 7 0.5 np np

TAFE / VET

Bendigo Regional Institute of TAFE

Box Hill Institute of TAFE np np 6 0.5 14 2.1

Chisholm Institute of TAFE 5 0.4 np np

Federation Training (formerly Advance TAFE)

Federation Training (formerly Central Gippsland TAFE)

Federation University - TAFE Division (formerly Ballarat University - TAFE Division)

Gordon Institute

Goulburn Ovens Institute of TAFE

Holmesglen Institute 5 1.2 15 1.1 6 0.9

Kangan Batman Institute of TAFE np np np np

Melbourne University (TAFE Division/ILFR)

Melbourne Polytechnic np np np np

RMIT (TAFE Division) 6 1.4 18 1.4 6 0.9

South West Institute of TAFE

Sunraysia Institute of TAFE

Swinburne (TAFE Division) 11 2.6 17 1.3 12 1.8

Victoria University (TAFE Division) np np np np np np

William Angliss Institute of TAFE np np np np np np

Wodonga Institute of TAFE

Other TAFE np np

Total respondents in campus- based study

429 100 1321 100 655 100

Source: On Track 2018 Survey Results. Dest inat ions o f S tudents who Exi ted School in 2017, Department o f Educat ion and Tra in ing (2018). Table 9: Year 12 or equivalent completers who were enrolled in campus based tertiary study in 2018

Key Issues • The 2018 On Track data indicates a high proportion of early school leavers in the Gateway Region are in employment or

looking for work (around 22-26% employed and around 16-`18% looking for work.75

• Early school leavers in employment or looking for work are not desired transition outcomes in the long term because these young people are most likely working in low skill jobs or accessing welfare.

• Young people with low skills are more vulnerable as the global competition shifts the location of these lower skill jobs and more jobs require some qualifications and skills.

75 On Track 2018 Survey Results. Dest inat ions o f Students who Exi ted School in 2017, Department o f Educat ion and Tra in ing (2018). Table 23: Post-school destinations of Year 12 non-completers who exited school in 2017. Note: NILFET = Not in the labour force, employment or training.

122

7 Employment of Young People

7.1 Employment in Gateway LLEN Region

The table below shows the industry of employment of young persons (employed residents aged 15-19 and 20-24)

• Employed residents aged 15-19 years are concentrated in 2 sectors– retail trade and accommodation and food service (around 60+%). Many would be students working part-time while at school or further education.

• Employed residents aged 20-24 years, while still concentrated in 2 sectors – retail trade and accommodation and food service (around 37%) are employed in a broader range of sectors, including health, professional services, construction, and education. This broader distribution reflects young people who have completed their further education and are taking up jobs in fields they have trained in.

Table 57. Employed Resident – Young Persons and Total - 2016 (persons)

Employed Young

Persons

Total Employed Residents % Share

15-19 20-24 Total 15-24 15-19 20-24 Total 15-24

Manningham 2,344 4,748 7,092 52,818 4.4 9.0 13.4

Monash 3,184 8,134 11,318 80,373 4.0 10.1 14.1

Whitehorse 3,368 7,158 10,526 74,705 4.5 9.6 14.1

Total Persons 8,896 20,040 28,936 207,896 4.3 9.6 13.9

Source: ABS Census 2016, General Community Profile, Table G51 Industry of Employment by Age by Sex

Table 58. Employment of Residents Young People by Industry – Gateway LLEN Region LGAs – 2016 (persons ) Persons Manningham Monash Whitehorse

15-19 20-24 15-19 20-24 15-19 20-24 15-19 20-24 15-19 20-24 15-19 20-24

no. no. % % no. no. % % no. no. % %


0 17 0.0 0.4

4 10 0.1 0.1

4 24 0.1 0.3

Mining 0 4 0.0 0.1 0 0 0.0 0.0 0 6 0.0 0.1

Manufacturing 87 140 3.7 2.9 139 297 4.4 3.7 135 249 4.0 3.5


3 17 0.1 0.4

3 32 0.1 0.4

0 30 0.0 0.4

Construction 112 370 4.8 7.8 63 439 2.0 5.4 118 459 3.5 6.4

Wholesale Trade 29 135 1.2 2.8 35 211 1.1 2.6 52 168 1.5 2.3

Retail Trade 790 1,188 33.7 25.0 952 1,711 29.9 21.0 928 1,537 27.6 21.5


717 612 30.6 12.9

1,048 1,299 32.9 16.0

1,153 1,207 34.2 16.9


14 64 0.6 1.3

25 170 0.8 2.1

27 134 0.8 1.9


32 88 1.4 1.9

42 140 1.3 1.7

55 152 1.6 2.1


16 163 0.7 3.4

23 258 0.7 3.2

14 187 0.4 2.6


8 93 0.3 2.0

14 130 0.4 1.6

15 105 0.4 1.5


39 393 1.7 8.3

63 595 2.0 7.3

62 527 1.8 7.4


28 139 1.2 2.9

38 299 1.2 3.7

47 278 1.4 3.9


7 89 0.3 1.9

15 178 0.5 2.2

13 123 0.4 1.7

Education and Training 145 320 6.2 6.7 259 696 8.1 8.6 220 513 6.5 7.2


62 393 2.6 8.3

97 709 3.0 8.7

92 648 2.7 9.1

Arts and Recreation Services 131 166 5.6 3.5 195 287 6.1 3.5 270 269 8.0 3.8

Other Services 55 151 2.3 3.2 57 270 1.8 3.3 66 277 2.0 3.9


60 202 2.6 4.3

108 392 3.4 4.8

97 275 2.9 3.8

Total 2,344 4,748 100 100.0 3,184 8,134 100.0 100.0 3,368 7,158 100.0 100.0


The retail , food service and construction sectors are large employing sectors of young people in all LGAs. Young people

have also secure jobs in professional services, education and health services.

123

7.2 Manningham LGA

The chart below shows the structure of employment for young people (15-24 years), who are residents in Manningham in 2016. There were 7092 young people from Manningham employed at the 2016 Census, accounting for 13.4%% of the LGA’s total residents in employment.

The most popular industries among young people in Manningham in the 15-19 year group were Retail, Accommodation and Food Services and Construction. Many of jobs in Retail and Accommodation and Food Service are likely to be part time (eg. retail, fast food, cafes) and many students will be working while completing their secondary and tertiary education.

In the 20-24 year age group Construction and Retail were the main employing industries. Retail was the largest with 1188 employed persons or 25% of jobs held by residents in the 20-24 year age group. Major retail centres are Westfield Doncaster and other retail hubs in the LGA. Construction accounted for 370 or 7.8% of employed young people in this age group.

It is likely that regional residential construction activity over the past five years has attracted increasing numbers of young

people into the construction industry.


0

0

87

3

112

29

790

717

14

32

16

8

39

28

7

145

62

131

55

60

17

4

140

17

370

135

1,188

612

64

88

163

93

393

139

89

320

393

166

151

202

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400


Mining

Manufacturing


Construction

Wholesale Trade

Retail Trade












Other Services


Employed Residents - Young Persons Manningham LGA 2016 (no.)

15-19 Manningham no.

20-24 Manningham no.

124


0.0

0.0

3.7

0.1

4.8

1.2

33.7

30.6

0.6

1.4

0.7

0.3

1.7

1.2

0.3

6.2

2.6

5.6

2.3

2.6

0.4

0.1

2.9

0.4

7.8

2.8

25.0

12.9

1.3

1.9

3.4

2.0

8.3

2.9

1.9

6.7

8.3

3.5

3.2

4.3

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0


Mining

Manufacturing


Construction

Wholesale Trade

Retail Trade












Other Services


Employed Residents - Young Persons Manningham LGA 2016 (% share)

15-19 Manningham %

20-24 Manningham %

125

7.3 Monash LGA

The structure of employment for young people (15-24 years) in Monash at the 2016 Census is shown below. There were 11,318 young people from Monash employed, accounting for 14.1% of the LGA’s employed residents.

The major industries of employment of young people in the 15-19 year age group in Monash were the same as Manningham: Retail, Accommodation and Food Services and Construction.

In the 20-24 year age group retail; accommodation and food services; and construction were also the main employing industries. There were also a significant number in professional services, education and health services (reflecting young people who had completed their education and were moving into professional and para professional jobs).

Retail was the largest industry of employment with 1711 persons or 21% of employed residents in the 20-24 year age group. Monash has a number of major retail hubs. Accommodation and Food Services accounted for 1219 jobs or 16.0%, and Construction was a significant employer accounting for about 439 jobs or 3.7% of employed residents in this age group.


4

0

139

3

63

35

952

1,048

25

42

23

14

63

38

15

259

97

195

57

108

10

0

297

32

439

211

1,711

1,299

170

140

258

130

595

299

178

696

709

287

270

392

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800


Mining

Manufacturing


Construction

Wholesale Trade

Retail Trade












Other Services


Employed Residents - Young Persons Monash LGA 2016 (no.)

15-19 Monash no.

20-24 Monash no.

126


7.4 Whitehorse LGA

The industries of employment for young people (15-24 years) in Whitehorse are shown below. There were 10,526 young people (15-24 years) from Whitehorse in employment, accounting for 14.1% of the LGA’s employed residents.

As with Manningham and Monash, the major employing industries of the 15-19 year group were Retail, Accommodation and Food Services and Construction. For this age group most of the jobs in Retail and Accommodation and Food Service are likely to be part time while young people complete their complete their studies. These jobs are mostly low skilled jobs.

In the 20-24 year age group retail (1537), food service (1207), health (648), professional services (527) were the main employing industries for these young people.

0.1

0.0

4.4

0.1

2.0

1.1

29.9

32.9

0.8

1.3

0.7

0.4

2.0

1.2

0.5

8.1

3.0

6.1

1.8

3.4

0.1

0.0

3.7

0.4

5.4

2.6

21.0

16.0

2.1

1.7

3.2

1.6

7.3

3.7

2.2

8.6

8.7

3.5

3.3

4.8

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0


Mining

Manufacturing


Construction

Wholesale Trade

Retail Trade












Other Services


Employed Residents - Young Persons Monash LGA 2016 (% share)

15-19 Monash %

20-24 Monash %

127


4

0

135

0

118

52

928

1,153

27

55

14

15

62

47

13

220

92

270

66

97

24

6

249

30

459

168

1,537

1,207

134

152

187

105

527

278

123

513

648

269

277

275

0 200 400 600 800 1,0001,2001,4001,6001,800


Mining

Manufacturing


Construction

Wholesale Trade

Retail Trade












Other Services


Employed Residents - Young Persons Whitehorse LGA 2016 (no.)

15-19 Whitehorse no.

20-24 Whitehorse no.

128


Key Issues • Young people 15-19 years are concentrated in retail and in food service jobs. Many are working part time, while completing

their education. These sectors are important as they provide entry level jobs for young people.

• Young people 20-24 years have a broader spread jobs as they move into full time employment after completing post school qualifications. Professional and para-professional jobs are in professional and technical services, health services and education and training.

• Young people operate in wider labour markets. There is a need to equip young people for job opportunities, across the broader Melbourne metropolitan region and nationally by encouraging the pursuit of higher level qualifications in knowledge based and trade skills based sectors.

• Young people with limited education and qualifications will continue to struggle in a labour market, where the skill and experience levels of jobs are increasing.

0.1

0.0

4.0

0.0

3.5

1.5

27.6

34.2

0.8

1.6

0.4

0.4

1.8

1.4

0.4

6.5

2.7

8.0

2.0

2.9

0.3

0.1

3.5

0.4

6.4

2.3

21.5

16.9

1.9

2.1

2.6

1.5

7.4

3.9

1.7

7.2

9.1

3.8

3.9

3.8

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0


Mining

Manufacturing


Construction

Wholesale Trade

Retail Trade












Other Services


Employed Residents - Young Persons Whitehorse LGA 2016 (% share)

15-19 Whitehorse %

20-24 Whitehorse %

129

References

ABS 2011 Census of Population and Housing, Basic Community Profile (Catalogue no. 2001.0), Manningham, Monash and Whitehorse LGAs. (Resident Population)

ABS 2011 Census of Population and Housing, Working Population Profile (Catalogue no.2006.0), Manningham, Monash and Whitehorse LGAs. (Based on Place of Work)

ABS 2016 Census of Population and Housing, General Community Profile (Catalogue no. 2001.0), Manningham, Monash and Whitehorse LGAs. (Resident Population)

ABS 2016 Census of Population and Housing, Working Population Profile (Catalogue no. 2006.0), Manningham, Monash and Whitehorse LGAs. (Based on Place of Work)

ABS Labour Force, Australia, Table 5. Labour force status by Sex, Victoria, November 2018

ABS, Regional Profiles by LGA, November 2018. Manningham, Monash and Whitehorse LGAs

Australian Jobs 2018, Department of Jobs and Small Business June 2018

Id. data Community Profile (November 2018). Manningham, Monash and Whitehorse LGAs

https://profile.id.com.au/manningham;https://profile.id.com.au/monash/;

https://profile.id.com.au/whitehorse/

Monash Economic Development Strategy and Action Plan 2013 – 2017, Monash City Council

On Track Year 12 Completer Survey 2018 (Department of Education and Training). Manningham, Monash and Whitehorse LGAs

Population forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id data, November 2017. Manningham, Monash and Whitehorse LGAs

Rating Summary – Labour Market Analysis of Skilled Occupations, Department of Jobs and Small Business, June 2018

Small Area Labour Markets-June 2018, Department of Jobs & Small Business (September 2018 - Smoothed Unemployment no.)


Senior Secondary Completion and Achievement Information, 2018, Victorian Curriculum and Assessment Authority (2018)

https://profile.id.com.au/manningham



130

Appendix A: Gateway LLEN Region Schools – On Track Survey Data 2018

VCAA CODE School Name Sector Locality

Total Completed

Year 12

On Track Consenters

On Track Survey Data 2018 **

On Track Respondents*

In Education And Training - May 2018 Not In Education And Training - May 2018

Bachelor Enrolled

Deferred Tafe / Vet Enrolled


Employed Looking For

Work Other^

(no.) (no.) (no.) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Manningham

01253 Doncaster Secondary College G Doncaster

197 151 95 67% 7% 11% 5% 7% 1% 1%

01571 Donvale Christian College I

Donvale - Park Orchards

111 87 65 72% 5% 14% 2% 6% 2% 0%

01304 East Doncaster Secondary College G Doncaster East

240 228 178 79% 2% 12% 2% 4% 1% 0%

01268 Marcellin College C Bulleen 207 201 126 63% 6% 14% 13% 2% 2% 0%

01550 Templestowe College G Templestowe Lower

80 43 32 38% 13% 25% 9% 16% 0% 0%

01526 Warrandyte High School G Warrandyte - Wonga Park

72 59 36 47% 8% 17% 11% 3% 11% 3%

Total 907 769 532

Monash

01337 Ashwood High School G Ashwood - Chadstone

48 37 26 46% 12% 15% 8% 19% 0% 0%

01197 Avila College C Mount Waverley - North

169 133 83 82% 4% 6% 4% 2% 2% 0%

01187 Brentwood Secondary College G

Glen Waverley - East

214 130 95 78% 5% 9% 0% 6% 1% 0%

01629 Caulfield Grammar School I Wheelers Hill

170 152 116 79% 8% 3% 5% 5% 0% 0%

01103 Glen Waverley Secondary College G

Glen Waverley - West

347 329 238 81% 3% 10% 3% 3% 1% 0%

01157 Highvale Secondary College G

Glen Waverley - East

163 106 64 72% 8% 9% 3% 8% 0% 0%

01474 Huntingtower School I Mount Waverley - South

82 73 53 89% 4% 4% 4% 0% 0% 0%

01218 Mazenod College C Mulgrave 202 202 122 73% 3% 8% 11% 4% 0% 1%

01383 Mount Waverley Secondary College G

Mount Waverley - North

270 161 125 71% 4% 15% 3% 5% 2% 0%

01078 Sacred Heart Girls' College C Hughesdale

158 119 95 86% 5% 5% 1% 1% 1% 0%

01026 Salesian College C Ashwood - Chadstone

160 104 74 65% 8% 15% 7% 4% 1% 0%

01509 Wellington Secondary College G Mulgrave

257 227 177 71% 2% 12% 6% 3% 5% 0%

131

VCAA CODE School Name Sector Locality

Total Completed

Year 12

On Track Consenters

On Track Survey Data 2018 **

On Track Respondents*

In Education And Training - May 2018 Not In Education And Training - May 2018

Bachelor Enrolled

Deferred Tafe / Vet Enrolled


Employed Looking For

Work Other^

(no.) (no.) (no.) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)

01816 Wesley College I Glen Waverley - West

145 125 74 81% 5% 7% 4% 3% 0% 0%

01579 Wheelers Hill Secondary College G Wheelers Hill

64 58 44 52% 9% 18% 2% 16% 2% 0%

Total 2449 1956 1386 Whitehorse 01499 Blackburn High School G Blackburn 139 110 85 62% 8% 8% 9% 11% 1% 0%

01289 Box Hill High School G Box Hill 207 150 108 59% 8% 16% 8% 4% 5% 0%

01639 Box Hill Senior Secondary College G Box Hill North

125 92 47 19% 9% 34% 13% 21% 4% 0%

01410 Emmaus College C Vermont South 184 155 96 61% 10% 14% 4% 10% 0% 0%

01398 Forest Hill College G Burwood East 80 60 47 45% 13% 21% 9% 9% 4% 0%

01059 Kingswood College I Box Hill 66 64 51 61% 20% 4% 6% 10% 0% 0%

01485 Mount Scopus Memorial College I Burwood

97 74 38 71% 18% 5% 3% 3% 0% 0%

01656 Mullauna Secondary College G Mitcham (Vic.)

63 50 40 50% 15% 18% 8% 5% 5% 0%

01745 Nunawading Christian College-Secondary I Nunawading

31 24 20 75% 0% 20% 5% 0% 0% 0%

01274 Our Lady Of Sion College C Box Hill

134 109 69 83% 6% 6% 0% 6% 0% 0%

01072 Presbyterian Ladies' College I Burwood

183 167 120 93% 1% 4% 2% 0% 0% 0%

01193 Vermont Secondary College G Vermont

184 149 111 58% 12% 11% 9% 8% 1% 2%

Total 1493 1204 832 Source: On Track Year 12 completer survey 2018 (Department of Education and Training) & MCa estimates. Post School Destinations of Year 12 or equivalent completers in 2017, Victorian schools

132

Appendix B: School Programs and Achievement Data

School Identification School Programs Student Cohort Student Achievement

School Locality

Number of VCE

studies at unit 3-4

level taken up by

students in 2018

Number of VET

certificates with 2018

enrolments

Availability of

International

Baccalaureate

(Diploma)

Number of students

enrolled in at least one VCE unit at level 3-4 in

2018

Number of students

enrolled in a VET

certificate in 2018

Number of students

enrolled in VCAL in

2018

Percentage of VCE

students applying

for tertiary places

Percentage of

satisfactory VCE

completions in 2018

Number of students awarded the VCE

(Baccalaureate)

Percentage of VET units of

competency

completed in 2018

Percentage of VCAL

units completed

in 2018

Median VCE study

score

Percentage of study scores of

40 and over

Manningham LGA Doncaster Secondary College Doncaster 57 26 353 43 33 84.1 100 19 78 92 29 5.3

Donvale Christian College Donvale 40 10 176 23 0.00 90.7 100 14 92 - 33 11.1

East Doncaster Sec College Doncaster East 60 38 394 71 23 98.0 99 35 100 95 32 9.0

Marcellin College Bulleen 46 22 312 170 29 93.2 100 12 98 93 30 8.1

Templestowe College Templestowe Lower 58 26 293 96 39 57.7 93 1 83 58 28 3.5

Warrandyte High School Warrandyte 37 21 115 45 4.00 74.5 96 0.00 78 I/D 28 2.7

Whitefriars College Donvale 45 20 307 113 33 86.8 98 7 96 98 30 4.5

Total 343 163 1950 561 161 88 Monash LGA Ashwood High School Ashwood 35 12 50 17 12 94.30 100 4 98 94 29 3.9

Avila College Mount Waverley 41 11 238 17 19 92.70 99 20 88 92 32 9.1

Brentwood Secondary College Glen Waverley 45 6 391 26 0 97.70 99 25 56 - 30 8.3

Caulfield Grammar School Wheelers Hill 39 7 272 48 0 96.5 100 38 96 - 35 24.0

Glen Waverley Sec College Glen Waverley 66 23 609 86 0 95.8 100 87 94 - 33 15.0

Highvale Secondary College Glen Waverley 34 2 220 4 0 85.7 97 20 I/D - 31 7.8

Huntingtower School Mount Waverley 36 5 174 5 0 100.0 100 17 100 - 37 33.9

Mazenod College Mulgrave 43 16 339 195 29 96.7 100 22 96 95 32 12.7

Mount Waverley Sec College Mount Waverley 52 12 482 39 0 96.0 98 44 97 - 31 7.2

Sacred Heart Girls' College Hughesdale 45 13 243 30 0 98.2 100 13 93 - 32 10.9

Salesian College Chadstone 42 11 214 62 19 89.2 99 10 94 99 31 6.4

South Oakleigh Sec College Oakleigh South 30 1 100 15 0 85 95 0 77 - 29 2.8

Wellington Secondary College Mulgrave 54 20 442 60 34 95.6 100 20 98 100 29 4.9

Wesley College Glen Waverley 35 4 Y 120 15 0.0 98.8 100 10 97 - 32 8.7

Wheelers Hill Sec College Wheelers Hill 37 15 122 23 0.0 72.3 98 4 73 - 26 1.4

Total 513 129 3337 582 82 285

133

School Identification School Programs Student Cohort Student Achievement

School Locality

Number of VCE

studies at unit 3-4

level taken up by

students in 2018

Number of VET

certificates with 2018

enrolments

Availability of

International

Baccalaureate

(Diploma)

Number of students

enrolled in at least one VCE unit at level 3-4 in

2018

Number of students

enrolled in a VET

certificate in 2018

Number of students

enrolled in VCAL in

2018

Percentage of VCE

students applying

for tertiary places

Percentage of

satisfactory VCE

completions in 2018

Number of students awarded the VCE

(Baccalaureate)

Percentage of VET units of

competency

completed in 2018

Percentage of VCAL

units completed

in 2018

Median VCE study

score

Percentage of study scores of

40 and over

Whitehorse LGA Blackburn High School Blackburn 63 18 263 32 4 85.90 98 15 77 I/D 29 6.5

Box Hill High School Box Hill 58 23 389 69 0 93.90 100 41 77 - 34 16.1

Box Hill Institute Box Hill 33 32 110 146 264 - - 0.0 77 50 - -

Box Hill Senior Sec College Mont Albert North 40 19 216 135 19 71.70 98 1 73 93 26 1.9

Emmaus College Vermont South 57 30 303 47 19 88.10 99 9 91 94 31 7.2

Forest Hill College Burwood East 35 8 144 48 0 93.80 96 2 88 - 26 2.6

Kingswood College Box Hill 33 10 67 79 0 87.80 100 5 100 - 32 8.9

Koonung Secondary College Mont Albert North 49 19 0.00 240 36 0 90.70 99 23 92 - 32 10.8

Mount Scopus Memorial College Burwood 40 15 207 182 0 98.00 100 4 97 - 36 29.1

Mullauna College Mitcham 29 8 99 16 4.00 84.70 100 0 83 I/D 30 5.2

Nunawading Christian College Nunawading 17 2 40 4 0 96 100 0 I/D - 32 11.1

Our Lady of Sion College Box Hill 38 10 208 22 10 97.10 100 20 93 78 33 12.7

Presbyterian Ladies' College Burwood 36 2 Y 239 4 0 100.00 100 64 I/D - 36 31.7

Vermont Secondary College Vermont 55 26 348 57 5 92.20 100 18 100 46 31 8.9

Total 583 222 2873 877 325 202 Source: Senior Secondary Completion and Achievement Information, 2018, Victorian Curriculum and Assessment Authority (2018)

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